Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Lhunardawen]

Okay, let's see if I remember how to do this.

An ordo knows only one thing for sure: xe is innocent. Everyone else is unknown. The Hunter, Ranger, and (may she rest in quarantine) Cobbler are in the same boat.
The Seer knows a few more things: xe is innocent, and at this point the identity of two other villagers.
An Infected knows far more: that xe is evil, that 4 other people are evil, and that everyone else is innocent.

Sorry, needed to review.


No use beating a quarantined horse, but speaking of Cobbler - I honestly didn't suspect G55 to be one because I expect the Cobbler would prioritise playing to last longer in the game over wreaking havoc and risking an early lynch. But as someone said before, there are a lot of ways to play that role. I just can't get behind the arguments of someone doing something related to G55 thinking that she's the Cobbler.


So a village of this size and verbosity is pretty overwhelming. I'm doing this piecemeal for my sanity, so I might be repeating some points made on later pages or asking questions that have already been addressed. I'll get to them eventually.

Huinesoron, that first post of yours toDay -- I can't. I just can't right now. I'll try going back to it later, but right now just looking at it... *brain explodes*

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Very curious about this.

x/d with Brinn

Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

I'm not sure I follow this. You're suspecting three people because you think as a wolf they voted for a quiet innocent to save a loud innocent?

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think Brinn's innocence is proven by any means, but I do think that the vote patterns look (to me at least) very much like wolves choosing between two "innocents". I also think that the wolves would probably have rather lynched Brinn over G55, assuming neither was a packmate. I don't think they were trying to "orchestrate an innocent lynch" - I think, based on the overall tone of the late voters, that it came down to two options, neither of whom was a wolf. No one felt like a wolf nervously trying to avoid lynching a packmate without overtly defending them, or anything like that.

Hmm. I guess it just seems a bit of a stretch to me because it's an assumption I wouldn't make. I'm not even sure Brinn's all that innocent, so how can I guess someone else's identity based on that unstable premise?

Originally Posted by Mac

Ok then. Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Why Rikae then, just because after yesterDay they'd look the most innocent of all toDay and thus least likely to be lynched? Possibly, but if so, our wolf pack is boring.

Frankly I don't understand why a few people say Rikae looked more innocent after yesterDay (before it was revealed they actually are, of course). Sure, they went toe-to-toe with who we now know as the Cobbler. They didn't know that for sure then. How did that all but guarantee their innocence?

That being said... WHAT. You tell us. Did you follow G55's judgment and thought them gifted?

Originally Posted by Mac

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

Can't imagine a suicidal Macwolf but with 114 games I guess anything's possible. I don't know what to think anymore.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If G55 turned out Ranger, I would be feeling a lot different about Steve's throw away.

Care to explain, Boro? How would that be any different?

Originally Posted by Lommy

What I meant by "let's make this more interesting" was "let's see if anyone rushes to save Gal, or joins the bandwagon after me to save Brinn". Adding a new vote candidate 15min before the dl when 2/3 of the village had already voted would have been the opposite of making it interesting...

On the contrary, it would be exactly what will make things interesting. I mean, look at the interest Eönwë's getting now for his vote for Urwen.

Originally Posted by Leggie, to Lottie

You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.

You said it better than I attempted to.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Off to work, will be back with what's left of my brains later toDay.

Not much is left. Nothing for you here, zombies.


Yay one page down!

[Lhunardawen]

It just occurred to me... For all intents and purposes, a vote for G55 is still a vote for an innocent (i.e. non-wolf). Maybe it's worth looking at those who voted for G55 as well. So, shamelessly stealing and combining Boro's and Eönwë's lists (with the non-G55 or Rikae votes in double brackets)...

[[Lhuna -> Lhuna]]
Rikae -> Brinniel
[[G55 -> Rikae]]
[[Boro -> Pitchwife]]
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
---30 min mark----
Kath -> G55 (2)
[[Shasta -> Pitchwife 2]]
[[Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3]]
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
[[Greenie -> Macalaure]]
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
[[Eönwë -> Urwen]]
----15 min mark----
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal")




I'm not even going to touch Urwen's vote, or think about Urwen at all, so long as she's determined to not-play this game. There's a modfire rule for a reason.


Kath

I'm struggling, because even though I feel like I talked myself out of it in the previous post, I am still suspicious of G55.

I didn't like early on that she was happy to slide all the 'responsibility' for the fake votes thing over to Legate. You can say he took a joking remark beyond her original intention but as I noted before it was actually her who brought it back up again.

And having backed away, the affray with Rikae is a great way to get involved in something without actually really having anything to say. It's all about what did that word really mean rather than much else. So it seems like she's been involved in a lot but hasn't really.

But what I'm REALLY struggling with is that I'm now following Urwen's vote, which I'm strongly irritated by on principle.

Thing is, I can't see where she talked herself out of her suspicion of G55. These were the last things she said about her:

G55 --> Rikae - quite a big fight seems to have blown up between these two. I looked at post 69 and couldn't really see anything in it. Yes, Rikae somewhat exaggerated events but it was early in the Day and to me read as typical banter. I don't think there was this element of deliberate misrepresentation that G55 feels is going on. I don't know if G55 has played with Rikae before and it's an unfamiliarity with playing style thing, or a great way for a wolf-G55 to have a pretty logical reason to vote an innocent-Rikae.

