Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth [Archive] - Page 2

McCaber

10-16-2009, 10:00 AM

The day began with confusion. Not one, but four of the villagers immediately claimed to have been gifted by Our Father Below. Pitchwife had made his dreams clear yesterday, while Morsul threw up a quick counterclaim before laughing and saying it was all a joke and we're all going to die alone and unloved. Hakon and wilwa both stepped up to argue that point using advanced theological theory, and before they knew it they had each claimed the priesthood.

A strange four-way standoff developed, with the rest of the village choosing the sides they wanted to prevail. This lasted for a time, with no real gains being made by any faction.

Until once again someone noticed that strange child simply staring at the sky. Shouts began to rise from the crowd. "There she goes again with her talk of how the ocean will be like tomorrow." "Yeah, doesn't she know that only the Father and his servants have that kind of power?" "We cannot let such an affront go unpunished, especially in the chosen city."

By this time, both priests were in favor of execution for heresy charges. The locals quickly agreed. Before anyone else could react, three of the Order's acolytes had already grabbed her. "'Follow me!," both the priests said. And so the procession moved off towards the Esoteric Order of Dagon.

The doors were thrown wide open, and the town marched in all the way to the holiest sanctum. After a short sermon of condemnation, a pit in the floor was opened. The few who dared to look inside lost a little bit of themselves and their lunches, and drew back as far as they could. The only sound anyone could hear was an animalistic cry of "Tekeli-li!" again and again. The girl was slowly moved towards the edge.

A push, a drop, a wet sort of crunch, and the pit was covered again. And so night fell.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Pitchwife, heretical organist
Loslote, humble seamstress
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

NIGHT 3, FOLKS. GIFTED AND WEREWOLVES, HAND OVER THE NAMES.

Nogrod

10-16-2009, 10:00 AM

I see Nogrod has just accused Roa of being a wolf. That looks quite evil, the way he did it. Hmmn.It's what she does when she's evil = gets me lynched... :eek:

McCaber

10-17-2009, 06:45 AM

After their spiritual experience, the villagers separated out into the night and crawled back into their various holes.

Let's take a closer look at one of them. Kitanna, for instance. Even now she's already back at her house (or at least what's left of it after that unfortunate incident a few years back). She gives a soft sigh and opens the door. Inside, it's a mess. Sure, she means well, but there's only so much one can do in such a terrible setting. The bed in the corner is aged to pieces, a decrepit sink sits useless in the corner, and half the windows are shattered.

The one piece of beauty left in here is a single portrait hanging on the east wall. A young man with a far-off expression on his face; sweetly rendered even though the colors are long past their prime. She sits on the bed and stares at him for almost an hour. "Has it really been that long since then?" she whispers. "Twenty years to the night, and you still look as beautiful as ever." And the expression on her face changes. She gathers up her cloak and once more steps into the night.

Her steps lead her to the cliffs just outside of town. "This is where we would sit and watch the reef, on nights like this, with the full moon ..."

"The full moon! Gracious Lord, what am I doing?" She turns to run back, and the two shapes who followed her here move to cut her off.

"Now what sort of wolves would we be if we just let you go?" she hears. "At least make it a challenge for us," the other one snarls. All Kitanna can do is freeze in her tracks. Two quick slashes and it's all over. "That was hardly worth it. Throw her over and let's be done with it."

Her body bounces once off the cliff and then splashes into the ocean. The wolves depart hastily. All is still.

The villagers found her pulled onto shore that morning. The fishy smell on her lips was easily explained as seawater, and the large tracks around her body were wiped clean by the rising tides. But some, the wisest of the village, half-remembered a sound of weeping coming from the dark oceans late last night. And they remember the oldest of stories.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen [ordinary villager]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Pitchwife, heretical organist
Loslote, humble seamstress
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

IT IS NOW OFFICIALLY DAY 3.

wilwarin538

10-17-2009, 10:26 AM

All of Kit's posts, don't think I missed any.

Ok, sorry, just got home from work. I'll be on now for a little over an hour reading and commenting. Whatever I don't get to before I go to bed I will finish when I wake up (roughly four hours before DL). So for now I'm off to read what I've missed.

A lot of the early posts were "Day 1, bleh" or "DL isn't good for me Day 1 or Day 2" or "Good list Spm". For the most part not much other than "hey I'm here" posts. Which is fine.

A Little Green mentions all that I just did in her first post (post #11). Still Greenie does provide something to go on other than the afore mentioned posts. After her first two posts it seems the conversation turns away from usual Day 1 jabber into some more substantial.

Legate comes in next, commenting on what's been said so far. At this point he takes somewhat of a wait and see attitude, wanting to give those who haven't appeared a chance to speak.

Greenie brought this point up as well about the loud/quiet thing. Inziladun later comments on this as well. Personally, I think it's easier to tell if someone is quiet as a playing style or quiet to hide guilt after Day 2, but that's just how I've seen it in the past.

Wilwa makes a point here that I'm inclined to agree with and yet wonder about at the same time:

Now she makes a good point about how useful all these posts will be on Day 2. However, she calls for people to make noise and if some players have nothing to add than it'll be just white noise (adding absolutely nothing substantial for Day 2). Wilwa does this herself by stating how Day 1 is hectic and random, a well established fact at this point. Wilwa acknowledges this as stating the obvious, which adds white noise. That makes me wonder.

Later Wilwa defends this from Nogrod:

I'm not sure if I agree with that. It's good to post at least once before voting, but I don't think it's such a good idea to say next to nothing. Of course it's really a Catch-22.

In Post 31 the first vote is cast for Nienna by Morsul. I know he's inexperienced, but I'm baffled by his choice.

Back to Wilwa:

I think she has some sound advice trying not to look at vote counts. Of course I doubt many will actually do this, but I think that's a decent idea.

In general comments (because I'm falling asleep): I think Craydon puts forth an interesting idea, though I fail to see it as practical.
Morsul's vote, confused at best. Nienna's response to it, justified. The situation, amusing.
Hakon votes for Inziladun, mmmm. Granted Hakon had to vote early, but voting based on games past seems a bit dodgy.
Like Hakon, Loslote and Craydon had to vote early, but I can't find any reasoning for their votes.
(sorry these last comments are rushed)

I have some more comments to make and few more players to bring up, but I would like to review some posts with a clear head before saying anything else.

That's shenanigans my dear Brinn, simple shenanigans. ;)

Seriously though I've had some time to mull things over and clear my head. So before continuing where I left off last night I have a few general comments to make.

1) In regards to voting early, namely Loslote and Crayon. Neither one gave a reason, not even a terrible reason like "I picked this name out of a hat." Hakon also voted early, but he had a reason for his choice (not a good reason, but a reason). I see I'm not the only one who thinks like this:

2) Morsul's vote, not his own confused vote, but Nienna's reaction and reactions to Nienna's reaction. Nienna became annoyed, or maybe angry is a better word, when she discovered Morsul's faulty reasoning for his vote for her. She stated she didn't like being voted for in such a manner. This had Legate saying:

And Nogrod agrees with it.
Morsul makes a comment on the subject too:

Now, Nienna does react unusually strong to Morsul's vote. But, and please someone correct me if I'm wrong, at the time of Morsul's vote Nienna hadn't spoken yet had she? I myself was annoyed and angry Morsul listed me as a suspect in one of his earliest posts based on the narration. I see where Nienna's response would be seen as a red flag, but I'm having a hard time finding it overly suspicious.

3) I spoke considerably on Wilwa's suggestion for everyone to talk more, regardless of what they said in my last post and I'd like to finish up a thought on that.
But Day 1s are sooo useful on Day 2s, therefore we should all help ourselves out and post anyway, even if we have nothing to say or add. Just so that toMorrow we'll have something on everyone!
As I said before she makes a good point about these posts helping on Day 2, but this suggestion worries me as well. If we have half the village just repeating the same things or just doing random in character gibberish then we have nothing Day 2 and it essentially becomes almost like a second Day 1. I think everyone should post, but if people flood the thread with nonsense it becomes just as easy for wolves to hide behind that as it is to hide behind a mask of quietness. Wilwa should know this and that makes me wonder why she put the idea of "make lots of noise" out there in the first place.

Well I'm off to finish what I started before bed. I'll be around and hopefully posting until half an hour before DL.[/QUOTE]

I'm inclined to agree with you about her vote, but for different reasons. It seems stranger to me that she would accuse him of not having sound logic having played so many games in the past, considering I feel the same way about her own suggestion of making noise.

I feel this is just a matter of how different players react to different scenarios. I probably would have reacted the same as Nienna, which is why I'm willing to take her reaction as a panicked innocent rather than a panicked wolf. I'd rather see what how Nienna reacts when she receives a vote that is more than just a newbie's confusion. If the reaction is the same, then perhaps there's some merit to what Legate and Nogrod have said. For now I prefer to wait and see when it comes to Nienna.

I wonder if this is just Brinn's playing style though? I can't recall Brinn's first few posts, in any game, ever being more than "fluff".

Edit: x-posted with Pitchwife

Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further".

So then does that mean you find something unusual about his playing style and/or vote? I'm confused because this is really the first mention you've made of who you suspect and I'm not even sure you suspect him.
And Nienna probably won't be on again to answer my queries before Day 1 ends, but why Pitchwife? I realize this is a random/gut vote, but what Pitchwife say to give you a gut feeling in the first place?

I got called into work early, so I have to vote now.

I'm starting to wonder about Nienna based on her vote. That's not enough for me to vote for her though. I'm curious as to what she has to say regarding it. That said...

++ Wilwa

I've said before what I think of Wilwa and her idea, no need to repeat them in their entirety. In short, to me it looks like she could be calling for noise to hide in. Her vote doesn't help her either. She voted for Hakon based on his vote, accusing him of something that she is doing herself. Maybe I'm completely misjudging Wilwa, but right now she looks the most unusual to me.

Day 2

Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen all are players SpM mentioned beyond his first in character post. I think that's everyone at least. In his vote post he mentioned being wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen, and in the end voted for Loslote.

Now since it was only Day 1 I wonder how much distant he would have put between himself and the other wolves. I'm going to believe Pitchwife is telling us the truth because I doubt a baddie would do a false reveal so early, especially with only mediocre suspicion around them. So that leaves Inzil, Larien, Loslote, and Nerwen as SpM suspects. Based on SpM's vote I'm the least wary of Loslote. However, I'm going to go check out their posts, as well as the posts of the other people SpM mentioned in seriousness.

As for Greenie she was probably a no trace kill.

Ok off to review some posts.

Inzil
Post 1: In character
Post 2: Comments on a post made by Greenie. Mentions there is a difference between playing style and a "a non-entity that slips quietly through the cracks"
Post 4: Thinks Nogrod and SpM overreacted to Pitchwife's first post.
Post 5: Comments on Craydon's idea of asking questions of the village.
Post 7: Comments on Hakon's vote. Mentions SpM, but it looks like this is only an example of not using meta-game voting.
Post 8: Throws some suspicion Loslote's way. Also he mentions Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote as seeming a bit odd. Decides to stay away from Craydon based on newness and Hakon for being his usual self.
Post 10: Asks Pitchie if revelation was a bit premature.
Post 11: Votes SpM
Post 12: Says Pitchie could be the agent, but decides whatever happens on Day 1 will give us something for Day 2.
The posts I left out weren't anything of real interest, mostly just quick responses to this or that.
In conclusions, Inzil doesn't seem good or bad either way. He voted like everyone else did after the reveal so there's nothing to go on there. He mentioned all three of the knowns (SpM, Greenie, and Pitchie), but didn't really say much about any of them. As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Lariren
Post 1: Mostly Day 1 jabber. Agrees we should stay positive about catching a wolf that day.
Post 2: Puts a little suspicion out there on SpM, suggesting he could have been trying to hint to the wolves to "play their parts". Suggests Hakon may be trying to throw off suspicion by throwing it on SpM. Questions Loslote's jump on Craydon's idea.
Post 3: Vote count, lists suspects. Loslote, Hakon, SPM, and Brinn make her need watching list. Wilwa alone falls in the "keep them around" list.
Post 4: Explains what she meant about keeping Wilwa around, wanted to say seems innocent in a new way. Mentions Nienna's reaction to her vote, but doesn't find it anything special. Another vote count.
Post 5: Wary of Pitchie's reveal, says she'll vote SpM or possibly Hakon.
To me Lariren seems a bit more dodgy than Inzil, but not by a lot. In her list she says who she wants to watch and why, but doesn't say much else about what she thinks. Her vote for SpM isn't a surprise and I think she might have voted that way regardless of the reveal.

That's what I have time for now. ToDay is a bad day for me because of work. I'll be around for an hour or so in a few hours then I'll reappear once more about four hours before DL. I'll finish my looks into those SpM suspected and talked about later.

Didn't see anymore posts from her, so unless I missed some I'm assuming she didn't come back.
So she posted much more on Day 1 then on Day 2, and nothing yesterday really stands out to me. So I'm guessing she was yet another no-trail kill, unless someone sees something I don't.

Curious to know who Pitch dreamt of??

I only have about half an hour and then I have to work, for a long time, it sucks cause when I signed up for this game I had today off, but someone called in sick and now I have to go in. ToDay is going to be just dreadful for me. :(

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 10:30 AM

Hi, I'm here. I'm going through Kit's posts.

As a side note: It's totally unnecessary to repost all of the posts that a person made to analyze them. Summarize, people. Summarize.

wilwarin538

10-17-2009, 10:34 AM

Hi, I'm here. I'm going through Kit's posts.

As a side note: It's totally unnecessary to repost all of the posts that a person made to analyze them. Summarize, people. Summarize.

I just find it way easier for myself to quote them all and then read them all together (everyone's got their methods), and I don't really have time to summarize today anyway.

Craydon1

10-17-2009, 10:34 AM

I'm jumping on to let people know that I will be on today, but probably toward the end. So not much from me till later. If I can get on my friend's internet later than I'll post.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 10:35 AM

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 10:47 AM

I hate that I was wrong about Nienna. The manner in which Wilwa climbed onto that made me very uneasy, but I was up against the wall for time, and decided to stick with my best guess and hope for the best.

I think we should individually look at Kitanna's posts, and not trust anyone in particular to do it for us. That keeps a wolf from deceiving us, and also gives the possibility one might pick up on something others missed.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

They also kept away from the Priest claimants, when they could have likely gotten either of them. Perhaps they thought it would sow more confusion among us if we still have doubts about who to trust. Leaving the Dreamer around another Night could be highly dangerous for them, or at least I'm hoping so. I'm anxious to hear Pitch's dream, as long as it wasn't Kitanna. :rolleyes:

wilwarin538

10-17-2009, 10:49 AM

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

Like I said yesterDay, because if they killed Pitch it would be obvious that Hakon is lying (since he was supposedly protecting him), just like if they killed me it would be obvious Hakon's lying. They want him to continue to look good. I actually wouldn't be surprised if all three of us are alive yet again tomorrow (or if any of us die it'll be me, since I will protect Pitch tonight, and Hakon is one of them) but they may just leave us all be, make Hakon look good and hope to make me look bad, to see how long they can fool everyone, I don't know, it's hard to say what kind of risks they're willing to take. We're actually kind of lucky Hakon falsly revealed, because it's getting us more seer dreams then we would have had otherwise. If he hadn't of done that Pitch would have probably been killed last Night. This way we're getting atleast 2 more seer dreams then we would have had.

x'ed with inzil

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 10:50 AM

Alrighty... Sorry about those last minutes yesterDay. I hadn't have time enough to get a firm hold of the situation and when I realised that Roa was trying to get me lynched just that easily some pretty nasty memories filled my mind. And looking at her influence in here it was actually quite a realistic scenario she could have succeeded.

Ironically, your reaction to my suspicion reminded me of a familiar scenario. I goes like this:

Innocent Roa: "Your logic is flawed!"
Innocent Nogrod: "Your argument has no basis!"
Both: "Rawrsnarlgrrhiss!" *attempt to kill each other*
Wolves: "ROFL!!!!!!"

I couldn't have lynched you if other people hadn't also suspected you as well. And Nerwen, no, it doesn't look evil, because Nogrod always automatically suspects people who suspect him. It's just his way.

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

Because A. They're afraid of the ranger. B. They're playing a very risky game. C. I leave a humongous trail of evidence to follow. D. I almost always get myself lynched when innocent. People don't believe this, which I find humorous, given my ratio of games played to games survived is much lower than my ratio of times as wolf to games played ratio. It's a fact- I'm lynchable no matter how many people "trust" me, because eventually they decide to lynch me on principal.

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 10:53 AM

Besides, the last few minutes of the previous Day set the tone and made it clear that you at least would come after me, so why kill me off and save the village from one massive distraction?

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 11:15 AM

Well, my results of looking at Kit's posts suggest that her main suspect was Wilwa. That's who she voted for on Day 1 (she doesn't seem to have voted on Day 2). She didn't like Wilwa's Day 1 vote aginst Hakon.
She did an analysis of Lari and me, thinking Lari looked slightly 'dodgier'.
Other than this, my best guess is they went for her because, as Roa said, she hadn't been seriously suspected of anything and it was unlikely they could get her lynched. There were (and are) better candidates for their efforts on that score, including me.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 11:16 AM

Just one more speculation at this hour...

Now clearly the fact that the wolves didn't try to kill Pitchie - which we should know for certain as Kit died - would point towards Hakon being actually the real ranger and thus cast the suspicion on wilwa.

Now didn't they have any other choices or was it their intention to make wilwa look bad?

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

Why I'm thinking about these things now then? Well looking at how indecisive the "results" of the last Night are I have not a too optimistic view on how the Nightly kills will enlighten us on the issue.

And Nerwen, no, it doesn't look evil, because Nogrod always automatically suspects people who suspect him. It's just his way.Not exactly. I suspect those people who time their efforts to lynch me when innocent too nicely - or make a too heavy effort on Day1 or 2 with minimal arguments. In both cases I see an evil intent trying to get me lynched and not being honestly trying to lynch a baddie as the first priority.

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.I'm not sure which one of has the faulty logic here... or well, a very differing view of things at least.

By killing the real ranger last Night the wolves would have most probably exposed one of them (the false ranger) whom we would have then lynched toDay - leaving one wolf alone against the entire village.

