T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Mithalwen]

This (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uUEbgNS15dw) is carthartic ...


"See the little goblin, see his little feet , And his little nosey-wosey -- isn't the goblin sweet?"

... I'm sure there was something very important I had to do to all of you this morning.


Oh just get on with it....:Merisu:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not going to be around much today. Don't take it personally, I'm just in the mood for a day off too after the events of yesterday.

--Legate,

in case that was needed.

[Boromir88]

Understandable Fea, anyone take some time, take a breather.

But don't let this hang over your head like a black cloud, and mope around. It's done, it's past, can't change it, but we can change the mood and game play in the following days. We owe it to our Mith to make this an opera that's worth an encore.

[Lariren Shadow]

Ok back in the game.


(One thing: Why did he worry a last-minute bandwagon would go against him? The only one I saw who suspected him was Aganzir. Nervous much?)

Not really true, I did too.

List that I made yesterday:

Sally: Still seems innocent. Nothing really much else except adding to who should be double lynched with Fea today(if she gets lynched and if it’s a double lynch). Not really anything too off about that.

Fea: Well it would be silly to say anything besides she’s guilty. Clearly. She even admits to it(sort of, in her own way). So lynching her today would not be a bad choice.

Brinn: Still innocent to me. Nothing really more to say on that one.

Kath: Again innocent, nothing against her at all.

Agan: I’m leaning towards innocent but still keeping my eye on her. She’s a good player from what I’ve heard and read that makes me think she could have something up her sleeve.

Gwath: Has said nothing today. Either he’s busy in RL or he’s a critic trying not to be anywhere near Fea at all. Biding his time and trying to regroup. Or he could just have been busy on a Friday and Saturday.

Shasta: Hasn’t said much today either. I still have my suspicions of him and his absence adds to them like Gwath’s. I would really like to hear more from both of them though, not sure if that’s enough to add their names to the lynch pile with Fea’s.

Strongbow: Where oh where can Strongbow be? Nowhere to be seen. Nothing at all so I have no idea. I wouldn’t mind, however, voting Strongbow off in a double lynch, mostly because Strongbow hasn’t said anything.

Mac: Still has my suspicions but not as bad as before. His involvement in the Ilya vote was interesting though. There were only two of us(Agan and myself) who considered his suspicious.

Gollum: Has posted a few things today but really hasn’t said much at all. I wish he would say more but is on my list of possible people to lynch if a double lynch is called for.

Boro: Has officially become suspicious to me because of all of his talk with Fea and secret code and warnings and such. It just doesn’t feel right or what someone innocent would do.

Cailin: Still hasn’t said but that’s been how they’ve played the whole time. They don’t seem guilty at all.

That's it for now, I should reevaluate by the end of toDay though.

[Mithalwen]

There is no need to withdraw the spoof votes. I really don't want to see that name again on this thread.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But don't let this hang over your head like a black cloud, and mope around.

Oh don't worry. Part of me being distant is to take a quick breather and get some different perspective. Most of it is because I've got international guests at the moment, on top of work and classes, and I want to make sure nobody in RL gets short changed, and that any conflicts are dealt with diplomatically. Anybody who follows my blog and caught the recent long post has an idea of what I'm up against.

But don't worry, I'll check in and keep up with what's going on, I'm just busy today.

[Mithalwen]

Well there is now plenty of time. you have over 24 hours still so hopefully by the end of this game day it will be all water under the bridge.

[Aganzir]

Hi I'm here. I'm not feeling too good, either, but given how little I've been able to participate thus far, I'm going to try to be of some help at least now.

Do whatever you have to to save yourself tomorrow Agan. Throw whoever you have to under the semi, the means don't matter, I understand.
I certainly hope my points are at least considered if I happen to die.

I don't understand what this talk about double lynch is. Just because Fea is most likely a baddie, do we have to take a risk of lynching an innocent as well (and I'm not speaking only about a double lynch I'd be a part of)? Or is it the critics trying to minimize their loss? I think Mac is behind the suggestion and it doesn't make me feel any better about him.

Aganzir suddenly considers Ilya after everyone else does.
Yes after I decided to vote a quieter/less substantial player if I couldn't find reasons to justify a vote for someone else.

Not really true, I did too.
Still I don't think two people are enough to cause a bandwagon when there are still so many people alive.

I don't think anyone has ever used deliberate absence as a tactic to go unnoticed - quiet players are usually quiet by their nature or RL hurries, not because they want to avoid attention. However I don't like it how many usually loud people are so silent now.

So the day continues another 24 hours, does it?

++Fea

edit: xed with Mith, Fea & Mith who already answered my question

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well there is now plenty of time. you have over 24 hours still so hopefully by the end of this game day it will be all water under the bridge.

Water's back there, somewhere. *gestures back thataway*

And the bridge in question is... I dunno. Out of sight. :) Hug?

*disappearing off to try to zen away the past week's stress*

[Aganzir]

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.

He suspected Menel for being too careful based on the three two-liners he had posted. I didn't find Menel suspicious then nor did I now that I read through his posts so I don't really see where Mac's coming from. Besides Menel is a rather easy day 1 target.
He found everyone more or less innocent (or unknown) but Brinn and me who Rikae warned him about, and Menel. I don't like his Menel suspicion very much. It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.

In the post where he said he has to vote soon he also said this:
Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour? ;)
It trips my radar. It looks like what a wolf could say as they know most people (excluding the cobbler whom they don't want to kill) are innocent yet need to come up with proper suspicions. Saying that doesn't make Mac a wolf but it's scary nonetheless.

When tgwbs agreed with Mac about Menel being too careful but accused Mac of carefulness & not explaining his thought process at the same time, he replied:
What thought process? ;)
I don't think I would have been suspicious of this otherwise but Boro accused me the same a while ago because Macwolf had done it. However I think our cases were different - I denied having a case against someone as I had merely been bringing up points against them while commenting on the day's happenings (plus there was a whole lot of misunderstanding concerning which post was talked about), but here Mac denies having any thought process as for why Menel seemed careful. Yes it's sometimes hard to elaborate, especially if it's a gut feeling, but he could at least have tried instead of downplaying suspicions like that.

He voted Menel with the resolution he had shown since the beginning. It looks like he had just in the beginning decided to chase Menel because he was easy enough.

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*
Okay then there's this. He explained it was a half-joke already but still I don't like it, just because I can remember a couple of Macwolves having the same I-told-you attitude.

He apologized Menel, saying he sounded very innocent later with his responses to Mac's vote. For the reference, here are all Menel's posts after Mac's vote: 170 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580084&postcount=170), 177 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580091&postcount=177), 187 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580102&postcount=187), 203 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580118&postcount=203). What exactly made him sound more innocent there?

Mac asked Boro why he thought his vote for Menel was an easy way to slide by the day. At least I had no problems realising what Boro meant.

He analysed day 1's votes. I won't bother quoting the whole thing here but if someone wants to see it, here's a link (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580304&postcount=277). I disagree on sally's retraction being somehow innocent-looking. Also a baddie would do it to avoid suspicion.
I don't understand this:
Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.
Just what's the point in saying the part after the comma? I think it should be self-evident anyway, and besides he couldn't know if my suspicions were fabricated until either I was dead or my role revealed by the seer so I can see no reason why he said it unless to keep some random suspicion on me.

When I said I was growing suspicious of him because of those comments, he replied vaguely:
But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...
This doesn't actually even answer to the thing I said, ie that he reminded me of a wolfish Mac. He just circumvents the question by saying that as a wolf he tries to be just like when innocent. So what? Maybe it's just bad luck on my part but I can't remember any innocent Mac saying the things that first set off my alarm.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still. I don't know if he just found me innocent or if he wanted to avoid attention (not that he'd be afraid of me but negative attention is negative attention and can work as a foundation for larger suspicion). I can remember an innocent Mac retaliating to my suspicions, but I also remember an innocent Mac finding the ever-suspicious me innocent.

On day 2 she found Fea's vote suspicious bet decided to let her be because he thought phantom would figure her out sooner or later. He also found Brinn's vote suspicious and said he was a bit suspicious of tgwbs earlier but his posts since had looked innocent.
He thought Boro was innocentish and commented on his vote for Mac by 'Fair reasoning, fair placement.'

His main suspect was Gwath. After having a look at him he concluded that he has posted very little of substance and wondered if a critic tried to appear more helpful. He found Gwath's vote careless because of getting the bandwagon rolling. Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari. Should he have voted her then, or come up with someone completely different? And what does it matter if he gets the bandwagon rolling? At least someone he suspected got lynched, and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote. Mac is right, though, that Gwath didn't post about anyone else but those two. Nonetheless, Gwath as well as Menel are always rather easy to suspect, and I can't say I particularly like Mac gunning for those.

Of Ilya (whom he later ended up voting) he had nothing to say except that she had too many quotes. He also found her vote a throwaway. As the day went on Ilya started having some suspicions against Mac on grounds that weren't the best I've seen, which partly explains his later decision to vote her.

As for Mac's vote analysis, I think somebody also mentioned it but he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later. Nog's innocence doesn't make those people innocent and I can see no reason to exclude the saving attempt from the analysis.
Also, why did my vote placement look evil? Because I voted after other people had said they didn't want Nog lynched?

Later on day 2 his main suspects were Fea and Gwath and he was also suspicious of Ilya and Brinn. If you don't count the throwaway vote thing, he didn't give proper reasons for suspecting Ilya until later.
I think we must wait till Fea's role is revealed to get a clear image of his suspicion. Wolf-on-wolf (or wolf-on-cobbler) is a possibility, especially if they had a reason to assume Fea had been dreamed of. I would imagine a cobbler Fea to be rather good at making her identity known to the wolves and a wolfish Mac to be quite good at catching the hints, and in that light his Fea suspicion could be an honest one. More on that after Fea's death.

Some twenty minutes before deadline Mac posted a small case against Ilya. I could agree with it but there were some things I don't really like. He found her not too convincing defence of Gwath suspicious because he was also suspicious of Gwath. Here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580387&postcount=324)'s Ilya's defence he was referring to. Of course I now have the benefit of knowing Ilya was innocent, but I don't think her comment was suspicious.
What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?

He voted Ilya on day 2, saying he could sense a last-minute bandwagon against him. I'm not going back to check every post from day 2 but as far as I'm aware only Ilya and me considered voting him seriously. Wolves usually tend to overestimate the amount of suspicion against them and that comment doesn't feel very good.

After some day 1 suspicion against Mac, tgwbs moved him gradually towards his innocent category which could speak in favour of Mac. However he was still listed as somewhat suspicious at the beginning of the day although not very close to the most suspicious end. In an earlier post tgwbs had said he didn't find Mac especially suspicious.
Dreaming of an innocent Mac might explain tgwbs's suspicion against me. On day 1 he called my points against Mac good whereas on day 2 he didn't like my suspicions against him anymore. There are many other dream candidates, though, but his opinion makes me feel a bit more uncertain about Mac.

In his analysis of tgwbs's posts, Mac reached the conclusion that he had probably dreamed of Fea and me and found us both baddies. Of course I am biased when talking about this as I am pretty certain of my own innocence, but I think he seems to be a bit too quick to jump to conclusions, being even ready to suggest a double lynch.
However, he definitely dreamt of Fea. Anything else is inconceivable. It is also quite inconceivable that tgwbs wrote one known-to-him baddie on the same line with an only suspected baddie. Therefore:

Night 1: Fea
Night 2: Aganzir
And by the way, there's still a chance he didn't dream of Fea but was just suspicious of her for other reasons (and was probably right). I don't know how likely that is but there is no way he could say for certain that I'm a baddie, and his putting me together with Fea makes me think he didn't dream of her either. Just because I don't think either that any seer would ever say a dreamed of baddie and someone not dreamed of are equally suspicious. You can call this a poor try if you wish but you shall see, you shall see.

Mac has been pursuing the Fea-and-Agan-are-guilty thing the whole day. He said if Fea and I are fellows I let go of Fea to save myself. Not exactly true because I found her suspicious already yesterday (to which Mac answers by saying it could be wolf-on-wolf). Also, he didn't believe me when I told I hadn't really comprehended tgwbs seemed to suspect me and the likely dreamed of baddie Fea just as much, and said omitting it from my post & pretending tgwbs didn't think so & hoping no one else would notice it was what he'd do as a wolf. Well, I was telling the truth. I'm not perfect believe it or not.

Mac accused Boro of being either malevolent or blinded by tgwbs's headache-talk for suggesting his first dream might not have been a wolf. I think he's overreacting. It's a bit dangerous to be so sure he's right. He wants to get Fea and me lynched and is rather persuasive about it - I think he looks too certain to be innocent. And if Fea is the cobbler she's done her duty or is needed no more & can be sacrificed since the critics already killed the seer.

Given the evidence against you, a genuine statement of innocence and surprise would probably have been the only thing that could have saved you. Now only a miracle could. ;)
Does that apply to me as well? I can tell you why I didn't make a genuine statement of innocence & surprise after tgwbs's death - it never occurred to me that he could have dreamed of me since he was suspicious of me. You're accusing Fea of that but what if she's innocent and thought the same as I did? And regardless of Fea's role I don't like that accusation. If she had actually done it you'd be saying now, 'She's Fea, she can easily pull that off. I would be much more willing to believe her if she wasn't trying to convince us about her innocence now.'

If there was any doubt about Fea being tgwbs's dream, Mac countered it eg by asking how the seer could have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched. His certainty about Fea's guilt added to his willingness to double lynch don't look very good on him. It looks as if he actually knows Fea is a baddie and wants the result of the lynch to not be too bad for his team. There are after all rather high chances that the other lynchee would be innocent.
He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.

In Mac's opinion I would be a good double lynch candidate along with Fea, but he's also willing to listen if someone comes up with someone better. So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch? If he really thought tgwbs had dreamed of me & found me guilty, wouldn't he be much more enthusiastic about getting me lynched? Yes I know it would be difficult to organize a double lynch but still. Or is he just wavering because he knows I'm innocent?

All in all I'm feeling quite bad about Mac.

I have a feeling I'm getting flu & I'm quite tired so I'm going to sleep.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.

[Macalaure]

All quotes by Aganzir.

I don't understand what this talk about double lynch is. Just because Fea is most likely a baddie, do we have to take a risk of lynching an innocent as well (and I'm not speaking only about a double lynch I'd be a part of)?
Risk? Chance!

Since Fea is a goner, we have the chance to lynch another baddie as well. Might go wrong, sure, but so can every lynch.

We are given an opportunity here and we should seize it!

Still I don't think two people are enough to cause a bandwagon when there are still so many people alive.
Ilya did, too. In fact, the way she voiced her suspicions against me was what got me on her track and made me take a close look at her on which I saw a couple of suspicious things which made me vote her. Also, I consider Boro to be a Mac-vote waiting to happen. ;)

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.
Rikae was more or less looking over my shoulder and told me this and that, so I saw no reason not to mention that. Has nothing to do with my role.

It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.
I didn't point it out because I thought it to be obvious: the reason to leave that I had was RL. My suspicion of Menel was not much indeed, but all that I could come up with. Any other vote would have been random.

The "Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?" meant that I was largely clueless and was joking about somebody to please be obviously suspicious before I had to vote half an hour later. I seriously fail to see the scariness of that.

but here Mac denies having any thought process
You can't seriously take my jokes and hold them against me as evidence... sheesh

What exactly made him sound more innocent there?
No particular quote, just the way he retaliated his suspicion and vote. Seemed very innocent.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still.
Had nothing to do with their size, but whether they appeared to be honest and genuine. They seemed so to me, so I had no reason to counter the suspicion.

Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari.
Yes, but, no offense, both suspicions were very weak. The carelessness was, in my opinion, that he didn't try harder to look for suspects. It's kind of hilarious that you accuse me of doing what defend Gwath for doing to a much larger extent.

and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote.
That is most certainly wrong.

he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later.
I did. I considered it innocentish, but I found that so obvious that I didn't use many words and had to elaborate later.

What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?
Some of the things she found suspicious of others could have been applied to Brinn, too, but weren't. That made me suspicious. If you want me to, I can elaborate.

I think he's overreacting.
I was. I had just finished my analysis and then saw one that came to the opposite conclusion and ignored an important possibility (Fea=cobbler).

He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.
That's not the actual justification, just and additional point. She is almost certainly evil, and if she's the cobbler, we basically end up wasting a lynch, which is right up the cobbler's alley.

So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch?
Of course not. I want to double lynch the person that we consider most likely to be a critic. I think that is you, but if the other singers think otherwise (unless, of course, I really think that person is innocent) I'd be willing to give it a shot with him. We have a very good chance to lynch two baddies at once. We should take it.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.
Very, very much appreciated! :) It was fun to read and write these replies, though their length is unworthy of the analysis they are replying to.

You look neither more nor less suspicious to me than before. Your analysis has a few very good points and it often goes way past it's mark. Your analysis is clearly not unbiased, but I'm not holding that against you. If I were innocent and in your position, I would not be able to analyse the person who wants to double-lynch me objectively either.

I still want to double-lynch you :p, but I rather doubt it's going to happen.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I would just like to say...

I would very much appreciate if you didn't lynch me.

That is all.

[the phantom]

All right.

According to what we have from TGWBS, if we lynch Fea and she is innocent, we assume that neither Fea nor Agan was dreamt guilty, but rather that Boro and Kath or Boro and I were dreamt innocent.

If Fea is guilty, we assume that she was a dream. The next question- does the Fea-Agan pairing on one single line dictate that we should certainly lynch Agan next, or should we assume that it was a way to throw the baddies off the scent, and that the other dream was actually innocent (me, or perhaps Boro)?

[the phantom]

Boro- hope you enjoyed the football over the weekend. And I hope you enjoy this news report (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOdETPzz7vo). :D

[Gollum the Great]

Why is it that most everyone thinks Fea is a critic?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.

