TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I just spent like an hour by analysing the votes, so I'm gonna do this first. But before that, regarding Form's death...

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Obviously they voted Sally which for me is a predicament. I do think her initial post of “around but tired” then just a non commital “no vote vote no time” post. I find that frustrating and easily a wolffish submarine tactic. HOWEVER, the night kill obvious points at Sally which makes me think it’s too obvious it’s her and therefor not her. But also it could be a move set on making that argument and it IS her.

This actually is a thought process I can more or less follow and agree with. But I even more agree with Boro on that obviously, the WWs would be interested in getting rid of the Seer first. That - unless they are acting in some really unorthodox manner - basically means that a) they thought Form was the Seer, or b) by way of negation there was nobody they thought more likely to be the Seer. Which is something to consider too.

Otherwise: voting. Okay, let's have the list for convenience:

Kath > Morsul
Greenie > Pitch
Morsul > hS
Lommy > hS [2]
Legate > Greenie
Huinesoron > Greenie [2]
Form > Sally
Boro > Lottie
Lottie > Greenie [3]
Sally > no vote (thus making it clear at this point that her vote wasn't following)
Pitch > hS [3]
(not voted: Soriman)

It is quite interesting that the first couple of votes (Kath's for Morsul and Greenie's for Pitch) were eventually completely forgotten. From purely analytical point of view, in the small numbers in the village, I think we actually had a "healthy spread" of votes (meaning, not just one huge bandwagon for one person, and not even two bandwagons - there were two, but "big" here meant three votes, and there were votes for four completely different people still).

I actually think this is "healthy" in the sense that it does not show the, hum hmm, "herd mentality", and individual votes are more... well, individual; therefore saying more about those who cast them. That is not to say that the spread does not make it an ideal place for throwaway votes.

Kath and Greenie voted early, so it was hardly throwaway; in fact, with Morsul being discussed, Kath might have expected him to gather more. The follow-up possibility is that if one of the first voted (i.e. Morsul or Pitch) was a Wolf, the steering away from these completely later might have been the result of a specific effort of other Wolves to steer clear of one or them (or, in the most extreme case, both).

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

Also knowing Greenie being innocent, Lottie's vote which "sealed the deal" might have been a way of Lotwolf to save a fellow Huiwolf from the noose. But I think a scenario where Hui and Lottie are both Wolves who voted in order to save Hui would be almost to good to be true. Of course, it is perfectly possible. But Lottie doing this specifically in order to save Hui requires multiple premises to be true first.

Interestingly enough, purely based on vibe when looking at the list of votes, Pitch's vote strikes me as rather sinister because he had his opinions, then voted for Hui. And that was at the point when Greenie was leading, and Soriman was left to vote (with it not being sure whether he will). So Pitch's vote was potentially throwaway (if e.g. again the scenario that Hui was a Wolf was true - he would no longer endanger a packmate and at the same time distance himself from him) and at the same time not getting his "hands dirty" in lynching an innocent.

The one visibly "throwaway" vote is Boro's (and Form's would be too), posted at the time when there were two "bandwagons" (the quotation marks are intentional, because they were two votes large at that point - on the other hand, again, like I said, in a village of this size that is already something...) and multiple other votes he could have tied for 2, and not so many people left to vote that one could reasonably assume casting one vote for Lottie would get her lynched. So, yes, that is one thing that raises my alertness when it comes to Boro.

That is more or less it when it comes to the votes.

With all this being said, I think that the words of Form from yesterDay have quite a big of merit and I would consider looking at those who were (or are) quieter and slipping under the radar. It is good to see sally around and posting, I hope also more will follow from Soriman.

More thoughts later, I will be back. *cue in Terminator theme*

[Huinesoron]

I was going to start by answering Pitchwife's question from late yesterDay (the answer being: no, it didn't particularly occur to me that Greenie would see their "flimsy... not confident about this" vote as being something that would attract overNight attention even from Wolf!Pitch), but then I looked at Pitch's history and I Have Questions.

These are the only comments I can find from Pitch on Greenie's alignment:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Greenie feels neutral, slightly on the goodish side.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I thought earlier that Greenie might fit the job description for the X wolf steering clear of the Hui/Morsul business, but I don't really see anything screaming wolf in her (yet). I might go for Lottie or Kath.

Whereas he spent a fair bit of time discussing ways I might be a wolf. So, Question 1:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's between Hui and Greenie, I'd actually (Legate 180 incoming) rather go for Hui just now. Anybody else?

