Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by BG

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yeah, maybe you can call mine a bit of a throwaway, but I didn't really care to vote for any of the options on the table. And I honestly thought that there were more people left to vote (I forget this is a smaller village compared to last game).

Originally Posted by Mac

Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Not me! I usually at most just scribble handwritten notes when I play. There may have been a game or few in the past where I tracked quotes from players in a word documents, but never spreadsheets. I deal enough with spreadsheets at work...y'all are crazy!

I see Formy is now using statistics/math to analyze posts. Blegh!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yes, but I know I'm innocent.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Ohh shoot I forgot the seer was a role. BRB gonna read the sticky role post again.

Everything below this line was added in various edits:

I thought the roles were Wolves, Cobble, Ranger, BH, Villagers. My spreadsheet doesn't even have seer as role on it It has failed me...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, as always.)

First vote: Shasta

22:16: Wonders if hS was the Nightmare Wolf.

22:18: Clarified his thoughts above.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

2246: Voted for him.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

__________________

Interlude: Huinesoron's vote post

2312: Significant in light of later events.

__________________

Second vote: Rikae

2227: Shares thoughts on what appears to be the Three Cobblers + hS.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience

(Quick summary: Lottie [1836] expects the Nightmare Wolf 'to play as loud and bold as possible'. hS [2018] posts a Kath description of him [1901] that he paraphrases as his being described as playing 'loud and bold', and thought that it was a setup for bringing down suspicion on him.)

2339: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Too many people either absent or lurking

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

__________________

Third vote: Nogrod

2321: Noticed irregularities in hS's vote post immediately.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?

2325: Lommy responds to Nog's suspicion.

2332: Nogrod clarifies his suspicion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

This discussion continues in Lommy's 2336 post and Nog's 2343 post. Quoting the latter:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

2346: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron

I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

2349: Pitch comments on Nog's suspicions (among other things).

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.

2354: Nog replies.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

__________________

Fourth vote: Kath

1846: Shares 'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.'

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

2343: Surmises a BG-hS connexion.

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

2348: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

__________________

Others' comments on the Huiagon:

2351: From Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

2352: Lottie concurs.

2355: Form's vote post comments on hS.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

2358: Lottie comments on the absolute state of the voting at that point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.

This is a fitting last part. I believe that this is a cogent summary of the voting on DAY 1. It reinforces my belief (q.v.) that none of the Wolves were in any danger of the noose.

(inb4 'of course you'd say that, you're one of the suspects!')

hS's four votes were accrued over about an hour, I got two votes in 15 minutes (not including my vote), and Form's three votes were spread over a 40-odd-minute period. Considering that there were 14 votes within the last 74 minutes (and 13 within the last 48), a handful of votes should not have been decisive.

And as mentioned in the post linked to above, Form and I got votes after hS's last, but the outcome was unchanged.

As for the Huiagon itself, it has been built upon what I would assume are typical DAY 1 reasons for voting someone. There were up to four, ah, distinctive personalities that were presented for voting, and he was the unlucky winner.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by BG

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

I do think that's a stretch - but I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet. But whether they'd want to draw attention to Legate in this way when he's so far skated by more or less unsuspected is another matter. They'd have had to be pretty sure about Lottie to risk it. Another feasible scenario is the one Brinn mentioned where they thought Lottie's defence of Huin looked like a Seer trying to save an ordo she had dreamed about. I agree that this is more likely.

Originally Posted by BG

Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we.

Hang on, what? Sure, the wolves don't know who the Gifteds are. But why would that mean they'd purposefully go after whoever looked most likely to be an ordinary villager instead of trying to catch a Gifted, even if they could be wrong? Whoever they kill (even if they accidentally kill their Cobbler) will count as an innocent in the tally anyway, but if their victim is an ordo the benefits stop there.

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little but I'm trying to be sensible about it given how badly things went last time this happened! Meanwhile, looks like Form has taken the spreadsheet thing to a whole new level. Interestingly though, he talks about absences being significant and himself omits BG, Brinn and Lommy.

Oh, and another thing re. yesterDay's voting (sorry this is becoming a bit of a stream of consciousness post). I thought it was curious that the last four votes came within a minute of each other and all for different people - Legate for Form (3), Form for Nilp (3), Pitch for Kath, and Mac for Pitch (2). Presumably quite a bit of cross-posting here. The thing is, these four could still have swayed the lynch almost any way they wanted. I agree that the lack of anything like coordination or attempts to convince others could point to no wolves being in the immediate line of fire. The last two especially look somewhat safe, but then, given the likelihood of cross-posting, they wouldn't have known what everyone else was doing - and if these last four voters had all gone for the same person who had even just one vote, that person would have ended on the lynch block instead of Huin.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right... so first mandatory question - why Lottie?

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?). Unless of course they took her overall fairly confident tone for Seerishness and thought they just hit a jackpot by killing the Seer after she just dreamed a person who ended up lynched. It's possible, but it's a pile of big "if"s already.