[the phantom]

Here are the votes from the first two days. Someone with time might want to go through the thread to make sure this is right. I trusted the summaries of others to get these and I had to edit a couple of errors. We'll see if it's correct now.

DAY 1 VOTES
CailEom ++Nog
Mac ++Menel
Nog ++sally
Gwath ++Nog (2)
Shasta ++tgwbs
tgwbs ++Fea
Lari ++Ilya
Menel ++Mac
Fea ++Menel (2)
Boro ++Mac (2)
Brinn ++Nog (3)
Kath ++Ilya (2)
Sally ++Nog (4)
Ilya ++Strongbow
Phantom ++Menel (3)
Boro --Mac (1)
Boro ++Menel (4)
Aganzir ++Nog (5)
TGWBS --Fea (0)
TGWBS ++Menel (5)

LATE
Sally --Nog (4)
Sally ++Menel (6)

NO VOTE
Strongbow
Gollum

**********

DAY 2 VOTES
Brinn ++Gollum
Sally ++Gollum (2)
TGWBS ++Fea
Kath ++Ilya
Mac ++Ilya (2)
Agan ++Ilya (3)
Fea ++Ilya (4)
Boro ++Ilya (5)
Lari ++Shasta

LATE
Gwath ++Sally
Ilya ++Gollum (3)
Ilya --Gollum (2)
Ilya ++Mac

NO VOTE
Shasta
Bowie
Gollum
CailEom

[Gollum the Great]

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.

That sounds like a slender reed on which to unload suspicion, but I really can't say I got anything better to suggest. However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
Gollum
Mac
***************
Lariren-Strongbow-Gwath-Cailineomer
***************
Ilya
Shastanis
Sally
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

That was TGWBW's last list.

[Boromir88]

Boro- hope you enjoyed the football over the weekend. And I hope you enjoy this news report.~tp
Haha, love it. It was a pretty good week. Arizona is a good story, but too bad that means they will get blown out of the water either in the championship or super bowl.

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?~Gollum
Oh it's much worse than that for Fea. tgwbs voted for her twice, referred to her as a critic I don't know how many times, and when he wasn't calling her a critic he said she was tricksy and up to no good. Either tgwbs is a vindictive seer that just wants to make Fea's singing career go down the toilet, or he dreamt her as the cobbler, or a critic.

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.~Fea
If tgwbs turned out any other role besides the seer, I could agree with that. But you gonna be toast.

Boro: Has officially become suspicious to me because of all of his talk with Fea and secret code and warnings and such. It just doesn’t feel right or what someone innocent would do.~Lari
Partly accurate, and that is I'm having fun with Fea. So, I chatter with her, and probably will continue to do so, and I'll miss her presense here. What was it that I told Menel, ahh don't let emotions get in the way of common sense judgement...same difference here - the chatter won't get in the way of business.

I do hope after this day is over, you take the night, to not only consider who you choose for a kill (it would be a wasted choice on me, just giving you a heads up ;) ), but look over this Fea-Boro talk and come to a different conclusion. Because before you consider using this little interaction between Fea and myself, be prepared to have it thrown back at you, and I guarantee you will be lynched before me. Not saying don't try it, just saying before you do, make sure you want to and definitely...Be Prepared.

Also, I consider Boro to be a Mac-vote waiting to happen. ;)~Mac
Well now that you bring it up, why delay the inevitable? We can always get Fea tomorrow right? If you want to make an exit, I'll assist in whatever way I can. ;)

[Gwathagor]

Hey sorry I haven't been around yet toDay. I was flying and unpacking and similar things to begin with and then there was the whole...thing. But I'm here now and I'll try to catch up.

[Gwathagor]

Well I read most of page 10 (I think?).

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.

Anyway, I'll vote in 7 hours or something when I wake up. I feel like reading pages 11 and 12, but I really have to go to bed. I have to get up early tomorrow.

[Gollum the Great]

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

And I'm not trying to throw suspicion here on you, Gwath, I'm just questioning your point.

[Aganzir]

Since Fea is a goner, we have the chance to lynch another baddie as well. Might go wrong, sure, but so can every lynch.
And the odds that it goes wrong are bigger than that we get it right, and since it's the critics who will most likely benefit from it, I have a very hard time trying to see your suggestion as an innocent one.
Plus, we don't know if people will get modfired for not participating.

Ilya did, too.
Oh yes she did. But it doesn't change the fact that three people voicing suspicion against you are not that big of a threat, especially if there are also people who consider you innocent or don't want you lynched around, which makes you look slightly overreactive. I wouldn't count Boro when thinking about people who suspected you back then.

I didn't point it out because I thought it to be obvious: the reason to leave that I had was RL.
Whoops sorry I realised that, it was just badly phrased. It should have been It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote without any actual reasons before leaving..

The "Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?" meant that I was largely clueless and was joking about somebody to please be obviously suspicious before I had to vote half an hour later. I seriously fail to see the scariness of that.
I don't because that's what wolves can think rather often and I wouldn't put it past you to say it aloud.

You can't seriously take my jokes and hold them against me as evidence... sheesh
I take everything I find suspicious, don't care if they're jokes or not. Besides sometimes it's hard to distinguish a joke from a serious statement, and later it would be easy to downplay suspicions against these things by saying they're jokes.

Yes, but, no offense, both suspicions were very weak. The carelessness was, in my opinion, that he didn't try harder to look for suspects. It's kind of hilarious that you accuse me of doing what defend Gwath for doing to a much larger extent.
I haven't concentrated on Gwath at all thus far so I don't know about him. However, I think the way you did it was different. Maybe Gwath didn't try very hard to look for suspects, but you just decided in the beginning that Menel was suspicious and went along those lines for the whole day. When speaking about Gwath as a player, I think he's quite often like that, so I find you more suspicious.

That is most certainly wrong.
Someone would have voted him anyway.
Okay, when saying Nog would probably have been lynched even without Gwath's vote, I forgot the Nog saving attempt. I just thought he would have gathered quite a lot votes nonetheless. However I don't think Gwath could foresee the bandwagon.

Some of the things she found suspicious of others could have been applied to Brinn, too, but weren't. That made me suspicious. If you want me to, I can elaborate.
I would like to see them.

She is almost certainly evil, and if she's the cobbler, we basically end up wasting a lynch, which is right up the cobbler's alley.
Even more so if we double lynch her and an innocent.

If I were innocent and in your position, I would not be able to analyse the person who wants to double-lynch me objectively either.
It's not just that you want to double lynch me, it's that you want to double lynch at all. The chances that it would benefit us are so slim.

**

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?
The only thing is, I'm not guilty.

Because before you consider using this little interaction between Fea and myself, be prepared to have it thrown back at you, and I guarantee you will be lynched before me. Not saying don't try it, just saying before you do, make sure you want to and definitely...Be Prepared.
Ooh he's singing my favourite song! :p
Anyway I'm planning to look up the things I found weird at some point but I'm not sure if it should be done only after Fea's death because it would make the task rather easier. Especially if she for some reason turns out to be innocent.

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.
How come you're so sure? You know, there's this risk tgwbs didn't actually dream of us. Double lynching Fea and me would not buy the innocents another day, it would take one away.

Hey critics I hope you're enjoying yourselves. :p

[Aganzir]

Guilty
Fea. Time will tell for sure.
Mac. See case (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580884&postcount=510) against him.

Innocent
Lari. If she's a wolf she's so totally awesome she deserves to win.
Brinn. Feeling rather good about her. She's reasonable.
Boro. I noticed something I found weird in his communication with Fea when reading her posts earlier, but I'm not going to hold it against him as long as we don't know Fea's role for sure & I haven't checked what it was.

Neither
sally. I will probably have to take a look at her posts at some point, not because I would find her especially suspicious but because I have no idea about her.
Kath. I'm leaning towards innocent but I'll read through her posts once before deciding anything.
Shasta. Where is he? Five posts.
Strongbow. Where on earth is he? Five posts, his last one is from the beginning of day 2.
Gollum. No idea.
Cailíneomer. Six posts.

[Macalaure]

I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious."

That is a good point actually.

And the odds that it goes wrong are bigger than that we get it right, and since it's the critics who will most likely benefit from it, I have a very hard time trying to see your suggestion as an innocent one.

The odds that it goes wrong are the same. Fea is almost certainly evil of some sort, and the second candidate has the same chances that the one candidate tomorrow has. Chances of getting one baddie: very high. Chances of getting two baddies: almost the same as getting one baddie on any other day.

And that's not even counting the higher probability of you being a baddie derived from tgwbs's information.

But it doesn't change the fact that three people voicing suspicion against you are not that big of a threat, especially if there are also people who consider you innocent or don't want you lynched around, which makes you look slightly overreactive.

I don't know about you, but if three or possibly more people consider voting me short before the deadline, then I do get a bit nervous. Once somebody has three votes, he easily attracts more.

I would like to see them.

I'll try to come up with them later again if I have time.

[Gwathagor]

Gwath, you say that we kill Agan and Fea but not in a double-lynch. Why? It would enable us to dispose of two birds with one stone, and buy us another day. It does- I admit- look like a risk, but a calculated risk and worth a shot.

And I'm not trying to throw suspicion here on you, Gwath, I'm just questioning your point.

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.

[Gwathagor]

I have to vote now, unfortunately. I'm not really sure who's voted for who at this point since I missed a lot, but I'm going to vote

++Aganzir

Because 1) we owe it to ourselves and our seer to go after either her or Fea, and 2) I see pretty strong evidence that tgwbs may have dreamt of Aganzir on Night 2 (I think it is) as I stated in my post #521.

[Lariren Shadow]

If I have time at some point today I shall look over the posts between Fea and Boro since the beginning but there is a high probability that I won't be able to get in before the vote deadline.


++ Fea

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Will be in classes all day, so...

++Aganzir

I would just like to take another chance now to politely ask that you reconsider your suspicions of me. You know, just because.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, I'm off to work but just wanted to say this.

Gwath makes an excellent point about TGWBS possibly dreaming Agan. I would be amenable to lynching her toDay as well. Which is to say that I'm okay with a Fea lynch OR an Agan lynch, but I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double. Besides, I don't think enough people support it for it to be a good idea.



That is all. See you (hopefully) toMorrow.

[Cailín]

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly. If Fea is guilty, the reasonable thing to do is to lynch Aganzir the day after. If Miss Peredhil is not guilty (which pretty much everyone agrees is not very likely), we shall still be nervous about Aganzir till the end of our days. Let's clean this mess and catch up on those critics.

++Aganzir

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

[Boromir88]

Chances of getting two baddies: almost the same as getting one baddie on any other day.~Mac
And the chances of making a disastrous lynch (i.e. by lynching one of the remaining gifteds - sorry Agan, someone had to say it) offsets that chance of getting two with one. Don't get greedy.

[Cailín]

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

[Boromir88]

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.~Cailin
Thanks for leaving us that, I trust because of it the critics will give you a gruesome and terrifying death.

I doubt I'll be back for the rest of the day, so...

++Fea

Don't double-lynch, that's what I'll leave you with.

[Aganzir]

Sally looks rather innocent. There's just the way she changed her opinion on Menel on day 1 because he retaliated Mac's suspicion by voting him that looks odd, but then again when she said it, also her earlier main suspect Nog had votes. So it doesn't look like jumping on bandwagon. And her reasoning sounds innocentish.
I don't think that her willingness to prevent a double lynch makes her look more innocent, but it doesn't make her look more suspicious either. Also a critic would have reasons to avoid double lynch even if a fellow wasn't involved - just to look good.
Her Gollum vote doesn't look very good given that first Brinn voted him randomly and then sally. Her reasoning is okay though - that Gollum didn't try to prevent a double lynch but refrained from voting.

Kath was planning to vote for Fea already on day 1 but voted Ilya. Overall she looks quite innocent too.

Gwath I think you were more sensible when you were still wavering about the double lynch. The wolves are the only ones who will benefit from it.

I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double.
Me neither, especially as it was Fea, not me, after whom tgwbs was all the time. That's why I don't understand why people (eg Cailín) seem to be willing to lynch me today and Fea only tomorrow. Besides if she's the cobbler it would be important to get rid of her as soon as possible even though the seer isn't alive anymore.

Cailín's vote makes me feel worse about her. I admit being biased and I might do the same if I was innocent and there were two people of whom it looked like the seer had dreamed, but here the only problem is that at least one of these people is innocent, and in addition to me only the wolves know it. That's why I can see the wolves as the most likely speakers in favour of a double lynch.

i.e. by lynching one of the remaining gifteds - sorry Agan, someone had to say it
It's alright, I doubt anyone would believe me or the wolves kill me even if I said I was a gifted.

Why is it so quiet?

[Macalaure]

This next post will be grossly generalising and depending on the roles of people who live, but maybe still worth something.

Case 1: Aganzir is a critic - how would the other critics react to the double-lynch idea? They certainly don't want it to happen, but not at all cost. They know one thing: Aganzir will be dead before the end. If we don't lynch her today, we will lynch her tomorrow or once we run out of other suspects. She will under no circumstances make it til the end. Therefore, she is not worth getting yourself into trouble for. The reaction I'm looking for: carefulness, saying that Aganzir is probably evil, maybe even adding points to it, but trying to dissuade from a double-lynch, as sneaky as possible. Sure, they could be against it more openly, or try to make themselves look good by wanting to lynch her, but I've got the feeling that the described way is a good place to find a critic - in this case.

Case 2: Aganzir is not a critic - how would the critics react then? They are for it. Definitely. How strongly? Well, they have the seer to hide behind and they have me as the prime scapegoat if it goes wrong. I'm looking for those who are for it but immediately provide a possible excuse for tomorrow. Of course, they could think that it is dangerous to burn one's fingers in this, but the circumstances are very promising.


And now let us see:

Lari

Doesn't say anything for a very long time. Fea is clearly guilty to her and she leans innocent for Aganzir, which is surprising clear. Guilty Aganzir still points towards her guilt. She votes for Fea, of course.

Boro

Unless you propose a double-lynch today, because whether Fea turns out critic or Walter, it won't change anything regarding Agan, and we'd essentially end up lynching her the next day anyway?
Note that Boro didn't say a word about double-lynching until he himself had a look at Aganzir.

And what if Fea has found the divo or one of the lovers? True, now that the Seer is gone, I think the Cobblers use is coming to an end, and maybe Fea is taking the noose for the critics.

But, a double lynch at this time could be dangerous, we were lucky on Day 1 it was only two ordos. I have no idea about Agan, considering what we have concluded about Fea, it doesn't look good that they were paired together by the seer. But we're talking about two dreams here, one we know was Fea, the other it's still up in there air. I'm not convinced he spotted two baddies in one night.

...

But anyway I hope you get the point, we have an hour and half left before the deadline. I say we take a sure shot with Fea, regroup, recharge, and definitely get more organized tomorrow. Trying a double lynch at this time, I think spells disaster.
The many (likely and unlikely) options he presents look suspicious if Aganzir is a critic. His clear stance against it (which he continues later) makes him look innocent again, because I doubt a companion of Aganzir would try to buy her just one more day that openly.

Gollum

Thoroughly confused while trying to catch up, which looks good for him in either way. Then:

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?
Might be I'm not entirely objective, but I think he sounds innocent. He later justly criticises Gwath for his post (below).

Brinn

I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt.
A guilty Aganzir could point to a guilty Brinniel. What does not fit is her "not 100% sure about Fea". A critic would put more focus on the guilt of Fea to divert people's eyes away from Aganzir, even if Fea is a critic, too.

Fea does look like the more guilty one since tgwbs pursued her more...but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target.
This is a good point, that I overlooked before. If tgwbs found Fea to be a cobbler and Aganzir a critic, why didn't he leave Fea be and went after Aganzir more? It could be the roles are in fact switched, it could be both are critics and you can only chase one at a time (usually), it could be tgwbs feared being too obvious and then dead, it could be he feared the cobbler more because she could expose him, it could be his dreams were actually different than I thought...

Kath

Also, a double lynch? I'm not sure that's a brilliant idea. We've already had one double lynch this game and it did us no good.
She is less clear than Boro, but more clear than the following Sally. She votes for Fea.

Sally

She went through tgwbs's posts and said she found the same as everyone. She does not mention Aganzir once. A guilty Aganzir strongly points towards a guilty Sally.

I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the double lynch idea, no matter who it includes.
This fits the scheme, especially with the omission of Aganzir, again.

I'm not going to fight a double lynch, but I'd just like to express my opinion against the idea.
And there's the desired carefulness...

Later she suggests Gollum and Cailineomer as candidates for a double lynch she could go with. She doesn't say why Aganzir is not an option. (Complete omission of her is more than I expected, to be honest.)
She also throws in a very vague suspicion of me that she will not pursue yet.

Gwath makes an excellent point about TGWBS possibly dreaming Agan. I would be amenable to lynching her toDay as well. Which is to say that I'm okay with a Fea lynch OR an Agan lynch, but I don't think we've thought it out enough to risk a double. Besides, I don't think enough people support it for it to be a good idea.
This is funny. I was just about to suggest Gwath and Sally as Aganzir's companions, but Sally taking up Gwath's point against Aganzir, out of all points against Aganzir that were flying around, is surprising.

Gwath

First, I think we are obligated to (at the very very least) seriously consider lynching our seer's most suspected - if only because he was the seer. To do otherwise would be irresponsible, and unfair to the seer.

Regarding Aganzir and Feanor o' the Peredhil: I notice tgwbs had the two of them listed as "most guilty," and not "most suspicious." Given that tgwbs consistently pro-lynching-Fea from Day 1, the fact that he makes a sharp shift in his approach to Aganzir between Day 1 and Day 2 indicates to me that he may have dreamt of her in between, and not Fea. Day 1 he calls her reasonable, Day 2 he calls her "most guilty."