G55 ... earlier in the Day it was felt by some that she'd backed away from the 'fake-votes' in favour of leaving that to Legate, and was garnering a bit of suspicion or at least wary eyes as a result. She then leaps headfirst into a ding dong with Rikae and a few have now mentioned this makes her look innocent. I don't know that I'm going anywhere with this as it feels like it would be way too hard to make that a calculated thing.

She didn't really say much about suspecting G55 until her last couple of posts. Fishy. Can't quite put my finger on it.


Inziladun

I'm trying to decide whether I think Legate or G55 makes me more uneasy.

In response to the fake vote discussion

G55 has actually been my main candidate most of the Day. I'm still catching up, but it seemed Rikae spent a while suspecting her, then voted Brinn.
Then G55 votes Rikae What's up with that?

Despite not having said much about her in his previous posts

I see Urwen has jumped in out of nowhere to vote for G55. Would a wolf really be so careless?

Careless? For voting without an explanation, or for voting for another suspected wolf?
Finally, on his vote for G55:

There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.

It's odd how confident he seemed in his vote despite not saying much to support it in his previous posts. Suspiciously bandwagonny.


Loslote
Considered G55 and Pitch more wolf-like of the GLP trio. Thought Pitch didn't want to be tied up with or seen defending G55, kind of agreed with Huin that they might both be wolves. Pretty consistent in her suspicion of G55, even false-voted her. Thought she might be either Cobbler or wolf. Panicked at G55's reveal, urged the rest of the voters to vote Brinn to save her. Said anyone left who didn't vote for Brinn should be considered suspicious toDay.

Sounds sincere, albeit turned out to be wrong. Leaning innocent.


Thinlomien
First, she filed G55 under "Who Knows"

Galadriel55 - several things she's said have made me raise my eyebrows a little - especially how she treated the whole no-vote discussion from the start, but I think she might rather be an ordo sticking her neck out à la Legate or else the cobbler, and in either case probably not who I want to concentrate any more toDay than we already have.

False-voted Boro.

* I always read Gal's original suggestion (that was a no-lynch plan unlike Legate's) as tongue in cheek, and I was under the impression Gal confirmed this?

Okay hopefully that's the very last thing from me both about the nature of flip-flopping and on how the fake vote discussion started rolling, because it's high time to move on.

Said "Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??" to Lottie over something the latter had said a couple of times throughout the Day. Then her posts at the end of yesterDay. Prefaced her vote with "let's make this interesting."

So Brinn and G55 both at 6, but G55 the one to be a goner so far? With curious last minute posts from several people here! ToMorow will be iiiiiinteresting...

Said this after G55's late reveal, then urged remaining voters to vote for Brinn. And then toDay:

If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.

You would know, wouldn't you. Wicked. Tricksy. False.


Huinesoron
Questioned G55 for "hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories" (wolf-Hunter-ordo endgame).

Okay, I've stolen a little more time on the actual computer to read over "Phase 2" (people's comments on the G55/Legate/Pitch debate). Note that this does not mean I no longer suspect Pitch, G55, and Lommy (in no particular order);

But unless I missed something, I'm pretty sure that post above was his first considerable suspicion of her.

Okay, G55 reminds of that odd 'hey what if this specific scenario happened, would I still be a wolf winner?' question, so I guess I do have something else on her. Mac points out that Rikae's misrepresentation of him could be a simple mistake (I think someone's misattributed something to me somewhere, though I can't find it), which does make G55's continued pulling on the thread somewhat sketchy.

Mmmkay. Then false-voted Lommy. When G55 and Brinn tied at 2 apiece, said he still stands by his false-vote but would vote Pitch > G55 to derail the Brinnwagon. In the end voted G55 when the votes were at 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55.

If he voted Pitch as he preferred, he would have nearly contributed to a three-way tie, although I'm not sure if anyone else (other than Lottie, who at that point had already voted) would also vote for Pitch. Huin-Brinn wolf pair? Can it be that blatant?


Brinniel

As for the other side of the scale, it's still too early for me to feel any strong suspicions, but based on hunch and posts I've seen, I am slightly more wary of: Inzil, Pitchwife, G55

This was circa QT discussion, post-fake vote proposal, and pre-G55/Rikae.

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

Cue alarm bells for some people. On G55's probing, she said of the three she suspects Pitch > G55 > Leggie. Pseudo-false-voted Inzil. Said she might look at those building a case against Pitch, time-permitting. (Why?) Suspected Kitanna for being quick to point out that there's a wolf in the GLP group, but not enough to vote her. Said G55/Rikae seems like a squabble between two innocents.

And as for the suspicions against me? As I said I'm not too worried about general wariness, as we all do suspect one another at some point. However since I know I'm innocent, I will be watchful anyone who is trying to build on a case against me.

Hmmmmmm.

Would have voted for Kit, but voted G55 to save herself. Vote itself is reasonable. Everything else? Suspicious.


In the midst of my re-read, I saw this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

The psychic strikes again.