Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

Well. I'm not sure about this. I've seen Borowolf fake reveal out of the blue just to flush out the real ranger when he felt they needed to take them out - poor Shasta was lynched as the "fake" ranger, and Boro the next day. I can't remember if it resulted in a wolf victory but either way it was effective.

At the moment, there's 12 people alive. Let's say Boro is a wolf and his pack is still in full strength (while they know the other pack is down to 1). In this situation, the special role is the biggest risk to them.

Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special. An innocent is lynched. After two (innocent) night kills, there's 3 wolves to 5 villagers (and 1 wolf). Not difficult to sway the vote. The pack wins the next day.
Alternatively, Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special - who kills him next NIGHT. Boro is a "known innocent" in the Dead thread, at least until the special speaks out or we scry him. He can influence our vote and try to ensure his pack's survival from here. Not as effective but not necessarily doomed either.

I'm not saying this is what's happening or that it's even likely, just that it's possible and we shouldn't dismiss it, especially as in the "best" case scenario it makes sense as a means to secure victory. In any case, I'm not sure Nerwen has dreamed Boro.

WW CIX, otherwise apparently known as the game in which Agan didn't trust a single gifted reveal.