I guess, to conclude, I think Aganzir deserves as much attention as Fea - but I don't think a double lynch is in order - was that Mac that suggested that? That's crazy. Look what happened last time.
Alarm bells be a-ringing. He gives points against Aganzir and Fea but steps away from double-lynching them. After Gollum stepped on his toes:

Well - I guess this is technically true. Maybe I'm just squeamish about taking that kind of risk.

Oh, and I didn't say we kill both Agan and Fea, I just said we should seriously consider doing so. There is, as Aganzir pointed out, the possibility, however slight, that tgwbs did not dream of one or both of them. Maybe he only dreamt of innocents; it's possible.
Alarm bells be a-ringing more. He relativises his opinion instantly once challenged.
He then votes for Aganzir which is surprising, but could be explained by nervousness after Gollum's call.

Cailineomer

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly.
While I was looking for auto-excuses, this is surprisingly blunt.


So there.

Case 1:
Gwathagor (very suspicious)
Sally
Kath
Brinn
Lari
Boro (only a little suspicious)

Case 2:
Cailineomer
Gollum (both only a little suspicious)


I did this mostly because Aganzir was starting to convince me. Her replies showed just the right amount of defense, offense, outrage, and helpfulness. I would like to believe you Aganzir, really, but pretty much all evidence is against you (though Brinn's points are valid ones). The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.


Don't get greedy.

But it's fun to! :p

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The only thing that could really dissuade me is probably Fea's unlikely innocence.

As a funny little anecdote, last night I was asked to write something pertaining to the pair of boots I'm wearing. So I wrote something, and then I was told, "This is why nobody ever trusts you."

So I can't even wear shoes without garnering suspicion, if that tells you anything.

Like that I might be suspicious, but that I'm really very cuddly in secret.

[Macalaure]

We clearly need a vote count:

Sally -> Fea
Kath -> Fea
Aganzir -> Fea
Gwath -> Agan
Lari -> Fea
Fea -> Agan
Cailin -> Agan
Boro -> Fea

Fea 5, Agan 3

Left (5): Brinn, Shasta, Strongbow, me, Gollum

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

[insert obviously made up excuse as to why you should lynch me, not Agan]

--Agan

++Fea

[Gwathagor]

Ok, now that looks suspicious.

[Aganzir]

That's impressive, Mac. Only a pity that I'm innocent. :p
However what I find funny is that I was about to say myself that sally's suggestion of lynching Cailín or Gollum didn't sound that bad.

I wonder what's going to happen if Bowie doesn't appear today. Or Shasta, but I think he will.

[Gwathagor]

It seems Fea really really doesn't want a double-lynch to take place...which is interesting...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Ok, now that looks suspicious.

Well she's obviously innocent, much the same way that I'm obviously innocent, in that TGWBS put both of us in the same category with no qualifying statements such as apparent hints. The only difference is that he voted for me, which I put down to not having dreamed of a critic (only the innocents that art Boro and Kath), and obviously somebody's got to be the most suspicious, and let's face it: I'm always the most suspicious. Add on that little chat I had with the phantom on the very first day, as well as the fact that TGWBS died after two hard days of gunning for me, well of course I'm seen as guilty.

And Agan got pinned right up with me on top of the list, though I don't particularly know why.

I recommend you pick one of these options and go with it:

1) I'm a critic/Walter and I know that Agan isn't on my side, or

2) I'm innocent, and I seriously think TGWBS didn't dream of either of us.

I hold to the second one.

If one of us has to go, let it be me. The village really can't afford to lose as good a player as Agan. Especially not since I think TGWBS had absolutely no idea who was actually guilty, and merely made an educated (if wrong) guess.

[Gwathagor]

Uh-huh. Obviously innocent.

:rolleyes:

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Can't blame a girl for trying.

Save the whales! Hug a tree! Don't kill Aganzir!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't know what to think at this point. Fea could be bluffing to save Aganzir tomorrow.

++Fea

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Could be trying to save Agan?

How much more obvious can I get?

Vote for me! Kill me!

*turns attention back to bio report*

[Brinniel]

I still think this double lynch plan is a stupid idea. If so many think Fea is the cobbler, don't you know that the cobbler is on our side as far as numbers go? So, if we were to lynch Fea and she was the cobbler and we also lynched Agan and she ended up being innocent, we'd be losing two in our numbers? And while I do think Fea looks to be part of the guilty party, if by some tiny chance we all turn out to be wrong and she's innocent, then we're really screwing ourselves over. I think most people know by now I am and have been against double lynches. They are a risk, and more often than not they go wrong. If Fea turns out to be guilty, then Agan should certainly be examined and tried come toMorrow...but this is no decision we should rush into.

++Fea

EDIT: X-posted

[Cailín]

Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless. :p

[Cailín]

Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl. :o

[Brinniel]

It seems Fea really really doesn't want a double-lynch to take place...which is interesting...
I really think Fea is just trying to mess with our heads (which is something I know she loves to do). If they were both critics (or she the cobbler who discovered her a critic), I don't think she'd be so obvious in trying to save Agan. It's more likely Fea doesn't even know Agan's identity herself.

[Brinniel]

The one thing I don't want to do is solely focus on Aganzir toMorrow. Of course we can suspect her, but we must bring other suspects to the table as well because we know there are other baddies about too.

I would've gladly given a nice analysis of everyone so far, but there's not enough time now, so it'll have to wait until toMorrow if I'm still alive. Though as of now, the one other person I'm worried about other than the two being discussed is Sally. Simply because of her vote yesterDay, which was a completely echoed mine. It wasn't that she voted for the same person, but that her explanation came so close to copying mine...I've never felt so uneasy about someone agreeing with me on something. It just seems she was trying to turn the Gollum vote into a bandwagon.

[Lariren Shadow]

Vote count(yay time inbetween reading why Sherlock Holmes is always right and Watson is always wrong...in a book about writing history):

Sally -> Fea
Kath -> Fea
Aganzir -> Fea
Gwath -> Agan
Lari -> Fea
Fea -> Agan
Cailin -> Agan
Boro -> Fea
Fea-> change to Fea
Shasta-> Fea
Brinn-> Fea

Fea 8, Agan 2

Left to vote: Strongbow, Gollum, Mac

[Boromir88]

Le Lament to Fea:

Never a voice did we hear
that made us tremble in fear.
Her notes could cut through hills
a voice like that certainly kills.
It binds me with a great pain
Treacherous Fea, wild man's bane.

RIP my lady.

[Macalaure]

++Fea

I have too many doubts about Aganzir to really push for a double-lynching, because as it looks right now, that's what I would have to do to get there.

The one thing I don't want to do is solely focus on Aganzir toMorrow. Of course we can suspect her, but we must bring other suspects to the table as well because we know there are other baddies about too.
Absolutely. Even if we end up agreeing to lynch her, it would be a waste of a day if we didn't look at others.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I don't think she'd be so obvious in trying to save Agan. It's more likely Fea doesn't even know Agan's identity herself.

This is just wrong on so many levels...

Well, the first part's right. If I was a bad guy, I'd never ever direct so much attention on one of my cohorts. I mean, imagine if the village took me seriously and killed them? That would be tragic. So no. I'd never take a risk. You know me- careful to the very end.

And you should remember that if I'm a Critic, I at least know that Agan isn't (wink wink), and if I'm the Cobbler, I may well have dreamed of Agan (third wink), and if I'm an ordo, then I'm kind of bored being an ordo and am just causing trouble for my own amusement.

You know me. What sounds most like something I'd do?

[Mithalwen]

Few more minutes ...

[Brinniel]

You know me. What sounds most like something I'd do?
Well, I guess that's the thing about you, Fea. You are always so unpredictable. At least in my book. :p

[Mithalwen]

Curtain falls. (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=3YNvMlG2TZE)

[Mithalwen]

I dont know if I have enough online time for a worthy death scene tonight so I will give you the result and fill in ASAP . Sorry cos I do like the big suspense thing...

Fea was a critic .



Surviving critics prepare to receive Walter's intelligence

Walter and Critics send choices in due course.

I am beginning to contemplate action on the non voters. I think neither Gollum nor Strongbow have voted at all and Strongbow has not been seen for a couple of days. Anyone with a strong opinion please PM me.

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith

You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO
TGWBS - bass, woodwose, SEER
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano CRITIC

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)

[Mithalwen]

The good folk of Dol Amroth had departed, reeling in shock that they had been fooled by an impostor in the guise of their own candidate and wondered at the skill of the critics. The other singers retired once more to their dressing rooms - scarce relieved by the knowledge that there was one critic fewer when two yet remained.

They were right to be worried .... like a homeopathic remedy their potency increased as the amount reduced...

"Lax intonation, lacks timbre, lacks warmth, ..."

The traumatised and vulnerable mezzo from Harad fled from the unseen critics clutching her hastily gathered possessions and was resolving never to set foot in this barbarous land again when she ran straight in to the baritone from Lossarnach. He was very tall, very handsome... maybe Gondor had some redeeming qualities. She realised that he was holding a suitcase ...

"Where are you going? " she asked as he helped her pick up her belongings ....

"I've had enough of this competition ..I'm going home ....come with me its not far and you will be safe.. from the critics there (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ymBPo0AJ-2Y) " he said persuasively ..

Brinniel took some persuading but eventually decided she was safer following Bowissimo than risking the critics again and the pair left the Opera House for the last time.

The baritone's departure would be a suprise to all but one would be particularly furious that the bond they shared had meant so little to him that he had left without a word and with another singer.

[Mithalwen]

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith

You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO
TGWBS - bass, woodwose, SEER
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano CRITIC
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach SOULMATE
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad ORDO

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)

You now have 2 Critics, Walter, The Divo/a and a very angry Soulmate who may take (ir)rational vengeance.

May I ask everyone to VOTE. The retractable votes are to allow you to vote early if necessary knowing that you may change your mind if you are able to return,

[the phantom]

Oh great.

[Aganzir]

I am Bowie's soulmate.

:p:p:p

Therefore I would kindly request not to be lynched today.

I am planning to kill someone today because this is probably my last chance. I am under the impression that the person in question will be killed once I have submitted their name in & Mith is around, ie already before the end of the day. So if you need some actual proof about my innocence...

Also, it's no coincidence I put David Bowie quotes or slight alterations of them here and there in my posts and Strongbow quoted Lion King. If you want a list, here it is:
And all the nobody people (Five Years)
my schoolday was insane (Suffragette City)
uncertain if I like her (Drive-in Saturday)
nowhere to be seen (Life on Mars)
The only quote he had was But maybe I've a glimmer of potential from Be Prepared. We decided to do this in case we would need to prove our innocence later. He stopped posting before getting any more quotes hidden, though.

And no I have no idea what has happened to him. Last time I talked to him was on day 2 I think.

As for my revenge kill, I have some options. However I would gladly like to see suggestions from you others.

I still don't know why tgwbs put me together with Fea. It's certain that he never dreamed of me though. Maybe he wanted to mislead the wolves or then he was just so certain about my guilt.

I want to go through Boro's posts and see if there's anything strange at some point today.

So was Brinn chased away by the critics or did she withdraw?

[Mithalwen]

Brinniel was the critics' target. Bowie was modfired ..I couldn't resist the duet. Still trying to find something worthy of Fea....

[Boromir88]

I was just going to suggest the other soulmate should stay hidden so not to obscure data/information before making a kill choice.

Well, now that's pointless, thanks Agan. P.S. I'm convinced.

And that also means I now have to scrap my entire opening post, because I was going to set up a defense of monstrous proportions for you. So, thank you times deux.

[the phantom]

The only quote he had was But maybe I've a glimmer of potential from Be Prepared.
Yes, I finally figured that out last night. I knew there was something weird about that post, but I was going about it the wrong way. I guess I haven't watched Lion King enough recently. I didn't recognize the lyrics. I had to type them into Google to finish the connection.

Early on I thought Bowie and Sally were the pair (because they both made the same error in spelling), but after I questioned Sally about her spelling and she didn't respond to it in the expected way, I scratched that idea. So all I was left with was that Bowie had made that one oddly worded post. Surely it had to mean something.

And Google told me it did. ;)

[Cailín]

That was unexpected.

Boromir seemed to think Aganzir was gifted, yesterday, but then she denied it. Well, I am glad that we do not have to waste another lynching opportunity - I was quite disappointed that Fea and Aganzir were not killed in one blow, but now it is evident that TGWBS did not dream of both after all and we can maybe find a known innocent in his posts (though I doubt it will be obvious enough for us to fully trust such a hint).

I will have a look through some of the previous posts now that we have some more information, though I'll leave analysing Fea's contributions to someone less prone to frustration.

[Aganzir]

I considered staying hidden but decided I wasn't in a mood for defending myself the whole day, especially as all the evidence pretty much pointed at me. And you're welcome, Boro. :p

Boromir seemed to think Aganzir was gifted, yesterday, but then she denied it.
I don't think I specifically denied it. I just said no one would have believed me even if I had declared yesterday.

I'm curious about how many caught the hint(s). As far as I know, at least sally and Fea (and tgwbs, but he clearly didn't notice anything :p) are familiar with the Lion King. Given that, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the wolves had been aware of us for some time already. I would suppose they wanted to get rid of us as soon as possible, so I'll probably want to take a look at those who suspected me or really wanted a double lynch yesterday. Of course different wolves may have reacted differently, though, and it's not certain they even knew of us.

[Lariren Shadow]

So Brinn and Strongbow are gone? Ok then.

Well, I wish I was more aquanited with The Lion King now. And considering I spent most of the summer listening to "Be Prepared"(it was shuffled one day and I kind of got hooked) I should have caught something. Then again, I'm not at all familiar with David Bowie.

I think I need to go back through the posts and see who thought Brinn was suspicious as well as who she was suspicious of. That might give a clue as to who killed her.

[Macalaure]

It's good that Aganzir has a proof of her role, she probably wouldn't have been believed otherwise (at least not by me).

If she was not tgwbs's second dream, then either he dreamt of Fea in Night 2 only (hence he was only certain of her being a critic from then on) and perhaps Boro in Night 1, or I fear he probably dreamt of me in Night 2, hence his suspicion of Aganzir (her vote for Nogrod and her case against me).

I'm a bit surprised about the kill. Brinniel has often been killed when nobody better was to be found, but I'd say this time there was. I need to have a look at her.

[Macalaure]

I'm a bit sick today, so I only took a look at Brinn's posts from yesterDay.

She's careful about conclusions from the seer's posts and isn't even certain of Fea. She thus is against the double lynch, which must've put her higher on the critics' wish list. She let go of Gollum, which makes him look even more innocent to me.

She then was one of the few ones who looked at the Ilya voting. Sadly, I'm the one who comes out most suspicious. Boro and Kath are considered more innocent.

After her vote she said she wanted to give an analysis of everyone but didn't have the time. (Could one of the critics be a submarine-type who was afraid of no longer floating by after that analysis?) She's suspicious of Sally.

Conclusion (if you can call it that): Sally doesn't look too well. Gollum is probably innocent. Boro and Kath look innocent, too, but both are able to pull a bluff like this and kill somebody who is likely to defend them. Neither is on top of my list right now, though.

[Gollum the Great]

Oh great.

Wow. You are good at reading my mind.

[Gollum the Great]

Now to do something constructive: I will analyze someone. Mac prepare to be analyzed!

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Boro deduced Fea had made a fake confession when saying she was a wolf. He also said that tgwbs's and Fea's lists were different from Brinn's, whose list was more suspicious as she looked like she didn't want to step on anyone's toes. Well Brinn was an ordo whereas both tgwbs and Fea had special roles.

Then there's this little exchange concerning Fea & phantom's code talk, which I believe was one of the things that I found a bit alarming at first. However all the time that I was reading through Fea's posts I thought it was about communication between a critic and the cobbler so that might explain it. It's mostly the catching things part...
Boro - good to see you're catching things. Don't drop the ball.
I have safe hands.


Boro what did you mean with the following?
I'm waiting on one more thing from her, if I see it, I would bet she's innocent, if not - well you can guess.


While reading through Fea's posts after tgwbs's death, I noticed her use of the word follow. Dunno if it means anything, but it's repeated thrice, which seems to me to be more than necessary. Underlinings mine.
Does the Cobbler/Spy get to find out the role of the person s/he spies on, or is that information given only to the Critics? Because if the Cobbler knows her/his marks, than there's an extra player on the side of evil who knows that who s/he may or may not be voting for is ordo. Do you follow?
I think it looks like Fea was trying to fish for a reaction from the cobbler. Unless I missed a post, Boro was the only one who replied to it.
I can't see how the cobbler would be able to pass on info that xe didn't know xeself. (Did I use that properly?) That would make a giant continuity problem within the fabric of the performance.
Cobbler sends choice to Mith, Mith sends choice to Critics. I envision it sort of like the Cobbler picks up a packet of information which xe never gets to read. Of, of course, Cobbler PMs Mith, Mith PMs back, Mith PMs Cobbler. I know Mith used the phrase 'blind drop' and I assume that means that the Cobbler doesn't get to PM the Critics (that the Cobbler doesn't know their identity) but I just wondered if it meant that the Cobbler doesn't actually know the info that xe is acquiring.
But see the massive inconsistancy? How could you justify a dead drop info to the wolves if the Cobbler doesn't know the info xe is dropping off? Xe's a sneak, not a hallucinajenic.
Boro's responses don't look very much like he was giving cobbler hints to Fea. I think this discussion was another thing that made me doubt his intentions, though. Just because he was the only one who responded.

Another quote with follow, and I really have no idea if this means anything or not.
On a more-serious-than-movie-reference note, isn't this essentially what we do even when he's not OG? We know he wasn't a critic, and we know he wasn't The Cobbler, but just as if he was still playing, we don't know his priorities (apart from 'himself') and we know he has no special other knowledge he can give us. So I propose this: it's dangerous to assume he's a declared innocent, because he's not: he's a declared OG, which, if you've watched the musical/movie or read the book, Erik was a nutjob serial killer with an absolute skill at torture and manipulate. The trapdoor king. So I propose: we listen to him about as much as we normally do: if his suggestions seem reasonable, we take a shot. If he sounds a bit too much like himself, we skip it.