And yes, I was saying the same: if the wolves thought Pitch was protected they had an open invitation to pick anyone they wished. But I would think they would go for those who could be influental threats to them rather than trying to pick someone who's not been too openly in the spotlight thus far.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Oh you had one more...
Besides, the last few minutes of the previous Day set the tone and made it clear that you at least would come after me, so why kill me off and save the village from one massive distraction?Sorry to disappoint you, but I was not being a clever wolf there. Sadly I was just acting stupidly from a moment's passion. The last minute fever... :confused:

But then again I'm not too sure I would have something like a major issue to go after you toDay... I mean why would I? I should try to look for a wolf here, not look for how to get a certain person lynched wgatever s/he is.

But as I said, I'll be back a little later (I just decided to look at the situation and maybe post some elementary thoughts of our situation and here a full hourr has already gone...).

And with an eye to everyone, not just you Roa. :)

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 11:21 AM

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...
Maybe they are just too sporty, like you often are, and rather would prefer to sportily lynch us :p [/sarcasm]

Anyway, on a serious note. As for Kitanna's death, it seems likely to me that indeed she was just a safe kill which creates no trail, is not going to be protected, maybe even could be assumed to be the target of a Seer dream, given how little was known about her? Anyway, there is still the question "before" this one: that is, okay, but why not one of the Rangers and co.
Well, I guess the reason would be an attempt to create confusion. There is basically no other explanation, obviously. But let me try to construct how it would work if Ranger A or Ranger B is the real one and the other was a Wolf, maybe that will help to cast some light on it (I am doing that for myself, "on the run", not sure if it will produce any valuable results, but let's see).

Case 1: Hakon is a real Ranger, Wilwa is a Wolf
The Wolves know Wilwa is one of them, therefore they also know Hakon is a real Ranger. Hakon, the real Ranger, said he can protect the Seer toNight. Therefore, there is no sense for them to attack the Seer. They could attack the Ranger, but what would that mean? That would mean instant death for Wilwa on the following Day. So not clever, possibly, better to keep the confusion around for a while and let us lynch a few more innocents at least?

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Well, if I were to choose the first scenario seems more plausible to me, somehow. But anyway... I guess what I am looking forward to the most now is to see Pitchwife's dream.

I need to think of things, too, and go through posts of people probably, again. I will be around for quite a while now.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Nog

Loslote

10-17-2009, 11:22 AM

Personally, I still think Hakon is a wolf, but I'm not nearly as certain who the other wolf is. My top guesses are Nogrod and Brinn[B].

[B]Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Nogrod, Roa wasn't the first person to go for you. That was Nienna. Why are you blaming Roa? Also, you're asking why the wolves didn't kill Roa or Legate. Why should they? They're both very vocal players, and soon enough they'll say something that'll make us all lynch them. The wolves would have no reason to kill them, whereas Kitanna was trailless. We can't say why the wolves do anything, of course, but we also can't say why they wouldn't.

Edit: xed with Legate, Inzil, and Nogrod.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 11:36 AM

Just one more speculation at this hour...

Now clearly the fact that the wolves didn't try to kill Pitchie - which we should know for certain as Kit died - would point towards Hakon being actually the real ranger and thus cast the suspicion on wilwa.

Now didn't they have any other choices or was it their intention to make wilwa look bad?

That's actually quite interesting, since the only thing Kitanna's death point to (mind you I haven't finished going through Day 2) is Wilwa. Could that have been a factor in choosing Kitanna.

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Indefinitely? Of course not. But the wolves would be foolish to leave a gifted alive longer than they absolutely have to. The longer they leave the ranger alive, the more careful they have to be in their kills, and if they fail and the ranger comes out and says who they protected, well, that's as good as a seer's dream.

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

I'm certain people already have.

Not exactly. I suspect those people who time their efforts to lynch me when innocent too nicely - or make a too heavy effort on Day1 or 2 with minimal arguments. In both cases I see an evil intent trying to get me lynched and not being honestly trying to lynch a baddie as the first priority.

But if I think you are a baddie, then honestly trying to lynch you is honestly trying to lynch a baddie, isn't it? See, while you may be sure of your role, I have no means of that except your death or a seers dream. I hardly made a heavy effort- I posted analysis, not just of you, but of several people that SPM mentioned. Not because it's you, but because a known wolf talked about you in ambiguous terms. Contrary to your perceptions, I just want to find a wolf, not go after you because it's fun. As for my vote- it was your lack of reaction to my "trying hard to lynch you" (which I wasn't) that made me ultimately change my mind from voting for Inzil to voting for you.

I'm not sure which one of has the faulty logic here... or well, a very differing view of things at least.

By killing the real ranger last Night the wolves would have most probably exposed one of them (the false ranger) whom we would have then lynched toDay - leaving one wolf alone against the entire village.

Which I mentioned- it was point B. Please read before responding.

And yes, I was saying the same: if the wolves thought Pitch was protected they had an open invitation to pick anyone they wished. But I would think they would go for those who could be influental threats to them rather than trying to pick someone who's not been too openly in the spotlight thus far.

By your logic, you shouldn't be alive this morning either. And we are easy to lynch. You don't get rid of someone who's easy to lynch. You get them lynched during the day.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Again, by your logic, you should be a top candidate for the kill as well. You also wouldn't false reveal as a gifted in the manner as was done yesterday. I think it's pretty clear the wolves aren't playing like you.

Oh you had one more...
Sorry to disappoint you, but I was not being a clever wolf there. Sadly I was just acting stupidly from a moment's passion. The last minute fever... :confused:

I didn't think you were. If you were paying attention to my post at all, you would see that I am fairly certain of your innocence. You are letting past games get into your head and not actually thinking clearly. Calm down- I don't want to lynch you.

But then again I'm not too sure I would have something like a major issue to go after you toDay... I mean why would I? I should try to look for a wolf here, not look for how to get a certain person lynched wgatever s/he is.

Because at the end of Day 2, you were sure that I was evil. It's follows that you would continue to think so toDay. And if you are trying to kill wolves, and you think that I'm a wolf, it follows that you would try to kill me.

But as I said, I'll be back a little later (I just decided to look at the situation and maybe post some elementary thoughts of our situation and here a full hourr has already gone...).

And with an eye to everyone, not just you Roa. :)

I hope you return soon, because I'm fairly sure we are on the same side. And I'd like to know your opinion of people other than myself.

Edit: crossed with Legate and Loslote

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 11:37 AM

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.
Definitely agreed. Like you say, the moment had not arrived yet. We still have some time.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...
Well, I don't really know, Noggoth, but I think it was you who were modding the last game only a couple of weeks ago, and innocent Roa was lynched there quite splendidly with a large contribution of mine and other innocents, and you said yourself how you enjoyed watching the mistake happen, so I think you should have it in fresh enough memory not to speak too lightly of Roa's "lynchability"...

Anyway, as for that, maybe I am a lot too more careful after what happened the last time (if Roa is a Wolf this time, I may pity it), but I certainly am against making any artificial cases, and this far I do not have any reasons to suspect her. She seems okay. And I don't see what is your case against her (looks just artificial, as if you decided "Roa cannot be innocent, let's prove it"). Though there is something fishy on the whole business. Anyway, it's not what I want to concern myself with now. My questionmark still hovers above Inziladun, for example. Hm, I could really re-read some older posts people made.

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 11:44 AM

I'm here - and baffled by the fact that the wolves didn't go for any of the gifted last Night. wilwa predicted this might happen, which makes me wonder whether she just guessed the wolves' strategy correctly in her #221 or had inside information on their plans. Anyway, they're playing a risky game here, and I hope we'll be able to turn it against them.
My dreams revealed no wolf last Night, but unlike yesterDay, I'm now able to give you a known innocent. I hesitate to do this, as it will make him a target for the wolves, but looking back at yesterDay's votes, I think some clearing up is in order. Besides, I guess one of the wolves' motives in not attempting to kill me is to tarnish my credibility, and I'd like to spoil that game for them.
Nogrod is a faithful follower of Cthulhu - to be precise, an ordo.
Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.
Roa, sorry for not complying with your request. If it's any consolation, you've been on my shortlist for dreaming from the beginning - but up to now, you haven't done a single thing that cried 'wolf' to me, while Nog was under considerable suspicion yesterDay and I had doubts of him myself. To be frank, with his role now known, I don't quite like your vote for him which may have pushed him to voting Nienna to save himself, but I can see you doing this out of genuine suspicion, and on the other hand, I don't think a wolf would ask for being dreamed like you did.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 11:51 AM

I don't suspect Inzil for the simple reason that he won't stop suspecting me. Most people saw SPAM's vote and said, "Okay then. Cross Lottie off the list." But Inzil thinks I'm a wolf, so he didn't. I think a wolf would let that one go, so since Inzil didn't, I don't think he is guilty.

Roa I can't say. She has been very helpful, and I don't see anything suspicious, but I also don't see anything that proves she can't be a wolf.

Legate makes good points sometimes, but other times he posts fluffy nothings, as I've said before. That doesn't add up to wolf in my book.

Crayon hasn't been the most vocal, but what he says seems to be well-thought out and helpful. I'm not suspicious of him.

I don't have much on Lari. She could easily be a wolf, but she doesn't jump out to me as one.

I'm waiting on Pitchie's dream. No suspicions there.

Edit: xed with Pitchie

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 11:58 AM

Thanks, Pitch. Useful to at least have a known innocent around.
If the wolves are going to play the game of leaving around all the various claimants to confuse us, I think it's time to take sides now, and vote for the Priest claimant we think most suspicious. I know: we don't want to lynch a gifted. But in this case, even if we were that unfortunate we'd be led to a likely wolf. Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.
Wilwa has made an appearance already. I wonder what Hakon has to say toDay.

x'd with Loslote, who is right. She's still not off the hook.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 12:15 PM

Hakon

10-17-2009, 12:17 PM

Let me start off by saying I am the real ranger. So far the person to really strike me as suspicious is Lostole. I think SPM knew no one would vote for her on day one that is why he did it. It makes her seem innocent and it gets her out of being suspected as a wolf. Lostole backs up Wilwa almost 100 percent in this Hakon is a wolf thing.

++Wilwa

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 12:20 PM

Hakon, we still have one wolf out in the crowd. We already know that either you or Wilwa is the wolf. Can you help find the one among the 10 people out here we have no idea about? That would be so much more useful.

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 12:22 PM

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 12:28 PM

Kitanna

Day 1

Post 1- Basic "I'm here"

Post 2- remark about the uselessness of the first posts, says Greenie managed to turn the conversation to something more substantial, legate took a wait and see attitude, remark about the loud/quiet debate, finds Wilwa's suggestion about people making noise unhelpful, is confused by Morsul's choice, like's wilwa's advice about ignore vote counts, thinks Hakon's vote is dodgy, doesn't see a reason for Loslote or Crayon's votes.

Her remarks are very general, and aside from slight suspcion towards Wilwa, doesn't really state anything concrete.

Post 3- Calls shenanigans on Brinn, Thinks that Loslote and Crayon's lack of a reason is suspicious, sees where Nienna's reaction could have been a red flag but doesn't find it suspicious, still worried by Wilwa's suggestion

She continues with suspicion of Wilwa. Why didn't Wilwa comment on this in her analysis?

Post 4- Agrees with legate that Wilwa's vote is suspicious, doesn't find Nienna's reaction suspicious, thinks that Brinn is just playing her style.

She doesn't find Nienna or Brinn suspicious, but still is suspicious of Wilwa

Post 5- response to Roa, "Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further"." Questions Nienna about her suspicions and vote

Post 6- Wonders slightly about Nienna based on vote, Vote Wilwa based on earlier suggestion and her vote for Hakon

So at the end of Day 1 she is strong on her suspicion of Wilwa. I still find it odd that Wilwa didn't mention this or comment on it at all.

Day 2

Post 1- Lists people mentioned by SPM (Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen), says she believes Pitch and isn't as wary as Loslote, will seriously look over the post of SPM and the people he mentioned in seriousness.

She says what basically others said in the beginning of the day.

Post 2- Review of Inzil: doesn't seem good or bad either way, Review of Lari: slightly more suspicious than Inzil, but not by much.

She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that. She seems to have dropped her suspicion of Wilwa altogether on Day 2, but again, we can't know what she would have done had she survived and been around. Did Wilwa ignore this on purpose, or was it an oversight?

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 12:31 PM

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.
Just pointing out: if you're the real Priest and truly protected me last Night, like you said you would, I most likely will be dead toMorrow and unable to tell my dream - unless the wolves go on risking to be dreamed for the sake of creating confusion. I'm curious how long they're willing to keep this up.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 12:31 PM

Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.
Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Stop it both of you. Time is maybe not on our side in general, but the situation really isn't as dire yet. Look at the player list, there is 13 or us or something. Plenty time. Plenty time. Give it a rest at least for a Day or two. Most of all, because if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. Repeat: if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. I hope I do not have to repeat it for more times.

By the way, it is useful to know about Nog. Good, Pitch. (The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.)

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 12:32 PM

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

It only confuses us as long as we keep discussing it. If we focus on catching the wolf in hiding, we won't be confused by the whole thing. Pitch can use her dream however she wants, including finding out the truth behind Hakon and Wilwa, or finding the other hidden wolf. But only if she's alive. Which she won't be if we bumble and kill the ranger. What if, God forbid, the last wolf is a submarine like last game? We may not figure it out until it's too late.

Edit: crossed with Legate

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 12:37 PM

Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.No problem there Pitchie. It was a good idea to reveal your knowledge. As it happens I have some time in my hands toDay and as a known innocent (so far as you will be trusted) I can try to be as open as possible as I don't have to be afraid of my own neck toDay. And that is good.

Also it will be interesting to see what the wolves will decide the next Night...

Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

So Inzil also, let's not be hasty.

Okay. I'll go back into the thread to make some basic-research.

If there is any issue you people would like to hear a good-willed thoughts on let me know. But for the first thing I'm going to scroll through the thread, check the votings (times and reasons) + look a bit on Inzil (eyeing what Hakon and wilwa have said on him & spm as well).

It may take some time knowing my slow speed in doing this kinds of things, but I will refresh this page as well every now and then to see what goes on.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts...

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 12:37 PM

Pitch can use her dream however she wants
For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...;)

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 12:40 PM

For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...;)

:o What's really embarrassing is that I think I did that last game too.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 12:47 PM

The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.Heh... :)

Okay. I try to stay focused, but you know, when one knows his days are counted one wishes to voice every little thing he finds so as to enable others to pick on them if the main suspicions turned out wrong after one is gone himself...

But I will try to prioritise things toDay. I'll try... :rolleyes:

Well Pitchie, picking up a nick with the word "wife" in it might be a minor factor for those confusions to arise... :D

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 01:11 PM

Hmm, I have just read through Inzil's posts and actually now I would reconsider him and think of him better than I initially did. Except for maybe the fact that he quoted SpM and Nogrod together on first Day to sort of point out how flawed they are => throwing an innocent and a Wolf into the same bag for eventual chances to frame in the future? But that, I think, seems highly overstretched. Also, I think it is going to be possible to get a better reading of him once we know who Hakon is. So, maybe I can let him sort of drop from the emergency positions on my suspicion ladder for now... well, let's see.

Relatedly. I said I have a good feeling about Brinn-well, I do, the only thing is that she is really a good Wolf when she is one, so I really cannot effectively tell. And really. I have the same problem with Nerwen. That's basically the same case. While I have been worried about Nerwen slightly... maybe she could be the next one I can look on.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 01:14 PM

Votes for Nienna:

Wilwa- put Nienna in the running
Lari- tied Nienna with Nog
Inzil- Put Nienna into the lead
Nogrod- Put Nienna over the top

Nogrod is a known innocent. So I won't be doing (another) look at him.

Wilwa is tied up in a lovely knot- no point in wasting my time.

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Votes for Nogrod

Nienna- put Nog in the running
Loslote- put Nog in the lead
Roa- tied Nog up with Nienna

Nienna is a known innocent.

I can't analyze myself.

Loslote is probably innocent. I will put him on my list of analysis anyways.

Other votes

Hakon- Wilwa
Morsul- Hakon
Craydon- Morsul
Nerwen- Morsul
Brinn- Inzil
Legate- Inzil

Hakon- see Wilwa

Morsul- see Hakon

Craydon had to vote early and had no good candidates. His vote looks sound. There really isn't much to analyze. I think he bears watching.

Nerwen was around, and could have come up with something better. If she didn't like either Nogrod or Nienna as a suspect, then she could have come up with a third party. Her vote looks careful to me. She's next on my analysis list, especially as I never got around to her yesterDay.

Brinn's vote is interesting. I understand putting up someone else she was uncomfortable with instead of voting for someone she didn't find suspicious. The problem is that other than briefly on Day 1, she hasn't really registered with me. I am afraid of submarines, and she is striking me as a submarine.

Legate's vote has a reason behind it, and I also considered voting for Inzil. Still, I haven't paid terribly close attention to him lately.

No vote

Pitch
Kitanna

Pitch is our seer.
Kitanna is a known innocent

So, from the votes, I will analyze:
Loslote
Nerwen
Brinn
Legate

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

Edit: crossed with Legate

Loslote

10-17-2009, 01:28 PM

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...:rolleyes:

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female. ;)

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 01:30 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 01:32 PM

Hmm, so actually, I have read also through Nerwen's posts, and the outcome is - for now - rather positive still, she seems reasonable, trying to think and all that. But I am really, really, really looking forward for her to post toDay. I guess it will make me form my picture on her a lot closer, among other things, especially I am looking forward to seeing her interpretation of the Night events.

Well, otherwise I am afraid that I am falling into the "Legate who starts analysing never catches anyone" state, which I have been observing on myself many times. I think I could try to read Brinn and Lari for comparison, but Lari makes so long posts. And Brinn is a submarine, but it really seems she is busy in RL, so what can one do. Ugh, and I completely forgot that Craydon exists.

But, hm, thinking of it, if I am not mistaken, then there is only one Wolf, then, outside the Hakon-Wilwa-(Morsul) group. That means it could be basically anyone :rolleyes: (Like, some total submarine. That's how I came to think of it now.)

EDIT: x-ed since Roa's long post

Loslote

10-17-2009, 01:33 PM

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Didn't want to write it out again.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 01:42 PM

Didn't want to write it out again.

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 01:45 PM

Hm, as for having read Lari, I guess it would be good to see her around and posting more to get a better picture about her. This far, she could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now. Let's see what comes up.

