Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

What can we tell by the wolf-pack's kills so far? As Rune commented after Rikae's death it looks like an unadventurous/boring pack. After Kit being killed, I'm agreeing with that assessment. A bolder and risk-taking pack may have let Kit live, risked having her stop their kill, but have the village wondering how the heck is the "revealed" Ranger still alive? There's still a lot of people here, and Ranger could not self-protect so a bolder pack might have tried to get us to lynch our ranger by keeping her alive.

That's not what we have though. I can imagine a bold pack with Mac going paranoid and his mates busing him. But can I see that ploy between Mac and Huey, no doesn't feel like that. We have a wolf pack that made 2 safe kills, which suggests they're trying to play it safe in the day and not do a bunch of crazy wolf-on-wolf.

I suppose now that I said this we're going to get wolves busing each other.

Wishful thinking, my prince.

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.

~

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

Boring? Maybe. Effective? Definitely.


x'd since the post I quoted

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wishful thinking, my prince.

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.
[/QUOTE]

All good points. I'll repeat my disclaimer that I'm not saying we must ignore the Huey voters yesterday, because there can't be wolf-on-wolf.

I feel my judgment has been kind of off so far and trying to be more pragmatic/methodical.

What do I know currently from the night kills and the lynches? The night kills have been safe. Effective? Yes. But no risks taken. The lynches for all their chaos have gone extremely favorably.

So what's more suspicious looking? The votes of people who lynched a now known wolf? The votes of people who voted for and unknown Mac and not HueyWolf? The votes of people who didn't vote for either?

Today, I'm not interested in trying to consider wolf-on-wolf strategy. There's still a ton of people, which means the Mac-votes and the "didn't vote for either" votes, are the more suspicious voters.

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

I saw a few people, I recall Steve, suspected her and brought up the possibility that Kit could have been acting as a bold-wolf. It would have been riskiest of risks, for the reasons you mentioned, but not killing her last night would start making us paranoid that she was a wolf, because why else would she be kept alive? Anyway, it's all moot now.

Kit. Ranger. Quarantined. Safe? Yes. Effective? Yes.

Edit: crossed with Steve.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm just saying, Boro my love, that discounting wolf-on-wolf tactics opens you up to missing a lot of possibilities.

[Macalaure]

Huinalysis
Mostly quoteless, for readability.

Day1, he's mostly out against Pitch and Lommy. He talks about a number of other people over the course of his posts, but it's all too lukewarm to draw conclusions from, I feel. He tries to dissuade people from the Brinn-wagon, votes Gala. He suspects there's a wolf among the Brinn suspecters.

He "defends" me in #93, #105, and #115, and he doesn't do anything like that with anybody else. But then in #115 and #154 he encourages others to make points against me, the sneak. It still feels like he's, all defense be damned, just waiting for someone to give him a reason to turn on me. I called him out on that and it was Greenie who came to his defense.

Originally Posted by Huin

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)

As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.

Starts Day2 with a bunch of analysis, but his main suspect remains Pitch, with Lommy second. Inzil and Loslote are mentioned as suspicious. Boro takes up some prominence in his posts. Greenie, Brinn, and Legate seem innocent to him. There's a mild sneaky defense of Eonwe in #366, but he backs off after Kitanna explains herself.

In #417 he still has Pitch up in his suspicion together with me. Loslote is dropped, Lommy and Inzil are still suspicious to him, but he's easing it. No mention of Boro anymore. Noteworthily, his suspicion of me includes a defense of Greenie. It's interesting how in #429 Lommy is his third suspect, yet she's apparently neutral to him. His suspicion towards Inzil is fairly half-hearted as well, though he raises it later on.

A lot of his points and suspicions feel like he's throwing things around to see what sticks, and if it doesn't, he just leaves it. Pitch, me, and to a lesser degree Lommy and Inzil are the only ones he's somewhat serious about.

In conclusion:
Fairly sure Pitch is innocent.
I'm tempted to feel better about Lommy and Inzil, but I feel a wolf-on-wolf suspicion is possible there, Lommy more so than Inzil, since he doesn't follow through at all.
Can't make my mind up about his half-hearted suspicion of Boro.
Brinn, Greenie, Eonwe, and Legate are implicated negatively, in certain degrees, in that order.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Sally

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

"Oh, no! That Mac made a point against me. He's so paranoid!"