Everybody follow?

And the last one which was directed at Boro, again with follow.
Versus you... now you're usually not so forgiving to me as oh, say... I am. So why the switch now?

Unless you're trying to save me.

If you can't, I say you... take advantage. If you follow.

I don't quite know if I should make anything of that. I believe Fea was trying to find the cobbler, but it's still possible that xe didn't realise it or want to risk giving xemself away, and Fea tried to frame Boro who had reacted to it.

Tgwbs had Boro listed as the most innocent but I don't know if it means anything. Despite this all I'm inclined to believe he dreamed of Fea, maybe on night 1, just because it would suit tgwbseer so well. And it's possible he put my name next to Fea's just so as not to be so obvious, or because he thought I looked as suspicious as she (it happens surprisingly often when people play with me for the first time in ages).
He found Boro innocent already on day 1, and I can't see why he'd later dream of someone he considered innocent. An innocent Mac could have been his night 2 dream, especially given his sudden turn on me then.
A Boro dream is possible but nothing that should be taken for granted.

**

What on earth is this?
Dear David Bowie: I am still in love with your makeup. ♥me.

**

Also Boro, when did you figure out my role?

And people, I haven't decided yet who I am going to kill, and I'd like to know your opinions as well because otherwise there's a risk I only choose between those I've paid more attention thus far.

Mac, it's also possible the wolves wanted to encourage suspicions against an innocent sally when killing Brinn.

edit: xed with two Gollums

[Aganzir]

Now to do something constructive: I will analyze someone. Mac prepare to be analyzed!
Errm... okay. Have fun. :p

[Gollum the Great]

Errm... okay. Have fun. :p

For what seems the 800th time I got distracted or something and didn't post what I typed up. I'm not holding up to my obligations to this game very well. I'll try to finish this analysis quick.

[the phantom]

TGWBS on Day 2-
Cailineomer - Vote Nogrod meta-reason. Not especially suspect, but not especially un-suspect.

Mac - Vote Menel. Not especially suspicious, Wild Man think. Certainly, Wild Man share suspicion of Menel. At time, no suspect anyone else, but latest post seem wise, so Wild Man not extremely wary.

Gwath - Vote Nogrod. Had spat before. But with retrospect, look very defensive against Nogrod. Also, no suspect anyone (except Nog, Lari, late on). Speak much, say little. Then suspect Lari for she speak much, say little! Wild Man suspicious.

Fea - Again, speak much, say little. This vote worst than Gwath, for Gwath formerly suspect Nog, whereas Fea not formerly suspect, or even at time suspect Menel, and push bandwagon. Wild Man suspicious.

Brinniel - Early on, Brinn say: no suspect anyone. Then Brinn say, consider Nog, Sally or Mac, not want spread vote. Then say, want hear more from Mac, Sally say little. Vote for Nog on "feeling". Not very good.
----------
Addendum: Brinn's last post make Wild Man feel she more innocent - it seem innocent reaction.

Kath - Originally, Wild Man think Kath quiet, therefore maybe lynch Kath. However, now that she make word, Wild Man think her word wise.

Boro - No reason to suspect. Feel innocent.

Wild Man tire now. Perhaps look at Sally, Ilya, Aganzir in little while.
----------
Sally - Voice no suspicion to start. Then, once Nog and Menel have 2 vote each, she suddenly say they both look suspicious! Seem like she want fuel bandwagon. Vote Nog despite suspect Menel more. However, claim this to avoid double lynch. Also, final attempt retraction to avoid double lynch. This make her seem more innocent. Overall, Wild Man neutral toward her.

Ilya - Throwaway vote in crucial position. This only mildly concerning.

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote? With retrospect, Wild Man no convince by her suspicion of Mac, on feeling. Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour! Overall, Wild Man worried.

Lariren - Wild Man see little reason to suspect.
He finishes his post with his list, and Boro is listed at the very top where it says "most innocent".

And notice that his statement about Boro is the shortest and most clear. TGWBS knew he was the Seer when he said it, so do you think he'd say that if he hadn't dreamed of Boro? He didn't say "little reason to suspect". He said "No reason to suspect". And added "Feel innocent".

It seems to me that Boro=innocent is the most likely Night 2 dream. Yeah, yeah, maybe not. But I certainly wouldn't take a shot in that direction. I think you should all just take a leap off a cliff and agree to trust Boro completely. If you're wrong- oh well. You must take risks to pull off a great performance. But if you're right, the Critics will have no choice but to bump him off, and it is always nice to force the hand of the enemy.

[Boromir88]

Boro what did you mean with the following?~Agan
A couple times I've noticed Fea makes several false reveals throughout her time in games. She could probably very well do it as a wolf too, but I just remember her being a wolf, ranger, seer, and who knows what other role she claimed to be. When she's an ordo she still loves to stir the pot, but it's more in a fun and innocent way, not sly and evil. That is she will just make all these false claims randomly throughout the game.

The one time I remember her being a wolf, she came out on Day 1 (I think first post) and said it, she ended up being lynched on Day 1, but that was primarily because I was the seer and dreamt her Night 1. I fought my tail off to get her lynched Day 1, without making it clear to everyone I was the seer. So, this time I was waiting for some kind of other random claim at being a soulmate, divo...whatever, which I don't think she did here. She admitted to being a critic on Day 1, and then later tried to look like the Cobbler.

It's possible that tgwbs saw Fea saying she was a critic right off the bat, and thought "that's exactly was a critic-Fea would do - let me see" and dreamt her Night 2. I guess either Night 1 or night 2, doesn't matter anymore, tgwbs definitely had one dream on Fea.

Also Boro, when did you figure out my role?
When you revealed and made your post. I didn't know your exact role, nor really your innocence, I was just going to give you a good defense today. Primarily because someone (I think Gwath) picked on the wording of tgwbs using "guilty" and not "suspicious." And I was going to argue at the top of the list he used "innocent" not "least suspicious."

Basically I was going to say, what's Gwath's points in the words tgwbs chose? Or I didn't really think it was that big of a deal? I think "guilty" and "innocent" is the way tgwbs chooses to write, while others like to go for "suspicious" and "unsuspicious," pretty much it doesn't mean anything. I mean I use the word "see" all the time, doesn't mean I'm the seer, it's just the way I write. Also, I highly doubted a wolf-Fea would have incriminated one of her partners the way she did to you. But that's all really a moot point now. :rolleyes:

But if you're right, the Critics will have no choice but to bump him off, and it is always nice to force the hand of the enemy.~tp
Exactly. ;)

I really have no idea about suspicions right now. I think Kath, Gwath, and Lari all deserve a little pressure though.

[Gollum the Great]

Day 1

Post 1:

Says he thought the game would begin tomorrow. Jokes about Boro making frivolous votes on him (Mac). Decided not to try to figure out who has which role and who is the most dangerous. Disagrees with half of what had been said so far, thought phantom was not evil, and thought he could trust Ilya. Doesn't trust Menel.

Post 2:

Says he has nothing funny to say. Makes quick list of who has posted so far:

Boro - probably innocent.
Gwath - can't tell, slightly leaning innocent.
Aganzir - I'm not alarmed by her, but Rikae is, so I'm wary.
Sally - hasn't warmed up yet, leaning innocent.
Fea - another one that feels innocent-ish.
Nogrod - feels innocent, which is alarming.
Lari - newbie, therefore auto-assumed-innocent for first few days.
Brinniel - can't tell, but Rikae told me to be careful about her.
Kath - is here... and gone again.
phantom - very probably innocent.
tgwbw - amusing, but maybe more critical about our performances than about his syntax.
Menel - too careful and thus suspicious.
Ilya - probably innocent.
Strongbow - haven't played with him yet and I don't yet know what to make of him.

Post 3:

Says that for the following days he he should be around at the DL, but today he needed to vote early. Claims to be disappointed with the number posts and even more disturbed with their shallow content. Says he will probably vote Menel. Asks someone to be very suspicious in the next half hour.

Post 4:

Jokes with TGWBW's statement that he hadn't made a good explanation of his thought process.

Post 5:

Votes Menel with no reason included in the post


Day 2

Post 1:

Complains that the rest of the opera could have done better than to double-lynch two ordos. Comments on phantom's new standing in the game. Apologizes (to late) to Menel, saying he would have withdrawn his vote had he seen Menel's responses to his votes. Challenges Boro's statement that he (Mac) made an "easy way out to slide by the day". Makes an overview of the previous day's voting:

Cailineomer's vote for Nogrod, while somewhat suspicious taken by itself, is probably not a critical one. Why would a critic want to get into trouble with one of the more persuading singers when there was not even an indication then that said singer will be eliminated? It would have been a move that could easily have backfired.
Gwath's vote for Nogrod and Fea's vote for Menel don't smell nice. Both are pushing a bandwaggon.
Brinniel's vote for Nogrod I don't like either. She pushes the bandwaggon with very little reason. Then again, a critic would have known that a Day1-lynching of Nogrod would have attracted interest, so would a critic not rather not have positioned herself in such a spot in a bandwaggon? Hmm..
What to do with Sally's vote? Of course every critic would love to see Nogrod lynched so early, but so much that they would risk their own neck for it by putting a vote in such a prominent space? Hardly. Her retraction looks innocent.
Boro's retraction for Menel is to save Nogrod, of course, but considering that he voted me before mostly because I voted Menel, it's a bit eyebrow-raising. Since obviously he was not happy about either choice, why didn't he at least try to bring up a third option?
Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.
Wild man's vote for Menel is not suspicious either. He stated he liked to save Nogrod before.
I'll have a look at the other votes later if I think it might enlighten something.

An analysis of the attempted killing of the phantom would be interesting, but I'm sure tp can do that better than I. I'll leave that burden to him.


Disagrees with TGWBW about tp's role being a good for the village.

Lastly he says something about something which I'm not up to date with.

Post 2:

Tries to reason with Agan regarding her suspicion on him. Agrees with Brinn that the fact that "everyone" is focusing on Nog's death and not Menel's is disturbing.

Post 3: ... is below:

Sally - not a critic, I think
Lari - pleasant addition to ww, not suspicious
Fea - suspicious vote yesterday, made headache yesterday, but I'll let her be for now, because I think tp should be able to figure her out before the end
Ilya - too - many - quotes
Brinn - her posts look innocent and helpful, but her vote is suspicious
Kath - same as Brinn, minus the suspicious vote
Aganzir - seems innocent to me
Gwath - suspicious: I need to have another look at him, but right now I think he might come out as my prime suspect for toDay
Shasta - escaped my attention so far
Bowie - escaped my attention, too
Gollum - escaped my attention, too, darnit
tgwbs - I was a bit suspicious of him before, but what he posted toDay so far looks innocent
Boro - I buy his explanation from earlier, so he's off my hook for now
Cailineomer - leaning innocent

This post is mostly for myself to see where I stand and who I need to look at closer. That's what I will do now.

Post 4: ... is not worth summarizing:

Second look at Gwathagor: even though he's sufficiently entertaining, apart from some suspicion against Nogrod since Nogrod criticised him, and one comment on Lariren, Gwath has failed to contribute anything of substance to our cause. Wouldn't a critic try to keep a more helpful face? What is he up to?

Shasta gave very little input yesterday and has yet to appear today. I'm interested in what he has to say.

Last Gollum posted, he had not yet caught up with the game. Let's hope he will catch up today.

Strongbow... I don't know what think of him, that's all I can say.


Post 5: is enormous:

Cailineomer -> Nogrod

I still think this is probably not a suspicious vote, but I don't have a good picture of the two due to lack of posts.

Mac -> Menel
Nogrod -> Sally
Gwath -> Nogrod (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1)

Gwath takes his first-best suspicion and gets the bandwaggon rolling with it. Careless.

Shasta -> tgwbs (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1)

Said he will explain today. Why do I have the feeling his explanation won't satisfy us...

Wild man -> Fea (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I don't really understand why the wild man narrowed himself down to Fea and Kath in the end.

Lari -> Ilya (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Solely based on her hunch. Ordos do that because they don't have any better. Critics do it to get away with a throwaway vote.

Menel -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)
Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1, Mac 1)

I find her vote less suspicious than Gwath's one, but not by much.

Boro -> Mac (Nogrod 2, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

Fair reasoning, fair placement.

Brinn -> Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Ilya 1)

The one bad black ugly stain on her white vest.

Kath -> Ilya (Nogrod 3, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

Maybe the most innocent-looking vote of all, I'd say.

Sally -> Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1)

I highly doubt a critic would have made this vote. A very inconvenient spot in the Nogwaggon.

Ilya -> Strongbow (Nogrod 4, Menel 2, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

*goes to look for Ilya's picture in the encyclopedia next to "throwaway vote"*

phantom -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 3, Mac 2, Ilya 2, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)
Boro -- Mac -> Menel (Nogrod 4, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod.

Aganzir -> Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Menel 4, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Fea 1, Bowie 1)

The placement looks rather evil, but she was after him for a longer time.

Wild man -- Fea -> Menel (Nogrod 5, Menel 5, Ilya 2, Mac 1, Sally 1, tgwbs 1, Bowie 1)

Saving Private Nogrod II.

Sally -- Nogrod -> Menel

Not too little, but too late. Attempt to prevent double lynch. Pretty innocent.


Post 6: states suspicions:

Before I retire for today...

Suspicious
Fea
Gwath

Somewhat suspicious
Ilya
Brinn

Nowhere land
Shasta
Strongbow
Gollum
Cailineomer

Somewhat unsuspicious
Lari
Aganzir
tgwbs
Boro

Unsuspicious
Sally
Kath

Then he says that as a wolf he would not poke around trying to get the seer to let a hint slip, if he believed someone to be the seer.


Post 7: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580403&postcount=333

Has to many quotes to place here.

Post 8: *yawns* Um, this would be hard to explain. See below: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580440&postcount=355

You are getting harder and harder to understand, Mac!

Post 9:

Some thoughts on Ilya, who recently rised in my suspicions.

Compare #195 to #223: First she doesn't know where the Nogrod case came from, then she says other people put suspicions against Nogrod (and Menel) in her mind and thus keeps herself out of the vote-fray. Also, first she considers voting Gollum for his case against Strongbow, then she votes Strongbow herself.

Today, while I appreciate all the work she put into all her quote-collections, I'm a bit unhappy with it because there's not much of her own opinions, which I consider more helpful about summary-posts than the summary. She does give her opinions later, but they are kind of simplistic putting-into-boxes like.

In #324 she defends Gwath in a not too convincing manner, which, since I'm suspicious of Gwath, makes me suspicious of her, too. There's also her point against me, which does not make a lot of sense, as Boro remarked, too.

If Ilya should be evil, I think a close look at Brinn might be justified - there seems to be a connection.

Post 10: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=580458&postcount=373

Post 11: I sense the danger of a last-minute bandwaggon against me, but since I can retract my vote if necessary, I'll vote now:

++Ilya

Clearly my top suspect right now, and there seems to be an actual chance to lynch her today, so no reason to hesitate for me.

That ends day 2, and I can't keep this up. Will complete later.

[Lariren Shadow]

Slight apology:

Due to RL stuff(known as busiest day ever!) I probably won't be around at all, possibly not till voting. Then I will try to get back and vote but that depends on how long convocation practice is as well as how much reading I get done for the class I have a test in.

Sorry!

[the phantom]

Does anyone like Star Wars?

Does anyone like Benny Hill?

Does anyone like both (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYfibSaDHrM) at the same time?

And we all like LotR (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yqVD0swvWU) of course. And The Mouth (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Zyam549BS4) of Sauron.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, well, I was pretty busy today, but here I am now.

Gollum! I was hoping you'd actually analyze Mac, rather than just posting quotes. Can we expect to hear your opinions on him later?

Mac's persistent support of a double-lynch yesterDay seems odd to me, given the disastrous consequences of the previous double-lynch. I realize that tgwbs had listed both Fea and Aganzir under "most guilty," but I don't think that would have been enough reason to lynch both. The potential pay-off did not outweigh the potential negative consequences.

Boro - that was indeed me who pointed out that tgwbs short had referred to Fea and Agan as "most guilty." It's obvious now that he just meant it in the sense of "most suspicious" - well, hang on. He would, had he dreamed of Agan, have interpreted her soulmate role as an innocent rather than guilty role, right? Yeah I guess that's a safe assumption.

Aganzir - how does your soulmate-vengeance-kill work exactly?

Time to sleep. Another early morning coming up.

P.S. Ok, you know what? I was reading back some more, and it seems I was making the Mac/double-lynch thing into more of an issue than I should have, since Mac basically ended up agreeing, at the end of the Day, that it wasn't worth it. Sorry.

[Gollum the Great]

Can we expect to hear your opinions on him later?

Yes. I was just tired after my research and in no mood to say much.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so I know this is the lamest excuse ever, but I had a really shiny post (full analysis of all players complete with some lyrics to describe my opinion of them) and it got eaten. I'm terribly sorry, but I'm not doing it again, at least not toDay.

For now, please accept my humble offering of a suspicion list and let me get to sleep.


Suspicious:
Mac
Gollum
Cailin/Eomer

In the middle/no idea/need to look at again to remember what I thought:
Shasta
Gwath
Lari
Kath

Innocent:
Boro
Agan

Again, my sincerest apologies. I'll explain my reasons for suspecting the three I've named in the morning, assuming that I get up on time. If not, even more apologies and a promise to make another post toMorrow should I survive. Gah. It's been a heck of a day and I feel like a slacker. Sorry, guys.

