Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well you would obviously know who you are, but it was that you dismissed it so noncommitally that struck me. Besides, it could have pointed at you as much as at Eönwë for the same reason (Nog also voted him and he had voiced some suspicion of Eönwë earlier), and you did not seem to consider that.

A wolf killing someone *just* for suspecting him at this point? When there could be a Hunter around? As I said, that scenario seems too weak even for a frame.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

'bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*'

"Can you believe this?!" came a voice.

------

It would indeed be difficult to believe if this buzzing indicated GW and EW targeting same person 3 out of 5 nights, but it's a possibility. Obviously my visitor theory seems false now.

But what about this from Boro's lynch:

"Those who knew his head would sheer off were mad with glee."

What's this about? Who could have known he wasn't a wizard? Was he the one double-targeted on the previous night, and this info was passed along to the wolves? Maybe. Has there really only been 2 wolves this whole time?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eh.... the first two times the fizzle is accompanied with clanging and banging and a doink and a pop. Nothing like that last night. So there is maybe a difference.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A wolf killing someone *just* for suspecting him at this point? When there could be a Hunter around? As I said, that scenario seems too weak even for a frame.

Well as weak as all the others, anyway. That's what's wrong with the whole Nog's death.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Eh.... the first two times the fizzle is accompanied with clanging and banging and a doink and a pop. Nothing like that last night. So there is maybe a difference.

Last Night, there was not a doink but there was a fizzle. But some of those noises were marked in red, so maybe they could be in some way more relevant than the rest? Or signify something specific? In any case, looking at it, Night 3 was the only one that was generally quiet (and Night 1 obviously).

Anyway, I'm in a middle of things now so can't post anything long but hope I'll be able to post again soon with more thoughts.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It would indeed be difficult to believe if this buzzing indicated GW and EW targeting same person 3 out of 5 nights, but it's a possibility. Obviously my visitor theory seems false now.

Btw it isn't possible that Nog could have been a Visitor and that a Ranger save took place toNight? Because that would explain the lack of red-marked words if they meant something else on the previous Nights. It would also explain the really weird fact of Nog dying of all people.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh and btw we should make a list for the Dead to vote on. Like:

BORO PREY
Nerwen
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

BORO PREDATOR
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Eönwë
Brinniel

(or upside-down, if we want to change the order again, or what have you)

[Lalaith]

I am RL extremely busy today and also this evening, and will not have much time to post. I will be here at or before deadline and I will try to vote as helpfully as I can (I am still feeling fairly pessimistic about our - and I mean the innocents - chances of victory)
Kuru, is deadline normal toDay?

[Lalaith]

I'm good with Legate's list I think, can't see any major flaws.

[Lalaith]

One thing that could have happened - and correct me if I've read the rules wrong - the GW could have chosen a Wolf as the Visitor Who Leaves.
That way, I think, the wolf no longer counts as a living wolf, which is why we are all still here?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok I have been thinking... with all the buzzing and all that...

Is it technically possible that we have really very few baddies here? Or if I wanted to go to the extreme, it is technically possible that we have only one Wizard and one Wolf and just keep lynching each other like crazy?

As in, the absolutely craziest scenario is if Boro was a Wolf (or if Nog was a Wolf and was made into the Visitor Who Leaves) and it was the only Wolf and there is just the EW at the moment.

Not that it objectively changes much: we are simply hunting Wolves. And I don't think it so likely anyway. But if something along those lines happened, it would explain some things.

Objectively, I think it's likely we have at least two baddies here (i.e. EW and a Wolf). In that sense, I am again brought to Nog's remarks yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we think the Dead communicated to us then Zil was innocent. Of the Zil band-wagon there are three alive toDay: Nerwen, Boro and Eönwe.

YesterDay two of these, Nerwen and Eönwe, voted for an innocent person trying seriously to get the ball rolling - and they have continued with the same target toDay. You naturally do not know this target's innocence, but I do.

If I was the EW, I would have chosen people like Brinn or Lalaith if looking for easy-going trustworthy wolves, or then maybe Nerwen for more effect. Correct me if I'm wrong, but when have you seen one of these to be lynched early in the game? A submarine is oftentimes a safe bet as well as they tend to be seldom lynched (there's always a "better" candidate).

I see one name popping out from all the three situations...

There is something to it. It is mostly about combinatorics now, but an evil duo of Eönwë as EW plus Nerwen as a Wolf, for instance, would make sense. (I mean not saying this is the only option. But if I had to say a name right now, I would probably pick one of the two, mostly still because that they were in safer spots in the Zilwagon. Nerwen's vote there was in a more "innocentish" place there, if you will, but at the same time I would probably suspect her more of the two because of the minor things such as the Zilcident, or in this morning, I am not sure if it really couldn't have been a way to not try to look at any connections of Nog to other people.)

EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith and Eomer

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

But what about this from Boro's lynch:

"Those who knew his head would sheer off were mad with glee."

What's this about? Who could have known he wasn't a wizard? Was he the one double-targeted on the previous night, and this info was passed along to the wolves? Maybe. Has there really only been 2 wolves this whole time?

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Wishful thinking maybe.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Are you including the Ranger blocking a pick as a Ranger save? Or do you just mean from a kill? Because if the former is the case, then if you're right, we have to assume that the thwarting is in the form of the pickee already being converted by the other side, in which case it seems more likely that it is the EW being blocked. The GW only has two picks that are blockable in such a way, and I imagine that the Ranger was probably assigned on N1 (I mean, I know that's what I would do as the GW), so it's really only a Hunter pick that could be so blocked. Given that we're still alive, we know the EW only has a maximum of two wolves, and therefore (unless both Boro and Nog are wolves, in which case the Ranger assumption is wrong) would have had at least one pick left last Night, which I imagine they would use ASAP as the size of the village decreases and therefore the Wizards' Duel draws nearer.


This is all pretty worrying because it means that if the evil side does have 2 wolves, we need to vote correctly toDay to not lose the game.


edit:x-posted with a few

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kuru, is deadline normal toDay?

It is, indeed.

I've had it asked of me separately so I will insert a few clarifications here.

1. The Evil Wizard counts in the Baddie column for tabulating the win.

2. Killing the Good Wizard is not per se a win condition of the Baddie side. Their win condition is to reduce the Goodies down to an equal or lower number than themselves.

3. The Goodie win condition is to eliminate all the Baddies, including the Evil Wizard.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One thing that could have happened - and correct me if I've read the rules wrong - the GW could have chosen a Wolf as the Visitor Who Leaves.
That way, I think, the wolf no longer counts as a living wolf, which is why we are all still here?

This is not correct. An individual can be a Wolf and a Visitor at the same time, but a Wolf would still count as a Baddie so long as they were still in the Living Thread. They would no longer count for that purpose once they became a Ghost on their return.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Since I'm feeling we're so close to the end, I'm throwing caution a bit to the wind now. I am operating under the assumption that Boro was a wolf, and that makes Legate and Lalaith seem innocent to me. In this crazy game, I just want something simple to hold on to!

I've had a quick read of posts since Night 3; will try again in a little while to try and get some impressions of what people were saying about him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Since I'm feeling we're so close to the end, I'm throwing caution a bit to the wind now. I am operating under the assumption that Boro was a wolf, and that makes Legate and Lalaith seem innocent to me. In this crazy game, I just want something simple to hold on to!

I know what you mean- but the "mad glee" bit in the narration for his death sounds awfully evil, though...

EDIT: x'd with Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I know what you mean- but the "mad glee" bit in the narration for his death sounds awfully evil, though...

EDIT: x'd with Eomer.

I'm hoping it was to swerve us! Yeah, it might be a stretch. I'll work out an alternative story now, where Boro is innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

Well, *if* this interpretation is correct, Night 3 is the only Night on which a second wolf could have been created. Hmmn.

Edit: x'd with Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Night 1, Night 3 (Boro) and Night 4. So two wolves currently among us.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Night 1, Night 3 (Boro) and Night 4. So two wolves currently among us.

Okay, I misinterpreted what you were saying. Why do you think Boro was turned Night 3? As I think I've said before, he would have been a very odd choice at that point.
Edit: x'd with Eomer.

[Nerwen]

I'm going to try and look at people.

[Lalaith]

The Goodie win condition is to eliminate all the Baddies, including the Evil Wizard.

Seriously?!
Also,

a Wolf would still count as a Baddie so long as they were still in the Living Thread.

Yes of course, but if s/he was made a Visitor Who Leaves then

The Visitor who Leaves is sent by the Good Wizard IMMEDIATELY to the Dead Thread.

according to the Rules

So wouldn't that eliminate a wolf from the Living thread?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If Boro is innocent, and there can't be 3 wolves just now, that would mean that the EW was thwarted on both Nights 4 and 5. It would suggest that the GW is not being thwarted, but then we would surely have seen the Visitor who leaves by now; and I just don't take that from the narration hints thus far.

All right, I really want to hear other people's interpretation of the nightly noises now, and the possible scenarios they think might have happened.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, I misinterpreted what you were saying. Why do you think Boro was turned Night 3? As I think I've said before, he would have been a very odd choice at that point.
Edit: x'd with Eomer.

Or a brilliant choice, as some of us were speculating the last couple days. I think you and I both were hesitating putting him on the lynch-list just because we thought he'd been acting strangely. He could have rode that doubt until the end of the game. Even yesterday he was pushed to the front of the queue quite late.

Of course, maybe he was turned on Night 1; but I can't really imagine this squares with his Day 1 behaviour.