Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Okay. As I may not be able to get on again later-

++Nogrod

I have been vacillating, but there are just too many flags out.

I don't want to leave it at this- if I have time, I will look at Legate and Sally, who has been a real submarine, which I would expect from at least one of the baddies. Also perhaps Brinn, mainly as being the other leader of the "lynch Eönwë" movement. I get the meta reasoning that Eönwë might have been chosen as a wolf, but without some better indication, I think it's really odd to try to lynch someone who has arguably been the single most productive player.

I am also concerned about Boro as- what I said last Night- a "default lynch". I was doubtful about him earlier in the game, but my feeling is that he was just being silly then and is actually quite unlikely to have been turned since precisely because he was under suspicion.

That's all for now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Need to really re-read the last page or so, but I also am becoming uncomfortable with Sally. Something about her style seems off, though it's difficult to articulate exactly.

Now to try and take a look at Nog since he's come up a lot in discussion today. I'd still personally lean toward voting Legate for now, though.

[Lalaith]

1. Why,why, WHY did Nogs throw in what looked like a 'wasted' vote for Eonwe after deadline when his own neck was on the line along with that of Lottie and Boro?
2. Is there any possible way Eonwe and Nogs could be on the same side?
3. Why do both Nerwen and Eomer trust Eonwe' innocence so much?
4. Why are Sally and Shasta so damn quiet?
5. Wouldn't Brinn have been a great candidate for wolf conversion?
6. Am I being a real airhead by vaguely trusting Nerwen and Legate to be innocents?
7. How has Boro survived this long?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm back! And very suspicious of everyone.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm back! And very suspicious of everyone.

Word.

(And I was hoping to go to sleep early finally this Day... but we were watching GoT with a buch of people - Legate and Lommy icluded.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Now we're at the business end of the game, where everyone appears to have acted suspiciously, I'm becoming more and more inclined to vote based on who I would have picked were I the EW. Not very scientific, but there you go.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I get the meta reasoning that Eönwë might have been chosen as a wolf, but without some better indication, I think it's really odd to try to lynch someone who has arguably been the single most productive player.

I agree that suspecting someone on the sole grounds that they could make a good wolf conversion candidate is not a good enough reason to want to lynch them. My reason for voting for Eonwe yesterDay was because I found his Inzil vote suspicious combined with his extended focus on the Dead Thread.

I think it's also good to keep in mind that just because someone is the most productive player, it doesn't make them more innocent. I've found in many WW games that the most productive players turned out to be wolves.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

1. Why,why, WHY did Nogs throw in what looked like a 'wasted' vote for Eonwe after deadline when his own neck was on the line along with that of Lottie and Boro?
2. Is there any possible way Eonwe and Nogs could be on the same side?
3. Why do both Nerwen and Eomer trust Eonwe' innocence so much?
4. Why are Sally and Shasta so damn quiet?
5. Wouldn't Brinn have been a great candidate for wolf conversion?
6. Am I being a real airhead by vaguely trusting Nerwen and Legate to be innocents?
7. How has Boro survived this long?

I'm quiet cause I'm sick.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

1. Why,why, WHY did Nogs throw in what looked like a 'wasted' vote for Eonwe after deadline when his own neck was on the line along with that of Lottie and Boro?

I was trying to make it in time but was just late (waiting for that 30 second rule, like I told you). I did consider voting Lottie but it kind of felt cowardish because all I had on her was that I suspected her, had the feeling she was on the evil side - but I do most often suspect her so that isn't much to go for. Therefore I decided to stick to my real suspicions and see what happens as it wasn't exactly clear who were yet to vote and whom the Dead might empower.

2. Is there any possible way Eonwe and Nogs could be on the same side?

Of course there is - even if that would be a sad state of affairs looking at the mutual suspicion.

3. Why do both Nerwen and Eomer trust Eonwe' innocence so much?

There is at least one simple answer - although the question should probably be put more precisely: "Why do both Nerwen and Eomer say they trust Eönwe's innocence so much?"

4. Why are Sally and Shasta so damn quiet?

I see Shasta already answering. Sally then, could be busy in RL? That's always an option. But it might make her a good target to convert into a wolf as well.

5. Wouldn't Brinn have been a great candidate for wolf conversion?

Probably even better than Sally. Mith would have been even better so it's kind of odd she died last Night. Maybe some of those strange things going on?

6. Am I being a real airhead by vaguely trusting Nerwen and Legate to be innocents?

With the former? Yes. With the latter? I don't know. I don't get an evil feeling from him just the normalish to-and-fro - but with the same breath I must say his early "point" toDay against Boro was quite odd - I mean he'd have jumped on that kind of a suggestion by someone else himself.

7. How has Boro survived this long?

There have been "better" candidates to lynch?

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm becoming more and more inclined to vote based on who I would have picked were I the EW. Not very scientific, but there you go.

Not a bad strategy. It is at least a POV worth looking things from.

PS. quite funny that I have two votes - one from someone who speculates on different things happening here interpreted through the premise that the wolves have the upper hand in the Dead Thread, and by one who makes a special show how the wolves fill the Living Thread...

[Lalaith]

I've been putting the pieces of the jigsaw together in different ways and here's a quartet of evil that might fit together: Eomer, Eonwe, Shasta and Boro.

When I make Nogs a baddie, fewer pieces fit.

What is depressing is that even if Lottie was evil the EW could have made another wolf last night instead.
I feel very worried about our prospects, innocents.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I've been putting the pieces of the jigsaw together in different ways and here's a quartet of evil that might fit together: Eomer, Eonwe, Shasta and Boro.

Unless Boro was the first pick by the EW (possible but not probable - looking at Boro's behaviour in the end of D1?), it would have been pretty daring from the EW to pick him. Could Boro be the EW? Well his D1 behaviour would have been even more daring in that case.

Originally Posted by Eomer

There's one or two quieter types in there. What I need to consider is: how safe is the quiet wolf in this place?

Looks like pretty safe indeed.

Looking at it from the other direction: whom the EW should not have picked aka. who are those people you'd lose as lynchees more probably than not quite early in the game? It's like looking at the people who are now Dead (whichever way they died) Inzil, Lottie, Lommy - they tend to get lynched quite often, quite early. Same actually fits me - and my predicament doesn't look that easy right now either.

Which is kind of a scary thought - if Zil and Lottie were both innocents (too risky for the EW to pick) - we have then lynched only innocents (and if Eönwe and Nerwen have it their way with me you lose third innocent). Well, maybe those Nightly oddities meant our gifteds are doing it better than we are.

[Lalaith]

Unless Boro was the first pick by the EW (possible but not probable - looking at Boro's behaviour in the end of D1?),

well he could have been a wolf trying to get into the Dead Thread early to mess it up...