T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning [Archive] - Page 2 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Ilya

01-08-2009, 01:23 PM

Start Page 5

Post 165 - Agan: Of these I'd probably vote Nog. I don't have that many options anyway, I've been too lazy/tired to do anything productive today.

Post 177 - Menel: So just what is this thing with Nogrod, anyhow? I don't think everyone but Fea and the phantom should be kept out of the loop on this.

Post 180 - Lariren: Though from the looks of it I should be considering Nog.

Post 190 - Brinn: I don't feel like spreading out the votes anymore...among those already on the tally, I'd consider Nog, Sally, or Mac.

Post 192 - Sally: Hmmmm....Nog seems to be a bit off to me. But I've never been terribly good at reading the fellow, and I'm afraid that if I voted him it would be just because he voted for me. At the same time, he was rubbing me as a bit off before he voted me, so I may fall either way.

Post 193 - Sally: So of all his 'suspects' (or lack thereof), he votes Mac because Mac suspects him? I lied. Menel does look a bit fishy now. I mean, I may not be happy that people suspect me, but them suspecting me doesn't necessarily make them guilty. Seems much more like a self-preservation tactic than anything else.

I suppose my first three choices are Menel, Nog, and Mac, semi in that order.

Post 195 - Ilya: And...I don't get where the Nogrod thing came up because I haven't had time to read page 4. So, I'm gonna try and do that.

Post 196 - Opera Ghost: I think Nog needs to be given the chance to help us. He will read carefully and analyze and accuse and by the time Day 3 comes I imagine he'll have a good idea about what's going on. Don't kill him.

Post 197 - Kath: Nog - not sure if he was actually suspicious of Gwath when he mentioned him but whatever the case it came across as quite pointed. Alright I do understand why he gets annoyed with people who aren't around much during the Day and I am a terrible offender for that, so for a Day 1 lynch vote I understand where he's coming from. However, given that Mith is our mod I don't believe she'd make a non-participant a wolf. Then mentions that even those with high post counts can actually be saying nothing. Thinks Bowie quite suspicious for the Cobbler remark. Votes sally - so switched quite dramatically from his original 'will vote for a quiet person' idea. Not keen on the inconsistency but he did produce good reasoning for his suspicions.

End Page 5.

Gwathagor

01-08-2009, 01:32 PM

I'm wondering how many caught Nog's Divo comment.

I noticed it, but I really didn't give it a second thought. I assumed he was joking.

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 01:37 PM

Overall, I wanted to be a target.~tp
Really? I would never have guessed. :rolleyes:

I think that would fit the MO of critics who are familiar with the traps. I attempted to help you become one in that way, talking about "raining down greek fire" and tempting the critics by my wanting to see if they had the nerve to do what they couldn't last time, and that is get rid of you early. Are the critics than ones who are familiar with the ploys and this time did "pull the trigger" early so to say?

Because I'm trying to think of who would want to get rid of you this early - I mean you probably don't need me to tell you this - as much as we all complain of your annoyance and arrogance, we secretly love it. :p

Ilya

01-08-2009, 01:37 PM

Man, this stuff is making my eyes hurt. Begin Page 6.

Post 201 - Brinn: Noggie gives more substance, but I find of what he does say, I tend to disagree with more. Of all the candidates so far, he's the one who gives me the biggest wolfish vibe. A feeling is not much, but it's all I can really offer. I don't have time to give it more thought, and I wouldn't mind at all seeing him lynched.

++Nogrod

Post 202 - Gollum (to Nogrod): I do not intend to post only once a day this game. I mentioned in the admin thread that my first day or two would be full, and werewolf (as much as I would like it to be so) is not at the top of my priority list. My thought on Strongbow is nothing more than a nebulous idea. (I still haven't read the whole game)

Post 203 - Menel: And I'm still waiting to hear what you found regarding Nogrod, Fea, as are all of us. If you found something suspicious, I think everyone deserves to hear it.

Post 206 - Boro: Who said what was surmised about Nogrod, between them, was something suspicious?

Post 213 - Opera Ghost: Boro- what do you think about all these Nog votes? I'm extremely surprised.

Do you think that tomorrow we should probably vote for someone who voted for him? Especially if he ends up lynched?

Post 218 - Sally: I do hate a double lynch. Lesser (or greater, in this case, I hope) of two evils must prevail, because if we're wrong about one person we can handle that but if we're wrong about two people that could be....erm, well, bad, obviously.

Thus....

++Noggie

Post 219 - Wild Man: Wild Man not like Noggie-votes. Nogrod always like this, no? As Nogrod useful, Wild Man exhort you: vote Fea-Menel-Mac.

Post 220 - Boro: Depends upon if this turns out how I think it will, I will say I don't want Nog lynched today. Don't forget about retractables.

Post 221 - Agan: On the one hand I wouldn't want to vote Mac because it's so long since he last played, but on the other hand he's a bit more suspicious than Nog... Garr I can't decide. I don't want to vote either of them.

Post 223 - Ilya: I can't shake the feeling, though, and it's not fair to Gollum, who did post more than once a day, or Nog or Menel who're on my radar because other people put them there.

Post 225 - Sally: Forgot to say that Menel's last post makes me feel a tad better about him, which is why I tipped the scale toward Noggie. Besides, I'd like to see more from Menel before I/we kill him.

Post 228 - Agan: Heck

++Nog

Post 232 - Opera Ghost: Okay, yes, Nog might be the Cobbler. But so might I. And on Day 1? Lynch? What a risk.

Post 233 - Sally: I'm fine with either one, frankly, and there's no way I want a double.

Ack! Rush!

--Noggie

++Menel

End Page 6. End Day 1.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 01:46 PM

Goin' back to Page 3.

Post 94 - Mac: Nogrod - feels innocent, which is alarming.

Post 107 - Brinn: Nogrod : Already starting to go at it with Gwath. Typical. About the whole double lynch thing...I think at this point it's more likely we would end up lynching two innocents than any critics.

Post 109 - Cailin: It is also clear that I shall win this competition. Great range is all well and good, but being two-gendered is well… operatic! Still, best eliminate:

++NOGROD

Because the extent of his indecisiveness could lead to problems later on.

Post 113 - Wild Man: Nogrod - Accuse Gwath on poor grounds. But Wild Man feel this just to make discussion. Wild Man inclide to think Nogrod innocent.

Post 116 - Fea: Nogrod - Whether evil or not, he tends to provide a voice of reason (except when he's a desperate wolf and his voice of reason starts to seriously lack any semblance of said reason).

Post 119 - Nogrod: So it seems that Boro and tp are at it again. Or at least they're giving out the impression they are at it again. Jolly good. I'd leave them to try and survive a few Nights first eg. I'm not willing to lynch either of them at least without some very serious arguments.

As well I'd be keen to see all those returning to the game for some time in at least a few Days with the same reservations: a believable case makes me chnge my mind.

Blah, I need to vote in about an hour so I'll jump back and see if there's anything that could help.

End Page 3.

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 01:56 PM

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

The phantom is immortal now and we have to end...*ahem* be enriched by him til the end? Oh... joy... :p

I have to apologise to Menel. Had I had more time and would have read your later responses to my vote, I would have retracted. You sounded very innocent there. Sorry.

To business.

I don't like his vote for Menel. Looks like an easy way out to slide by the day.

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?

Yesterday's voting:

Cailineomer's vote for Nogrod, while somewhat suspicious taken by itself, is probably not a critical one. Why would a critic want to get into trouble with one of the more persuading singers when there was not even an indication then that said singer will be eliminated? It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.
Gwath's vote for Nogrod and Fea's vote for Menel don't smell nice. Both are pushing a bandwaggon.
Brinniel's vote for Nogrod I don't like either. She pushes the bandwaggon with very little reason. Then again, a critic would have known that a Day1-lynching of Nogrod would have attracted interest, so would a critic not rather not have positioned herself in such a spot in a bandwaggon? Hmm..
What to do with Sally's vote? Of course every critic would love to see Nogrod lynched so early, but so much that they would risk their own neck for it by putting a vote in such a prominent space? Hardly. Her retraction looks innocent.
Boro's retraction for Menel is to save Nogrod, of course, but considering that he voted me before mostly because I voted Menel, it's a bit eyebrow-raising. Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?
Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.
Wild man's vote for Menel is not suspicious either. He stated he liked to save Nogrod before.
I'll have a look at the other votes later if I think it might enlighten something.

An analysis of the attempted killing of the phantom would be interesting, but I'm sure tp can do that better than I. I'll leave that burden to him.

This good new make up for last night double-lynch, think Wild Man.Is it? While we still have tp's input, we are still down one in numbers and innocent votes. Painting situation better than situation is be suspicious behaviour, wild man.

I did the same to Mac after he showed he had reason to trust me. I assumed he had spotted the Lover thing, but warned him that, though he was right about me, he may have something slightly wrong.

It was something completely different. Some of your points on the roles seemed so off to me that I thought you were an innocent trying to confuse the critics. ;)

Ilya

01-08-2009, 01:58 PM

I, ah, might skip entirely recapping Page 1, at least for now. Data < Lunch. Begin Page 2.

Post 41 - Nogrod: Says who? I mean the "actually playing" part... Are we now a bit too eager to show up our qualities as a decent player who has as his goal the elimination of the critics so that everyone could sing as bad as they wished? Have you Gwath started actually playing and what is your game?

Nice manouvres Fea! I did enjoy them. But then again that's the very same with everyone and everytime. The trick is to know when it's option b) rather than option a). And yes, one can get mad trying to come to a fair consideration about these...

Post 50 - Gwath:
"Says who?"
Why, Napoleon, of course, in his Art of Werewolf (Maxim 13, if you're curious).

I said it. If the purpose of a particular post is to perplex upon inspection, I don't see the point in trying to analyze it. Why give the poster that satisfaction? This is my opinion.

"Are we now a bit too eager to show up our qualities as a decent player who has as his goal the elimination of the critics so that everyone could sing as bad as they wished?"
An ironic question, and one which does not follow very closely from the post in view. Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good. Nice try.

"Have you Gwath started actually playing and what is your game?"
If I had a "game" (I suppose you mean "strategy"), I certainly wouldn't tell you about it.

Post 51 - Nogrod: "Talk of triple-lynching can be risky, even as a joke. Thankfully, we wraiths lack a sense of humor."
Making the point that a triple lynch (anyway we only can make a double-lynch) might be risky... hmmm... to whom at this point? For the critics themselves I think... one lynch and we probably end up with a fine and innocent singer toDay; a double lynch... the odds to bring down a critic get better... or at least the critics should have more to fear at this early hour if that option is open.

Anyway: confessedly lacking a sense of humour? A well known trait of music-critics over the whole wide world. Artists have fun, critics are grumpy, everyone knows that.

"An ironic question, and one which does not follow very closely from the post in view. Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good. Nice try."
Accusing? Aren't we a wee bit touchy now?
*not an accusation, a question...*

Post 55 - Gwath: The two are by no means mutually exclusive. A question can be used to state one's opinion quite as easily as any other form of sentence, and your question had distinct accusatory overtones. Whether or not I was being touchy is a matter of perspective, however, and you can't please everyone.

End Page 2. Actually, that wasn't so bad. I'll go ahead and do the first page as well.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 02:08 PM

Begin Page 1

Post 18 - Nogrod: You have totally misunderstood that ruling dear contralto. It is of course that we divo's need to protect our voice a half an hour before going to bed and so she has made that ruling to protect my voice but at the same time letting me off the hook from indecent questionnaires as to why I'm voting that early throughout the game...

Post 20 - Agan: Nog is apparently the divo.;)

Post 21 - Nogrod: Nice list Aganzir. I agree with it at this moment 100%.

Post 24 - Fea: "Nog is apparently the divo."
Yes, I was going to accuse him of much the same.

Post 31 - Opera Ghost: Nogrod- He will help me catch the Critics.

End Page 1. Will post my thoughts on all this in a bit, but right now there's a $5 Footlong calling to me.

Aganzir

01-08-2009, 02:26 PM

Sorry guys. I thought I was helping to prevent a double lynch. However I'm not entirely displeased with what has happened thus far (at least the phantom thing was rather funny), besides I would probably have continued to suspect Nog today anyway. However I have a harder time trying to see why Menel was killed. Apparently to save Nog from the gallows yes, but why was he so suspicious in the first place?

I don't know if this was an early attempt to save critic-sally, but there were lots of unjustified attached "suspicions" that grew around Nogrod.
Don't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good. What's the sense in accusing someone of something they always do, at least this early?

I'm wondering how many caught Nog's Divo comment. And then his joking confirmation to Agan.
I did but it was a thing I didn't take very seriously. Divo-Nog could say it, innocent Nog could say it, critic-Nog could say it.

I've noticed Lari's eagerness to agree on suspicions but I wouldn't lynch her because of it (at least yet) because she's new.

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.
Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*
The above comment reminds me of his I-told-you attitude (as in Other Minds and Hands, erm, almost two years ago when Boro I think almost got lynched all of a sudden - I don't remember the details; or in Scouring of the Shire vol.2 when people lynched an innocent probably Menel or Might). I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

edit: xed with Ilya

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 02:28 PM

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?~Mac
It was an early vote and you said he was playing careful. It looks like one of those generic suspicions you can apply to just about anyone (well I guess minus the phantom :rolleyes: )

Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?
I did, sally.

Regarding what you said about Cailin:
It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.
Or one that has worked perfectly. With big risk you have a chance of a big reward, of course it can blow up in your face, but my question is why is Cailin's vote risky for a critic? It's the first vote, very early, and Nogrod is usually a safe choice early, as anyone may figure he's not typically a day 1 choice.

The bigger question is, what made Nog a Day 1 choice this time?

Ilya, while it is much appreciated all the research and re-posting of stuff, it makes our job a lot easier, you dear, are frightening me. It reminds me of what Brinn did not to long ago, and was extremely successful in leading her to a wolf victory.

Edit: crossed with Agan

Brinniel

01-08-2009, 03:17 PM

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game. :rolleyes:

And if he doesn't count towards the tally, then it's really like he was killed...the only difference is that while the dead usually can't talk, he can. So when it comes down to numbers, we still had a loss last Night...am I right?

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel? He often gets lynched early and I'm irritated to see it happen again. The sudden turn-around on him which resulted in a double lynch is just as suspicious. Especially these players who seemed to be so certain of Noggie's innocence, they contributed to Menel's lynching (some even retracting). And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time. I know how it feels to die early several games in a row, and I don't think it was fair at all for Menel to be lynched so early.

Btw, what's so strange about Nogrod getting lynched on Day 1? It happened in Shasta's game and he was a werewolf. It happened in tp's game and he was a werewolf. So really if you go by record, lynching him on Day 1 seemed like a pretty good idea at the time...

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 03:25 PM

Don't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good.~Agan
Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.

I'm not sure what to make of sally's retract at the end. Eventhough it didn't count, there is a look of innocence as it does look like an attempt to break a double lynch. Her retract post also looks like a rush to make it before the deadline. However, it didn't make the deadline, and it could just be a critic-sally making it look like a failed attempt to prevent a double lynch. In anyway this is hard to tell, we're talking about a matter of seconds here.

the guy who be short

01-08-2009, 03:28 PM

Wild Man analyse vote record:

Cailineomer - Vote Nogrod meta-reason. Not especially suspect, but not especially un-suspect.

Mac - Vote Menel. Not especially suspicious, Wild Man think. Certainly, Wild Man share suspicion of Menel. At time, no suspect anyone else, but latest post seem wise, so Wild Man not extremely wary.

Gwath - Vote Nogrod. Had spat before. But with retrospect, look very defensive against Nogrod. Also, no suspect anyone (except Nog, Lari, late on). Speak much, say little. Then suspect Lari for she speak much, say little! Wild Man suspicious.

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.

Brinniel - Early on, Brinn say: no suspect anyone. Then Brinn say, consider Nog, Sally or Mac, not want spread vote. Then say, want hear more from Mac, Sally say little. Vote for Nog on "feeling". Not very good.

More vote analysis to come.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 03:29 PM

Boro, ha, yeah, about half-way through the thing, I thought, "Oh gosh, this is exactly what Brinn did." Still, I'm not gonna try to not be helpful because of the way it looks. Tempering what I do to how others percieve me is what made me the target of suspicion in Fea's game.

It was selfish analysis, too. I needed it because I wasn't paying much attention to much of anyone on Day 1. Now, I have a clearer picture and even some suspicions.

Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do. Also, I feel like there was at least one critical hand in the all the Nogrod stuff I read and the other three were nowhere near that, and all of them make quite a deal of sense anyway.

The people who've tripped my radar are Sally, Agan, Lariren, Strongbow, and Cailin, and yes, I know there are only three critics so I'm wrong on at least two counts. The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it. Lariren was just kinda agreeing and she eventually went in a different direction, but Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing. Bowie's points still strike me as odd, and I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing, while Cailin's post was just...strange. Haven't played with her before, so she's the one I suspect the least, and it kinda reminded me of Diamond's one weird post in Fea's last game anyway.

EDIT: Brinn, yes, we did take a hit in the tally, even if TP's still around to "help." I also would be happy to chronicle all of Menel's stuff, but I was kinda hoping someone else might do that.

the guy who be short

01-08-2009, 03:41 PM

Addendum: Brinn's last post make Wild Man feel she more innocent - it seem innocent reaction.

Kath - Originally, Wild Man think Kath quiet, therefore maybe lynch Kath. However, now that she make word, Wild Man think her word wise.

Boro - No reason to suspect. Feel innocent.

Wild Man tire now. Perhaps look at Sally, Ilya, Aganzir in little while.

Aganzir

01-08-2009, 03:54 PM

And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time.
Totally agreed. I also share your concern about everyone concentrating just on Nog's lynching.

Really? I didn't think so, I mean granted it was nothing spectacular. But I never know what some of you expect. We have to start somewhere, someone's got to go, and anything Nog said about sally, was better than what sally said herself.
You're right but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't make sense to accuse someone of what they always do and that's why I found Nog's point against her weird.

Agan knows better, and it was her vote at the last minute that sealed the double-lynch, even if it was only a mistake of timing.
Technically it was tgwbs's retraction, not my vote, but well. In a way it was a mistake of timing - my fault for voting so late, but rather it was because I had no idea how many votes everyone had.

I think killing Phantom is something he'd enjoy doing
Why?

Strongbow

01-08-2009, 04:10 PM

Ok: Cobbler time. The reason I asserted that the Cobbler was a Day 2 problem was because there is more time for the Cobbler to reveal himself. In my experience the Cobbler is an artful dodger, especially when combined with a spy role. The probability that we lynch Walter Plinge toDay is fairly low, and while our critic catching capabilities are near as low, it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.

Critics, however, are a priority to me.

Anyhow, I think that our Resident Ghost's death is striking. Who would want to kill someone so entertaining and good so early in the game?

My lack of voting was due to class. I wasn't aware that the DL had been pushed, or else I would have rushed to my next class to vote. Grrr...I'll be able to vote this Day coming.

Cailín

01-08-2009, 04:34 PM

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. ;) My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). :p This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

Lariren Shadow

01-08-2009, 04:48 PM

I'm going to fully admit here that this is slightly defensive(if only to prove my point):
I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.

Plus, as its been said many times, I'm new. I don't know a lot of the history that goes with the game. I like a lot, don't get me wrong, but this whole knowing to vote for who on which day isn't something I've been through. I'm just trying to feel around and post.

And, even though its very far back, I did pick up on the whole divo quote but I assumed it was along the lines of Fea's post no one listened to either.

Now I need to read more and try to come up with more theories, but in the mean time I have to go to night class bio.

satansaloser2005

01-08-2009, 04:52 PM

*sees the night kill, or lack thereof, sort of, kind of, and stuff*

Oh. My. Giddy. Aunt. Yes please!!!!!

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. ;))

Excuse me, I have to go bash my face against a brick wall for an hour due to the trainwreck that was yesterDay's voting. Feel free to relieve me of my position in the game while I'm gone.

(Off to reread the Day now, to see what I can see)

Kath

01-08-2009, 05:01 PM

I'm actually heading for bed so I'm not going to post properly until tomorrow (RL) but I just wanted to pop in quickly with a couple of things. Firstly to complain about the fact that someone finally had the guts to kill off phantom first Night and it didn't succeed! I know he's a help to have around when innocent but surely this is just going to make his ego even bigger? :rolleyes:

I haven't said much new because by the time I think of something three posts down someone has already said. While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly.
I'm completely with you on that one Lariren!

Anyway, see you in a few hours.

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 05:06 PM

Short comment now. More to say later.

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.
....
I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?

*nod of approval*

the phantom

01-08-2009, 05:09 PM

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.
Whatever. You know you love me. ;)
Fea, Boro, TGWBS, and Kath all feel good to me. Fea because she went blow for blow with TP in his ploy, and I don't think that's something a critic would do.
Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).

Anyway, some thoughts on the voting.

If Sally is a Critic, Gwath doesn't look great.

If Mac is, then Brin doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Sally doesn't look great.

If Mac or Ilya is, then Kath looks good.

Ilya's vote was at a time when it could've mattered, but it didn't. Instead it was for a brand new candidate.

Agan and TGWBS forged the tie, but neither realized that they were doing so.

Sally could have saved the day, but was too late. Should we hold that against her?

Gwath was the first to cast a second vote for someone. Fea and Boro pushed two others into a tie for the early lead. And looking back we can see that two of the three have already been proven innocent. Kath elevated the fourth person to multi-vote status. Brin and Sally padded Nog's lead.

And then there was the Menel comeback- me, Boro (-Mac, +Menel), TGWBS (-Fea, +Menel), and Sally late (-Nog, +Menel).

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:14 PM

Hey everybody: Is it another 48 hour day? Or was that a one-time thing?

Lariren: Hey, you don't have to apologize for being defensive. You've got the right to explain your thought process and you're totally right about posting in agreement and all that.

The Wild Man brought up some valid points about Brinn, too, which really makes me want to do a huge Menel recap. Unless anyone says they mind, I'm gonna clog the thread again.

Agan - It's just my read on him. Bowie's doesn't seem intimidated by more experienced players, and since TP wasn't a huge subject of discussion on Day 1, aside from his cryptic playing with Fea, it might've seemed like as good a time as any to remove the threat. That said, Bowie's post today helped me understand his logic, and I understand his reason for not voting, so I feel slightly better about both him and Lariren now that I've read more of them. Cailin still not so much.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:19 PM

Give Fea some credit. She's a tricksy back-stabber if I ever saw one. She would totally play along with a ploy and then kill me. Especially if she thought the ploy was real. Or a cover for a gifted (Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover).
*shakes head* Seer pretending to be the Divo pretending to be a Lover. That right there is why the two of you are far better players than I.

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 05:23 PM

(But now there's no way to shut Phantom up. Oh, bugger. )~sally
We could attempt to lynch his ghost - I mean theoretically he's already dead and we wouldn't be losing another innocent body - just a loud uncorporeal voice. We'd have to devise another way of course, I've never heard of a lynched ghost before - we could try garlic? Wait, wrong thing. :p

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.~tgwbs
I disagree, the only odd thing I've found about Fea is she hasn't been calling for my death. That's rather unusual, but other than that she's been Fea like...speaks in riddles, impossible to follow, seems to take an unnatural pleasure in chaos, but overall very Fea. I'm waiting on one more thing from her, if I see it, I would bet she's innocent, if not - well you can guess.