How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?

Question 2:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

sally, seriously?

In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.

With all that in mind, Question 3:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.

Sally, what about Pitch's reaction looks particularly innocent/trustworthy to you?

hS

[Huinesoron]

Thinking about about Form's death - my first instinct was to say that even Wolf!Sally might not kill him as a suspected seer, because it would point the finger exclusively at her. I considered it more likely that he was a no-trail killing with a handy side-effect of implicating Sally.

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.

Which means that if Sally isn't a wolf, then as Legate said a couple of posts back, none of the wolves felt they might have been scryed. I think that actually clears Morsul to an extent, because they could definitely have felt scryed yesterDay.

hS

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

But I've just remembered the Dead and the Ghost. The wolves know that the Seer's visions won't die with them - they can come back as a Ghost and attempt to convey them with no suspicion of lying. I think that tips the scales: they can't go "we'll kill him toMorrow Night when Sally looks less obvious as the reason", because that's another dream for the Seer that will come back to haunt them. I think they'd go for even a highly risky Seer-kill like Form's would have been for Sally.
hS

That’s an interesting thought I hadn’t really considered the implications of the ghost strategy, and how it affects the wolves’ aggression. This certainly could point in Sally’s direction. But if your follow up is correct(they didn’t feel they were found out) there’s two possibilities;

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

Xed Boro

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

1. None of the votes are wolves, this is unlikely just based on probability but not impossible.
This would clear Me, Huin, Pitch, Sally, Lottie. I can’t believe that. That would leave five players Boro, Lommie, Legate, Kath, and Sorimon in this crazy unlikely scenario 3/5 of those players are the pack.

It's not quite that bad! Sally's voter was killed overNight, so they might have thought him the Seer. Pitch's voter was killed in the lynch, so they knew they weren't. That only leaves three of your "clears", and as you say:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

2. Far more likely, if they didn’t feel they were found out, it’s likely if they received vote(s) the reasoning behind those votes didn’t trouble them. This requires a must closer scrutiny of votes and reasoning.

I've already said I think you come out looking pretty good. Obviously I'm not unbiased about myself, but I think wolf!Lottie would (or could) have seen Boro's vote as standard Day 1 reasoning-based.

(And since I trimmed the end off a sentence in my last post: this "clear" of Morsul only applies if Sally is innocent!)

hS

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would agree with this, but we don't have anyone who could qualify as a 'lurker' who I would be willing to vote. It's Soriman's first game, so it's expected that he'll be posting less often as he gets the hang of the game, Sally is usually quieter, especially on Day 1, I've really appreciated Kath's posts when she was here, and I think I'm next up for quantity of posts...

You want to vote for someone with only a few posts, but not Soriman because he is a newbie, not Kath because she's helpful, and not Sally... because she's Sally? I feel like Lottie is letting Sally off the hook a bit too easy here, which could be a wolf conveniently giving a fellow a pass on not particularly legit grounds. If either of Lottie or Sally turns out to be a wolf, I'd have a closer look at the other one.

Originally Posted by Lottie

My memory may be imperfect, but what I remember from playing with Huinwolf was feeling like we were on the same page, he's contributing great stuff, top of my innocent list, and then Legate caught something - a vibe or what, I don't remember - and we voted him out over a very short period of time. I am not getting that same vibe this game. Again, memory may be faulty - it's been a while - but toDay he feels more like the innocent Huin that I've played with before, who is always the first person stirring the pot and poking and prodding people. I'm not saying I trust him fully, just that I don't suspect him, and I think the people who are pushing that suspicion are pulling it a bit out of thin air. It's Day 1 - that's understandable - but you're acting like it's blatantly obvious that he's a wolf and it's bizarre that I'm not on board with that suspicion, when really, there's nothing more to this suspicion than there is to any other suspicion based on zero information. It's really easy to suspect Huin, and I don't know why you're so convinced of his wolfyness based on, from my perspective, not a ton to back it up.

I did not mean that it was weird that you consider(ed) Huin innocent-seeming or defended him, just that your rather strong language there caught my eye, as well as the fabricated seeming argument based on his performance in previous games. Something about the combo made me think "wolf protecting a fellow she doesn't want to see lynched on Day1".

