Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Firefoot]

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Since Legate posted his list very clearly, I'll copy it here:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath

He seems like an unlikely seer candidate based on this. The people in his Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

(…)

The people in his Legate’s] Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

“If he’d dreamed of them as a wolf?” ??? What were you trying to say there?

Anyway, I’m not sure I agree with you about Legate's “Green Zone”– the Seer’s Night One dream (or dreams, in this case) have to be either random or based on general principles (e.g. a player regarded as “scary” or “confusing”), and Lommy had anyway been in the middle of a controversy on Day One.

Why don’t you think Rikae was a likely candidate?

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

It may well be… I’ll think about it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilp

So, no bonus votes were given out yesterDAY, huh?

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

(At some point we will have less extra-vote getters than possibilities, not to mention the chance of a Seer being Dead and doing revealing things in the thread, but for the moment we have enough for them to convey their information as completely as possible. We can trim down this method in future DAYs.)

(And I do hope the Lovers and the Ranger are still alive.)

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

EDIT:X’d with Nilp.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

EDIT:X’d with Nilp.

This is true. Out of all of the dead that the thread will have had time to scry, Greenie is the one that I would want to know, with Nog a distant second.