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

She indicated her thoughts about all people in the greatest length in this post:

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

The thing is, Lottie did not single out any person that would seem like "I dreamed of this one". Would it be enough if a Wolf was randomly mentioned in the last group? One could similarly say that any of the former group would be unlikely to kill Lottie because she would have just considered them innocent. Perhaps if we wanted to distill some bare minimum out of this, then it would be that at least one of the people categorised by Lottie in one of the groups is correct. But that's basically nothing.

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

Even if that was not a factor, however, that means however another thing - which may be perhaps more worth considering - that not only did the Wolves think Lottie a good pick, but that they did not consider anybody else a better one. Now one could probably spend a Day analysing all the permutations of this, but it may be something worth keeping in mind.

Otherwise: the lynch yesterDay. Given the high amount of votes, I can imagine the Hui bandwagon being a good place for Wolves to jump on. However, that isn't to say Wolves wouldn't have happily cast votes elsewhere, especially given the spread. Will have a break, then look at these.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, two more observations still about Lottie:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Tell me what there is to buy?

Just before the DL, she had this short exchange with Nog. I am wondering if that could in any way have been a factor, since she never got to finish that sentence. Plus, her apology to Hui could have also been seen as another sign of innocence.

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, basically all the votes in the Huiwagon look like possibly Wolvish. Shasta's vote started the whole thing and at that point there was probably no telling how things would go, so one cannot place very much weight on it either way.

Rikae's vote evened it up with Form (Form still being in the lead). This would be significant if Form is a Wolf, a way to build a counter-wagon. There were, however, many votes uncast at that point yet and quite a big spread, even though Form was the one (even after Rikae's vote) to be first on the chopping block.

Nog basically pushed Hui into the lead. If either of the other candidates at that point was a Wolf, he could have done that to save a packmate. Another thing to consider is that Form and Nilp had been acting or been considered in some way cobbler-ish yesterDay. So even if neither of them was a Wolf, a Wolf might have protected them simply to keep a presumed ally around. Incidentally, that being said, Nog was also soft-core "defending" Form/potentially diverting attention by analysing Hui's post about Form (that eventually led him to vote him). Granted, Hui's post was phrased in a very strange way - but that would have made it a good target for a Wolf (who would know Hui was innocent) to latch onto.

Kath's vote was kind of a nail in the coffin (but that still could have been overturned - and yes, I also think it's of note that it wasn't). Now she explained why she did not vote BG, and yes, in retrospect, there seemed to have been quite some potential for lynching BG which disappeared because people started to decide their votes very late.

Which by the way brings to mind - yesterDay evening was at least for me horribly rushed, like all the Day nothing and suddenly two hours before DL everyone starts posting. Thankfully, toDay looks better, and obviously now we have more info to go with than yesterDay. But it would be nice if we could also kind of come up with at least some basic ideas a bit more early, and not just before DL.

Otherwise: there were quite a few "throwaway" votes in the last minutes. At that point, it is theoretically possible Wolves would have been happy with Hui being lynched but did not want to contribute to it any more to avoid being blamed for it. Still, there would have been the chance to bring someone else into lead - which makes me wonder whether one of the other bigger bandwagons was for a Wolf after all (Form or Nilp).

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything.

That may be so, but how are we supposed to know you aren't making it up after the fact?

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy.

You never mentioned anything about suspecting Hui either.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.

I concur with this.

Originally Posted by Kath

Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

I think this makes sense, although you neglect to mention that she also mentioned both you and Mac as alternative candidates for a vote.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

It is, because a lot of people do that regardless of role. It's a normal way of playing the game.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I notice BG keeps talking about lynching when she actually means Night-killing. I'm actually inclined to think she wouldn't be this confused as a wolf. I still don't get the 'most likely to be a Villager' thing though.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Throwing stones from inside the glass house?
I admit it was effectively throwaway, but I didn't realise it at the time. I lost track of time trying to wrap my mind around Nog's explanation for his Hui-suspicion (which I'm still not sure makes any sense), and when I noticed how late it was I voted without checking the tally. If I'd seen Brinn's vote before posting my own, I might have voted BG instead. Both Form and Nilp seemed more cobblerish than wolvish to me, whereas I thought Kath could be a quiet wolf.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

No. Never. Bothering with WW and Excel at the same time? Madness.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?).

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on the Hui-wagon (not Hui-agon, which would be an ancient Greek sports contest involving Hui or held in his honour):

Kath
'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions': I don't like the disclaimer, it sounds she doesn't want to be held accountable for what follows. Then:

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

The first part of this sentence describes Hui's behaviour correctly, the second half doesn't. He engaged people and gave his reads on them based on how they reacted, so I think he said quite a bit. It's also how I remember innocentHui playing in our first game together. Also, 'being loud but not saying much' is a pretty generic reason for suspecting someone. All of this looks to me like a quiet wolf fabricating a suspicion to fall back on later.

