Middle-earth What-ifs

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

4. If Shelob had killed Frodo.

I think it could have gone 2 ways at least. Shelob discovers the Ring after sucking Frodo dry, or Sam takes it upon himself to finish the quest which he might have an easier time doing at this point than Frodo would, although the influence of the Ring is at its height in its homeland. Could Shelob actually do anything with the Ring herself? I don't know if she can even wear it based on her physical makeup. If Sauron found out she had it I'd think he'd flush her out and take it by force. They were not necessarily friends anyway. But what if she just tossed it away since she could not do anything with it as far as I'm concerned? An orc finds it then what? I doubt an Orc would become the new Dark Lord, not even Aragorn was strong enough to overthrow Sauron with the One face to face. Sam I think would probably finish the quest although giving the Ring back to Frodo and trying to destroy it are not the same thing. There would still be an opportunity for the quest to go on if Frodo was killed.

[denethorthefirst]

I am also of the opinion that the One Ring allowed Sauron to manipulate the Morgoth Element. While this theory is not directly supported by Tolkien (but then he never directly explains how magic works in his world) it makes sense for the following three reasons:
1. Instead of a merely technical ring-controlling tool the One Ring becomes much more mysterious, powerful and dangerous.
2. It makes Sauron a more successful and cunning villain: his ring scheme did only partially fail because the primary function of the ring was to control the Morgoth Element.
3. And last but not least: the theory explaines how Sauron (in a world that is entropic: everyone becomes lesser and loses power over time, even the Valar!) managed to become more powerful with the ring even though his ring scheme failed and he effectively only dominated the nine: he appropriated the dispersed power of his former master.

Tolkien writes that Ainu, once they become fully incarnated, can be killed like the children of iluvatar and are then not able to rematerialize, they stay "dead" (of course they cannot really be destroyed, their spirits are immortal). Tolkien speculates that maybe the disembodied Melkor could achieve reembodiement in the very distant future (but as Tolkien states he is a special case because of his former greatness); There is, besides Sauron, only one case of an incarnated Ainu that was killed and "came back": Gandalf, and that required an intervention by Eru! Those reappearing Umaiar you mentioned are from relatively early in the timeline and were probably only "clothed" and not incarnated. A merely clothed Umaia that is robbed of his form can easily reshape. I guess that during the War of Wrath most of the Umaia had become incarnated and a Balrog that had been killed during that conflict was effectively "dead".

Concerning Gondor: I actually find it quite unbelievable that a Steward (or another house for that matter) would claim the kingship, it goes against the whole upbringing and cultural/national identity of Gondor and the stewards: Gondor is the land of Anarion, a Gondor that no longer is the land of Anarion is no longer Gondor. In order for that to happen the whole identity and culture of the place would have to change (can anyone imagine a monarchic USA, an anti-Semitic Israel, a Protestant Italy or a republican Japan? Same thing.) You're right in that there probably weren't "A lot" of great houses that were more noble than the House of Hurin and had connections to the House of Anarion, but there were at least a few of them and the house of the stewards was not on top, neither socially nor economically.
Maybe if a Steward achieved some otherworldly success that rivaled Elendil he would have a chance to start a new royal line: defeat Mordor, slay Sauron in single combat, significantly enlarge the realm, renewed contact with the elves plus a marriage, etc. - but that's not very likely is it?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

From my point of view, Aranarth didn't even try to claim the Kingship of Arnor, thus he didn't feel able to claim the Kingship of Gondor. His father had been rejected based on the various claims, and I don't think Gondor reckons inheritance of royal status through matrilineal descent. The Line of Isildur had essentially been permanently rejected, and they had rejected claim of descent from Anárion by disallowing inheritance through mothers. Notice that in the entire history of Gondor, no sister-son of a king ever inherited the crown. It was always solely through male descent. Furthermore, Fíriel's own claim was rejected by proxy, when Arvedui used it to bolster his own claim, and the withheld the crown. In a way, one could argue that once a claim on the throne is rejected, a descendant further down the line can't resurrect it via the same justification. He'd have to find a new way to justify his claim on the crown of Gondor.

