Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Macalaure]

I'm sure Nog and phantom will have some nice words for each other.

To be a fly on the wall.

[Rikae]

Ok, so, whatever the phantom was, his plan shall live on!

Although these guys don't actually know anyone's role to signal us about, yet, so it won't come into play until toMorrow. But anyhoo.

That was some wagon yesterDay, wasn't it? I'd say it deserves a closer look.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm sure Nog and phantom will have some nice words for each other.

To be a fly on the wall.

My thoughts too!

I do agree with Rikae and was thinking that the Nog vote came out of the blue and was very quick to be picked up on. Those things tend to bother me. Here was Tummy's last count and I will add Sally...

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Formendacil
Mormegil -> Macalaure
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Formendacil 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> A Little Green
Nogrod -> Aganzir 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

Sally sealed the fate but there was a lot and very quickly that led up to that. Agan looked like she would by lynched with 5 votes to everyone else who was maxed at 3 with Form (odd choice too) and then suddenly Nog got 5 votes to pass her up. I didn't think Nog looked all that odd to me. Agan looked at least a bit odd with the Lommy back and forth thing.

I'm trying to determine what this all means and I guess I'm talking myself though it by typing it out. We did have a couple of no votes. I think Gwath ( no post), Nerwen and Green...any others? I understand Day 1 can be a bit crazy but the no vote bothers me too. I suspect Gwath was busy or didn't realize it had started, so there is a pass card. However, Greenie, if I remember, came in sounded reasonable, was safe in her posts and left without a vote...odd to me.

x'ed with Sally Nerwen and Mac

[Boromir88]

But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.~Mac

Well, Number-cruncher, what do the odds say that none, one, or both victims were wolves?

the phantom did paint a large bulls-eye on his back:

I'll be an asset to whatever thread I'm in, Noggie. If you really want me in the Dead thread...

Hey Wolves. Kill me tonight. Ranger. Do not protect me.

There. We'll see if that works.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

the phantom did paint a large bulls-eye on his back:

Yeah, that post was what I immediately thought of this Morning when I saw the lists. Some form of dramatic irony or something.

[Nerwen]

Rune

#35.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Personally I am loving the idea of empowering the dead! It seems like a very barrow-wightish thing to do, and perhaps it could evolve into a religion of sorts.

If we chose to tie the vote, I doubt that we would risk loosing data for us to analyze at a later stage. After all there is more to pack-behavior and whatnot than voting patterns.

Sorry for the shoret cameo, I will return again later.

Okay, so from his very first post he advocates a deliberate tie. (Is also in favour of the plan for communicating with the Dead.)

#79.
Banter. Contains a line about how he enjoys “killing Europeans”. This is clearly a joke in context (referring back to Agan and morm's exchange at #67, #69), but I suppose a very paranoid pack might have jumped on it.

#93.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

So we are not going for a tied non-lynch today?

But rather we are going to at least attempt to get a baddie?

What a splendid idea! We all know what an incredible success rate we have on day 1, and obviously a well meaning effort always gets rewarded. Since when did sincerity become an excuse for failure?

ehm... I guess what I am trying to say, is that I still quite fancy that non-lynch thingy.

Also I will have to vote quite soon.

Stronger support than before for the non-lynch. Gets all sarcastic.

#101.
Banter with Greenie. Might possibly have been taken as a hint or code of some kind. (I doubt it is, though.)

#105.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I don't know if anybody used those words.

You want people to use intuition to vote intelligently?
Is there any meaningful way in which using your intuition, differentiates from reacting to erratic behaviour?

Sceptical of the possibility of “intelligent” Day One voting.

#106.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Pathos much?

They must be having an interesting time in the Dead Thread...

#108.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I apologise for the successive posts.

I do really have to leave, and so will have to vote.

I can either vote Formendacil, since he volunteered, or I could vote for Greenie, since I do not care for the buddying up her and Nog is doing (also she mentioned Kant).

++Formendacil

Yup... I don't want to see Form gone, and I would be deeply saddened if this lead to his demise. Though I spoke ill about Greenie, I would hardly say that her actions merits the label "suspicious", "annoying" would be more fitting.

Second vote of the Day (first was Nilp's inevitable self-vote). It is also the only post of seven in which which he actually *says* anything, other than banter and arguing for a deliberate tie. As you
see, he expresses suspicion of Greenie and Nog, especially the former, but votes Form “because he volunteered”; stresses that he does not actually want Form lynched, and that he does not “really” suspect Greenie. This is fairly typical behaviour for a nervous Seer who has not yet dreamed a wolf and is afraid of dying early (which Rune often does) and having his words twisted after death. Taken with his jumpiness and obsession with the dangers of the lynch, I would say Rikae is likely correct that he was killed as a “gifted”. (An alternative, assuming #79 was taken as a double-bluff, was that he was killed a rival wolf.)

