Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

But what about this from Boro's lynch:

"Those who knew his head would sheer off were mad with glee."

What's this about? Who could have known he wasn't a wizard? Was he the one double-targeted on the previous night, and this info was passed along to the wolves? Maybe. Has there really only been 2 wolves this whole time?

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Wishful thinking maybe.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Are you including the Ranger blocking a pick as a Ranger save? Or do you just mean from a kill? Because if the former is the case, then if you're right, we have to assume that the thwarting is in the form of the pickee already being converted by the other side, in which case it seems more likely that it is the EW being blocked. The GW only has two picks that are blockable in such a way, and I imagine that the Ranger was probably assigned on N1 (I mean, I know that's what I would do as the GW), so it's really only a Hunter pick that could be so blocked. Given that we're still alive, we know the EW only has a maximum of two wolves, and therefore (unless both Boro and Nog are wolves, in which case the Ranger assumption is wrong) would have had at least one pick left last Night, which I imagine they would use ASAP as the size of the village decreases and therefore the Wizards' Duel draws nearer.


This is all pretty worrying because it means that if the evil side does have 2 wolves, we need to vote correctly toDay to not lose the game.


edit:x-posted with a few

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kuru, is deadline normal toDay?

It is, indeed.

I've had it asked of me separately so I will insert a few clarifications here.

1. The Evil Wizard counts in the Baddie column for tabulating the win.

2. Killing the Good Wizard is not per se a win condition of the Baddie side. Their win condition is to reduce the Goodies down to an equal or lower number than themselves.

3. The Goodie win condition is to eliminate all the Baddies, including the Evil Wizard.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One thing that could have happened - and correct me if I've read the rules wrong - the GW could have chosen a Wolf as the Visitor Who Leaves.
That way, I think, the wolf no longer counts as a living wolf, which is why we are all still here?

This is not correct. An individual can be a Wolf and a Visitor at the same time, but a Wolf would still count as a Baddie so long as they were still in the Living Thread. They would no longer count for that purpose once they became a Ghost on their return.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Since I'm feeling we're so close to the end, I'm throwing caution a bit to the wind now. I am operating under the assumption that Boro was a wolf, and that makes Legate and Lalaith seem innocent to me. In this crazy game, I just want something simple to hold on to!

I've had a quick read of posts since Night 3; will try again in a little while to try and get some impressions of what people were saying about him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Since I'm feeling we're so close to the end, I'm throwing caution a bit to the wind now. I am operating under the assumption that Boro was a wolf, and that makes Legate and Lalaith seem innocent to me. In this crazy game, I just want something simple to hold on to!

I know what you mean- but the "mad glee" bit in the narration for his death sounds awfully evil, though...

EDIT: x'd with Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I know what you mean- but the "mad glee" bit in the narration for his death sounds awfully evil, though...

EDIT: x'd with Eomer.

I'm hoping it was to swerve us! Yeah, it might be a stretch. I'll work out an alternative story now, where Boro is innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

Well, *if* this interpretation is correct, Night 3 is the only Night on which a second wolf could have been created. Hmmn.

Edit: x'd with Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Night 1, Night 3 (Boro) and Night 4. So two wolves currently among us.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Night 1, Night 3 (Boro) and Night 4. So two wolves currently among us.

Okay, I misinterpreted what you were saying. Why do you think Boro was turned Night 3? As I think I've said before, he would have been a very odd choice at that point.
Edit: x'd with Eomer.

[Nerwen]

I'm going to try and look at people.

[Nerwen]

First up- Brinniel

Day One

#16. (answering Zil) Believes the EW would start creating wolves early. Is against the no-lynch plan.

#78. (answering Lalaith) Is confused by the Dead Thread concept, as she has never played in a game with one. Believes setting up communication with the Dead is a goid idea

#112. Votes Lottie (Lottie #4 but the post is marked as having crossed with others). Reason for vote is that Lottie had "worked hard to be helpful, which could go sour for us if she's evil" and that even if innocent "her helpfulness will be good for us in the Dead Thread."