Hm, I have the feeling that I had some other thought on my mind, but possibly forgot it.

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 01:47 PM

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

Admittedly, yes. That was just my starting point...and basically the reason why no one looked very closely at her later. She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance. When other players posted analyses of everyone, most of what was said about Brinn was, "hasn't posted much. Let's look at her later, when she's posted more." The only real 'substantial' post of hers that I found was complaining about the reveals and telling the 'gifteds' that they made her head hurt.

Edit: xed with Legate

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 01:50 PM

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 01:51 PM

Here's the voting first with quotes of reasons given. There are no explanations for known innocent votes (to save time).

Morsul -> Nienna
(“firstly she acts far too innocent to be also notice Mccab put quotes around innocent Hmm a slip on our mods part?”)
Hakon -> Inzil
(“He has a track record as being a wolf and he has gotten past my radar every time. I am not taking the risk of letting him live.”)
Loslote -> Pitchie
(“same as Inzil, only his posts worry me more. He seemed to be jokingly trying to get on everyone's good side...but it might just be Day 1 behavior.” What she said of Inzil: “I'm not entirely comfortable with him, but nothing that I can really base a suspicion on.”)
Crayon -> Inzil 2
(no reason whatsoever given for the vote)
wilwa -> Hakon
(“So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them”)
Spm -> Loslote
(“Overall, Loslote’s activity comes across to me as typically Wolfish. Posting a fair bit to show she’s engaged, trying to look helpful, but actually avoiding saying very much of anything at all.”)
- 1.42 Nienna -> Pitchie 2
- 1.28 Nogrod -> Nienna 2
- 1.13 Kit -> wilwa
- 1.12 Roa -> Spm
(“Because he has been throwing around suspicion as if it had the full weight of sound reasoning behind it when it didn't. And also because in all of his actual suspicions (not counting the banter) someone else expressed if not suspicion then unease or wariness in that direction first, which he then played up into a case with no merit.”)
- 1.05 Pitchie -> Spm
- 0.48 Inzil -> Spm 2
(“If this turns out to be a bust, we'll have an obvious target toMorrow.”)
- 0.45 Legate -> Spm 3
(“I don't think there is anything to wonder about, it would really make no sense to make a claim here if it was untrue...”)
- 0.43 Nerwen -> Spm 4
(“Well, then, it's now easy)
- 0.34 Greenie -> Spm 5
- 0.32 Lari -> Spm 6
(“If he is a wolf, that will validate Pitch.”)
- 0.18 Brinn -> Spm 7
(“Okay, I believe you since I see absolutely no reason a baddie would false reveal at this point, but I still think it is rather premature to be revealing even if you have caught a wolf. For one thing, seers have been known to catch two wolves in the past, but revealing now severely limits that opportunity. Though I'm glad at least you waited until the end of the Day so that we'll still have plenty of posts to analyse toMorrow from before we knew Spm's role (and thus be more likely to find connections).”)

A few other remarks on Day1 (looking basically at Inzil - but also Spm, Hakon and wilwa).

EDIT: Blah... I pushed the send button when I was trying to push the preview button... Okay, the rest in a minute...

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 01:52 PM

Loslote- okay, that's better, and I can see your point. (Obviously, as I said it a short bit ago.)

Edit: crossed with Nogrod

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 02:10 PM

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

Okay, well yes, that's why I said I hope to see more from him in the future. I am normally not that worried of people who slip outside the attention (we have other people for that :p ), but this is just the fact that we have most likely only one Wolf outside the spotlights (eventually, we will lynch the other, in one way or the other), so it's that basically apart from the known innocent Nogrod, oneself, the Seer, the two Rangers, and Morsul(likely Agent), you have some seven people to choose from, and six of them are innocent. Uh, really? So little? Well yes, could be... so wait... Inzil, Roa, Brinn, Nerwen, Lari, Crayon... is that all? So one Wolf is (most likely) in there? Hm, nice.

EDIT: Ha! Whom did I miss? Now that would be the most convinient way of spotting a Wolf I have ever seen! :D (Read above what I said ;) )
EDITEDIT: Oh, okay. I missed Loslote. Hm, well, I really think her innocent.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 02:10 PM

First of all must be said that with wilwa and Hakon we have just soo different players in front of us. The one being very much streetwise, making good general points and being active; the other being short and straightforward bordering on letting an impression he's not totally at home with this...

No way am I gonna make it obvious that I'm a wolf just to make you're life easier.....oops.I don't like these jokes. They always smell at least like a small rat.

Then there is this nice pick: a wolf addressing his fellow…

My vote will most likely be whoever comes off as most suspicious in my opinion.
And there was me thinking that you would vote for whoever looks least suspicious to you ...

Actually, I think wilwa has it about right. Barring any major slip-ups from the Wolves, Day 1 votes are pretty much random, whatever reasons people might come up with. Except the Wolves' votes, of course. And that is one of the main reasons why what happens on Day 1 can be so useful on Day 2.

And I just don't know what to say of this...
Also on a side note, I think SPM is a wolf. There is no way he is an ordinary innocent. I mean he is back now after being gone for years, it makes perfect sense to give him some kind of non ordinary innocent role so he can show off his apparently awesome skills at werewolf.

But as Legate already noted, I also started feeling a bit better of Inzil after reading him. But check the following posts yourselves...

First there is this quite cool reaction to an early vote by Hakon
I'd prefer to earn a lynching with my actions in this circumstance, but there you go.

Although if they were mates this would be understandable reaction to a fellow-wolf's vote... Hakon's vote, as so many have noted, was illogical, but it is somewhat in character for him to vote based on hunches and such. I don't think I'll go for him toDay.That one was actually a crosspost with Pitchie's revealment...

But would a wolf say this after a revealment he knows is true and seeing the votes rolling in for his mate?
I guess it's possible Pitch could be the Agent, but trusting him for now seems to be the logical thing to do. At least we'll have somthing concrete to go on toMorrow, one way or the other.Wouldn't it be easier to just go with the flow as basically everyone did?

How about wilwa who before Pitchie’s revelation said this as an answer to Hakon suspecting Spm for meta-game reasons (quoted above).And keep in mind, if you insist to use that sort of logic for SPM, that wolf is not the only non-ordinary innocent role. And most roles are chosen randomly any who, so it's not that unlikely that he's innocent.

Okay. I'll check Day2 before making any deductions myself...

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 02:19 PM

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 02:23 PM

Loslote

Day 1

Post 1- "I'm here"

Post 2- DL isn't very good for her

Post 3- Tells Morsul that the narration doesn't hold any clues

Post 4- Reminds Morsul to be invisible

Post 5- Response to Craydon's idea

Post 6- Response to Inzil about Craydon's idea

First six posts and nothing of consequence. Not necessarily evil. It is only her second game.

Post 7- List!
Suspicious: SPM and Pitch
Everyone else: No read?

It's hard to tell what she's getting at. She says things like, "posted-nice sounding nothings," but didn't elaborate. She either finds everyone slightly suspicous in someway (unless they haven't been on) or no one suspicious at all except SPM and Pitch

Post 8- Votes Pitch

An early vote, which is always at a disadvantage. She did give a reason, even if it was poor, but a lot of people were doing that at the time. Day 1 had nothing suspicous except for the 7th post, and that was understandable, given the Day and the lack of evidence.

Day 2

Post 1- Statement on reveals: Agent- Morsul, Priest- Wilwa, Pitch- Dreamer
gives reasons for each

Sound ideas, but mostly what had already been said, reasoning and all.

Post 2- Corrects the odds of finding a wolf. Agrees that we should leave the "gifteds" alone for now, says we'll only know for sure if Pitch dies tonight

She confuses the roles a bit, but since they have different names it;s not surprising. I can understand her point.

Post 3- Apologizes for mixing up the roles.

Post 4- decides to look at Legate's posts "at random", decides Legate is an ordo.

I found this post confusing, because her response to alot of Legate's posts make it sound like she thinks Legate is suspicious, but at the end she just drops it. It seems very non-sequitor.

Post 5- Votes Nogrod because of post #238, doesn't feel very secure about his vote.

The vote for Nogrod came out of nowhere, but it seems she felt rushed and confused, which is understandable given the events of the Day. Aside from from looks like non-sequitor reasoning, there really isn't anything suspicious.

Day 3

Post 1- Thinks Hakon is a wolf. Suspects Brinn- first post was very similar to SPM, and has generally been ignored- and Nogrod- for his suspicion on Roa?

I don't follow her reasoning on Nogrod, but I can see how Brinn would make her uneasy.

Post 2- Doesn't suspect Inzil, Roa- can't say, Legate- fluffy but not furry, Crayon- unsuspicious, Lari- nothing, Waiting for Pitch

At least she's very clear about her opinions.

Post 4- still worried by Brinn, thinks she is the other wolf

Post 5- reclarifies for Roa the suspicions about Brinn

Post 6- further clarification, per Roa's request

Honestly, I see nothing suspicious about Loslote. Her reasons remain structurally sound, even if they seem non-sequitor to me. But then, not everyone uses the same reasoning I do.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 02:25 PM

I am just posting this to help myself and others focus a bit. It's less overwhelming that way. If we ignore Hakon and Wilwa, and we each take our own role into account, that leaves 7 people for each of us to look at in order to find the last wolf.

Knowns:
Pitchwife- seer
Nogrod- Innocent
Morsul- Agent

50/50:
Hakon- wolf/priest
wilwa- wolf/priest

One of these is the last wolf:
Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Craydon1
Nerwen
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 02:28 PM

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

Yep, as you see, I have already corrected that.

EDIT: Although thinking of it, it's not THAT definite. Not so definite that I'd completely leave her out... hmm... maybe I could go re-read her posts too.

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 02:29 PM

She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance.
I've just been looking through Brinn's posts, and I find this rather exaggerated. OK, she didn't post much on Day 1, but in every post but her first she gave some opinions on other players and arguments for them (re: Hakon's suspicion of SpM, Nienna's overreaction to Morsul's vote, not lynching Hakon early, timing of my reveal and its consequences for voting analysis). Day 2 she posted more, she didn't only 'complain' about the reveals but discussed the situation, was wary of Zil (whom she voted in the end), even made a list giving her impressions of assorted players (not very conclusive, I admit). Not as much contribution as our louder players, but not what I'd call a submarine (unlike Cray, but see what Roa said of him).

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 02:32 PM

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

I actually meant both an analysis of me and checking my analysis of other people. Since I know you won't be trying to disprove my points for nefarious reasons, you can check my work and tell me if I'm being overly paranoid or (less likely) overly nice.

Edit: crossed. Sorry Legate, I didn't see your Edit

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 02:36 PM

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 02:38 PM

I have a prior engagement to get to. I'll be back on in a few hours to do an analysis of Nerwen.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 02:38 PM

Brinn:

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

Post 3: Doesn't suspect Nienna for disliking Morsul's vote; Doesn't want to lynch Hakon and suspects Wilwa for wanting to; suspects me.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

Post 5: Still doesn't think Pitchie's reveal was wise.

Post 6: Is annoyed by reveals; wonders whether Morsul is the agent, a wolf, or a confused ordo; wants to believe wilwa; her head hurts.

Post 7: wants to look more at other players.

Post 8: Doesn't find Nienna suspicious; wonders what Morsul is/was trying to do.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Post 11: Still doesn't suspect Nienna; doesn't like the bandwagon against her; doesn't want to vote Nogrod, either.

Post 12: Doesn't want to vote Ni or Nog; votes Inzil for being 'creepy'.

I wanted to look closer because my memory isn't perfect, and I didn't want a suspicion based purely on gut feelings. After looking through her posts, though, I still think she's suspicious.

EDIT: xed with two Roas

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 02:42 PM

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf.That's not too far fetched a scenario... looking at the numbers; if the real loudmouths would be killed one by one the last remaining one would feel quite lonely and might reach a premature lynching for it. Or maybe they are acting just for sportiness (as I would)?

But it's also possible the wolves wish the loudmouths to tear each other apart - as has happened quite a many times...

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-17-2009, 02:53 PM

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself?

In a way, that would be quite good at least from the point of view that it won't be any submarine who would escape us. Though, what exactly do you call "loud". Okay, by this logic, next person killed should be Brinn or something like that.

Anyway, I think the Wolves this far, in either case, had probably good reasons to kill the quiet players, especially last Night, simply to keep the village in the dark as much as possible. Of course, the choice they made could also have been totally random.

Personally, this tactic goes well together to me with the image that one of the Wolves is Hakon or wilwa (maybe wilwa a bit more than Hakon in this case): they both are the kind of people whom I could imagine killing tracelessly. The remaining Wolf then could be people like Brinn, Nerwen, even maybe Lari... I don't think it fits for example Roa. By the way, one reason why I do not suspect Roa that much is also that I would expect her to kill Nog at Night or something. Although thinking of that, I do not really recall what kind of people she tends to kill as a Wolf, but at least this would sound logical to me.

EDIT: x-ed with the beginning of the page

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 02:54 PM

Here's what Brinn actually said about Zil (#233):
A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time
Lottie's very much abbreviated rendering makes it sound like Brinn was contradicting herself here ("but then..."). But as far as I can see, this is a solid argument about Zil's reaction to my reveal, and I think it was one reason for her to vote him - not merely because she found him 'creepy'.
(I'm not saying what I think of Zil here, just commenting on Lottie's representation of Brinn.)
Anyway, it would be good to hear Brinn herself. Or Lari and Nerwen, for that matter.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 03:22 PM

I'll just send this first... I have some other quotes clipped and will produce them as I first make some comments on them...

Hakon -> Wilwa
(“Wilwa is faking.”)
Morsul -> Hakon
(“Hakon seems the worst off in the bunch”)
Crayon -> Morsul
(“1) if I'm the only one that votes for him, than at least I did not contribute to the possible death of the real Priest, 2) if more do vote for him, than he dies and frankly, no one will mourn, and 3) I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.”)
Nienna -> Nogrod
- 1.00 wilwa -> Nienna
(“Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.”)
- 0.59 Loslote -> Nogrod 2
(“because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points... Argh. This vote is barely better than my last one...”)
- 0.33 Lari -> Nienna 2
(“Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?”)
- 0.16 Inzil -> Nienna 3
(“Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.”)
- 0.12 Roa -> Nogrod 3
(“Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.”)
- 0.06 Nogrod -> Nienna 4
- 0.05 Nerwen -> Morsul
(“I'm not sure enough about either Nienna or Nogrod to vote them.”)
- 0.01 Brinn -> Inzil
(“I would rather have no part in the Nienna and Nogrod bandwagon. Nienna hasn't even been here to defend herself and I already said I'm uncomfortable voting Nog. Right now I still find Inzil creepy”)
- 0.01 Legate -> Inzil 2
(“I get bad feeling from Inzil, really, from a few things I spotted. So I will probably vote him. Especially his indefinite judgements like "I don't like this" and things like what he said about me, "Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess." This is a sort of typical Wolfish indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk.”)

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 04:06 PM

I'll send you some quotes this time as well, even it will be a long one... :rolleyes:

Okay, Hakon looks quite innocent in the following quotes...
I am protecting Pitch tonight as I have already stated and Wilwa is not protecting anyone since she will be coming after me with her pack mates.
and after Loslote suspected him…
I am not new to WW. I am on the newer side. This is my sixth or seventh game. I did not guard Pitchwife since I knew the wolves would expect that. They expected me to guard him so I avoided doing so and thus I can now guard him when they will go for him. I made that clear, did I not?

What did wilwa say yesterDay then?

Both Pitch and Morsul are making me uneasy. I really don't know which is really being truthful. I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable? I don't know it's tough.....

Oh my Hakon. So I was right to vote you yesterDay. You're really going to make me do this aren't you??

I posted that then got off the computer to study for a bit, and I realised afterwards I should have never said who I protected, so I came back on. Besides, I'm not even positive Pitch is the dreamer, it could be Morsul. But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today. I could always protect myself toNight and then get another protection (that only I know about) the following Night, or something. Like I said, I've never played this role before, so I'm not used to it.

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

So I'm sure I'll still be here tomorrow, I can't see the wolves killing me and leaving HakonWolf out in the open like that. I really hope Pitch that you don't waste your dream on one of us, like I explained before.Well first she says she believes Morsul more than Pitch but after being commented on playing to the wolves' hands and revealing she had protected Pitch the last Night by Roa she explains that she had realised her mistake in revealing her protection... and says she's "not even positive" Pitch is the real seer as it could be Morsul as well... hmm...

Interesting what she says about protecting herself btw. That's not a normal procedure and there seems to be no mention of it in the rules...

Then there are these "I'm sure I'm alive toMorrow" -things. The logic seems more or less correct but the way she kind of prepares for her being alive toDay looks fishy indeed. Although it is perfectly possible the wolves counted on that in part when making their decision last Night.

I don't know. wilwa is clearly on spot in this game and makes good points but also manages to make herself look pretty suspicious at times. Hakon is much more straightforwards and looks basically missing some of the subtleties but feels quite innocent.

That call for Pitch not to dream either of them in the end looks like a logical thing to say but somehow it feels a bit awkward... a bit premature or something.

With Inzil it’s kind of walking the rope again on Day2… Just check fex. how the following could be read:

I'd say Pitch is in the good books for sure. I'm anxious to see what his dream may have revealed. I'm afraid his time is likely short, but he should at least be able to give us a known innocent.

Defending himself from Kit who said he had not found anyone suspicious but Loslote & Nienna.
Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

To Hakon’s revealment and boasting of being right on Spm.
I'll say nothing about your reveal in itself, save for the fact that you certainly should only have done this if you were in serious danger of being lynched. And yes, indeed you were right about SPM. I still don't endorse the thought process that led you to your conclusion though.

And the controversial one in full…
Here's why I have a tough time with this, Morsul.

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

I think of the two Priest claimants, Hakon would be the more likely fraud, since there was *no* legitimate reason for him to have revealed.

And finally an answer to wilwa.
I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

As on Day1 I would say Inzil looks a bit more innocent than guilty... but it's a thin line.

Okay, done with that. *phew*

Now some concentrated comments from the material I have been collecting and for some other things as well before going to bed.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 04:41 PM

Crayon:

Post 1: warns that he might not be on at DL; informs that Roa might not make it on at all; suggests asking a random question to everyone to see how they respond.

Post 2: votes Inzil, no reason; accepts Crayon nickname.