Further discussion points: If so, were the wolves right? And is Rik just guessing why he was killed, or does she know? (Really: it’s surprising how often a wolf will helpfully explain the reasoning behind the Night-kill…)

Edit: x'd since morm at #243; clarification; wrongly attributed opinion; highlighting.

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Further discussion points: Were the wolves right? And is Rik just guessing why he was killed, or does she know? (Really: it’s surprising how often a wolf will helpfully explain the reasoning behind the Night-kill…)

I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.

Really? I was making more of a general observation rather than saying "I think Rikae is a wolf because of this", though I suppose I could have worded it better.
Actually, if anything's raising flags for me, just based on that line of reasoning, it's this post of Macalaure's (which appeared while I was doing the Runealysis, but which I didn't read properly, or I would have included it):

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Rune didn't do much, but he was, well, tense, without much reason. Could be the wolves took that as a sign of giftedness. His vote was for Formendacil, but it doesn't look like the vote was because he dreamt of him, but just because he was there. He also suspected Greenie, but again, not in a way that looks seer-ish to me. If he was gifted, then he wasn't the seer, and obviously not the hunter either. Losing ranger or lovers this early would hurt us. They're not bringing anything of value back to us at this point.

The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific. Of course one does try to look at things from the wolfish point of view, but Mac here seems to be slipping into it a little too easily for my liking.

[A Little Green]

Well, I suppose he did ask them to kill him. As for Runebug, I agree with Rikae, morm and Nerwen that the wolves might have had him down as a potential Seer with the way he seemed quite tense and the way he stressed that none of his suspicions was really a proper suspicion. Also, the exchange between Sally and morm (and others) looks very interesting, I'll get back to it in a moment. In any case, at least based on these two kills I'd say our two Wolfgangs (R.I.P. Nogrod) have very different strategies. The thing is, though, that even if they target the Seer, which they are likely to do, they won't know if they've caught him/her or not. Which means that they could spend the whole game targeting "potential Seers" (or, at least, until there's a reveal or something). Not sure how this is related to anything, but anyway.

Originally Posted by Morm

We did have a couple of no votes. I think Gwath ( no post), Nerwen and Green...any others? I understand Day 1 can be a bit crazy but the no vote bothers me too. I suspect Gwath was busy or didn't realize it had started, so there is a pass card. However, Greenie, if I remember, came in sounded reasonable, was safe in her posts and left without a vote...odd to me.

Odd to me too, I can tell you. I thought I'd go brush my teeth and then come back to vote before turning in, but instead I somehow forgot to vote and went to sleep! I plead being sick. Speaking of Gwath though, is he even playing? I mean, has he confirmed it? His only post in the Admin Thread was something like "I want to. I really shouldn't."

I have a ton of stuff from yesterDay and toDay I wanted to comment on, now off to check how much of it is still relevant!


EDIT: x.ed with Nilp and Shasta

[McCaber]

A look at the Rune Son:

Post 35: Backs everything that the phantom had just said about giving the dead thread options and about tying the lynch on Day 1.

Post 79: Garbage post about the amount of conversation. Still mentions being in favor of phantom's plan.

Post 93: Again trying to get a drawn vote, using our lack of previous Day 1 success as evidence.

Post 101: Thinks little of Kant.

Post 105: Critiquing Rikae's point of view as to how wolves are Fenris'd on Day 1s.

Post 106: Criticizes Nogrod's pro-lynch arguments as overly emotional.

Post 108: Votes Formy "because he volunteered", and immediately regrets it in the same post. I think he was trying to draw the vote here as he said he wanted.

So the village lynches Nogrod, and the wolves in the night kill the two people who seemed to disagree with him the most. Or at least one who disagreed and one who backed his arguments. I'm still not sure what to make of it, to be honest.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry for the delay. I got hugely distracted (and also sleepy).

Runesky

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Personally I am loving the idea of empowering the dead! It seems like a very barrow-wightish thing to do, and perhaps it could evolve into a religion of sorts.

If we chose to tie the vote, I doubt that we would risk loosing data for us to analyze at a later stage. After all there is more to pack-behavior and whatnot than voting patterns.

Speaking here in (albeit mild) support of tying the lynch vote, which I still find a suspicious stance to take (more on why in a moment). He is also in favor of empowering the dead, which strikes me as neither innocent nor guilty.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

So we are not going for a tied non-lynch today?

But rather we are going to at least attempt to get a baddie?

What a splendid idea! We all know what an incredible success rate we have on day 1, and obviously a well meaning effort always gets rewarded. Since when did sincerity become an excuse for failure?

ehm... I guess what I am trying to say, is that I still quite fancy that non-lynch thingy.

Also I will have to vote quite soon.