While I can go along agreeing with everyone it seems rather silly. Even though people think I do it anyway.~Lariren
Keep on keepin on, as a wise man liked to say. If you agree with something, agree with it, that doesn't make it silly. Makes it rather redundant. The more ideas said, the more pressure that is placed on someone and that can prove their innocence, or their wolvery. (Note: this is 100% biased because I like chatter - and lots of it)

Edit: xed since tp

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:27 PM

Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more!

Begin Page 1

Post 32 - Menel: I'm here, though I don't have a whole lot to say. I wouldn't vote out the tricksy ones, devious though they may be. And our good phantom hasn't really said much yet, so there's nothing to go on for him either.

Post 36 - Agan: Hi Menel. What about voting you out so I can get all the baddie roles?

Post 37 - Wild Man: Menel - Why not drive out tricksy headache-maker? Someone must die. We know not who is critic. Ergo, it best to kill tricksy folk. They as likely as anyone to be critic, but if not, at least townsfolk remove headache. Townsfolk then can think clear.

Post 40 - Menel: Oh, hello Aganzir.

Come now, who between us would be the best baddie anyhow, a human from the White City or someone who can drive people to mass panic by screeching?

And as for the guy who be tarzan, I suggest he take a bath. But to be honest, yes, some of the crazies could stand to be more helpful. Talk of triple-lynching can be risky, even as a joke. Thankfully, we wraiths lack a sense of humor.

End Page 1.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:34 PM

Begin Page 2

Post 51 - Nogrod: Making the point that a triple lynch (anyway we only can make a double-lynch) might be risky... hmmm... to whom at this point? For the critics themselves I think... one lynch and we probably end up with a fine and innocent singer toDay; a double lynch... the odds to bring down a critic get better... or at least the critics should have more to fear at this early hour if that option is open.

Anyway: confessedly lacking a sense of humour? A well known trait of music-critics over the whole wide world. Artists have fun, critics are grumpy, everyone knows that.

Post 62 - Agan to Menel: See my avatar. He's my pet and he sings better than you.

Post 64 - Menel: I agree with the phantom about the cobbler being dangerous. We really need to get him early before he dreams of one of us. Of course, it is also possible that the phantom himself is the cobbler trying to divert attention off of himself by his aggressive stance, so I don't think we can rule anyone out there.

Post 68 - Bowie: This early? I'm not so certain. I don't think that the phantom would play that...strangely right out of the gate.

Cobbler-sneak is a problem, but I don't think that the cobbler-sneak is a Day 1 problem. I think it's a Day 2 problem. And then we kill them.

Post 73 - Wild Man: Wild Man feel phantom speaks logic. But phantom indeed tricksy. Menel correct, perhaps phantom cobbler. But Wild Man believe not.

Post 74 - Opera Ghost: Of course I'm the Cobbler. Mwu ha ha!

End Page 2.

the guy who be short

01-08-2009, 05:37 PM

Sally - Voice no suspicion to start. Then, once Nog and Menel have 2 vote each, she suddenly say they both look suspicious! Seem like she want fuel bandwagon. Vote Nog despite suspect Menel more. However, claim this to avoid double lynch. Also, final attempt retraction to avoid double lynch. This make her seem more innocent. Overall, Wild Man neutral toward her.

Ilya - Throwaway vote in crucial position. This only mildly concerning.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote? With retrospect, Wild Man no convince by her suspicion of Mac, on feeling. Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour! Overall, Wild Man worried.

Lariren - Wild Man see little reason to suspect.

Therefore Wild Man form following continuum, where inter-star line represent complete neutral:

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
***************
Lariren-Shastanis-Strongbow-Gollum
***************
Ilya-Mac-Cailineomer
Sally
Gwath
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

Now Wild Man sleep.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:44 PM

Begin Page 3

Post 85 - Ilya: Menel: One should never risk one's whole fortune unless supported by one's entire forces.

Post 91 - Mac: I don't trust Menel and Rikae told me to that Aganzir is maybe not trustworthy.

Post 92 - Menel: So you don't trust me, Mac? Understandable, considering it's Day One and the bad guys are tough to find, but is there anything in particular that you found odd?

Post 94 - Mac: Menel - too careful and thus suspicious.

Post 107 - Brinn: Menel: I feel pretty good about what he's said so far.

Post 112 - Mac: I have to say I'm a tad disappointed at the meager number of auditions that took place while I was asleep, and more than a tad disappointed at their meager content. I was hoping to see a little bit clearer this morning, but that is not the case. With nothing better to go after, I will probably vote Menel.

Post 113 - Wild Man: Menel - Too careful. Wild Man wary of him. Cast Cobbler suspicion on phantom, perhaps he want deflect attention?

Post 116 - Fea: Meneltarmacil - I don't know.

Post 117 - Mac: No wiser, but in more of a hurry:

++Meneltarmacil

Post 118 - Boro: This might sound hypocritical, but whatever, as far as Menel's carefulness - that doesn't make him look suspicious. Every single time I get a funny feeling early on about Menel, precisely because he is careful. But the one time Menel was a wolf, he was a bit more defensive. His two statements about having no humor because he's a Nazgul and:
"Oh, and don't suspect me based on the fact that I'm a Nazgul. I just happened to find this ring in a Cracker Jack box. How was I supposed to know it was one of the Nine?"
This just doesn't look like a Menel of any evil kind (critic or cobbler). He's cleared for today.

End Page 3.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:50 PM

Begin Page 4 with Matt Nathanson stuck in my head.

Post 124 - Nogrod: From Menel I get quite innocent vibes. Or at least he plays like he plays and that has sent him to the gallows so many times ealy on just showing him innocent. So I wouldn't like to continue that tradition.

Post 127 - Wild Man: Menel. Post 32 - Say no lynch the tricksies. No why. Post 92 - Ask Mac why Mac find Menel suspicious. Nazgul banter. Menel, one vote, but Wild Man less willing to vote.

Post 133 - Agan: Menel. I'm not that worried but I'm not sure enough to label him as innocent either.

Post 136 - Lariren: Meneltarmacil – I’m suspicious about. For no other real reason than am.

End Page 4.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 05:58 PM

Begin Page 5.

Post 167 - Brinn: Who I won't vote for:

Meneltarmacil: would rather not see him Day One lynched...he gets lynched early too often

Post 170 - Menel: To be completely honest, I have no idea who to vote for. Phantom seems innocent enough, though I wouldn't automatically trust him just because he's the phantom.

Boro hasn't shown any warning signs either.

Macalaure has some kind of odd suspicion of me. Could be innocent Day One behavior, but I still don't like it.

The wild man who be short is being helpful enough, and I like his caveman-speak enough that I'll let him go for now.

He has a good point about Fea, who seems to be going off-topic a lot, speaking in code, and being tricksy as he calls it.

I'm leaning a little towards either Fea or Mac, but not that strongly.

Post 175 - Boro: Mac doesn't appear like he will be back, I don't like his vote for Menel. Looks like an easy way out to slide by the day.

Post 177 - Menel: So just what is this thing with Nogrod, anyhow? I don't think everyone but Fea and the phantom should be kept out of the loop on this.

Post 187 - Menel: Well, phantom and Fea's secrecy is disturbing, but I think I'll let it go for now and see what comes of it later.

++Macalaure

Post 188 - Fea: In the mean time,

++MENEL

Because there's nobody else I'd rather lynch, so process of elimination dictates...

Post 191 - Agan: I rather didn't lynch Menel today because I don't find him very suspicious. I think I'm just going to vote Nog. Or Mac.

Post 193 - Sally on Menel: So of all his 'suspects' (or lack thereof), he votes Mac because Mac suspects him? I lied. Menel does look a bit fishy now. I mean, I may not be happy that people suspect me, but them suspecting me doesn't necessarily make them guilty. Seems much more like a self-preservation tactic than anything else.

I suppose my first three choices are Menel, Nog, and Mac, semi in that order.

Post 197 - Kath: No idea: Menel

End Page 5.

Ilya

01-08-2009, 06:06 PM

Cuz I would be heavenly, if baby you just rescue me now...

Begin Page 6.

Post 203 - Menel: Well, I really didn't have much to go on about who to vote for, but it was mainly the fact that he didn't expalin much about why he suspected me when I asked him about it that troubled me.

And I'm still waiting to hear what you found regarding Nogrod, Fea, as are all of us. If you found something suspicious, I think everyone deserves to hear it.

Post 206 - Boro to Menel: Who said what was surmised about Nogrod, between them, was something suspicious?

Post 219 - Wild Man: As Nogrod useful, Wild Man exhort you: vote Fea-Menel-Mac.

Post 223 - Ilya: I can't shake the feeling, though, and it's not fair to Gollum, who did post more than once a day, or Nog or Menel who're on my radar because other people put them there.

Post 224 - Opera Ghost: Are we seriously lynching Nog on Day 1?

++Menel

Post 225 - Sally: Forgot to say that Menel's last post makes me feel a tad better about him, which is why I tipped the scale toward Noggie. Besides, I'd like to see more from Menel before I/we kill him.

Post 227 - Boro: --Mac

++Menel

This is no flippant move so if Mith thinks about a mod-fire I would like her to wait for my explanation tomorrow.

Post 230 - Wild Man: --Fea

++Menel

Post 232 - Sally: I'm fine with either one, frankly, and there's no way I want a double.

Ack! Rush!

--Noggie

++Menel

End Page 6.

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 06:33 PM

Sally - not a critic, I think
Lari - pleasant addition to ww, not suspicious
Fea - suspicious vote yesterday, made headache yesterday, but I'll let her be for now, because I think tp should be able to figure her out before the end
Ilya - too - many - quotes
Brinn - her posts look innocent and helpful, but her vote is suspicious
Kath - same as Brinn, minus the suspicious vote
Aganzir - seems innocent to me
Gwath - suspicious: I need to have another look at him, but right now I think he might come out as my prime suspect for toDay
Shasta - escaped my attention so far
Bowie - escaped my attention, too
Gollum - escaped my attention, too, darnit
tgwbs - I was a bit suspicious of him before, but what he posted toDay so far looks innocent
Boro - I buy his explanation from earlier, so he's off my hook for now
Cailineomer - leaning innocent

This post is mostly for myself to see where I stand and who I need to look at closer. That's what I will do now.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-08-2009, 07:20 PM

So ish5 turned into ish8, sorry. I was with my students, then realized I was late for a meeting, then realized I had paperwork that needed to go through, then needed dinner before Bio... :rolleyes: But I'm out of Bio an hour early, so here goes:

Fea/Phantom. Please explain post 152 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580066&postcount=152) and onward discussion, now Noggie, alas, dead.

Okay.

I believe Fea was asking if I had noticed that Nog had called himself a Divo. I did, and I tried to encourage the idea later ("He'll show you lot how to sing").

Yes. I saw the Divo thing, then the phantom kept making these hints about Nog, and basically what I intended was two fold:

1) I wanted to subtly discern if the phantom knew something, or if he noticed something.

If he knew something, then I wanted to know if he wanted me to keep quiet about it, or if he wanted me to find a way to extricate Noggin, who I was reasonably certain by that point was quite innocent.

If, however, the phantom had merely noticed something (as in, wasn't the Seer, but had picked up on something I thought I'd caught too), I wanted to get his opinion as to whether or not he agreed with my reaction that Nog was innocent.

I did not, however, at any point want to say "Hey OG, are you the Seer? If so, you dreamed of Nogrod, right? If not, from one ordo to another, do you agree with my assessment that he's trustworthy?" Because that would have put everyone I was concerned/curious about at risk.

Hence the veiled questions toward who I thought had a bit more special of a role ("For the first time ever I'm afraid of the cobbler") than others.

I assume the Fea/Opera Ghost exchange was about TP's Lovers ploy?

Actually, I totally missed the Lovers thing. I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 07:46 PM

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?~Brinn
Or how about just both? You and whoever else can look through the Menel voters, and I with whoever else can look through the Nogrod voters.

We have a lot of info before us, compliments of Ilya.

Lariren Shadow

01-08-2009, 08:11 PM

and I with whoever else can look through the Nogrod voters.

I can make myself useful if you like!

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 08:23 PM

Second look at Gwathagor: even though he's sufficiently entertaining, apart from some suspicion against Nogrod since Nogrod criticised him, and one comment on Lariren, Gwath has failed to contribute anything of substance to our cause. Wouldn't a critic try to keep a more helpful face? What is he up to?

Shasta gave very little input yesterday and has yet to appear today. I'm interested in what he has to say.

Last Gollum posted, he had not yet caught up with the game. Let's hope he will catch up today.

Strongbow... I don't know what think of him, that's all I can say.

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 08:40 PM

Ok, so who would want to target the phantom on Day 1.

Actually, I totally missed the Lovers thing. I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.~Fea
I missed the lovers thing too, and now it makes sense why he said no Mac and no sally yesterday. But what made you think seer? I didn't see anything to suggest it. I would imagine if tp was a seer, he'd be out in the open, but he wouldn't make himself a target at night. Also, I doubt he'd draw that much attention about the cobbler. At least not the cobbler of this opera, who would be able to oust him to the wolves. That's my guess about it, I guess we should wait on tp though.

Sally - I've seen sally speak out strongly against tp being an early kill choice. She seems to generally enjoy keeping him around, at least for a couple days. The choice doesn't fit her. I also want to wait to hear some more from sally. I don't think her uncounted late vote should be a reason of suspicion, we're talking about missing the vote by a matter of seconds, and her last post you can tell she was in a rush. Her original vote for Nog, and then retract for Menel, should be looked into.

Lariren - well she's admitted to being completely terrified of him? :p Oh ok, but that's pretty weak. I have no guess as to what her thought process/style is yet.

Fea - she played a long with him yesterday, I forget who said it (tp maybe?) but she's perfectly capable of acting sweet and loving and then turning around, killing you at night. Similar to sally though, she just generally seems to like having tp around for a little while. I also ask, why not me last night (not to sound me-centered)? Fea was buttering me up as well.

Ilya - I'm sensing a theme here, because Ilya's even lamented about tp not being in villages before. Would she want to get rid of tp early?

Brinn - Somehow I don't see Brinn missing tp all that much, day 1 or day 5, wouldn't matter. Brinn's overall posting today makes me think she's innocent, but I could see this being a Brinn kill.

Kath - Same for Kath, I think she relishes for the chance to have killing power. She seemed to take delight in being able to get rid of me and Nogrod early, in our last stint, and I would expect the same if she had a chance of tp. I know when I have the power to kill, I look to get rid of Kath early, and now I sense the feeling is mutual. :p

Agan - Doesn't make sense as an Agan target early on. Unless tp was deemed a threat, but that could be said for anyone here. I haven't looked into Agan's posts too much yet, which is unusual as she usually makes a mark in me early. Her comment about laziness looks innocent, I can't picture Agan as a lazy wolf, but she hasn't been normal Agan. May I ask Agan, did your involvement in your last game wear you down a bit?

Gwath - Similar to Kath, his sig should explain it - that conniving, no good, yet brilliant werebear.

Shasta - The Shasta-tp fued seems to be well known. I can see tp being an early target for Shasta. But not for fueding reason, I picture Shasta to be far more calculating then getting rid of someone because of a fued. If Shasta is innocent, he'd want an innocent tp around, if a wolf, he'd want an innocent tp gone.

Strongbow - not sure about him. He's well read and got a great grasp on how people and things work. His cobbler post today looks earnest and honest, I don't have a grasp on him yet.

Macalaure - Kind of similar to Shasta, if a wolf, and if deemed a threat than I think he'd want tp gone fast. However, the way tp didn't want to see Mac (and sally for that matter) be lynched yesterday speaks towards Mac's innocence. Unless tp was targetted because the wolves thought he was the seer, but I'm not convinced that's why tp was targetted. Also, I'd imagine if Mac was a wolf, and believed someone to be the seer, he'd do a little more poking around to try to get the seer to let a hint slip.

Gollum - I have no idea about 'im.

tgwbs and Cailin - I put them together because for these two it's been so long since they've been here, I've forgotten a lot. Add on top of that, I could never get a good read on these two. See with tp, I expect ploys, traps, lots and lots of involvement, for good or bad I may be able to figure it out in a couple days. With Fea I expect chaos and plain out insanity. But for tgwbs and Cailin, I have no idea what you're going to get. The only way I've been able to spot a wolf Cailin was from the hunter's kill, and the only way I knew tgwbs was innocent was when he voted for himself.

That's what's running through my head, make of it what you will. There may not even be anything useful at all anyway. There are a couple variables that muddy it up. That is any critic would see tp as a threat, and thus know they would have to get rid of him sooner rather than later. How soon of would depend upon what they thought his role was...If they believed he was the seer they would want him gone right away, and with no Ranger in the way to stop it, they'd do it right away.

Edit: crossed with Lari and Mac

And Lari be my guest, I may not get to that until tomorrow - so there's your chance to get in something that hasn't already been posted 3 times :p

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 09:12 PM

Cailineomer -> Nogrod

I still think this is probably not a suspicious vote, but I don't have a good picture of the two due to lack of posts.

Mac -> Menel
Nogrod -> Sally
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1)

Gwath takes his first-best suspicion and gets the bandwaggon rolling with it. Careless.

Shasta -> tgwbs (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1)

Said he will explain today. Why do I have the feeling his explanation won't satisfy us...

Wild man -> Fea (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I don't really understand why the wild man narrowed himself down to Fea and Kath in the end.

Lari -> Ilya (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Solely based on her hunch. Ordos do that because they don't have any better. Critics do it to get away with a throwaway vote.

Menel -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)
Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)

I find her vote less suspicious than Gwath's one, but not by much.

Boro -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Fair reasoning, fair placement.

Brinn -> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

The one bad black ugly stain on her white vest.

Kath -> Ilya (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

Maybe the most innocent-looking vote of all, I'd say.

Sally -> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I highly doubt a critic would have made this vote. A very inconvenient spot in the Nogwaggon.

Ilya -> Strongbow (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

*goes to look for Ilya's picture in the encyclopedia next to "throwaway vote"*

phantom -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 3, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)
Boro -- Mac -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod.

Aganzir -> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

The placement looks rather evil, but she was after him for a longer time.

Wild man -- Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 5, Menel 5, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod II.

Sally -- Nogrod -> Menel

Not too little, but too late. Attempt to prevent double lynch. Pretty innocent.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-08-2009, 09:16 PM

So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys? Was it specified that dead-but-still-talking OG is on anybody's side but his own?

I ask this for the same reason I earlier had a question about the Cobbler (but still can't remember what it was. It was a question I ran across whilst rinsing shampoo from my hair before work this morning, but was too busy to ask before it ran off...).

Something...

Cobbler can't spy on himself...
Lover dies, second Lover gets to avenge (I'm having a bad sugar crash at the moment after a really, really long day, so forgive me if I screw this up, I'm just thinking aloud).
Lovers are on their own side, right?
Is one of the Lovers a critic? No, can't be... they're singers.
Are they typical Lovers in that they want to win? That is what Lovers do, yes? I ask this because you remember that the only Lovers game I did, I was an ish-Lover with special powers and rules, so I don't remember what they *should* be.

I still can't remember what my question was.

Oh. No, now I remember...

Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics? Because if the Cobbler knows her/his marks, than there's an extra player on the side of evil who knows that who s/he may or may not be voting for is ordo. Do you follow?

Macalaure

01-08-2009, 09:25 PM

Before I retire for today...

Suspicious
Fea
Gwath

Somewhat suspicious
Ilya
Brinn

Nowhere land
Shasta
Strongbow
Gollum
Cailineomer

Somewhat unsuspicious
Lari
Aganzir
tgwbs
Boro

Unsuspicious
Sally
Kath

Also, I'd imagine if Mac was a wolf, and believed someone to be the seer, he'd do a little more poking around to try to get the seer to let a hint slip.This is not really important now, but as a wolf, I would definitely not do that. I'd keep what I suspect for myself and get rid of the offender immediately at night without risking to have anybody suspect the same or, worse, leave a trail to myself by my behaviour. Only my fellows could convince me otherwise (which is why you lived past Day1 in our last village together ;) ).

Brinniel

01-08-2009, 10:14 PM

Or how about just both?
I have looked at both. But in the end, it's the Menel voters I find more suspicious. The votes against Noggie (heh, I almost wrote Noogie there) seem more reasonable to me. Of course, I know I'm biased because I voted Nogrod myself. But it's probably in the same way you as a Menel voter are biased.

So, the votes:

Cailin: ++Nogrod

First vote of the Day...her vote post was her only post, so I can't read from it. But it's not particularly suspicious.

Mac: ++Menel

Probably the least suspicious of the Menel voters. His suspicions of him came from the beginning. He voted so early, I doubt he was expecting any sort of bandwagon to occur.

Gwath: ++Nogrod

The two did have a brief scuffle earlier in the Day, so his vote doesn't exactly surprise me. On Day 1 when there aren't strong candidates, any sort of negative interaction with a player can result in a lynch vote.

Shasta: ++tgwbs

Came out of the blue, no explanation. I'd like to hear one when he shows up.

tgwbs: ++Fea

In the post before, he said he wouldn't vote her. And then he does. Why the Legate 180? (yes I'm still using that phrase :p )

Lariren: ++Ilya

Vote is based on a hunch. Not a strong reasoning, but common for Day One. I'm not worried about her vote.

Fea: ++Menel

Says there's no one else she wants to lynch. Not exactly strong reasoning.

Boro: ++Mac

Says earlier that he doesn't like Mac's vote for Menel.

Brinn: ++Nogrod

Best option of those who already received a vote, plus as I mentioned, Menel was being talked about and I didn't want him lynched. Honestly, I don't think I had great reason behind my vote and on Day 1; I never do. I often do get suspected for my vote and hey, I can't really blame you people...so I won't argue it too much.

Kath: ++Ilya

Seems to suspect her consistently, so nothing unusual jumps out to me.

Sally: ++Nogrod

Of the Nogrod votes, it is her's that looks most bandwaggonish, I think. What I find interesting is that she joins the "suspect Menel" bandwagon earlier and puts him highest on her lynch list, yet votes Nogrod. I can't help but wonder if she did this to make herself look good (by saying she's voting him to prevent a double lynch).

Ilya: ++Strongbow

Based on feeling, his posts seem abrasive. Her vote doesn't have strong reasoning, but that's not what worries me. She spread out the votes even more at a critical time which seems rather safe.

Boromir: --Mac/++Menel

Sort of indicates he'll make an explanation later, though he hasn't yet. I find it very interesting that he originally voted Mac for his Menel vote, then he changes his vote to Menel himself. No explanation, but my guess is to "save" Nogrod.

Aganzir: ++Nogrod

She suspected him all Day, so her vote is no surprise.

tgwbs: --Fea/++Menel

Another "save" Nogrod vote I'm guessing?

Sally: --Nogrod/++Menel

Tried and failed to prevent a double lynch from occurring. Looks pretty innocent, but then again she could be trying to make herself look good.

Non voters:

Strongbow: Seems to have missed the deadline, which happens.

Gollum: Was there at deadline, but chose not to vote due to lack of time. Choosing not to vote is one thing, and if it's a one-time thing I don't mind. But he abstained at a critical time when it looked like a double lynch was possible...I don't care who he would've voted for, he had the opportunity to prevent the double lynch and he didn't do anything.

About this whole "save Nogrod" thing...

It seems that came up when his whole divo comment was brought up via secret code talk. Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo? I don't think he'd be so obvious. It seems to me that this whole discussion which resulted in a switch of votes to Menel was just another ploy. Probably someone has intentions behind the ploy to misguide the wolves, but at the same time I think it's just as likely someone else has intentions to misguide everyone else. So the people who were involved:
tp
Fea
Boro
tgwbs
...Might be innocent or might be guilty. Whatever they are, I'll be watching them...with the exception of tp, for obvious reasons.

