Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[mormegil]

Boro, you've still not indicated your allegiance. Is it to yourself or the village? Dumb question, I know, because you can simply tell us the village and we have no way of verifying. I commend you for your kill of Macwolf; however I'm still uncertain of Lalwolf and you never indicated what you felt suspicious about her.

Additionally, I've been thinking about Kath and there are two major concerns that are brought to my mind. First, she could be a wolf who is hiding by posting minimally. A viable strategy to be sure and she has been somewhat immune to any major suspicion up to this point. It's also a strategy that helps ensure you don't get to be a target of a seer dream. Second, if she is innocent, she becomes a liability the further we go. We will need all villagers to be present and up to speed on what's going on. Overall, this is a concern we need addressed.

Boromir, to your question about Lal being a target for the dead, it would seem probable. A situation like that should be easy enough to orchestrate.

Something like this:

If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to:
Form
Sally
McCaber


If she's not, give the vote to:
Boromir88
Thinlómien
Eomer


If you don't know give your vote to:
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Thoughts? Approval?

[Mithalwen]

Not sure that Lalaith is the most useful information at this point. If Nerwen were the Seer she may have had her dreams before she died. Wouldn't it be more useful to contrive something to find out something out abput the living since we must be nearing a very delicate stage.

Personally speaking, while it would make days easier to be a proven innocent such identification post lynch vote might be counterproductive in that it pins a nice target for the wolves. So maybe only ask them to identify a known wolf.. obviously not by giving them the bonus vote but with either prearranged "pairs" or other system?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't know if this is a stretch, but did anyone else have the feeling that Nilp may have been empowered by the Dead yesterday? If so, the narration is quite cryptic; but it does mention that Nilp jumped up and pulled the lever on himself - he didn't cast the deciding vote as a few people voted him after his self-vote, so I'm puzzled that he's described as pulling the lever.

Could be nothing more than a joke, of course, but if not then it would indicate that Legate was innocent.

Depending on who the Ranger is and who they tried to save (if still in the village) we might be able to narrow it down from 4 (Morm, Form, Mith & Kath) to 3 or 2. Then I'd say it's just a matter of killing them off one by one.

Note that I'm taking Sally's post yesterday as proof of a certain someone's innocence, but if that was some sort of in-joke then we should really get that confirmed.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh, and Form: yes.

I must say it was brilliant stuff from Nerwen. I so wanted my earlier theory about the special role to be right, though!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Not sure that Lalaith is the most useful information at this point. If Nerwen were the Seer she may have had her dreams before she died. Wouldn't it be more useful to contrive something to find out something out abput the living since we must be nearing a very delicate stage.

Personally speaking, while it would make days easier to be a proven innocent such identification post lynch vote might be counterproductive in that it pins a nice target for the wolves. So maybe only ask them to identify a known wolf.. obviously not by giving them the bonus vote but with either prearranged "pairs" or other system?

Ahh this is an excellent idea. Makes me feel a whole lot better about you too. I have no idea right now on Eomer, Kath, and morm. I feel pretty good about Shasta's innocence and Form's guilt but neither are certainties in my mind. I'm inclined to trust sally's one of the lovers still. So now, I guess it comes down to whether we can get on the same page.

Boro, you've still not indicated your allegiance. Is it to yourself or the village? Dumb question, I know, because you can simply tell us the village and we have no way of verifying. I commend you for your kill of Macwolf; however I'm still uncertain of Lalwolf and you never indicated what you felt suspicious about her.~morm

I've been intentionally cryptic I know...but don't doubt there's nothing I want to do more right now than kill wolves...either through the lynch or more personal hands-on. Preferably both.

So, if you trust that fact about me...then I think Mith's suggestion of trying to uncover Nerwen's previous dreams and uncover the living players is a great idea. It only works though if you lot trust my desire is to purge this place of wolves.

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players.

[Mithalwen]

It depends on whose reckoning you take as trusted innocent. If you get down to four suspects then you can have vote x or y for each and have a couple spares for zero wolf and pigs ear options. However if the presumptions of innocence are less certain then it is harder. We could make an educate guess on who a Nerwen seer would have chosen maybe... if we have the 2 most certain innocents as the single options and pair a more innocent seeming player with the main targets it gives the dead a chance to send a clear message without empowering a strong wolf candidate.

I

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I've been intentionally cryptic I know...but don't doubt there's nothing I want to do more right now than kill wolves...either through the lynch or more personal hands-on. Preferably both.

Will you please tell us if you are on our side? This response did not reassure me of that. A werebear type role would want the wolves eliminated too.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players.

It's a fine idea, however I would recommend having at least two options for the dead to pick who the vote goes to. Again, you are asking we trust you, when I simply cannot at this stage. You have too many variables about you. I trust Sally and I trusted Nerwen. While we can assume you are not a wolf (unless you are a lone wolf type scenario) we don't know you are innocent. We know you can kill whom you pick at night.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Will you please tell us if you are on our side? This response did not reassure me of that. A werebear type role would want the wolves eliminated too.