Shasta
'Hui's way of playing is likely to get him voted, NW wants to get lynched early, so Hui could be the NW.' Fair enough so far, although I'm not sure Hui was really a more likely NW than, say, Nilp* or maybe even Formy (actually if the NW plays loud bold & crazy in order to get lynched early, they might easily be mistaken for a chaotic cobbler).

The following 'I liked his response but I'll vote him anyway' doesn't feel right at all.

Rikae
Thought Hui's paranoia about a Lottie-Kath conspiracy against him 'looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience'. This is actually the only of the four Hui voters whose reasoning I find sound, because I thought the same at the time, although the following conversation between Hui and Lottie made me feel better about him.

Nog
Found or construed an apparent self-contradiction or slip in Hui's post leading up to his vote for Formy, which I don't think was there, or only could have looked that way if you only read that one post of Hui's and ignored the whole previous interaction between them. Defended his reading by much linguistic hair-splitting which still gives me a headache. In a way this is very much standard Nog, but it also looks forced to me.

If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

I'll be busy the next couple of hours but will be back in the European evening.

_________________


*I see he's cast off the chaotic cobbler cloak, that's a good thing. What kind of creature emerges from underneath remains to be seen.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Let's say it's late DAY 1, and you're the Seer. The person you dreamt of is likely (but doesn't yet look guaranteed) to be lynched. How far, exactly, would you go to save that person? Would you post like this?

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah. I really don't think [Huin]'s a wolf.

Even if that person was all but lynched, would you make posts like this?

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm pretty sure you are. Sorry. Hope you have a good time in the Dead Thread.

I'd go on a limb and say it would be remiss of me as a Seer on DAY 1 to make comments like this when hardly any vote has been cast yet:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you [Huin] as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

(This was posted three hours and 33 minutes before the deadline (and the only vote on the board was my Nilping.))

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?

[Nogrod]

It seems Greenie has opened a veritable Pandora's Box: spreadsheets, post-number and comment-number analysis, voting-minute comparisons...

Well, I'll still stick with a piece of paper and a pen.


First of all I must share the view expressed by a few already, that it seems likely the wolves were sitting back quite comfortably in the end of the Day. Especially in the light of Greenie's point, that the last votes could have been (or at least some of them probably were) crossposts. That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.


On Lottie then.

With all the possible caveats considered, the wolves do want in the end to get rid of the Seer as soon as possible. Just remember the last game where the wolves would have won hands down if they had managed to find the Seer. So I'd claim that even if they have no clue as to who that might be, they'll make their pick keeping their thumbs up that they get the Seer. I mean, that's the consideration they keep in mind all the time.

So we have two theories on Lottie's "seerishness" thus far, expressed nicely by Brinn and Greenie (who had doubts about the validity of the reasoning she presented).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet.

Brinn is correct that the Seer seldom hits a wolf on the first Night and thence it is much more probable that if the Seer leaves hints about someone, that one is an innocent person. But, I'd add, that if someone sending any "seer-vibes" happens to have picked one of them, they are more or less forced to act on it.

There is also this:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

Yes, it may be they were going to and fro between the two, and then decided on Lottie for one reason or another, but it makes me a bit less confident on this explanation.


Which brings me to the Legate-wolf -scenario.

Legate himself said:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

I tend to disagree with the reasoning here. If Lottie had suspected Legate for longer, but especially with some decent reasoning behind it, then there wouldn't have been a good reason for them to suspect her especially seerish. But Lottie did quite an awkward, one might even say fabricated, case for Legate and sticked to it with some confidence (or with what looked like confidence).

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.

So her just coming up with it late in the Day, and with non-existant reasons, actually makes her look more seerish than not - in case Legate is a wolf, that is.


On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.

[Nogrod]

Just a short add-on.

I see I X'd with Legate and Nilp - and there are some thoughts to add.

First of all I had forgotten how often Lottie said she thought hS looks innocent to her. Reading those made me think whether I was wrong saying Mac would have looked like a Seer as well (or even more) if the mark of seerishness for the wolves was defending Hui's innocence. Although there still is the fact that Lottie uses quite a lot of space explaining why she thinks Hui's innocent while Mac just states he takes a "leap of faith" on it. Hmm...

Originally Posted by Nilp

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?

Well, that is a question that seems to have one clear answer - and that is that Lottie voted Legate even if there seemed to be no real possibility of Legate being lynched instead of making sure or even trying to aid saving hS she so strongly felt innocent.

Although it must be added, that hS was not like lynched at the time Lottie voted - he was leading the tally but there were a handful of votes yet to come. But anyway.

Hard to say.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.

Glad to hear you come to roughly the same conclusion I did--although you could also be snared in that very trap.

These were two of Lottie's strong (DAY 1-strong, that is) suspicions:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Already well covered. She eventually voted for Legate.

Et l'autre........... c'est toi, Nogrod!

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

The use of 'radar' and 'closer look' might resemble Seer-ish clues. On the other hand, this level of obviousness seems about as naive as the repeated insistence on Hui's innocence, a point I've already raised.