*toddles off for bed*

[Aganzir]

For what seems the 800th time I got distracted or something and didn't post what I typed up. I'm not holding up to my obligations to this game very well. I'll try to finish this analysis quick.
It's just that I made an enormous Mac analysis yesterday. ;)

I didn't know your exact role, nor really your innocence, I was just going to give you a good defense today.
Aww thanks.

Mac's persistent support of a double-lynch yesterDay seems odd to me, given the disastrous consequences of the previous double-lynch. I realize that tgwbs had listed both Fea and Aganzir under "most guilty," but I don't think that would have been enough reason to lynch both. The potential pay-off did not outweigh the potential negative consequences.
Now you're quick to change your mind Gwath. Yesterday after Gollum had said it was a risk worth taking you ended up voting for me.

Aganzir - how does your soulmate-vengeance-kill work exactly?
Ah it is a crime of passion. I can kill anyone, even the divo... Which is why I'm not entirely comfortable with my role because with my luck the person I decide to kill is indeed xem. And I can kill whenever I want, but only once.
I don't care how openly I speak about my kill as it's most likely committed during this day anyway, which means the critics are probably going to scare me to death in the night.

it seems I was making the Mac/double-lynch thing into more of an issue than I should have, since Mac basically ended up agreeing, at the end of the Day, that it wasn't worth it.
Only after I had made a really big show that the critics would have been the only ones who had benefited from a double lynch. I think he voted Fea in the end only because there was no chance he could get us double lynched, though.

[Cailín]

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf (I remember an occasion with our lovely TGWBS and me wasting my Ranger powers defending his lycantropic skin every night) and we are all so easily won. ;)

I have no intention to take the phantom's proposed leap of faith here.

[Gwathagor]

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.


I hadn't thought of it that way before.

[Gwathagor]

I'm sorry, I have to vote pretty early.

++Sally

Potential cobbler maybe, but it's more or less a random vote.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Gwath said to phantom that he shouldn't assume he had been dreamed of. Back then I thought it could be a seer hint but didn't pursue the idea further as there seemed to be no reason later. He also warned phantom about assuming that ordos try to get killed instead of gifteds.

He said to Fea that ignoring her was the best thing we could do until she stopped confusing us and started actually playing. Nog accused him based on this, saying he was too eager to show he was a decent player himself. I still don't quite agree with Nog, and I think Gwath's response was reasonable ("Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good.").

Gwath was suspicious of Nog for his case against him but said he wouldn't vote him yet (which he did, after all), and Lari who, in his opinion, didn't say anything. He said he would need more time to decide if it was just natural lack of confidence or something more sinister. 'Something more sinister' is a phrase that always tips me off. There's just something so wolfish in it.
He had noticed Nog's divo comment but assumed it was a joke. Someone brought up a point that innocents should have been careful about lynching Nog after that, but I can hardly blame him, voting for Nog myself too.

On day 2 Gwath defended himself against Mac, who had called his vote careless, by saying their votes weren't very different in terms of context and consequences, and that Mac had actually less reasons to vote for Menel than Gwath had for Nog. I agree with this, but on the other hand I'm still rather suspicious of Mac. I don't think they're both wolves.

Gwath responded reasonably to Boro's statement that he & Nog's argument had been over semantics ie meaningless crap.
He was a bit suspicious of sally and didn't like the Gollum votes. He voted for sally but crossed with deadline.

Okay on to day 3... Gwath voiced the obvious ie we should seriously consider lynching the people the seer suspected the most. He pointed out tgwbs had said most guilty instead of most suspicious, but as Boro already said different people have different ways to phrase things. If I label people either as Guilty, Innocent or Neither, I don't seriously mean that half the people don't have a role.
If he was Fea's fellow critic, I'm not sure he would have brought up more points against her. However we probably shouldn't pay much attention to who were all for lynching Fea and who were wavering since I'm rather sure the wolves just decided to sacrifice her.

Gwath thought I deserved as much attention as Fea but that we shouldn't double lynch us, seeing what happened last time. However here the situation was somewhat different. On day 1 the double lynch was an accident and there was no spectacular evidence against either lynchee, whereas here we were the main suspects of the seer. Therefore an innocent would probably have thought that the risk of a catastrophical double lynch was considerably smaller than on day 1.

Did the wolves have any inkling as to who the cobbler is? If they did, they were probably for a double lynching of Fea and me yesterday. But if they didn't and eg thought I was the cobbler (since I was listed as equally guilty as Fea), I think they would have been against it.

Gwath agreed with Gollum once he had asked why not double lynch us. I don't like it very much because now, had we been double lynched, he could have accused Gollum of making him believe it was a good idea.
He also said he hadn't said we should kill us both, just that we should seriously consider doing so as there was still a chance tgwbs hadn't dreamed of either. While it is possible he tried to defend his fellow (which would have been quite useless at that point though), it makes me feel better about him. A wolf would probably have gone after us both so as to minimize their losses.
He ended up voting for me.

When Fea retracted and voted herself, Gwath thought it looked suspicious and said it really looked like Fea didn't want a double lynch. I don't think his reaction is very suspicious.

Today Gwath thought Mac's support of double lynch seemed odd given the consequences of the previous double lynch. Rather hypocritical. Yesterday Gwath himself was ready to lynch us both. I don't like the way he turns against Mac now.

**

As for interaction between Gwath and Fea, on day 1 she quoted him and told who her favourite movie villain is. She also said Gwath should be lynched instead of her for forgetting that the point of the game is to amuse Mith, which Fea was doing. But this was Fea's list with meta-reasons.

When Nog accused Gwath of overreacting to suspicions, Fea vaguely defended him, saying innocents tend to get more irritated of being unjustly suspected. She added, though, that in her opinion wolves become hostile over little suspicions whereas ordos react to major ones. So in the end she seemed to reach no conclusion about Gwath and both defended and accused him within a few sentences. Gwath was also on her list of possible voting candidates.

On day 2 Fea put Gwath in her Concerned category along with Boro and Ilya, both of whom probably innocent, and said she intended to vote for him. I wonder if she had treated a fellow like that on day 2 as he wasn't *that* suspected. In the end she voted Ilya though, saying she didn't have time to substantiate any arguments against Gwath.

**

I would be rather willing to assume that either Mac or Gwath is a critic. Of those Mac looks more suspicious to me right now, but if one dies and turns out to be innocent, the other deserves to be looked at closely. I don't think they both are wolves, though. The interaction between them and Fea together doesn't look that wolfish.

edit: xed with Cailín & two Gwaths

[Aganzir]

Grr now I can't go to eat yet because I have to reply to this! :p

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do --- However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.
It didn't occur to you that I might not have opposed a double lynch so much had I not been a gifted? I understood perfectly well that I wouldn't have been able to prove my innocence if I had been ordo, and I would have been lynched today anyway.
Also, it's twisting the truth to claim that lynching me today would have wasted time to find the critics. The only thing that would have wasted time would have been to automatically assume that I was a wolf and interpret everything in that light today. I dare guess you wouldn't have concentrated only on me today anyway, although that's certainly what the wolves would have tried to do.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour...
It occurred to me as well, but I'm not sure if I agree. Because there was a chance tgwbs hadn't dreamed of either of us.

[Macalaure]

Mac, it's also possible the wolves wanted to encourage suspicions against an innocent sally when killing Brinn.

True. In that case the wolves killed somebody who looked innocent and left no clues towards them. This raises the question: Boro looks even more innocent and has the higher werewolf reputation. Why not him instead? Even if he is the cobbler, the critics knew that Aganzir is innocent and not dreamt of. Boro would be the next best guess at a seer dream. Why were they not eager to finish off a soon-to-be quasi-known innocent? Brinniel might have had some ideas, but did not really pose an immediate threat. Did the critics think Boro is the divo or did they fear Boro's death because he was too right and they hoped while alive he might still change his mind? I need to have a look at him.


You are getting harder and harder to understand, Mac!

I know, I feel the same about myself. ;)

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis.


Only after I had made a really big show that the critics would have been the only ones who had benefited from a double lynch. I think he voted Fea in the end only because there was no chance he could get us double lynched, though.

Despite all the pressure that was on you all day you did not do anything that was actually suspicious. That's why, in the end, I decided it was worth doubting you for another day. Other than that, I agree with Cailineomer:

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.


Rikae just told me, if you have no idea who a critic is, lynch an idiot. :D I better get myself some ideas soon...

Gwath is still eyebrow-raising, though. He and Sally are not wolves together - his vote pretty much fixes that now.


Aganzir: it would be best to make up your mind before all the votes go around, so that we're not voting for dead people.


PS: Sally, I usually write my posts in Word and copy them into the editor only to edit the tags in. If my browser eats a post, I always still have the original. :)

xed with Aganzir's Gwathalysis and everything after.

[satansaloser2005]

PS: Sally, I usually write my posts in Word and copy them into the editor only to edit the tags in. If my browser eats a post, I always still have the original.


Thanks for the tip, love. Unfortunately, it was my entire computer that crashed, not the internet. :(



Okay, so I'm at work but they told me I'm not really working until 11 (it's a bit after 9) so I'm on the computer there and will do my best to work up some posts. Just give me a couple minutes to get settled and I'll be back.

[Cailín]

It didn't occur to you that I might not have opposed a double lynch so much had I not been a gifted? I understood perfectly well that I wouldn't have been able to prove my innocence if I had been ordo, and I would have been lynched today anyway.
Also, it's twisting the truth to claim that lynching me today would have wasted time to find the critics. The only thing that would have wasted time would have been to automatically assume that I was a wolf and interpret everything in that light today. I dare guess you wouldn't have concentrated only on me today anyway, although that's certainly what the wolves would have tried to do.

Naturally I am disappointed in my critical reading skills that I failed to recognise you as a Gifted, but it is easy to read posts in a certain way in hindsight. You would have been equally opposed to a double-lynch had you been a nasty critic, and even more so were you the Cobbler, of course. :)

And I am not twisting the truth. I do not necessarily count discussion as very productive in finding critics. Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.

[Aganzir]

Did the critics think Boro is the divo or did they fear Boro's death because he was too right and they hoped while alive he might still change his mind? I need to have a look at him.
Possible. Or then they want to force us to lynch him just to check him out.

Rikae just told me, if you have no idea who a critic is, lynch an idiot. I better get myself some ideas soon...
And who would she suggest? ;)

Aganzir: it would be best to make up your mind before all the votes go around, so that we're not voting for dead people.
Ah planning to vote yourself? :p
Right now I think it's going to be either Cailín or Mac, although I'm considering also Gwath. I could of course take someone I have no idea about, like Shasta or Gollum, but currently I'm not inclined to do so.

By the way, I wonder if the diva/divo should start to think about revealing at some point. As the cobbler is still alive it's possible the critics already know xer identity, and I wouldn't mind knowing that the person I kill is not the diva/o. Plus I think we could do with a known innocent.

Cailín, you were talking about how the situation would have looked if I had been an ordo, and that's what I replied to. I fail to see what your response has to do with mine.

If you are not twisting the truth, yours is different from mine (hmm I wonder if this makes you a baddie :p). We have Fea and her interaction with others, which, I admit, don't provide us with much information though. We can make analyses that help us later even if we lynch an innocent. Etc. So no, I don't think only lynching matters.

[the phantom]

DAY 1 VOTES
CailEom ++Nog
Mac ++Menel
Nog ++sally
Gwath ++Nog (2)
Shasta ++tgwbs
tgwbs ++Fea
Lari ++Ilya
Menel ++Mac
Fea ++Menel (2)
Boro ++Mac (2)
Brinn ++Nog (3)
Kath ++Ilya (2)
Sally ++Nog (4)
Ilya ++Strongbow
Phantom ++Menel (3)
Boro --Mac (1)
Boro ++Menel (4)
Aganzir ++Nog (5)
TGWBS --Fea (0)
TGWBS ++Menel (5)

LATE
Sally --Nog (4)
Sally ++Menel (6)

NO VOTE
Strongbow
Gollum

**********

DAY 2 VOTES
Brinn ++Gollum
Sally ++Gollum (2)
TGWBS ++Fea
Kath ++Ilya
Mac ++Ilya (2)
Agan ++Ilya (3)
Fea ++Ilya (4)
Boro ++Ilya (5)
Lari ++Shasta

LATE
Gwath ++Sally
Ilya ++Gollum (3)
Ilya --Gollum (2)
Ilya ++Mac

NO VOTE
Shasta
Bowie
Gollum
CailEom

**********

DAY 3 VOTES
Sally ++Fea
Kath ++Fea
Agan ++Fea
Gwath ++Agan
Lari ++Fea
Fea ++Agan
CailEomer ++Agan
Boro ++Fea
Fea --Fea
Fea ++Fea
Shasta ++Fea
Brin ++Fea
Mac ++Fea

NO VOTE
Gollum
Bowie

[satansaloser2005]

vote count



Thanks sweetie. You just made my life a bit easier.

I'm here and currently doing my Cailin/Eomer analysis. Done sometime soon. :D

[Cailín]

Aganzir, I am sorry you fail to see my meaning and the rational, mathematical thought process that informed my decision. Macalaure is obviously on the same page, but I do not trust him either.

Do not let your personal disagreement with me cloud your judgement.

[the phantom]

Did the critics think Boro is the divo
Heh. Boro aint the Divo. If he was, he'd have let me know somehow.

No, no, he's an Ordo, and thus he fears death at night. No doubt that is why he chose to greet the village the way he did- with a pseudonym. He greeted us as "Smithee" (from "Alan Smithee" I assume), the director's version of "Walter Plinge". He wanted to plant the idea with the Wolves from the beginning that he was Walter, thus decreasing his chances of dying and increasing the chances that the real Walter would be done in.

Very nice, Boro. It's something I would have done were it not for the fact that my highest calling was to court death and thus prove my divine status.

[Aganzir]

I'm here and currently doing my Cailin/Eomer analysis. Done sometime soon. :D
Bah I was just about to start doing one, too. I'll do something else then and if I come up with something you didn't have in your analysis, I'll say it.

Cailín, sorry if it wasn't clear enough but I would like you to elaborate what you meant by
Naturally I am disappointed in my critical reading skills that I failed to recognise you as a Gifted, but it is easy to read posts in a certain way in hindsight. You would have been equally opposed to a double-lynch had you been a nasty critic, and even more so were you the Cobbler, of course.
and how it was supposed to answer to my previous statement.

Also, I don't let my disagreement with you cloud my judgement. You and Mac have been my options ever since I knew Bowie would get modkilled, and that is because I find you suspicious, not because I disagree with you. ;)

edit: xed with phantom

[Boromir88]

Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.~Cailin
Difference in philosophy is no reason to lynch someone.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf
Now that is a reason, but take a look at all the "evidence," so to say, not just your one piece of personal experience. ;)

We have Fea and her interaction with others, which, I admit, don't provide us with much information though.~Agan
Fea's interaction with people may not be totally useless. In Mith's Midsummer village (I think the 2nd one), I was seer, Fea wolf. I dreamt Fea night one, and she incriminated Kuru (posting "I love Kuru"), Night 2, I dreamt Kuru wolf.

Now, as Fea and Kuru were two tough players who would not escape the seer dream for long, I recall her plan being to distract the village as much as possible from the 3rd wolf (Lalaith) a submarine/unlikely seer dream. So, given the other singers Fea is with her strategy now could be different.

However, don't take who she interacted with, and what she said lightly, particularly on Day 1. She is more than willing to give out clues to her other partners, just as she is likely to incriminate innocents; depending upon who her other partners in crime are. If it's a high-seer dream singer, like Kuru before, she would love to interact with him. If it's a submarine she might say a couple things about them, or not mention them at all.

In Kuru's case too, that was planned by both of them, I doubt Fea would do that to a fellow wolf without consulting first. I know when saying this, I virtually have just incriminated myself, but I have had no night time discussions with Fea, accept it or not that's your prerogative. And I would not follow that strategy, I'm more of the, throw my fellows under the bus for self-preservation. To the point where I will build a massive case against all my buddies.

I'm here until deadline, so I'm going to scour through Fea's Day 1 posts and see what she has said about each player.

Edit: xed with everyone since sally's post

[satansaloser2005]

....first because they have the least posts and are thus the easiest. Unfortunately I can't promise a post-by-post analysis of everyone because I usually find that tedious. Besides, everyone else is doing them. I like being different. :p


Well, I have little time today to even read the thread properly, but there is no direct need for that, since I already know exactly where this game is going just by glancing at the player list:

Cailín’s frustration will slowly rise as the phantom and Feanor of the Peredhil talk in riddles and special sign language that no one else really understands, but at least Sally and Boromir88 will pretend they do. This will lead to much dramatic arias on her part, but somehow she cannot help listening to their advice until Day 4, when - in a rebellious fit - she will turn on these self-proclaimed leaders of the theatre and try to get the phantom lynched, who will still be alive by some cruel twist of fate. This will be successful (naturally), but the phantom turns out to be just another ordinary Singer and TGWBS, whom she claimed she’d trust till the end of times, will proceed to kill everyone with merciless reviews in cave-man grammar.

It is also clear that I shall win this competition. Great range is all well and good, but being two-gendered is well… operatic! Still, best eliminate:

++NOGROD

Because the extent of his indecisiveness could lead to problems later on.

I suggest you keep me alive, because I predict my mental breakdown is truly going to be something tragic. Good to be with you all.

Essentially joking, fine by me. Votes for Noggie, who at the time had no votes and wasn't in danger of lynch at the time, but could have been a lead for the other baddies, or of course an attempt to start a bandwagon in general. It seems like a rather random (excessively random, rather) vote to me, which is confirmed in their next post.


Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

Allow me to translate. "Oh, I knew Nog was innocent but I had to lynch him anyway. (Cailin, not Eomer. Eomer was unhappy with her decision, she says.) Oh, and kill Sally, by the way. No reason, it'd just make Eomer happy. Okay, I'm done apologizing about Nog now. Phantom's cool. I agree with Brinn about Menel's death being a mistake."