That being said, there are counter-arguments to this. 1. After the death of Ëarnur, there was no one with sufficiently royal heritage to claim the crown, and thus with all other possible candidates exhausted, withholding the crown from Aranarth (had he pressed a claim) would have been impossible, despite earlier rejections. 2. Aranarth could have done as both Arvedui and, later, Aragorn did, and use their status as the Heir of Elendil to surpass all other claims. Note that when Arvedui mentioned this, the Council of Gondor did not respond: they didn't write back, telling him that his claim didn't matter or was insufficient, as they did when they felt they had grounds for legal refusal, they simply ignored it and went on to crown Ëarnil II. This, to me, was a tacit acknowledgment that he had a valid point, but that it should be clear they weren't going to give him the crown. Once a king had been crowned, it would have taken a war to dethrone him, which Arvedui had neither the strength, nor likely the desire, to do. Aranarth, however, could have made his case before the Council after the death of Ëarnur, and though the council might have hemmed and hawed about it, claiming that Ëarnur's fate was technically unknown, they eventually (in my opinion) would have had to crown Aranarth. Unless they could find some legal means of withholding the crown from him, I don't think they would have been willing to become what amounted to usurpers.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

I don't know if being "of impeccable Númenórean lineage" would be the distinguishing factor in an argument since this standard is applicable to many other Dúnedain in the North or South. The reason his son would probably be rejected too even though there was no legit heir in the South was because of their standards; a descendant of Anárion through the male line which they pointed out was practiced in Arnor too. Aranarth's mom was the daughter of Ondoher, not his son. Therefore he does not meet the standard of "this heritage is reckoned through the sons only". I do wonder why Arvedui would claim the crown of Gondor and then bring up how there was a standard that the eldest child whether man or woman could claim it. If he was using his wife to claim the crown he'd be shooting himself in the foot with this one since she would be the one who'd have the claim and not him.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I don't know if being "of impeccable Númenórean lineage" would be the distinguishing factor in an argument since this standard is applicable to many other Dúnedain in the North or South. The reason his son would probably be rejected too even though there was no legit heir in the South was because of their standards; a descendant of Anárion through the male line which they pointed out was practiced in Arnor too. Aranarth's mom was the daughter of Ondoher, not his son. Therefore he does not meet the standard of "this heritage is reckoned through the sons only". I do wonder why Arvedui would claim the crown of Gondor and then bring up how there was a standard that the eldest child whether man or woman could claim it. If he was using his wife to claim the crown he'd be shooting himself in the foot with this one since she would be the one who'd have the claim and not him.

I'm firmly of the opinion that this would have been a far more effective way to get Arvedui into Gondor. If Fíriel had come herself, acting of her own volition and for her own claim, citing the precedent of Númenorean law and basically daring them to deny her her birthright, I don't know that they could have done it. The Council probably would have realized that Arvedui would have some sway over the rule of Gondor, but there was the example of Herucalmo of Númenor, who was Consort to Tar-Vanimeldë, but functioned as the de facto ruler of Númenor while his wife still lived and then withheld the Sceptre from his son, calling himself Tar-Anducal until his death. The Council might have put a proviso that Arvedui was to remain a Prince of Arnor, and serving as the Prince/King-Consort of Gondor gave him no authority to rule.

But that's all conjecture. Yes, you're right. Fíriel had a better claim to the throne than did Arvedui, and using her claim to bolster his actually weakened her claim, in my opinion. I think if he had gone this route, he might have been able to unite the realms under his son.

[Belegorn]

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

I had an extensive discussion on another forum concerning how Arvedui might have become King of Gondor; I'll quote myself from that website...

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

I know this thread is pretty dead and I might get in trouble for Necromancy, but I feel I have something substantive to contribute. I believe that in such cases necromancy is permissible. If not, I apologize.

I think much of the analysis above is pretty spot on, especially the identification of Pelendur as the main obstacle to Arvedui's and Firiel's ascent as monarchs of Gondor. I think, however, one might also be concerned about Arvedui's lifespan. He made his claim on the crown in 1944, at the age of 80. In the years of his prime for a man of his line, certainly. However, let's examine a few facts...