Post 3: Is suspicious of wilwa and Hakon.

Post 4: votes Morsul because he doesn't think anyone else will vote for him, doesn't think it will matter too much if they do, and suspects that he may be a wolf.

Crayon hasn't posted much at all. This is his first game here, though, and according to Roa, he's been busy in RL. I'm not too suspicious of him right now. What little he's posted has been fairly well reasoned (excepting Post 2) and helpful.

Nogrod

10-17-2009, 05:25 PM

Looking at the votes of those we'd need to choose toDay then…

Inziladun
D1
Votes Spm as first after the revealment. Neutral flag or even a positive one as a wolf might have wished to see whether the claim was believed in the first instance and restrained his vote for a moment (even if he had ended up with the same vote).
D2
Puts Nienna in front of me by one vote when it looked like it was a run between us two (innocents), had suspected her already.

So?: neutral on a bit more innocentish than guilty looking. Goes well with my thoughts of him after looking more closely at his posts today.

Loslote
D1 Voted early for Pitchie, for no real reasons (but it was early to be frank).
D2 Voted me an hour before the deadline with “a rushed vote” – as noted by some others totally misreading my post.

So?: Hard to say. Both votes are a bit unqualified ones if I may say so... But is it just inexperience and hurry or something more sinister? Hard to say indeed. Other factors but voting should be considered with her.

Roa
D1 Voted Spm before Pitchie’s reveal… kudos for her!
D2 Voted me twelve minutes before the DL putting me level with Nienna. What troubled me with that vote was that it came a bit out of the clear blue sky… she had made an analysis of me much earlier and said I was somewhat suspicious, but after that she had been silent about it. It still bugs me a bit to be honest… too good a timing.

So?: The D1 vote sure looks good - unless it was risky wolvery that was backed by a shot of incredible luck of getting into the book of innocents (or bad luck as Spm got lynched in the end). I didn't understandably like her vote on D2. So vote-wise I'd say good with reservations that need to be backed up from somewhere else than just voting (I'll try to look at her tomorrow eg. later in the Day).

Craydon1
D1 Votes Inzil with no reason given (apologizes for it on Day2 though).
D2 Makes a decent case why he votes for Morsul the agent even if those reasons have not been appreciated by the majority of the village. Says also interestingly: “I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.” Whatever that means…

So?: No idea. If a submarine wolf then a most dangerous one as none would like to lynch a newbie-guy getting ready to go to war... Still I wouldn't suggest lynching him among the first ones we've have to choose.

Nerwen
D1 Goes with the bandwagon for Spm…saying “Well, then, it's now easy”.
D2 Takes an eyebrow-raising third-way giving Morsul the second vote five minutes before the DL. Claims she doesn’t wish to take sides in the choice between me and Nienna.

So?: D1 vote doesn't tell anything. Morsul had one vote already on D2 and she had suggested that choice earlier, so it looks a bit more innocentish. Unlike Brinn and Legate she could have entertained a real possibility of getting someone else than me or Nienna lynched - if that was her thought at the time; not wishing to see either of us lynched? But then again, if she knew we both were innocents wouldn't that be what a tricky wolf would do?

Legate
D1 Votes Spm as second after the revealment.
D2 Gives Inzil a second vote one minute before the DL for “indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk”.

So?: With the Spm-vote the same thing applies as with Inzil above. But his vote for Inzil on D2 looks quite suspicious indeed. Like washing his hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.

Lariren Shadow
D1 Gives Spm his second last vote.
D2 Gives Nienna her second vote half an hour before the DL. Thinks her illogical + the first Day over-defensiveness.

So?: One more of these "hard to says". Waiting so long to vote for Spm might point to wolvery (wishing to see any miracles) but also to time-issues. D2 vote is just neutral.

Brinn
D1 Gives the last vote to Spm.
D2 Her vote for Inzil at one minute before the DL – opening a totally new path – while claiming she wouldn’t like to take part in a choice between me and Nienna looks pretty bad to me indeed. Not want to “take part”?

So?: What I said of Lari concerning D1, but her vote for Inzil looks pretty suspicious indeed. Like washing her hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.

Counting only voting Brinn and Legate look the worse to me - mainly based on their votes on Day2. But they can't both be wolves which kind of dulls the edge...

It's easy to see why someone would look suspicious, but which are the right reasons to catch the actual baddie? Sorry Legate I seem to have forgotten the suggestion you made on the "known innocent syndrome"...

Anyway. I'm off to bed pretty soon as it's a bit too late anyway. But I'll be back at the latter part of the Day trying to make some more precise looks around.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 05:42 PM

On a more serious note, I am expecting everyone to play their full part toDay (and, indeed, every Day). When it comes to voting, we won’t have a lot to go on. But we’ll have even less if people don’t speak up, play their part, make their opinions known.

Interesting SPM to say that toDay we should all play our parts. At the moment I'm going to assume you mean as a village to try to get the wolves, which we all want to do.

This turned into a big conflict, with Lari claiming it meant SPAM was the Agent or, *gasp*, a wolf. If Lari was a wolf, like SPAM, would they make such a big deal out of that little quote? Or were they just bickering to make it seem like they weren't at all connected?

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 05:44 PM

Some thoughts that just struck me reading Nog-Rodoth's list of quotes:
I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable?
Would it really have been more believable? Imagine:
Seer 1: I'm the Seer.
Seer 2: Me too.
Seer 1: I've dreamt SpM, he's a wolf.
Seer 2: Me too.
Now that would have screamed fake, wouldn't it? I actually think Morsul was clever in claiming he'd dreamt something different, although it was a risky move (what if he'd revealed one of our gifted as ordo, or vice versa?). So if that was an attempt by a wilwolf to make her fake-revealing Agent look better, it fails for weak reasoning.
And Zil - most of what he's said up to now looks reasonable and logical to me (which probably means he's a wolf, but never mind, we can't second-guess ourselves all the time). His initial response to my reveal (i.e. mentioning I might be the Agent etc.) looks possibly wolvish on first sight (tarnishing the Seer's credibility), but I can't honestly fault him for it - I've done it myself as an innocent (when our Mod was the Seer and I the Ranger, for those who weren't there) and think wariness about an early Seer reveal is OK; but most of all, if he was a wolf he'd have known this approach would collapse as soon as SpM was lynched.
And finally there's this:
Loslote
++ Nogrod because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points...
I don't see that Nog was saying either of those things, really. Seems a bit of a reach.
He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

Loslote

10-17-2009, 05:49 PM

He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

As I said, the vote was totally rushed. I was almost literally out the door at the time. My reading through of Nogrod's post at best gleaned surface impressions only. When I read through the post later, after DL, I was able to look closer, and yes, my first impression was wrong. I apologize again for being in such a hurry I couldn't properly analyze my suspect.

Pitchwife

10-17-2009, 06:05 PM

Loslote

10-17-2009, 06:08 PM

Fair enough - I know perfectly well RL can mess up our WW perfomance at times. I'm also keeping in mind that SpM's vote on Day 1 speaks in your favour (with a slight question-mark). But you won't mind me going on watching you, will you?

Of course not! That's the point of the game, isn't it? If no one suspected you and took your word for granted, it wouldn't be much fun. ;)

Loslote

10-17-2009, 06:32 PM

Deadline is, again, quite awful for me. I'll either be able to get on just before deadline to vote but won't really have time to look through the posts, or I won't get on at all after half an hour from now. So I'm going to

++ Brinn

now, so that I won't miss my chance altogether...bah.

Lariren Shadow

10-17-2009, 07:02 PM

Sorry I haven't been around, I'm working on a major project about, ironically enough, the werewolf in Marie de France.

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

Or is the whole scenario flawed in some basic way? I need to do some work but will return to these questions - and others in an hour or two.

It seems like the wolves feel comfortable at the moment. That maybe they thought that going after one of those who revealed was just a bad idea in general. Either you get blocked by Hakon's protection, or blocked by Wilwa's protection.

The question is then why didn't they go after Hakon? Wilwa said she would be protecting herself, and I'm not sure if that is even in the rules, but then why not kill him? Is it because he is a wolf or is he the Agent and they think that is a ploy for them? What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

Or this could be all farfetched.

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

Maybe they wanted to keep us questioning for a Day longer?

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 07:30 PM

Alright, I'm back. I'm going to do my analysis of Nerwen. As far as what's been said: I don't think Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting people. Other than her, no one has been paying attention to Brinn. She is, for better or worse, slipping under the radar. So even if she's been making straight on statements, they have not been the kind that grab attention. The fact that this is the first we've considered it is proof enough. I'll have a better idea once I do my own analysis of her, which will come after the analysis of Nerwen.

Hakon

10-17-2009, 08:14 PM

Morsul is a wolf. I have just spent about an hour thinking of plans I would hatch if I were a wolf in this game. It occurred to me that the ideal thing to do is let the newbie wolf reveal as a false gifted and then make a slip up on purpose in order to be brushed off as the cobbler/agent and that Wilwa might be the real agent.

I know you all do not like these methods I am about to use but I find them very useful.

First let us take a look at the known wolf. SPM was an experienced player playing for the first time in a while. He was made a wolf. Wilwa might be a wolf, also an experienced player and playing for the first time in a while. Morsul might be a wolf and he is a newbie, this is his first time playing. Anyone noticed the pattern emerging? If we follow that pattern then Lostole or Crayon person is the final wolf. This is Lostole's second game and Crayon guys first. All of these people here are playing for the first time in a while or are new. I doubt both Morsul and Lostole or Morsul and Crayon man are wolves. I would say we can cross Crayon boy off the list.

Let us recap briefly, SPM was a wolf. Either Wilwa or Morsul is a wolf or the agent. I think Lostole is the final wolf. More likely Wilwa is a wolf then the agent since she is experienced and can properly guide Lostole through the game.

To sum things up the agent is Morsul and the remaining wolves are Lostole and Wilwa.

Lariren Shadow

10-17-2009, 08:19 PM

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 08:19 PM

Roles are decided at random, Hakon. A player's style or status has nothing to do with it. We explained this the first Day. We have almost three Days worth of material to look at in order to find a wolf. Look at that if you want to bring forth legitimate reasoning.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 08:20 PM

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

I didn't even see that. Good catch, Lari.

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 08:37 PM

Looking at Loslote (not comprehensive, just things I found notable)

Day 1:

# 9- Said she would probably be dead by Day 3

# 40- Jumped on Craydon's idea about answering a random question, complied.

# 57- Defended Craydon's idea, saying wolves would 'try to distract' when answering the question.

I didn't, and still don't see how doing what Craydon suggested was any help at all.

# 58- Laid out SPM and Pitch as top suspects, but said would likely vote the latter because he was 'joking, trying to get on everyone's good side'.
And she did vote for Pitch.

Day 2:

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 08:57 PM

I think you lost half your post there, Inzil.

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 09:00 PM

I think you lost half your post there, Inzil.

Yes I did. I'm not sure what happened.

Loslote Day 2:

# 183- Said Morsul was probably the Agent, Wilwa the Priest, and Pitch the Dreamer. Said Wilwa's reveal made more sense. I'd have to agree.

#202- Did analysis of Legate and concluded he was probably an ordo.

#240- Voted Nog for trying to get the revealed gifteds lynched, and casting suspicion on Roa, neither of which appeared to be the case. She later explained it by saying she had been in a hurry and hadn't had time to fully read Nog's post. That I can understand, because I was in a tremendous hurry myself coming up to DL.

And today she's tried to make a case on Brinn, listing Brinn's posts. She concludes by saying she finds Brinn suspicious, but doesn't really say why. Later votes Brinn.

Hm. SPM's vote for her has been used as reasoning for her being innocent,
but I don't think wolf-on-wolf would be out of the question. As has been pointed out, the vote for her would have seemed safe enough, and unlikely to lead to her lynching, and would set her in a fairly positive light.

I'm on the fence about her at this point.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 09:11 PM

Nerwen

Day 1

Post 1- Banter with Greenie, says the wolves will want to appear helpful with out giving themselves away

Post 2- Points out that no one can really prove their alibis

Post 3- Points out that Wilwa's post #21 is little more than telling people to post more, explains to Morsul that the narrations don't have any clues

Post 4- Tells Morsul that the vote isn't meant to be random

Post 5- Doesn't like Hakon's vote

Post 6- response to Morsul: says she had no theories on wolves because it was too early to tell, doesn't think the wolves would have trouble with Crayon's question

Post 7- Response to SPM: Loslote's only played one game, and why does he suspect her

SPM did state that he suspected Nerwen, but he never gave a reason why. Was he tossing suspicion around, jumping onto Morsul's expressed suspicion, or distancing a fellow wolf?

Post 8- doesn't find Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote suspicious, says that Nienna's comment on Hakon was similar to something she did as a wolf in the last game

Post 9- Votes SPM

I would like to know who she was going to vote pre-reveal, but it looks like it would have been Nienna from the way her posts were going, as she's the only one Nerwen had expressed suspicion towards.

Post 10- Response to Inzil: says it's unlikely that Pitch is the Agent

Post 11- Accepts Pitch's reason for revealing so early. Suggests that the Changed and the dreamer might appreciate suggestions

Post 12- "Well, it's not as though he left that many posts for them to go through."

I assume she means SPM.

The impression that Day 1 gave me is someone who is playing carefully. Now, innocents play carefully too, even if I don't agree with that style. But wolves are more likely to do so.

Day 2

Post 1- reaction to mass reveals

She took the words right out of my mouth

Post 2- Tells Morsul that we just aren't going to listen to him, response to Crayon, doesn't think both priests are wolves, response to Nienna: tells her that Morsul definitely tried to reveal as gifted, asks her how there could be a scenario of two competing sets of gifteds with out there being a wolf in the mix.

Other than slightly misunderstanding Crayon's post, there's nothing. Except that this is where the suspicion of Nienna started.

Post 3- Response to Nienna: says Morsul only claimed it was a joke after Roa caught him slipping

Did Morsul ever claim it was a joke? I don't think so. Still, that's not so bad. She defends our seer. On the other hand, well, it was pretty obvious that Morsul was lying, so not defending Pitch would have been suspicious.

Post 4- Points Brinn towards suspecting Nienna

She seems pretty solid about this case against Nienna

Post 5- Explains to Morsul that he can't change sides.

Post 6- Says she won't vote our priests yet, Agrees with Inzil that Nog could definitely be a wolf, agrees with Crayon that Morsul could be a wolf pretending to be an agent, but that it isn't likely.

Post 7- Continues on the idea that Morsul must be the agent, continues to explain that she's suspicious of Nienna

Post 8- says that Morsul was probably trying to get Pitch lynched, doesn't think that we have more than one wolf in the mix, can't tell who

Post 9- Agrees with Legate that Inzil looks suspicious

Post 10- Response to Nienna: doesn't see why she should be open minded about Morsul, questions Nienna's vote for Nogrod

Post 11- Disagrees with Wilwa about the kill saying anything. Says the seer should dream of Wilwa or Hakon

I don't like the way she suggests the seer use his dream like that.

Post 12- Says the wolves won't try to continue the gamble, doesn't think that the wolves are new, wonders why the reveal

But Wilwa was right- we couldn't tell anything from the kill. Which I'm not sure makes Wilwa more suspicious or less.

Post 13- Is suspicious of Wilwa based on her reasoning behind not getting dreamed.

Post 14- Is now second guessing herself on Nienna

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

Post 15- suggests that we lynch Morsul

What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

Post 16- Votes Morsul

So she decides she's going to go against what everyone else has said and votes Morsul. Contrary to Nogrod, I don't think that was seriously putting Morsul up as a candidate since it was clear by then that no one else would have voted for him. Not only that but she also said that both Nogrod and Inzil were suspicious. So why not vote for one of them? Why throw her vote away?

Post 17- Says that Nogrod accusing Roa of being a wolf makes him look evil.

Ironically, that's what convinced me of his innocence.

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched. She also said that the points against Nogrod were good, but she also avoided voting for him. She continues with her carefulness.

Day 3

No show yet

Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1. That's a long time to suspect someone only to suddenly change your mind just as they are about to be lynched.

edit: crossed with Inzil

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 09:21 PM

I am going to do an analysis of Brinn, and then I will probably go to bed. I will be on briefly a few hour before DL, and but I have church in the morning so I won't be on for long.

Of course I'll be thinking of the game all through the service. :rolleyes:

Inziladun

10-17-2009, 09:30 PM

Interesting analysis of Nerwen, Roa. I'd like to hear what she has to say.

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it.

Hakon

10-17-2009, 10:02 PM

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

Yes I know. The first line was the original thought that led to the last line which was the final thought.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 10:12 PM

Brinniel

Day 1

Post 1- Nothing but fluff

Post 2- Explains to Hakon that one's status as a player has nothing to do with the role one is assigned, doesn't like that Crayon and Loslote don't really give reasons for their votes

Post 3- Doesn't think Nienna is suspicious, is wary of people who want to lynch Hakon early in the game (namely Wilwa), gives Crayon the newbie pass, thinks some good points have been brought up against Loslote

This post comes about 15 minutes after Picth's reveal and has no cross-post marker. The points against Loslote are primarily from SPM at this point, who has just revealed to be a wolf by the seer.

Post 4- Believes Pitch, votes SPM

This post is 20 minutes after her last one. Why the long wait? Hoping for a miracle?

Post 5- Understands why Pitch revealed but thinks it was premature.

The only suspicious thing is how long she took to react to Pitch, but that could easily be explained by RL reasons.

Day 2

Post 1- Suggests that Morsul may be the wolf and that we should lynch him at some point just to be safe, but also says that he may be a very confused ordo. Thinks Wilwa is more likely to be the Ranger than Hakon

Well, she's either over thinking or trying to stir up confusion, and I can't say which. It's very easy for anyone to get caught in the trap of over-thinking. Nienna did the same and got lynched for it, so I'm hesitant to make a judgement.

Post 2- Agrees that we should focus away from the mess of gifteds

Post 3- Response to Nerwen: doesn't think Nienna is suspicious for her comment

Post 4- Basic thoughts on the Day: Legate- more innocent than not, Roa- makes sense but is still Roa, ergo untrustworthy, Loslote- inclined to exonerate her based on SPM's vote, Inzil- bad vibes, Kitanna- wants to keep an eye on her

She is, I believe, the only person to mention Kitanna in a somewhat negative light.

