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#1 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Finally here properly, though I won't pretend to be anything but very sleepy! Numbers aren't my forte, and with no concrete evidence on how many wolves are left I won't even try to go near statistics, but I've read through (I know who is alive and dead this time I think!) and will try and weigh in.
Starting with: Mith - However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong? If the numbers work (and others with better maths skills than me will need to check that) then this seems like a reasonable plan. The self vote would be an interesting way to do it, as any deviation from the plan could be immediately read as wolvish and give us leads for the next Day. Trying to create a tie has rather failed previously, so may not be the safest way to go. Though, perhaps a Lommy-style paired list where each votes for the other may work to create such a tie?
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#2 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Kath, I would rather go for self vote than arrange a tie, Anyone can abstain if they wish I don't think anyone is in immediate modfire danger and any funny business can be dealt with. Should get a wolf shouldn't lose and innocent.
However if that won't fly I would go for Morm's plan and take fewer options for us to give Dead flexibility. Lommie's seems to risky and as a potential lynchee I prefer to trust the dead who w know must have a majority of angels else the game would be over I think...
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#3 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Someone created this list - I want to say Lommy? Might have been Nerwen ... have updated it with the new information from the narrations.
Alive Innocent Sally Boro Lommy Eomer Shasta Alive Unknown Form McCaber morm Mith Kath Dead Innocent Aganzir Greenie the phantom Firefoot Nerwen Dead Unknown Rikae Nogrod Rune Lalaith Legate Nilp Dead Guilty Mac Lottie The potential dreams from Nerwen seem fairly straightforward. Lommy's analysis of the posts that suggest each dream didn't raise any red flags. I can see morm's argument that Nerwen said 'don't vote' rather than 'trust' or 'innocent' but given she seemed to be playing the role of Seer under the guise of something ... not quite Seerish, then a straightforward 'I dreamed of so-and-so and they were this' doesn't really fit the bill. Though why she stated the phantom's innocence twice is a mystery still. Therefore I agree that votes need to hit: Form McCaber morm Mith Kath I am willing to be part of a try at a tie. If it goes wrong and I die, you won't have lost any special role, but I don't know if we have the numbers to afford losing anyone. Statistics people, any ideas there? Mith's self vote plan sounds like the most fun, but I will defer to those who have been active!
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#4 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Mith what was morm's plan? I've either missed it or not realised it was a plan ...
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#5 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to:
Form Sally McCaber If she's not, give the vote to: Boromir88 Thinlómien Eomer If you don't know give your vote to: mormegil Shastanis Althreduin Mithalwen Kath This one?
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#6 | |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Quote:
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally in his 5.47 post
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#7 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Ok Kath's embracing of the self vote encourages me as to her innocence . . But I can understand that it might be a risk if not all innocent dead are active and we have 2 know stateside wolves who could cause trouble.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#8 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Quick comment - maybe the self vote scheme toMorrow. ToDay it's already getting late and if a lot of the dead have cast their votes early we can easily lynch a known innocent. Plus this way we give Nerwen one more Night to bag a wolf, making the scheme more effective. Also if we do the self vote thing I suggest we agree on it toDay or early toMorrow and the unknowns vote first. If they are innocent they shouldn't have anything against it. If someone messes up we known innocents can vote him/her in turn.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#9 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Quote:
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#10 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Unknown:
Form McCaber morm Mith Kath Known: Sally Boro Lommy Eomer Shasta No one has voted yet right? So can we simply match up pairs? Form <--> sally McCaber <--> Boro morm <--> Lommy Mith <--> Eomer Kath <--> Shasta
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#11 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Quote:
So ... yeah, the logistics are tougher. I am going to have to head to bed in the very near future. I am happy to vote any of that list, but rather feel I should vote Form for continuity or morm because it did feel a little like clutching at straws with Nerwen's possible dreams.
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#12 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
Rest assured, until my very last breath, I will purge this home of the wolves. I don't hold it against anyone to be skeptical (I would be too in your shoes), as long as you don't hold it against me that there are certain things I can't decide for you. As it stands, I'm going under the assumption we can't orchestrate a tied vote today. Therefore... I have a good feeling about Mith today. Her pressing action and plans look the most innocent. I won't vote for sally today either. Shasta's always a tricky one. Once you think he's safe he'll get you. Considering Nerwen and him have a Sun/stars/moon of my life thing that's continued on over the years. It's never certain what they're up to, but considering Nerwen's role, Shasta seems like a safe pair of hands too. I'm up in the air about the rest and therefor that's where my vote will go today... Form Eomer McCaber Morm Lommy Kath
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Fenris Penguin
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#13 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Yeah Mith that's the one I spotted, but that's a plan for the Dead not the Living surely?
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#14 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
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Well yesl That was to allow them flexibility to avoind skewing a free lynch vote. It is only just now that organising the living has become an issue.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#15 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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A self-vote does sound like a good plan, but I still think I'm skeptical of Boro. It just seems like a role screaming to have its own separate agenda apart from the village's own.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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