Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Lalaith]

Hmmm.
I've just been reading the rules again and have managed to spot an obvious flaw in my thesis - there are no reveals allowed so any co-operation would have to be done on the basis of 'hints and speculation' which could be very risky.

However, that being said, unless McCaber turns up toDAY we are going to lose him.

Good point. And on that note I will make sure to vote toDay. Sorry about yesterDay - I really was too tired and confused to make a decision. Being on GMT will mean me having to vote very early each Day, btw.

[Loslote]

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.

[Lalaith]

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized.

Right - so the Bard has to guess beforehand who the Conspirators will target, but the Herbalist can act on information given?

[Thinlómien]

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Originally Posted by Boro

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Maybe. I wouldn't say it's obvious, but I would consider it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I said I find his polite and 'Distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules' stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic.

That addled, huh? Wow.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

At this point I'm wondering if someone shouldn't be reported by the Rep toNight.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game. And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game.

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

Originally Posted by Loslote

And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

x/d with Kuru

[Kuruharan]

Behold my Creation!

UPDATED NO LYNCH SCENARIO – WORST CASE OF NO SUCCESSFUL SAVES
Day One
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Two
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Three
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1

Day Four
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2

Day Five
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3

Day Six – Ride of the Rohirrim
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4

The passive route is more doable now. If the gifteds can block/save one more time and one of them lives, then the wolves can't kill us fast enough to win.

But, and it is a big but, both gifteds have to survive.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.

You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?

Just a bit eyebrow-raising, especially the last sentence. Could be read as Wolflomien testing the waters of suspicion on either an innocent Zil or a Wolfzil.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

Very eyebrow-raising, given that Lottie's "case" against me really doesn't make much sense- but what wolf could resist encouraging one almost-known-innocent to go after the other?

It may be nothing more than rusty playing, of course- but still, I think "something to consider".

Edit: x'd since Lommy at #105.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

I agree that my claiming to be demoralised doesn't prove it- that is self-evident. Your particular scenario is pretty far-fetched however, as you admit yourself- and yet somehow not one but two players find it compelling, to the point where one of them is now actually proposing me as a lynch-candidate.

I say that, regardless of what course we decide on toDay, Lommy and Zil really need to be watched.

Edit: x'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

Simply - out of all the people, not that anybody said anything much, it was Day 1 and all, you know the drill - out of all the people, he would be the one whose way of acting seemed the most worthy of suspicion to me. It was the general tone of his posts which seemed to me different from the innocent Inzil I know, but that's about it. Also (but that is not a suspicion-worthy thing overall, just something that marked him in the limited field of Day 1) has been a certain confusing tone to him which actually persists until toDay (I totally didn't get his questions regarding Nerwen?), although that is purely just confusing and I don't know what to make of it. So that is not the question. As for now, I still have some raised eyebrow over him, but that may be a residue from yesterDay and partly also the confusion (as in, what is he trying to say? Moreover, for what purpose?).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.

Point taken. That's really what I said about the game being now a question of "strategy" rather than "tactics". The balance is on the long-term rather than short-term stuff. The WWs of course can kill us freely, however, that's the only thing they can do - and, as we have seen this morning, even that might not work at all! We still have two "Rangers", effectively. If I now take the basic non-vote case as an example: we lynch nobody and WWs kill people on Night 3, Night 4 and Night 5. If they don't manage to kill the two Gifteds, we are ok in numbers. And on top of everything, there is still a chance the Gifteds protect some of the people.

Whereas if we lynch people, therefore making the village smaller, we are also giving the WWs bigger chance of targeting the Gifteds (if I discount the risk of accidentally lynching a Gifted ourselves).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".

I suggest to look for Wolves. For certain. That's even why I stated who I would want to vote for yesterDay to lynch if I had to, even though at that point it was really based on almost zero info (Day 1...). I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.

The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.

I agree with this. However, I would like to point out that so far more or less nobody seemed to be doing that. It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.

I said as much already yesterDay: People should say whom do they suspect, early enough, and then also select the Rep. If we are hunting Wolves, the game forces us to actually go through the process of selecting a candidate twice, because first we should decide who we suspect, and then cast the vote for the Rep. (That, granted, can be done pretty quickly if we see who is the most "trustworthy" when it comes to sending in the name of the person we want to see lynched, but it does require everyone saying who they would lynch, because that way we can know whom to vote as Rep!!!)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.

Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.

Agreed agreed, as has been said many times. Just for the time being, I am not yet decided what would my preference for toDay be. If we don't get a clear picture whom we want to lynch, we can afford not doing it and it might be fine. We got ourselves an extra Day, after all. But if we get some good idea whom to lynch, let's do it, by all means.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)

Well one obvious catch, as Nerwen mentioned, is the fact that the Wolves will be here in full strength, all the time. And that they can theoretically win just by killing two Gifteds. But they can do it in any case, of course. It is really mostly about what do we decide to do.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

And at least as long as we don't get a competing sick-person, we should probably assume that whoever is sick is sick. The same goes for Nerwen toDay. I can imagine a scenario where a Wolf might try to fake it, but I think it would require too much risk on their part. Unless, of course, unless they felt already threatened by the danger of being "waited out" by the village. If so, they probably would want to act as soon as possible. For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

This just as an addendum to what I just said; I also think it unlikely the WWs would target Cab, and it would be fairly complicated. But see above.

But anyway: we are probably losing McCaber toNight, so that is one more point to consider in regards to the ratio of living people vs. total of WWs etc., so... well.

My thoughts about people toDay to follow... maybe rather in a different post, this is probably long already, and maybe someone will post meanwhile.

EDIT: x-ed after Lommy... whoa whoa, what an activity suddenly

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

Hey, good perception there! Because that crossed my mind as well, that the WWs might forgo a kill, but now this actually is out of question. And I really, really find it hard that they would bet on killing McCaber. That's too much overcombination to begin with, and too risky if he turned up. Or even a risk if modfires actually are written into the narration as normal deaths, or as something else.

Hmm. I flip-flopped a couple of times while reading the previous stuff, but I am more inclined to trust Nerwen for the time being. She is being somewhat defensive, to be sure, but overall - after considering what Lottie just pointed out - I would think it more likely that Nerwen's utterly dismayed state is genuine.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

Not sending a name would be a risky strategy worth trying. But since that didn't happen... sending Cab's name would be much riskier strategy and not worth trying, in my opinion. Of course depends on the Wolves, but really - if they wanted to do that, the logical thing would be not to send a name and then pretend to be sick, not to send a name and hope the person is modfired.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

EDIT: x-ed with two Nerwens

[Loslote]

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith

[Thinlómien]

Okay, now I'm pretty conflicted about Nerwen, I didn't expect such an outburst.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.
The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering).

Originally Posted by Legate

That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

Lottie, you up for some democracy?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

x/d with Lottie and Kuru

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

I haven't managed to catch up to all the posts I missed while posting earlier, but I had to pause and say a million times this.

Whatever else we decide to do toDAY, no Nerwen for rep toDAY!

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now.

Lottie's understanding of how the gifteds roles work is in accord with my own.

I am working on an updated numbers post.

I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.

[Lalaith]

I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.

I think people have been turning up and finding themselves alone.
Poor Nerwen talking to herself all morning, then I was just nattering on to myself just now...