Bolding mine. Especially given his clarification here, I find his support of the no-lynch idea rather suspicious. Rather than take the chance of getting a baddie, he prefers we kill no one until the wolves strike in the Night. Better to kill no one at all than to have the possibility of a wolf being killed. (I'm stretching slightly, but note that he never mentions we could lynch an innocent by mistake. He only mentioned baddies.)

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I can either vote Formendacil, since he volunteered, or I could vote for Greenie, since I do not care for the buddying up her and Nog is doing (also she mentioned Kant).

++Formendacil

Yup... I don't want to see Form gone, and I would be deeply saddened if this lead to his demise. Though I spoke ill about Greenie, I would hardly say that her actions merits the label "suspicious", "annoying" would be more fitting.

"I'm going to vote Form, but I don't want him to die." In fairness, no one wants to see anyone go on Day 1, but it is of course necessary. Still, stating it in that way doesn't sit right with me. I have a couple of ideas on why this exchange may have occurred, but with so little information, it's impossible to get a better feel for the situation.

Conclusion: Where wolf? (I'm leaning toward thinking he was sniped by one of the wolf packs for being a potential rival.)


x'd since my last

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sorry for the delay. I got hugely distracted (and also sleepy).

Runesky



Speaking here in (albeit mild) support of tying the lynch vote, which I still find a suspicious stance to take (more on why in a moment). He is also in favor of empowering the dead, which strikes me as neither innocent nor guilty.



Bolding mine. Especially given his clarification here, I find his support of the no-lynch idea rather suspicious. Rather than take the chance of getting a baddie, he prefers we kill no one until the wolves strike in the Night. Better to kill no one at all than to have the possibility of a wolf being killed. (I'm stretching slightly, but note that he never mentions we could lynch an innocent by mistake. He only mentioned baddies.)



"I'm going to vote Form, but I don't want him to die." In fairness, no one wants to see anyone go on Day 1, but it is of course necessary. Still, stating it in that way doesn't sit right with me. I have a couple of ideas on why this exchange may have occurred, but with so little information, it's impossible to get a better feel for the situation.

Conclusion: Where wolf? (I'm leaning toward thinking he was sniped by one of the wolf packs for being a potential rival.)


x'd since my last

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently. Sorry for no bolding, I'm using my phone and it's past bedtime. Goodnight

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Well, Number-cruncher, what do the odds say that none, one, or both victims were wolves?

You want the odds? You can't handle the odds!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

A very odd conclusion. I would imagine that the wolves would be much more concerned about getting the Seer early on as that is their greatest threat, it's what I would do. You are trying to make a case against a dead man, why? If anything, I would imagine that the wolves thought Rune was the Seer and now a Sallywolf is attempting to have us think differently.

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.

[Firefoot]

I wrote this prior to the Day starting, but I don't think the results of the Night change anything, so I'm just leaving it and going to bed...

Okay, I’m going to try and make some sense out of a lot of half-formed thoughts and erratic notes taken by hand while perusing the Day 1 conversation on my phone.

I spent a fair amount of time thinking about the proposal to tie the vote yesterDay – who was for it, who was against it, the reasons they gave – and why either a wolf or an innocent would be interested in tying or not tying the vote. So:

Why an innocent wouldn’t want to tie: 1) Get the dead thread up and going more quickly, since it’s likely to be dominated by innocents and is a key source of knowledge in the game; 2) No chance of killing a wolf and advancing the game.

Why an innocent would want to tie: 1) Zero risk of accidentally lynching a gifted; 2) Keep the population of the village up longer; 3) Gain more information from Night 2’s activities so that lynching can be a (slightly) more educated decision.

Why a wolf would not want to tie: 1) Extremely high odds of lynching an innocent (ordo or gifted), or a wolf from another pack – since they know exactly who they want alive and dead and can steer the vote.

Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)

So, that being said, the people that stand out to me as most suspicious:

loslote: Starts rather ambiguous about the idea of a tie (post #22), then becomes adamant that it is a bad idea (#48, #54, #202). Also, concern about trusting the dead thread could be construed as suspicious (since it’s likely to be a majority of innocents with some knowledge, wolves wouldn’t want to leave anything up to them) (post #28, #54).

Macalaure: Also anti-tie, which is not instantly condemning. He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who – no pointing fingers, but still substantial posting (though he does make a list of his suspicions (#131)). Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent. Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me. [Overall, I’m not convincing myself here, but earlier when I was taking notes I was getting bad vibes from his posts… so really just not sure.]

McCaber: Mostly this quote: “Any lynch is still better than no lynch in my book, so out of those who I dislike Agan has the most realistic odds of not leaving a tie.” Sorry, but no. Maybe I’m misunderstanding his meaning, but this struck me really badly.

