WW CVII: Restless Nights in Sleepy Hollow - Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So I would think the wolves would have wanted to wait at least a little bit to see if anyone else would vote for an innocent so that they could just jump on board. As soon as Sally voted for Inzil they would have just needed one ordo to go alone with that and the other 2 wolves could have jumped on. Rikae therefore looks really good here, I think a wolf would have waited until at least 2 or 3 people had voted before jumping on.

Wolves would have probably wanted to wait a bit longer, which I guess makes Nerwen and I perhaps the most suspicious, and then Greenie is just nicely in the middle, but by the time she voted it would have been quite unlikely for the wolves to get enough votes, so I say she looks quite good just based on that.

I agree that Rikae's is the best-looking vote - although I think she'd be capable of bussing a fellow in a situation like yesterDay's. I do think Nerwen's vote looks sketchy; yours doesn't really, since this whole "Inzil votes first" -thing was your idea in the first place. Although I think it's interesting that you mention that your own vote looks suspicious.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Shasta right now looks the most suspicious to me, if he was an ordo I would think he'd have a better understanding of how the innocents needed to vote together, so the fact that he voted differently is really concerning. Really to me it looks like either a villager who didn't seem to understand what we were trying to accomplish, or perhaps he figured Sally was going to get the votes anyway so he could throw his away for whatever reason. Also could be a wolf who didn't seem to foresee that this vote would make him look bad, and again just tossed away his vote. The whole thing is weird and kind of makes little sense either way.

Again, agreed. His reluctance to vote for Sally does look bad, especially when coupled with his queries about how likely it was that Inzil was a dreamed ordo. It looked almost like he was probing the possibility of getting someone to follow Sally's Inzil-vote with him. Then again, it would be really risky to so openly swim against the current, especially after it was obvious that Sally was going to get killed. I'm not sure if Shastawolf would do that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I disagree entirely that Rikae's vote looks the best, but maybe I'm just paranoid. Sally was obviously a sacrifice, if you look back at yesterday's votes - there was never any real opposition to her lynch, considering the likelihood that Inzil was a dreamt ordo. In fact, I'm the only person that didn't vote her.

Even if we did manage to lynch a wolf, we were always going to be in the position of "if an innocent votes an innocent, we lose". Obviously, the wolves knew that. In light of that fact, sacrificing one wolf yesterday in order to look too good to lynch today really isn't that bad a play - especially since Inzil ended up voting a wolf. Once that happened, the other wolves had no reason not to hop on the bus and run Sally over - and in fact, had every reason to do such.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In fact, Wilwa, Greenie - why, exactly, does my reluctance to vote Sally yesterday look bad? As I recall, the reason for voting Sally yesterday was basically a blanket "well, Inzil voted her, and we don't want to vote Inzil because he's our only other option", not that Sally was in and of herself suspicious. Plus, as I already pointed out, the wolves yesterday would have been perfectly fine with voting off Sally, since they're in the same almost-win situation today that they were yesterday.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

but, the way Rikae was pretty passionate at the end of the Day yesterday looked like a very anxious innocent to me

What reason would an innocent Rikae have had to be anxious yesterDay? Sally was already being lynched.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Because if seers mean anything at all, Inzil is innocent, and therefore a wrong vote from him would have doomed us already. Because if Inzil is right, we'll be in the same situation toMorrow, and I don't wish to create more confusion.
There is no innocent reason to wait around hoping for something better (as you apparently did).

Inzil being innocent doesn't necessarily translate to Inzil being right. Yes, he did end up voting for a wolf, but there was no way to be 100% certain at the time. Again, there were virtually no actual arguments for lynching Sally yesterday - she was pretty much voted for because Inzil picked her.

I also don't think there was any "confusion" created by me not hopping on the bandwagon and voting Sally immediately. In fact, I was the only person besides Sally herself that didn't vote for her, so yesterday's verdict was pretty well locked in fairly early.

And I'll be honest - I'm not really certain where those lasts posts of yours came from, about me not knowing the situation? I was perfectly aware that we'd still be at lynch-or-lose even if Inzil was right - I'm not really sure how that was relevant.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So I would think the wolves would have wanted to wait at least a little bit to see if anyone else would vote for an innocent so that they could just jump on board. As soon as Sally voted for Inzil they would have just needed one ordo to go alone with that and the other 2 wolves could have jumped on. Rikae therefore looks really good here, I think a wolf would have waited until at least 2 or 3 people had voted before jumping on.

I actually want to come back to this. In most cases, I'd buy this... but Sally voted Inzil who was voted Most Likely To Be Dreamt Innocent. I don't see anyone innocent voting for him over Sally yesterday - plus I've already talked about the ramifications of sacrificing a wolf yesterday, especially in light of Inzil being the first to vote.

Honestly, this whole post sort of looks like Wilwa is in a rush to exonerate Rikae and condemn me... and her reasoning sort of falls flat in both cases.

[wilwarin538]

Shasta, there was confusion created by you not voting Sally, because she turned out to be a wolf. The majority of us agreed to follow Inzil's vote, whatever it was, because all voting the same was better than voting all over the place. Your reluctance to follow this plan, pretty much our only logical option, is suspect. The confusion comes because now it is hard to tell whether you are a wolf who didn't want to vote their fellow, or an innocent who simply didn't understand the importance of the village sticking together. Even if your vote ended up not influencing anything, it still creates a confusing situation. When I suggested the plan I even stated that anyone who didn't follow it would look bad later.