The only ones who should be worried about my allegiance are the wolves. I'm no were, grizzly, koala, or any kind of bear. I'm just a lonely killer, temporarily satisfied by the blood of wolves.

I'm cool with Lommy's scheme, that would cover all possible options.

Although, Mith's idea here:

However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?

I would put more on the genius. I mean it would be the best way for the Dead to have power and help us. I don't think it could go wrong on their end. It may go wrong on the living end, simply if one living wolf breaks rank and messes it up. Of course it would mean they're exposed as a wolf, but by the time we may not have the numbers to do anything about it. We still can't be sure if there's 1 pack or 2, or even if I was right about Lalaith.

To answer morm's question on my suspicions of Lalaith/why I targeted her. As I said yesterday, it was a later decision, because I had in mind to leave the clue as I had before (calling Eomer "den-dweller"), but when I was going through everything from that day and Nerwen's reveals. Lalaith had been playing under the radar, but still was sounding really certain about Lottie and Mac's guilt. And after all these years I still remember Mith's words about sounding certain as a sign of a wolf. Granted, that's a bit simplified, but I figured her certainty made her look guilty more than gifted, and worse than Eomer's posts about sacrificing one of the lovers for information.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The only ones who should be worried about my allegiance are the wolves. I'm no were, grizzly, koala, or any kind of bear. I'm just a lonely killer, temporarily satisfied by the blood of wolves.

Does this raise red flags to anyone else? The use of the word temporarily creeps me out.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Does this raise red flags to anyone else? The use of the word temporarily creeps me out.

I'm not blaming you if it does, just as I won't blame Nerwen for what she said about me yesterday. I'm making no mistake about intentionally hiding things, but if you're trying to paint me as a bigger threat to the village win over the unknown wolves, well this raises concerns about you.

I'll put it this way...village can lynch me today if they so want to, but I doubt they can beat the wolves without my help, at least right now. (If another wolf dies in a lynch today, or by my hands tonight, than it might change the dynamics to where the village decides I am a bigger threat than the remaining wolves).

The other option is to put up with an outed wildcard, who you can't be entirely sure if he's with the village team, or not. But you know he's not in a wolf pack and has shown the willingness and ability to go after wolves (and show restraint when needed that overall I think has benefitted the village more than the wolves).

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players.

This is an excellent idea (kudos to Mith).

However, not sure I'm following through. I always thought Nerwen dreamed of me, Shasta and Eomer as well - why would she otherwise have told the village not to vote any of us? Just because she was personally leaning towards considering us innocent? Wouldn't that have been a rather reckless move from a seer? Given that she didn't say "I would prefer not lynching x, y or z" but rather "trust me, let's not lynch these folks toDay" (not a direct quote but you get the drift).

I want to check Nerwen's posts and do a little maths anyway. I have a feeling something doesn't add up, and I'm most baffled about her telling the ranger not to protect herself and not explicitly saying she was the seer if she was so certain she's going to die anyway. (I mean, it was a brilliant move not to say it in the beginning, but not saying it late-ish yesterDay makes me scratch my head a little.)

And I'm not saying Nerwen wasn't the seer. I still believe she was. There's just something weird going on. Also, by checking again whose roles she cleared or indicated and how many dreams she'd have had maybe we can achieve a mutual agreement whether she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta or not.

Lastly but not least, I'm still a tiny bit unsure about Boro. What he's doing would be a bold but pretty good move from a wolf. I'm definitely not suggesting lynching him anytime soon, but I'm not sure we should trust him 100%.

I am sorry this game is making me paranoid, but to be honest I'm mostly sorry for myself.

[Mithalwen]

Lommy, don't quite get you... that is Boro's variant not mine.. I was thinking of the 4/5 including me listed by Eomer...

However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen straightforwardly said innocent
[the phantom]
[Firefoot]

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Nerwen said guilty
[Mac]
[Lottie]

Otherwise notable
Nerwen was very quick to believe Boro - another seer dream? My memory is a little fuzzy, but she may have said the same about Sally.

Including Boro or Sally would add up to 8 seer dreams, the correct amount for 4 nights. If Nerwen had dreamed of someone else (probably a dead person), I don't see why she wouldn't have mentioned it.

I'm still going to read her posts, but this is a good starting point.

This would also mean our remaining wolves are among

Morm
Form
Kath
Mith
McCaber

possibly but probably not Boro

(not Sally if we take her reveal at face value, which I still would)

Personally the ones I'm urgently worried about are Morm, Form and Kath.

[Thinlómien]

Mith, I just meant that it's a good idea to try to find out dead Nerwen's dreams like you suggested. Okay, it may be kind of obvious but it didn't occur to me. I wouldn't follow Boro's concrete suggestion. As far as I can see, we should set up you, Kath, morm, Form and possibly Boro himself as the dream options. We are exactly 10 now, so setting up a system to figure out any of the five seer dream options would mean using all the ten of us, including the unknown, as empowering options. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

[. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

OK that was what I meant by the pig's ear option (as in the British colloquial expression "you've made a pig's ear of that" meaning messed it up. However that was when I was working on the basis that Mc Caber was regarded as innocent.