Comment: the rest is fine, but that's a pretty awful reason for even a Day One vote. However, she was not the only one to make a vote like that.

Day Two

#127. Speculates on whether Morsul was killed as a suspected gifted. Believes that Boro's self-vote is a sign of innocence, but that he may have been turned Night 2 for just that reason.

#128. (Answering Sally). Explains no-one was lynched because there was a tie. Thinks period near DL needs examination.

#151. (Answering Zil) Is not sure if the wolves would be told if they targeted a Ranger-protected GW. (Answering Eomer) Thanks it very unlikely Morsul was actually a sacrificial wolf.

#270. Complains we post too much.

#291. Says Dead Thread discussion should be left until next Day. Thinks a baddie could hide behind it. Thinks Eonwe, like Boro, would have made a good Night Two wolf-pick, but does not find either suspicious enough to vote for. Is "concerned" by spat between me and Zil, which she describes as me "pulling this idea out of hat and letting the rest of the village run with it." Believes a baddie is "hiding" among the Day One no-lynch advocates, and favours Lottie in this role.

#292. Would like to vote for me, but doesn't want to "spread the vote too thin".

#295. Answering Boro, who points out that there us already a vote for me, says "So there is. I must have missed that."

#297. Votes for me (Nerwen #2).

#309. Reminds Pervinca to format her vote correctly.

Comments: Nothing very strong here, but there is perhaps a certain opportunism about her suspicions, and the repeated reminder to suspect helpful people is... well it becomes a theme.

Edit: x'd since my last post.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

Oh and btw we should make a list for the Dead to vote on. Like:

BORO PREY
Nerwen
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

BORO PREDATOR
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Eönwë
Brinniel

(or upside-down, if we want to change the order again, or what have you)

Is this the same list from yesterDay (minus the dead)? If so, do we want to use the same list every Day or mix it up a bit?

If Boro is innocent, that last minute bandwagon on him is rather concerning. If he's evil, those that voted him look a lot better (with the exception of Legate who, regardless of alignment, could've been voting to save himself). So if Boro was a wolf, I wonder if that could've been a reason why Nogrod was killed. Though the baddies know we wouldn't know Boro's role til toMorrow, so I'm not sure about that...

I agree something strange has been happening for several Nights now. I'm currently sneaking on at work, so I really don't have the time to place further thought on it though. I'll be around a bit for the last hour before deadline or so, though by then we should probably be more focused on lynch choices than Night theories.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Is this the same list from yesterDay (minus the dead)? If so, do we want to use the same list every Day or mix it up a bit?

Right, I just copied it from the narration. Okay, if we wanted to do it backwards, it would be like this:

BORO PREY
Brinniel
Eönwë
Legate of Amon Lanc

BORO PREDATOR
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
satansaloser2005

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen

Would everyone agree on that one?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another quick question as I need to be away for a few hours...I too noticed Kuru's promise of an interesting day and wondered if there were a Duel in the offing. If there is a Duel, will there also be a lynching?

I think so.

Anyway, I am just popping in and I have to go again, but should be around properly in an hour or a bit more.

[Lalaith]

The Goodie win condition is to eliminate all the Baddies, including the Evil Wizard.

Seriously?!
Also,

a Wolf would still count as a Baddie so long as they were still in the Living Thread.

Yes of course, but if s/he was made a Visitor Who Leaves then

The Visitor who Leaves is sent by the Good Wizard IMMEDIATELY to the Dead Thread.

according to the Rules

So wouldn't that eliminate a wolf from the Living thread?

[Lalaith]

Can't believe I'm sitting here chuntering on about something that probably hasn't or couldn't happen anyway when I'm so RL busy but anyway, given that Visitors are effectively the GW eliminating a villager from someone's side, might it better for him/her to try to send a wolf into the Dead Thread rather than sacrifice one of his/her own?