So based on votes, in order of suspicious to least suspicious:
tgwbs
Boro
Ilya
Sally
Fea
Gollum
Shasta
Kath
Lariren
Aganzir
Mac
Cailin
Gwath
Strongbow

Also, I must mention I did a double take on Cailin's post toDay because at first I thought it was Shasta which made me really confused. Apparently their avatars are very similar in colour. So apologies if I mix you two up again. But goodness, I should've figured it out immediately what with the Eomer references. :o

Btw, while I was writing this post I got interrupted by Grey's Anatomy, and on top that I have a headache. I can't even remember everything I wrote I wrote in this post or whether I'm forgetting something I meant to say. And I'm sure I'll x-post with many others, but I don't feel well enough to care..

the phantom

01-08-2009, 11:00 PM

A question for Sally...

Quite often you are such an English major. Correcting things, you know. If you type something wrong, you must fix it! You're very consistent about it.

So, if I spot a grammar or spelling mistake from you, should I assume it is intentional?

Answer choices-
A) Ummm... huh?
B) *wink*
So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys? Was it specified that dead-but-still-talking OG is on anybody's side but his own?
Yes, I'm on my own side in a way.

No, no- I won't be attempting to mislead you (lynch wrong). Not at all. I will give honest commentary on the songs you weave, but I shall refrain from all out attack or defense. I will interact though. I may even attempt to stir some things up.

Basically, you all can trust me. But I will not throw my weight around.

I will certainly post YouTube links (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHAauiJwwmU) though.

Touch me, trust me
Savour each sensation

Lariren Shadow

01-08-2009, 11:13 PM

So when "analysis" was mentioned this is what I did. Hope it helps shed light on anything, if not, then well that was a good amount of time gone. Forgive spelling errors, as Fea can attest to, I can't spell to save my life.

Page 1 Analysis:

The only thing that vaguely makes Nog a target for anyone is the phantom’s comment that Nog will help him catch the killers. This is of course if we don’t take the comment about Nog being the divo seriously(which not a lot of people did).

Page 2 Analysis:

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page. Which has been stated. And the idea of a double lynch being good(though not intended) was actually presented by Nog on this page.

Page 3 Analysis:

Most on this page think he’s innocent, which apparently is not a common occurrence. Cailin votes for Nog based on his indecisiveness, though not sure where that even took place during the game so far. Interesting vote choice actually. The Wild Man thought he was innocent even though Nog accused Gwath based on nothing. Fea makes a good point about him being the voice of reason as well.

Page 4 Analysis:

The phantom suspects that Nog, Fea, Mac, and Boro are up to something. But from what I’ve read there hasn’t been that much going on between them. Agan then comments on how the behavior of Nog is supicious based on the faulty logic of Gwath’s guilt and the logic of the double lynch.

It seems people latched onto Agan’s comments about those accusations. After that Shasta thinks of voting for Nog but doesn’t. Then the whole Fea and the phantom makes people look through the comments and try to find something. Not sure if this was to make Nog look guilty or not, but it was an interesting move by both.

In a side note, I made the spectacular post that says Nog is the seer on this page. Go me. Though I don't think this was by any means reasons for the votes for him(or at least that people mentioned).

Page 5 Analysis:

Pretty much the Fea and the phantom comments keep going with Boro asking about them then Menel saying that everyone else should not be left out. My comment about almost voting for Nog was based off of what Agan said about the Gwath accusations. That’s not to say I still don’t slightly suspect him anyway.

Brinn and Sally both think that Nog is off by this page. Though from reading it doesn’t really seem like he’s done much other than talk about who he thinks is guilty and comment/spare with Gwath. It is said that both Brinn and Sally think Nog is up to something based on his vote and his comments about Gwath. Kath also makes comments and actually didn’t think that what Nog said about Gwath was accusititory but also not sure about Nog’s switching from “voting the quiet one off” to “voting for Sally”. Should be noted Sally did say she was not just suspicious of Nog because he voted for her.

It seems Nog was always in the back of people’s minds as being “off’ or “not right”. By the end of page 5 only Cailin and Gwath had voted for him, for their own reasons(though not really sure what Calian's was).

Page 6 Analysis:

Brinn starts off the page with saying that out of all of those she could vote for Nog was giving off the most wolf vibes. Hence her vote, which, looking back at what she thought, didn’t seem out of the blue. Sally later then votes Nog to stop the double lynch. She was always suspicious of Nog so it seemed logical. Then tgwbs claims this is how Nog is all the time. Makes sense, if claim is true(I have no idea). He seems to have tried to stop the Nog lynching. Ilya than voices that Nog was put on her radar because of what other people have said. Pretty much this is what happened. People tended to side with Gwath about the accusations, then some(alright I did) listened to Agan’s comment about Nog and then people just started going with it.

As for the rest: Agan reasonably votes Nog. And the phantom made a remark about Nog possibly being the cobbler right after the minute turned so that made no sense.

What I have to gleamed from this information: Gwath and Nog began trying to incriminate the other. People began to side with Gwath because something in Nog’s language made him the more reasonable wolf. Agan picked up on that, Shasta did too(though didn't vote for Nog), and then people started voting for Nog with Cailin. Pretty much that vote is the only one that I can’t explain away. Everyone else’s made sense: Gwath would have voted on Nog because of the earlier comments, Brinn made a good case, as did Agan and Sally.

Everyone’s votes for Nog were backed up by what they thought and logical, except for Cailin’s, or is that normal for her/them?

X Posted: with Brinn and the phantom(is that the right comment?).

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 11:26 PM

Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics?~Fea
I can't see how the cobbler would be able to pass on info that xe didn't know xeself. (Did I use that properly?) That would make a giant continuity problem within the fabric of the performance.

Only my fellows could convince me otherwise (which is why you lived past Day1 in our last village together ;) ).~Mac
So, is that what happened again last night? ;)

Sort of indicates he'll make an explanation later, though he hasn't yet.~Brinn
Nobody asked...if and when someone does, I would ask that the say "please." :D

I did tell a lie, that well I should probably come clean with now since it's done and over. Not exactly a lie, more of an exaggeration, but I think it worked - or at least if I'm fooled I will have a clear conscience.

Mac's vote for Menel yesterday reminded me of his prior wolvery and denial about how he ever made a "case" against Brinn. But after stating Day 1 concerns I backed off for the rest of the game, only to be completely manhandled by him the rest of the time. I spent many a night beating myself up for never following up. So, whenever I next saw Mac make a move I thought suspicious, I promised myself I would go through with it. I did, and if he's running me around in circles again, at least I followed through this time, and can feel better about it. Basically, my vote for Mac had no good reason other than to make myself feel better for a prior mistake.

Edit: crossed with Lari

satansaloser2005

01-08-2009, 11:42 PM

Boromir88

01-08-2009, 11:53 PM

Beautiful analysis if I may say so myself Lari

The only thing I get is a growing animocity between Gwath and Nog from this page.

That is something I meant to check up on, after Ilya said:
The first three were the ones that really were instrumental on taking the Gwath/Nog opening sparring (which, when you look at it, is really nothing at all) and snowballing it.
The three that Ilya is referring to are Sally, Agan, and Lari.

I wanted to check up on it because there seems to be a significant contradiction. Ilya says it was blown out of proportions, others have made it out to be a high noon duel.

Which then got me thinking, I really miss the old fire pits, of intense, passionate battles. And that got me thinking, there's been a lot of tentativeness, I'm not remembering any significant sparring of singer vs. singer. Maybe, I'm partially to blame, because I'm slightly crazy and aggressive, but have been a little reserve.

Also, what's been off about Agan, is I know she's pretty feisty too when she gets going, so far I've gotten a laying back, commentary impression. I want a duel, who's up for one?

Those I will refuse to duel are tp, Lari, tgwbs, Mac, and Fea, either because I have no reason to or they could smoke me in a duel and I'd lose. I would welcome a challenge though from Agan, Brinn, or Shasta.

But, before that I ask you let me check up on this contradiction on whether there was much between the Gwath v. Nog yesterday, or if we had people who blew it out of proportion.

Edit: crossed with sally

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 12:20 AM

Alright, so the Gwath v. Nogrod yesterday. The actual sparring seemed to be an argument over semantics, thus an argument over meaningless crap. Nogrod asks a question, says it's not an accusation, Gwath says oh but it is, but there is a bit of them ole fire pits between the two that I do see.

So, my question for Ilya, is why did you try to down play it?

Agan, Lari, and sally do use that against Nog, in effect, "snowballing" this vague feeling of discomfort around Nogrod.

And my question for you three is why did you snowball it?

There Brinn is why I'm looking at the Nogrod voters. The origins of the Menel suspiciouns we pretty lousy, but at least there was reason there for some concern.

The origins of the Nogrod suspicion was based off some gut feeling of discomfort and Nog seems "off." Isn't that an even more generic reason, and I don't even care if it's Day 1, that's just baloney.

And finally my question for you Brinn:
One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel?
Why all the big deal about people who were making a big deal about the Nogrod voters?

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 12:28 AM

Mac -> Menel
[...]
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1)

Gwath takes his first-best suspicion and gets the bandwaggon rolling with it. Careless.

You know, Mac, my vote isn't much different from yours in terms of its context and consequences. Yes, Nogrod already had one vote, but Menel hadn't even been making any weird passive-aggressive attacks against you (as he had towards me). If anything, you had less reason than I for your vote.

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 12:43 AM

Alright, so the Gwath v. Nogrod yesterday. The actual sparring seemed to be an argument over semantics, thus an argument over meaningless crap.

I disagree. The argument, or the issue in question, from my perspective, had to do with what lay behindsemantics. It seemed to me that Nogrod had posed a question in an aggressive way and then tried to string me up for responding in kind. It was necessary to establish certain semantic facts in order to solve the question of whether he had indeed been accusing me, albeit in question form, and therefore whether my defensive response was merited. So, you see, while we were arguing semantics, that was not ultimately what was at stake.

The origins of the Nogrod suspicion was based off some gut feeling of discomfort and Nog seems "off." Isn't that an even more generic reason, and I don't even care if it's Day 1, that's just baloney.

It seemed to me that as the Day wore on, fewer and fewer people were actually reading the argument we'd had and that they were getting their idea of it from what other people had said about it. That's happened to me before, two games ago I think, where something I've said (or not said) gets talked about enough that it takes on a significance and meaning apart from and greater than the fact itself. I rather think that's what happened here. Enough people talked about our argument that it became a greater issue than it necessarily was by nature. That's my take on it, anyway.

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 12:57 AM

Ilya

01-09-2009, 01:21 AM

Gwath: Your take on other people's reaction to the argument rings true to me. I certainly didn't go back and read it until today, and, to answer Boro's question, the whole thing took up like 4 posts on the thread between Gwath and Nog before other people ran with it. The actually interaction between the two of them didn't seem that big to me, is probably a more accurate way to put. I didn't mean to downplay the authenticity of their argument.

Lariren is officially awesome, and that analysis was very good indeed.

Brinn: You say that my vote was based on feeling, but so was yours. I'm regretting it now, not only because Bowie seems less suspicious but because I hadn't realized Menel and Nog were running so close in the vote tally and I could have done something about that. Those last 15 minutes were one big klutz-fest.

Brief thoughts before I go to bed:
Mac has fingerprints in both lynch cases, and from what Boro's said I'm beginning to develop some unease.

I kinda don't get Wild Man's suspicion of Brinn. She stayed on point with her suspicions, and was consistent about not wanting Menel lynched. Today she's pushing for analysis of Menel's death, though I think it's legit because of how much early attention Nog got.

Agan might just be the victim of bad timing, and she certainly experienced enough to see what the nog/gwath argument was about, but something's telling me that kind of Day 1 argument does nothing but stir up discussion and nobody should really take the inciting incident that seriously. It seems like it's always ordos who want to start stuff, and the wolves who jump on it later. Does that make any sense?

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 01:31 AM

It seems like it's always ordos who want to start stuff, and the wolves who jump on it later. Does that make any sense?

I really think it just depends on the player, Ilya. There are so many differences in style and theory from player to player, that it's very difficult to make that kind of generalization.

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 04:25 AM

So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys? Was it specified that dead-but-still-talking OG is on anybody's side but his own?
I was wondering the same thing. Sure, tp can tell us he's on our side, but how do we know that for sure. At this point, tp's just playing for the fun of it, which means he can manipulate us in any way he wants, whether it's for good or bad. And that's exactly what I'd expect from him. While he cannot vote, we all know how much tp loves to tell us what to do. Since his alliances may shift on a Day to Day basis, all the more reason not to listen to him.

Nobody asked...if and when someone does, I would ask that the say "please."
Alright then, would you please give a detailed explanation as to why you retracted your vote and voted Menel instead? :Merisu: I already somewhat guessed you reasons, but I don't know for sure if that's accurate and I'd like to hear the explanation in your words.

Those I will refuse to duel are tp, Lari, tgwbs, Mac, and Fea, either because I have no reason to or they could smoke me in a duel and I'd lose. I would welcome a challenge though from Agan, Brinn, or Shasta.
Oh, while I'd love to duel you Boro, let us save it for another Day. While I do find you somewhat suspicious with your voting, some of your posts make me feel otherwise. In other words, you're not my lynching priority right now, so therefore I have no reason to duel you. And besides, I won't be here much longer toDay....

Why all the big deal about people who were making a big deal about the Nogrod voters?
There's nothing wrong with looking at the Nogrod voters. Not at all. The big deal was that at the time, most players were solely focusing on the Nogrod voters and seemed to forget that Menel was also lynched.

Brinn: You say that my vote was based on feeling, but so was yours.
Yes, but as I said, it's not the reasoning behind your vote that bothers me, but who you voted for and what time you made it.

Shastanis Althreduin

01-09-2009, 04:41 AM

I apologize for my inactivity toDay. It was the first day of classes of the new semester, and quite stressful. It is now four in the morning. I will post more when I wake up.

I would like to say, however, that apart from one thing that he said that made me raise an eyebrow, my vote for TGWBS was mostly a gut feeling.

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 05:22 AM

Okay, some thoughts:

Sally: Haven't heard much from her toDay, surprisingly. YesterDay she was given some attention as a possible candidate. I wouldn't put it past her to make a wolf-Sally look good in the eyes of other players by doing everything in her power to prevent a double lynch. I don't think missing the deadline for her retraction was at all intentional, but I don't think her votes mean she's necessarily innocent and I'm disappointed in anyone who assumes otherwise.

Lariren: There are a lot of flaws in her posts, but it looks to me like typical newbie behaviour. If she's a critic, I would think she'd be partnered with some very experienced players to balance it out. But she looks pretty innocent to me.

Fea: Is a mixed bag. She's obviously trying to mislead someone...the question is whether she's trying to mislead the critics or mislead us...

Kath : Hasn't said much toDay, but says she'll be back (probably by the time I'm gone). So far, she seems pretty sensible and innocent to me.

Aganzir: Yay, it seems we're actually agreeing with each other. Of course, that doesn't mean she's innocent. But she hasn't said anything suspicious so far, so I have no reason to suspect her. However, I will keep an eye on her.

Gwath: Seems like his typical self. Looks alright to me.

Shasta: I want to hear more from him and he says he'll be back later, but once again, I'll probably be gone by then. I do feel sorry that he's already back in school. My classes don't start until the 20th!

Strongbow: I really need to hear more from him.

Mac: Funny, I x-posted with him with a post that seemed to be in a similar format...yet we came to completely different conclusions. Some of his opinions about the voting just seems odd, which makes me feel uneasy. YesterDay I felt okay about him, but toDay I'm getting some bad vibes.

Gollum: Hasn't shown up yet toDay. I understand he was behind yesterDay, but some of the posts he made indicate he was reading the most recent posts and should've known it was close between two candidates. Even if he didn't have a strong opinion on either, voting for someone who turns out to be innocent is better than letting a double lynch occur in my opinion. If he had abstained early in the Day, or his vote wouldn't have mattered anyway, it's not quite so bad. But he was there at a time where every vote was critical and at that point had read at least part of the Day...so I find the fact that he chose not to rather upsetting.

tgwbs: I found his voting yesterDay most suspicious, and I don't feel any better about his posts toDay. He's one of those who solely focused on Noggie's lynching, and I disagree with some of his suspicions. Also, why does he think tp being around makes up for the double lynch? It's still a loss in numbers.

Boromir : As I already said before, I don't at all like his voting record, but his posts don't look overly suspicious. Specifically #310, which has good reasoning behind his thoughts. Nevertheless, I do want to keep a close eye on him.

Cailineomer: I really need to hear more from either of them...two posts is just not enough. Though from the little we've heard so far, nothing suspicious.

So...

Suspicious:
Gollum
tgwbs
Mac

Somewhat Suspicious:
Boromir
Sally

No Idea:
Fea
Aganzir
Shasta
Strongbow

Leaning Innocentish:
Cailineomer

Innocentish:
Lariren
Gwath

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 05:27 AM

I can't see how the cobbler would be able to pass on info that xe didn't know xeself. (Did I use that properly?)Xemself. But Wild Man glad gender-neutral pronoun spread.

I will certainly post YouTube links (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHAauiJwwmU) thoughWild Man look forward to more of same.

I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.This make Fea seem even more critic.

So phantom, now that you're dead, do you intend to help the good guys or the bad guys?... Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics? Because if the Cobbler knows her/his marks, than there's an extra player on the side of evil who knows that who s/he may or may not be voting for is ordo.Although Wild Man now thoroughly prejudice, this seem critic question to him.

In the post before, he said he wouldn't vote her. And then he does. Why the Legate 180?Read again post 137 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580044&postcount=137). Wild Man not say definitely not vote Fea - Wild Man refer to previous thought process, Wild Man unable decide who vote out of Fea, Kath, Gollum. Then, Fea come purposefully talk in riddle again, cause more headache. Therefore Wild Man vote Fea.

About this whole "save Nogrod" thing...It seems that came up when his whole divo comment was brought up via secret code talk. Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo?Wild Man not "qut". :p And no, Wild Man think Nog jest about divo. But Wild Man reason, post 192, "Wild Man not like Noggie-votes. Nogrod always like this, no?". Wild Man see no basis to Nogrod-votes.

Wild-Man strongly agree with following Boro sentiment: The origins of the Nogrod suspicion was based off some gut feeling of discomfort and Nog seems "off." Isn't that an even more generic reason, and I don't even care if it's Day 1, that's just baloney...

I kinda don't get Wild Man's suspicion of Brinn.Film Man find Brinn hard to place. Originally he slightly suspect, then he think she slightly innocent (see continuum-post), now he neutral again.

I would like to say, however, that apart from one thing that he said that made me raise an eyebrow, my vote for TGWBS was mostly a gut feeling.Thank you for lack of explanation. :p

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 05:30 AM

for a moddess to read!

*happy*

Few notes... it should be clear that the Phantom isn't going anywhere whatever schemes you kick up because it amuses me that he is around. :Merisu:

The soulmates are not lovers in the usual sense .. both are ordos and they are not out for themselves. That is why I didn't call them lovers....:rolleyes:

They are really just shirriffs (Masons) however a surviving soulmate becomes effectively a one strike assassin. Has the power to attack one other once at any later part of the game. Not obliged to use power - little wild card.

Hope that is clear.

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 05:33 AM

Also, why does he think tp being around makes up for the double lynch? It's still a loss in numbers.Simple. Phantom now function as known innocent, albeit no can vote. All know his viewpoint completely objective. Therefore all can trust phantom.

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 07:33 AM

Agan, Lari, and sally do use that against Nog, in effect, "snowballing" this vague feeling of discomfort around Nogrod.

And my question for you three is why did you snowball it?

My answer is I didn't mean to nor did I intend to. I thought that Nog was special, not a critic though. I was actually more suspicious of Gwath in the whole thing, but then read what others were saying and about how that was Nog's usual behavior and how it would make him more of a critic than anyone else so that's why I made the comment.

Long way around. Now I need to go and look at most of the other posts and see about who is saying what.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 07:36 AM

Mac's vote for Menel yesterday reminded me of his prior wolvery and denial about how he ever made a "case" against Brinn. But after stating Day 1 concerns I backed off for the rest of the game, only to be completely manhandled by him the rest of the time. I spent many a night beating myself up for never following up. So, whenever I next saw Mac make a move I thought suspicious, I promised myself I would go through with it. I did, and if he's running me around in circles again, at least I followed through this time, and can feel better about it. Basically, my vote for Mac had no good reason other than to make myself feel better for a prior mistake.
Fea always suspects Boro, Boro always suspects me now, I always suspect Nogrod, Nogrod always suspects Gwath. Does anybody have a suggestion how to continue/close this chain? :D

You know, Mac, my vote isn't much different from yours in terms of its context and consequences.

The difference is that I took a look at everybody and chose Menel because he looked most suspicious (though that was not much, I admit). You didn't look at anybody but Nogrod and Lari, and your look at Nogrod went no further than his case against you.

It always takes me a couple of days to get into my WW groove.

You better speed that up. ;)

Mac has fingerprints in both lynch cases, and from what Boro's said I'm beginning to develop some unease.

Huh the who? First, what fingerprint do I have on Nogrod's carcass? Second, all Boro said about me referred to a previous game and, objectively, that's really not something that should play a central part in ones suspicions (Boro's excluded).

Shasta, you can't announce to give reasons the next Day, then just state that it was gut feeling, and expect not to be suspected by me for that. ;)

Funny, I x-posted with him with a post that seemed to be in a similar format...yet we came to completely different conclusions.

Our format! She sstole it from uss!

But completely different conclusions? As far as I can see, we only really differ on the evaluation of Sally...

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 07:40 AM

It's time for me to vote. I hate voting early, especially since while I do have suspects, none of them are really strong enough for lynching. Plus, there's still several players I want to hear more from. But it's already morning and I have yet to sleep.

I'll vote for someone from my top three suspects.

I'm going back and forth on Mac. Part of me finds him suspicious reading some of his posts, then I come across another and am not so sure. My hesitance makes me think it'd not be such a great idea to vote for him just yet. And anyway, I think I'd like to hear more from him.

tgwbs I'm still very suspicious of. Yet, his response to my questioning his vote for Fea makes me feel a bit better about him. Quite honestly, the main reason I'd rather not vote him toDay is because he's such an entertaining asset to the game and innocent or baddie, I think I'd miss him if he were to be lynched so early. If I still continue to suspect him later on, I won't hesitate to vote him...but for at least toDay I think I'll leave him be.

Which leaves Gollum. Part of me feels a bit guilty voting him because he said he wouldn't be around much due to RL, which is understandable. But he was around for a time, however brief it was. Of course he couldn't catch up that fast, but he could've tried to contribute more than he did and instead I think he underperformed. That sort of thing is just bothersome, but what I really find suspicious is that he abstained from voting at a time when he could've prevented a double lynch. It just doesn't make sense to me. And perhaps he can explain his reasons and even change my mind, but he still hasn't arrived and I cannot wait any longer. If Gollum does survive the Day, I hope he will make a stronger effort to contribute in the future.

So, without further ado:

++Gollum

There is a teeny tiny chance I may show up shortly before deadline if I can manage to wake myself up. But I wouldn't count on it. Seriously.

EDIT: Ooh, some X-posting

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 07:49 AM

But completely different conclusions? As far as I can see, we only really differ on the evaluation of Sally...
Okay, maybe the word "completely" is exaggerating it, but we do differ on Gwath, Sally, Boro, and perhaps slightly on Aganzir and Kath (I don't think her vote is the most innocent). And of course, we're complete opposites when it comes to the matter of my vote. :p Also, you didn't exactly share what you thought of this "Saving Private Nogrod" act. Perhaps you stated your opinions elsewhere, but I'm not going to bother looking again through your posts at this hour.