[Thinlómien]

[blatantly clipped seer dream hunt]


Day1

Absolutely no indication of who she dreamed. Only a couple of posts, discussing rules and strategies. No suspicions or trusted people named.

Conclusion: Nerwen decided to lay low for Day1.


Day2

Originally Posted by Nerwen, first post, directly referring to the Night kills

I'll look Rune's posts over. (Not phantom's. I mean, come on!)

In other news, I think the narration indicates both Lovers are still alive.

You could read this as indication she dreamed of tp on Night2 when he died and that's why she's not going over his posts.

Mild suspicion of Rikae, no clear opinion on dead Rune. Finds Macalaure fishy. Considers morm's behaviour "eyebrow-raising". Jokingly tells Shasta not to leave her, which might or might not be a clue to his innocence. Finds the first Agan-wagon suspicious and doesn't want to indicate Agan is guilty. Wonders if morm and Mac were interacting wolf-on-wolf. Inclined to think tp was an ordo. Confused about Form. Doesn't think Lommy-Agan was wolf-on-wolf. More suspicion of Mac and votes him. Not "entirely easy" on Firefoot and morm.

Conclusion: dreams this far the phantom and Mac, I'm pretty sure about that. Apart from that: Shasta? Agan? Myself? Looks like up next: Firefoot? Maybe myself? I'm really baffled btw that she never checked morm.


Day3

*the day she started talking about her special role*

Assumes Agan was the hunter. Notes Eomer's cryptic statements.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

Also she doesn't think a wolf would have revealed as a lover. I'm getting the vibe she didn't dream of Sally.

Says the dead should check Greenie. Wants opinions on Nilp. Keeps assuming Legate was innocent (possibly as a ruse to hide her own seerdom). Asks opinions about Lottie. Also asks about Eomer and Firefoot. Lommy and Boro are among those she asks opinions from. Also asks thoughts about Boro and Mac. Mildly agrees with theories advocating morm and Agan's innocence. Names Mac and Lottie as wolves.

Conclusion: dreamed this far: the phantom, Mac and Lottie. Possible: Eomer, Firefoot, Boro, Shasta, Lommy, Agan.


Day 4

Not knowledgeable about Lalaith.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Pretty sure Firefoot was innocent, though- can't hurt to let you know that.

That's a dream right there, probably from the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Boro, I had actually thought you might be the secret role for some time, and I don't doubt your reveal, and that you are not on the side of the wolves. I hope you'll understand, though, if I point out that we can't really be sure you're on the side of the village. Just something everyone needs to bear in mind.

Iiiinteresting. Had she dreamed of him, she'd have received a message saying "PREDATOR" or "PREY", right? So did she dream of him and get a PM saying something that's not written in the rules? Does that mean we should be worried about Boro's allegiance? Or is she just saying this because she just thought (no seer dreams involved) he was the special role?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, from what I can work out, we should be looking for the remaining wolves amongst the following people:

Formendacil
McCaber
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Mithalwen
Kath

This is assuming Boro and Sally are telling the truth, of course, but there's good reason to think so.

Indication she has cleared me, Eomer and Shasta. Indication she has a reason to trust Boro and Sally??

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.

This should be ample proof she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta. Really curious about Nilp.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Did I mention it looks as though tp was indeed innocent?

Her making a single post only saying this (combined with what she said about Firefoot earlier) makes me think she would have told us had she dreamed of more dead innocents. I mean, why only tell us about the phantom and Firefoot but not others?

Side note:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now I may have some more to add later. For now, though, in case I can't get online again, I'll just say that the Ranger had better not waste a protection on me. Among other things I don't think I'll be getting any more pms anyway and we've got (effectively) a whole bunch of known innocents now.

This still baffles me. Did Kuru decide to stop giving her dreams because she'd have cleared the wolves too quickly for the game to stay balanced and tell her but not us? Or what? Also "whole bunch of known innocents" again points at me, Eomer and Shasta, not only Boro and Sally. In fact anyone ignoring the proof for me, Shasta and Eomer's innocence looks mighty fishy to me (looking at morm atm). Nerwen is making it very clear.

Another side note:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think?

That's a massive hint hint that we should try to ask about her dreams. I'm not sure why she's still so cryptic though...

Votes Nilp and says it's him "regardless".

Conclusion: Dreamed the phantom, Firefoot, Lottie, Mac, Lommy, Eomer and Nilp. Last dream either Boro or Agan. I really wish I knew...


edit: xed with a bunch

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

.

Here's the problem with that and something I keep coming back to, she said don't vote for them today but never did she indicate innocence. I think we are doing a great disservice by not looking at them. Shasta and Eomer have been a particular concern of mine on those list of 3 so I'm not willing to give them a pass which seems others are.

[mormegil]

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.