Side note: based on these two minor points, I would be really tempted to jump into contemplating a Lottie-Sally-Huin pack, but I don't think I've ever made a 100% correct pack prediction on day2 so... But if turns out to be them, then I TOLD YOU SO, ALREADY ON DAY2.

Ok now that I got that off my chest, let's proceed...

Originally Posted by Pitch

Everybody hates seeing innocents lynched, but somebody will be lynched toDay, and if you don't vote you're just washing your hands. Wolves kill at Night, whether we lynch or not, and lynching is our only way of getting at them. So pick someone and remember, it's all just a game.

Can I have this on my tombstone? (Ok, maybe that's not a good thing to say during a ww game. ) But really, beautifully articulated. I should maybe steal it for my signature. This is exactly why I hate people suggesting - on Day1 or otherwise - not voting as an option. It's just stupid. That being said, RL problems or no, I'm not a fan of Sally's no-vote. If you're an innocent, you should vote. Even if you haven't had the time to properly read through everything. By abstaining from voting, you're giving the wolves' votes proportionately more weight.

Originally Posted by Boro

I will also trust my read on Lommy in my last post. It's weak, but every time I read her posts and get the image that she's arguing with herself, like Smeagol/Gollum it's a good sign. I mean it might not be good for her own sanity, but that reaction is hard for someone to fabricate.

Finally, someone who understands me and my struggles!

Originally Posted by Morsul

I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.

Yeah but also the deadline is at midnight for her, so it's not a surprise if she chooses to vote early. Ergo, just "voting early" is not really a very strong grounds for suspecting her.

[Boromir88]

Nothing like some Werewolf-searching after waking up in the morning. And even better when there's not a lot to catch up on.

Originally Posted by sally

Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.

I think I have my sally-radar correctly calibrated as well. When you are busy-tired-wolf-sally you use the little time you have to try to create chaos. My first reaction to your no vote yesterday was "sally's been busy but it looks like she's trying to create chaos at the DL," which is why I was very interested to see what you would say today.

Your post #121 looks still busy-tired-sally but using the little time you have to genuinely help us by stating your opinions on where people stand with you. Now your no vote yesterday looks like you legit couldn't catch up and I can see an innocent-sally not wanting to vote for just anyone under those circumstances. It's a shame you'll still be busy-tired-sally, but now your vote and posts today look genuine and thus you were not attempting to create chaos popping in last minute Day 1.

Originally Posted by Lottie

This is why I never bother to try to play a certain way or act "normal", no one can agree on how I play "normally" anyway. Am I normally aggressive? Am I normally a ruffler? Chalk this one up to the duality of man.

Well, by "ruffler" I mean ruffling feathers, you tend to be on a similar level to Huey, in poking and annoying people, as you did with Morsul beginning today. I don't know if it says anything about your alignment, but I agree with sally that it looked aggressive, and that is theLottie I'm most familiar with, who didn't appear at all yesterday.

That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.

Originally Posted by Legate

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

I mean I see you are the first vote for Greenie, so regardless of your alignment you're not going to suspect y ourself, but what about Morsul being the 1st vote for Huey? Why are the 2nd votes more suspicious than the 1st votes? Because 1 vote a bandwagon does not create, but the first vote for someone still has the potential to start a bandwagon, while also keeping relatively safe from scrutiny if there was a bandwagon.

I'm not sure if Pitch has trademarked it yet, but *ping* (if you have, Pitch, royalties will be sent )

Edit: crossed with Huey's 2nd post

[Pitchwife]

Back from work and catching up.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

How is 'staying with your previous opinions' now a "Legate 180"? Was the implication that he might pull a 180 in the future, er, eight minutes? If so, based on those previous stated opinions - why?

Because earlier I felt you and Morsul were most likely two innocent at odds(see #45) and one or more wolves might be fanning the flames. My speculations about the chances of your being a wolf were concerned with posts by others about you (as in the infamous case of Legate's temporary amnesia, or what Kath said about wolf-on-wolf between you and Morsul) rather than your own, which I didn't find very suspicious - so voting you was a "Legate 180" on my part, as in: a sudden turn manœuver named after him because he has it copyrighted, like Lommy for flip-flopping and the phantom for grand schemes.

As for Greenie, that part wasn't 180 - I wasn't happy with her voting me, but otherwise by the end of the Day I was willing to bet she was innocent.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In context (the "anyone else?" from the previous quote), this seems very like frustration that Sally hadn't voted for me. In which case, if the previous quote indicates that Pitch has or might "Legate 180" between me and Greenie - why this exasperation at someone not enabling my lynch over Greenie's? It seems out of proportion with Pitch's indicated uncertainty/wavering.

