Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

Except that Nilp can't do it again toMorrow, but the wolves can "do it again" in the sense of killing another gifted. And "beloved" could be any of several people, with Nilp as cover.
It just strikes me as the kind of thing a baddie might say for their own amusement - playing with fire - when they feel like victory is close.

Another thing: I realized I've been thinking of Lommy as innocentish all this time without any solid reason, and, reading back through her posts quickly, I was struck by how it all had this light, cheerful vibe, dancing around on the surface of things, talking a lot about game mechanics and other not-directly-productive stuff, those VERY easy votes. Why haven't I been considering her a possible wolf? She's been acting like a classic careful wolf!

[Brinniel]

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1

Originally Posted by Legate

I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Hmm...could go either way here.

Originally Posted by Legate

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Legate

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.

Originally Posted by Legate

Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Legate

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...

His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1


Hmm...could go either way here.


I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2


I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.


Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3


His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee!

I don't know if I agree with thinking Lommy and Rikae look better from Legate calling them innocent. That this pack didn't decide to bus the NW to activate their powers says to me that they're looking to stay cohesive and not really wolf-on-wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That is to say - it's entirely possible Greenie didn't dream of another wolf, which through Mac' list would result in no medium vote, which is a good-controlled vote we're missing out on. I don't like that - and I do think that's something a Macwolf would consider.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That is to say - it's entirely possible Greenie didn't dream of another wolf, which through Mac' list would result in no medium vote, which is a good-controlled vote we're missing out on. I don't like that - and I do think that's something a Macwolf would consider.

Ok, but, just aiming to empower an innocent player isn't necessarily going to be advantageous anyway because they don't know anything. So there's no guarantee that they're going to make a positive difference to the vote.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

[Thinlómien]

Phew looks like this is working again.

Boro, are the living allowed to view the post count (who posted) on the dead thread?

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

But this relies on somebody actually voting the person Greenie potentially dreamed of. If nobody does, then the Dead Thread would have to go with a no-vote. So it means no useful empowerment AND no information on a wolf if Greenie did dream of one.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta

That is to say - it's entirely possible Greenie didn't dream of another wolf, which through Mac' list would result in no medium vote, which is a good-controlled vote we're missing out on. I don't like that - and I do think that's something a Macwolf would consider.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

Guys... there's a potential known wolf waiting for us to be communicated from the dead. Knowing who that is by far outweighs the power of one single vote. And yeah, we will only know toMorrow, so what?

In either mine or Lommy's way, the medium vote is no longer used as a vote, but still has that effect and could potentially mess things up, that's true though. Maybe we can all make our voting intentions clear, with +- or otherwise, and then have an actual vote that is not close enough for the medium's vote to matter.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Kath

But this relies on somebody actually voting the person Greenie potentially dreamed of. If nobody does, then the Dead Thread would have to go with a no-vote. So it means no useful empowerment AND no information on a wolf if Greenie did dream of one.

Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Guys... there's a potential known wolf waiting for us to be communicated from the dead. Knowing who that is by far outweighs the power of one single vote. And yeah, we will only know toMorrow, so what?

In either mine or Lommy's way, the medium vote is no longer used as a vote, but still has that effect and could potentially mess things up, that's true though. Maybe we can all make our voting intentions clear, with +- or otherwise, and then have an actual vote that is not close enough for the medium's vote to matter.

Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

[Rikae]

Does anyone else find the way Brinn came out early in the day toDay with sort of ... boss lady energy (not meant in any insulting way, Brinn, actually pretty cool) and took control of the discourse a little worrying?

Particularly how she moved Shasta more firmly into the "known-ish-innocent" category than the situation warranted, and treated Kath as a dreamed wolf without a lot of evidence. And treating Lommy as innocent based on her being in Legate's green zone? Now, Legate is perfectly capable of a double-bluff, and Brinn, too, for that matter. The mutual trust between Brinn and Lommy doesn't seem warranted if they're both innocents. We can't afford to ignore anyone now.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

That's why it was my preference yesterDay. That said, if I had to do a prevote right now I'd honestly have no idea who to vote for. Greenie's posts left more questions than answers for me and at this point I think anyone, except probably Nilp, could be a wolf.

[Rikae]

What if the wolves are alphabetically adjacent?

I could totally see a cobblerMac calculating the likelihood of that ... I'm guessing it's high.