Okay, now I really need to go to bed...

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 07:53 AM

and Lari, and your look at Nogrod went no further than his case against you.

Can you point me to it? Because I've gone through and I don't think he mentioned me once. I really don't think he had a case against me at all. Or do you know something I don't?

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 08:03 AM

And Mac your only involvement in the Nog vote was when the phantom suspected you were involved with Nog. Other than that you were pretty much out of it.

And haha, wow I read that previous post wrong. I should have had my coffee first. Don't mind it at all.

satansaloser2005

01-09-2009, 08:09 AM

Nothing wrong with calling a bit of attention to it (like we just did). I'm actually hoping it will be spotted by the Critics and Cobbler. The question is, what will they do about it?

I feel dumb, first of all. Noggie was tripping my radar and I completely missed this post. Of course, it's Phantom (and Fea), so I wouldn't have necessarily listened to them anyway ;) but still. I should have noticed the context of Phantom's post and reread Noggie's with that in mind. Well, hindsight, as they say....

I want to hear more from Mac before voting him.

Sally has said little of substance. Noggie gives more substance, but I find of what he does say, I tend to disagree with more. Of all the candidates so far, he's the one who gives me the biggest wolfish vibe. A feeling is not much, but it's all I can really offer. I don't have time to give it more thought, and I wouldn't mind at all seeing him lynched.

++Nogrod

Oh boy, I'm gonna be late to my appointment...

I can't really say a whole lot against this. I've had rushed votes as well (and will probably have another one toDay) so while it doesn't look good, I'll admit, I wouldn't condem her for doing this either.

Awwww.... did someone want to get rid of me?

Heh heh heh.

Eh, shaddup. *rolls eyes*

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

The phantom is immortal now and we have to end...*ahem* be enriched by him til the end? Oh... joy...

I have to apologise to Menel. Had I had more time and would have read your later responses to my vote, I would have retracted. You sounded very innocent there. Sorry.

To business.

Could you explain what you mean by "easy way out"?

Yesterday's voting:

Cailineomer's vote for Nogrod, while somewhat suspicious taken by itself, is probably not a critical one. Why would a critic want to get into trouble with one of the more persuading singers when there was not even an indication then that said singer will be eliminated? It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.
Gwath's vote for Nogrod and Fea's vote for Menel don't smell nice. Both are pushing a bandwaggon.
Brinniel's vote for Nogrod I don't like either. She pushes the bandwaggon with very little reason. Then again, a critic would have known that a Day1-lynching of Nogrod would have attracted interest, so would a critic not rather not have positioned herself in such a spot in a bandwaggon? Hmm..
What to do with Sally's vote? Of course every critic would love to see Nogrod lynched so early, but so much that they would risk their own neck for it by putting a vote in such a prominent space? Hardly. Her retraction looks innocent.
Boro's retraction for Menel is to save Nogrod, of course, but considering that he voted me before mostly because I voted Menel, it's a bit eyebrow-raising. Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?
Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.
Wild man's vote for Menel is not suspicious either. He stated he liked to save Nogrod before.
I'll have a look at the other votes later if I think it might enlighten something.

An analysis of the attempted killing of the phantom would be interesting, but I'm sure tp can do that better than I. I'll leave that burden to him.

Is it? While we still have tp's input, we are still down one in numbers and innocent votes. Painting situation better than situation is be suspicious behaviour, wild man.

It was something completely different. Some of your points on the roles seemed so off to me that I thought you were an innocent trying to confuse the critics. ;)

That's why I think in fact that it may not be Brinn. Would someone really do something that obvious? (Of course, I've made that kind of move as a wolf in another game, and it wasn't a slip so much as a temporary lack of sanity, so anything's possible.)

I want to think about who would have killed Phantom in more detail, but it's too early, so I'll have to get to it in the Night.

Sorry guys. I thought I was helping to prevent a double lynch. However I'm not entirely displeased with what has happened thus far (at least the phantom thing was rather funny), besides I would probably have continued to suspect Nog today anyway. However I have a harder time trying to see why Menel was killed. Apparently to save Nog from the gallows yes, but why was he so suspicious in the first place?

Don't know about that. I think his points against sally were not good. What's the sense in accusing someone of something they always do, at least this early?

I did but it was a thing I didn't take very seriously. Divo-Nog could say it, innocent Nog could say it, critic-Nog could say it.

I've noticed Lari's eagerness to agree on suspicions but I wouldn't lynch her because of it (at least yet) because she's new.

I'm getting more scared of Mac every time he posts. There's something that reminds me awfully much of the Mac-wolf I've seen.

The above comment reminds me of his I-told-you attitude (as in Other Minds and Hands, erm, almost two years ago when Boro I think almost got lynched all of a sudden - I don't remember the details; or in Scouring of the Shire vol.2 when people lynched an innocent probably Menel or Might). I don't know if he's always like that and I've just usually ignored it but those are the things I immediately connected his comment to.

edit: xed with Ilya

Indeed. He's a tricksy one, that Mac. That's, again, why he was at the top of my suspicion list yesterDay. He gives off some sort of vibe that he just knows too much, such as his "we can probably learn a lot from Phantom's death(ish) but I'd rather not comment on it" post. Loosely paraphrased, I know, and that in itself isn't too much of a big deal, but as a whole I'm getting a bit of a bad feeling from Mac still.

Oh great, we get to hear phantom talk for the entire game.

And if he doesn't count towards the tally, then it's really like he was killed...the only difference is that while the dead usually can't talk, he can. So when it comes down to numbers, we still had a loss last Night...am I right?

One thing: It's really bothering me that almost everyone is focusing on Nogrod's death alone. What about Menel? He often gets lynched early and I'm irritated to see it happen again. The sudden turn-around on him which resulted in a double lynch is just as suspicious. Especially these players who seemed to be so certain of Noggie's innocence, they contributed to Menel's lynching (some even retracting). And I will mention another reason I chose Noggie for my vote was because I hoped it'd prevent the lynching of Menel who was being heavily considered at the time. I know how it feels to die early several games in a row, and I don't think it was fair at all for Menel to be lynched so early.

Btw, what's so strange about Nogrod getting lynched on Day 1? It happened in Shasta's game and he was a werewolf. It happened in tp's game and he was a werewolf. So really if you go by record, lynching him on Day 1 seemed like a pretty good idea at the time...

Yeah, see the problem with Menel for me was how he justified his vote for Mac. If you'll notice my posts, I think Menel pretty innocent, but I found his vote (or rather his vote motivations) awkward enough that I was uncomfortable. However, Noggie was a bit more suspicious in my brain, not by much, and he was also ahead in the vote tally, so I wanted to push him ahead. Then the Menel-wagon started moving out and we were at risk for a double lynch again. Dang, was I frustrated.

I don't think I was around for those games, Brinn, but you make a good point. I'm not advocating the lynching of Nog on day one in every game, but he's tricksy, that one, and if I suspect him I'd rather not wait around to find out what he is. (Although I legitimately am sad that he's left so early, and now two games in a row. I'd say 'watch out Boro' but I'm afraid that I would be only too correct in my sarcasm.)

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. ;) My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

Short and sweet. Not a lot to post for our lovely Cailin/Eomer. I'd like to see more from these two. Heh, and I love the little 'oh, and kill Sally while you're at it, darlings' bit. Very cute. *grins*

Short comment now. More to say later.

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

*nod of approval*

Yes, and you're brilliant at it. Too brilliant, in fact, and from being your partner before I know just how dangerous you can be, little mister.

Simple. Phantom now function as known innocent, albeit no can vote. All know his viewpoint completely objective. Therefore all can trust phantom.

Incorrect. Well, correct, as we all know he's innocent, but he doesn't count in the innocent tally. So yes, TGWBS, we are in fact down another innocent after last Night.

Mac has fingerprints in both lynch cases, and from what Boro's said I'm beginning to develop some unease.

Yes, but you have to remember that our dear Mac is a smooth one. In fact, that's why the littlest thing sets me off about him, because I've been in his pack before and know how clever he can be. I'm just saying.

Okay, apology time. I had all my quotes done and some reactions when I was afflicted by what I like to call "sudden unexpected headache, can I shoot myself now?" syndrome. Aka I got a migraine and decided a nap was a good plan, but then I didn't wake up again at five or six like I'd planned. Sorry, I know, I'm a bit rubbish at keeping track of time. I'll just submit this now and catch up again. And I'll probably have to vote in the next 45 minutes or so, or else I won't be able to at all.

x'd since the last post I quoted. Ish.

satansaloser2005

01-09-2009, 08:14 AM

I think I was a bit off in my x'ing. Meh, my opinions stand, cracked though they may be.

Interesting vote, Brinn. I've gotten nothing solid from Gollum yet (as in I completely forgot he's in the game, which never bodes well, but I guess it's only Day Two) so I suppose if I have to semi-random vote this early in the Day I would not feel too bad about going for him as well. If he ended up innocent and did in fact get lynched, at least it wouldn't be yet another most-likely helpful villager off our roster.

I'll leave it for a bit and go get ready for work, then check the thread again before voting. Sorry, it's early and I'm not a morning person. Back in a bit.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 08:25 AM

Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo?

No. Like I said, I thought the phantom was special, not Nog, but that the phantom was using Nog as a way to hint without being too obvious. Remember the exchange where he was like, "Wait, you didn't mean Nogrod. In that case, yeah, definitely."? I took that as a clue that I was on the right track: that he hadn't been talking about Nog per se, but that he'd been using Nog to talk about himself.

Basically, you all can trust me. But I will not throw my weight around.

Even that pesky cobbler, huh?

J/K, in case anybody gets too stirred up. I just like knowing all the answers, you know? It irritates me in a really highly irrational way not to know how many players are on each 'side.' And then I remember J.K. Rowling writing "Harry, the world isn't made up of only good guys and Death Eaters" or whatever the exact wording was...

I can't see how the cobbler would be able to pass on info that xe didn't know xeself. (Did I use that properly?) That would make a giant continuity problem within the fabric of the performance.

Cobbler sends choice to Mith, Mith sends choice to Critics. I envision it sort of like the Cobbler picks up a packet of information which xe never gets to read. Of, of course, Cobbler PMs Mith, Mith PMs back, Mith PMs Cobbler. I know Mith used the phrase 'blind drop' and I assume that means that the Cobbler doesn't get to PM the Critics (that the Cobbler doesn't know their identity) but I just wondered if it meant that the Cobbler doesn't actually know the info that xe is acquiring.

Beautiful analysis if I may say so myself Lari

Yes, I totally agree. Informative, concise, and without triggering my ADD reaction like a list of quotes always, always does. Psh, Newbie... You're fair game now. ;)

Why all the big deal about people who were making a big deal about the Nogrod voters?

Is this rhetorical? I can't help but agree with Brinn. Since during the whole of my thing with the phantom yesterday, I never particularly thought Nog was a bad guy, I watched people jump him with confusion. Of course I knew that singling him out might be harmful, but that's a werewolf truism, and since he was the major example the phantom had brought to my attention, I figured if I had any hope of tp understanding what point I was driving at, I shouldn't start making things up and hope for the best.

So while my vote for Menel was a typical Day 1 style vote from me (is there anybody here that doesn't know my complete derision for Day One votes? It's a bunch of uninformed people making determinative decisions based on (if they're ordo) absolutely nothing that can - in a scientific environment - be called fact. Hence, it irritates me much the same way teaching ID in a bio classroom 'because you can't prove it isn't true' irritates me.)...

While my Menel vote was basically, "Well, I went down a list and couldn't find a better option..." it was weird seeing everybody jump on Nog given that his only real stand out action of the game was hinting that he might indeed be a good guy.

Hence the reason people are curious about the bandwagon onto Nog. Now my suggestion for that is that a Critic voted Nog early (I don't think late, due to the flurry of cross-posts: it strikes me as odd that a Critic would draw that much attention to his/her own lynch-pin vote on the first day of the game), or that it was a bunch of misguided villagers.

So I do understand why everybody wants to trace Nog's descent into hell, but I'm also curious why people followed up on my admittedly random Menel vote. "I can't think of anybody better" is nothing at all like "He did something suspicious." So in a tie-race between two ordos wherein the voters were trying their best to save one by killing the other, when it turns out that seriously, neither of them were Gifted? On day one?

The person I find most interesting at the moment, actually, looking back over the votes and the timing, is Sally.

Sal, have you said why you retracted? My only interest in the timing of it was purely practical: yesterday at Day End I wanted to know if it counted. But today, though it didn't count, I want to know why you tried saving Nog when, as it turns out, he was no more important than Menel.

It seems like it's always ordos who want to start stuff, and the wolves who jump on it later. Does that make any sense?

It makes sense, but I'm not sure if I agree. It makes sense because if a wolf jumps onto an idea after an Ordo, it can't be directly traced back to them: they can say, "But it seemed like so-and-so really knew what they were talking about, and I'd thought the same, so when somebody backed up my suspicion - so sorry it was wrong - it seemed obvious that I should vote the same way" or whatever.

At the same time, I've seen situations where wolves start stuff just to cause enough trouble so that people have to look at everybody, not just one or two people.

But I do basically agree with you: typically it's misguided ordos who mess things up. As a historical footnote, it makes me think of civilians listening to war time propaganda: with the informed people nudging people's opinions, the ordos can't entirely be blamed for mistaking fake stuff as fact.

Sure, tp can tell us he's on our side, but how do we know that for sure.

Well, if we find out if he either always tells the truth or always tells a lie, then we should ask him what the guy next to him would say because then either way the answer is a lie because the guy telling the truth would quote the liar with the lie, and the liar would be lying, so...

/Labyrinth.

Dear David Bowie: I am still in love with your makeup. ♥me.

Since his alliances may shift on a Day to Day basis, all the more reason not to listen to him.

On a more-serious-than-movie-reference note, isn't this essentially what we do even when he's not OG? We know he wasn't a critic, and we know he wasn't The Cobbler, but just as if he was still playing, we don't know his priorities (apart from 'himself') and we know he has no special other knowledge he can give us. So I propose this: it's dangerous to assume he's a declared innocent, because he's not: he's a declared OG, which, if you've watched the musical/movie or read the book, Erik was a nutjob serial killer with an absolute skill at torture and manipulate. The trapdoor king. So I propose: we listen to him about as much as we normally do: if his suggestions seem reasonable, we take a shot. If he sounds a bit too much like himself, we skip it.

Everybody follow?

Has the power to attack one other once at any later part of the game. Not obliged to use power - little wild card.

Does xe die if xe uses this power (sort of like a Hunter, I'm thinking)?

And is it made public? Like, if one soulmate kicks it, and they're marked out as 'a soulmate died' and the other one decides to use this wild card, as you call it, will there be a narration like "The other soulmate, Player X, killed off Player Y to make up for the death of X's soulmate, Z" or will it be like "Player Y has been killed"?

All know his viewpoint completely objective. Therefore all can trust phantom.

This creeps me out, Wild Man. Because 1) there's not really any such thing as objectivity, but more importantly 2) the phantom doesn't have any special knowledge that we know of, so anything he says is just as likely to be dead wrong as anything any of the rest of us say. So saying we can all trust him is like saying we can all trust pre-death Nog, or pre-death Menel (examples used because roles are now known). We can trust that the phantom isn't a Critic, but we can't trust that his viewpoints will be of any aid to anybody but the Moddess, who shall be amused by them.

I want to think about who would have killed Phantom in more detail, but it's too early, so I'll have to get to it in the Night.

Everybody? :rolleyes:

No, but I do agree: later (after I eat) I intend to take a look see about what might draw people to TP (apart from his native egoism).

Yes, but you have to remember that our dear Mac is a smooth one. In fact, that's why the littlest thing sets me off about him, because I've been in his pack before and know how clever he can be. I'm just saying.

Ditto that. My first game with Mac we were packmates and we - rather obviously, I must say - won. And another time I played with him, he was a wolf, and he had me totally fooled. Mac keeps me neurotic.

That said, I don't think he's a bad guy in this game. Watch me be wrong... :rolleyes:

--

Wow, so finally caught up...

I love going to bed and finding so much to read in the morning. It gives me something to wake up to, my lovelies, please don't desist.

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 08:40 AM

2) the phantom doesn't have any special knowledge that we know of, so anything he says is just as likely to be dead wrong as anything any of the rest of us say. So saying we can all trust him is like saying we can all trust pre-death Nog, or pre-death MenelWild Man say every game, every game none listen. Perhaps Fea critic. Perhaps Wild Man critic. Therefore, cannot trust what you say, cannot trust what Wild Man say. However, Phantom, and Nog, and Menel, NOT critic. Therefore, though not more knowledgable, still more objective, still can trust.

Wild Man obviously glad Brinn no vote him or Mac. However, Wild Man think unwise vote Gollum. Currently, suspicion of Gollum base on lack of input, which poor reason Day 2. Also, Wild Man think Moddess not make Gollum gifted/critic, therefore innocent.

satansaloser2005

01-09-2009, 08:52 AM

Okay, I thought of something while I was away for a bit.

We all know Gollum didn't vote yesterDay. Neither did some other people (another person....whatever) but we know for certain that he was around.

He could have broken the double lynch. He had every opportunity to break the double lynch. Now, I realize he didn't have a lot to base a vote on and I understand that, but I can't see an innocent villager just sitting back and watching the chaos as everyone scrambles to prevent the deaths of two (now known, then potential) innocents. It just sits wrong to me. I don't know who I would have preferred him to vote, honestly, but I think that in that situation (and I know this sounds wrong, but I'm in a rush) I don't care who he would have voted for, so long as he voted to break the tie. (This opinion is obviously biased by the fact that we now know that both Nog and Menl were innocent, but still. I've only seen one successful double lynch -ever- and that's why I think an innocent would have tried to prevent a frivolous one.)

And again, feel free to overrrule me if someone else seems more suspicious, but for now I have to go or I'll be late for work.

++Gollum

If you fine people kill me while I'm gone, so be it, it's been lovely playing with you all. Fortunately, I'm optimistic to survive the Day, and hopefully you can catch a wolf (again, hopefully Gollum, but you know how accurate a blonde like me is) while I'm away. Enjoy the rest of the day dearies! :)

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 09:00 AM

Therefore, though not more knowledgable, still more objective, still can trust.

Unless his incarnation of OG in game is anything like the Opera Ghost of the books! All I'm saying is we shouldn't trust that just because he's not a critic means he has the best interest of anybody but himself in mind. The Phantom of the literature really loved slipping nooses, 'Punjab lassos,' around the necks of anybody who caught sight of him. So maybe he's the mild mannered incarnation of the romantic music lover of the deep who Andrew Lloyd Webber gave some bone-chilling solos to, or maybe our resident Undead is a bit closer to the character I fell hard for, who was sold to a freak show as a child and whose closest 'friend' was one of the two women in his life who ever pitied him, and I'll hint for you: one wasn't his mother.

From Wiki, about Erik in the novel:

In Gaston Leroux's novel, the Phantom (named Erik) traveled throughout the world after running away from home at a young age. During his travels he visited India where he learned to kill people using the Punjab lasso. According to Erik's old friend, the daroga, the Punjab lasso that Erik wields is "curiously made from catgut (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catgut)" (from the Leonard Wolf translation) and only by placing your hand at the level of your eyes (thus stopping the lasso from closing completely and strangling the victim) can one escape it. This is attributed to Erik's skill at strangling.

When the daroga brought Erik to Persia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Empire), he used his skills at using the lasso in his new job as the Shah (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shah)'s personal assassin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassin), a job he excelled at due to his lack of scruples. He also used it to entertain the Sultana.

When Erik moved to France (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France) he kept a Punjab lasso in the torture chamber (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torture_chamber) he built. Thus, the victims of the chamber would have the option of ending their lives rather than endure its tortures.

When the sceneshifter, Joseph Buquet, found the entrance to Erik's 'house' in the third cellar of the opera house (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opera_house), he fell into the chamber and used the lasso to kill himself.

Later when the daroga and the Vicomte de Chagny went in search of Christine Daae (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Daae), whom Erik had kidnapped, they found a used Punjab lasso lying on the ground leading into the Phantom's chamber. Later in their journey to rescue Christine they fell into the torture chamber, where the daroga contemplated using the lasso to end his life as the tortures got worse.

So while we're of course free to assume that Mith would never, ever play games with us wherein she gives the phantom an alter ego known for having no scruples and being an exceptionally brilliant and unrepentant serial killer, I think it's foolish to ignore the literature unless she tells us point blank that the phantom (person, not character) is on the side of the ordos.

Also, Wild Man think Moddess not make Gollum gifted/critic, therefore innocent.

A note on this: I asked Mith pre-game and she told me the roles would be randomized.

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 09:34 AM

[Gollum] could have broken the double lynch.At time, we no know it be double lynch.

I asked Mith pre-game and she told me the roles would be randomized.Wild Man also ask Mith. Mostly randomize, she say.

Re:Opera Ghost. Wild Man think he act in interest of all singer thus far. Also, Wild Man see no independent victory condition for Opera Ghost, seeing as he no can vote, no can die.

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 09:42 AM

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
Gollum
Mac
***************
Lariren-Strongbow-Gwath-Cailineomer
***************
Ilya
Shastanis
Sally
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

About two-plus-half man-hour til deadline. Wild Man hope people vote early today, prevent repeat yesterday debacle. Therefore, for previous reason:

++FEANOR

Cailín

01-09-2009, 09:44 AM

People.... Day 2 and 9 pages of chatter... I had forgotten how garrulous you all are. :p

I am pretty much convinced Gollum is innocent and hope a more suitable lynching candidate shall be found. Instead, I am becoming wary of Sally, whose voting behaviour is suspicious (yes, I did think the last minute doubts were odd) and her response to accusations and remarks directed her way is just... Well, she has always been a remarkably fluffy player, of course. ;)

Can I also ask what the point of Ilya's astounding collection of quotations is?

As for the many other players, be assured that I am watching you. In a non-phantom, but actually having the power of a vote-way.

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 09:56 AM

While I'm working on my list I believe I have the votes so far right:
Brinn- Gollum
Sally- Gollum
TGWBS- Fea

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 10:08 AM

Alright then, would you please give a detailed explanation as to why you retracted your vote and voted Menel instead?~Brinn
Sure thing. I didn't want Nog gone on Day 1. I felt obligated to try and stop his lynching on Day 1, as he has done many more times for me. And why Menel? There wasn't anyone else, and the adrenaline at the end got to me. I saw things that Menel said that at the time looked suspicious; which I pointed out.

Specifically:
If you found something suspicious, I think everyone deserves to hear it.
And I said to reply:
Who said what was surmised about Nogrod, between them, was something suspicious?
It looked like Menel was trying to get a reason to, if not vote for Nog himself, get others to find Nog suspicious. So, I asked, who ever said what tp and Fea were clueing at was something suspicious?

At the time I thought it suspicious (odd, strange, whatever you want to call it) that Menel assumed they found something suspicious against Nogrod. It doesn't make any sense now because Menel voted for Mac, and doesn't save himself, and now that it's all over the Menel quote I questioned looks more like frustration towards tp and Fea for speaking in riddles, not about Nogrod at all.

There's nothing wrong with looking at the Nogrod voters. Not at all. The big deal was that at the time, most players were solely focusing on the Nogrod voters and seemed to forget that Menel was also lynched.~Brinn
Fair point and there's no reason we can't be all inclusive.

