Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Huinesoron]

Alas, poor Rikae. Please think nice thoughts at us from the Quarantine Thread! (With G55... yikes.) I... honestly can't remember who they interacted with, other than the Cobbler, but hopefully someone can turn up a lead there.

I spent... must have been two, three hours during the Night (totally not when I was meant to be working, ahem) combing through Day 1 to try and sort out what the G55 Cobbler reveal... uh, revealed. Obviously Rikae is right there in the middle of the timeline, but I think I mostly looked at the implications for other people, so it will hopefully still be helpful. Once again I have to get to bed, so I'll try for another overview of The Day So Far when I get back.

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Wow! That was quite a rollercoaster ride. I definitely didn't see Cobbleradriel (Cobbler55?) coming; I think that's because my wolf-lean was initially based on her as part of a Pitch-G55 pack, which doesn't make much sense for a Cobbler.

Now that we know what she was, I want to go back and reread her part in all the events of yesterDay. I'm thinking of the whole GLP thing, and her attacks on Rikae; then I want to look at the Brinn-wagon, and the Cobbler55 lynch, because who moved when on those should be instructive. Since I once again have to leave just after Deadline, I'm writing this overNight, so end of Night/early posts might obsolete some of it.

[b]The GLP[b/] (Down to page 2)

It seems pretty clear G55 brought up the no-vote/fake-vote idea specifically to derail the day. But Legate picking it up and running with it can't have been part of the plan (unless she knows him really well), which still inclines me against suspecting him. Pitch, though… I'm still not convinced by his switch of the blame for the idea from G55 to Legate. I'm not going to impart PitchWolf with supernatural Cobbler-spotting talents, but as I think I said yesterday, he could have been trying to move the focus specifically onto Legate, not off G55.

Looking back, it's striking how much time G55 spends derailing the discussion. On page 2, she wanders off onto QT tactics, potential roles we didn't use, a 'pretend therapy session'... nothing really got traction other than the fake-votes.

The Rikae attack

(Post-Night edit: doesn't look like I considered Rikae so much as how people talked about the fight, so most of this should. Still stand.)

This starts around #127 (G55)/#128 (where Rikae very calmly explains that they just made a mistake). G55 is quite clearly stirring by #137 (which starts with 'Fight! Fight!', and includes her ignoring that Rikae has already explained twice). But… nobody seems to jump onto either side of the fight. Lottie and Ka both say mild things about Rikae not being suspicious, but not attacking G55. Lommy actually IDs G55 as a possible cobbler, but doesn't mention the brewing fight.

Then we hit #147, where G55 opens a full broadside on Rikae. Lottie comes back with suspicions of G55's motives, but not obviously pro-Rikae (and as she says, "I honestly don't really see the motivation for a [G55] ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything".

#163: Pitch suspects Rikae (for suspecting him), but then 'paradoxically' flips and says both they and G55 sound innocent. If PitchWolf did suspect G55 as cobbler (by this point, Lommy had already suggested it, so the idea was out there), then trying to calm the argument and swing opinion against Rikae would be a clever move.

Greenie then comments on the argument, and is anti Chaotic G55. Doesn't read particularly wolfish. Then Mac comes in and says he doesn't know how it all blew up… well, we know that now! Like others, he seems more focussed on calming things down than pinning blame on either of them. Greenie again comes in and sees G55 as a wolf or frustrated ordo… and then, by #195, as Shasta says, the argument has played itself out.

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

Okay, that's it for the direct Cobbler55 stuff; on to the lynch.

The Brinn-wagon

As I said yesterDay, I didn't know where this came from, and didn't trust it one bit. Let's see if that changes:

(Note: because this got so incredibly long, I'm going to set it in a quote-box. I'll put my takeaways underneath for people who don't want to scour the whole post every time they look back at the start of the Day.)

Originally Posted by The Brinn-wagon

#73 is the first stirrings: Eonwe says he's not sure whether Brinn trusting Ka and Lommy makes him less likely to trust them. He doesn't really support this in any way. In #77, I (hi, me!) say that Brinn looks slightly dodgy for not saying much of substance; I think that's pretty much true down to her #70, which unfortunately was in the parts I didn't read closely.

#88: Legate takes the 'no-content Brinn' concept and rolls with it, kind of like he did with G55's fake-votes idea. He does go on to say that he's also not including her later posts, eg #70. In fact there's a lot of people (I saw Boro and Lhuna) whose opinion of her comes down to 'not saying much, that's suspicious'.

#112: Pitch comes in with a post that's mostly anti-Brinn, but in a plausibly-deniable way - 'this looks bad, but would a baddie do it? This looks good, but is it meant to?'. Didn't someone talk about 'questions to the reader' somewhere in the thread? There were enough recent 'hmm, Brinn looks worryingly quiet' comments that PitchWolf could definitely be taking advantage of them.

… okay, breaking the flow for a moment, but this is exactly the same technique he used in #163, that time on Rikae. 'They're suspicious, except they aren't, but what if they are?'. I don't like this one bit.

Over on page 4, Rikae suspects Brinn of opportunistically attacking G55 - which I think Pitch was the first to bring up. And… right, #136 is Brinn's 'I don't want to get caught in a trap' post, which I remember came up a lot later.