So where are her actual statements? They're italicized. Well, it's italicized, because there's only one thought that isn't a one-off, by the way sort of theory or accusation. This concerns me.


People.... Day 2 and 9 pages of chatter... I had forgotten how garrulous you all are.

I am pretty much convinced Gollum is innocent and hope a more suitable lynching candidate shall be found. Instead, I am becoming wary of Sally, whose voting behaviour is suspicious (yes, I did think the last minute doubts were odd) and her response to accusations and remarks directed her way is just... Well, she has always been a remarkably fluffy player, of course.

Can I also ask what the point of Ilya's astounding collection of quotations is?

As for the many other players, be assured that I am watching you. In a non-phantom, but actually having the power of a vote-way.


"Randomness. Gollum shouldn't be lynched, let's find someone else. Oooo, how about Sally? Her voting is suspicious, especially when she tried to rectify the double lynch situation. And she doesn't ever say anything concrete, so she must be evil. Ilya, why the heck did you post a bunch of quotes? Trying to look helpful? It's not working. Bugger this. I'm watching the lot of you."

Okay, so still on the "Lynch Sally" train. Fine by me, as at least now they gave (sort of) an explanation for why they suspect me. But why isn't Gollum suspicious? Tell us your opinion instead of just saying "do this, do that, make the happy couple happier". I do agree about Ilya's post, but this is kind of a moot point now as she's dead. Meh. I've got my eye on you two too.



Do we have seven villains? That was one of the craziest things I've ever seen in Werewolf.

Well, Eomer here. Apparently I am playing today because a certain someone is busy and important.

I had just said to Cailín last night that, while the village won't be too happy with our lack of contribution, at least they wouldn't kill us on the off-chance that we're a submarine Critic - not when there's this whole Fea and Aganzir situation. A case to answer, and all that. It would be mad. I'm sure *censored for Mith's sanity* would agree.

I suppose we need to assess that 7 in a row and decide who the players and the pawns are. I think our critics are staring us right in the face.

I'm assuming they're kidding about analyzing our contingency of *censored for Mith's sanity* voters. Mainly because they never did. Also, it seems to me like they (well, he in this case, but still....) are happy to remain quiet and watch the Fea and Agan fireworks show. Pretty much a "oh, goodie, I can get away with my sneaky semi-silence a bit longer).



I think Eomer once again managed to confirm the extent of our natural innocence.

Nothing but excellent play from the Netherlands.

Random bit of fluff. Yay.



I hate you all so much. :p

Another bit of fluffy fluff. Always a fun choice. ;)



I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly. If Fea is guilty, the reasonable thing to do is to lynch Aganzir the day after. If Miss Peredhil is not guilty (which pretty much everyone agrees is not very likely), we shall still be nervous about Aganzir till the end of our days. Let's clean this mess and catch up on those critics.

++Aganzir

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

"Kill Fea and Agan. Both. Now. I'll help." Pretty straightforward. No matter what happens, she wants to see Agan die. Now the thing is that they could know that Agan was innocent if they were a critic, but there's only one way that they could know about Agan being a soulmate (I'll get to the significance in a minute) and that's if they are Walter. *dramatic music* Obviously Fea is already doomed by this point so the natural baddie course of action is to try to take someone (read, an innocent) down with her, particularly one who will unleash another innocent to kill....well, another innocent, most likely when their lover/soulmate is Joseph Bouquet'd by the mob. I'd give it a pretty good bet that we may have just found our Walter.


Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

Well, the leaving a trace is sort of true, as their suspicions are never really explained. Why is Gollum innocent? Why is Sally evil? Even so much as a "I have a bad feeling about them, a bad vibe" would be better than a consistent "I know what these two people are, let's save/kill them (respectively)".



Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless.

I think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I don't think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I think Fea's evil. I'm not sure if Fea's evil. But either way, Agan's a critic. Interesting too, that they refer to Agan as a potential gifted, yet later (I'll get there in a minute) they say they say they had no idea Agan could be a gifted. Backtracking? Perhaps. And again, I don't mind if they go after me with no reason (I'm innocent, not gifted, so I'm dispensable as per usual) but if they are in fact Walter and did in fact spy on Agan, they would (assumedly) know that she was a soulmate (or at the very least, that she was innocent, and they're bright enough to have between them picked up the connection between Agan and Bowie) so as I've said before, all the more reason to get rid of Agan.



Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl.

"Not going to talk about Fea, but this still makes Agan look suspicious." Bwah? I'm just saying. That they're not. Saying anything, that is.



That was unexpected.

Boromir seemed to think Aganzir was gifted, yesterday, but then she denied it. Well, I am glad that we do not have to waste another lynching opportunity - I was quite disappointed that Fea and Aganzir were not killed in one blow, but now it is evident that TGWBS did not dream of both after all and we can maybe find a known innocent in his posts (though I doubt it will be obvious enough for us to fully trust such a hint).

I will have a look through some of the previous posts now that we have some more information, though I'll leave analysing Fea's contributions to someone less prone to frustration.


"Oh wait, let's not kill Agan now, she's a gifted." Aka, crap, my plan is foiled. Also says it is now time to look through TGWBS' posts to find a known innocent, but doubts we will find one clearly defined. Says they will look through posts, but not Fea's, as they don't want to get frustrated.



I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf (I remember an occasion with our lovely TGWBS and me wasting my Ranger powers defending his lycantropic skin every night) and we are all so easily won.

I have no intention to take the phantom's proposed leap of faith here.

So now Boro's evil because he trusts Agan? Okay, good to know you think so. Now I understand the logic behind this, but Agan seemed very innocent to me as well and I would have/did argue against her lynching yesterDay. Then again, I'm automatically suspicious to them too, so my opinion shouldn't come into play. BUt they still think that lynching Agan yesterDay would have been a good idea (though they admit that, knowing that Agan was gifted, it would have ended poorly. But if she'd been an ordo it wouldn't have been a loss. Define this, please. Every ordo is a loss, even if it's just in numbers.) Doesn't trust Boro.



Naturally I am disappointed in my critical reading skills that I failed to recognise you as a Gifted, but it is easy to read posts in a certain way in hindsight. You would have been equally opposed to a double-lynch had you been a nasty critic, and even more so were you the Cobbler, of course.

And I am not twisting the truth. I do not necessarily count discussion as very productive in finding critics. Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.

People leave traces in discussion, too, you know. Yes, lynches are important, but I often find wolves by their posts, not necessarily just their votes. This, at least to me, makes the lovely couple sound even more evil than before.



Aganzir, I am sorry you fail to see my meaning and the rational, mathematical thought process that informed my decision. Macalaure is obviously on the same page, but I do not trust him either.

Do not let your personal disagreement with me cloud your judgement.

I don't see the thought process behind their vote, in point of fact. They suspect Agan for....some reason, and stick to it throughout, but don't really seem to have a reason. And how is Agan disagreeing? Well, I suppose, being on opposite sides of the game, yes, she is disagreeing. Point taken.



In short, Cailin/Eomer have suspected/'cleared' a handful of people with absolutely NO discussion on most of them, and spotty cases for/against the rest. I think they are a critic, or at the very least (and most probable) they are Walter. And since Walter is greatly aiding the wolves, not just in numbers but in information, I would prefer to get potential Walters out of the way before they pass along any more information.

In even shorter, I want Cailin/Eomer dead. ToDay.


EDIT: x'd, but not really, as I checked for more Cailin/Eomer posts.

EDIT #2: Oh, I did X after all! With Boro.

[Boromir88]

Very nice, Boro. It's something I would have done were it not for the fact that my highest calling was to court death and thus prove my divine status.~tp
I was wondering when someone was going to catch that. hehe. And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words. :D

[satansaloser2005]

I was wondering when someone was going to catch that. hehe. And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words. :D

Well, I'm stupid. I was actually suspecting you might be the devo (based on a comment you made yesterDay I believe) but wasn't sure if you were bluffing or real, and if the critics didn't catch it I was just going to let them try and kill you and have a nice surprise. ;)

[Cailín]

What I meant, Agan, is that I did not consider it very likely that you were a Gifted and especially read your response to Boromir88 as evidence that you were not. In hindsight I see that your reply is ambiguous. I took your defense as either the irrational behaviour of the ordo who does not want to die, or the tricksy words of a villain who wished to buy the critics an extra night.

Difference in philosophy is no reason to lynch someone.

I do not understand your comment, Boro. I can assure you I would have lynched Aganzir for other reasons than difference in philosophy.

[Macalaure]

Thanks for the tip, love. Unfortunately, it was my entire computer that crashed, not the internet.

Poor you. :(

And who would she suggest?

I'll better not tell. ;)

Aganzir, did it occur to you that your kill choices consist only of people who wanted to kill you yesterday? Please, look elsewhere, too. I know I'm not a critic, and I highly doubt that Cailineomer is/are.

He wanted to plant the idea with the Wolves from the beginning that he was Walter, thus decreasing his chances of dying and increasing the chances that the real Walter would be done in.
I need to read people's posts more closely. :rolleyes: I was just going to wonder whether he was the cobbler, but that hint is too obvious (if noticed). I guess we can now assume that the critics know his identity (unless the cobbler didn't see the hint either). With the soulmates still out there, it's explicable why the wolves abstained from an ordo.

(PS: I'm not yet on the new page, getting there....)

[Cailín]

Allow me to translate.

Your translation skills leave something to be desired.

Admittedly, I have been playing this game with the cruel disinterest of an ordinary villager with too little time on her hands. So disinterested that when I saw the bandwagon for Legate, I posted before actually realising that he was not playing and the whole thing was staged. :p

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not going to quote all his posts because one is huge and ungainly (and complete rubbish, if you don't mind my saying, mostly just quotes and summaries, which I do too but at least I give my reactions to the quotes) and the rest are essentially one liners. So....

My case against Gollum:
*doesn't post much. Not inherently an evil trait, but we know he could post more, or at least post more little posts saying who he suspects/trusts as opposed to spending a lot of time on a Mac post which tells us nothing.
*doesn't vote. Period. Seriously, he hasn't voted all game (unless I magically X with his vote, that is). Which brings me to....
*his lack of vote on Day One. He could have prevented the double lynch (between two innocents, as we now ALL know) but sat back and refused to vote. We know he was here, we know he could have saved at least one of the lynchees (although I know what a difficult decision it would have been to pick one, but an effort is always appreciated) but he did nothing except comment on the situation.
*supported yesterDay's double lynch, and questioned Gwath about why he thought it was a bad plan. Again, not inherently evil, but worrying.
*isn't following the game terribly well. I don't mean to be rude, as I know I've been fairly complacent too, but it seems like we have a Gil on our hands, except it's a Gil who posts. (Not saying there's anything wrong with Gil, but you all understand the reference.) I generally (again, generally) don't want to kill people for not posting, but in this case I've got enough of a bad feeling that it tips the scales for a ++Gollum to seem like a very good idea. (Not on a separate line, not bolded, so not a vote, fyi.)


Lyrics for Gollum (I'll post some for Cailin/Eomer if a good idea comes to me)

Dancing through life
Skimming the surface
Gliding where turf is smooth
Life's more painless
For the brainless
Why think too hard?
When it's so soothing
Dancing through life
No need to tough it
When you can sluff it off as I do

[satansaloser2005]

Your translation skills leave something to be desired.

Admittedly, I have been playing this game with the cruel disinterest of an ordinary villager with too little time on her hands. So disinterested that when I saw the bandwagon for Legate, I posted before actually realising that he was not playing and the whole thing was staged. :p

Yes, of course I realize that your post regarding Legate was a joke (maybe I didn't specify that, for which I apologize) but my other points still stand.

[satansaloser2005]

Not to be defensive, but Gwath's vote makes no sense. He even says it's random, and I'm always wary of super-random votes at this stage in the game. Of course, I'm also biased, but I thought I would point it out. I'd love to analyze Gwath, but I know I won't have time, so I'm going to go on to other things.

[Cailín]

Yes, of course I realize that your post regarding Legate was a joke (maybe I didn't specify that, for which I apologize) but my other points still stand.

Sally, I said it was not a joke. Eomer took the bandwagon seriously and found it highly suspicious. I took another look and realised it was a joke on your part, but Eomer had already posted. I know, how embarrassing for him. :o

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons. I constantly accuse you... just because I enjoy it. But I guess that with your werewolf philosophy that might not have been a very diplomatic idea.

I have no intention to refute your points. Most of your arguments are just misinterpretation, and I already explained in detail why I pushed for a double-lynch yesterday.

[Macalaure]

Sally's analysis of Cailineomer is grossly biased, but she does have some points that point towards Cailineomer being the cobbler. Critic? No. There's not much more relevant information that the cobbler could pass at this point, so I'm still not really for trying to go after them, unless we can't get a better idea of which two to kill with our two stones.

[Aganzir]

there's only one way that they could know about Agan being a soulmate (I'll get to the significance in a minute) and that's if they are Walter.
Or if Walter had spied on me early enough for the information to reach the critics.
The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live. Tgwbs was after her all the time and hardly ever even mentioned me, apart from writing my name next to hers. One would imagine he was more certain about her.
And I'm not buying her 'she could be a distraction later' explanation.

Anyway thanks sally. I skimmed through their posts but came up with nothing I could add to your analysis.

I was actually suspecting you might be the devo (based on a comment you made yesterDay I believe) but wasn't sure if you were bluffing or real
It occurred to me too but I thought it could also be a cobbler hint. I didn't catch the things in his first post though.

What I meant, Agan, is that I did not consider it very likely that you were a Gifted and especially read your response to Boromir88 as evidence that you were not. In hindsight I see that your reply is ambiguous. I took your defense as either the irrational behaviour of the ordo who does not want to die, or the tricksy words of a villain who wished to buy the critics an extra night.
Thank you - at least now I understand what you were talking about. However I still don't know why you took "I doubt anyone would believe me even if I said I was a gifted" as a proof that I wasn't.

Aganzir, did it occur to you that your kill choices consist only of people who wanted to kill you yesterday? Please, look elsewhere, too. I know I'm not a critic, and I highly doubt that Cailineomer is/are.
Yes, it did. ;) However the certainty of my own innocence is all I have, and I know that anyone who questions it is wrong, either intentionally or accidentally.
Also, it would be hard to find people who didn't think I should be killed yesterday.

But if it comforts you, I am looking elsewhere, too, and I also said that I'm open to suggestions.

edit: xed with some sallys, Cailín & Mac

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, I said it was not a joke. Eomer took the bandwagon seriously and found it highly suspicious. I took another look and realised it was a joke on your part, but Eomer had already posted. I know, how embarrassing for him. :o

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons. I constantly accuse you... just because I enjoy it. But I guess that with your werewolf philosophy that might not have been a very diplomatic idea.

I have no intention to refute your points. Most of your arguments are just misinterpretation, and I already explained in detail why I pushed for a double-lynch yesterday.

Sorry, I meant in retrospect. I'm really tired today and am horrible at putting two (or in this case more) words together.

Anyway, I tried to go through Shasta's posts and found....well, a whole bunch of nothing. Where is he, anyway?

[the phantom]

And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words.
Ha ha! I forgot to point that out. That was my favorite bit. :D
I was just going to wonder whether he was the cobbler, but that hint is too obvious (if noticed).
That's the key- if noticed. If the Critics notice, but no one on the thread says anything about it, they are more likely to think they have spotted Walter. That's one reason I never said anything about it. In addition, at first I thought it was possible that he was the Seer or a Lover attempting to shield himself from the Night-kill. But now that the final Lover has been outed, his ploy can be clearly seen for what it is, so why not point it out to everyone and allow Boro to bask in the light of his quality plotting.
I guess we can now assume that the critics know his identity (unless the cobbler didn't see the hint either). With the soulmates still out there, it's explicable why the wolves abstained from an ordo.
So, you think he's been Walter-spied already? I'm not so sure. Maybe, I guess. But it's also a strong possibility that Walter viewed me and TGWBS on the first two nights. And we must leave open the possibility that Brin was viewed the Night before she was killed, simply because a Walter-spied-Ordo is the safest possible kill for the Critics to make (because they know that person is not the Divo).

[Aganzir]

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons.
You probably wouldn't mind sharing these meta-game reasons, then.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally's analysis of Cailineomer is grossly biased, but she does have some points that point towards Cailineomer being the cobbler. Critic? No. There's not much more relevant information that the cobbler could pass at this point, so I'm still not really for trying to go after them, unless we can't get a better idea of which two to kill with our two stones.

Biased? Heh. If you say so, kiddo.


The reason I've made such a big case against them is exactly because I think they're Walter. Remember that, in a way, Walter is almost more threatening than the wolves themselves. Without Walter, they're left to their own devices and are, to an extent, making blind kills. With Walter, they learn a role a Night and are able to kill off with more precision (if that makes sense, i.e. they may be able to know who the diva/devo is, thus who to avoid, and they may get the identity of gifteds, though that is now a mute point). So when I think I've found the cobbler, which I believe I have, I'm going to go after them. And I'm sure you believe that my bias is because they suspect me; I couldn't care less, as they really have no proof. I just pointed out their suspicion of me because it was so ludicrous, and do in fact note that I mentioned their suspicions of other people (or non-suspicion) in the same way.

[Cailín]

The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live.

Au contraire, Agan, I said:

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

[satansaloser2005]

My last post x'd with Phantom and Agan.


To Phantom: I concur. I'm guessing that either TGWBS was a lucky guess or he was Walter-spied, probably the latter. Boro I don't believe was. You I'm not sure about.

To Agan: Again, I concur. Cailin/Eomer, explain away. :D


EDIT: x'd with Cailin/Eomer.

[Aganzir]

Au contraire, Agan, I said:
But it doesn't make sense. She was suspected by the seer much more heavily whereas I had made an analysis you didn't find good. I have no difficulties deciding which one of those two I'd rather lynch.