Arvegil (1553 - 1743, died aged 190)

Arveleg II: (1633 - 1813, lived 180 years)

Araval: (1711 - 1891, lived 180 years)

Araphant: (1789 - 1964, lived 175 years)

Arvedui: (1864 - 1975, lived 111 years, but died of unnatural causes OTL)

The lifespans of even the Northern Kings had been decreasing ever since the time of Arvegil, and in the OTL, no King or Chieftain of the Dunedain reached the Age of 200 from Arveleg until Aragorn...

So, taking into account our POD, which I'm assuming is the decision to stay with the Lossoth until the spring rather than take the ship that subsequently sank, Arvedui lives on as King of Arthedain...

Now, Earnil II reigned until 2043, in which Arvedui, had he lived, would have been 179, and Earnur took the Sceptre. Earnur died only 7 years later, 2050, in which Arvedui would have been 186.

I bring this up because it seems that while this would not be out of the question for a man of Arvedui's lineage, it is longer than the previous three generations before him lived, with a generally decreasing lifespan both before and after.

I bring these points up because I believe them to be relevant. However, I am of the opinion that Malbeth's prophecy indicates that, had he decided not to take the ship that later sank and ended his life prematurely, Arvedui would have outlived the Kings Earnil II and Earnur.

Now, one additional problem with the survival of Arvedui is a possible butterflying away of Earnur's death. However, I don't think a man of Earnur's character could be persuaded to ignore the Witch-King's challenges by Arvedui, nor do I believe he'd even try to consult the Northern King. If the Steward Mardil couldn't convince him not to go, then I don't think Arvedui could or would have. In any case, I believe the prophecy would have necessitated the ending of the Line of Anarion (in the south) while Arvedui still lived, making an early end to Earnur's reign inevitable/necessary.

IOTL, Mardil Voronwe took up the rule of Gondor because there were no men of the line of Anarion left with an acceptable claim of descent. The Kingdom of Arthedain was gone, and Aranarth never pressed a claim on the Kingship of Gondor. However, had Arvedui survived, as King of Arthedain, married to a Princess of Gondor with a valid claim to rule as Queen in her own right, with no remaining claimants for the Stewards to put in their place, the Council of Gondor would have had no reasonable answer to a second claim on the Kingship (especially without the stubborn and haughty Pelendur still fighting the ascendancy of the Heirs of Isildur), thus, uniting the northern and southern Kingdoms of the Dunedain under one Crown, and fulfilling the prophecy that Arvedui would become the King of a great realm. His reign would likely have been short, and he would have probably been quickly succeeded by Aranarth, but the prophecy would have been fulfilled.

As for his new name, as prophecized by Malbeth, I imagine it would have been in a similar fashion to that of Aragorn II, when he took the name Elessar Telcontar as his regnal name. We would have seen some kind of entirely new name and possibly even a new house, to reflect the new dynasty, and the union of the lines of Isildur and Anarion into one crown, ruling all the Dunedain and their former territories.

Gondor and Arthedain's military forces would have easily effected military control over the former territory of Arnor, though with the depleted populations and collapsed governments of Rhudaur and Cardolan, I don't know that any coordinated action would be necessary.

If I remember correctly, the first ten ruling stewards presided over the Watchful Peace, with decreases activity from the enemies of the Dunedain and the Free Peoples in general.

This might also butterfly out of existence the Kingdom of Rohan, but who knows, that is approximately 500 years later. Butterflies would abound and who knows what kind of turns history would have taken?

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

Concerning Gondor: I actually find it quite unbelievable that a Steward (or another house for that matter) would claim the kingship, it goes against the whole upbringing and cultural/national identity of Gondor and the stewards: Gondor is the land of Anarion, a Gondor that no longer is the land of Anarion is no longer Gondor. In order for that to happen the whole identity and culture of the place would have to change (can anyone imagine a monarchic USA, an anti-Semitic Israel, a Protestant Italy or a republican Japan? Same thing.) You're right in that there probably weren't "A lot" of great houses that were more noble than the House of Hurin and had connections to the House of Anarion, but there were at least a few of them and the house of the stewards was not on top, neither socially nor economically.
Maybe if a Steward achieved some otherworldly success that rivaled Elendil he would have a chance to start a new royal line: defeat Mordor, slay Sauron in single combat, significantly enlarge the realm, renewed contact with the elves plus a marriage, etc. - but that's not very likely is it?

