Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

It might but that would hint at the seer more than KnownUnknown. And if Legate were the Seer then why is someone scratching this morning.. did someone shave a dwarf?

Ah, well, that’s a point. Everyone’s been assuming the ”itcher” was the special role.

[Nerwen]

Here's the post I was talking about.

Edit:fixed link.

[Formendacil]

Just a quick post--I seem to have my technological means back toDay, so I should be around in the last several hours, though I'm off to work for now.

Someone--I've already lost whom in catching up--pointed out that people voted for Agan on back-to-back days. This isn't a surefire indicator of lupinity, but taking Day 1 hunches and doggedly following them on Day 2 is as likely to be a cover of a furry bandwaggon as not.

Also, Eomer is coming across far more cryptically today. I don't know what that means...

[Nerwen]

Now, what do people think of our little snow flower, Lottie? Rikae went after her yesterDay, and now Rikae's dead, so….?

Edit:x’d with Form.

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen, that link isn't working for me..could you check it or just give a number ref? Cheers.

[Nerwen]

Okay, I’ve fixed it.

[Mithalwen]

She says a lot including the comment that "I am not going there (the dead thread) alone" (my italic). To my mind that is as good a hint as you could get that she is the hunter and given that her death triggered Greenie's I think that is more likely than the special role the bear trap quote not withstanding.

[Thinlómien]

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Second - it seems I was wrong about the aforementioned deceased giggler. I'm honestly quite baffled because I still think her actions were pretty incriminating, but unless one of the wolves of each pack is blessed with the hunter's gifts without that being said in the rules, I have obviously been mistaken. I guess I'm starting to understand what Agan meant when she once jokingly said she always plays like a wolf even if she's an innocent... As for Greenie - well we can hope she was a wolf, but we can't really assume that. More on Greenie later.

Third - last Night: what on earth?? I'm still leaning towards the interpretation that Agan was the hunter (because otherwise the mysterious special role would be very similar to that of the hunter) and the special role bloodied their hands last Night. I agree that the special person killing Mac seems the most likely, but I'll still sacrifice a thought or two to that.

If I have the time, I'd so skim through all the Night killed people's posts.

People talking about the dead thread scrying people - before we start thinking if we can give them any instructions, we should check what the rules say: (there seemed to be some confusion, also in my own head)

Since in the Afterlife (or in the anteroom of the Afterlife) it is hard to hide one's true nature from one's fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are three residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. Their specific role will not be revealed but rather the voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.

"Every night after". So as the phantom and the rune only died on Night2, we should assume the dead thread didn't get to check anyone's role on Night2. And last Night, their options would have been Nogrod, the phantom, Rune, Agan and Greenie.

Now, we said they should check a lynch. I think that on principle, they would agree. This would make Nogrod the logical option as we can assume Agan was the hunter (or the special role). But then again, it's been a while since Nogrod's death and they might feel knowing Greenie's role is more useful. (Remember Agan and Greenie would have been part of decision board last Night.)

Okay so let me do a little maths before I embarrass myself:

We send Sally the volunteered lover (hi there!) to the dead thread by lynching her toDay (Day3).
If her partner manages to hide, Sally will return on Day5, knowing the roles of the people the dead scried on Night3 and Night4, right?
Now I'd love to actually NOT lynch Sally but a potential wolf instead, and leave the wolf packs wondering if they should off Sally or the other wolf pack will, and hopefully both going for Sally.
The downside of this strategy is that I'm not sure if the wolves wouldn't rather try to avoid killing Sally or her partner at all and hope the lovers with their special information will never come to be of (special) use to the village at all. They can afford the village to have one known innocent, I would think, it's more the question of whether they'd rather kill Sally and then try to kill her lover before she comes back, or whether they'd rather try to avoid night-killing or lynching either for as long as the game lasts, or actually, as long as there's still likely to be two more games.
Wow this gives me headache.

Okay a little more maths on top of this:

We're now 15 living people. In the worst ever case scenario, there's 9 innocents against 3 wolves against 3 wolves. Now let's assume the seer's dreams don't help us to lynch a wolf, the special role doesn't kill anybody anymore and the ranger doesn't make a save, and the wolves don't hit the same target or each other. (this is hopefully all very pessimistic)

We lynch lover-Sally on Day 3. It's 8-3-3.
An ordo and Sally's lover are killed on Night 4. It's 6-3-3.
We lynch an innocent on Day 4. It's 5-3-3.
Two innocents are killed on Night 5. It's 3-3-3.
Sally doesn't return from the dead to lift the ratio to 4-3-3. The village loses on Day5 with a tied wolf victory.

Now replace lynching Sally with lynching any other innocent toDay (and remove all talk of the lovers), and the worst case scenario is the same (tied wolf victory on Day5), the only difference is that we have two shots at lynching the wolf (toDay and toMorrow) instead of one (if we intentionally lynch Sally toDay).

I don't think it will come down to this. I think it's feasible to assume that at least 1-2 wolves are already dead, maybe more. Also the gifteds might be able to help us.