And I'm not exonerating Rikae, I just think her behavior looks more innocent, she stated yesterday what I just did, that you voting differently would cause an issue today if Sally was guilty, maybe it was a wolf preemptively drawing suspicion to you, but it looked more like an innocent who was becoming aware of the issue we'd have to deal with today.

[Rikae]

I'm here momentarily, but I'm afraid I can't be much help toDay - Mac's birthday stuff. I would have liked to analyze everyone's interactions with Sally, but I'm not likely to get the chance.

However, I do want to try and clear this up:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Inzil being innocent doesn't necessarily translate to Inzil being right.

Of course it doesn't. But Inzil being innocent would mean that if he (or any other ordo) was wrong, the game would have been over. The wolves could have piled on and decided the lynch.

But I strongly suspect you were aware of that, which is why you waited around so long yourself. You even just mentioned it

Originally Posted by Shasta

we were always going to be in the position of "if an innocent votes an innocent, we lose"

- so why are you feigning ignorance of that whenever you talk about my vote?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I agree that Rikae's is the best-looking vote - although I think she'd be capable of bussing a fellow in a situation like yesterDay's.

That did actually occur to me, since a wolf would have seen the vote was for one of their fellows and realised that presumably the other 3 innocents would not be opposed to voting for Sally, there was no reason to really think that any innocents would be opposed to my idea. So yes, an evil Rikae could have assumed that all of the innocents would follow and she could then be the first to do so and look really good as a result. (but, the way Rikae was pretty passionate at the end of the Day yesterday looked like a very anxious innocent to me)

Although I think it's interesting that you mention that your own vote looks suspicious.

My post was basically outlining the suspiciousness of the votes based almost solely on the order they were given, I couldn't really get away with saying Nerwen's looks worst because it was close to the end without admitting that the same could be said of mine.

Then again, it would be really risky to so openly swim against the current, especially after it was obvious that Sally was going to get killed. I'm not sure if Shastawolf would do that.

I'm beginning to think the same, he must have realised that if he blatantly went against the group we would be suspecting him today, I don't think that a wolf Shasta would want to put himself in that kind of position. However, I also don't see why an innocent Shasta would do it either, knowing that if we waste a lynch on him today we lose, but perhaps he wasn't thinking that far ahead. Either way it's weird, I don't know which is more likely.

And this by Sally:

Nerwen (and anyone else around right now), we have to vote together or we will die. I'll go with the wisdom of others in choosing between Dun and Rikae, because her actions toDay have shot her far up the list, and Dun's never left that position. Also admittedly because I know my role for sure, and I don't know theirs, so either of them is automatically a better choice than me

Now, to me this looks like she could be suggesting to her mates (Nerwen possibly being one of them, though I don't know if she'd be that direct in addressing them), to vote between either Inzil or Rikae. I think this makes Rikae look really good, just the way Sally says either of them are a better choice than herself, etc.

x'ed with Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

So in answer to that question, I offer the following.

When the game began, I looked at the player list and counted twelve people, at which point I assumed we had a wildcard. (I, um, counted Kitanna by mistake. Whoops. ) Throughout the course of the first Day, I threw out a couple of hints to said wildcard and once it was Night, I sent the following PM to my lycanthropic ladies.

Originally Posted by PM

I believe Agan is our best bet for the Night. Why? Because I think she might be saying, "Roger, wolf tower." And if not, I've still an inkling to remove her from play ASAP.

I will draw your memories to Kit's next to last game, in which I was a wolf and we turned our cursed, Agan, who helped us to a stunning victory (posthumous for me) after some spectacular hints leading up to her conversion. It was this, not the most recent game, that I was referring to in my first post, and I believe Agan may have picked up on that.

If Agan is the wildcard, I would expect her inclinations to lean toward choosing the darker path, and asking about the wildcard despite being the wildcard is the bold sort of trick she would pull. I would also expect some sort of hints (which I believe we're seeing above).

If Agan is the seer, I think the last post I quoted would give her enough reason to dream me if she hasn't already, which would be very bad for me and therefore sort of bad for us (though please do not put my personal survival above the good of the pack).

Either way, I feel she's our best choice, and I've not heard from either of you lovely lycanthropic ladies yet, so I'm sending this message to Kit as well just in case neither of you can make it back before deadline.

Mistress, please consider our kill choice to be Agan unless one of my fellows should tell you otherwise. Ladies, please do proceed how you see fit, and we shall sort out the body parts in the morning.

I realize shortly afterward that it was I, not she, who had miscounted the number of players in the game, and I felt immensely idiotic, but I maintain we made the right choice in getting rid of the sultry minx.

So that's why Agan. Basically because I am bad at math and don't double check my work. *headdesks*

[Rikae]

All's well that ends well, though! And killing Agan seemed reasonable enough to me at the time.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

I will draw your memories to Kit's next to last game, in which I was a wolf and we turned our cursed, Agan, who helped us to a stunning victory (posthumous for me) after some spectacular hints leading up to her conversion. It was this, not the most recent game, that I was referring to in my first post, and I believe Agan may have picked up on that.

If Agan is the wildcard, I would expect her inclinations to lean toward choosing the darker path, and asking about the wildcard despite being the wildcard is the bold sort of trick she would pull. I would also expect some sort of hints (which I believe we're seeing above).

Ah, so I was right about the wildcard thing! You’re referring to “Panic at the Prancing Pony”, right, Sally? I was thinking of that myself… really should have followed up that thought with, “well, so who else here was a Wraith with me that game?”