G55 echoes the earlier comments on 'quiet Brinn is suspicious', which is definitely her trying to build on the momentum that's already there. Next post, Rikae one-word calls out the 'trap' post. Then Lommy (#144) somehow manages to say 'Eonwe and Brinn are acting nearly identically; Brinn's definitely the sketchy one' with a straight face. I think I already noticed this post yesterday, but paired with Eonwe being the first person to suspect Brinn even slightly, it makes me wonder whether there's a pair of wolves signalling at each other.

G55 pushes the wagon a little in #147, and Rikae pops back up to talk about the 'trap' post. I think their explanation (in #148) does actually hold up as a reason for suspecting Brinn - but by this time, multiple people (G55 of course, but Pitch, Legate, and Lommy too) have implicated Brinn for reasons that have nothing to do with this post. This definitely isn't the cause of the Brinn-wagon, though it might have contributed to its prominence; we'll see.

Eonwe pops up with a repeat of his earlier 'I don't know, so I don't trust her' opinion. If he's a wolf, this could be laying the ground for climbing up on the wagon and being able to point back and say 'I was there all along!'.

On page 5, mentions of Brinn pop from 16 to 39; this is where the wagon really takes off. We start with Rikae and Pitch restating their suspicions, and Rikae providing the first actual vote, and then Greenie picks up the 'trap' thing. Then Pitch in #171 comes up with a whole new set of just-asking-questions for Brinn, which Lottie picks up (but somewhat less firmly; by #182 she has her as 'keep an eye on', not a suspect).

#194: THE Ka finds yet another reason to suspect Brinn: she's not making firm accusations. Mac echoes this, and calls her out for not worrying about people suspecting her. I've always had the impression that The Villager Doth Protest Too Much is pretty wolfish, so I don't much like this argument.

On to page 6 and the final hour: 78 mentions! Lommy thinks she might be innocent, Zil wants to talk about the trap (even though this has been discussed a bit), Greenie distrusts both Brinn, and Mac for accusing Brinn, Lottie would vote Brinn - and then Pitch does, with what I think is yet another reason.

I know I sound a bit like a cracked record, but this looks like a 'safe' Wolf bandwagon. He's only the second vote, so he can't be bandwagonning - except that there's been loads of people saying they mistrust Brinn, two posts ago someone stated intention to vote that way, and one post ago Brinn herself talked about how she's on the block. It would have taken a major twist for a hefty Brinn vote not to manifest, and I think Pitchwolf spotted that.

Shasta talks about waiting to see what happens - at 50 minutes to DL. Lottie starts talking about lynching Brinn to find out her role, and I think I remember her saying the same thing about G55; maybe on a quieter Day 1 this would be valid, but there's been so much relationship-drama that a 'lynch for role info' strategy looks pretty suspect to me.

#220: Kitanna makes a huge post about Brinn, coming down on the side of 'innocent/cobbler'. The fact that a thorough reread gives this sort of impression is exactly why I'm suspicious of the wagon - most of the reasons people have given for suspecting her just don't hold up under scrutiny. Rune follows this post with a very similar one, but too close to be trying to ride Kitanna's coattails.

39 minutes to DL, and Legate is still waiting for more information. I'm not going to argue with 'I don't know' (there are some valid arguments around), but this is an odd way of putting it.

Over to page 7 and the final 20 minutes. THE Ka votes Brinn (with no new reasons), Rikae defends the wagon, Lommy thinks Brinn could be anything but the cobbler (well, she's previously leaned both guilty and innocent on her, so this is consistent). Rune votes Brinn. Legate discusses 'lynching for information', like Lottie did, and then votes for her over G55. Mac votes Brinn based on… I can't even find his post in what I've written, but I remember it was there. And then G55 claims Ranger, and it's all over but the quarantining.

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

The G55 Lynch

Since we all know what she was up to, hopefully this will be a bit shorter!

-Urwen: voted out of stated spite.
-Kath: over her passing the blame to Legate on the fake-votes, and the fight with Rikae.
-Inzil: For information (on Legate, Pitch, and Rikae) and because there's no-one else on the block he wants to lynch.
-Lottie: Lynching for information (on Pitch, I believe) and because she thinks she's a wolf.
-Lommy: voted 'to make this interesting' (by keeping G55 at +1 over Brinn, I think)
-Huinesoron: suspected Pitch-G55 pair, voted for the one who was on the block and to break the Brinn-wagon.
-Brinn: Explicit self-protection.

Conclusions? Well, obviously I think the arguments against G55 are stronger (to say the least) than those against Brinn. They were also broadly agreed on, particularly the idea that something was up in the GLP, whereas the only agreement in the Brinn voters seems to have been 'she's quiet… too quiet', with other reasons added on at will to justify that unease.

The one that jumps out on this lynch list is once again Lommy. I would dearly love to know what 'make this more interesting' meant, because to my mind, voting for one of the top two suspects (and the one who already had the most votes up to a minute before) is the opposite of 'making it interesting'.

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Just checking for cross-posts... looks like Zil is linking Rikae's death to the Brinn-wagon. Hope there's something in here you can use!

hS