It was primarily frustration that she hadn't voted for anybody, but truth is I felt more confident that Greenie was innocent than I felt about you, and I'd have liked to save her, so yes, it was also frustration that the cavalry was failing to show up and my own vote ended up being effectively throwaway. If the choice had been between you and somebody else my vote might have been different.

[satansaloser2005]

Grrrr. Things keep popping up at work today, and it's my last day before I'm out for a week, so I'm horrendously busy. The good news is I will be around pretty steadily once today is over. The bad news is I will probably have to vote early because I don't want to forget again.

[Pitchwife]

Speaking of turns (although this is rather a quicksandy shift):

Originally Posted by Lottie #63

I don't want to vote for Huin, Greenie, or Pitch, all three of whom are people who've drawn votes and attention so far toDay. I might be willing to vote Morsul, but frankly, I think it's just as likely he's innocent as a wolf, so I don't love that option, either. Hopefully something changes before DL…

Originally Posted by Lottie #95, the vote post

Okay, it's getting towards the deadline, and I'm still struggling a bit with this one. I would honestly prefer to vote Morsul or Pitch, but I don't know who all is still around to vote, so I'm probably going to go with one of the two candidates who've received multiple votes, at least in part to make sure it's less likely a sudden bandwagon on Boro's vote leaves me all alone in the Dead Thread (). I've been back and forth on Greenie all Day, but I suspect her more than I suspect Huin.

Originally Posted by Lottie 113

First to reach the tie wins it, and I knew there were very few people left to vote (myself, Pitch, and Soriman and Sally, who were unlikely to vote at all). I wasn't very afraid for my own life in this game, because I didn't think Sally or Soriman would vote for me, but you never know.

So, Lottie would have liked to vote two of the four people she'd earlier said she didn't want to vote, but with no support forthcoming, she ended up voting a third of the same four people because she suspected her more than the fourth. What happened?



Also, Lottie, since you didn't think sally or Sori would vote at all, if you were concerned for your own life you could have voted me (not that that would have been any better), and by the Rule of First you would have been safe. So whom were you really trying to save, yourself or Hui?

[satansaloser2005]

What some people seem to forget about Pitch and I is that we were packmates in the last game, so I feel like I have a pretty good read on him solely based on that. Besides, and innocent Pitch would be aggravated by someone no voting, while this would obviously have benefited a wolf Pitch because he knew one of Greenie or Hui would die, and if he were a wolf with Hui, he wouldn't have pitched (har har) him for lynching in the first place.

[satansaloser2005]

Also, Pitch is making some great points about Lottie in his post above mine. I'm very comfortable voting Lottie today, though I'll still wait to see if something else comes out of the woodwork.

[Morsul the Dark]

So this is flimsy but I’ll toss it out there Lottie gave me a hard time for not having reads on two people but in Post 123 gave Sally a pass for the like four people she had no read on in her list.

This with her saving Hui

My very flimsy theory entirely contingent on WolfLottie is Sally Lottie Huin pack

Xed Sallyx2

[Soriman the Whide]

Appologies for my scarce posts, I should have more time for this game in the coming days.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Soriman- newbie pass I feel a new wolf would be more panicky?

Of course, everyone can trust me! The meta gaming really gives me a free pass .

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Under this model, there are lots of singular votes that by themselves do not say much except that they are still creating alternatives (and at the same time are potentially throwaway). Whom I would put under scrutiny are actually the people who made the second votes, thus making the bandwagons roll (Lommy and Hui, with the added value that Hui was acting clearly with the bonus to prevent a wagon against himself - the question of course being that he could have equally well voted for Morsul or Pitch, if it was just about that). Either of them could have acted as Wolves protecting one of Morsul or Pitch (who had votes from before) by supporting bandwagons for somebody else.

I can follow this line of thinking and it does make sense to me, Huin does seem suspicious to me but I do not know if this is just his aggressive playstyle, I feel most people would aggressivley defend their life if they can but Huin also appears (at least to me) to favour shifting blame to others.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

This though is just very narrow and focused on only 2 people, Lommy and Huey (those who made the 2nd vote for either Greenie/Huey). Why do you ignore the 1st votes for Greenie or Huey? I'm not buying the "1st votes for someone aren't suspicious because it's still creating an alternative and thus the 2nd votes are more suspicious because those votes got a potential bandwagon going."