This make Fea seem even more critic.~tgwbs
This was tgwbs response to Fea saying she thought tp was the seer. If Fea is a critic that doesn't look very good. She is capable of being absolutely blunt about her choices and her thoughts.

Although Wild Man now thoroughly prejudice, this seem critic question to him.
And this is Wild Man's response to Fea's questioning about the cobbler. I think with this one prejudice clouds Wild Man's judgement ;). There has been virtually no cobbler talk and we can't forget about the cobbler in this one. I saw it as a chance to either flush out the real cobbler, or in the very least, get us talking about the cobbler.

My answer is I didn't mean to nor did I intend to.~Lari
That makes sense, and now I'm 98% confident in your innocence. One of the things that bothered me was when you said something like "By the looks of it I should be suspecting Nogrod."

I chalked it up as either a new wolf making a slip, or a new singer trying to find her range. Your explanation makes me believe the latter.

Huh the who? First, what fingerprint do I have on Nogrod's carcass? Second, all Boro said about me referred to a previous game and, objectively, that's really not something that should play a central part in ones suspicions (Boro's excluded).~Mac
Nice catch. That made me perk up pretty fast too, because I have no idea what I said today, and why Ilya said what she thought I said.

Ok, that's a mess, so let me just ask you Ilya - what did I say about Mac that you're referring to? Also, how was Mac involved in the Nogrod voters?

I can't really say a whole lot against this. I've had rushed votes as well (and will probably have another one toDay) so while it doesn't look good, I'll admit, I wouldn't condem her for doing this either.~sally
I will say Brinn's vote looks honestly innocent, now whether she's being honest and innocent or faking it, that is still to be determined.

I know Mith used the phrase 'blind drop' and I assume that means that the Cobbler doesn't get to PM the Critics (that the Cobbler doesn't know their identity) but I just wondered if it meant that the Cobbler doesn't actually know the info that xe is acquiring.~Fea
But see the massive inconsistancy? How could you justify a dead drop info to the wolves if the Cobbler doesn't know the info xe is dropping off? Xe's a sneak, not a hallucinajenic.

edit: crossed with everyone since Fea's post

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 10:10 AM

Page One:

Says Gwath will be unjustly lynched (seems like a joke).
Says Nog will help him (the phantom) catch the critics (seen as a seer hint?).
Says Cailineomer will die at night.
Says I'm up to something (no surprise there, I'm always up to something).
Says Lari's safe a few days (newbie free pass).
Says he can't talk to Boro (reference to The Republic).
Says Agan's a critic.
Says Sally's innocent.

Claims he was the first Seer dream.

Page Two:

Says Nog will show everybody how to sing. Boro catches this and mentions it later. 'Sing like a bird' maybe remembered by ordos as slang for somebody giving up knowledge/maybe people thought he was the Cobbler, which might explain the lynching.

Says it's the first time he's ever been afraid of the cobbler, that the cobbler will dream of gifteds and tell the wolves. If phantom was ordo, he always points out that the only use of an ordo really is to distract the critics from the gifteds. Since that's the only use of an ordo, if the phantom was ordo, he shouldn't be afraid of the cobbler. Logical progression to 'phantom must be gifted if phantom is worried about cobbler'?

Says it's a terrible idea for the seer to try to look like the cobbler to survive at night. Says a post or so later that he is the cobbler.

Hero worships Alan Rickman.

Page 3.

Is impressed with Strongbow for researching - says won't vote for him.

Says if he was a Critic, he'd be gunning for the Lovers.

Says that Mac figured something out, but only partially. (Later explains this as 'I wanted him to think I was a Lover, but didn't want to pin down a specific partner.')

Says to the werewolves "You will kill Nog" in attempt to 'subtly manipulate.' You know, subtly.

Page 4.

--

Okay, have to go for now, but I'll get back to this later...

the phantom

01-09-2009, 10:47 AM

At this stage we're still just treading water. Until the Seer, a Critic, or possibly Walter show up dead, we cannot pretend to know much.

In these sorts of situations I generally take a blind shot at a submarine. I mean- you know the Critics aren't going to off them. No, no, the Critics will be attempting to off the Lovers or the Seer. And why might they think someone is a Lover or the Seer? Because of their words.

And so it follows that the more you speak the more likely it is that you will say something that will cause the Critics to fear that you are gifted.

That should be a bit of comfort to those of you who fear Fea or Boro- if they aren't Critics then they'll be Night killed rather soon. For without a doubt the both have them have said something incriminating (from the perspective of the Critics).

Overall, I would encourage any Ordo out there to offer yourself to the Critics tonight. Make yourself look like a juicy target.

Phantom (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1xHirK4k5U) has spoken.

Shamed into solitude
Shunned by the multitude
I learned to listen
In my dark, my heart heard music

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 10:50 AM

Ha I just realised I was at least right about something when listing phantom as neither guilty nor innocent yesterday.

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...
I know! But they still remind me of wolfish you.
However from now on I promise to try to come up with some actual reasons for my suspicions because my gut suspicions against sally in last game were disastrous. (This doesn't mean I'd withdraw my Mac suspicions yet though.)

Bowie's doesn't seem intimidated by more experienced players, and since TP wasn't a huge subject of discussion on Day 1, aside from his cryptic playing with Fea, it might've seemed like as good a time as any to remove the threat.
I still fail to see your logic. Why wouldn't anyone else enjoy killing phantom then? Also his post today didn't help me understand his logic much (or well I understand it but I disagree with him). I'm not fond of deciding which is more important to kill first, cobbler of critics.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote?
Because I didn't realise what time it was until 25 past. I was reading through the thread and trying to decide who to vote. Plus I always vote rather late if I'm around for deadline.

Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour!
Nog behaves similarly enough when wolf so why should 'normal behaviour' make him innocent? I still think he was suspicious yesterday.

May I ask Agan, did your involvement in your last game wear you down a bit?
I don't think so but school start certainly did. I'm a bit too tired to come up with anything original, and thus far I've only been able to be online a couple of hours when the day has started just to return two or three hours before deadline.

Probably the least suspicious of the Menel voters. His suspicions of him came from the beginning.
Yeah, in the beginning he said Menel was too careful. I didn't think so so I can't right away see where he was coming from. His own vote was rather easy.

Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo?
:D:D
(I'm laughing at that Brinn qut)

Sorry Boro I won't duel you at least for now.

And my question for you three is why did you snowball it?
Because I didn't like it. It looked like Nog was provoking Gwath to incriminate himself.

I don't like Gollum getting votes today. It's too easy.

See? I have this little to say.

Besides I have no idea who I will vote today.

Sorry I'm just so tired. I'll try to do something useful.

edit: xed with phantom

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 11:03 AM

In these sorts of situations I generally take a blind shot at a submarine.~tp
Usually I would say that's playing it safe, and to win you can't footsy around, you have to go for the juggular. But this time I will agree, we have a couple more assets (and thus more people we don't want to lynch). Also, I remember the big downfall for the wolves in The Republic was the unexpected surprise in the lynching of a submarine - The Ka. That opened the door of you and I to make our moves.

So, in this set up, at this time, I say safe route is a good choice to go.

That should be a bit of comfort to those of you who fear Fea or Boro- if they aren't Critics then they'll be Night killed rather soon.
Come on tp, don't spill out all my plans! I have always been a good keeper of yours, or at least I hope I have.

*Note: By me saying this now lets see what the Critics will make of this little move. Walk in, I dare 'em.

the guy who be short

01-09-2009, 11:18 AM

Wild Man say: if must lynch "submarine", better lynch Shasta than Gollum. As Wild Man say, kill Gollum seem foolish without reason other than "he absent".

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 11:22 AM

Guilty
sally. No she isn't a top suspect, I'm just copying the names in the order they are on Mith's list. She's been playing rather conveniently and I want to go through her posts to form a proper opinion.
Fea. I'm wary of her. The questions concerning phantom and cobbler tgwbs quoted in #329 were something a critic Fea could say.
Mac. I'm not feeling very confident but he's my top suspect right now. I'm planning to go through his posts at some point.
tgwbs. Probably because I so often find that my opinion is the complete opposite to his. I wouldn't be surprised if either Fea or him was a wolf.

Innocent
Lari is leaning innocent. Her analysis was nice.
Brinn. I'm agreeing with her scarily much given how much I often disagree with her. Anyway she's the one I'm feeling the most comfortable with for the time being.
Boro is another one I'm feeling quite good about now.

Neither
Ilya. I don't understand her logic concerning Bowie and why he'd kill phantom, and I also can't see why she was less suspicious of him after knowing why he didn't vote. Why is not voting suspicious in the first place? Apart from that I don't know, except that she suspected me.
Kath is slipping under my radar.
Gwath. Hmm I think he's rather innocentish but right now I can't remember anything he has said, apart from he & Nog's quarrel yesterday.
Shasta is nowhere to be seen.
Bowie. I don't like to make any plans as for which baddie is more important to find first and therefore his concentrating on it yesterday seems odd to me. Apart from that there's quite little to go on.
Gollum is nowhere to be seen.
Cailineomer. Too little to go on.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 11:23 AM

Also, you didn't exactly share what you thought of this "Saving Private Nogrod" act. Perhaps you stated your opinions elsewhere, but I'm not going to bother looking again through your posts at this hour.
A couple of persons were uncomfortable with lynching Nogrod and voted/retracted in order to save him. While a critic might do so to make himself look good henceforth, given that Nogrod was an ordo, I think trying to save him was an innocent affair. Too bad Menel had to suffer for it.

Yes, and you're brilliant at it. Too brilliant, in fact, and from being your partner before I know just how dangerous you can be, little mister.
:Merisu:

However, Wild Man think unwise vote Gollum. Currently, suspicion of Gollum base on lack of input, which poor reason Day 2.

Wild man = Wise man.

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 11:29 AM

Fea darling. Cobbler is a SPY. Walter si not in a trance. Dead drop means he has no direct contact with critics. Of course he knows what he saw...

As for Soulmate.. I refer you to my previous statement ... :rolleyes:

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 11:35 AM

I would prefer Ilya, Gollum, or Cailin, over Strongbow, sally, or Shasta, as far as submarines.

I wouldn't call Kath, Lari or Gwath submarines, because a submarine implies not only quietness but suspicion. Kath, Lari, and Gwath I think we could continue to expect consistent participation, and I see no reason to believe them wolves.

Out of the ones I've listed above then. Like Kath and Gwath, I think we could expect the participation (how much of it they are able to give) from Strongbow, Shasta, and sally. I just don't have the innocent vibe from them, like I do from Kath and Gwath. More like an indifferent.

I think Ilya is more likely to be a wolf than the other two I mentioned in the first sentence. It's arguable as to whether she's really submarine though, because she's posted the most out of them, but she's a submarine in the sense that she's going rather unnoticed.

As helpful as her quoting has been, it scares me, because it reminds me of so much of Brinn's strategy in The Republic. She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent. Also, I'm scratching my head as to what she saw from me to suspect Mac. Maybe it was from yesterday? The "oh and what Boro said about you too" is just - well suspicious.

On the flip side, Ilya would probably be the riskiest choice, and that is she will be participating more so than the other submarines. But, her behavior today seems to fit more with a Cobbler who could be posting a bunch of stuff and really not say anything about it. Plus saying some things that really don't make sense. Or a critic who saw how successful Brinn was with this strategy and tried the same.

Cailin I'm not sure what to say, definitely a submarine, some questions, but not the most suspicious and really not all the suspicious. Just kind of hidden in the crowd.

Gollum would probably be the safest choice to go, also I have no idea what to expect as far as participation wise. This kind of approach I highly doubt would be a gifted, and I doubt would be a critics, we'd be probably be lynching an ordo, and playing it safe to avoid a disastrous decision.

Edit: crossed with everyone since last post

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 11:37 AM

Walter si not in a trance.
*imagines him walking like a zombie* :D

Hmm am I right in assuming that there's still 40 minutes till deadline? Only three people have voted thus far.

If I can't come up with good enough reasons to justify a vote for someone, I'm probably going to go with someone quiet. You can take it as a revenge for last game.

edit: xed with Boro

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 11:40 AM

Wild Man say: if must lynch "submarine", better lynch Shasta than Gollum. As Wild Man say, kill Gollum seem foolish without reason other than "he absent".

I agree. Unless Gollum goes Gil-absent, it seems silly to vote for him today. Particularly because there are others I find significantly more concerning.

Concerned

Boro
Ilya
Gwath

Leaning innocent

Lari
Brinn
sally
tgwbs
Mac

Need more to go on

phantom
Kath
Shasta
Bowie
Gollum
Cailineomer
Agan

I intend to vote for Gwath (due to his defensive behavior against all things, and due to the fact that there's nobody on my list I'd rather vote for).

I'm forgetting somebody on that list. Who am I forgetting?

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 11:42 AM

Sally: Has had suspicions thrown at her since Day 1. I’m entirely not sure where these are coming from. Seems innocent enough going through Day 1. Nothing much more and seems innocent enough.

Fea: When I started this list she hadn’t posted a lot, but then did. Is seriously good at playing this game and I'm not sure what to think about her. I'm beginning to suspect something about her though and leaning towards the guilty part.

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.

Brinn: Has not given me anything to suspect. All of her votes have been clearly explained and well thought out.

Kath: Am pretty sure is innocent as well.

Agan: Has a voice of reason and picks up on things. I’m not sure what to think about her other than she’s good at the game. I don’t really think she is a critic but I wouldn’t be surprised if she was one.

Gwath: Can not get a real good reading on him. I think I'm leaning towards more innocent than anything else, but I'm going to keep my eye on him.

Shasta: Am still suspicious of from yesterday. I might take TGWBS's advice on the submarine vote, but actually leaning away from it. Shasta hasn't said anything today, while it could be a good critic ploy, from what I've heard and seen it doesn't feel like that.

Strongbow: Hasn’t said much today but justified lack of vote. But gives me suspicions because of this comment “it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.” Going by that logic then we should be looking at him. Given the whole not showing up or posting thing. Am suspicious of him as well.

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us. It just rubs me the wrong. Add this with the whole Menel voting thing and it makes me sense a critic. I think I’m going to lean towards voting for Mac tonight.

Gollum: Hasn’t posted at all toDay. I’m not sure what’s going on with him. Brinn mentioned RL stuff so that would make sense but, well, still not here. There is a part of me that wants to be like Brinn and vote him off based on the whole no show thing. But its a very small part.

TGWBS: Should be kept for entertainment value. Plus I really see nothing that he's said that hasn't made sense or was sneaky.

Boro: Has been active and a voice of reason about looking at the votes. I'm not going to fall for his whole "the phantom gave my plan" thing because I don't think he's a wolf. Plus its too obvious for him to do that.

Cailin: Hasn’t said that much but at least did show up today. Seems innocent enough though. Showed up while making the list. Still seems innocent.

Guilty:
Shasta
Mac

Leaning towards up to something/possibly guilty:
Fea
Agan
Gollum

Leaning towards innocent:
Gwath
Ilya
Boro
Cailin

Innocent:
Sally
Brinn
Kath
TGWBS

Have no idea who's side he's on:
OG

Probably will be x-posted with everyone. Huh, I didn't.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 11:47 AM

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 11:48 AM

She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent.
I think it's a part of her playing style to admit it if she's doing suspicious things so I wouldn't use it as an argument for nor against her guilt.

I wouldn't like to vote Gollum because he hasn't posted much yet. Then again last (& only) time I played with him he didn't post much anyway. I wouldn't like to vote Shasta either as he can be really helpful if he just has time. I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them. I could vote sally but it'd feel unfair too, given last game. Of Cailineomer I really don't know.

I don't think you're forgetting anyone Fea.

edit: xed with Lari & Fea

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 11:51 AM

I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them. I could vote sally but it'd feel unfair too, given last game.~Agan
All is fair in love and WW. Someone's got to be it, nothing's personal.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 11:52 AM

Some thoughts on Ilya, who recently rised in my suspicions.

Compare #195 to #223: First she doesn't know where the Nogrod case came from, then she says other people put suspicions against Nogrod (and Menel) in her mind and thus keeps herself out of the vote-fray. Also, first she considers voting Gollum for his case against Strongbow, then she votes Strongbow herself.

Today, while I appreciate all the work she put into all her quote-collections, I'm a bit unhappy with it because there's not much of her own opinions, which I consider more helpful about summary-posts than the summary. She does give her opinions later, but they are kind of simplistic putting-into-boxes like.

In #324 she defends Gwath in a not too convincing manner, which, since I'm suspicious of Gwath, makes me suspicious of her, too. There's also her point against me, which does not make a lot of sense, as Boro remarked, too.

If Ilya should be evil, I think a close look at Brinn might be justified - there seems to be a connection.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 11:52 AM

Most excellent- I didn't realize deadline wasn't until quarter after, which means I have a few minutes to check my notes before posting (leave work at one, get home ish 1:05, look to see what it was I was thinking before I ADD'ed out around 11:23, post vote before 1:15). I apologize in advance that I'm running late on this. I was totally on top of things until um... actually, I don't want to admit that my boy distracted me. :D

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 11:53 AM

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 11:53 AM

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.
And that's why, if guilty, she'd be doing it.

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us.
That was a good way of saying it because it indeed looks like what he's doing. I just don't remember him being like that as an innocent (which doesn't mean he couldn't be, though - good as it is, even my memory has its limits).

edit: xed since Boro. Yeah I know but still.

Kath

01-09-2009, 11:53 AM

Hi all, sorry for my late arrival but it is the end of the working week and apparently it wore me out as I've just woken up from an unexpected nap! As a result this is going to be a little rushed.

So, let's have a quick look at what people have been doing:

Boro - thought looking at who might want to kill phantom would give clues as to who the critics might be, I personally believe the list would include everyone except Boro and Fea and so doesn't do us much good! Pretty much accuses sally. Carries on with his suspicion of sally, saying that her just out of time retract could have been carefully designed to be just out of time - I think that's grasping at straws really, especially given that it was Day 1 and no one knew how strict Mith was going to be about the deadline.

Lariren - I'm still inclined to leave her be. I think she's doing pretty well so far with keeping up with this madness and she doesn't look particularly suspicious either.

Ilya - says Agan and Lariren started the suspicions against Nog. Has done nothing but post quotes. Now that can be helpful, but not when we get none of her own comments in there. Did post with her thoughts, but there is some really odd reasoning behind them. Why would killing phantom be something Strongbow would want to do over anyone else? If Lariren was 'just kind of agreeing' and then changed direction then why is that suspicious? It just feels suspicious. What was that about a 48 Day, as we didn't have one the Day before why would she assume it?

Gwath - strange that I am less happy with him when he isn't oddly abrasive! The comment that caught my attention was only a response to phantom's role revelation though.

Mac - takes back his voting for Menel. It feels innocent.

Agan - can't work out why everyone is so appalled by the fact that people voted for Nog. I'm with her a bit on that, he was a bit suspicious yesterDay, the way he reacted to what Gwath said was odd. I can see where a case against him would spring from.

Brinn - says about the same as Agan actually, as well as mentioning the very fair point that actually Menel was lynched at the same time and we can get information from that as well.

Strongbow - explains his reasoning for the Day 2 Cobbler comment. Why would the Cobbler be more likely to accidentally give himself away on any Day?

Cailin - her apology, well it feels innocent, but I wish she had spent more of the post talking about her theories on toDay rather than just apologising.

Ah I'm out of time and haven't really finished. I also want to say that I think Fea is too quiet and I do share some of tgwbs' suspicions.

Right now I think Ilya and Boro seem the most suspicious, though I'm not convinced about Boro.

++ILYA

I'd like to have gone through a bit more thoroughly but from what I've seen so far I think that posting all the quotes and the voting tally is trying to look helpful while actually not being and that the reasoning behind her suspicions seems very odd.

Kath

01-09-2009, 11:54 AM

Have just seen Fea's posts that says the deadline is quarter past. Bah.

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 11:58 AM

Vote count:

Gollum - 2 (Brinn, Sally)
Fea - 1 (tgwbs)
Ilya - 1 (Kath)

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 11:58 AM

Kath some day I'm going to kill you for posting long posts so near to deadline.

I think Mac's points against Ilya were reasonable but I'm still suspicious of Mac. I was planning to go through his posts but got distracted. I'll do it tomorrow then.

Kath

01-09-2009, 12:00 PM

Kath some day I'm going to kill you for posting long posts so near to deadline.
I'm sorry Agan! One day I will learn to start them more than 20 minutes before the deadline.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 12:01 PM

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.

Some do. Brinn did. Roa did. It's little effort if it makes people think you're innocent and you get by on it for a few days - and maybe the whole game.

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us. It just rubs me the wrong. Add this with the whole Menel voting thing and it makes me sense a critic. I think I’m going to lean towards voting for Mac tonight.

I'm sorry if it sounded like I was singling myself out. That line was actually half-joking. *needs to use more smileys*

Haha, now I see Agan's post where she picked the same quotes... :D sadly, with a bit of a different comment... :(

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

Do, please. :)

crossed since Kath

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 12:05 PM

I'm sorry Agan! One day I will learn to start them more than 20 minutes before the deadline.
Heh yesterday I would probably have voted a bit earlier had I not been reading your post & everything that came after it.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 12:05 PM

I sense the danger of a last-minute bandwaggon against me, but since I can retract my vote if necessary, I'll vote now:

++Ilya

Clearly my top suspect right now, and there seems to be an actual chance to lynch her today, so no reason to hesitate for me.

Macalaure

01-09-2009, 12:07 PM

I was planning to go through his posts but got distracted. I'll do it tomorrow then.

Yay! *likes to be analysed* :)

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 12:08 PM

I think I'm voting

++Ilya

too. Besides if her role is revealed I'll have some actual evidence concerning Mac.

Gollum - 2 (Brinn, Sally)
Fea - 1 (tgwbs)
Ilya - 3 (Kath, Mac, Agan)

edit: xed with Mac. Garr I'm not liking you! :p (or rather I'm not liking my inexplicable gut feelings)

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 12:08 PM

Vote count:
Gollum - 2 (Brinn, Sally)
Ilya - 2 (Kath, Mac)
Fea - 1 (tgwbs)

Still deciding on my vote and slightly rethinking Ilya based on what Agan said(because she did post before you, Mac)

x-posted with Agan changing the vote count.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 12:09 PM

I was flipped out by Ilya's quote lists mostly because when I see quotes in anything I'm reading, I have a nasty habit of skipping them, because most of the time when something I read has a quoted off section like that, it's written in a language I don't know. Consequently, posts that consist almost entirely of quotes tend to completely throw me off because

1) the person looks like they're making points, but in reality they're just copy/pasting other people's out-of-context comments

2) my brain is conditioned to all but ignore them anyway (this is probably a trait singular to me, as it's caused by reading massive amounts of art and lit theory).

Basically, when I saw the lists of quotes, I harkened back to Freshman Writing Class and thought "Okay, so you filled up page space. What's your point?" I was bothered that Ilya didn't have an argument that she was supporting, instead it seemed like she was just organizing.

Which while I admit that I OCD adore organizing, I kept waiting and waiting for some sort of reasoning as to what Ilya actually thought, as opposed to what Ilya's organization skills are.

I was thrown off wholly by having to sit my way through what felt like a lot of carefully wasted space without having the payoff of Ilya actually giving us anything personal to go on.

It's like judging the opinion of somebody who's reading a script, you know? I want your own words, not somebody else's.

Probably why I write the stuff I do, and ignore the stuff with MLA citations...