Would you guys have anything against me killing Cailín?

[Cailín]

Aganzir, I thought your analysis of Mac was good. I said that if people did not want to double-lynch, we should obviously kill Fea.

Well, I can see where this is going. I can now happily say you are all fools and make you feel bad about yourself. At least I'm not the Divo.

[satansaloser2005]

But it doesn't make sense. She was suspected by the seer much more heavily whereas I had made an analysis you didn't find good. I have no difficulties deciding which one of those two I'd rather lynch.

Would you guys have anything against me killing Cailín?

Actually I was about to suggest that. That way we don't waste a lynch (on the off chance that they're not guilty) but get rid of someone who's highly suspicious. I would prefer them over your other suggestion (Mac) as I suspect them more highly than him.


EDIT: again, x'd with Cailin/Eomer

[Cailín]

You probably wouldn't mind sharing these meta-game reasons, then.

I did not say anything because I'm not sure if it is fair, but if I am to be killed anyway, I do not need to fear mod-fire. I got the impression from the thread that Gollum only confirmed participation long after I received the PM with my role. That would mean that Mith could have only still fit him in as an ordinary. Also, I believe Mith's choices were not entirely random.

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, 15 more minutes and then I may have to disappear. I'll hold my vote as long as possible, and may try to sneak it in after I have to start working (we're not really allowed on the internet during shifts, but I'll risk it :p) but I'm just giving you all a heads up. :)

EDIT: x'd. Dude, we need to stop this x'ing thing. It's getting creepy. ;)

[Aganzir]

Aganzir, I thought your analysis of Mac was good. I said that if people did not want to double-lynch, we should obviously kill Fea.
Whoops sorry, I've been misreading your post all the time, both sentences. :o

[satansaloser2005]

I'm fairly certain Mith's choices were in fact random, Phantom's special role notwithstanding. I'm just saying. Not that it makes a difference, but....meh.

Thanks for explaining, Cailin/Eomer. :)

[Kath]

I'm sorry I'm so late to the Day, I'd got myself confused on times. I wll be around up til the deadline from now.

Agan - 'hear Fea's final aria' means that Cailin/Eomer would rather Fea died. Final aria, as in last song, as in lynch her. Don't get caught up in that because it looks like a mistranslation on your part there.

That said, I read sally's analysis of Cailin/Eomer and actually I rather agree with a lot of it. Many of her points made a lot of sense, especially if you're looking for a Cobbler rather than a Critic. I disliked Mac's seeming dismissal of the whole analysis. The crux of his argument seemed to be that the Cobbler currently had no useful information so why kill them now, whereas I would view the situation as the Cobbler currently has no useful information so let's kill them before they get any.

That's it for right now, I've skimmed the thread and come up with this so far. I'll be around, make a few more posts hopefully, I need to go and read through more carefully first.

[Kath]

Ah and I cross posted with Cailin and Agan who have just sorted out that misunderstanding.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So.

Based on what I've read so far, I think Gollum is the most suspicious. I'm probably losing my touch, though, based on my vote for our Seer earlier in this game.

Man, this DL sucks for me. I'm having to send this in the middle of class!

++Gollum

[Boromir88]

I do not understand your comment, Boro. I can assure you I would have lynched Aganzir for other reasons than difference in philosophy.~Cailin
Didn't say you would, just saying that's not a reason. You let your actions speak for themselves, Agan, I, and others like "talk" to work things through. Not to be arrogant, I'm not too good finding the first wolf (unless if it's by complete luck), but once one falls, I will say I'm a master at getting the others. So, now that one is gone, the wolves would be wise to get rid of me soon, and singers would be unwise to lynch me. ;)

Fea's associations. I'm only looking at the singers we have no idea about (so this will most likely exclude tp, Agan, and anyone dead). Also, I will be excluding myself, it's your job to analyze me, not mine. Anything I say about myself will probably be biased anyway.

I say we try to host a trip-lynch (against Moddess's wishes) for me, Lariren, Gwath, and Boro. Oh, and Mac, for guilt by association. Oh dear, that's not so triple, is it? Woe are my math skill[z]...~Post 24
Calls for a trip, or not so trip-lynching of Lari, Gwath, Mac, and myself.

In her list in post 116...she says some interesting stuff about sally and Lari.
Sally - Typically seems more innocent than she seems now. So while I don't suggest that she's evil, I do suggest that she might be hiding something.
Lariren - Newbie. She can live a good long while unless she does something that is so obviously wolf-like that it would be foolish not to lynch her.
And then Mac:
Macalaure - A lover of epic proportion, he is willing to travel to the ends of the earth for his True Love. In game, though, he's probably not quite so cool. :p
Now what was interesting between sally and Mac on Day 1, both tp and Fea were trying to set them up as the two soulmates. Neither of them are, I doubt both are wolves, but it's possible that Fea was going with tp's plan, to help a buddy.

Her comment about Lari looks suspicious too - it's kind of like let her live for a couple days unless she does something completely wolfish, than it's ok to lynch her. To also add on, I remember in the following days, Fea was quick to agree with my statement that Lari made some brilliant analysis. Fea probably knew she was not going to last the entire game as a critic, so it's possible that she could be setting up and innocent Lari. But, also that quick agreement could have been a strategy to push my feelings that Lari was innocent for her excellent analysis.

Lari will be gone for most the day...correct? And based on this, I would in no way propose we lynch her today, just saying I aint giving her the free days anymore, and I'm definitely taking away those complimentary waffles.

Now with Cailin and Gollum, there's no statements of suspicioun/innocent/guilt at all. It's "Oh Gollum, you played in the very first WW! Talk more." And with Cailin is "Eomer taught me a lot."

Her list of who she wants to vote for on Day 1
Which leaves me with

Sally
Ilya
Brinniel
Gwath
Meneltarmacil
Gollum the Great

Ilya, Brinn, and Menel all innocent. That leaves sally, Gwath, and Gollum. It's possibly Fea would put a wolf here at the beginning, but she also had a pretty healthy list of those she wouldn't vote for, and there's no doubt in me, that one critic (if not both) would be in that list:

She says she won't vote for Lari, because she's a newbie. Lots of people were excluding Lari from day 1. But I think some more interesting things is her two pairings:
Shasta or Nog (I need boys around who think in a more streamlined manner than me)
Bowie or Mac (no warning bells a'ringin')
Nog and Bowie, both being innocent. Did she pair up one of her wolf partners (Shasta or Mac) with an innocent?

The rest of the day I believe is all the code talk business, primarily with tp and me. And her vote for Menel, I don't think there's anything there.

...I wonder if I'll have time for Day 2, but just some groupings as far as Fea's interactions.

Lari - Fea discounts her for being a newbie, and we shouldn't lynch her unless she does something entirely wolfish. This raises the suspicion, now that Fea is a critic, but not enough to go on. Plus, with Lari's absense, I want to wait for a response, pressure on, eh?

With sally and Mac she tries to follow tp, and pair them up as soulmates. Mac is a lover, and sally is hiding a secret, but nothing evil. Also with Mac, she pairs him up with an innocent Bowie on who she won't vote for on Day 1. hmm...

With Cailin, and Gollum, she says things about both of them, but nothing regarding suspicions or feelings (that is at least on Day 1). Maybe she didn't want to give anything away?

And with Kath, nothing stands out as far as what Fea has said. Can't determine anything

Fea said at least one thing about everyone on Day 1, so I think it's clear there's interaction there with her other wolf partners, and she is also probably trying to set up innocent people.

Based on the Day 1 stuff, I'm most suspicious of Mac and sally, followed by Lari and Cailin. For the reasons look above.

Edit: cross posted with everyone multiple times

[Mithalwen]

I did not say anything because I'm not sure if it is fair, but if I am to be killed anyway, I do not need to fear mod-fire. I got the impression from the thread that Gollum only confirmed participation long after I received the PM with my role. That would mean that Mith could have only still fit him in as an ordinary. Also, I believe Mith's choices were not entirely random.

I am not going to confirm or deny my role selection methods :D or comment on roles but I perhaps should say that I had a reserve list of people who had missed the signing up deadline who were ready willing and able to slot in had the maybes pulled out. O

[Cailín]

So, before Sally or Aganzir carelessly kills me, I wish to make some more points (though you do not deserve the benefits of my great intellect, really).

The Critics would not have pushed for a double-lynch yesterday. They stood very little to gain, because the chance that Aganzir was either ordinary or the Cobbler was considerably higher than her being Gifted. In case of ordo-Aganzir, she would have been lynched today and the Critics would have gotten a free ride today, and an extra night-kill. Look for the Critics among those who led their comrade to the individual slaughter without a moment's pause.

The Cobbler will be harder to catch. I can only wish you good luck, you undeserving bunch. :p

Didn't say you would, just saying that's not a reason. You let your actions speak for themselves, Agan, I, and others like "talk" to work things through.

You misjudge me, Boromir. I am very fond of talking. ;)

[Macalaure]

The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live.
More people were going to vote for Fea. If one wants a double lynch, as they clearly did, one has to vote you.

Also, it would be hard to find people who didn't think I should be killed yesterday.

I meant in terms of a double-lynch.

But it's also a strong possibility that Walter viewed me and TGWBS on the first two nights.

But if they spied you, wouldn't they have gotten your actual role (and thus not go after you)? Mith?

And we must leave open the possibility that Brin was viewed the Night before she was killed, simply because a Walter-spied-Ordo is the safest possible kill for the Critics to make (because they know that person is not the Divo).

Possible, though I would say that the chance of killing the soulmate ranks higher than the risk of hitting the diva.

Remember that, in a way, Walter is almost more threatening than the wolves themselves.

What? With the seer and the soulmates known to us? Surely not.


...crossposting since I don't know where... :(

[Macalaure]

The crux of his argument seemed to be that the Cobbler currently had no useful information so why kill them now, whereas I would view the situation as the Cobbler currently has no useful information so let's kill them before they get any.

The only information left is the identity of the diva. Frankly, who cares? We need critics!

[Boromir88]

I won't have time to get into the rest of Fea's post, primarily because I'm most worried about Mac. (I guess you were right, I'm a vote for you that's just waiting to happen).

That double-lynch business just looks wrong. Now why would someone guilty propose it? It looks like a pre-planned strategy. They knew after tgwbs' death Fea was going to get it. So, how about they just cut their losses and try to get someone innocent lynched?

Why Agan then? Take a look at Fea's Day 1 interactions with Agan, it's very playful and fun, add on top of that tgwbs pairing Fea with Agan. The choice is clear - if Fea's going down, it shouldn't be hard to get an innocent Agan down with her.

If you're asking well if Agan was lynched with Fea yesterday and her role revealed, wouldn't Mac be in trouble for proposing it? Possibly, but I think that scenario would be easier to defend, because Agan wouldn't be here. Thus Mac can say - well hey look tgwbs left a confusing message? Why did he pair them together if he hadn't dreamt of them?

However, the plan backfired and today looks like some serious back-pedalling and damage control. But, I think the damage control actually started yesterday. When Mac tried to diffuse suspicion based on those who supported/didn't support/kind of supported the double-lynch.

[Aganzir]

Agan - 'hear Fea's final aria' means that Cailin/Eomer would rather Fea died. Final aria, as in last song, as in lynch her. Don't get caught up in that because it looks like a mistranslation on your part there.
Yeah I realised. And I should know what it means. However I kept thinking of it as her last song at the end of the game so that's why I got confused. :p

I'm probably losing my touch, though, based on my vote for our Seer earlier in this game.
Hey it happens to everyone. Probably more than one of us has been lynched as a gifted at some point of their ww careers. Just keep posting, right?

Thanks for the post, Boro. I'm liking you.

More people were going to vote for Fea. If one wants a double lynch, as they clearly did, one has to vote you.
I said it because I had misunderstood Cailín's post. I do understand that, though. ;)

I meant in terms of a double-lynch.
Well I am not after you just because you suggested double lynching me, don't worry.

I'm feeling rather like killing Mac and Cailín today. It'd be awesome.

edit: xed with Mac & Boro

[the phantom]

But if they spied you, wouldn't they have gotten your actual role (and thus not go after you)? Mith?
But my role was "Opera Ghost". And they saw me, on Day 1, ask for my "Christine". So perhaps they would assume that the Lover pair was indeed Christine and The Phantom of the Opera.
Possible, though I would say that the chance of killing the soulmate ranks higher than the risk of hitting the diva.
In that case, you and a couple others need to go back over Brin's posts, and see what might lead the Critics to believe they had spotted a lover. And more importantly, who would the Critics believe was her other half? For that person must be innocent.

[Kath]

The only information left is the identity of the diva. Frankly, who cares? We need critics!
We do need critics, but I don't see why it would be a bad thing to lynch the Cobbler, which seems to be what you are saying. If the Cobbler finds out who the Diva/o is then we lose the chance of a wasted kill attempt. If it takes us longer to find the Critics than we hope then having the chance of a wasted kill would aid us. Also they count against us in the good/bad tally so again if our numbers diminish too much it would be better not to have them.

[Mithalwen]

I am prepared ot give you the extra time if you want and close at half past since you have a lot to decide?


Any objections?

[Aganzir]

Also they count against us in the good/bad tally
Does xe? I don't think it has been said anywhere.

No objections to extra time Mith. :)

[Macalaure]

My opinions right now, since I've got the feeling that my time is counted and I want to leave you with a little bit:

Kath - I was leaning innocent with her, but her insisting that the cobbler should be lynched before we try to lynch critics made her sky-rocket.

Gwath - nothing new about him... would be most suspicious if it weren't for Kath

Shasta - if there's a submarine, it's him.

Sally - I don't know about her, but I'm more and more getting the idea of an ordo who just happens to be wrong.

Lari - I just have no idea about her. Watch her, please.

Cailineomer - possible cobbler, but I'd be surprised if they are more than that.

Gollum - very likely innocent.

Boro - very, very likely innocent, but please don't give him a free pass.

[Aganzir]

How many would be ok with lynching Mac? Because if we don't lynch him today, I think I'm going to kill him. If we do, I kill Cailín. Probably.

[Macalaure]

Oh, joy.... :rolleyes:

[the phantom]

On the double-lynch business...

A Critic would be okay with supporting a double lynch, knowing that it was unlikely that the attempt would be successful. Remember, Fea and Agan were there with retractable votes to mess things up.

If Agan gets lynched and found innocent, Fea, in my mind, would still have been lynched the following day. Instead Fea got lynched, and today Agan would have been likely were it not for her role. Either way it was likely to work out the same, but it would've been much better to get Agan lynched first. And the only way for that to happen would be to support a double lynch and then have it get screwed up.

Because if we decide not to double lynch, who gets killed? Fea or Agan? Obviously Fea. The evidence was stronger.

And yet, wouldn't it also be a golden opportunity for a Critic to earn trust by supporting the killing of Fea while not supporting the slaying of Agan? If they could get on Agan's side, they would look awfully good. They could logically point out that the evidence pointed more at Fea, and no one would suspect them for it, for it was true.

So the question is, did the Critics decide to play the numbers game with the lynch, or decide to play the trust card and support Agan?

As far as Walter goes, he would not like two potential Critics to be lynched. So perhaps he opposed the double. But, he should have known that if both indeed were Critics, it was extremely unlikely that they'd allow themselves to be double lynched with their retractable votes in their hands. So he could have very safely been a huge supporter of offing two Critics, knowing that it was unlikely that it would come to pass.

[Cailín]

I object to extra time. Aganzir has made up her mind and we all know passion crimes are seldom rational. She shall regret it, but will be acquitted in Italian courts at least. Sally would not be discouraged from suspecting me even if I had a flawless record, because I treated her unkindly. :p

++Gwathagor

Out of the people who seem to be the singer's targets today, I think he is most likely a Critic.

[the phantom]

At least Cailin said she wasn't the Diva. So no disaster should you choose that route.

[satansaloser2005]

I'd rather lynch Gollum.

One-liners from me for the rest of the day. Sorry. :(

[Boromir88]

Extra time? That's not my business to decide, as I won't be around to use it. I've been looking primarily past days and have skim-read what's taken place today. So, I'll take a look through the stuff today, vote and have to go.

[Aganzir]

So it's

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath

With seven votes to come.

[Macalaure]

phantom, both the critics and Walter could have reasons to support either. The question is, how would each approach it? Whatever they do, the critics don't want to end up hanging for it and Walter doesn't accidentally really support the double lynch - he'd rather die himself since the seer is revealed. They all need to have "exit strategies" in their plans.

[Boromir88]

At least Cailin said she wasn't the Divo. So no disaster should you choose that route.~tp
Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo? Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?

[Lariren Shadow]

Back! Meeting done, reading done, grad application done, so now I just have to go back and answer Boro's accusations.

I would truly and dearly appreciate an extra half hour considering the class I would have to run to has been canceled.:Merisu:

[satansaloser2005]

Back! Meeting done, reading done, grad application done, so now I just have to go back and answer Boro's accusations.

I would truly and dearly appreciate an extra half hour considering the class I would have to run to has been canceled.:Merisu:

ditto. More time to sneak. ;)

[Aganzir]

Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo? Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?
Or she's saying it for the sake of bluffing. Or Walter-Cailín wants to get killed instead of a critic.

[Macalaure]

Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo?

I'm not the divo either! :D

[Aganzir]

I'm not the divo either! :D
Good to know. :)

[the phantom]

They all need to have "exit strategies" in their plans.
I agree. The safest way to approach things would be never to be on Fea's side in the first place. Or perhaps to support lynching Fea all day, but towards the deadline begin to waffle, and act like they think they are making a mistake, and then be proven totally wrong (with ignorance pointing towards innocence).
Wouldn't that point to her innocence?
Yep.
Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?
Nah. As far as we know, Walter can still do the whole self-vote-to-clinch-game thing, so why not stick around and do it. The only thing Walter definitely wants at this time is not to be Night-killed. So I imagine about now he's hoping for a bit of suspicion to come his way, to preserve him through the Night. He's still useful, either as an opera-clincher, or at the least lynch fodder to protect the Critics.