Wouldn't it be likely the wolves will follow the first votes on day one? After the first votes wovles can more safely vote without having to hold their vote to save a fellow wolf. If someone voted with a bandwagon there is still safety in the large group.

I can't be certain of anything but I hope Huin is on our side as he seems like a powerful ally.


That said I'm just going to lock in my vote for ++Lottie as Huins most likely packmate (if he is one of them) in my mind.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

That said I'm just going to lock in my vote for ++Lottie as Huins most likely packmate (if he is one of them) in my mind.

Well this escalated quickly. I'm happy that you are here and posting. But is this just based on the premise that Hui is a Wolf??? Would not in such a case it make sense to vote for him - not to speak that what if the premise itself was false?

EDIT: x-ed after my last

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Otherwise... I would personally prefer to vote, well, after what happened a moment ago I'd feel like voting for Soriman on impulse, but a) I would like to hear some clarification and b) I do not feel like casting a vote based on effectively the only post he's made.

But otherwise my top options would include Pitch and Boro with his strange analysis, and I think lynching Hui would also clarify several things, even though I started feeling better about him during the course of toDay. Of those who have votes I am not comfortable to cast my vote for Lottie and with lynching sally there are just so many "what ifs" - the whole Form question of frames or double-frames or whatever.

I will think on this; I am not going to sleep yet at this very moment.

[Pitchwife]

So, looking at yesterDay's non-votees. This is going to be impressionistic as I'm getting tired.
Boro - want to trust him and second-guessing myself. Ilike his thought-processes and to some part the conclusions he arrives at, esp. about a Legate/Hui connection (the part about "Hui + X").
Kath - I'm a bit worried by her single-minded conviction that Form's death must point to sally's guilt, which I'd expect from a wolf whose pack went for a no trace kill with the benefit of framing sally. The rest of her posts seem very reasonable and balanced.
Legate - is a slippery fish, also a furry fish? (would that be seal, or an otter?) Among the five non-votees I'm least inclined to trust him ATM. It doesn't help that he keeps painting me black. Also just saw this:

Originally Posted by Legate

I think lynching Hui would also clarify several things, even though I started feeling better about him during the course of toDay

What the frell is this? If you're feeling better about someone you don't consider lynching them just to clarify things!

Lommy - found her suspicious early yesterDay, felt better about her later, haven't examined her enough to form a solid opinion since


If it's between Lottie and sally I'll be in a sore place. I do get the frustrated innocent ring from Lottie, and I don't really get the case against sally.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What the frell is this? If you're feeling better about someone you don't consider lynching them just to clarify things!

"Better", but not exonerating. I am still considering him suspicious enough to merit a vote otherwise.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Soriman the Whide

Of course, everyone can trust me! The meta gaming really gives me a free pass .

That’s not eyebrow raising at all.

I hate voting early this post sends Every bad vibe

[Boromir88]

Legate's response does give me a slight bit of caution and glad I decided to step back. I do find his analysis still suspicious, but these are good points to my belaboring the point throughout the day:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But you can say that about any vote, obviously. If I understand you correctly, and if you are genuine about this, then it seems to me we just differ in the manner of rhetorics. I simply believe that the second votes, especially in this small number, were more decisive than singular first votes. It's like if I said "billionnaires are rich" and then you disputed me by saying that millionnaires are also rich. I am not disputing that they are.


You can call it whichever way you want. Both were possibly incriminating there. Pitch's was, let's call it more conveniently placed, and it both followed a switch from his older suspects to voting somebody who was likely not going to get lynched and at the same time not getting his hands dirty by lynching an innocent. Bonus value if Hui is a Wolf and Pitch thus cast a Wolf-on-Wolf vote in a safe space. That was the gist of what I was saying about him.

Both fair. Pitch's and Lottie's votes are incriminating and it could be a difference in the manner of how we interpret and judge the placement of when people vote.

Huey is shooting up red flags and it's not because he's voted or suspects me at all. It's this, which I definitely classify as "sinister."

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

At this point I find Boro most suspicious in isolation, but either Pitch or (to a lesser extent) Lommy in conjunction with a wolf Sally.

So you're most suspicious of me and cast suspicion my way, and state that Pitch and Lommy are also less suspicious, but out of the 4 of us you called sally a wolf. If you truly think sally is a wolf...why not vote for sally? So are you saying Pitch and Lommy are suspicious if sally turns out to be a wolf?