I apologize that this looks like a bandwagon last minute, but I'm also not willing to cause a double lynch (or even get close) today by voting Gwath (plus I don't have time to substantiate any arguments)

so

++Ilya

Aganzir

01-09-2009, 12:11 PM

There's what, 16 of us alive and only seven votes cast a few minutes before deadline...

Mith is there a modfire for non-posters/voters?

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 12:12 PM

Remember that teeny tiny chance I might wake up before deadline? Yeah, amazing.

The only reason I'd retract my vote now is if someone I thought innocent was on the lynching line. But if it's Ilya on the lynching line, I could care less about saving her.

Btw, I realised I totally forgot about Ilya on my analysis. Interesting since I copy and pasted the names from Mith's living list.

Some quick thoughts:

Long quote posts don't necessarily mean guilt. Yes, I did it last time as a wolf, but I've also done it as an innocent. So have other players. People have brought up the idea that she's trying to replicate my strategy, which is possible simply because she is a newbie. Btw, when I made quote posts, I at least added one liner thoughts, or tried. She did not...which I'm not terribly fond of. I'm also not fond of her vote yesterDay.

Boromir88

01-09-2009, 12:13 PM

There's what, 16 of us alive and only seven votes cast a few minutes before deadline...~Agan
There will be at least another. I was with-holding for reasons I don't care to explain, as it seems unecessary now.

++Ilya

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 12:13 PM

Mac is seeming more innocent to me than he did earlier toDay. I am unsure about the votes against Gollum - they seem...weak, I guess? I have just the smallest suspicion of tgwbs, but it's entirely instinctive and not rationally justifiable. sally, though...seems suspicious to me, I think, for her behavior at the end of Day 1 and her pale vote for Gollum toDay.

Lariren Shadow

01-09-2009, 12:15 PM

Quickly before the deadline and running away to go buy The Tudors Season 2 I'm going to go with my first thought of voting for:

++ Shasta

Brinniel

01-09-2009, 12:15 PM

Also before deadline, I want to make a quick note on Sally. Reading her vote post, part of me thought, "Oh good, I'm not completely alone on my thoughts about Gollum." But another part of me is really worried, because I felt like she was just echoing me almost word for word...

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 12:15 PM

Curtain falls

Gwathagor

01-09-2009, 12:16 PM

I actually don't have any opinion at all about Ilya. For some reason, I haven't paid enough attention to her posts to remember anything about them, so I am not sure what to make of what seems to be her (?) imminent death. Oh well.

++Sally

EDIT: Crossed! I shouldn't have bothered, it seems.

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 12:19 PM

There's what, 16 of us alive and only seven votes cast a few minutes before deadline...

Mith is there a modfire for non-posters/voters?

I will consider it if it becomes a repetitive fault. I don't anticipate modfiring tonight. But I will review the situation - I have been keeping half an eye on participation and it is something I will monitor.

Ilya

01-09-2009, 12:21 PM

Hey, ya'll. I'm late to Day 2. Again. Although, bright side, if I am voted off, at least I won't have to worry about that anymore.

I don't really have time to defend myself, I guess, but, look, I'm not that good with analysis as is becoming quite obvious. I was trying to be helpful in a way that I can easily be helpful.

++Gollum

Because firstly I'm taking TP's advice, and secondly, I'd like to see Day 3.

Ilya

01-09-2009, 12:24 PM

Oh, man, if my vote just counted, it's be another tie.

--Gollum

++Mac

Don't want to leave you guys with another double lynch to clean up.

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 12:53 PM

OK my post got lost in the crash :(

I make it Ilya 5 Gollum 2 Shasta 1 Fea 1 any dissenters?

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 12:58 PM

I have Ilya at four, but my computer crashed right before the 'Downs did, so the count is a quick one and might be wrong.

Either way, it's Ilya.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-09-2009, 01:00 PM

Never mind, you're right. I found my error: I missed Agan's vote through Lari's cross post. Anyway, it's Ilya for 5.

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 01:05 PM

I need a little more time on the death scene but I will not keep you in suspense.

You are another ordo down.

I'll let the critics know Walter's intelligence and then will await Seer, Critic and Plinge choices. Should be good for a 6pm start tomorrow.

In the mean time I am ripping off a lovely aria for Ilya..

Sorry for the extra delay.. it would have been sensible to check vocal range before I started ... but another lovely Aria and if you kill a soprano at some point I'm prepared.

Mithalwen

01-09-2009, 02:19 PM

The second day had started with the singers being astounded by the revelation of the Phantom's true identity. Well three of them had to pretend to be astounded and the rest perhaps should not have been so astounded given that the opera ghost had taken a Ronseal approach to his disguise.

The singers' confidence had been knocked by the loss of two of their number the previous night and while they didn't know if htey could trust the Phantom knew that the three critics and their accomplice were still among them. This made them cautious in their voting and a third of them abstained or missed the deadline.

This time their vote was overwhelming. Ilya , though she had sung more than other possibilities had been accused of mimicry, of offering too little of her own interpretation – she had to be a Critic not a true executant musician. She must go.

Her farewell aria gave a clue to her distraction – she had fallen under the spell of the Opera Ghost and now that she was to be parted from him by distance as well as the boundaries of life and death, the girl from the Vales of Anduin sang of her sorrow in a voice that indicated so clearly that she was a true artiste and no critic:

De cet affreux combat je sors l'âme brisée !
Mais enfin je suis libre et je pourrai du moins
Soupirer sans contrainte et souffrir sans témoins.
Pleurez ! pleurez mes yeux ! tombez triste rosée
Qu'un rayon de soleil ne doit jamais tarir !
S'il me reste un espoir, c'est de bientôt mourir !
Pleurez mes yeux, pleurez toutes mes larmes ! pleurez mes yeux !
Mais qui donc a voulu l'éternité des pleurs ?
O chers ensevelis, trouvez-vous tant de charmes à léguer aux vivants d'implacables douleurs ?
Hélas ! je me souviens... il me disait :
Avec ton doux sourire...
Tu ne saurais jamais conduire
Qu'aux chemins glorieux ou qu'aux sentiers bénis !
Ah ! Fantôme ! Hélas !
Pleurez! pleurez mes yeux ! tombez triste rosée
Qu'un rayon de soleil ne doit jamais tarir !
Pleurez mes yeux ! Ah ! pleurez toutes vos larmes ! pleurez mes yeux !

Great voice and interpretation though a tad slow perhaps (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=lv501BEbIcg)
With orchestra but think sounds better with a mezzo (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=YSQtILzP3SU)
Unpolished but wow what a voice (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=LHv8ViSCbls)
Night 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone
TGWBS - bass, woodwose,
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith

You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)

Mithalwen

01-10-2009, 12:15 PM

The singers once again retired to their dressing rooms for the night. The true contestants were downcast by the loss of yet another of theitr number while the three critics and their ally were inwardly gloating.

After they had picked up their message from Wlater the three critics chose there target and moved silently along the pasages of the opera house to where their next victim was singing, confident that the contestants' luck would soon change with his help:

Der Kritikerfänger bin ich ja,
Stets lustig heissa hopsasa!
Ich Kritikerfänger bin bekannt
bei Alt und Jung im ganzen Land.
Weiß mit dem Lokken umzugehn
und mich aufs Pfeiffen zu verstehen!
Drum kann ich froh und lustig sein,
Denn alle Kritiker sind ja mein.

Papageno (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=5-Qq-DeEXhw)

"That's what you think!" they chorused in harmony as they burst in, not even bothering to tell him he was out of his range struggling with his tessitura. This time the singer would be dispatched and would stay dispatched. And they had hit the jackpot.

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith

You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO
The guy who be wild (Woodwose) Singer-seer.

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)

Looks like 6.15 tomorrow again...

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 12:34 PM

Ouch.

So did the wolves figure tgwbs was the seer or did they receive the information from the cobbler? Or did they just kill him because of some unknown reason? I'll go through his posts and see if I can gather anything.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 12:37 PM

I'll go through his posts and see if I can gather anything.

I'm in the process of doing that now. Whether the critics guessed he was worth lynching or the cobbler guessed he was worth eying, either way he must have said something worth pursuing.

Macalaure

01-10-2009, 12:38 PM

Ouch indeed.

Did tgwbs say anything anywhere that pointed towards him being the seer? Need to check.

First the phantom and now the wild man? We can safely conclude that our critics have no sense of humour. But what can you expect from critics...

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 12:41 PM

Have gathered all of his posts, now sifting through for statements about the game as opposed to syntactical references.

Will be around...

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 12:49 PM

Oh wow.:eek:

I would have never guessed.

I think I need to go through the posts to see for any references to him as the seer and possibly looked at who suspected him.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 12:56 PM

I'm in the process of doing that now. Whether the critics guessed he was worth lynching or the cobbler guessed he was worth eying, either way he must have said something worth pursuing.
Well I do it too, anyway. The more the merrier. ;)

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 12:58 PM

I meant to add the more the merrier to that...

I'm at work, as an explanation for why I might post things like unfinished sentences.

"And that's why I suspect"

Um, Fea, who do you suspect? "Oh, sorry, somebody wanted to learn how EBSCO works and then somebody was trying to check out a copy of Ballet Shoes."

the phantom

01-10-2009, 01:09 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if TGWBS was Walter's Night 2 spying pick.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 01:10 PM

Fea, I actually find it rather amusing that the two people tgwbs listed as the most suspicious are analysing his posts now.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 01:12 PM

I agree, Agan. I'm vaguely counting the number of times he said to lynch both of us, rolling my eyes and wondering if somebody who won't be viewed as having a vested interest in this is also analyzing.

Phantom, as our resident ish-objective observer, you want to figure out what's what with us?

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 01:14 PM

Oh, I missed it- Lari's looking.

Good. I liked her last batch of analytic posts. They were so concise and informative. Awesome. That's my girl! (That said as the roomie who frequently proof reads her academic papers for her.)

the phantom

01-10-2009, 01:32 PM

Phantom, as our resident ish-objective observer, you want to figure out what's what with us?
You don't want my opinion, Fea. Trust me.

I'll still give it. But the news probably isn't good.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 01:36 PM

In his first post he suggested driving Fea and phantom out with sharp iron because they cause headache, even if innocent. Killing tricksy folk was his policy throughout day 1.

He thought phantom spoke logic but added that he is tricksy. Phantom could be cobbler but he didn't believe so. Later he thought and hoped phantom was innocent. Of course it's possible he had dreamed of phantom and been told he's the opera ghost, it would justify hoping he's innocent. Dunno though.

He was inclined to think also Boro and Nog innocent; didn't know what to think of Gwath and sally; thought I and Lari seemed reasonable; was wary of Mac (and Menel) who sounded too careful and found also Brinn's carefulness bad; thought Bowie seemed ok; was wary of Ilya but wanted to give her the benefit of doubt; and encouraged Shasta, Kath, Gollum, and Cailineomer to speak more.
Of Fea he said the following:
Feanor Peredhillion - Make Wild Man head hurt. Say nothing of use. Wild Man want lynch.
I don't know if he could have dreamed of her and found her a baddie on night 1 or if this is just an expression of their mutual love, but it seems to be the strongest opinion he expressed on day 1.

He continued his Fea suspicions later:
Feanor list no make Wild Man feel any better. Feanor suspect nobody. Feanor give no real information. Frivolous.
He also said he could vote Fea, Kath or Gollum, none of whom had votes, or Menel whom he was less willing to vote.
Then he said he wouldn't vote Gollum whom he didn't know or Fea as it would be a wasted vote because the appetite to lynch her seemed small. Considered voting Kath. Eventually he voted Fea, saying even if she isn't a wolf, she deserved it (for speaking in code). He justified his vote by saying that lynching someone else than Fea would remove potential helpful input and lynching Fea would remove headache.

After Kath had posted he said he was glad he hadn't voted her. Makes me rather sure he hadn't dreamed of her.
He didn't like the Nog votes and suggested voting Fea, Menel or Mac. Retracted his Fea vote to save Nog.

On day 2 he said the following concerning the revelation of phantom's role:
This good new make up for last night double-lynch, think Wild Man.
I don't think it is very likely, but this could be interpreted so that he had dreamed of Nog on night 1 and got a new known innocent now. Hmm his later comment about the double lynching not being that bad after all kind of destroys this theory.

Then he analysed the voting. No opinion on Cailineomer. Not extremely wary about Mac. Suspicious of Gwath (defensive against Nog, speaks much yet says little and accuses Lari of the same). Suspicious of Fea for speaking much yet saying little and pushing bandwagon without being even suspicious of Menel. Didn't think Brinn looked very good because of convenient flip-flopping on suspicions, but her next post looked more innocent. Found Kath's words wise. Had no reason to suspect Boro and said he felt innocent. Was neutral towards sally. Found Ilya's throwaway-vote only mildly concerning. Worried of me for voting late despite being around, didn't like my suspicion of Mac (he had called my points against him good on day 1) and lynching Nog. Saw little reason to suspect Lari (I don't find the use of word see very important here given that there seems to be no reason he would have dreamed of an innocentish newbie this early).
His conclusion was the following:
Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
***************
Lariren-Shastanis-Strongbow-Gollum
***************
Ilya-Mac-Cailineomer
Sally
Gwath
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

Later he posted a few quotes by Fea that made her seem more critic in his eyes.

He said he was glad Brinn hadn't voted him or Mac, but he didn't like the Gollum suspicions either. Those were the three candidates Brinn had named in her post so I don't know if it means anything else but that tgwbs had changed his opinion on Mac.

Then he posted a new list which wasn't that different from the first though. I'm going to quote it here anyway.
Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
Gollum
Mac
***************
Lariren-Strongbow-Gwath-Cailineomer
***************
Ilya
Shastanis
Sally
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty
I don't know how Gollum ended up being so high up when he hadn't posted much. It was only the suspicion against him because of being absent that tgwbs didn't like.

Voted Fea.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had dreamed of Fea and found her guilty on night 1. Besides dreaming of her would suit a seer who be short quite well. Another option would probably be Boro whom he seemed to trust rather much.
I don't know about his night 2 dream. Could be that it was Mac whom he found innocent - he had some suspicions against him on day 1 but on day 2 he seemed to think he was rather innocent.

edit: xed with phantom

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 01:38 PM

You don't want my opinion, Fea. Trust me.

I'll still give it. But the news probably isn't good.

I'll guess, shall I?

Any sane person who reads Jay's list of people to kill should automatically think "We really need to lynch Fea and Agan, stat."

Because he frequently points to us as distinctly dangerous, voted for me twice (though retracted once), and said time and again, "Even if she's not a critic, she should still die."

Regardless of my role, while analyzing his posts, I would argue that he didn't dream of me and merely wanted to lynch me because he always wants to lynch me. Either I'd be saying that as an innocent who knew that my schpiel was true, or I'd be saying it as a bad guy who wanted to manipulate the village by pointing out hypotheticals.

I claimed jokingly on day one that I am a critic. It was suggested that any time I say on day one that I'm a critic, I must be.

I am the single most suspicious villager at the time, and I should't expect to survive the Day.

Sound about right?

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 01:38 PM

I agree, Agan. I'm vaguely counting the number of times he said to lynch both of us
Hmm I don't think he ever said he wanted to lynch me. :p

edit: xed with Fea

the phantom

01-10-2009, 01:40 PM

Possibilities...

1) Walter viewed TGWBS on Night 2. The info was received by the Critics last Night and they acted upon it.

2) The Critics came to believe on their own that TGWBS was the Seer.

Implications of option 1-
Fea would then be the likely Walter candidate, dreamed of on Night 1. But then who was the Night 2 dream? Critic Agan? An innocent Boro or Kath? But both Fea-Agan and Boro-Kath were listed in pairs as "most guilty" and "most innocent". Would TGWBS pair a certain with an uncertain? Unless his Fea vote was meant to separate her from Agan despite the pairing. Which opens up the possibility that I was his Night 2 dream.

Implications of option 2-
This would be possible if both Boro and Kath are innocent, but even more likely if Fea and Agan are both guilty. One on each list perhaps? Only if Fea is guilty, I would say. If he pegged only a guilty Agan, I can't imagine Agan being that touchy about it. Unless she feared that Fea was Walter, of course.

Option 3, which I hope is not what happened-
TGWBS, in order to remain hidden through the first couple days, gave no clear clues, or even incorrect clues, about his dreams. But through bad fortune Walter dreamed him and he was done in before he could tell us what we really thought. :eek:

Option 1 strikes me as the most likely, largely due to TGWBS's statement on Day 1-
++FEANOR

Even if she not wolf, she deserve!
Now, this would seem to say "Fea=Walter".

And if she is indeed Walter, I can see why she might spy him the following Night. And then that info gets passed on and he is slain the Night after.

Unless of course he worded it that way because she is a Critic (to avoid detection). This would mesh better with the attempt on my life Night 2. For if she is indeed Walter, wouldn't she have spied me Night 1? And then the Critics receive her report, which I presume would read "Walter found Phantom to be- The Opera Ghost". And if that's what they received, why would they kill me? Surely they wouldn't think "The Opera Ghost" meant "Seer", and certainly not "Divo". They definitely wouldn't try and kill a supsected invincible Divo.

Unless- they believed I was one of the Lovers, as I was indeed pretending to be. And they saw that I had asked for my "Christine" to step up, and so they believed that "Opera Ghost" was simply the designation for one of the Lovers.

Thoughts?

EDIT: x-post Agan/Fea

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 01:43 PM

Hmm I don't think he ever said he wanted to lynch me. :p

Most guilty: Fea and Aganzir. Twice.

I mean, he certainly wanted me lynched, but that doesn't make it any less apparent that he thought you were quite a threat to the village.

Which dream makes more sense: waste a dream on self-destructive nutjob Fea who will get herself lynched 'just in case' by day three anyway, or use a dream on a quietly dangerous lower-level threat who is likely to skate through without ever raising more than a trickle of suspicion?

I know how I work as a seer.

I'd never bother dreaming of myself. Or the phantom. I'd assume they'd die off without my bother. Nog I'd dream of. Agan, Boro, Brinn, Mac. Those types. The dangerous ones who are capable of standing off to the side of those who go down in a haze of gory.

Macalaure

01-10-2009, 01:49 PM

The seer did get a dream in night 1, didn't he?

tgwbs definitely didn't dream of the phantom in Night 1. This speaks clearly against it:

Wild Man feel phantom speaks logic. But phantom indeed tricksy. Menel correct, perhaps phantom cobbler. But Wild Man believe not.Yet, tgwbs was clearly after his tricksy folk on Day 1, tp and Fea. He voted Fea in the end.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580010&postcount=113

There are a couple in here that he could have dreamt of and found innocent. If he dreamt of a baddie, it had to be Fea. He is not that clear about anybody else.

The whole situation would make a lot of sense if Fea is the cobbler. If she is a critic, tgwbs would probably have died last night already. If she is the cobbler, the critics wouldn't have suspected tgwbs very much before, and only got the crucial information before Night 2.

This fits into the mold:

Even if she not wolf, she deserve!

It would also explain tgwbs's sigh before his vote. If he knew that Fea was the cobbler, he probably expected her to dream of him and then die.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580315&postcount=284

Options: he dreamt of me and found me to be the ordo that I am; he dreamt of Gwath and found him guilty (note how the end of the line about Gwath is the same as the end of the line about Fea).

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580318&postcount=286

He did not dream of Brinn. Kath and Boro could have been found innocent, but looking at tgwbs's posts from Day 1, I don't think those two are likely dreams.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580344&postcount=300

Now he put me into the more suspicious lot, so he did not dream of me. If he dreamt of Boro, then he likely did so in Night 1 instead of Fea. What he says about Aganzir, along with him putting her on the same line with Fea, indicates that she has been dreamt of and has been found guilty. Since he was one of the failed Nogrod-savers, a dream of the most crucial Nogrod-voter would make a lot of sense. A dream of Gwath is less likely given his position in the list. Note that Boro and Kath are not on the same line: Kath has not been dreamt of. While he was suspicious of her on Day 1, he backed off it before the deadline.

In #329, it sounds like tgwbs does think of Fea as a critic, not a cobbler. He does not pursue Aganzir the way he pursues Fea, which makes a dream of Aganzir less likely.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580421&postcount=345

Then again, he keeps on writing their names on the same line...

If it wouldn't be so unlikely that tgwbs dreamt of Kath, I would consider it possible that he dreamt of her and Boro and found them innocent. However, he definitely dreamt of Fea. Anything else is inconceivable. It is also quite inconceivable that tgwbs wrote one known-to-him baddie on the same line with an only suspected baddie. Therefore:

Night 1: Fea
Night 2: Aganzir

*requests double lynch*

I'm not surprised at all that Fea and Aganzir are so eager to be the first to analyse tgwbs... ;)

I have not yet read all the other analyses. I'll do that right away.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 01:52 PM

I'm not surprised at all that Fea and Aganzir are so eager to be the first to analyse tgwbs...

Psh. Nobody else seemed to be home but us...

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 01:58 PM

His first post of the game's an interesting one:

Wild man say: Drive Fea, drive phantom out with sharp iron! Tricksy folk cause headache, even if innocent.
It would suggest either Fea or phantom, to likely Day 1 choices. Seems frustrated by their tricks, but it's a pretty clear statement of innocence.

Menel - Why not drive out tricksy headache-maker? Someone must die. We know not who is critic. Ergo, it best to kill tricksy folk.
This from post 37 would also suggest that his Day 1 dream was not a wolf.

Wild Man feel phantom speaks logic. But phantom indeed tricksy. Menel correct, perhaps phantom cobbler. But Wild Man believe not.~post 73
Not sure what to make of this one about tp, whether tp was his Day 1 dream and he was trying to say he was innocent, without blatantly saying so, or if he didn't know/just believed it.

His 113 post, is a list. There is a little more direct statement regarding tp:
phantom - talk much. phantom talk wise, but phantom always talk wise! Ergo Wild Man not know what think. Wisdom not sign of innocence, but Wild Man think - and hope - he innocent.
This is a little stronger statement than the rest. For example, for myself and Nogrod he says he's "inclined to think" we're innocent.

He wants Fea lynched, for making his head hurt:
Feanor Peredhillion - Make Wild Man head hurt. Say nothing of use. Wild Man want lynch.
And he is wary of Mac, says Brinn is bad for not suspecting anyone, more likely to trust Cailin than some others, and everyone else is in the middle.

More wariness about Fea
Feanor list no make Wild Man feel any better. Feanor suspect nobody. Feanor give no real information. Frivolous.~post 127

In 137, doesn't want to vote Gollum, says appetite for Fea is small not her. There is this about Kath:
Therefore Wild Man say to self: vote Kath!

Now Kath come. Kath say she post again perhaps. Therefore cannot yet vote Kath.

Even if she not wolf, she deserve!
In 157, he votes Fea, based on the headache/tricks/being Fea. He does later retract the vote and votes Menel. I would assume this would take Fea out of the Night 1 dream.

My conclusion is his Night 1 dream did not find a critic, and it was tp. A highly likely choice, and tp was the only one he made moderately confident statements of innocence from the start of the day until the end.

Onto Night 2

Edit: crossed with A LOT of people

Gollum the Great

01-10-2009, 02:03 PM

Ummm.... Hi!

Ten thousand pardons for yesterday's absence, I was whisked away from the web and dumped elsewhere.

Ok... so Brinn considers me susceptible of suspiciousness?

Gollum: Hasn't shown up yet toDay. I understand he was behind yesterDay, but some of the posts he made indicate he was reading the most recent posts and should've known it was close between two candidates. Even if he didn't have a strong opinion on either, voting for someone who turns out to be innocent is better than letting a double lynch occur in my opinion. If he had abstained early in the Day, or his vote wouldn't have mattered anyway, it's not quite so bad. But he was there at a time where every vote was critical and at that point had read at least part of the Day...so I find the fact that he chose not to rather upsetting.

