Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Nogrod]

To answer & comment two things.


There are no retractable votes aka. voting with highlighted letters is final.

You may make "fake-votes", but please make them clearly different, as you have nicly done thus far (I actually liked Lommy's version of using +- in front of the vote).

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

If that is the situation on the end of the Day and the Ordo is voted out, then Wolves win, because at the start of the Night it is 1-1 which by default means Wolf-victory.

If we go into the Night with those three, the Wolf has, purely numerically, 75% chance on winning. Picking the Ordo by Night the Wolf wins: when Day breaks it's 1-1. Picking the Hunter the wolf has 50-50 chance of winning, depending on whether the Hunter hunts the Wolf or the Ordo.

In Real Game circumstances the odds surely are different because there can be well founded suspicions or even knowledge involved in the picks the last players make.

[Macalaure]

I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in their summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

Originally Posted by G55

Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Wait right there... as far as I'm concerned, my questions are answered!

How are you so sure that it was deliberate?

Originally Posted by G55

bombastically inaccurate

Anyway...

Originally Posted by Boro

Do people like Mac without butter?

I'm pretty good raw, but butter just really brings out my flavor.


And fake votes, eh?

+-Macalaure

Chew on that!

[Brinniel]

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

Oh my. Thank you. Yeah that could have turned out screwing up my timeline

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've stolen a little more time on the actual computer to read over "Phase 2" (people's comments on the G55/Legate/Pitch debate). Note that this does not mean I no longer suspect Pitch, G55, and Lommy (in no particular order); just that I'm consciously examining the rest of the village too. (I'm also not highlighting every post that's part of "Phase 2"; just the ones that jump out at me.)

I think Phase Two starts around #52, when Macalaure considers Legate cobblerish, but the first post that jumps out is Rikae, #69, which asserts that:

Originally Posted by Rikae

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

... which, putting those side by side, is actually straight-up wrong. Mac suggested the possibility of Legate-Wolf, but mostly came down on cobbler.

Hang on, didn't I see the number #69 on the current page? Right, yes, G55 caught it in #156. Which I guess suggests that a Rikae-G55 pack is unlikely?

Interestingly, I think this is also the first post to suspect Macalaure, which puts Rikae doubly in my 'worrisome' category. We'll see where it goes.

#71: Brinniel suggests there could be 'no wolves involved' in the fake-vote discussion, then says she's wary of both Pitch and G55. Not a very consistent position, but useful if Legate seemed in need of protection.

#72: G55 catches the error ('error'?) in #69, but presents it in a joking manner, so it doesn't really get picked up.

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post). It's also a really convenient way to either make an innocent look bad without coming on too strong, or to make a fellow wolf look good without seeming like you're on their side. So it says nothing about Legate, but something about Lommy.

#81: Conveniently at the top of page 3, Kath lays out Phase 1 almost precisely (she stops with Mac's post that I see as the start of Phase 2). I think this post will be a oft-used reference for Phase 1, if we wind up still discussing it after toDay (I believe it's the 'evolutionary' post Legate later refers to). She mostly sticks to the facts, so it's hard to get a read off her here.

#91: Lommy. Not particularly striking for its Phase 2 content, but for the 'I would definitely play up my flipflopping if I were a wolf' she gave to me. I'm afraid I dropped the ball on this one - I'd forgotten what I said by the time I saw what she said, so I just took 'that's a fair point' and moved on. It's really making me suspicious right now.

#95: Kitanna discusses a Galadriwolf or PitchWolf, but interestingly doesn't suggest a pack. She does seem to suggest G55 and Rikae as a pack with this:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

*side eyes both [G55 & Rikae]* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.

She could be a wolf using this to pile suspicion on G55? I'm not strongly suspicious of this one, though.

#97: Mac finds Legate suspicious for going after all his accusers. This could be a slightly dodgy claim (I feel like going after anyone who accuses you is pretty classic Werewolf), but it doesn't worry me overmuch.

#98 & #100: Pitch continues to suspect Legate, but also pitches (sorry) in on Mac. Still thinking about how this interacts with G55's interactions with Rikae, who also suspected Mac.

#104: Kitanna suspects a wolf in the GLP, but can't decide who. Really interestingly, she says she didn't suspect Legate until #88 - but her previous post was #95, where she didn't mention this suspicion. Cross-posting is possible, I guess?

#109: Kath. It looks like Phase 2 might be winding up, as she's starting to analyse interactions from it (Mac and Pitch).

#113: Boro discusses Legate-Wolf, but is pretty non-committal. Could be seen as a light defence of wolf-Legate? Or as a light attack on innocent-Legate? But nothing overly strong.

I think that's the bulk of Phase 2. I'm dubious about Rikae, but the one who jumps out at me is Lommy. I've had... three or four different suspicions of her at this point, I think? I'm still worried about Pitch, and to an extent G55 (but mostly by association with PitchWolf, unless I'm forgetting something), but Lommy is at the top of my list.

Right, checking the last few posts to see what's changed...

Okay, G55 reminds of that odd 'hey what if this specific scenario happened, would I still be a wolf winner?' question, so I guess I do have something else on her. Mac points out that Rikae's misrepresentation of him could be a simple mistake (I think someone's misattributed something to me somewhere, though I can't find it), which does make G55's continued pulling on the thread somewhat sketchy.

