Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't know if I'd call Lonmy unsuspected at the time of her death - I certainly suspected her, at the very least. Mith I do agree on, though, I can't think of anyone who really suspected her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't know if I'd call Lonmy unsuspected at the time of her death - I certainly suspected her, at the very least. Mith I do agree on, though, I can't think of anyone who really suspected her.

Not widely suspected, I meant.

Well, now that you're here, my treasure, I'd like to hear your thoughts on everyone.

Especially Nog. I am thinking maybe I shouldn't have started second-guessing myself at the end there, because on reading through his game he has posted a *lot*, but nearly all of it has consisted of arguing the undesirability of trying to communicate with the Dead, with an interlude where he became equally preoccupied with the question of whether the rules technically allowed Wolf1 to have been created Night2. And by yesterDay he was becoming downright obstructive. Yet, as I said, there is also the fact that he just kept on going even after he was obviously attracting suspicion- shouldn't a baddie have been more cautious?

[Brinniel]

Mith isn't a surprising choice to me as she seems like a no-trace kill. I don't recall her really being suspected by anyone and with her vote not getting posted due to technical difficulties, the Living might never know her suspicions yesterDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Mith isn't a surprising choice to me as she seems like a no-trace kill. I don't recall her really being suspected by anyone and with her vote not getting posted due to technical difficulties, the Living might never know her suspicions yesterDay.

Ah, but why do a no trace kill at this stage?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ah, but why do a no trace kill at this stage?

Not sure, perhaps some players were starting to suspect them and they worried killing them off instead would be too obvious. Or if there's a hunter, that one of them would be targeted.

Or maybe they chose her because they didn't think she would be protected by the ranger.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I said I would take a closer look at Legate, and I decided to do so tonight while I have time.

I believe someone mentioned earlier he seems wishy-washy in his opinions and I see what they mean.

On Day One, he stated he liked the non-lynch idea, but was non-committal about it.

Originally Posted by Legate

Numerically, it might make sense, if the village can agree on this. On the other hand, Morsul has a point in saying that the odds won't necessarily change very much. But I am all for at least considering that option.

By the end of the Day, he votes for Boromir and indicates that he's trying to tie the votes. Maybe he was, but with the last-minute timing, an evil Legate could've just said that while hoping for a lynch.

He also latched onto the Nerwen-Inzil spat without fully committing to it:

Originally Posted by Legate

Inziladun - okay, now upon re-reading, his reaction to Nerwen escalated in such a rapid way that it really makes my alarm bells ring. However, all his posting earlier was pretty normal, so I would prefer not to vote him solely on the basis of that one instance.

In general, all of his opinions on other players are a bit wishy-washy and non-committal...except for Boromir.

Legate voted for Boro all three Days, and even with those votes, his suspicions of Boro weren't exactly strong ones.

YesterDay, I mentioned the possibility of Legate being a newly turned wolf with his change of focus on the Dead Thread. And he did talk a lot about the Dead Thread, though I don't think he was as distracting about it as others. I honestly don't see any real shift in behavior, and so I'm starting to think if he is a baddie, there's a good chance he has been for awhile.

In conclusion, Legate has moved up on my suspicion list. He's joined by Eonwe and Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Nerwen and Boro for reasons I listed yesterDay.

Alright, it's getting really late, so it's off to bed for me.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Especially Nog. I am thinking maybe I shouldn't have started second-guessing myself at the end there, because on reading through his game he has posted a *lot*, but nearly all of it has consisted of arguing the undesirability of trying to communicate with the Dead, with an interlude where he became equally preoccupied with the question of whether the rules technically allowed Wolf1 to have been created Night2. And by yesterDay he was becoming downright obstructive. Yet, as I said, there is also the fact that he just kept on going even after he was obviously attracting suspicion- shouldn't a baddie have been more cautious?

Unless he's not the only wolf and believes whenever he got turned his days are numbered, so why not obstruct? And there would be at least a days delay to the living if he's lynched and a wolf.

It probably doesn't help hearing from me, but if I'm ever turned, it's very similar to how I would be playing the part of a wolf if I knew the EW hadn't spent all choices yet.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Unless he's not the only wolf and believes whenever he got turned his days are numbered, so why not obstruct? And there would be at least a days delay to the living if he's lynched and a wolf.

It probably doesn't help hearing from me, but if I'm ever turned, it's very similar to how I would be playing the part of a wolf if I knew the EW hadn't spent all choices yet.

Good point. I'm rather wishing I hadn't made that post- especially as there was a sudden run of Lottie-votes while I was typing it, and I think lynching her may have been a mistake.

Now, what about Legate? If Nog's a wolf, could a Legwolf have seized on a chance not to have to follow through on his "suspicion"? Or is it just honest doubt, given that there is a history of innocent Nog developing that kind of laser-beam focus on a single topic?