Post 5- Says we probably won't know the ranger by the kill, feels uneasy about Wilwa, Says Legate has a good point about Inzil, finds Inzil creepy

Legate misquoted Inzil, who was not, in fact, trying to make it seem as though Pitch was lying but instead explaining was he wouldn't be. So Brinn's suspicion on this is flawed. But she's basing it off what someone else said, so she's either being taken in or she's continuing on purpose, and I have no way to tell.

Post 6- Has a bad feeling about the Nienna bandwagon, doesn't want to vote Nogrod because she hasn't really looked at him

Post 7- Goes with her gut and votes Inzil

I don't see a problem with this. She didn't think either candidate was wolfish, so she did what most of us do and voted for the person she found more suspicious. Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.

Day 3

No show yet

Her suspicions on Day 1 are unclear, but then, so are a lot of people's. Her suspicions on Day 2 amount to "creepy Inzil." One could argue that there is plenty to go on and form an opinion with than a gut feeling, but that is the only suspicious thing about her. If we continue on and I still don't get a clear vibe from her, I may reconsider her because she could very easily be slipping through the cracks. Especially if she's still alive when our known innocents and gifted are gone, since the wolves seem to be favoring the quiet kills.

Roa_Aoife

10-17-2009, 10:24 PM

Final thought before I head off to bed:

ToMorrow's kill should tell us a great deal- if they have the ability to kill the seer (because Hakon is the Ranger) I think they will, because even if it all goes bad toDay (we lynch an innocent) that will leave us with 11 players, two of whom we know the identity of, two of whom we know to have a 50/50 chance of being a wolf. Leaving 7 people standing a chance of being a wolf. If Pitch is alive and has dreamed of an innocent, that will leave 6, which means for each of the innocents only 5 people to look at. That would be considerably small numbers.

There is also the possibility the seer will dream of the last wolf, and with one already out in the open, that is something they can't afford. So if they don't kill Pitch tonight, and kill Nogrod instead, it will be because they can't, which would make Wilwa the Ranger.

Of course no matter what they do, that's still leaves 3 known people at least: If they don't kill Pitch, then it would be Pitch, Morsul, and whoever Pitch dreams of. If Pitch is dead, then it's Nogrod, Morsul, and Hakon. However, in the first scenario, we would still be certain of one of the wolves and known the other was hiding in a much lower number.

Nogrod, Pitch, what do you think?

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 01:37 AM

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Neither we, nor the wolves, can know whether the Ranger is bluffing or not. Whichever way round it is, I'm surprised the wolves didn't try for the Seer, since their Ranger-candidate can always say either, "Hey, I was bluffing" or else, "I guess they thought I was bluffing," depending on circumstances.

Yes, that practically amounts to giving advice to the wolves... but then they should have thought of that themselves. I wonder what it means that they didn't take that option.

Now Roa has brought up some points against me, which I will answer.

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

suggests that we lynch Morsul
What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

Brinniel

10-18-2009, 02:04 AM

I really shouldn't be posting now as I've been awake since 6am and could use some sleep. But I'm fed up enough by Loslote's twisted analysis of me, I feel I should say something now.

First off, I'm rather irritated in hearing her say I haven't contributed much of anything. No, I haven't been as loud as some players, but I've most certainly done more than just banter and complain. I've done as much contribution as RL will allow (which is in fact more than last game), and I find it frustrating that Loslote has the balls to say I haven't contributed at all before actually reading through my posts and realising I actually have. But that analysis post isn't much better. I read what she had to say about me, then looked back at my own posts and she's definitely twisting my words, whether she means to or not.

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.
You do know this was a banter post, right? And I don't see the harm in some bantering so long as it doesn't continue for several more posts. Actually, that post wasn't completely pointless. I sort of picked up on some comments that had been said (both on Day 1 of this game and also previous games) that I generally found to make the village sound a bit paranoid, and from there I created my own exaggerated, comedic spin on it. And hey, I had fun with it. I didn't think people would really believe I was that paranoid.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.
I don't know what you're reading but I never said I didn't suspect Spm. I was merely stating that I don't think anyone should suspect him for meta-reasons. But at that time, it was still too early for me to think anything of him.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.
The way you highlight "is sad to see SPAM go" looks like you're trying to indicate that I looked like a wolf sad to see my mate go. When in reality I said I was sad to see him go purely for meta-reasons. I even said in the admin thread that one of the reasons I joined the game was because I was excited to see a veteran player like Spm playing again.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.
As you summarise my opinion of Inzil, you leave out some important information. I said while I don't particularly suspect him yet, I do want to keep a closer eye on him. Which indicates I was already worried about him at the time, but not enough to call him a suspect.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.
Pitch already sort of went over this, but I think you may be misinterpreting what I said because you seem to indicate that in my comment I was saying that I thought Inzil sounded innocent in one part of his quote, but suspicious at the end of it. Which is not true. I suggest you go back and read my comment again because there was no part of it that was contradicting.

Roa did state that I took that quote out of context and suspecting him for that was in bad taste. I did pick up that quote after seeing Legate comment on it, and maybe that was an error on my part. I wasn't being careful about that sort of thing, and I admit a lot of that's simply due to the lack of time I have to thoroughly reread posts.

I really don't know what to think of all this. Is Loslote intentionally twisting my words, or is she just misinterpreting what I've said without meaning to? Hopefully I'll make better sense of this after some sleep and closer to deadline.

And might I add as a general statement, I'm quite glad I didn't vote either Nienna or Nog. The Nienna bandwagon looked very bad and I liked it even less that she wasn't around to defend herself. Yet, I wasn't sure enough about her innocence to save her and condemn Nogrod, who I was still unsure about, though slightly leaning towards innocent. If someone finds my vote for Inzil suspicious, then fine. But I don't think that it should be suspicious that I didn't vote for one of the top candidates. If I'm not comfortable voting either of them, why should I?

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Gah, now it's really really late and I probably will not be able to contribute much in the morning. Hopefully I won't oversleep and miss deadline (though what I'm even more concerned about is how I'm going to make it to the lab at a decent hour to finish schoolwork :rolleyes: ). I am so lacking sleep now, so I do apologise in advance if I do happen to misinterpret anything myself in this post.

Craydon1

10-18-2009, 03:51 AM

Well, while I haven't posted today due to doing a lot of stuff, I have had a chance to read most of the post. I've come to the conclusion that since most people consider me a "submarine" (which I find funny) the wolfs will probably come after me soon. So, with that in mind, who am I looking at? Well I personally think Hakon is a wolf since at the time he popped up and said, "Hi, I"m the priest" it was completely unneeded. So that leaves one more puppy hiding about.

Well I'm eliminating Brin based on a little study of human emotions. She got borderline ticked (or at least fooled me) in response to post about her. Heated emotions are a bad thing for someone that's trying to not draw attention to themselves.

I'm actually noticing that other than Nog(who seems to want to rip her throat out with his very non-wolf teeth), no one is analyzing Roa. I'm actually wandering what she would say if she did a analysis of herself? So I'm keeping my eye on her, but not voting for her. I also don't like how Los seems to eagerly agree with everything she says. Now this actually makes him a little creepier than her, because while they can't both be fuzzys lots of people seem to like Roa's analysis. So by vocally backing the person people like, than he can't possibly be a wolf, right?

So the person I'm currently the most focused on is probably Inzil. It would seem to me that he pops up to give mostly empty post that are worded in a manner that comes off as supportive, but not. I really can't tell who he actually supports and who he's truly going after and that sort of person is going to either be 1) a wolf or 2) soon to be eaten by a wolf.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 03:55 AM

I really don't know what to think of all this. Is Loslote intentionally twisting my words, or is she just misinterpreting what I've said without meaning to?

Indeed. Lottie, you never said why you found Brinn suspicious "after looking through her posts". If this is simply due to things that sound suspicious in your version ("Paranoid, suspects everyone" "is sad to see SPAM go" etc.) then you're doing something pretty questionable, since you must know the original context.

If it's something else you've seen in Brinn's posts, you'll have to explain it, because it's anything but self-evident.

EDIT:X'd with Crayon.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 03:59 AM

Oh great. Another bloody reveal.

*headdesk*

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 04:49 AM

Well I'm eliminating Brin based on a little study of human emotions. She got borderline ticked (or at least fooled me) in response to post about her. Heated emotions are a bad thing for someone that's trying to not draw attention to themselves.

Doesn't stop werewolves from having them, though. In fact, overreacting can be a sign of a guilty conscience. I don't particularly suspect Brinn, mind you– I merely speak on general principles.

As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution.

Crayon, in answer to your criticism– look, I don't even know how you play the card game. We've found that in this version, at least, it's better not to rely on any one person's analysis, for a number of reasons.

Now, look– why did you reveal?! :(

wilwarin538

10-18-2009, 05:54 AM

Here for an hour or so before going to church...just reading.

wilwarin538

10-18-2009, 06:30 AM

Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

Exactly, so I don't know why people keep saying Pitch should dream one of us, he's only got a couple left, he should not waste them.

Oh Crayon, why oh why would you do that? A revealed hunter is difficult, cause the wolves may not want to risk killing you incase you've chosen on of them, or they may kill you and you could take an innocent down with you. It's always difficult being a hunter (I was one last game) but a revealed hunter is even more difficult. And right now I don't think it was needed.

So out of those being talked about. Inzil looks fine to me, as does Roa and Lottie. Nerwen somehow has managed to go under my radar, which is weird. Legate seems like normal Legate to me. So does Brinn. Hmm, so I'm nowhere. Everyone just looks good/normal to me. I don't have time to look closely, which is madening.

I'm gonna be honest here and say that I just have time to look through Roa's analises, I know I should do my own and I wish I had the time, but I'm in a crazy rush so this is all I can do. I want my vote to be atleast somewhat informed.

wilwarin538

10-18-2009, 06:41 AM

So I read through those super fast, which I feel aweful about but I have no other choice. Something Roa said about Brinn saying Morsul could be an ord stuck out so I went to find the post:

Obviously Morsul isn't the real seer since he gave up on his act. And I would've said anyway that I don't believe him. For one thing, if Pitch was a wolf sacrificing another to look good, I don't think he would've chosen to sacrifice Spm...anyway it wouldn't be a smart move period to sacrifice on Day One. So is Morsul the agent or a wolf? If he's a wolf, he just blew it for his team; but we can't count out the possibility. Which means at some point in the future we'll probably need to lynch him so not to let the risk of a wolf getting away. Geez, for all we know Morsul could just be an ordo who doesn't know what he's doing. He didn't know how to vote properly yesterDay, so is it possible he doesn't know you're not supposed to fake reveal if innocent? It seems unlikely, but I don't know..

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry. :(

++Brinn

Really have to run now, big rush. Good luck!!

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 06:44 AM

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Oh?

What do you make of Nienna and her attempts to make out that Morsul wasn't "really" impersonating the Dreamer? Firstly she says she wasn't sure whether Morsul had actually revealed, and when I quoted the post in which he said "I'm the Dreamer", she suggests that it was just a joke (which it rather clearly wasn't).

Now, granted, Morsul seems to have a sufficiently shaky grasp of the rules that you couldn't 100% rule out him being an ordo who didn't understand what he was doing
– except, by that point he had basically confessed to being the Agent. (Whether he is that, or a wolf, remains to be seen.) I'm thinking– when a cobbler is exposed, who, besides the cobbler himself, has most reason to be dismayed?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

I would. Even a very confused ordo should have realised that he would only be getting the (presumed) real Dreamer killed if he succeeded. I mean, along with repeatedly denouncing "the impostor" Pitchwife, he also urged the Ranger not to protect him (#166). Does that sound like a misguided ordo trying to draw fire from the real Seer to you? Really?

Or possibly he really does think he's allowed to switch sides.

But of course, if he's just an ordo, then the false Priest– whichever it is– might be the real Agent. In which case if the real Priest were to die toNight, there'd be no call for us to lynch the impostor next Day...

You see why I'm getting worried about Nienna and her "if one of them's a wolf" business?

(emphasis mine) That looks like suspicion to me.

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

If you were second guessing yourself on her, that implies that you intended to vote for her. To ask who to vote for at this time means that you had just then decided not to vote Nienna.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

And you suspected Nienna for expressing that doubt.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

Had you admitted to your suspicion of Nienna, and then acknowledged your change of heart because of what Wilwa did, I may have believed you. But outright denying that you ever suspected her when she was the only person you bothered to bring points against? I think I found a wolf.

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Alright, I figured it was something like that.
[/QUOTE]

tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

Oh, sweetie... the changed is supposed to get killed. That's how you do your job. Though on the brightside, this means that wolves are unlikely to kill you. So I imagine you're hunting Inzil toNight. We'll see how that goes. This could work out quite well for us.

And hey, as long as there isn't a counter reveal, we have another known on our list. And if there is another counter reveal, well, we found our last wolf.

I probably just cross-posted with a bunch.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 06:58 AM

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 07:01 AM

Crayon, in answer to your criticism– look, I don't even know how you play the card game. We've found that in this version, at least, it's better not to rely on any one person's analysis, for a number of reasons.

In the card game, it's entirely verbal. There are no posts to go over and analyze. What someone said is entirely dependent on how well others remember it. Ergo, analysis is rather pointless. People just suspect each other. The Day and Night periods are also significantly shorter, for obvious reasons, meaning there's less time to really consider who you're voting for.

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 07:05 AM

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched. And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 07:13 AM

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal). Plus two people with a 50/50 of being a wolf. (Whether we get a wolf toDay or not, we should definitely start looking at those two toMorrow, as the numbers game will begin to shift away from our favor.)

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 07:21 AM

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched.

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 07:23 AM

This turned into a big conflict, with Lari claiming it meant SPAM was the Agent or, *gasp*, a wolf. If Lari was a wolf, like SPAM, would they make such a big deal out of that little quote? Or were they just bickering to make it seem like they weren't at all connected?
I have been actually wondering, today, if it would be so improbable for those two to really orchestrate this suspicion-exchange... well, but then again, imagining the way it was written... Hm, I will probably read the particular posts again once more, but I don't know.

Hm. SPM's vote for her has been used as reasoning for her being innocent,
but I don't think wolf-on-wolf would be out of the question. As has been pointed out, the vote for her would have seemed safe enough, and unlikely to lead to her lynching, and would set her in a fairly positive light.
Well, that's once again one thing I have been thinking of now. Sort of, it would really serve well to SpM if he had managed to "save" Loslote for all the game by his only vote. Though, on the other hand, it really is not that much like SpM to vote a fellow Wolf on Day 1, and also, there is still time to reconsider it. I do not think I would vote for her just as yet, in any case.

Okay, but apart from those two reconsiderings,

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it.
No, really, if anything, I don't think it makes him look suspicions, and certainly not "highly" suspicious, as you say. I mean, what is suspicious about THAT? And I can see him reaching opposite conclusions that way, if he was thinking "on the way". And that is confirmed by what he said later:
Yes I know. The first line was the original thought that led to the last line which was the final thought.
So I have no reason to suspect him any more based on that. And once again that's what I sorta dislike about Inzil, this jumping to conclusion, you know, it looks like if he was trying to find an easy way to cast suspicion on somebody, "ha, this one can be suspected, because he contradicts himself!" But on the other hand, thinking of it, I do not think he would really do it as a Wolf. I mean, why cast a suspicion on one of the two Rangers, if one of them is his packmate - once the Rangers were eliminated, the third Wolf will be made the target. So in total, it makes me think of Inzil as innocent, actually.

Neither we, nor the wolves, can know whether the Ranger is bluffing or not. Whichever way round it is, I'm surprised the wolves didn't try for the Seer, since their Ranger-candidate can always say either, "Hey, I was bluffing" or else, "I guess they thought I was bluffing," depending on circumstances.
That's what I meant. But I was talking about the Wolves' point of view at that time when you quote it. That is, explaining what would the Wolves think, what could lead them to not kill the Rangers that Night. Which is basically also what you just said.

It's nice to see Nerwen posting, by the way, I don't know what to make of her, though, yet. Remains sort of in the gray zone for me now. Brinniel, on the other hand, looks genuine to me by her last post, and I am sort of worried about the bandwaggon forming against her. I am not going to vote her toDay, most probably.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.
Okay, that what you say in the beginning is quite nice, I would second you (this redundancy is indeed a bit annoying sometimes). But how does that lead to the revelation? I mean, I don't see why anybody would suspect you based on that what you said.
As for the revelation itself. Okay, you say you have played WW at least in the cards, right, so I can imagine the habits might be different, I can see how it could make sense to reveal there, though it's not a habit for the Hunter to reveal here, usually. The point is that now the Wolves are going to avoid killing you, as they might target you. But okay, I am sort of able to accept this. Actually, I would ask another Changed, if there is any, to counter-claim. Because then, we will definitely know if there is somebody lying in here. So actully, quite a good move.

EDIT: x-ed since wilwa 358 or something like that at the bottom of the last page

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 07:26 AM

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal).

Also, the Hunter's perhaps not the wisest role to impersonate.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 07:26 AM

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned. Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna, then when presented with direct evidence to the contrary you admit it. You should have just admitted it from the start.

Edit: crossed

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 07:34 AM

Hi, I'm back. Brinn's first post toDay sounds genuine to me (and being a slow and over-polishing writer myself, I sympathize with her cross-posting problems). Cray's as well, though I don't think his reveal was the brightest thing to do. I mean, in the improbable case that the wolves would go for another no-trail-kill rather than get rid of me toNight, wouldn't it have been very convenient for us if they'd hit the Hunter and he'd taken one of them down with him? That's not very likely to happen now. On the good side, we can treat him as probably innocent for now (unless there's yet another counter-reveal:rolleyes:), which narrows down the number of suspects.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 07:37 AM

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

Whatever. Even by my standards, that's nitpicking.

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned.

No, I said it earlier, too.

Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna

*sigh*

Roa, for the last time, I did not say that. You keep saying I said it, but I didn't. She was one of the people I considered voting, but I did not, as you put it "change my mind" because I had never made it up in the first place.

This is getting frustrating.

EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.

Roa_Aoife

10-18-2009, 07:42 AM

I have to leave for church. I'm not buying Nerwen's defense. I think she's frustrated because she's a wolf and can't talk her way out of it.

