Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Pitchwife]

Now this is more like it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?

A valid question, with the barefoot season approaching, but if I see someone hanging out a business sign I'll stop to inspect the goods, and Formy's post about talking amicably to the wolves seemed to do just that. The question is, was he looking to sell or buy?

Originally Posted by Kath

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?

Well, like others have said, it depends on the makeup of the pack and also on who the NW is, how good they are at gifted-spotting - say, if it's Shasta for example it could be good idea to activate his power early. Anyway, the pack would have less to lose by losing the NW than by losing anybody else, so wolf-on-Nightmare-wolfing could be a valid tactic for them to fall back on in case of need.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

I don't really see what that wolves would have to gain from that which they wouldn't gain by sacrificing the NW, but thanks for continuing to make helpful suggestions!

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

My thought was more, if we think someone is the NW, should we try to find a non-NW instead. But I talked myself out of it, since the wolves could pretend to be the NW to buy themselves time.

[Brinniel]

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?