[Lalaith]

So we are now ten and perhaps four of us are bad. I really hope Lottie was a wolf.
I'm in a rush to go to work now but will hopefully be able to post a bit more later. Annoyingly, I have also lost all the notes I made about the voting and its implications...but I wanted to put out there what's been worrying me all Night.

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff, then risks his own vote, holding off until deadline, only to vote for Eonwe who as far as he knew only had one vote and thus his vote wouldn't make any difference anyway. However, as it happened, had his vote been allowed, it would have resulted in a no-lynch, because Brinn was empowered, and we would have had a draw.
Now, then I realised, the wolves already would know what the Dead would tell us - that Zil was innocent. This would mean that the wolves also knew into which "group" the empowerment would go. (As Zil was innocent he was likely to co-operate and thus the 'none of the above' category was unlikely to be used)
So, empowerment would go to either Boro (v unlikely as he said he probably couldn't vote) Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.
Given that Eomer and I had already contributed 2 out of the 3 votes to Lottie, if one of us got empowered Lottie would be unsavable. Eonwe voted for Nogs - if his vote had been empowered, we would have had another draw. As it happened, it was Brinn who got the empowerment which, had Nogs' late vote counted, would also have resulted in a draw.
So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

You can see that my previous post is timed at .59 (I made the mistake of answering Lottie who asked me a straight question) - and realized the time at the moment. The 30-second rule prevented me from posting my vote any earlier than I was then able to do - but you can see that I managed to post another one on .00 - so my vote was more or less a few seconds after .00. Yeah, I didn't manage to vote as Kuru was really on top of the hour. But that was in no way planned, but just a mistake (answering to Lottie at the last minute).

That simple.

[Nogrod]

Btw.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff

This is incorrect as well: don't take all Nerwen says at face-value but look at the thread. I spent the last couple of hours not on rules talk but trying to find a wolf - I even got a bit frustrated with Eönwe because he was doing that still an hour before the DL and posted this:

Originally Posted by Nog

Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them.

I had to comment on the rules half an hour before the DL because my reason to suspect several people actually hung on it - and I realized I had read the rules wrong and stood corrected - but other than that I spent the last couple of hours talking about who to lynch, not the rules as such (unlike some others...).

Okay. 'nuff of that.


On other issues: I just remembered I did make a tally of the votes yesterDay - so here...

D3 voting

.48 Eomer -> Lottie
.49 Sally -> Lottie 2
.49 Lalaith -> Lottie 3
.54 Brinniel -> Eönwe
.54 Legate -> Boro
.56 Lottie -> Boro 2
.56 Nerwen -> Nog
.58 Eönwe -> Nog 2
.59 Shasta -> Legate

+ voter empowerment: Eönwe 2


EDIT: Triple-posting - will be away now then.

[Lalaith]

Ok Nogs, I can actually see a scenario too where you are innocent, but why the exciting drama of holding back on your vote til the last minute - only to vote for Eonwe - a vote which, as far as you knew, if you were innocent, would make no difference?
Why say this to Eonwe two hours before deadline:

Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them

and then do nowt but talk about rules and stuff instead of who to vote for, yourself?
And what was this supposed to mean?

I might vote for Lottie to help my own chances of survival - and I do suspect her indeed - did it from the early on.

Now I'm just wondering whether it is the right thing to do - aka do I have a better choice that would also affect something...

A tie for Eonwe would have saved Lottie. An innocent Nogs could not have really guessed that Brinn would have been empowered. You could also have saved Lottie in a much more straightforward way - if that was indeed your aim - by voting for Boro, but you didn't. Which does in fact speak well of you, unless you also had reasons not to lynch Boro.

Anyway one thing is clear from all of this that Eonwe's idea from early yesterDay, of slicing us down into little portions for the Dead to choose from, really is not wise, as it gives the wolves too much of a pointer on who will get empowered and thus where to steer the lynching.
Eonwe's "small portions" plan would have left the Dead, incidentally, with a choice of Boro, Brinn or Eomer. As they chose Brinn anyway, this doesn't look hugely incriminating for Eonwe as being an attempt at wolf-steering the Dead empowerment, but still....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If this doesn't sound like a false or forced concern / alarm, I'm not sure what would. We have no idea about our situation whatsoever (well, we might be able to infer that Zil was innocent - or then the Dead shared my concern on Eönwe) and it is just D4 in a game of Dueling Wizards where more or less anything can happen.

Naturally, we should lynch a wolf toDay, but opening the Day with "Okay, we really need to" sounds like something a Wolf would say after thinking how an innocent would open a Day.

Sorry, but that's nonsense. We do not *know* how things stand, and if the worst case scenario is true we're in quite a fix. That is simply a fact.