++Nerwen

In your very first post you said that you never said you were going to vote for Nienna. That statement implies that you were never considering it, which is a clear lie. Your posts at the end of Day 2, when you said you were discounting Nienna and were no longer sure of who to vote for make it clear that she was your top candidate. By your own admission, you changed your mind because she was going to get lynched. So try to wiggle all you can, your own words have trapped you.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 07:47 AM

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry. :(

++Brinn

Really have to run now, big rush. Good luck!!
Okay, I really don't think this would be a wise way of voting, like I said, and what Brinn said does not seem to me as a case good enough for suspicion, but then, the way wilwa posts her vote ("I know that it's flimsy"), and seemingly in rush, it is explainable, so I am not necessarily adding that to the pile of things for which I would find her suspicious. Of course I hope it isn't just a cover-up for a vote, but then, somehow the concern looks genuine to me.

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

Well, me too. Let's just not get too much at ease, though I think we don't need to be afraid of that now. I just hope you are not the Wolf. But, speaking of that, concerning that Roa-Nerwen exchange now, hard to say, but: Roa, it seems to me that you are slightly becoming your "over-the-top" self, a bit like what you did for example with suspecting me during the last game. I know that it can happen to you and I can see where your points are coming from, but maybe just try to calm down and try to look at everything with a sober eye. Because even an innocent can have slightly inconsistent posts, in some ways, as nobody can write down completely all the thoughts that fly through his head. However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal. Anyway, what I said has nothing to do with my views of Nerwen's posts (that is, I am not saying that Roa may not be right, even though she is a bit zealous here).

EDIT: x-ed witch Pitchwife of Dunwich <= haha, a typo, I am leaving it there :D - and further on

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 07:52 AM

Fine, vote me then.

I hope anyone who is being swayed by Roa will actually check out my post (#351) where I supposedly told all these "lies", and note that I didn't.

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 07:55 AM

Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay. That sounds quite good, to choose just from two people. Let's see if I have time to check the posts of both of them.

I can also check the votes this far, for that matter. If I have time now, let's see.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 07:56 AM

However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal.

I agree. I think she's unlikely to be a wolf, which is what's really annoying about this.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 07:59 AM

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

That is indeed what I think she is "thinking", sort of. Or something along these lines. However, well, like I said.

Anyway, let's see what now.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen. Yup.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 08:10 AM

By the way, Roa, since you have made direct statements about what I said which are demonstrably false, I should say that if either of us is "lying", it's you.:p

Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view):

Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed.

I keep thinking that the "why didn't they kill the Seer?" business ought to shed some light on this... as I said, the wolves really should have tried for the Seer last Night; why didn't they?

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 08:12 AM

Votes so far:
Hakon -> wilwa
Lottie -> Brinn
Cray -> Inzil
wilwa -> Brinn (2)
Roa -> Nerwen
Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

Inziladun

10-18-2009, 08:37 AM

So the person I'm currently the most focused on is probably Inzil. It would seem to me that he pops up to give mostly empty post that are worded in a manner that comes off as supportive, but not. I really can't tell who he actually supports and who he's truly going after and that sort of person is going to either be 1) a wolf or 2) soon to be eaten by a wolf.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.
Of the two of them, it's hard to say who I trust more. I might lean toward Nerwen somewhat at the moment.

My early feeling about Legate has pretty much dissipated, and now I don't have a read on him one way or the other. I'll have to pay more attantion to him, though.

Brinn's defense against Loslote could go either way: as a wolf's overly defensive reaction, or an innocent's honest frustration. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but she will bear some watching.

Which leads me back to Loslote. Her analysis of Brinn didn't help her in my eyes. It did appear that she took a lot of Brinn's words and turned them a bit, and she keeps saying Brinn finds everyone 'paranoid', when I at least thought that first post of Brinn's plainly tongue-in-cheek.

That said, Loslote is probably my vote today.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 08:43 AM

Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

EDIT:X'd with Inziladun.

Inziladun

10-18-2009, 08:48 AM

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

Well, Hakon to me is completely unpredictable, so who knows what he would do?
I would think a Wolfwa probably wouldn't have though.

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 08:54 AM

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?
If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

(x-ed w/ Zil)

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 08:57 AM

Sorry... I've spent my day filing my papers and planning the courses and immersed in it so totally I actually forgot the DL is within an hour... :(

Well, I'll catch up with the latest (I popped in to read some of the posts at noon) and try to make my best then. The Roalysis may not be forthcoming toDay but I might have a chance for it toMorrow... what the wolves decide that is. (and we'd really need a Legatelysis as well... :))

*delves into to the thread*

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 09:02 AM

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

And Zil here was the the last surviving wolf in his first game, and he did make it.

That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 09:05 AM

(Still responding to Pitchwife)

However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:10 AM

Sorry, but I'm going to send them as I read... So no structure but just points I notice while I go over the posts...

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched.That is a good point even if I still think her choice was not a deliberate one having "NO chance of getting lynched". Of the late voters yesterDay I think her vote was the only one that had even a slight chance of producing a result other than me or Nienna (Morsul had one vote already and his lynching had been discussed as a possible way out of a tricky situation - and Nerwen had voiced that alfeady earlier if my memory serves me right). So the question becomes "how strongly Nerwen was for lynching Nienna before the last moments; was she just asking her questions or was she suspecting her enough to lynch her?

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy.I could agree with you here - unless there was a real chance you were the last wolf with Hakon - and that would be like quite understandable comment you could make then...

Lariren Shadow

10-18-2009, 09:27 AM

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

And what of our Rangers? I still really don't like Hakon, I don't like how he makes bold statements then reasons them away without changing them. Why state that Morsul is a wolf in the first sentence only to change it your opinion by the end? I'm beginning to think this is a wolf trying to somehow protect his Agent or a wolf protecting his packmate. Either way I think Hakon is the liar.

So, before I run off,

++Hakon

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:30 AM

Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.I see it as a question of "washing one's hands" from the immediate choice - oftentimes wolvish behaviour as they don't want to be caught fresh from lynching innocents... so a safe-vote and not taking interest of which one of us dies: being happy with as a wolf or too unsure as innocent? I can see both options to be real.

Nerwen makes some sense in refuting some of Roa's analysis as I think Roa did exaggerate with the "case". But that's a tough one to call. I don't think Nerwen ever "downright denied" having suspected Nienna so the question still is over how serious she were and what were her motives in the change of target...

Brinn's more heated defence over Loslote's analysis looks quite credible indeed. Or then it's just the wolf-nerves... :rolleyes:

Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari??? :eek:

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 09:30 AM

I think toMorrow will be time to start sorting out our Priest claimants. Based on what they've said about their protections up to now, and assuming they told the truth:

I'm killed -> Hakon is the Priest (he said he'd protect me last Night), wilwa is a wolf;
I'm saved -> Hakon is a wolf, wilwa is the Priest (she said she couldn't protect me last Night, but would toNight);
I'm left alone -> wolves deserve what's coming to them.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 09:34 AM

Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?
Well, I am not sure if it will be wise for the two remaning WWs to both vote for the same person in the way that they will start a bandwagon. But anything is possible, of course.

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.
Hmm, once again I was wondering here, on first reading once again disliking Inzil's way of "suspecting" people, but then again, on second thought, it is really like an innocent asking questions. I am really starting to feel a lot better about him.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.
Roa indeed is like that often when innocent. The zeal is disconcerting, that is true, but it is not a sign of wolvery. It's a problem of a different sort.

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.
Hm, well, I am wondering about Loslote, starting to doubt her a bit more, true. But not sure if I would be voting her, not yet, maybe, like I said before.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.
That would be interesting to know, what Lottie thinks of her in general... I mean, as about a player in general... Though of course now she could say whatever she thinks.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?
I guess it is possible, as well as anything. Of course maybe not the most clever, but even a newbie could slip by, and I know many times the WWs not planned, but were forced to do it so - because simply all the "veteran" Wolves were caught earlier - and the newbie, because of being relatively a newbie, managed to slip through all the game, or through a large part of it. And we have even heard about several examples above.

I did not get the chance, alas, to properly re-read neither Nerwen's or Lari's posts. Not sure what to do. If Loslote is going to be lynched, I would not oppose it, probably, as I think there is a distinct chance that she could be the Wolf, but I am not going to vote her, most likely. Okay, I will really try to reread something and then see.

EDIT: x-ed with Lari and onwards

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 09:39 AM

Brinniel

10-18-2009, 09:40 AM

Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.

I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents.

As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too.

But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline.

EDIT: x-ed with several posts

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:42 AM

Okay, I finally made it.

Roa looks a bit over the top and I wouldn't lynch Nerwen toDay based on that. That doesn't mean I think Nerwen has to be innocent though.

I might echo Legate in not being against lynching Loslote as her posting looks so hard to follow at times. She could distract us more than help if we have to think about it all the time whether she's just not able to read what others say or is intentionally twisting things to make her arguments... And she coulsd well be the wolf as well as any other. (heh, nice to be a known innocent to finally be able to say this kind of a thing which would have gotten me lynched in another situation... :))

And some of her posts sure look suspicious... like the posts of many others... :confused:

Inziladun

10-18-2009, 09:42 AM

Right, then.

++ Loslote

My best guess at this point.

x'd with Brinn and Nog

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 09:44 AM

DL approaching... might as well get this over with.
++Loslote
Not for any seerish reasons, obviously, and it may be tunnel vision on my part, but she's still the one I feel most uncomfortable about, mostly because of her votes based on clear misrepresentations in the cases of Nog and Brinn.

(x-ed w/ Nerwen #391 etc.)

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 09:49 AM

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal?
Because if somebody counter-claimed, we would catch the last Wolf, and this way, we know one more innocent and won't lynch him. Are you genuinely confused or are you just trying to make us doubt him? It bothers me, things like this, but I would find it weird if a Wolf was doing this, because it cannot help him - I mean, if there is no counter-claim, then we know we can trust Crayon. Though a Wolf who is not thinking that far (just as well as innocent who is not thinking that far to recognise what good sides it could have for Crayon to reveal) could still say that.

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws.
Not ONLY from that, of course. Quite the contrary, that was the thing that originally made me think you are innocent, and later I started to wonder if it can be also the other way around. I was slightly disconcerted by your posting and behavior overall and watching you. This is only the last, as you say, straw.

Okay, it would really help me to make a better picture of Lari if I knew how much she actually is really around and has time to properly absorb what's happening on the thread and how much is intentional misinterpretation of stuff (that goes for both of the above quotes, for example). I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari. But let's see if, or more likely what, did I crosspost with...

EDIT: of course x-ed since my last. Okay, let's see.

Brinniel

10-18-2009, 09:49 AM

Pitchwife, if you are killed, I will not assume one way or another about the rangers. Because the real ranger could've easily bluffed at some point. wilwa said she protected you the Night before, but she might've said that so the wolves would try to kill you the next Night only to be protected. And in the same way, just because Hakon said he'd protect you last Night doesn't mean he did. If he thought the wolves wouldn't risk it, he could've made a bluff and protected someone else. Really there's no way to know who the real ranger is until one is dead.

Pitchwife

10-18-2009, 09:51 AM

Hence my assuming they told the truth.

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:53 AM

And we should probably solve the "ranger mystery" toMorrow...

I don't want to see Roa, Legate, Brinn or Nerwen lynched toDay as they can make sense - and be caught form their words.

Also we should not touch Hakon, wilwa or Morsul

Leaving Pitchie out as well... and Crayon, I'd have:

Loslote
Inzil
Lari

To choose from.

Inzil is the hard one as there are things both ways with him.

There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean).

With Loslote I'm just mostly worried. She might be a distracted innocent to be sure but it is very hard to get a read on her odd analysis / reasonings - which feel malicious at worst.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 09:56 AM

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?
Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this. Though it looks like Loslote is going for the gallows now.

Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

I agree with that it seems to show that he is more likely the Agent. Of course it would be bad if he was a Wolf, but one bright side is, if Morsul does not appear at all, he will be eventually modfired.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Btw can anybody give a vote count anyway?

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 09:56 AM

Well, I'm going to vote either Lari or Loslote. Just stating my intentions so there'll be no argument from Roa tomorrow.:p

Loslote for reasons given already, Lari mainly for her last post.

Brinniel

10-18-2009, 09:57 AM

Inzil and Loslote are my two suspects right now, and at this point I have more reason to be concerned about Lottie.

++Loslote

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:57 AM

Am I right?

2 votes
Brinn, Loslote

1 vote
wilwa, Inzil, Nerwen

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:58 AM

So three votes might do the trick still...

What say you: Lari or Loslote?

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-18-2009, 09:58 AM

Let's see.

++Lari

EDIT: x-ed from Brinn on

Nogrod

10-18-2009, 09:59 AM

Blah, didn't see Brinn's vote...

Why then Legate?

Then be it...

++ Loslote

Edit: Okay, saw Legate's edit...

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 10:00 AM

++Lari

EDIT:X'd with everyone since my last post. My connection suddenly got really slow, and it took that long to load. No kidding.

McCaber

10-18-2009, 10:00 AM

Deadline. Loslote is lynched. She was an Ordinary Villager

Nerwen

10-18-2009, 10:04 AM

So I believe Loslote's for it?

EDIT:X'd with Mod.

McCaber

10-19-2009, 10:00 AM

The first glint of sunlight broke over the ocean. The sky was a beautiful tint of watery gold, and it just feels like a perfect day.

When the early risers of the village made it into the streets, they noticed that the city was a bit wetter than usual. Everyone met in the central square to count off their numbers and see who didn't make it through the night.

To their surprise, it turned out that they were all still alive. This was a bit of a mystery, until Inziladun started walking towards the docks to work. He found a large group of watery footprints coming from the sea to the square. The curious villagers examined the cobblestones a little closer. The chinks of the pavement were caked with blood; some of it red and most of it a bluish green.

And the realization hit. For some reason it was here that the Water Brothers took a stand to defend their people. They really do care.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen [ordinary villager]
Loslote, humble seamstress [ordinary villager]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Pitchwife, heretical organist
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

IT IS NOW DAY 4. YOU KNOW THE DRILL.

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 10:18 AM

So I take it from the narration that we had a successful night with the rangers. I do believe that makes Wilwa our trusted one and Hakon the lying wolf. See, I told you it would work itself out.

So who has been supporting Hakon or denouncing Wilwa? Or just propagating the confusion?

I need to look back through, assuming that Pitch didn't find our last wolf last Night.

In the meantime, here is what I worked up on Loslote's lynch:

Loslote Voters

Inzil- put Loslote in the running
Pitch- Tied Loslote with Brinn
Brinn- Put Lostlote in the lead
Nogrod- Voted last

Pitch and Nogrod are known innocents.

Following the suspicion train...*choochoo*
(Names of the people making the comment are bolded, what they said about Loslote is in italics.)

At the begining of the Day the first person to mention suspicion of Loslote was Loslote, who pointed out that Inzil had been mildly suspecting her through out the game. Inzil agrees in a cross post edit.

The next person to mention Loslote was me, in a brief breakdown of the votes. I said she was probably innocent. Next I asked her why he suspected Brinn, we had an exchange and I accepted her answer.

Next is Nogrod, who makes a brief breakdown of the votes. No remark on Loslote's guilt or innocence.

Legate is next to mention Loslote in an edit. He thinks she's innocent.

I do an analysis of Loslote, as promised, and find nothing suspicious.

Loslote does an analysis of Brinn and continues suspecting her.

Next Pitchwife points out that Loslote's analysis of Brinn is flawed

Nogrod does another vote-reason list, and then analysis: thinks Loslote has poor reasoning for her votes, but isn't sure if it's newbieness or wolfishness.

Pitch comes back and says that Lottie is misreperesenting people.

Loslote explains his vote for Nogrod, and Pitch accepts but says that he will continue watching her.

Loslote votes for Brinn

I say that I don't believe Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting Brinn.

Hakon decides that Loslote must be a wolf based on a (rather convoluted) theory about that players' styles and status.

Inzil does an analysis of Loslote, is on the fence about her guilt.

Brinn responds to Loslote's accusations, believes Loslote is possibly misrepresenting her on purpose.

Crayon finds Loslote creepy and suspicous.

Nerwen points out that Loslote never said why she found Brinn suspicious, and her methods are questionable.

Wilwa says that Loslote looks fine.

Nerwen says the possibilities for wolf are Loslote, Roa, or Inzil

Pitch suggests that Loslote and Wilwa are two wolves trying to start a bandwagon on Brinn.

Inzil says he will probably vote Loslote

Nerwen wants to here from Lottie, suggests that the revealed wolf would not have left a newbie alone with a false reveal (That is, another wolf wouldn't abandon Loslote.)

Legate says he wouldn't oppose Loslote being lynched, but won't vote for her himself.

Brinn still suspects Loslote over the faulty analysis.

Nogrod is also not opposed to lynching Loslote

Inzildun votes for Loslote.

Pitch votes for Loslote.

Nogrod is just worried about Loslote.

Legate states that Loslote is probably going to get lynched.

Nerwen says she will vote for either Lari or Loslote.

Brinn votes for Loslote.

Nogrod asks whether he should vote Lari or Loslote. Votes Loslote.

Nerwen double checks that Loslote is now lynched.

Now my thoughts:

Inzil has kept on Loslote from the beginning, so one can hardly say that he jumped on the bandwagon. He did keep the door of suspicion open, though.

Legate begins the Day thinking Loslote is innocent, and the next time he mentions her, he doesn't mind her getting lynched. He also refuses to vote for her himself, which confuses me. If you think someone might be a wolf, you vote for them. If you don't think someone is a wolf, then you shouldn't be okay with them getting lynched.

Hakon's reasoning this game has been very poor, and if he wasn't a possible gifted, he probably would have been lynched by now.

Nerwen fluctuates. She says that Loslote is suspicious, that she's one the possible remaining wolves, and that she's voting for either her or Lari. But she also suggests that a more experienced player wouldn't have left a newbie wolf alone with a false reveal. Then she double checks to see if Loslote is dead after yet again avoiding being involved in the actual lynch. (Oh yes, I still suspect you.)

Brinn seems to be suspecting Loslote for suspecting her. Don't know what to make of that, as wolves and innocents do it in equal measure.

Personally, I think the lynching of Loslote went down far too easily. I think it's clear that a wolf was in there greasing the wheels. (Two, counting Hakon, but I should hope no one took his reasoning seriously.)