Allow me to point out that you based your charge on opinion, which hardly constitutes guilt.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 02:05 PM

I'd dream of you before me, just because you're always so hard to figure out. And at least in the game we were wolves together you were rather a quietly dangerous lower-level threat than a self-destructive nutjob.

Yeah Mac the seer got a dream on night 1.

I thought it was possible he had dreamed of you and found you innocent on night 2 although he put you to the suspicion category at first. It wouldn't get so much attention if he gradually moved you to the innocent lot. I don't know how likely that is though.

I'm rather baffled about him writing our names on the same line. If he was equally certain about both of us, it'd mean he hadn't dreamed of either, but his constant suspicions against Fea indicate otherwise.

edit: xed with Boro & Gollum

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 02:10 PM

Maybe it's good that I have a long driveway to shovel today and am packed in a foot of snow, I might sit these early hours out and do some work - I can't be barricaded in my house tomorrow.

Anyway, I almost forgot about the possibility of finding WP. Which I agree with Mac, either Night 1 or Night 2 it was Fea. His vote on Day 1 could either be a statement of intent for his dream on Night 2 (Fea), or he spotted Fea on Night 1, not a critic, but the tricksy WP.

And if Fea is Walter, it would make sense she would choose him the next Night, dumping the info to the wolves.

the phantom

01-10-2009, 02:18 PM

Hmm- am I hearing an echo?

:p

Macalaure

01-10-2009, 02:24 PM

Seeing how desperate Fea is today, I'm even more convinced of her guilt. There is no astonishment like: "Jay was the seer?? Then why the §$%& did he think I was guilty all the time?". Instead, Fea is on the defense from her first post on.
Also:

I know how I work as a seer.Different seers work differently.

Aganzir's analysis is tricksy. If she and Fea are in cahoots, she decided to let Fea go down and save herself.

I'm rather baffled about him writing our names on the same line.
I'm rather baffled that you point this out only in your next post and not in the analysis itself. To me, it's the most conspicuous feature of tgwbs's posting. This is actually the way I would do it if I was bad: analyse everything truthfully and then not play down or defend yourself against the things said about oneself, but simply omit it as far as possible and hope everybody else overlooks it or is too lazy.

I came, I saw Boro's analysis, I did not believe my eyes.

This from post 37 would also suggest that his Day 1 dream was not a wolf.What did you expect him to do after a lucky Night 1 dream of a critic or maybe only a cobbler? Walk around and exclaim what you found, or pursue evil in a concealed way? You either let yourself be blinded by tgwbs's headache-talk, or your analysis is malevolent.

Edit: hmm... now you relativise it.

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 02:25 PM

People who tgwbs thought were suspicious: Fea, Agan, Gwath, Sally, Ilya, Mac, and Cailin. Though most suspicious of Fea and Agan.

People who tgwbs was guilty: Brinn, Mac on the first day

Mac made an interesting point with the “I don't really understand why the wild man narrowed himself down to Fea and Kath in the end.” About tgwbs’s vote. I didn’t understand tgwbs’s reasoning then because he made this long post:
"Wild Man make boo-boo. Great Mother-Goddess extent deadline. Ergo, real deadline now little under two man-hour away.

Wild Man make following thought process:

Not vote gollum, for not know him. Not know if quiet is normal. Kill him may waste ordinary life.

Not vote Fea. Appetite for lynch Fea small. Therefore vote waste.

Therefore Wild Man say to self: vote Kath!

Now Kath come. Kath say she post again perhaps. Therefore cannot yet vote Kath."

But he did want to lynch Fea and started on the whole Fea kick again yesterDay.

But he did answer to the whole switching voting in this:
"Read again post 137. Wild Man not say definitely not vote Fea - Wild Man refer to previous thought process, Wild Man unable decide who vote out of Fea, Kath, Gollum. Then, Fea come purposefully talk in riddle again, cause more headache. Therefore Wild Man vote Fea."

Those two also have comments back and forth about if the roles in the game were random or not. Apparently, some were and some weren’t. I don’t think that matters much in the long run, but would Mith put Fea as a critic on purpose? Or would it be too obvious? But she is guilty, maybe not a critic, but the cobbler?

Pretty much tgwbs’s wanting to lynch Fea the first day was headache and/or he believed her post about being a wolf(highly unlikely). But since he was the seer and seeing her tricks Day 1 he probably would have dreamed of her. And then he goes on a “lynch Fea” kick but also suspects Agan. It leads me to believe that, though we'll never know, he dreamed of Agan last night.

It seems that Fea is guilty of something.

It is interesting that Agan is always in the same place as Fea. To be honest I thought Agan was the seer(I feel like its ok to say that now, considering we know who the seer was) but nothing much else from her.

Votes for either of them would be good for tonight.

I just find it interesting the Brinn suspects tgwbs of being guilty for the past 2 Days and he turns out to be the seer.

I think I may have lost my train of thought once or twice during this post.

How many dreams did the seer get? I can't seem to figure it out.

Edit: In my process of writing this it has been come redundant with all the cross-posting.

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 02:27 PM

Hmm- am I hearing an echo?

:p~tp
To deny Fea was tgwbs dream and there isn't something sneaky about her is suicide. There will be a lot of echoing today.

It's clear cut and dry, either it happened on Night 1 or Night 2, and Night 1 he didn't dream of a critic.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 02:28 PM

I'm rather baffled that you point this out only in your next post and not in the analysis itself.
Because I realised it only after I saw your post. Earlier I had just thought, 'ok, he suspects us both,' but I had paid no attention to the fact that he seemed to suspect us equally until you said it aloud.

edit: xed with Lari & Boro

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 02:37 PM

What did you expect him to do after a lucky Night 1 dream of a critic or maybe only a cobbler? Walk around and exclaim what you found, or pursue evil in a concealed way? You either let yourself be blinded by tgwbs's headache-talk, or your analysis is malevolent.~Mac
Not to be arrogant Mac, but I know how to use seer lingo, it is never the seer's intent to leave confusing statements. Now that happens, but seers don't purposefully set out to confuse.

Did I say tgwbs was jumping out everywhere shouting wolf! wolf! wolf! No, but if he did he would lead clues to the wolf, not make statements that he doesn't know who any are.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 02:50 PM

There is no astonishment like: "Jay was the seer?? Then why the §$%& did he think I was guilty all the time?".

Of course there's no astonishment, sweetheart. Even if I felt it, do you really think I'd type it? Who would believe me if I showed up the day after the seer had been killed, the very seer who'd been regularly trying to get me lynched, and said sweetly, batting my eyelashes, "Oh my, oh dear dear dear, who could have done such a thing?" Nobody would believe me, they'd assume I was a lying devious little thing. So why pretend like he didn't suspect me? Why play act like I don't know the village will see me as its greatest threat now, whether or not I am? It would be very Blagojovich of me to come in and say "But I'm so totally innocent! I can't wait to prove to you how innocent I am!" when all the apparent evidence, whether it's circumstantial or not, points to my phonelines having been tapped. You follow? Of course I'm innocent, but it's a wasted breath for me to bother trying to profess it when the 'evidence' is so solidly against me.

It is an ordo's duty to help the village catch a wolf. I understand that the village is all but obligated to lynch me today, just in case. I also understand that I'd go out much more happily if I knew that the entire day wasn't dedicated solely to saying, "But of course she's guilty," while letting the bad guys off the hook.

Different seers work differently.

Yes, darling, but I've only ever been myself, never somebody else.

If she and Fea are in cahoots, she decided to let Fea go down and save herself.

If she's a 'wolf,' she found a fantastic human shield. Who's going to blame her for turning on me now? Either that or she's an ordo and is just seriously misguided.

I came, I saw Boro's analysis, I did not believe my eyes.

Nor did I. While I am happy to profess that the overwhelming evidence against me is merely inconvenient assumptions which are unfortunately wrong, I find it hard to believe that Boro would support me.

I find it hard to believe that anybody would support me.

If I was playing werewolf with myself, I'd certainly lynch me based on the events of the past Night.

To be honest I thought Agan was the seer(I feel like its ok to say that now, considering we know who the seer was) but nothing much else from her.

Why?

It's clear cut and dry, either it happened on Night 1 or Night 2, and Night 1 he didn't dream of a critic.

He also never said he dreamed of a critic at all. He just said he didn't trust me. That's nothing new to me. Nobody trusts me. You yourself, Boro, said that I'm the type of person who'd stab you in the back after talking pretty.

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 03:01 PM

I find it hard to believe that Boro would support me.~Fea
You can try to drag me down with you in your S.S. Imploder, Walt, it aint gonna work. The walking through the dark commoners might fall for it, but your sorceress charms won't work on the rest.

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 03:02 PM

Fea:

As to why I thought Agan was the seer, it was a little comment from the first page actually: "Don't worry Gwath, thus far phantom is the only one who assumes he was dreamt of."

It just stuck in my head.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 03:05 PM

You can try to drag me down with you in your S.S. Imploder, Walt, it aint gonna work. The walking through the dark commoners might fall for it, but your sorceress charms won't work on the rest.

Oh come off it, buddy, you totally implicated yourself. Now I'm just teasing.

You set yourself up for it.

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 03:08 PM

Oh come off it, buddy, you totally implicated yourself. Now I'm just teasing.

You set yourself up for it.~Fea
Sorry for not having the benefit of prior knowledge to tgwbs' identity and being able to look through his posts to create a tidy and clear analysis.

Gollum the Great

01-10-2009, 03:24 PM

So... (still catching up) phantom is here just for fun now? And TGWBW is dead? *Groans* He was cracking me up with those incomplete phrases!

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 03:25 PM

Sorry for not having the benefit of prior knowledge to tgwbs' identity and being able to look through his posts to create a tidy and clear analysis.

Sorry for not being as lovable and cuddly as you. I see TGWBS's suspicions of me and think, "Silly Jay's always suspecting me. Nothing'll come of it." Except today I see he was the seer and think, "Oh $---, they're going to see that and kill me for sure." And then I try to figure out the best course of action, which I decide is: not playing it off as me being in total shock, because really, I'm brilliant. Not much shocks me, because I envision scenarios before they happen. I seriously doubt even you, doll, could pull one over on me. So starting now and pretending like I'm a clueless little girl who can't figure out why I'm in trouble? When everybody already knows that if I wanted to, I could massacre them all? It's not at all in character.

Versus you... now you're usually not so forgiving to me as oh, say... I am. So why the switch now?

Unless you're trying to save me.

If you can't, I say you... take advantage. If you follow.

satansaloser2005

01-10-2009, 03:28 PM

I checked in around noon to see the kill but just now am able to post.

Wooooooooooow. Wild man be deaded. :(

Okay, I'm going to pull up a vote post for you lovely people and look at tgwbs' posts myself a bit, though it seems it's being done to death (no pun intended) so I may just look his posts over and see what there is to see.

Back shortly, I hope.

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 03:32 PM

Unless you're trying to save me.~Fea
If you are innocent, I would consider it, but I'm not taking a bullet for you.

You're just lucky the NFL playoffs have started.

Gollum the Great

01-10-2009, 03:36 PM

All right, I'm going to leave soon and might not be back for a while.

Looking good:

Lariren (strikes me as doing just is best for the opera)
Strongbow (nothing to suspect)

and uhh, I'm being dragged off again.

If I'm back before DL (which I probably will) I will vote. Hopefully.

Have fun.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 03:41 PM

If you are innocent, I would consider it, but I'm not taking a bullet for you.

As if. I wasn't asking you to take a bullet for me, I was asking you to give one. At an opportunely vindictive moment.

Brinniel

01-10-2009, 03:48 PM

My guess is that it's most likely the cobbler spied on tgwbs. The narration seems to slightly indicate it and tgwbs doesn't seem like a surprising spy choice to me. Of course I could be wrong, but that's just what I think.

It seems there is a good chance tgwbs dreamt of Fea and found her evil, whether as a critic or Walter Plinge. But even though he pursued her from Day 1, it doesn't necessarily mean he dreamt of her on Night 1. He could've simply found her suspicious then decided to dream of her on Night 2 only to discover his suspicions were accurate. And then there's the chance he didn't dream of her at all, which I really hope isn't so and I find less likely.

Right now it looks to me the possibilities of his dreams were:

Night 1:
Fea
Nogrod
Boro

Night 2:
Fea
Kath
Boro
tp
Aganzir

It is possible he dreamt of Agan and found her guilty, but only if he already dreamt of Fea. I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt. Fea does look like the more guilty one since tgwbs pursued her more...but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target. Or maybe she was just easier to target and in case he was killed, his persistence would leave a clear clue towards her guilt.

I haven't actually went back looked at tgwbs's posts for myself yet, and I should probably do that.

I just find it interesting the Brinn suspects tgwbs of being guilty for the past 2 Days and he turns out to be the seer.
I don't find that interesting at all. It's quite common for the seer to appear wolfish and they often do receive some suspicion. He looked suspicious to me at the time, so why shouldn't I have suspected him?

EDIT: X-ed many times

the phantom

01-10-2009, 03:52 PM

Fea dear, if it was likely you were a Critic, I would actually try and save you. That way the Lovers would have a Critic target to take a shot at. There would be no pressing reason to be rid of you today.

Unfortunately, the scenario that appears most likely is Fea=Walter. And so logically we should lynch you, as it wouldn't be a good idea to risk yet another spying mission.

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic. ;)

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 03:57 PM

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic. ;)

*pouts*

But I did that on Day One and nobody believed me! :Merisu:

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 03:58 PM

So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic. ;)

Does she admit it or do we blindly take her word from the first page that she is a Critic?

Mithalwen

01-10-2009, 03:58 PM

This is most intriguing...sorry to have ot leave you to your own devices but I think I am getting hypothermia...

Brinniel

01-10-2009, 03:59 PM

Allow me to point out that you based your charge on opinion, which hardly constitutes guilt.
Well yes, I based it on opinion. A lot that occurs in WW is based on opinion, since there usually little evidence to go on. In my opinion, your behaviour was suspicious, therefore I voted you.

But anyway, with all that's happened since my vote, you're not exactly at the top of my concerns anymore.

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 04:00 PM

I don't find that interesting at all. It's quite common for the seer to appear wolfish and they often do receive some suspicion. He looked suspicious to me at the time, so why shouldn't I have suspected him?

Oh makes sense. I seem to remember from somewhere in the thread the talk about Seers looking like Cobblers to. Plus possibly Seer-cobblers.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 04:24 PM

Aganzir's analysis is tricksy. If she and Fea are in cahoots, she decided to let Fea go down and save herself.
Hmm I suspected her already yesterday. And tgwbs. I was rather positive there was something odd going on around them but I wasn't sure on whose part.

As to why I thought Agan was the seer, it was a little comment from the first page actually: "Don't worry Gwath, thus far phantom is the only one who assumes he was dreamt of."
I don't mind looking a bit seerish every now and then if it means the wolves might come after me rather than the real seer.

Fea uses the word follow rather much.

but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target.
I don't think that would make sense. If I was the seer and dreamed of the cobbler, I'd rather try to get her/him killed first as s/he is more dangerous with her/his ability to reveal roles to the critics.

Fea dear, if it was likely you were a Critic, I would actually try and save you. That way the Lovers would have a Critic target to take a shot at.
Save her until one of the lovers dies?

I'll do now what I was supposed to do yesterday and go through Mac's posts.

the phantom

01-10-2009, 05:24 PM

Save her until one of the lovers dies?
Yes, if we figured she is a Critic.

But as Walter seems just as likely (or more likely), I would action is the order of the day.

A question to Fea- you pretty much know you're dead. So, would you like to die alone, or do you think Agan should die with you, as someone suggested earlier? I'd just like to know.

Macalaure

01-10-2009, 05:55 PM

Because I realised it only after I saw your post. Earlier I had just thought, 'ok, he suspects us both,' but I had paid no attention to the fact that he seemed to suspect us equally until you said it aloud.I'm not buying that, I'm afraid. It would have been a sloppy analysis if it paid no attention to this fact, but the rest of your analysis was not sloppy at all, so I suspect intent.

On Aganzir suspecting Fea before: It could be (and is likely, I'd say) that Fea is the cobbler and Aganzir a critic, so that does not prove the innocence of either. Not to mention the critic-on-critic possibility.

Not to be arrogant Mac, but I know how to use seer lingo, it is never the seer's intent to leave confusing statements. Now that happens, but seers don't purposefully set out to confuse.

Did I say tgwbs was jumping out everywhere shouting wolf! wolf! wolf! No, but if he did he would lead clues to the wolf, not make statements that he doesn't know who any are.A seer is, of course, in the dilemma to leave his knowledge behind should he die, but if he does it too obviously, he'll die quicker than he desires. While seers don't wish to confuse (though tp suggested earlier that it is at least possible that tgwbs did), they need to obscure their knowledge to the point that it is only decipherable to anybody once his role is known.

Anyway, I was just irritated by your first analysis which suggested that Fea is not evil at all. There is evidence that Fea is the cobbler, there is evidence that Fea is a critic. Only her death will show.

Of course there's no astonishment, sweetheart. Even if I felt it, do you really think I'd type it? Who would believe me if I showed up the day after the seer had been killed, the very seer who'd been regularly trying to get me lynched, and said sweetly, batting my eyelashes, "Oh my, oh dear dear dear, who could have done such a thing?" Nobody would believe me, they'd assume I was a lying devious little thing.Given the evidence against you, a genuine statement of innocence and surprise would probably have been the only thing that could have saved you. Now only a miracle could. ;)

I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt.

How could the seer have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched? (We should all go to England and beat some sense into him if he only made is believe he dreamt of Fea. ;) ) The question is, do we just lynch Fea, or do we take the chance and get more than just one baddie?

Of course, scheduling a double lynching will be tough, since we have two people willing to derail it in the last minute.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 06:49 PM

So, would you like to die alone, or do you think Agan should die with you, as someone suggested earlier? I'd just like to know.

I would like to take a critic out with me, if I must die, but if there is no certainty, than darling, I prefer to die alone.

How could the seer have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched?

The question isn't whether or not he wanted me lynched, it's whether or not he dreamed of me. Which I say he did not.

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 07:42 PM

Sorry it seems you're not going to get a Mac analysis yet. The minute I was about to start working on it an msn window popped open, and I've been chatting with half the players ever since, and it's almost 4am now.

The worst thing is, I'm not sure if I have time for it tomorrow either as I'm going to get home only two hours before deadline. Sorry for being this useless.

Shastanis Althreduin

01-10-2009, 07:56 PM

Legate is never this under-the-radar unless he's hiding something.

++Legate

Aganzir

01-10-2009, 07:56 PM

Okay so in lack of any serious suspects I'd rather get rid of the dead weight.

++Legate

He hasn't shown up at all which is rather untypical of him.

edit: xed with Shasta

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-10-2009, 07:56 PM

So what's concerning me most about this game is Legate's conspicuous absence.

This cannot be allowed to continue.

++Legate

Kath

01-10-2009, 07:57 PM

You know who I'm most worried about? Legate. I didn't even realise til now but he's not posted once! That is most suspicious. Therefore:

++LEGATE

Brinniel

01-10-2009, 07:58 PM

You know, all this focus is on Fea is unhealthy. Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder where Legate is. It's not normal for him to be so quiet. He's gotta be up to something.

Which is why I'm voting:

++Legate

EDIT: X-ed posted with a bunch. Apparently they're thinking the same thing...

satansaloser2005

01-10-2009, 07:59 PM

K, I was looking through the voting records and I noticed something. Legate hasn't voted once. Or even posted, for that matter. I mean, I don't mind submarines, but this is ridiculous. I bet he's working for the baddies in some way and is too chicken to show his face for fear he'll trip up and give himself away.

So....

++Legate

edit: x'd. oh my giddy AUNT that is x'd.

Lariren Shadow

01-10-2009, 08:01 PM

Seeing all of the evidence against Legate. I have to this:

++Legate

With all of the no voting and such.

the phantom

01-10-2009, 08:05 PM

What are you talking about? Legate is about the most trustworthy person here.

++Legate for Rep

satansaloser2005

01-10-2009, 08:16 PM

(Disclaimer: Yes, I know, I'm rubbish at song lyrics. And I whipped this out mighty quick, so bear with me.)

I could sniff out all the critics if I wasn't so narcissistic
Consultin' with the mod.
And my head I'd be scratchin' while
my thoughts were busy hatchin'
If I only had a bod.

I'd unravel every riddle for any individ'le,
With the itch to lynch.
With the baddies I'd be floggin'
I could be another Noggin
If I only had a bod.

Oh, I could tell you why tgwbs refused to use syntax.
I could think of things even Fea couldn't uncode.
And then I'd sit, and BS some more.

I would not be just a nothin' my head all full of stuffin'
My heart all full of pain.
I would dance and be merry, life would be a ding-a-derry,
If I only had a brain.

Aka dead men vote no reps.

Macalaure

01-10-2009, 09:12 PM

Errr...

I demand a mass-modfire!! :p

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 09:24 PM

Anyway, I was just irritated by your first analysis which suggested that Fea is not evil at all.~Mac
Understandable, I clicked on his post count and was going down post-by-post from Day 1, which the language didn't make it seem like he found a critic on Night 1. But there is no doubt that if on Night 1 he wasn't confident about Fea, than Night 2 he knew for certain, which I didn't get to yet. I wasn't considering the cobbler possibility until I read the other analysis posts, which all came out simultaneously it seemed.

That is when all the talk of Fea being tricksy and particularly his vote "She may not be critic, but she deserves it" made the most sense. I was looking solely at the critic possibility, and on Night 1 it just doesn't sound like he found a critic, but he possibly spotted Walter. Or in the very least, Fea thought tgwbs dreamt her Night 1, so checked him out the next night and then the info was dropped to the wolves. I hadn't gotten to tgwbs Day 2 posts, which I will do now.

At least, now that the Cardinalss of seemingly run away with it in their game. :rolleyes:

Boromir88

01-10-2009, 09:58 PM

As if. I wasn't asking you to take a bullet for me, I was asking you to give one. At an opportunely vindictive moment.~Fea
If I thought you were worth it, I'd still be more than glad to take the noose for you. I recall attempting that not too long ago, because I was far too big of a distraction towards the end, but that didn't work out. I made the attempt though, and if I thought you were worth it more than my own measly existance, I would do it again.

Yes, if we figured she is a Critic.~tp
There may be just that possibility. Day 2, tgwbs' language changes towards Fea...

Post 329
This make Fea seem even more critic.
Although Wild Man now thoroughly prejudice, this seem critic question to him.

Post 341
Wild Man say every game, every game none listen. Perhaps Fea critic. Perhaps Wild Man critic. Therefore, cannot trust what you say, cannot trust what Wild Man say

Now if he did spot Fea as the cobbler, and with the talk of the Cobbler's ability to spy this could be tgwbs just trying to throw Fea off. And so he changes his language by starting to call Fea a critic. Or, his vote for Fea on Day 1 was a statement of intent for his next night dream, he checks on Fea and finds she's a critic.

satansaloser2005

01-10-2009, 10:37 PM

Sorry, had this open in a different tab and forgot to submit it. Enjoy!