Then in your post that you voted for me, again you throw up "wolfSally"

Originally Posted by Huey

I think lynching a WolfSally would shed a lot of light, but I also think it would be an easy lynch for the wolves to jump on board because of the "SeerForm" thing. Also, per my last, I have no read on Sally as wolfish except for "SeerForm" logic.

If you think lynching wolfSally would shed more light on things...why in the blazes did you vote for me? I get if I look suspicious, fare enough, but this is VERY RED FLAG. "Lynching wolfSally might shed some more light on things, but I'm just going to vote for someone else anyway."

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If you think lynching wolfSally would shed more light on things...why in the blazes did you vote for me? I get if I look suspicious, fare enough, but this is VERY RED FLAG. "Lynching wolfSally might shed some more light on things, but I'm just going to vote for someone else anyway."

Blaarg, this is why I couldn't sleep, I knew someone would pick a turn of phrase and try to make make me a Definite Wolf over it... since it was apparently not obvious, by "wolf!Sally" I meant that IF Sally is a wolf, lynching them would be best because it would provide information on Pitch and Lommy (as stated, it would look bad for them IF Sally is a wolf). But I have NOT read anything which makes Sally feel like a wolf to me, and so I think it's a coin toss: WolfSally or InnocentSally.

Since I'm pretty sure you are a wolf, I'd rather lynch you than gamble on Sally.

hS (is still trying to sleep)

Xed with Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Pitch

What the frell is this? If you're feeling better about someone you don't consider lynching them just to clarify things!

Unless, I might add, you don't care either way who gets lynched as long as it's not one of your pack.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Blaarg, this is why I couldn't sleep, I knew someone would pick a turn of phrase and try to make make me a Definite Wolf over it... since it was apparently not obvious, by "wolf!Sally" I meant that IF Sally is a wolf, lynching them would be best because it would provide information on Pitch and Lommy (as stated, it would look bad for them IF Sally is a wolf). But I have NOT read anything which makes Sally feel like a wolf to me, and so I think it's a coin toss: WolfSally or InnocentSally.

Since I'm pretty sure you are a wolf, I'd rather lynch you than gamble on Sally.

hS (is still trying to sleep)

Xed with Pitch

Is it a turn of a phrase or a slip to protect yourself if I am lynched and revealed to everyone that I am innocent?

Because you have listed the people you are suspicious of (Myself, Lommy, Pitch, and sally) and only referred to sally as a wolf. Now if you are innocent and truly voting for me, being the most suspicious looking person to you, fair enough. But you didn't call me a wolf in your post when you voted for me. You said in your vote post for me that I was "most likely a wolf," while directly referring to sally as a wolf.

But I've said my bit on this, made my point now and won't continue hammering on about it.

++Huey

[Galadriel55]

Morsul --> Sally
Sally --> Lottie
Kath --> Sally (2)
Soriman --> Lottie (2)
Hui --> Boro
Boro --> Hui


DL in 1 hour. Dead vote comes in at deadline.

[Thinlómien]

So toDay Huin/Legate/Boro is a thing? I can't quite put my finger on it, but the blaming others for tunnel vision while tunnel visioning themselves circle is certainly eye catching. Something about it seems fishy to me. Sorry, that's not very analytical I know but something's off there. I'm also tempted to give them all a pass for toDay - which I probably shouldn't - because all their long posts, especially Boro and Legate's, are giving me headache. They're getting pretty advanced, and I don't have the patience right now (it's 0.30 and the last workday of the week and I'm feeling it) to untangle it. But I'm saying once again there's something furry going on here.

I feel better about both Morsul and Lottie. They're giving me vibes of frustrated ordos trying to work things out.

I'm a little frustrated about Sally (sorry kidney muffin, I know you must be frustrated too) and her lack of participation. Does she seem guilty to me? No, not really, I don't think it very likely she'd kill Form as a wolf, she's not that paranoid usually. Does she seem innocent to me? No, because she hasn't said anything that would make me trust her either. Should we lynch her? Who knows?? It's a shot in the dark, but I would prefer it to lynching someone I consider innocent. Should we give her a pass until Day3 just because she's been busy? That doesn't sound fair either.