Although the price would be that the wolf Visitor would of course then cause a bit of chaos in the Dead Thread...and tell lies when they came back....whatever. I'll shut up now.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So wouldn't that eliminate a wolf from the Living thread?

Yes, that is correct regarding the Visitor who Leaves.

I was referring to the scenario where the Visitor who Dies is a Wolf and would still remain in the Living Thread and count toward the Evil victory total until death.

Sorry for the confusion.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If Boro is innocent, and there can't be 3 wolves just now, that would mean that the EW was thwarted on both Nights 4 and 5. It would suggest that the GW is not being thwarted, but then we would surely have seen the Visitor who leaves by now; and I just don't take that from the narration hints thus far.

All right, I really want to hear other people's interpretation of the nightly noises now, and the possible scenarios they think might have happened.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

If Boro is innocent, and there can't be 3 wolves just now, that would mean that the EW was thwarted on both Nights 4 and 5. It would suggest that the GW is not being thwarted, but then we would surely have seen the Visitor who leaves by now; and I just don't take that from the narration hints thus far.

All right, I really want to hear other people's interpretation of the nightly noises now, and the possible scenarios they think might have happened.

What if they've been picking the same targets?

Edit: x'd with Brinn

[Lalaith]

Another quick question as I need to be away for a few hours...I too noticed Kuru's promise of an interesting day and wondered if there were a Duel in the offing. If there is a Duel, will there also be a lynching?

[Nerwen]

Brinn, Day Three

#332.
Discusses Eonwe's Dead Thread communication plan; not sure if it is feasible.

#333.
"Not quite as concerned" as Sally re: spreading of early votes on previous Day, but is concerned by bandwaggon votes for Zil.

#337. Further discussion Dead Thread plan with Eonwe.. Agrees it should have been settled earlier, and partly blames herself. Will be out most of the Day.

#452. Looks at Inzil voters. Lottie's vote is "less suspicious" because it was his defensiveness rather than the slip itself, but still has some suspicion of her because of "the same reason I voted her on Day 1". One... [Note: but those reasons were being *too* helpful with the no-lynch plan, thus a possible "nice" wolf, and being a potentially useful deadie. Hardly sufficient for a Day 3 vote.]. Eonwe's vote is "bandwaggoning". My vote is suspicious because of my "eagerness" to jump on Zil's slip, and would apparently be evil regardless of his actual role. [Note.: I believe this quite a misrepresentation of what occurred]. Boro's vote is also a "bandwaggon" and she mentions again that he might have been turned Night Two for looking too innocent. [Note: not if my theory on narration is correct.

Goes on to say that she thinks those who focussed more on the Dead Thread might also be suspicious. Nogrod talks too much about the Dead Thread and is "chaotic". Eonwe on the other hand, serms genuinely helpful, which is "scary" as it "makes him a good candidate for wolf conversion". Also felt that he drew focus from that Day's lynch. Legate has suddenly started focussing on the Dead Thread, which could point to a newly-turned wolf.

Comments: Okay, this is looking pretty suss. "Suspect the helpful" theme continues...

#461. Votes Eonwe because "I found him concerning on both lists I just made". Which is to say, being too helpful plus voting someone of then-unknown role.

Comments: Those last two posts look rather bad actually...

Edit: x'd since my last

[Eönwë]

RL has really gotten in the way of my participation toDay. Catching up now; should be around until the deadline.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, I misinterpreted what you were saying. Why do you think Boro was turned Night 3? As I think I've said before, he would have been a very odd choice at that point.
Edit: x'd with Eomer.

Or a brilliant choice, as some of us were speculating the last couple days. I think you and I both were hesitating putting him on the lynch-list just because we thought he'd been acting strangely. He could have rode that doubt until the end of the game. Even yesterday he was pushed to the front of the queue quite late.

Of course, maybe he was turned on Night 1; but I can't really imagine this squares with his Day 1 behaviour.