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#1 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Hmmm.
I've just been reading the rules again and have managed to spot an obvious flaw in my thesis - there are no reveals allowed so any co-operation would have to be done on the basis of 'hints and speculation' which could be very risky. Quote:
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#2 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#3 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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#4 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)
The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes. Quote:
The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though. I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#5 | ||||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#6 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game. And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#7 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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x/d with Kuru
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#8 |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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Behold my Creation!
UPDATED NO LYNCH SCENARIO – WORST CASE OF NO SUCCESSFUL SAVES Day One Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Day Two Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Day Three Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead Player 1 Day Four Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead Player 1 Player 2 Day Five Player 4 Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Day Six – Ride of the Rohirrim Player 5 Player 6 Player 7 Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 The passive route is more doable now. If the gifteds can block/save one more time and one of them lives, then the wolves can't kill us fast enough to win. But, and it is a big but, both gifteds have to survive.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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#9 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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It may be nothing more than rusty playing, of course- but still, I think "something to consider". Edit: x'd since Lommy at #105.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 10-29-2016 at 01:19 PM. |
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#10 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#11 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I say that, regardless of what course we decide on toDay, Lommy and Zil really need to be watched. Edit: x'd with Legate.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#12 | |||||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Whereas if we lynch people, therefore making the village smaller, we are also giving the WWs bigger chance of targeting the Gifteds (if I discount the risk of accidentally lynching a Gifted ourselves). Quote:
The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly. Quote:
I said as much already yesterDay: People should say whom do they suspect, early enough, and then also select the Rep. If we are hunting Wolves, the game forces us to actually go through the process of selecting a candidate twice, because first we should decide who we suspect, and then cast the vote for the Rep. (That, granted, can be done pretty quickly if we see who is the most "trustworthy" when it comes to sending in the name of the person we want to see lynched, but it does require everyone saying who they would lynch, because that way we can know whom to vote as Rep!!!) Quote:
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And at least as long as we don't get a competing sick-person, we should probably assume that whoever is sick is sick. The same goes for Nerwen toDay. I can imagine a scenario where a Wolf might try to fake it, but I think it would require too much risk on their part. Unless, of course, unless they felt already threatened by the danger of being "waited out" by the village. If so, they probably would want to act as soon as possible. For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case. Quote:
But anyway: we are probably losing McCaber toNight, so that is one more point to consider in regards to the ratio of living people vs. total of WWs etc., so... well. My thoughts about people toDay to follow... maybe rather in a different post, this is probably long already, and maybe someone will post meanwhile. EDIT: x-ed after Lommy... whoa whoa, what an activity suddenly
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#13 | |||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Hmm. I flip-flopped a couple of times while reading the previous stuff, but I am more inclined to trust Nerwen for the time being. She is being somewhat defensive, to be sure, but overall - after considering what Lottie just pointed out - I would think it more likely that Nerwen's utterly dismayed state is genuine. Quote:
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EDIT: x-ed with two Nerwens
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#14 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.
I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's Quote:
Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#15 | |||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Okay, now I'm pretty conflicted about Nerwen, I didn't expect such an outburst.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#16 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy. x/d with Lottie and Kuru
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#17 | |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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Whatever else we decide to do toDAY, no Nerwen for rep toDAY!
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... Last edited by Kuruharan; 10-29-2016 at 02:23 PM. Reason: Why can't I spell? |
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#18 | |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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I am working on an updated numbers post. I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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#19 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Poor Nerwen talking to herself all morning, then I was just nattering on to myself just now...
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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