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 10:33 AM

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 11:05 AM

*whistles tunelessly*

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 11:55 AM

Okay, so that was quite a nice evocation from our Priest. Looks quite hopeful. Looking forward to hear from the Priests in person the explanation of what they have been doing at Night.

Anyway, as for now...

Legate begins the Day thinking Loslote is innocent, and the next time he mentions her, he doesn't mind her getting lynched. He also refuses to vote for her himself, which confuses me. If you think someone might be a wolf, you vote for them. If you don't think someone is a wolf, then you shouldn't be okay with them getting lynched.
Okay, for a clarification of this. Firstly, it was not that I would suddenly not mind her lynched after being totally sure about her innocence before, but I have (or at least I think so) spoken about her in the meantime as wondering whether it would be safe to assume her innocent all the game based on SpM's sole vote, but letting her be for the time being. I quite well remember saying something like that. You can look it up for sure.
Aside from that, I did not mind her lynched, but she was not by any means my top suspect. Basically, she was not my suspect much at all for the time being (like I said above), but I decided that it is not a pain for me if she is lynched now, as she could well be the Wolf, who knows? I hope you understand what I mean. It was clear she was heading for the lynch and I did not care that much to try to stop the lynch or something, but I still would not vote her. I did not have much hope for lynching Lari, but it was she who was still my priority. This is why I did not vote Loslote. But I was not really against lynching Loslote.

Speaking of that, I am now quite keen on continuing what I think should have been done yesterDay, that is, lynching Lari. But I will first review her posts again, review her votes, and also see if she is going to post anything.

Also probably the most important thing we are waiting for now is Pitchwife's dream, too.

And then we can start also deciding whether to start doing something about the Rangers, like Roa suggested.

Personally, I think the lynching of Loslote went down far too easily. I think it's clear that a wolf was in there greasing the wheels.
I think so too and I think it is likely that either the Wolf was somebody in the bandwaggon - which, though, does not help much, as there were many people (though I will look at it yet, who voted whom and when and why) - or somebody who gave a totally throwaway vote to be out of the bandwaggon for good. That would maybe not be too wise, but see Hakon or Lari. If these two are WWs, for example, they would both give just totally dodging votes to avoid any associations with anything.

Okay, but for now, I am going to be probably around - not sure how much long, I don't want to sit here for hours - and see. Looking forward to people starting to appear.

EDIT: what? No x-post? Where is the joy of the Cthulhu-blessed village...

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 12:02 PM

I couldn't find any between posts where you mention Loslote. If they're there, please point them out. In the mean time, I'm off to work.

I guess the rest of the village are late risers?

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 12:04 PM

*sigh* I just realized that we have no way of knowing who the wolves attacked. I don't know why they wouldn't attack Pitch, but then, I don't know why they wouldn't kill the real ranger, either. As it stands, assuming Pitch hasn't found another wolf, I think we should take care of them toDay.

I wish we could know who the wolves went for, as that could well give us some clues. I too am very surprised Pitch didn't get it last Night. They sure are taking an awful risk leaving him around. But is it newbie inexperience, or veteran cunning?
At least we get a dream from him, and that can only be a good thing.
I too think it's time to settle the ranger question. Actually, it was time yesterDay. :rolleyes:

x'd with Legate and Roa

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 12:31 PM

I too think it's time to settle the ranger question. Actually, it was time yesterDay. :rolleyes:
Hmm, well, do we really want to do it yet, after the fateful save last Night? I mean, of course the Wolves now know that their target would be unprotected next Night, but still, don't we want to give it a Day yet? I mean, there is still almost the same number of us like yesterDay. Personally I am willing to give it one more Day to try to find a Wolf elsewhere, though I can understand the reasons for dealing with the problem now. Yet, for the sake of clarity, I would keep the Rangers around as long as Pitchwife lives. Because the Wolves may out of stupidity or other reasons still keep him alive, it is perhaps a 1% chance that they will do it, but once we lynch the Rangers, it is clear that he will go the following Night (and in worse case, we will lynch our Ranger and lose one Day with it).

And Roa, it was this mid-late yesterDay's post of mine (you can click the link to read it full, the part I had in mind was this):
Well, that's once again one thing I have been thinking of now. Sort of, it would really serve well to SpM if he had managed to "save" Loslote for all the game by his only vote. Though, on the other hand, it really is not that much like SpM to vote a fellow Wolf on Day 1, and also, there is still time to reconsider it. I do not think I would vote for her just as yet, in any case.

Okay, but apart from those two reconsiderings,
I have included also the last line (which was opening another part of my post), as it relates to it. "Reconsidering" is what I just did in the paragraph above this. So from this point on, Loslote was no longer 100% (or 90%, as it was) innocent for me.

Hakon

10-19-2009, 01:36 PM

My plan worked. Pitchwife let us hope you had a good dream last night since I can no longer protect you. The truth is on night two I protected Pitchwife. I realized that I could have not protected him and he still would have lived. I decided to reveal in order to make the wolves think I was going to protect him that third night. In reality I protected myself in case they decided to try and kill me. Last night I protected Pitchwife. The wolves went for him. If you lynch me today you will lose your seer tonight and find out who a wolf is. I have to reveal my plan here since most likely I will get lynched today or Pitchwife killed tonight. I cannot trick the wolves into thinking I did not protect Pitchwife last night since they know they attacked Pitchwife and he was protected. Goodbye my villagers.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 01:49 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 01:51 PM

Yog-SOTHOTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 02:03 PM

Way to go ranger!

Sadly we may be lynching you...

But as there was no kill last Night we should actually consider Legate's suggestion of waiting one more Day with it even if I'm not sure it's the best policy we have... Let's think about it (myself included).

And Pitchie's dream will tell us something.

A few thoughts on the Loslote-wagon to come in a moment...

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 02:07 PM

Rejoice, o Innsmouth, for Cthulhu is great and bountiful!
He also has a healthy appetite for human sacrifice. Alas for innocent Lottie! I now deeply regret going after her yesterDay, pursuing the wrong track like I often do when unenlightened by supernatural guidance.
But now for toDay's business. Thanks to the protective prayers of our true Priest, my dreams were undisturbed last Night, and the insight I gained is...

*drumroll*

:p

Sorry for being so theatrical - I know you're all very curious, but I'd like to wait a little until both our Priest claimants have had their say.

Lariren Shadow

10-19-2009, 02:08 PM

I'm horribly busy today with work and school today.

So are we going to assume the wolves went after the Seer? Why? The wolves could have gone after anyone and considering they didn't try to kill Pitch before it could be entirely possible that they went for someone else.

Legate, what else do you suspect me for? I see for my comment on Day 1 about SPM, other things that you don't even cite, and my vote for Hakon who I've suspected since Day 1 and have stated reasons for suspecting? I honestly don't believe he's the Ranger at all, and considering his post toDay I don't like it that much more either. It's easy for a WolfRanger to explain away a missed kill by claiming to have been protecting the Seer.

Anyway, I'm going back to reading a defense of poetry now.

Edit: Oh, x-posted with Pitch and Nog.

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 02:25 PM

Hakon, if you truly pulled off such a complicated bluff, it's very much appreciated.
The only problem with what you say is that usually, the ranger cannot protect xerself. I just checked the Admin Thread, however, and found that McCaber's description of the roles doesn't explicitly exclude that possibility. Maybe some Mod clarification would be in order here - otherwise, you may just be desperately trying to talk yourself out of the hangman's noose, for all I can tell. So:

McCaber, can the Priest protect xerself?

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 02:29 PM

*****taps fingers impatiently*****

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 02:31 PM

Legate, what else do you suspect me for? I see for my comment on Day 1 about SPM, other things that you don't even cite, and my vote for Hakon who I've suspected since Day 1 and have stated reasons for suspecting? I honestly don't believe he's the Ranger at all, and considering his post toDay I don't like it that much more either. It's easy for a WolfRanger to explain away a missed kill by claiming to have been protecting the Seer.

Hm, actually, now I have at last managed to get myself to properly re-read your posts once again, and I start finding you less suspicious than I thought. I guess from large part, it was a kind of feeling during the game. Aside from that, there were issues like your non-voting at some points, and then the things you mentioned, although many of them are fairly recent. I think mainly the thing was that you seemed to me the most logical player to pick the Night kills which have been picked, and basically the fact that by elimination method, you remained as the one who seemed yet suspicious enough for me. Alongside Nerwen. This sort of shifts my focus on her now. (That means, I should also go through her posts.)

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 02:34 PM

*****taps fingers impatiently*****
Hey, man, relax. I always thought fishermen were such patient people...

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 02:37 PM

Hey, man, relax. I always thought fishermen were such patient people...

Patience isn't required when the Deep Ones drive them to you. ;)

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 02:39 PM

Aside from that, there were issues like your non-voting at some points
When? She voted SpM on Day 1, Nienna on Day 2, Hakon on Day 3.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 02:40 PM

Hey, man, relax. I always thought fishermen were such patient people...

Iäääää! The eternal triangle-shaped concave-angled black primal bubble!

Okay, that sounded... interesting, for certain. Coffee, anyone?

I will really try to go through Nerwen's posts before more happens around here.

EDIT:x-ed

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 02:43 PM

When? She voted SpM on Day 1, Nienna on Day 2, Hakon on Day 3.

*headdesk*

I totally missed her vote on second Day, then! When was it? Okay, I am going to check that, because I am apparently also more blind than Azathoth...

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 02:45 PM

*headdesk*

I totally missed her vote on second Day, then! When was it? Okay, I am going to check that, because I am apparently also more blind than Azathoth...

Okay, found it. I have been thinking for all the time that she only speculated, but did not actually vote then... :rolleyes:

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 02:45 PM

Loslote got lynched by four votes.

Hakon -> wilwa
Loslote -> Brinn
Crayon -> Inzil
wilwa -> Brinn 2
Roa -> Nerwen
Lari -> Hakon
Inzil -> Lottie
Pitch -> Lottie
Brinn -> Lottie
Legate -> Lari
Nogrod -> Lottie 4
Nerwen -> Lari 2

(the last three votes were more or less claimed crossposts...)

Of Lottie-lynchers only Inzil and Brinn are unknowns.

First thing:
two of the Lottie-voters were innocent, it is possible a third - or a fourth one - was innocent as well.

Because of the...

Second thing:
As it is highly probable that either Hakon or Wilwa is a wolf, then looking at the last votes there was no difference in the outcome, whether Lottie or Lari got killed (as Lari was not herself involved in the last voyes). So a wolf among those last voters had no special agenda as to whom to vote as it could not have been a case of protecting a mate.

From that follows, that the wolf's decision must have been based on other reasons than who gets lynched ie. how would that vote make her/him look.

Which brings us to the...

Third thing:
The chance of getting Lari lynched at the last minute was a small one indeed - so a safe place for a last minute-voter wolf?

But we must also remember a...

Fourth thing:
As voting Lottie doesn't prove one a wolf it doesn't prove one innocent either. Inzil might have made a fairly safe vote starting the whole thing after lots of people had suspected her. If Brinn is a wolf she must praise Lottie for giving her such an understandable reason to vote her...

And let's not forget either that...

Fifth thing:
Lari voted for Hakon which was both counter-productive and odd. Would a wolf do that? And Roa went basically on a crusade against Nerwen downplaying anything she had to say for her defence. Would she be that assertive as a wolf... no doubt about that. Would she be that assertive as an ordo... no doubt about that either... :)

So I ended up in a stalemate. :(

Let me chew these for a moment...

EDIT: X'd with a lot... great, people around!

wilwarin538

10-19-2009, 03:14 PM

Just coming on real quick while at work, I'll go into more detail about this later on tonight when I get home, I don't have much time right now. Just wanted to do this before people started to vote...

Please don't lynch Hakon!! He really is the Ranger!

I would have kept this going longer, to see how much longer we could fool the wolves to keep Pitch alive, but I don't want to risk you guys lynching Hakon and there's no way they'd have kept Pitch alive past today anyway since he was protected last night.

Now I now Wolf is the first thing to pop into your heads, but I swear I'm not. I started to freak out when two of our gifteds came out and really didn't want to lose the Seer again so soon (since it's happened so much recently), so I decided to pretend to be the Ranger in order to keep the Seer around longer (and it worked, since he's still here). I got the idea from the last game I played when Mnemo and I wanted the Seer to reveal so that the village and Ranger could take turns protecting him.

I know it was crazy, and you'll all suspect me now, but hey, it worked. We've gotten 2 more dreams then we may have had if I hadn't of done this.

Sorry to do this and run, but I really don't have any more time. I may be able to hop on again quickly on my next break, but if not it won't be for another 5 hours before I come back on. Will be here for the last 3ish hours before DL though.

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 03:15 PM

Lari voted for Hakon which was both counter-productive and odd. Would a wolf do that?
Well, in order to distance herself from a packmate, perhaps; but considering she's been quite consistently suspecting him all the time, I think we can rule out that possibility.

x-ed w/ wilwa. Gosh!

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 03:18 PM

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:20 PM

Huh! :eek: :smokin:

Well, well, well...

Interesting is quite a lame word here.

Now we need you Pitchie! Especially with your hinting of what you said about you wishing to wait for the rangers to come forwards...

If you confirm what wilwa says we have two possibilities: either it's wilwa's last defence as she realised by your hint that you have checked one of them - and she goes with the only hope she has which is that you have checked Hakon.

Or then she speaks the truth... meaning we have two unknown wolves around still...

Why does it have to be past midnight here (RL)? :mad:

Hakon

10-19-2009, 03:22 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:22 PM

Pitch, any insight on this?

I was just about to say that.

Okay, now, let me think about it. I need to think about it. Really need to think about it.

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:23 PM

I'm getting a bad feeling there are some general tricksiness in this game... with Mr. Lovecraft involved that would not be an unheard of idea. :confused:

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:25 PM

Why does it have to be past midnight here (RL)? :mad:

Exactly.

Initial thoughts: we could go through wilwa's posts to see if she said somewhere something that would prove otherwise (like suspecting Hakon in a way she would not have done if she were just posing to the WWs or something).

I wouldn't put it past the WWs to make a "back-up plan" like that, or maybe wilwa making it up in place, although to be honest, if it is so, I am surprised, as I did not expect it this far... my view on the WWs was this far that they are rather less... hmm... constructive, or how to say it.

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:27 PM

Wilwa could be lying. I mean if you did all lynch me then she is revealed as the wolf if she had not made that post. She knows I cannot protect Pitchwife tonight since I already revealed my plan and the wolves know I protected Pitchwife last night.WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you? :confused:

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything? :rolleyes:

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:27 PM

I'm getting a bad feeling there are some general tricksiness in this game... with Mr. Lovecraft involved that would not be an unheard of idea. :confused:

Eurgh. I have thought of that on the Day when Morsul and the two Rangers revealed, but I have firmly rejected it. I hope not. And I am not going to accept it. Let us stay focused, that's all we can do.

EDIT: keeping x-ing...

Hakon

10-19-2009, 03:29 PM

WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you? :confused:

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything? :rolleyes:

I meant if you had lynched me and she never made that post. If I was lynched and she did not make that post at all today then she would be revealed as a wolf. I refuse to believe she is an innocent. I know a Wolfwa when I see one.

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:31 PM

Eurgh. I have thought of that on the Day when Morsul and the two Rangers revealed, but I have firmly rejected it. I hope not. And I am not going to accept it. Let us stay focused, that's all we can do.
Likewise. And I agree with your conclusion as well... until the given setting starts to look too inbearable to hold.

Then we have to start finding new ways to solve this.

But before that we should stick to do our best with what we have in a sane-scenario...

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:31 PM

WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you? :confused:

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything? :rolleyes:

Okay, I am not sure now that I understood what either of you is saying. Hakon, what are you trying to say? I cannot somehow decipher the thought. (For the same reason, I can't tell what is that Nogrod is wondering about.)

EDIT: x-ed again, okay, now I think I could (maybe, hopefully) understand it.

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 03:31 PM

This game is getting crazier and crazier...

I'm getting a bad feeling there are some general tricksiness in this game... with Mr. Lovecraft involved that would not be an unheard of idea. :confused:

You and me both.

I wish we could know who the wolves went for, as that could well give us some clues. I too am very surprised Pitch didn't get it last Night. They sure are taking an awful risk leaving him around.

Now why did you make that assumption?

X'd since Nogrod at #440.

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:33 PM

I think I saw your point Hakon...

Language barrier... ot different ways of conceptualising things... whatever.

Hakon

10-19-2009, 03:33 PM

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:36 PM

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 03:37 PM

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 03:40 PM

Now why did you make that assumption?

Isn't the seer always a danger to the wolves? The greatest threat to them?

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:40 PM

I think Wilwa made that post because she is a wolf that wanted to escape getting revealed as one. If I was lynched she would be revealed as a wolf. By making that post Wolfwa made it seem like she was an innocent and she could avoid getting me lynched which would reveal her.

Seerwife(hope you don't mind), we need your dream.

... or after you were killed by Night we wouldn't lynch her the next Day...

Yes, I guess that's the point. Brilliant, well. What next, then. Somehow, I am still thinking about lynching wilwa. It is clear, at least, rather than anything else, that Hakon is not a Wolf, which is a good thing.

Let's see our Dreamer's dream, then.

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:43 PM

Isn't the seer always a danger to the wolves? The greatest threat to them?Yes s/he is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 03:44 PM

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 03:44 PM

Yes it is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

My point exactly.

EDIT:X'd with Pitch.

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 03:45 PM

Yes s/he is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

I wasn't speaking solely of last Night, just the fact that he's still here after being revealed on Day 1. Should have been clearer, I guess.

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 03:47 PM

Nogrod

10-19-2009, 03:51 PM

As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?Actually it's a good idea, even if the wolves will be really careful after this revelation of yours as they don't know which one of them was dreamt... *hush*

Just don't leave your revelation too late so no confusions of possible last minute frenzies get us...

So a wolf in a bag toDay! Great!

Off to bed with a lighter heart (it's coming 1.00AM here and waking-up call is at 6.30AM)...

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 03:58 PM

Sorry, I can't shed any light on the ranger question. As we all assumed one of them was a wolf, I just decided to let them stew a little and see if one of them would give xerself away. I certainly didn't expect this result.
As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?

Well, at first, is there anything, based on what you know now, Pw, that could point to Wilwa being the other Wolf?

