Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:06 PM

Finally here properly, though I won't pretend to be anything but very sleepy! Numbers aren't my forte, and with no concrete evidence on how many wolves are left I won't even try to go near statistics, but I've read through (I know who is alive and dead this time I think!) and will try and weigh in.

Starting with:

Mith - However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?

If the numbers work (and others with better maths skills than me will need to check that) then this seems like a reasonable plan. The self vote would be an interesting way to do it, as any deviation from the plan could be immediately read as wolvish and give us leads for the next Day. Trying to create a tie has rather failed previously, so may not be the safest way to go. Though, perhaps a Lommy-style paired list where each votes for the other may work to create such a tie?

Mithalwen · 06-10-2015, 03:12 PM

Kath, I would rather go for self vote than arrange a tie, Anyone can abstain if they wish I don't think anyone is in immediate modfire danger and any funny business can be dealt with. Should get a wolf shouldn't lose and innocent.

However if that won't fly I would go for Morm's plan and take fewer options for us to give Dead flexibility. Lommie's seems to risky and as a potential lynchee I prefer to trust the dead who w know must have a majority of angels else the game would be over I think...

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:15 PM

Someone created this list - I want to say Lommy? Might have been Nerwen ... have updated it with the new information from the narrations.

Alive Innocent
Sally
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Alive Unknown
Form
McCaber
morm
Mith
Kath

Dead Innocent
Aganzir
Greenie
the phantom
Firefoot
Nerwen

Dead Unknown
Rikae
Nogrod
Rune
Lalaith
Legate
Nilp

Dead Guilty
Mac
Lottie

The potential dreams from Nerwen seem fairly straightforward. Lommy's analysis of the posts that suggest each dream didn't raise any red flags. I can see morm's argument that Nerwen said 'don't vote' rather than 'trust' or 'innocent' but given she seemed to be playing the role of Seer under the guise of something ... not quite Seerish, then a straightforward 'I dreamed of so-and-so and they were this' doesn't really fit the bill. Though why she stated the phantom's innocence twice is a mystery still.

Therefore I agree that votes need to hit:
Form
McCaber
morm
Mith
Kath

I am willing to be part of a try at a tie. If it goes wrong and I die, you won't have lost any special role, but I don't know if we have the numbers to afford losing anyone. Statistics people, any ideas there?

Mith's self vote plan sounds like the most fun, but I will defer to those who have been active!

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:16 PM

Mith what was morm's plan? I've either missed it or not realised it was a plan ...

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:17 PM

If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to:
Form
Sally
McCaber

If she's not, give the vote to:
Boromir88
Thinlómien
Eomer

If you don't know give your vote to:
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

This one?

Mithalwen · 06-10-2015, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to:
Form
Sally
McCaber

If she's not, give the vote to:
Boromir88
Thinlómien
Eomer

If you don't know give your vote to:
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

This one?

morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

in his 5.47 post

Mithalwen · 06-10-2015, 03:32 PM

Ok Kath's embracing of the self vote encourages me as to her innocence . . But I can understand that it might be a risk if not all innocent dead are active and we have 2 know stateside wolves who could cause trouble.

Thinlómien · 06-10-2015, 03:17 PM

Quick comment - maybe the self vote scheme toMorrow. ToDay it's already getting late and if a lot of the dead have cast their votes early we can easily lynch a known innocent. Plus this way we give Nerwen one more Night to bag a wolf, making the scheme more effective. Also if we do the self vote thing I suggest we agree on it toDay or early toMorrow and the unknowns vote first. If they are innocent they shouldn't have anything against it. If someone messes up we known innocents can vote him/her in turn.

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Quick comment - maybe the self vote scheme toMorrow. ToDay it's already getting late and if a lot of the dead have cast their votes early we can easily lynch a known innocent. Plus this way we give Nerwen one more Night to bag a wolf, making the scheme more effective. Also if we do the self vote thing I suggest we agree on it toDay or early toMorrow and the unknowns vote first. If they are innocent they shouldn't have anything against it. If someone messes up we known innocents can vote him/her in turn.

Makes sense. Do we want to aim for the tie toDay then?

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:22 PM

Unknown:
Form
McCaber
morm
Mith
Kath

Known:
Sally
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

No one has voted yet right? So can we simply match up pairs?

Form <--> sally
McCaber <--> Boro
morm <--> Lommy
Mith <--> Eomer
Kath <--> Shasta

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

Unknown:
Form
McCaber
morm
Mith
Kath

Known:
Sally
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

No one has voted yet right? So can we simply match up pairs?

Form <--> sally
McCaber <--> Boro
morm <--> Lommy
Mith <--> Eomer
Kath <--> Shasta

Wait, tired brain just realised this is a terrible plan, as it could lead to lynching a known innocent with the wolves in the mix! Only the top five should be getting votes at all: Form, McCaber, morm, Mith, Kath.

So ... yeah, the logistics are tougher. I am going to have to head to bed in the very near future. I am happy to vote any of that list, but rather feel I should vote Form for continuity or morm because it did feel a little like clutching at straws with Nerwen's possible dreams.

Boromir88 · 06-10-2015, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

If the numbers work (and others with better maths skills than me will need to check that) then this seems like a reasonable plan. The self vote would be an interesting way to do it, as any deviation from the plan could be immediately read as wolvish and give us leads for the next Day. Trying to create a tie has rather failed previously, so may not be the safest way to go. Though, perhaps a Lommy-style paired list where each votes for the other may work to create such a tie?