Generally re: the seer/ wolf kill speculation. I'm gonna criticise myself here a little too (see my formalysis) but I don't understand why people are so hell bent in always thinking the wolves would kill someone who looks like a seer because they suspected them. I mean statistically seers are much more likely to dream of innocents. The wolves know who are innocent. Ergo, wouldn't they be on the lookout for someone seerishly talking about someone innocent as innocent, not just for someone seerishly talking about a wolf as suspicious?

I feel considerably less good about Kath toDay than yesterDay. I mean she comes, posts bulky analyses that are mostly recap, makes again a very easy vote (yesterDay Morsul who's a guaranteed suspicion grabber on day1 regardless of his role, toDay Sally whom Form's death mildly implicates and who's not really around to defend herself).

Originally Posted by Huin

Lommy in #136 makes a weird-sounding claim that WolfSally wouldn't have thought Form was a Seer because the vote and justification 'didn't seem like Seerish suspicion'. Which, a) a Seer who dreamed a wolf doesn't suspect, but more importantly b) a Seer who thought they could kill their dreamed wolf by making it look random would surely do that rather than going "I SEE that Sally is a wolf, do you SEE what I mean".

Okay fair point, I didn't think of it that way! I thought Form's phrasing didn't look seerish and ergo wolf!Sally wouldn't likely have been worried about it, but it's true that in the seer's case especially actions mean more than words, and a seer!Form who had dreamed of wolf!Sally would have certainly taken the opportunity to lynch her if possible. Maybe I'm a bit slow but I didn't think of it from that angle (maybe because I know Form wasn't the seer)

Soriman's vote = ????????????

Originally Posted by Legate

This is an interesting remark from Kath and I did not realise it fully at first, but in retrospect, it is true - and I am not sure what to make of it. Hui is certainly no beginner player who would need to latch onto and just copypaste somebody else's opinion. But it seems to me we have also converged at multiple times, so maybe we just think in a similar manner.

Or you're both wolves and working as a united front in order to terminate the village faster?


edit: xed with Pitch and Legate

[Thinlómien]

As I said, I would prefer the whole Legate/Hui/Boro kettle of fish for toMorrow because I'm not sure what to think about it. I feel considerably less certain of Legate and Boro's innocence than yesterDay - both of them have been a little shady toDay - but I don't think I have any actual arguments against them. Huin I still find suspicious, but Form's death makes him look a little better. If I had to pick one of them to lynch toDay I would probably prefer Huin over Legate, and Legate over Boro. But I would still like to unpack this with a fresher brain.

Like I said, Lottie and Morsul look better to me now. Not a huge fan of the idea of lynching either of them toDay.

Sally? I'm okay with that, but I'm not sure it's the smartest move. I feel like this whole Sally thing has been blown a little out of proportion while she's not here to defend herself, which is a little suspicious in itself.

I would feel the most comfortable voting Kath (see my previous post) or Pitchwife, whose argumentation keeps going in circles I cannot understand and that seem concoluted and wolvish to me.

But if I had to pick from the current vote candidates, I'd probably go for Sally. I have less misgivings about it than about lynching Boro or Lottie.

Oh yes and Soriman. Really not sure what to make of that. His argumentation is bizarre and he's on par with Sally when it comes to how much content he's posted. Not very impressed by his vote, but not sure it merits being called suspicious. It's mostly odd.


edit: xed with Gal and Boro

[Thinlómien]

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THIS HUIN / BORO / LEGATE BOVINE EXCREMENT????

Now you're making me consider it toDay. I have a headache.

I really don't know which one of you is the wolf / wolves, but if you're all three innocent I'm gonna eat my mousepad.*


*...or with my recent ww track record, maybe not. But you get the sentiment.

[Thinlómien]

Btw currently contemplating the idea of a Boro / Huin / Legate pack and laughing my head off. I can't say if they'd be brilliant or really terrible at their job. But I'm pretty sure it would play out almost exactly like this. They'd probably have planned their wolf-on-wolf drama beforehand at Night.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THIS HUIN / BORO / LEGATE BOVINE EXCREMENT????

The only thing I'm certain of toDay, is I will gladly offer my service to my Lord and my loyal companions. If that service requires my life so I can join my fallen brethren, Form and Greenie, then so be it.

I hope I have not erred with my stubbornness by actually aiding the 3 betrayers among us. Some of my initial conclusions yesterday may have been misplaced, but I don't think I've erred today. If I have then may death reveal my true heart.

Edit: crossed with Lottie and Legate