I agree with you here, for the most part. Most alternate timelines, in my experience, require some change in order to occur. Some departure from the original series of events that led to history as we know it. In my above discussion of Boromir, the point of departure I envisioned was a difference in the effects of the Morgul wound he suffered defending Osgiliath against the Witch-King's armies. The wound's effects were less physical in nature, he didn't become withered and shrunken as he did in canon, but rather his mind began to become corrupted. His pride increased, and he began to become more practical, ruthless, and greedy, though he was still a mighty warrior, effective leader, and had a strong will, as in canon. This change occurred slowly, but eventually those close to him noticed the change. By that time, he had already begun to move slowly, but surely, toward his plans for claiming the crown. Thus would involve securing the support of Gondorian nobles (no easy task for the very reasons you've mentioned), accomplishing great feats to bolster his reputation and legacy, such as forging alliances with or conquering old enemies of Gondor, and in general manipulating public opinion so that people become more loyal to the current line of rulers, rather than to the memory of kings who died or lost their kingdoms.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

1. Celebrimbor and Celebrian fall in love while Galadriel and Celeborn are in Eregion; the two marry and Galadriel never leaves, staying either a, or the, leader of the realm (depending on your reading of UT).

I'd figure that in the end Sauron would've paraded Galadriel's head around with glee. She was against him even before he revealed his true identity and apparently was not nice to him.

Galadriel seemed to have a plan similar to the duty of the Istari, to bring the various people together to protect themselves from evil. She formed allliance with Moria, and Lorinand and the alliance with the Dwarves really uplifted both realms in Eregion and in Moria. Had Galadriel stayed in Eregion might they have been better prepared to deal with Sauron by informing their allies of the possibility of his coming forth and mustering their strength to deal with it in concert?

When Sauron did come to sack Eregion he was met by a force from Gil-galad led by Elrond. Only later after the sacking of Eregion and nearly destroying Elrond's force the dwarves saved him from being destroyed along with a force from Lorinand. Clearly they did not all come together at once and how things might have been different I do not know. I do know that Eregion and Gil-galad's forces under Elrond could not deal with Sauron's forces. When Elrond's forces were aided by the dwarves of Moria and the Elves of Lorinand the Dwarves were chased to Moria and Elrond retreated to Rivendell.

At this time Eregion was missing a portion of it's people who left with Galadriel after the Gwaith-i-Mírdain took over. How much of a blow was this remnant departing from the land to the power of Eregion I do not know. So if Galadriel stays, these people do not leave with her, she's got allliances with Lorinand and Moria, and perhaps there is better communication and preparation for the onslaught. Obviously the Elves know about Sauron several years before he makes it to Eregion. Maybe they let Sauron come in to attack Eregion while the dwarves of Moria and the Elves of Lorinand keep a close eye on his movements and follow them in the rear as they go on to meet a buffered force in Eregion with forces from Gil-galad. Maybe Sauron retreats being met with a coordinated force like this. Maybe Galadriel and her allies plan something different. I know when Sauron invaded Eriador the people there were not necessarily coordinated and were only saved by the Dúnedain who came in later in the nick of time.

Then there is no Arwen or her brothers. What happens with Aragorn, or does Aragorn even need her or is in the position he was in the 3rd Age? Perhaps Númenor is still around and he's like the 50th king of the realm by then.

[The Mouth of Sauron]

Imagine if Ted Sandyman had eloped with Rosie Cotton before Sam got back?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by The Mouth of Sauron

Imagine if Ted Sandyman had eloped with Rosie Cotton before Sam got back?

The Cottons would have ensured he'd have been a dead Sandyman.