Meh. All of this seemed a lot more substantive in my head earlier. My intuition for wolves is also notoriously bad, but hopefully this is at least a little interesting or helpful.
-----
Addendum: I definitely think the vote yesterDay bears looking into - seems very bandwagon-y to me (both Nogrod's sudden downfall and the pile-up on Agan), but I haven't had time to look into it myself.

Also, wouldn't it be funny if all three of the people in the Dead Thread were wolves? Wishful thinking, I guess...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Morm's response here seems weirdly defensive. Potentially a packmate worried that, should Rune be seen as a potential wolf, they (that is, Rune and morm) might be tied together?

Of course, he might have been killed for looking like the Seer, but then why would Sally try to cover it up? Looking at his posts, the only thing I could take from it is that he definitely had not dreamt a wolf yet, since he was so adamant that we would not be able to lynch a wolf that Day. Therefore, if Sally were a wolf, she would not gain anything from trying to cover up his potential Seer gift.

All this to say, I found this post by morm to be highly suspicious.

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

Edit:x'd with Greenie and my shining star.. Oh, darling, don't go! I miss you...

[Lalaith]

Here's something that's been bothering me since I read up on the events that occured yesterDay after I went to bed last night. (Awfully sorry about the failure to highlight, Kuru, won't happen again. )
Anyway, I was baffled by the lynching of Nogs as to me he seemed one of the most innocent players. So I had a close look at the events leading up to this lynching. At 1.07am (I'm going by my BST timings here) Nogs says he will vote for either Aganzir or Phantom, and makes a case against them both. At this point, there are no votes for him and just one for Agan. Legate votes for Greenie, Nogs votes for Agan and then a couple more votes keep Agan and Form in the lead.
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

*actually thinking about it, there is also the scenario that everyone was wrong, or various scenarios where some people are half-right! This game is crazy...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I wouldn't put it so strongly as "highly suspicious", but eyebrow-raising, perhaps. (I mean, in *this* game, why *not* make a case against a dead man?) There was nothing in Rune's posting that would link him with morm, though. Have you seen something in morm's, or was that just a guess?

No, not between morm and Rune. That suggestion was an off-the-cuff guess - I hadn't gone back and checked. They don't really interact much, if at all, which leads me to believe that, if they are packmates, it is not morm himself who is implicated by Rune's death, but rather the third packmate - Greenie, maybe, if Rune decided to throw out a bit of very light wolf-on-wolf, or Form, if he really went heavily wolf-on-wolf. Now, of course, I've moved into speculation, but that would be my guess as to why morm responded to Sally the way he did.

Besides his response to Sally, though, looking through morm's posts, I found that he and Rune played a very similar game in a lot of respects. Both hung back, both cast basically throw-away votes (Rune for Form, with the intention of tying, and morm for Mac, both very early on in the game), and both chose an side on the Dead thread debate and occasionally reiterated their support of that side, without actually getting their hands dirty. I could easily see them being a pair of wolves who wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

Of course, this could (and, honestly, probably is) just be wishful thinking. I would very much like to be one wolf down with another in sight. I definitely suspect morm, but I'll take a look at other people as well to try to avoid tunnel-visioning on him.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

[Firefoot]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

[Boromir88]

All we essentially know at this point is Rune and tp were not part of the same pack (considering the narration says they were "mauled" I'm also going with the interpretation they were killed by both packs). Which is a crummy position to be in, and we won't have any solid info (possibly) until the next DAY.

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

For the time being I'm assuming both Rune and the phantom were ordo, until there comes a time when we might discover otherwise. I can't recall playing with Rune in a long time, I didn't get any wolf-vibes from him. Rune seemed to side with the phantom on having no-lynch and criticized Nogrod, so it's possible one pack killed him to set up the Nog voters. (I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

The most likely wolf, of the 3 dead, I think is Nogrod and I would love for the Dead to check him tonight, but that's choice isn't up to me.

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

For the time being though, I'm going to go with the assumption Rune and the phantom are ordos.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that. In this case, however, I do not think Rune looked like a Gifted. He certainly didn't look like a Seer, anyway, at least as far as I can tell, and I haven't picked up on anything else, either. But the wolves must have thought he was something, because I don't think this is a game where no-trace kills are going to be a priority on Night 2.

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking suggests to me that either Sally is right and you didn't think anyone would come up with it, or that Sally is wrong and you, knowing what is right, consider anything which is not correct to be absurd and suspicious. But the only people who can say "of course she is wrong" are the people who know, because they were there when the decision was made.

I will not likely be back much before deadline. This will be the only day like that this game (fingers crossed), but I'll have to vote basically now or risk not getting back in time or having to vote sloppily after only having about a half an hour to read the thread. My vote at this point will probably be for morm, unless something else comes up in the next five minutes.