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

... but Lommy has, as maybe the third or fourth person to cast suspicion on her (in #144 she dedicates her longest paragraph to contrasting her with Eonwe).

Okay, I should be able to actually-vote later, and in the event that we see a G55/Pitch vs Legate breakdown I will vote for one of the former, but for now my not-vote sits on +-Lommy.

hS

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Where did she first voice suspicion of Kitanna, I must have missed it.

She mentions Inzil, Pitchwife and G55 early on, sticks with Inzil for a while and then switches to Kitanna in her latest post #168.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Bah. "Keep an eye on" is not a moniker I'm comfortable with in terms of being vague.

[A Little Green]

I had a quick look at Kitanna. I don't really get a nervous or on-edge vibe from her like some others have said. She does seem quite quick to low-level suspect - early on she says Lhuna is suspicious for explicitly not posting anything of content when there would already have been stuff to comment on; she speculates on Gal and Rikae being potential wolf-on-wolf (this was before it developed into an all-out war) and suspects Gal for her reaction to the fake-vote-plan debacle and for being too helpful, speculates on Pitch being an opportunistic wolf for his role in said debacle, and says Legate seems the most innocent of the trio but thinks his list post is suspicious.

I don't necessarily think this amounts to suspicious behaviour from Kitanna - she definitely started suspecting people (using that actual word) earlier than most, and has used it of more people than most, but if anything it makes me feel better about her. A wolf might want to appear more consistent, or less confrontational. My current vibe is more of an ordo stirring the pot and voicing early bad vibes in order to get discussion going.

The only thing I was wary of was her argument that there is likely to be a wolf in the Pitch-Gal-Legate -trio - as others have pointed out, there's no basis for this really but it would be a very convenient idea for a wolf to advocate.

In sum, not convinced either way but leaning more innocent than not.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that?

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

I don't recall what Mac said...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. It was just an observation I made as looked back at several posts referring to you. And yes I still do find you on the slightly suspicious side, but I don't think enough to vote you. G55's exchange with Rikae makes me more inclined to think her innocent (seems like a squabble between two innocents really).

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again?

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

This, I want more context on this.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This, I want more context on this.

Which part of it?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Which part of it?

Mentioned it just now in my shameless piggybacking of Greenie's read post, because I am tired.

[A Little Green]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself

Not my idea of fun, and I tried to avoid it. Please don't call me "lady".

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post).

Heyyyy guess what I'm gonna stop calling it flipflopping now and start calling it looking at both sides of issues. For instance:

Legate starts talking about Gal55's "fake vote" plan seriously*
Pros: gets the ball rolling, starts the actual debate toDay (as opposed to mere banter) - and for this it really doesn't matter WHAT the discussion is about
Cons: as it's a somewhat unrealistic suggestion and not a plan that would really work out and merit a closer look, it's not something we should be stuck debating

* I always read Gal's original suggestion (that was a no-lynch plan unlike Legate's) as tongue in cheek, and I was under the impression Gal confirmed this?

Okay hopefully that's the very last thing from me both about the nature of flip-flopping and on how the fake vote discussion started rolling, because it's high time to move on.

~*~

That being said, I also wanted to move on from G55 BUT how can you when she's stirring up new drama right in front of our eyes? The whole spat with Rikae seems a little off to me. Reminds me of what Greenie said about wolves being consistent with their suspicion instead of changing their opinion upon new developments - anyone who's too certain about anything on Day1 makes me raise eyebrows.

~*~

Lottie's few last posts seem very level-headed to me, so I feel a bit better about her.

Boro's defence of his playing style toDay? Fair enough, I think, but he's still on my suspicion list.

I might have a quick look at Rune and Kitanna's posts to try pinpoint why I feel vaguely suspicious of them. I mean with Kitanna it might be classic playing style clash (which I have with Lottie too and to an extent Brinn - I wanted to say her very benevolent reaction to suspicion towards her rubbed me the wrong way but I think she might be like that as innocent too; and now that I'm on the topic maybe Huinesoron would belong to this category too?) but I'm more curious why I got evil vibes from Rune because he's not someone I always suspect on Day1s.


edit: xed with Nog and onwards

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

Secondly, keep in mind that all of our posts are cross-posted, and therefore most of my posts have cross-posted with an explanation.

[Galadriel55]

++ Rikae

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

If it was not Rikae, it would be Brin. However, I still wasn't able to do a full Brin-read, and besides, there is more than one wolf in this village, so maybe we will both turn out right. I stand by my suspicion.


I will predictably be crossed since my last post.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

Oh wow.

If you mean why I said Inzil suspected Legate, I did explain it, and you responded to it with your little English lesson, so please don't try to tell me that was crossposted as well.

I can't imagine what could possibly be irritating me. Obviously only a wolf would be annoyed by this.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Yes, it's a shame the village doesn't share your conviction that an error from someone who, conveniently, suspects you isn't a clear sign of wolvishness.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

But between the two of us, the only one who might be gauging them correctly. You actually seem to think I'm afraid of you.

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Thanks for the English lesson.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

What in Arda are you even talking about?

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

What makes you think I'm trying to dissuade you? If you want to make some illogical case against me, honestly, you'll probably just end up hurting yourself in the long run.

Edit: X'd with G55, Boro, Green, Rune