Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I do always attempt to tread carefully though, because even as a neutral official, I was asked if I unconsciously find myself rooting for one side over another?

The only place I feel you might have given away more than you meant to is here:

Originally Posted by Night 4 narration

She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out.

Which seems pretty clearly to indicate a) the Seer dreamt of a wolf last Night, and b) she hadn't dreamt of one before that. Both of which we dead'uns know to be true! I don't think any of the Living have caught it, though, because they're all convinced she voted Legate based on a dream.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Er...

Originally Posted by Mac

Day3

Her list helps a lot.
not dreamt of: Brinn, Form, me, Pitch, Sally, Lommy
possible wolf: Kath, Legate
possible innocent: Nilp, Rikae, Shasta

So Mac has just pulled out all three innocent dreams from Greenie's Seer-post. If he's a wolf - does he realise how strongly he's pointed the innocents at it? And if he's not a wolf - then why does he act like one?

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm now imagining a scenario where Legate was super nervous and paranoid all the way through every single night and convinced the pack to go for whoever suspected him each time.

Legate, is this true?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So Mac has just pulled out all three innocent dreams from Greenie's Seer-post. If he's a wolf - does he realise how strongly he's pointed the innocents at it? And if he's not a wolf - then why does he act like one?

My thoughts as well...

I'm still a bit unsure what we should do toDay. I mean yes, with not empowering anyone we'd send a message to them that we have no known wolf - which is correct and would probably be interpreted correctly by the villagers as what it says (I doubt they would pick from there any annoyance form our part if that is what we'd want to say).

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

We're getting pretty close to a situation where if there is even a slight feel of a wagon starting on a one of them the others might tighten their lines and it might end up close. Then our vote might make the difference.

So, I'd suggest we don't rush into voting to empower some specific person quite yet, but wait and see how it goes in the Game Thread.

And maybe share some general ideas as to what would be our best course of action.

[Loslote]

If our vote might swing it to someone we suspect (Kath, Mac, Lommy, maybe Sally or Pitch) from someone we don't (Shasta, Rikae, Nilp), we definitely should do that, regardless of what "message" it sends. If it's another mob lynch, we either shouldn't vote or, if Boro will allow us to Mediumize one of our own Dead friends, do that as a protest Medium vote. I will be around but maybe a little distracted for the last half hour before the DL, and we can have two innocents not vote or vote early and be overvoted if need be.

[Loslote]

Of these six people:

Kath
Mac
Lommy
Sally
Brinn
Pitch

We have three or four evils (three wolves, one cobbler - I am fairly confident the cobbler is not one of Greenie's dreams, so probably four). Odds should be really good that they hit a wolf toDay. I don't know why the living still seem so confused. What are the innocents doing?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

We're getting pretty close to a situation where if there is even a slight feel of a wagon starting on a one of them the others might tighten their lines and it might end up close. Then our vote might make the difference.

So, I'd suggest we don't rush into voting to empower some specific person quite yet, but wait and see how it goes in the Game Thread.

I absolutely agree: killing Wolves is the full priority.

But if, for example, Mac is already on the chopping block, I say we maintain silence.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My thoughts as well...

I'm still a bit unsure what we should do toDay. I mean yes, with not empowering anyone we'd send a message to them that we have no known wolf - which is correct and would probably be interpreted correctly by the villagers as what it says (I doubt they would pick from there any annoyance form our part if that is what we'd want to say).

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

Absolutely, and I agree with waiting and seeing. I think following Mac's plan (and not Mediumming anyone, to tell them we have no known wolf) is a plausible Plan C, but I think we can do better.

My Plan A would be to follow the Mac plan, but with a wolf as the target of the Medium's vote. So Nilp , Brinn , or maybe Mac - whichever votes for a likely wolf. The main issues here are a) they might not vote that way, and b) we'd be deliberately lying to the village.

Plan B would be to ignore the Mac plan entirely and just Medium someone voting for a probable wolf. This gives us the highest chance of affecting today's lynch, but would be wildly misinterpreted if the villagers buy into Mac's plan. We'd definitely want to avoid Mediumming Pitch, Sally, or Lommy, since those three would 'implicate' a known innocent.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Absolutely, and I agree with waiting and seeing. I think following Mac's plan (and not Mediumming anyone, to tell them we have no known wolf) is a plausible Plan C, but I think we can do better.

My Plan A would be to follow the Mac plan, but with a wolf as the target of the Medium's vote. So Nilp , Brinn , or maybe Mac - whichever votes for a likely wolf. The main issues here are a) they might not vote that way, and b) we'd be deliberately lying to the village.

Plan B would be to ignore the Mac plan entirely and just Medium someone voting for a probable wolf. This gives us the highest chance of affecting today's lynch, but would be wildly misinterpreted if the villagers buy into Mac's plan. We'd definitely want to avoid Mediumming Pitch, Sally, or Lommy, since those three would 'implicate' a known innocent.

hS

They'd better not hold off on voting until the last ten minutes, or we'll never be able to sort through all the ramifications in time.

[Loslote]

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

[Loslote]

If Pitch was a wolf, he would have known that Form was innocent, and I don't think he would have reacted so strongly to Rikae's Seer hinting. But if he was a cobbler, he would have shown up as an ordo, and wouldn't have had to worry about the Seer at all. I'm very confused about him right now.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

I agree. Right now I still think Mac, Lommy and Kath are the likeliest candidates for our remaining wolves, though I could be very wrong too. But guys - if we wanted to nudge them towards having a look at Lommy, in Mac's list that would mean empowering Brinn again Trouble is, they'd probably just think we were trolling and not take us seriously. And anyway, a Macwolf might be a bigger problem at the moment than a Lommywolf, given how he's taking the reins now..

Second thing - I won't be around at deadline (it's 1AM here and I'm not good at staying up late) so if we need to react quickly to last-minute voting again I won't be much help. But if we do come up with a plan by around 2h before deadline, I can vote then and you guys can still change the plan afterwards if something comes up?