Brinn-->Gollum at 7:40am
Sally-->Gollum at 8:52am
TGWBS-->Fea at 9:42am
Kath-->Ilya at 11:53am
Mac-->Ilya at 12:05pm
Agan-->Ilya at 12:08pm
Fea-->Ilya at 12:09pm
Boro-->Ilya at 12:13pm
Lari-->Shasta at 12:15pm

Gwath-->Sally at 12:16pm (past DL)
Ilya-->Gollum at 12:21pm (past DL, retracted)
Ilya-->Mac at 12:24pm (past DL)

Didn't vote: Shasta, Bowie, Gollum, Cailin/Eomer

For those of you unfamiliar with my vote tallies, italicized villagers are innocent, underlined villagers are known baddies, and all vote times are Central, with a deadline of about 12pm.

Gollum the Great

01-11-2009, 01:23 AM

Sorry if I seem pretty dumb, but I didn't even know Legate was playing.

Cailín

01-11-2009, 06:29 AM

Do we have seven villains? That was one of the craziest things I've ever seen in Werewolf.

Well, Eomer here. Apparently I am playing today because a certain someone is busy and important. ;)

I had just said to Cailín last night that, while the village won't be too happy with our lack of contribution, at least they wouldn't kill us on the off-chance that we're a submarine Critic - not when there's this whole Fea and Aganzir situation. A case to answer, and all that. It would be mad. I'm sure Legate would agree.

I suppose we need to assess that 7 in a row and decide who the players and the pawns are. I think our critics are staring us right in the face.

Cailín

01-11-2009, 07:21 AM

I think Eomer once again managed to confirm the extent of our natural innocence.

Nothing but excellent play from the Netherlands. :p

Eomer of the Rohirrim

01-11-2009, 07:24 AM

I hate you all so much. :p

Macalaure

01-11-2009, 08:38 AM

Not much going on here...

One thought:

If Fea is indeed the cobbler, do we really want to only lynch her today? I mean, the seer is dead, so the only tasks that remain for the cobbler is to find out the diva and the soulmates, which is interesting but not vital to the critics, and to take a bullet for the critics.

If Fea is the cobbler, then we're about to do exactly what she wants us to.

Mithalwen

01-11-2009, 08:46 AM

Errr...

I demand a mass-modfire!! :p

First, I am going to have a little drinky - and then I am going toexecute the whole bally lot... especially those whose noses are prettier than mine.

Seriously unimpressed.

Boromir88

01-11-2009, 09:10 AM

If Fea is the cobbler, then we're about to do exactly what she wants us to.~Mac
Perhaps, but we need to start somewhere, and our best shot is Fea.

If she's a critic, maybe we can go in pick up other mates.
If she's the cobbler, maybe we can discern her other spies.

(And yes I realize with Fea either one of those is a crap shoot. I can't even figure her out when she says "I left you a clue, and here it is for you!").

But we got to start somewhere, and I would prefer it not be Agan, who there's really nothing on other than being paired with Fea. Which, albeit doesn't look good for a critic-Agan, but if she's innocent and is caught in an unintentional assocations? Unless you propose a double-lynch today, because whether Fea turns out critic or Walter, it won't change anything regarding Agan, and we'd essentially end up lynching her the next day anyway?

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-11-2009, 09:22 AM

You really shouldn't blame Lari. She was nothing but hesitant. The others can attest to that.

the phantom

01-11-2009, 09:39 AM

This is what happens when everyone gets on IM all at once.

But seriously, less than three hours to the deadline. Good luck with your decision. I shall sing at you all tomorrow.

For Fea, I'm afraid it just might be....

Past the point of no return
No backward glances
The games we've played til now are at an end
Past all thought of "if" or "when"
No use resisting
Abandon thought and let the dream descend . . .

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-11-2009, 09:46 AM

Unless she counts the mass Legate vote (which it doesn't look like she will).

It's certainly a moment to go in the werewolf history books.

Lariren Shadow

01-11-2009, 09:50 AM

Fea to Boro:
As if. I wasn't asking you to take a bullet for me, I was asking you to give one. At an opportunely vindictive moment.

That's an interesting quote and I know Boro picked up on it. I understand that this might be another lover ploy but...I don't know. It looks to possibly incriminate Boro as another wolf(if Fea is a wolf or cobbler and spied on Boro).

Even the reply is interesting:
"Boro: If I thought you were worth it, I'd still be more than glad to take the noose for you. I recall attempting that not too long ago, because I was far too big of a distraction towards the end, but that didn't work out. I made the attempt though, and if I thought you were worth it more than my own measly existance, I would do it again."

Makes me think they are possibly wolves together. Fea could be a sacrifice to get suspicions off of him.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-11-2009, 09:59 AM

I thought we were settled on me being a cobbler these days... :rolleyes:

If I'm a cobbler and I dreamed of Boro, I wouldn't bring attention to it. Or at least I'd try to make it look like something it wasn't, if I was forced to acknowledge him.

Does me saying Mith shouldn't kill you, Lari, because we had to talk you into it, suggest that I'm singling you out for dubious reasons? No, I just feel bad that our shenanigans might get you in trouble.

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-11-2009, 10:02 AM

I have to go, and won't be around for deadline, and I don't really want to frivolously repeal my vote, lest I get in more trouble.

*love you, Mith*

My advice to the village for after you kill me: look to those who react to everything. They're usually wolves.

Look for ones who look like wolves. They're usually not.

Don't mess this village up, it's too fun to watch.

Kath

01-11-2009, 10:03 AM

We really are very sorry Mith, blame the madness that falls when eight downers get together on MSN. And you have the prettiest nose of all as we all know.

Despite everything that happened earlier when we all worked together, it was an out of game discussion that led to it, not one of us mentioned a role.

Anyway, back to the real matters of toDay. I ought to have posted earlier but we ended up going shopping (I have new shoes!). I'm going to find some lunch now and then I'll be back to post so sorry Agan but you might have a late big post again.

Macalaure

01-11-2009, 10:03 AM

Unless you propose a double-lynch today, because whether Fea turns out critic or Walter, it won't change anything regarding Agan, and we'd essentially end up lynching her the next day anyway?

A double-lynch was exactly what I was proposing (I guess I wasn't clear enough - too early in the morning). If we only lynch Fea, we do what she wants us to (provided she really is the cobbler). We need to get rid of Fea in any case if we don't want our seer to turn in his grave, so why not lynch her and take the chance and try to lynch another baddie, too? The most likely candidate for that is Aganzir, of course, but I'd be willing to listen if someone suggests somebody better.

Aganzir

01-11-2009, 10:04 AM

Sorry Mith. Won't do it again. I can't deny it was fun though.

I'm not buying that, I'm afraid. It would have been a sloppy analysis if it paid no attention to this fact, but the rest of your analysis was not sloppy at all, so I suspect intent.
I can repeat it after the game.
Besides if an analysis is otherwise good, does it mean there can't be any sloppy bits?

On Aganzir suspecting Fea before: It could be (and is likely, I'd say) that Fea is the cobbler and Aganzir a critic, so that does not prove the innocence of either. Not to mention the critic-on-critic possibility.
I wasn't trying to prove my innocence with it, I was commenting on your post saying I started to suspect Fea only now to save my skin.

I agree with Boro about lynching Fea, especially if the other candidate is me. I'm gradually getting more afraid also of him though.

I'll try if I can come up with something regarding Mac before deadline.

edit: xed with two Feas, Kath & Mac

Boromir88

01-11-2009, 10:05 AM

Makes me think they are possibly wolves together. Fea could be a sacrifice to get suspicions off of him.~Lari
Or she's been ousted as a lover, and tgwbs devised a plan to set her up for a kill, so her other half can make the revenge kill. Because one half may just might be more powerful than the other - have you taken that into consideration? tgwbs can't know the specifics of the role, he just finds out who's who. Don't put it past the Moddess Mith to have a couple more tricks up her sleave. This isn't fear-mongering, just saying, don't get cocky, or think this one's in the bag, when we find out about Fea.

Ok, all kidding and outrageous theories aside, I have no association with Fea other than I will briefly mourn her passing as a beloved and respected singer, but know it was necessary as traitorous and deadly one. I suspect she thinks I walked right into he deceitful web, but the show has just begun. Wait and see who wins this chess game and a battle of wits. I'll let her have the queen, but it's going to cost her checkmate.

Edit: Crossed with everyone since Lari's post

Feanor of the Peredhil

01-11-2009, 10:07 AM

I'll miss you, darling.

satansaloser2005

01-11-2009, 10:08 AM

Well, then we're all safe, as none of us has a nose nearly as pretty as Mistress Mith's. (And we are sorry. We were talking about random stuff and it sounded like a fun plan to do at the time. :p)

Now back to business....

Okay, so I went through TGWBS' posts and was sad to come to much the same conclusion as everyone else. I wanted to come up with something new. *pouts*

He really doesn't have any evidence for Fea, but he's pretty set that she's a critic. Now, obviously it's possible that he just had a hunch, but between his various statements regarding Fea and how tricksy Fea is in general, I think we could safely get rid of her. (Though I also am suspicious of some others, which I will get to if I have time....I slept in a bit so I'm in a rush and wanted to get my vote in)

Smoke! Smoke! Sign of the devil, sign of the devil, set it on fire
Witch! Witch! Smell it sir, an evil smell, every night at the Vespers' bell,
Smoke that comes from the mouth of hell, set it on fire
MIschief, mischief! Mischief!

--Legate (if I seriously even need to do that, which I doubt. But to be safe....)

++Fea

EDIT: x'd with Boro and Agan and Fea. For Boro....(Sorry, if it's a bit off, I'm tired)
"You challenge me to a battle of wits?" *nod* "For the lynch?" *nod* "I accept."

Aganzir

01-11-2009, 10:10 AM

So Mac you want to double lynch Fea and someone? Sounds rather like it.

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

edit: xed with sally

satansaloser2005

01-11-2009, 10:16 AM

So Mac you want to double lynch Fea and someone? Sounds rather like it.

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

edit: xed with sally

I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the double lynch idea, no matter who it includes. (Obviously if I'm involved I'm all for it.... :p) We do double our chances of getting a baddie, but if we're wrong about Fea then we could potentially kill two more innocents. I'm not going to fight a double lynch, but I'd just like to express my opinion against the idea.

Awwww, poor Agan....scared of being double lynch fodder....

Nothing's going to harm you, not while I'm around....

Unless you're a critic or Walter, that is. Then it's a case of....

The lives of the wicked should be made brief
For the rest of us death will be a relief

*scampers off to listen and prepare for the rest of the day*

Lariren Shadow

01-11-2009, 10:19 AM

Boro, I've come to expect tricks but am I wrong in believing this:

The soulmates are not lovers in the usual sense .. both are ordos and they are not out for themselves. That is why I didn't call them lovers....:rolleyes:

So therefore the theory that Fea could be a soulmate and her soulmate could be something special doesn't really hold. Unless I shouldn't believe that.

Macalaure

01-11-2009, 10:21 AM

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

The more reason to try it. :p Whatever the outcome, it's gonna be fun. :D

Too bad Sally already used that Princess Bride quote. :D

Aganzir

01-11-2009, 10:24 AM

Sally is giving off ranger hints, eh? :p

So therefore the theory that Fea could be a soulmate and her soulmate could be something special doesn't really hold. Unless I shouldn't believe that.
Yes but if she's a soulmate and dies her mate would get a revenge kill.
I find it rather unlikely though that tgwbs would go like that against an innocent. It would be more efficient to declare her innocent so clearly that she'd die once tgwbs's role was revealed.

Boromir88

01-11-2009, 10:33 AM

If I'm a cobbler and I dreamed of Boro, I wouldn't bring attention to it. Or at least I'd try to make it look like something it wasn't, if I was forced to acknowledge him.~Fea
The critics lag one day behind in your information, also I would assume it would be a pretty nifty way to let them know "Hey I'm your spy! Don't kill me!" The cobbler usually is just as likely a wolf target as anyone else, but with the sneak ability, it's a clever way to key the critics into the fact that you're their cobbler.

I agree with Boro about lynching Fea, especially if the other candidate is me. I'm gradually getting more afraid also of him though.~Agan
Frightened Agan? If you be innocent you don't have to be. Believe that or not, your choice.

The most likely candidate for that is Aganzir, of course, but I'd be willing to listen if someone suggests somebody better.~Mac
And what if Fea has found the divo or one of the lovers? True, now that the Seer is gone, I think the Cobblers use is coming to an end, and maybe Fea is taking the noose for the critics.

But, a double lynch at this time could be dangerous, we were lucky on Day 1 it was only two ordos. I have no idea about Agan, considering what we have concluded about Fea, it doesn't look good that they were paired together by the seer. But we're talking about two dreams here, one we know was Fea, the other it's still up in there air. I'm not convinced he spotted two baddies in one night.

Also, let's be honest, we're talking about the other lynchee being Agan, who else are you willing to take a blind guess on? Strongbow? He's probably an Ordo. Maybe Cailin, she scares me. And now that Eomer's popped in and Legate's got votes - oh let's just get 'em all.

But anyway I hope you get the point, we have an hour and half left before the deadline. I say we take a sure shot with Fea, regroup, recharge, and definitely get more organized tomorrow. Trying a double lynch at this time, I think spells disaster.

Edit: x'ed and I mean "two baddies in two nights" not one. :rollseyes:

Aganzir

01-11-2009, 10:41 AM

Frightened Agan? If you be innocent you don't have to be. Believe that or not, your choice.
No it's just some things you've said and the way you've communicated with Fea. I would have to read your posts to elaborate on it, I'll do it some time later if need be. Now I'm busy with Mac.

Boromir88

01-11-2009, 10:51 AM

No it's just some things you've said and the way you've communicated with Fea. I would have to read your posts to elaborate on it, I'll do it some time later if need be.~Agan
I'll give you that, but try to distinguish between the communication of two people in cahoots. And the communication of somebody innocent who will miss Fea's spirit and passion, no matter what her role is. Whether baddie or not, Fea brings a chutzpah to opera that I will greatly miss, but that won't get in the way of what needs to be done.

P.S. Lari, my lovers thing was more of an outrageous, off-the-wall theory, and not to have been taken seriously at all. Sorry for the confusion.

P.P.S But not totally, think about it, once one soulmate dies, the other gets revenge killing power - thus making the revengeful soulmate more powerful than the other.

Kath

01-11-2009, 10:58 AM

And back.

Just a couple of notes on the most recent posts as I've just read them. Firstly I don't like that Fea has disappeared without voting. Yeah the Legate thing was stupid of us but if Mith decides to modfire that is up to her, and I think she would be far less cross if we then did something constructive rather than wussing out like Fea has seemed to do. I have been agreeing with those who think her suspicious based on tgwbs' posts but this to me makes her look supsicious on her own merits.

Also, a double lynch? I'm not sure that's a brilliant idea. We've already had one double lynch this game and it did us no good.

Aganzir

01-11-2009, 10:58 AM

I'll give you that, but try to distinguish between the communication of two people in cahoots. And the communication of somebody innocent who will miss Fea's spirit and passion, no matter what her role is.
No there were also some earlier things I noticed. I skimmed through her posts yesterday (at least I wasn't totally idle during that mad msn chat) to look at how she had communicated with people and there was something that set me off. Can't remember what it was though.

Deadline is quarter past again, right?

edit: xed with Kath

Boromir88

01-11-2009, 11:08 AM

Can't remember what it was though.~Agan
Do whatever you have to to save yourself tomorrow Agan. Throw whoever you have to under the semi, the means don't matter, I understand.

And as far as I know, we end on the dot today.

Edit: By "on the dot" I mean 6:15...on the dot. :p

Mithalwen

01-11-2009, 11:12 AM

Now I find your ridiculous behaviour was due to IM discussion I am absolutely ropeable. I really don't know what to do and am so close to pulling the plug on the whole thing you wouldn't believe.

How dare you!

Have you any idea how much of my time this takes up?

I am not joking now I really am furious.

satansaloser2005

01-11-2009, 11:13 AM

Blah. Looks like I'm around for the rest of the morning (by the time I made it into church it'd be mostly over anyway....I had some things to take care of that took longer than they were supposed to, gorrammit) so I may as well speak a bit more on the double lynching situation.

Here are the two(ish) people I would risk a double lynch with:
Gollum: he's not even pulling his weight in the village, and what he does say seems off to me
Cailin/Eomer: I feel awful saying this, but I just don't like them. (You know what I mean. My wording just sucks.) They haven't said a whole lot, but it's just one of those vibe....things....Also, I haven't seen much discussion about them so maybe putting them on my suspect list will at least get discussion going.

I also have a bad feeling about Mac, but to much less of an extent right now, so while I'm not going to ignore him, I don't want to lynch him toDay.

EDIT: x'd with Boro, who is correct about the DL as far as I know (and I meant to answer that question in my post but got distracted by shiny objects so thank you) and a very cross moddess. Is it okay to laugh at the fact that I crossed with someone cross? (Sorry, English major/generally dumb humor)

Kath

01-11-2009, 11:21 AM

Mith, we apologise unreservedly. Well I do, and I suspect the others think along the same lines. We weren't making a mockery of the game, we were just being silly.

I'm finding myself quite unaware of the time, I think it's because it's a Sunday. I'm going to vote.

- - LEGATE (just in case)

++FEA

For the reasons in my last post. From what tgwbs said it does look like her found her to be something, whether cobbler or wolf. The way she went off without voting makes it look like she's trying to play it safe which makes me think she might be the Cobbler - she doesn't know who the Critics are and doesn't want to commit either way.

I'm going to hang around, might go back and look the posts over again, but I wanted to vote now in case I lose track of time.

Mithalwen

01-11-2009, 11:22 AM

I need to think about this.

I didn't realise til now that this was the result of some off game plan rather than a spontaeneous thing. I am really upset, hurt and angry. At the moment I am not prepared to continue. I certainly can't make a decision which is fair to those who did not participate whenI am this angry. I wouldn't hold your breath.

Any comments in the meantime to the admin thread.

Brinniel

01-11-2009, 11:25 AM

It seems to start with Boromir who said this in one post:

I would prefer Ilya, Gollum, or Cailin, over Strongbow, sally, or Shasta, as far as submarines. [...]

I think Ilya is more likely to be a wolf than the other two I mentioned in the first sentence. It's arguable as to whether she's really submarine though, because she's posted the most out of them, but she's a submarine in the sense that she's going rather unnoticed.

As helpful as her quoting has been, it scares me, because it reminds me of so much of Brinn's strategy in The Republic. She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent. Also, I'm scratching my head as to what she saw from me to suspect Mac. Maybe it was from yesterday? The "oh and what Boro said about you too" is just - well suspicious.

On the flip side, Ilya would probably be the riskiest choice, and that is she will be participating more so than the other submarines. But, her behavior today seems to fit more with a Cobbler who could be posting a bunch of stuff and really not say anything about it. Plus saying some things that really don't make sense. Or a critic who saw how successful Brinn was with this strategy and tried the same.

Five minutes later, Fea lists who she's concerned about:

Concerned
Boro
Ilya
Gwath

Aganzir considers voting Ilya, though she's slightly hesitant:

I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them.

Then comes Mac who gives a whole post suspecting Ilya:

Some thoughts on Ilya, who recently rised in my suspicions.

Compare #195 to #223: First she doesn't know where the Nogrod case came from, then she says other people put suspicions against Nogrod (and Menel) in her mind and thus keeps herself out of the vote-fray. Also, first she considers voting Gollum for his case against Strongbow, then she votes Strongbow herself.

Today, while I appreciate all the work she put into all her quote-collections, I'm a bit unhappy with it because there's not much of her own opinions, which I consider more helpful about summary-posts than the summary. She does give her opinions later, but they are kind of simplistic putting-into-boxes like.

In #324 she defends Gwath in a not too convincing manner, which, since I'm suspicious of Gwath, makes me suspicious of her, too. There's also her point against me, which does not make a lot of sense, as Boro remarked, too.

If Ilya should be evil, I think a close look at Brinn might be justified - there seems to be a connection.

Fea comments:

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

Kath rushes in with comment about everyone, but votes Ilya:

Ilya - says Agan and Lariren started the suspicions against Nog. Has done nothing but post quotes. Now that can be helpful, but not when we get none of her own comments in there. Did post with her thoughts, but there is some really odd reasoning behind them. Why would killing phantom be something Strongbow would want to do over anyone else? If Lariren was 'just kind of agreeing' and then changed direction then why is that suspicious? It just feels suspicious. What was that about a 48 Day, as we didn't have one the Day before why would she assume it?

++ILYA

I'd like to have gone through a bit more thoroughly but from what I've seen so far I think that posting all the quotes and the voting tally is trying to look helpful while actually not being and that the reasoning behind her suspicions seems very odd.

Mac makes his vote:

I sense the danger of a last-minute bandwaggon against me, but since I can retract my vote if necessary, I'll vote now:

++Ilya

Clearly my top suspect right now, and there seems to be an actual chance to lynch her today, so no reason to hesitate for me.

(One thing: Why did he worry a last-minute bandwagon would go against him? The only one I saw who suspected him was Aganzir. Nervous much?)

Agan votes:

I think I'm voting

++Ilya

too. Besides if her role is revealed I'll have some actual evidence concerning Mac.

Fea builds a case against Ilya:

I was flipped out by Ilya's quote lists mostly because when I see quotes in anything I'm reading, I have a nasty habit of skipping them, because most of the time when something I read has a quoted off section like that, it's written in a language I don't know. Consequently, posts that consist almost entirely of quotes tend to completely throw me off because

1) the person looks like they're making points, but in reality they're just copy/pasting other people's out-of-context comments

2) my brain is conditioned to all but ignore them anyway (this is probably a trait singular to me, as it's caused by reading massive amounts of art and lit theory).

Basically, when I saw the lists of quotes, I harkened back to Freshman Writing Class and thought "Okay, so you filled up page space. What's your point?" I was bothered that Ilya didn't have an argument that she was supporting, instead it seemed like she was just organizing.

Which while I admit that I OCD adore organizing, I kept waiting and waiting for some sort of reasoning as to what Ilya actually thought, as opposed to what Ilya's organization skills are.

I was thrown off wholly by having to sit my way through what felt like a lot of carefully wasted space without having the payoff of Ilya actually giving us anything personal to go on.

It's like judging the opinion of somebody who's reading a script, you know? I want your own words, not somebody else's.

Probably why I write the stuff I do, and ignore the stuff with MLA citations...

I apologize that this looks like a bandwagon last minute, but I'm also not willing to cause a double lynch (or even get close) today by voting Gwath (plus I don't have time to substantiate any arguments)

so

++Ilya

Boromir votes:

There will be at least another. I was with-holding for reasons I don't care to explain, as it seems unecessary now.

++Ilya

The Ilya bandwagon occurred in the last hour and a half...and some of it seems artificial to me. At least one evil player was involved, I'm sure, if not more.

Boromir looks the most innocent of those. He's the first to consider Ilya, and his thought process looks genuine as he brings up both the ups and downs of voting her.

Fea is quick to echo anyone who suspects Ilya, then builds a huge case against her at the last-minute in an effort to justify her vote. Seems suspicious to me.

Aganzir suddenly considers Ilya after everyone else does. On one hand, the fact that she's more hesitant makes her look more innocent. But then again, she could easily be bluffing since she knows any hesitation might make her look better.

Mac is the first to dedicate a whole post against Ilya. I would say his jumping the bandwagon look most suspicious of the bunch.

Kath is the first to actually vote Ilya, but only after suspicion against her has already begun. I'd say she looks more innocent because she was obviously in a rush when making the post; I don't know how much of the current discussion she had in mind at the time. Also, she didn't know deadline had been extended 15 minutes.

PS: Mith, we all truly apologise for the whole vote. We really weren't trying to upset you. :(

EDIT: X-posted