[Kath]

Kath - I was leaning innocent with her, but her insisting that the cobbler should be lynched before we try to lynch critics made her sky-rocket.
YesterDay we lynched Fea under the assumption that she was the Cobbler not a Critic. We turned out to be even luckier but still.

[Macalaure]

YesterDay we lynched Fea under the assumption that she was the Cobbler not a Critic. We turned out to be even luckier but still.

And if she had been the cobbler and Aganzir a critic it would have been a clear mistake.

[Boromir88]

I'm not the divo either! :D~Mac
Well then...

++Mac

Now are you? :D

[Macalaure]

Now are you? :D

No, I'm still not the divo. :p

[Aganzir]

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence. Just because it seems like a natural thing to say when in danger of being killed. Plus I could have said so, regardless of my role, if in the same situation.

++Mac

edit: xed with Mac

[Kath]

And if she had been the cobbler and Aganzir a critic it would have been a clear mistake.
No because had Agan been a Critic then we'd have lynched her toDay. The only reason we didn't lynch her was because she had evidence that she was something else. Therefore we'd have lynched both the Cobbler and a Critic in two Days, its not a bad rate of getting baddies.

[Macalaure]

++Sally

I think she's more suspicious than Gollum, and those two are the only ones that could save me, though I very much don't like following Gwath's vote.

[the phantom]

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence.
Yes it does. It definitely does.

But that doesn't mean that she is innocent. It could mean she is guilty, but is well aware that such a statement would point to her innocence, and so she makes it.

[the phantom]

Good man, Mac. Someone needed to make Sally squirm under some pressure.

[Macalaure]

Therefore we'd have lynched both the Cobbler and a Critic in two Days, its not a bad rate of getting baddies.

Not a bad rate, true, but given tgwbs's information, it would have been the most basic success rate we could have had in that case.

[Boromir88]

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence. Just because it seems like a natural thing to say when in danger of being killed.~Agan
Well the ultimate hope for the critic would be to draw out the real divo, not necessarily to save themselves. This would assume however the critics don't know who the divo is, and is just trying to draw them out so not to waste a kill.

If they already know, I agree, but because they probably wouldn't want to draw the divo out giving us a known innocent.

[Macalaure]

What's the deadline now, Mith?

[Lariren Shadow]

Her comment about Lari looks suspicious too - it's kind of like let her live for a couple days unless she does something completely wolfish, than it's ok to lynch her. To also add on, I remember in the following days, Fea was quick to agree with my statement that Lari made some brilliant analysis. Fea probably knew she was not going to last the entire game as a critic, so it's possible that she could be setting up and innocent Lari. But, also that quick agreement could have been a strategy to push my feelings that Lari was innocent for her excellent analysis.

Lari will be gone for most the day...correct? And based on this, I would in no way propose we lynch her today, just saying I aint giving her the free days anymore, and I'm definitely taking away those complimentary waffles.

Lari - Fea discounts her for being a newbie, and we shouldn't lynch her unless she does something entirely wolfish. This raises the suspicion, now that Fea is a critic, but not enough to go on. Plus, with Lari's absense, I want to wait for a response, pressure on, eh?


Well damn, I liked those waffles.

To the point: well, what if I had done something wolfish? Like obviously know some roll the cobbler gave? That would be suspicious right? So then everyone would obviously want to lynch me and I would be dead. I'm innocent, though, and haven't done anything wolfish.

For Fea agreeing with what I said well, Ilya did too. For all I know Fea could have been encouraging me to keep posting and to play again(as she has been trying to get me to play since August).

I wish I had more time to go through this.

On the note of the double-lynch: I was sort of for one yesterday, but if only to get Fea(who was obviously evil) and one of the players that was very inactive. But then they were mod-fired so it all worked out. I just, well, what if Strongbow was a critic and won because we never did lynch him out of the game and just survived to the end? I thought that wouldn't be too fair. An excellent strategy, if not caught, but horrible for everyone else.

[Lariren Shadow]

Voting based on old suspicions(if deadline extended then might retract):

++Mac

[Macalaure]

Mith! Please extend the deadline! :D

[Boromir88]

No, I'm still not the divo. :p~Mac
I don't have the luxury of second guessing myself today. If I'm wrong, may I take that shoe Nog and Brinn are still probably chomping on to this day.

[Macalaure]

I don't have the luxury of second guessing myself today. If I'm wrong, may I take that shoe Nog and Brinn are still probably chomping on to this day.

French Fries with that? ;)

[Aganzir]

There are 10 of us alive, plus phantom. In the worst case we lynch an innocent, I kill an innocent, and the wolves kill an innocent. It would mean there are seven people alive tomorrow (plus phantom), two of whom critics and one cobbler. So three against four (or five). Of course the diva/divo could come out then which would even the things a bit.

Mith I think I'd like to kill Cailín.

[Mithalwen]

Is that your final decision?

[Kath]

I don't know that I think Mac is necessarily the most suspicious person toDay. I still like sally's analysis of Cailin/Eomer and I think they're more suspicious. Mac is jumping down everyone's throats which does say 'something to hide' though.

Therefore:

++CAILIN/EOMER

I'll be around til the deadline anyway but I am distracted so I thought I'd better get that in now.

[Aganzir]

Is that your final decision?
Yeah.

[Macalaure]

Sally 2 (Gwath & me)
Mac 3 (Boro, Agan, Lari)
Gollum 1 (Shasta)
Cailineomer 1 (Kath)
Gwath 1 (Cailin)

Left: Sally, Gollum

[Kath]

Oh wait - if Agan is just going to kill Cailin/Eomer anyway I guess I need to make more of a useful vote. I'll have a think and then retract.

[Aganzir]

Mac, Cailín voted for Gwath.

[Mithalwen]

Will insert proper death scene here in time but since this is critical I must tell you that Cailin is an ordo.

[Aganzir]

Ouch. Okay. Sorry Cailín. Well at least she won't serve as a distraction anymore though.

[Macalaure]

Oh no, I overlooked the vote for Gwathagor. Right now, his death is as likely as Sally's. I should have voted him instead of her. Does nobody want to go either way?

[Mithalwen]

Cailin's vote will stand but she may play no further part in discussions.

[the phantom]

If I'm wrong, may I take that shoe Nog and Brinn are still probably chomping on to this day.
And you know precisely where to find shoes, don't you? ;)

[Macalaure]

Shall we try and not make it two ordos today?

[Lariren Shadow]

Votes:

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath
Boro: Mac
Agan: Mac
Mac: sally
Lari: Mac
Kath: Cailin

Mac 3, sally 2, Gwath, Gollum, and Cailin 1

Bah! If I retract my vote then we end up with a double lynch again! Actually, it would be a triple lynch:eek: because I'm sort of leaning towards Gollum looking things over.

[Aganzir]

Let's just avoid multiple lynches right?

[Macalaure]

Lari, 3-1 < 2+1, no double lynch if you retract to Sally (or Gwath, because then I'll retract t o him)

[Mithalwen]

Votes:

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath
Boro: Mac
Agan: Mac
Mac: sally
Lari: Mac
Kath: Cailin

Mac 3, sally 2, Gwath, Gollum, and Cailin 1

Bah! If I retract my vote then we end up with a double lynch again! Actually, it would be a triple lynch:eek: because I'm sort of leaning towards Gollum looking things over.


I think I said I wouldn't allow more thabn a double lynch and I am not keen on those. I will check what I actually posted....

[Aganzir]

*bangs her head on the wall*

Heck I should just have waited before killing Cailín argh argh argh.

[the phantom]

I think it's amusing that Fea, Mac, and Boro all voted together on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3.

[Mithalwen]

You get retractable votes and may double lynch though this isn't encouraged. More than 2 and the moddess will flip coins or something.

[Lariren Shadow]

Lari, 3-1 < 2+1, no double lynch if you retract to Sally (or Gwath, because then I'll retract t o him)

It would be no Mac, vote Gollum so it would turn to: Mac 2, Gollum 2, Sally 2.

[Aganzir]

I'd rather we didn't even take a risk of lynching the diva/divo. And I'd rather we didn't double lynch.

If we double lynch two innocents today, it's 3-3 tomorrow.

Mith does the cobbler count as innocent?

[Macalaure]

It would be no Mac, vote Gollum so it would turn to: Mac 2, Gollum 2, Sally 2.

Well, I guess I would retract to Gollum, too, if I could save myself....

[Lariren Shadow]

Mac:
Would you? I mean, I feel bad about this, but he really hasn't voted at all and by this point its getting very suspicious.

[Macalaure]

I don't really like to, but...

--Sally

++Gollum

[Aganzir]

I'm getting paranoid about everyone.

And Gollum isn't very loud by nature. He's never been. There's nothing odd in his silence and I wouldn't like it that he was voted out now instead of Mac just because of that.

edit: xed with Mac

[Kath]

I'm not going to vote til I know what's going on, I don't want to cross post and cause a double lynch.

[Aganzir]

Kath the sooner you vote the smaller the risk as you (or someone else) can always retract.

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath
Boro: Mac
Agan: Mac
Mac: sally
Lari: Mac
Kath: Cailin
Mac: --sally ++Gollum

Mac 3, Gollum 2, sally, Gwath and Cailin 1

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm getting paranoid about everyone.

Isn't that what the game is?

--Mac

++Gollum

And I've heard about him, but still, no votes at all. It just gets to me.

[Mithalwen]

I'd rather we didn't even take a risk of lynching the diva/divo. And I'd rather we didn't double lynch.

If we double lynch two innocents today, it's 3-3 tomorrow.

Mith does the cobbler count as innocent?

Yes but of course if Walter survives to the final showdown he isn't going to help the ordos.

[Aganzir]

Kath any chance you could vote Mac? That Gollum thing between him and Lari just looks awfully bad.

[the phantom]

You're going to lynch poor Smeagol? I would have thought, as a tribute to her now proven innocence, you would have granted Cailin her point about Gollum being an innocent.

[Macalaure]

Lari, thankyouthankyouthankyouthankyouthankyou

*phew*

[satansaloser2005]

Someone wanna retract Mac and vote Gollum? Otherwise I'm abstaining.

I may think Mac is potentially guilty, but I don't want to lynch him. ToDay, anyway.

[Lariren Shadow]

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath
Boro: Mac
Agan: Mac
Mac: sally
Lari: Mac
Kath: Cailin
Mac: --sally ++Gollum
Lari: --Mac ++Gollum

Gollum 3, Mac 2, sally 2, Gwath and Cailin 1

[Aganzir]

Grrrrrrrrrrr

*beats herself a bit more*

[satansaloser2005]

Never mind, miscounted.

++Gollum

[Kath]

You know I seem to have missed something - why is everyone suddenly desperate to save Mac?

[Aganzir]

Perhaps Lari and sally are a critic and a cobbler...

[satansaloser2005]

You know I seem to have missed something - why is everyone suddenly desperate to save Mac?


I'm not, I just want Gollum lynched more. ;)


EDIT: Saw the news about Cailin/Eomer. Crap crap crap! :(

[Aganzir]

I would be almost ready to risk a double lynch if it means we can dispose of Mac.

[Macalaure]

You know I seem to have missed something - why is everyone suddenly desperate to save Mac?

I would like to know why everyone was so desperate to kill me before... :rolleyes:

Actually, only Lari wanted to save me. *crosses fingers that she's not a critic*

[Aganzir]

Why Is Gollum Actually Suspicious?

edit: apparently downs won't accept caps

[the phantom]

You know I seem to have missed something - why is everyone suddenly desperate to save Mac?
Everyone else is doing it. Don't you want to be cool too?

[Lariren Shadow]

I wasn't desperate to save him, but I was thinking a lot about changing my vote to Gollum and since Mac would go along with me to save himself it seemed like a good option. No possible double/triple lynch/Moddess anger about those and I would get someone I thought was suspicious gone.

I'm not a critic or cobbler though.

[Aganzir]

Kath it's two minutes.

[Macalaure]

Kath, we will very likely kill three innocents on one day if you vote for me...

[Aganzir]

Gollum is almost certainly innocent which means tomorrow is going to look pretty dark.

I just surpassed Boro in post count.

[Aganzir]

Kath please

[the phantom]

Ninjas! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtR2m20C2YM)

China! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ4K0hHin9s&NR=1)

And Monkeys! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ7J7UjsRqg)

Oh my!

[Aganzir]

I'm rather happy I'm most likely dead by tomorrow.

[Kath]

Agan I am not going to deliberately cause a double lynch by voting Mac!

[Gollum the Great]

Just in time!

Let me tell you you guys are making a big mistake in killing me.

++Mac

[Mithalwen]

Time out... need to check votes.

[Macalaure]

Alright, Kath, vote for me... let's just not make this a double lynch... :(

[Aganzir]

Well now it IS a double lynch.

edit: xed with Mith & Mac

[the phantom]

Oh boy.

[satansaloser2005]

*mutters*

[Kath]

Ok well if Gollum's going to do that then:

--CAILIN

++MAC

No idea if I'm in time.

EDIT: Bah, am not.

[the phantom]

Fyi, I don't think Gollum's vote counts.

[satansaloser2005]

Ok well if Gollum's going to do that then:

--CAILIN

++MAC

No idea if I'm in time.




Don't think so. Valiant effort though.

*mutters some more*

Well, at least Gollum finally voted. :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

Just in time!

Let me tell you you guys are making a big mistake in killing me.

++Mac


Oooo! Oooo! He didn't make it in time! He didn't make it in time!!! :D

[Gollum the Great]

Well, at least Gollum finally voted. :rolleyes:

Yeah, that's about what I think.

[Mithalwen]

Since I have to be consistent from Day 1 . Day ended at 6.30 dead by the downs clock.

[Lariren Shadow]

Well, at least Gollum finally voted. :rolleyes:

Yeah and now I'm not sure about my vote.:(

[Mithalwen]

Gollum goes. he was an ordo.....

I have a glut of deaths to do. Critics I will pass on Walter's gen. Walter PM .

[Mithalwen]

Sorry due ot RL I was late getting online and have only just got the kill choice...

Will get to backfilling... straight away but you have lost Mac the Ordo....

Remaining
Sally, soprano
Lariren , soprano, Ithilien
Kath contralto
Aganzir, Minas Tirith contralto
Gwathagor (Gwathagorio), lyric tenor/spinto Sindar of Eriador
Shastanis Althreduin (tenor leggierio / lyric tenor)
Boromir 88 basso profundo, Rohan


You're not singing anymore:

Meneltarmacil - baritone err Nazgul from Minal Morgul ORDO
Nogrod - lyric tenor in the end, Old Forest ORDO
Ilya, mezzo-soprano, vales of Anduin. ORDO
TGWBS - bass, woodwose, SEER
Feanor of the Peredhil, Belfalas (mezzo-)soprano CRITIC
Strongbow, Bowissimo of Lossarnach SOULMATE
Brinniel, mezzo-soprano, Harad ORDO
Cailineomer, trouser role, Forodwaith ORDO
Gollum the Great - bass-baritone ORDO
Macalaure (Barney Broadbottle), a Bree-lander from Staddle, Baritone ORDO

You're not voting anymore.

The Phantom (Opera Ghost)

[Boromir88]

Hmm...Mac, interesting choice.

[Boromir88]

And you know precisely where to find shoes, don't you? ;)~tp
I don't know why I do this to myself, no one will ever trust me again...ever. I wouldn't even trust myself from this point on. :rolleyes:

[the phantom]

Gah! I even tried to make him look a bit suspicious. And with the save-Mac vote yesterday, surely the Critics could've made some hay out of that. Drat. I wanted him around at the end.

Well, so much for that. At least Scar can still be trusted.

By the way, the count is 5-2, with one of the 5 on the Critic side of the table.

So if you don't lynch a baddie today, and the Critics kill Agan overnight, the tally tomorrow will be 3-2 with Walter there to cast a self-vote for the win.

So yeah... possibly the final day here. Now is when it would've been nice not to double lynch on Day 1 and lose someone to Mod-fire.

[Mithalwen]

Yes my darling but Bowie still hasn't picked up the message I sent him... so ...and at the time I thought removing him benefitted the village most (though I had representation from both sides) ... And if I had flexed the deadline to save Nog day 1 I would have had to flex yesterday and double lynch then so it evens out...

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so I'm an idiot. Yes, I was wrong, yes, I suck at this, but don't kill me. Or at least, if you kill me (for I take a fair bit of responsibility for yesterDay) at least kill a critic along with me.

I meant to point out yesterDay that Mac was right about Walter. Now that the only unknown role is the diva/devo Walter's really not a lot of use to the critics. But he still gives them a bit of advantage, as if he/she finds the diva/devo the critics know who not to kill. But I do see his point. (I got off work about 15 minutes before DL yesterDay but didn't have time to put in any additional posts besides the short ones I did at the end)

Anyway, we know that Agan is innocent, I know that I am innocent, and I think that Boro is innocent. That leaves Lari, Kath, Gwath, and Shasta. I'm going to look at votes and things (though my real work will probably be after I get off work, as I get off in half an hour and I concentrate better when I'm at home and not jittery)

Anyway, for now I'm out. Back soon.

[the phantom]

Mith dear, I was not complaining about your decisions at all. The double-lynch and mod-fire was a direct result of the actions of the singers. We should not have allowed the circumstances that led to those deaths.

[the phantom]

Anyone have a vote summary from yesterday? It would be nice.

[satansaloser2005]

Anyone have a vote summary from yesterday? It would be nice.

If there isn't one up when I get off work (~10-15 minutes) I'll do one before I go to class.

[Boromir88]

I'm done with the gloom and bleak outlook...the news was a bad choice for me. I turn on the tube and they're testing what happens when you throw a large goose into a jet engine. Ugh...