All I'm saying is, I'm not for lynching Sally without thinking it over a little more still. I guess it comes down to if taking a risk for the information about 2 scried dead people plus whatever other info the dead might have (seer dreams???) is worth "losing" a Day.

Now emphasis on the word "risk". Combined, the wolf packs have four shots at getting Sally's lover while she's in the underworld.

I guess my conclusion is:

The information is worth lynching a known innocent toDay. (I think this might be the first time ever I'm advocating not trying to lynch a wolf. Strange things happen.)
However I'm not sure we're likely to win this bet, which would make me tempted to push the choice over to the wolves and make them use their Night-kills for that instead of killing possible gifteds.

And geez, now I'm flip-flopping even more. My inner pessimist is asking if it really helps us to know the roles of two dead people (if the dead indeed have no other information) because a) they might both be innocent and b) even analyzing dead wolves' posts has never been a foolproof way to find their packmates.

Okay, now I'm flip-flopping out. I'll be back later - there's a ton of small things said by people earlier toDay and late yesterDay that I'd love to comment on.

But I really think we need think it over before lynching Sally. I'm inconclusive myself. The idea of the wolves having four shots in total at finding her lover sounds pretty bleak to me. Then again, I *do* want to know what the dead know, and it would be weird not to try to use the lovers to our advantage. (If the advantage in this warped case isn't using them as a wolf bait.)

/ confused Lommy out, please discuss

[Boromir88]

Talk of lynching a lover should be dismissed. Period. You all were up in arms Day 1 about the thought of tying the vote for no-lynch because it spoils the random 25% chance of lynching a wolf. Now you want to lynch a possible lover?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.

I agree that we definitely need to think this lynching Sally business over. So nobody jump in and vote for her yet, please. I’d find that very suspicious, actually.

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.
EDIT:x’d with Boro.

[Nerwen]

You too, Boro.

[Boromir88]

Lottie, I haven't formed much of an opinion on, she's skating under my nose.

Nilp seems focused on the Dead activity and not so on suspects, or the task during the day. It would look off for anyone except Nilp, he tends to be focused on his own death.

I'm feeling better about morm today, his post on the Agan voters looks like the down-to-business, no shenanigans, let's lynch someone self that I was so used to back in the days long gone.

I still am getting a lost, don't have many clues feel from Lommy, Firefoot, and Form.

If sally is really a lover, that'll help as long as we don't lynch her (I can't believe that idea was tossed out). Yeah, I like info as much as the next person, but we don't lynch a gifted, we need to be lynching wolves.

Those who stirred the idea, top my suspicious list (Eomer and McCaber). Everyone else, Mith, Lalaith, Shasta, Lottie, Kath (missing anyone), I need to put more thought into.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen -

I have been sort of ignoring Nilp (sorry dear!) all game as he has seemed fairly innocent to me. Now that I stop to think about him, I guess it's also possible he's furry. I recall a game maybe two years ago when I also kept ignoring him thinking he's innocent and he turned out to be a wolf who had fooled everyone. He's similar to how Greenie was (is??) in my mind - innocent-seeming, but maybe even too much so. I ended up being unsure about Greenie. I feel the same about Nilp.

As for Lottie, she's been similarly off my radar, but unlike Nilp, not on the innocent side. She's seemed a little fishy to me, but not really in a pin-pointable (sorry for that word ) way. I've been partly ignoring it too because I always get suspicious vibes from Lottie anyway. The same way I've been sort of ignoring the debate around her because similar controversy about her always occurs. Lastly, I was also personally finding Lottie suspicious yesterDay for taking part in the weird Nogawagon that happened to save Agan who was my top suspect, but that reasoning is obviously ditched now.

The bottom line? I have of lumping Nilp and Lottie in the "vaguely innocent" and "vaguely suspicious" categories respectively for later consideration and now that I'm sort of doing the "later consideration" by writing this post, Nilp seems a little more furry and Lottie a tiny bit less suspicious (mostly thanks to Agan's innocence) but I don't really know.


edit: xed with a bunch

[Thinlómien]

Eomer - maybe innocent
Firefoot - ???
Boro - fishy, better toDay than earlier though
Mac - I thought he was innocent but the whole village suspecting him kind of has made me second guess myself

I don't really have any suspicions right now so I shouldn't maybe be asked. My main suspects for two Days have been Agan and Sally and I haven't rethought yet.

Of the living, I think the ones that I feel I should scrutinize next are:

Boro
Firefoot
Lottie
Nilp
Eomer
and Shasta

I'm pretty sure there has to be at least 2 wolves in that list.


edit: xed with everyone again

[satansaloser2005]

An addendum to my previous post:

Given that the ranger seems to still be in play (let's hope!), rest assured that my precious and I have a whole new plan (rather, an additional plan) in the works to protect xem should they need to reveal at any point. It doesn't make my beloved immune, but it does make my return a little more plausible.

Anyway. Off to reading now, sorry. *poofs*