Originally Posted by Nog

I agree I have used a lot of time discussing those issues - and have not been the only one to be quite occupied with the rule / strategy -talk *coughEönwecough*. But unlike some others who have discussed a lot about that kind of issues, I have also ended that discussion in time to go actually into the bussiness of considering the lynches, trying to find suspicious things and been there discussing the lynch so that we could make reasonable decisions (unlike some who post lengthy strategy-manuals just before the DL - why is that not suspicious to you Nerwen?).

Who do you say did that? Steve?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

You can see that my previous post is timed at .59 (I made the mistake of answering Lottie who asked me a straight question) - and realized the time at the moment. The 30-second rule prevented me from posting my vote any earlier than I was then able to do - but you can see that I managed to post another one on .00 - so my vote was more or less a few seconds after .00. Yeah, I didn't manage to vote as Kuru was really on top of the hour. But that was in no way planned, but just a mistake (answering to Lottie at the last minute).

That simple.

This is a fair point. And all the votes fell so close together yesterDay that I doubt anyone, guilty or innocent, was on top of things enough to make the kind of calculating move Lalaith seems to suggest.

[Lalaith]

Ok now I must really get on with my actual RL work for a bit.
But before I go...the list for the Dead. (sorry dead Mith, hope this doesn't rile you!)

There should be enough innocents in the dead thread to ensure a vote on Lottie so would it be better (given the empowerment issues I highlighted earlier) to make the 'none of the above' group smaller than the other two? I'm using Kuru's Living list here btw:

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë

None of the above
Nogrod
Brinniel

We could even just divide us into two groups of five, prey and predator, and tell the dead not to empower anyone if there has been a 'none of the above' issue?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

Innocent of what though? We both know innocence is all based on one's point of view.

++Legate

Call it retaliation voting, but the way I see I'm not close to evening the score. He's got a 3 vote head start on me. The tunnel focus is rather unusual and strange from Legate.

I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is.

You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Innocent of what though? We both know innocence is all based on one's point of view.

++Legate

Call it retaliation voting, but the way I see I'm not close to evening the score. He's got a 3 vote head start on me. The tunnel focus is rather unusual and strange from Legate.

I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is.

You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?

I like everything about this post.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff, then risks his own vote, holding off until deadline, only to vote for Eonwe who as far as he knew only had one vote and thus his vote wouldn't make any difference anyway. However, as it happened, had his vote been allowed, it would have resulted in a no-lynch, because Brinn was empowered, and we would have had a draw.
Now, then I realised, the wolves already would know what the Dead would tell us - that Zil was innocent. This would mean that the wolves also knew into which "group" the empowerment would go. (As Zil was innocent he was likely to co-operate and thus the 'none of the above' category was unlikely to be used)
So, empowerment would go to either Boro (v unlikely as he said he probably couldn't vote) Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.
Given that Eomer and I had already contributed 2 out of the 3 votes to Lottie, if one of us got empowered Lottie would be unsavable. Eonwe voted for Nogs - if his vote had been empowered, we would have had another draw. As it happened, it was Brinn who got the empowerment which, had Nogs' late vote counted, would also have resulted in a draw.
So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

This is actually an interesting thought. I've realised I don't have time to look as in-detail as I'd like, but to make it easier for others if they want to take a look, I've combined the DT-voting list with the LT votes (where G, E, U, stand for whether their empowerment would mean that Zil was Good, Evil, or Unknown):

Eomer (G) --> Lottie
Sally (U) --> Lottie (2)
Lalaith (G) --> Lottie (3)
Brinn (G) --> Eonwe
Legate (E) --> Boro
Lottie (E) --> Boro (2)
Nerwen (E) --> Nog
Eonwe (G) --> Nog (2)
Shasta (U) --> Legate
(Nog (U) --> Eonwe)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, we really need to get a wolf toDay.

If this doesn't sound like a false or forced concern / alarm, I'm not sure what would. We have no idea about our situation whatsoever (well, we might be able to infer that Zil was innocent - or then the Dead shared my concern on Eönwe) and it is just D4 in a game of Dueling Wizards where more or less anything can happen.

Naturally, we should lynch a wolf toDay, but opening the Day with "Okay, we really need to" sounds like something a Wolf would say after thinking how an innocent would open a Day.


On other issues:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

on reading through his game he has posted a *lot*, but nearly all of it has consisted of arguing the undesirability of trying to communicate with the Dead, with an interlude where he became equally preoccupied with the question of whether the rules technically allowed Wolf1 to have been created Night2.

I agree I have used a lot of time discussing those issues - and have not been the only one to be quite occupied with the rule / strategy -talk *coughEönwecough*. But unlike some others who have discussed a lot about that kind of issues, I have also ended that discussion in time to go actually into the bussiness of considering the lynches, trying to find suspicious things and been there discussing the lynch so that we could make reasonable decisions (unlike some who post lengthy strategy-manuals just before the DL - why is that not suspicious to you Nerwen?).