It's probably going to be too late and risky for an orchestrated tied vote. I'm bowing out of the Dead relaying information discussion, my aid only goes so far. It's got to be the collective of the village to decide.

Rest assured, until my very last breath, I will purge this home of the wolves. I don't hold it against anyone to be skeptical (I would be too in your shoes), as long as you don't hold it against me that there are certain things I can't decide for you.

As it stands, I'm going under the assumption we can't orchestrate a tied vote today. Therefore...

I have a good feeling about Mith today. Her pressing action and plans look the most innocent. I won't vote for sally today either.

Shasta's always a tricky one. Once you think he's safe he'll get you. Considering Nerwen and him have a Sun/stars/moon of my life thing that's continued on over the years. It's never certain what they're up to, but considering Nerwen's role, Shasta seems like a safe pair of hands too.

I'm up in the air about the rest and therefor that's where my vote will go today...

Form
Eomer
McCaber
Morm
Lommy
Kath

Kath · 06-10-2015, 03:30 PM

Yeah Mith that's the one I spotted, but that's a plan for the Dead not the Living surely?

Mithalwen · 06-10-2015, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

Yeah Mith that's the one I spotted, but that's a plan for the Dead not the Living surely?

Well yesl That was to allow them flexibility to avoind skewing a free lynch vote. It is only just now that organising the living has become an issue.

McCaber · 06-10-2015, 03:54 PM

A self-vote does sound like a good plan, but I still think I'm skeptical of Boro. It just seems like a role screaming to have its own separate agenda apart from the village's own.

06-10-2015, 03:06 PM	#1
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Finally here properly, though I won't pretend to be anything but very sleepy! Numbers aren't my forte, and with no concrete evidence on how many wolves are left I won't even try to go near statistics, but I've read through (I know who is alive and dead this time I think!) and will try and weigh in. Starting with: Mith - However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong? If the numbers work (and others with better maths skills than me will need to check that) then this seems like a reasonable plan. The self vote would be an interesting way to do it, as any deviation from the plan could be immediately read as wolvish and give us leads for the next Day. Trying to create a tie has rather failed previously, so may not be the safest way to go. Though, perhaps a Lommy-style paired list where each votes for the other may work to create such a tie? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:12 PM	#2
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	Kath, I would rather go for self vote than arrange a tie, Anyone can abstain if they wish I don't think anyone is in immediate modfire danger and any funny business can be dealt with. Should get a wolf shouldn't lose and innocent. However if that won't fly I would go for Morm's plan and take fewer options for us to give Dead flexibility. Lommie's seems to risky and as a potential lynchee I prefer to trust the dead who w know must have a majority of angels else the game would be over I think... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

06-10-2015, 03:15 PM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Someone created this list - I want to say Lommy? Might have been Nerwen ... have updated it with the new information from the narrations. Alive Innocent Sally Boro Lommy Eomer Shasta Alive Unknown Form McCaber morm Mith Kath Dead Innocent Aganzir Greenie the phantom Firefoot Nerwen Dead Unknown Rikae Nogrod Rune Lalaith Legate Nilp Dead Guilty Mac Lottie The potential dreams from Nerwen seem fairly straightforward. Lommy's analysis of the posts that suggest each dream didn't raise any red flags. I can see morm's argument that Nerwen said 'don't vote' rather than 'trust' or 'innocent' but given she seemed to be playing the role of Seer under the guise of something ... not quite Seerish, then a straightforward 'I dreamed of so-and-so and they were this' doesn't really fit the bill. Though why she stated the phantom's innocence twice is a mystery still. Therefore I agree that votes need to hit: Form McCaber morm Mith Kath I am willing to be part of a try at a tie. If it goes wrong and I die, you won't have lost any special role, but I don't know if we have the numbers to afford losing anyone. Statistics people, any ideas there? Mith's self vote plan sounds like the most fun, but I will defer to those who have been active! __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:16 PM	#4
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Mith what was morm's plan? I've either missed it or not realised it was a plan ... __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:17 PM	#5
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to: Form Sally McCaber If she's not, give the vote to: Boromir88 Thinlómien Eomer If you don't know give your vote to: mormegil Shastanis Althreduin Mithalwen Kath This one? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:32 PM	#7
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,460	Ok Kath's embracing of the self vote encourages me as to her innocence . . But I can understand that it might be a risk if not all innocent dead are active and we have 2 know stateside wolves who could cause trouble. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

06-10-2015, 03:17 PM	#8
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Quick comment - maybe the self vote scheme toMorrow. ToDay it's already getting late and if a lot of the dead have cast their votes early we can easily lynch a known innocent. Plus this way we give Nerwen one more Night to bag a wolf, making the scheme more effective. Also if we do the self vote thing I suggest we agree on it toDay or early toMorrow and the unknowns vote first. If they are innocent they shouldn't have anything against it. If someone messes up we known innocents can vote him/her in turn. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

06-10-2015, 03:22 PM	#10
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Unknown: Form McCaber morm Mith Kath Known: Sally Boro Lommy Eomer Shasta No one has voted yet right? So can we simply match up pairs? Form <--> sally McCaber <--> Boro morm <--> Lommy Mith <--> Eomer Kath <--> Shasta __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:30 PM	#13
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Yeah Mith that's the one I spotted, but that's a plan for the Dead not the Living surely? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

06-10-2015, 03:54 PM	#15
McCaber Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Skyrim, again. Posts: 820	A self-vote does sound like a good plan, but I still think I'm skeptical of Boro. It just seems like a role screaming to have its own separate agenda apart from the village's own. __________________ Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century.