We can think more later. If there is the other Wolf, I see it can be clever to keep your dreamwolf around for a while yet to see people's reactions. On the other hand, we probably are not going to collect much as the WWs will become initially careful (from this point when you said it on, probably, actually). So we can as well lynch the one.

You should certainly give us the name... well, or you could try to pull it off by letting us choose a person for lynch toDay by our best conscience, and tell your Wolf's name to us only just before the DL, but there's the point that some mistakingly reasoning innocents might get caught in the trap and get suspected then. Especially as the WWs will know... but then, they could be caught based on "too coldblooded reasoning"... but then again... well, whatever.

I wasn't speaking solely of last Night, just the fact that he's still here after being revealed on Day 1. Should have been clearer, I guess.

And what of it?

EDIT: x-ed with nog

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-19-2009, 04:12 PM

Okay, possibly my last thought before going to bed.

The way I see the situation now is this: we really should (or: alas, need to) probably lynch wilwa at some point. Because unless we lynch some other Wolf (aside from the one Pitchwife dreamt of), then we will basically never know whether there is the last Wolf somewhere out there or if it is Wilwa. In that case, the most logical, although perhaps slightly coldblooded, but really rational, choice would be to lynch Wilwa toDay, and then see. And if wilwa turns out innocent, then we will have one more Day of interaction of a known Wolf, if Pitch does not reveal his dream yet now but only at the end of the Day. (A little value in that, but could be at least something.)

But really the more I write the more I think that wilwa is a Wolf. Because really, if the WWs are really in bad condition now - and they are, the Seer is still alive - they would try to kill him. And when they kill him, they would be exposed, likely, if one of them is the Ranger. So wilwa's revelation as an ordo was really probably the most logical thing to do, basically the only thing that was left for the WWs.

So in conclusion, I think she could be one.

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 04:17 PM

Just don't leave your revelation too late so no confusions of possible last minute frenzies get us...
Don't worry. I'll have to go to bed in a while, and I won't be around after Tuesday 9am GMT, but I'll let you all know before that.

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 05:04 PM

Well, at first, is there anything, based on what you know now, Pw, that could point to Wilwa being the other Wolf?
If you're asking for possible connections between my dreamwolf and wilwa, you realize I can hardly answer this without revealing who the dreamwolf is, don't you?
Apart from that, I confess that I haven't been looking at wilwa very closely outside of the ranger question. I'm doing that now, and one thing I've noticed is that she was our late Kit's prime suspect on Day 1. As Roa noticed, wilwa never commented on Kit's suspicions of her.
As for her anti-reveal toDay... Well. There was always a slight possibility we'd believe her and lynch Hakon, and I think it would have been wise for a wilwolf to make a Plan B for that case. By now, she'd have had 2 Days to prepare it.

PS. Hakon, I forgot: well done. Thank you.

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 05:15 PM

Voting records of those still living (Pitch and Nog excluded), for anyone who might find it useful:

Day 1

Morsul--> Nienna
Hakon--> Me
Craydon--> Me
Wilwa--> Hakon
Roa--> SPM (1st vote, pre-Pitch's reveal)
Me--> SPM
Nerwen--> SPM
Lari--> SPM
Brinn--> SPM

Lynched- SPM

Day 2

Hakon--> Wilwa
Morsul--> Hakon
Craydon--> Morsul
Wilwa--> Nienna
Me--> Nienna
Lari--> Nienna
Roa--> Nog
Nerwen--> Morsul
Brinn--> Me
Legate--> Me

Lynched- Nienna

Day 3

Craydon--> Me
Hakon--> Wilwa
Me--> Loslote
Wilwa--> Brinn
Brinn--> Loslote
Morsul--> No Vote
Roa--> Nerwen
Lari--> Hakon
Legate--> Lari
Nerwen--> Lari

Lynched- Loslote

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 05:51 PM

Wilwa's votes and explanations:

The Day 1 vote was for Hakon, saying that his rationale for voting me was thin (it was, but still...).

So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them so

++ Hakon

Day 2 was for Nienna. This one bothered me especially, as it came very soon after I had done a post on why I felt Nienna suspicious. She used similar wording to mine to justify the vote.

Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.

++Nienna

And then Day 3, for Brinn. She based it on Brinn remarking that Morsul could be an ordo making a fake reveal. Brinn didn't appear to me to seriously consider that possibility, so this does look like a reach.

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry. :(

++Brinn

Pitchwife

10-19-2009, 05:53 PM

OK. After some retro-investigation, I'm inclined to agree with Legate that our wolves may not need that much more rope after all.
Lari is my dreamwolf.
What does that tell us about wilwa? Look at the Nienna bandwagon on Day 2. wilwa started it, Lari seconded it. And Lari's been quite supportive of wilwa all the time (a connection which Kit spotted early, probably the reason she was killed). wilwa, on the other hand, seems to have taken great care not to mention Lari at all, as far as I can see - which would be clever, as it would have brought both of them under suspicion if they'd been too obviously connected. The case seems pretty clear to me, but go look for yourselves.
Anyway, let's lynch the known wolf before the probable one, so:
++Lariren Shadow
Good night.

Craydon1

10-19-2009, 06:02 PM

A million thanks to Pitch for letting those of us that have a long day tomorrow have it easy tonight. Because I trust our seer's dreams, I will go with them.
++Lari.

Hakon

10-19-2009, 06:04 PM

++Lari

I knew it was her. I looked over the votes today and I realized both Wilwa and Morsul voted for me at one point or another so I had a faint idea that the third wolf voted for me as well. I thought Lari. We caught two wolves today. YAY.

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 06:12 PM

I was just re-reading... but I didn't get very far... too exasperated by Roa's latest (#411).

She summarises what everyone else said regarding Loslote yesterDay. Now, the first thing that strikes me is the degree to which she blows her own trumpet over not having suspected Loslote:

I said she was probably innocent.

(...)

I do an analysis of Loslote, as promised, and find nothing suspicious.

(...)

I say that I don't believe Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting Brinn.

I'm just saying, how often do people summarise their own comments? Not very. Is there a point to her doing this, other than to say, "See? My hands are clean!"

And then there's this:

Nerwen says the [I]possibilities for wolf are Loslote, Roa, or Inzil

No, I didn't. I said this:

Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view):

Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed.

In other words, I was merely stating the obvious– "It's either one of the players who are getting attention, or it isn't".

Nerwen double checks that Loslote is now lynched.

Now, I noted in my next-to-last post yesterDay that my connection had started playing up shortly before DL. At that point I had only just been able to get back on, and I wasn't sure what had happened.

The way Roa describes what I did is, to my mind, very much an example of the use of weasel-words. Can you read that line without getting the impression of Evil!Nerwen making sure her fiendish plot had succeeded, nyeh-heh-heh-heh-heh?

I haven't checked what she said other players said against what they actually did say, but just judging from what she said about me, she's doing some serious twisting there. No wonder she didn't see anything wrong with Lottie's analysis.

I still think this is zealotry rather than wolvery, but it's getting to me.

EDIT:X'd since Inzil.

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 06:21 PM

Back home from work. Really, Nerwen?

I summarized my own posts because I was summarizing every post that mentioned Loslote. Leaving my own out would have been suspicious as well, so I don't know what you expect.

As for twisting your words, no, I was merely summarizing to the best of my ability. You did suggest that Loslote could be a wolf. You did double check that Loslote had been lynched and I made no mention of your purpose behind this. You'll note in my conclusion on you, I didn't even mention it. What I saw was the same situation as Nienna- you went along with the suspicion until the end, when you decided to add Lari to the list.

Now, since the dreamer has declared Lari a wolf, and the last wolf is probably Wilwa, I obviously don't suspect you. But you can't possibly think I'm evil just because I suspect you.

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 06:26 PM

Oh, and

++Lari

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 06:27 PM

But you can't possibly think I'm evil just because I suspect you.

I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating.

Anyway–

++Lari.

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 06:31 PM

++ Lari

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 06:36 PM

It seems toDay is shaping up to be rather uneventful. I wonder if we all vote quickly would McCaber end the Day early?

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 06:37 PM

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 06:38 PM

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 06:40 PM

I agree Wilwa is probably the last wolf, but just in case she doesn't sprout fur when we lynch her, we may as well formulate our ideas on other people.

For instance, can we take Brinn to be a known innocent, based on Lari's slip?

EDIT:X'd with Roa; typos.

What slip?

I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating.

Ah well, get in line then. It starts behind Nogrod and extends quite a ways. :D

Hakon

10-19-2009, 06:46 PM

It seems toDay is shaping up to be rather uneventful. I wonder if we all vote quickly would McCaber end the Day early?

I hope he does end the day early. Maybe he can shorten the night phase to be only 3 hours.

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 06:50 PM

Refresh my memory: which slip would that be?

What slip?

Only one of a number of things I found suspicious in her last post yesterDay. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=613706&postcount=387)

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 06:54 PM

She says she thinks Brinn is innocent.

A. How is that a slip?

B. How would that exonerate Brinn?

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 07:48 PM

She says she thinks Brinn is innocent.

A. How is that a slip?

B. How would that exonerate Brinn?

Yes, she said "Brinn's response to Lottie seems rather innocent". But then in the next paragraph, she talks as though she knew her role for certain:

I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn

It could be a shorthand for, "I'm regarding her as innocent for now", of course, but to me it looks like a slip.

wilwarin538

10-19-2009, 08:14 PM

K, I know you guys are all pretty convinced of my guilt but please, just think about this for a second.

If I had kept my mouth shut on Day 2 Hakon would have died that night and Pitch the following. And we would have gotten nothing, since Pitch dreamt of Greenie that Night. BUT since I pretended to be the Ranger I got us 2 more dreams (one of which is a wolf, which is lovely).

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

But whatever. We're lynching Lari today so I know I've got one more Day to try and convince you, I just hope tomorrow you don't waste your time with me.

Gotta sleep now. I'll be around in the morning. And might as well vote now aswell:

++Lari

Hakon

10-19-2009, 08:34 PM

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Nerwen

10-19-2009, 08:35 PM

K, I know you guys are all pretty convinced of my guilt but please, just think about this for a second.

If I had kept my mouth shut on Day 2 Hakon would have died that night and Pitch the following. And we would have gotten nothing, since Pitch dreamt of Greenie that Night. BUT since I pretended to be the Ranger I got us 2 more dreams (one of which is a wolf, which is lovely).

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

Wilwa, I am indeed puzzled by why a wolf-you would have acted as you did... but then I'm puzzled by why an innocent you would either.

This–

#168.
But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today.

does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

I am, however, looking at the unknowns, just in case when we lynch you you turn out to be innocent after all. I say "when" advisedly, because– well, honestly, Wilwa, we pretty much have to lynch you. We'd be mad to leave the single most suspicious person in the village alive, when there's no longer a chance you're the Ranger.

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

Inziladun

10-19-2009, 09:01 PM

Roa_Aoife

10-19-2009, 09:16 PM

I have never seen a rule against the Ranger protecting himself. I can recall from several games in the past where the ranger did just that, usually because they didn't know who to protect. Unless there is a specific rule from the mod, it's allowed. It is generally looked down upon as being more helping yourself than helping the village, but there is no rule against it.

Brinniel

10-19-2009, 10:12 PM

++Lari

I realised I totally let her slip under my radar and have ignored her the entire game. And I don't think that's the first time it's happened. Lari has been a bit of a submarine, but next time I really shouldn't let her just slip by.

With the whole wilwa deal, I can see it going either way. Ordos have done crazy things before and if she thought it would help the village out in the long run, I can see her doing it. On the other hand, backing off from a false claim in this manner is the perfect ploy for a wolf, especially a desperate one. The fact that she anti-revealed shortly after Pitch indicated that he dreamt a wolf makes her look more suspicious as a baddie who freaked out. If she were innocent, then there would be no reason to suddenly retract the reveal since if a wolf was dreamt of, obviously it wasn't her or Hakon so neither would be lynched toDay at least. The only thing I'm wondering is why a wolf would counter-reveal like she did, especially after losing a mate on Day One. I don't think wilwa was in the spotlight at all and neither was Lari. Maybe she was assuming the ranger could protect himself? I don't know, it just seems like such a risky move to make so early on with little reason.

There's really no way to know whether wilwa speaks the truth (unless Pitch dreams her toNight and is somehow still alive the next Day). Which means we have no choice but to lynch her. I think there's a good chance she's a wolf, but if she's not, with two wolves down we can afford that loss toMorrow.

ToDay has been an easy one, but we shouldn't just assume wilwa is our last wolf and slack off. I do think we should lynch her toMorrow, but we should also spend the rest of toDay and toMorrow looking at other players in case we end up being wrong.

So right now...

Known Innocents:
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Hakon
Cray

Known Baddie:
Lari

Unknown:
Inziladun
wilwa
Roa
Nerwen
Legate
Morsul*

*I'm still leaving him as unknown on the off-chance that he isn't the agent. I'm at least fairly confident he isn't a wolf due to his disappearance. At this point, it really does look like he just gave up. As for Cray, I'll keep him as a known innocent since no one's contested his hunter claim.

Anyway, I don't think I'll contribute much tonight since it's late and considering I overslept today, I really do need to head to bed soon. But I'll try to be more productive toMorrow.

McCaber

10-19-2009, 10:28 PM

McCaber, can the Priest protect xerself?
The priest can protect anyone in the village, up to and including their own person.

(Sorry I was late. The stars weren't quite right yet. And Lottie's narration is almost done, I promise.)

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 12:00 AM

Eh known wolf time!

:D

Oh and I love the irony of how I'm talking about the wolf/human transformation in Bisclavret (http://hellhorror.com/werewolves/bisclavret/). Oh Marie de France how your irony makes it even into the present day to effect people's lives. Now isn't that ironic? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v9yUVgrmPY)

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 12:01 AM

Today, I was working at a nursery and all the babies were crying. There was a little baby piano in the room and I started playing nursery rhymes, but the kids didn't stop crying. Then I started playing Lord of the Rings. Every single kid stopped crying. MLIA

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 12:09 AM

Today my boyfriend of three years proposed to me. He said he didn't know what kind of ring to get me, so he got one that nobody else would have. I'm the proud owner of the One Ring from Lord of the Rings. I knew I picked the right guy. MLIA

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 12:31 AM

I apologize for not having the musical ability of Sally.

Today, I went up to my English teacher's desk to tell her I didn't have my homework but would have it tomorrow. In front of me a girl was explaining she didn't do hers because she stayed up late reading Twilight. My teacher wasn't amused. I told her I didn't do my homework because I stayed up late reading Lord of the Rings. She said I could still turn it in tomorrow for full credit. MLIA.

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 12:36 AM

SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM

The other day, while in english class my teacher started reading an example college esay only to realize three sentence in it was about a werewolf...so he kept reading. BEST. TEACHER. EVER.

++Hakon

BECAUSE I CAN!

Lariren Shadow

10-20-2009, 01:29 AM

And some Lovecraft quotes:

But are not the dreams of poets and the tales of travellers notoriously false?

In London there is a man who screams when the church bells ring.

But more wonderful than the lore of old men and the lore of books is the secret lore of ocean.

Very sleek and fat did the cats appear, and sonorous with purring content.

Morsul the Dark

10-20-2009, 04:35 AM

Jus wante to say I'm back! Sorry about all that unexpected problems with the internet been chewing my nails off wondering about WW ALOT of catching up o do and Congrats to Lari:D

EDIT:Spelling

Morsul the Dark

10-20-2009, 04:42 AM

Well then I Could try to fight back Lari Suspicion but as we know that's impossible now So

++Lari

again sorry I diappeared Our internet is by usage and we went over because of an unexpected download so to avoid extra charges...

Nerwen

10-20-2009, 05:04 AM

Lari on the unknown players (Day 1)
Together with a selection of things people said about her

#10.
I do agree with Wilwa about possibly being optimistic and that maybe we can get a wolf on Day 1!
That's just opening banter.

#70.
Replying to The Saucepan Wolf.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man
On a more serious note, I am expecting everyone to play their full part toDay (and, indeed, every Day). When it comes to voting, we won’t have a lot to go on. But we’ll have even less if people don’t speak up, play their part, make their opinions known. I hereby give warning that I shall not take kindly to those who seek to hide in the quiet shadows of the thread.

This strikes me. I know in context it could be "play our parts as good villagers and find the wolves" but at the same time I took it as a sort of signal. Like the Agent to his wolves.
Classic suspect-your-mate-of-cobblery move.

Then she makes a list.
#71

Inzil: Doesn't set off any alarms.

Pitchwife: Seems innocent to me.

Loslote: Not newbie right? Interesting comment about distracting narratives...maybe sniffing out wolves? Or not. Needs watching.

Hakon: The comment about SPM, now that I realize taken in with his, could be signaling to each other. Not good. Don't have a good feeling about him at all.

Wilwa: She has good points and is optimistic, we should keep her around.

Nog: Seems like typical Nog. I have no idea if that means he's innocent or guilty.

SPM: Needs watching. I find him suspicious for reasons in my last post. Not saying should go after toDay, but he does deserve watching.

Roa: Seems pretty innocent.

Crayon: Newbie. Newbie pass.

Nienna: Pretty innocent looking.

Nerwen: No read.

Legate: Not setting off any alarms.

Greenie: Interesting things to say, not suspicious.

Morsul: Newbie to werewolf? Gets newbie pass.

Kitanna: Nothing much at all.

Brinn: Thinks everyone is a wolf. Paranoid, needs watching.

So, these are the people she had a definite opinion about:

Pitchwife (Seer). Positive.
Loslote (ordo). Mildly negative.
Hakon (Ranger). Negative.
Wilwa (unknown). Highly positive.
SPM (werewolf). Mildly negative.
Roa (unknown). Mildly positive.
Brinn (unknown). Negative.

Meh... looks like the usual carefully-spread "suspicions'. The comment on Wilwa is interesting, though (see Nogrod's take below)

#72
As for Lari, I actually don't see anything suspicious about her, and seems actually quite good to me (even with that SpM comment, which is something I can see as reasonable, not saying that I agree with it, but I can see an innocent posting that).

#74.
Somehow the way how Lari makes her comment on wilwa strikes me: It may be that she just wished to express herself differently (there are many of whom she says only "seems innocent" or "pretty innocent looking" etc.). But of wilwa she says that we should keep her around with actual backing / arguments for why she thinks so. And I think there had been some suspicions raised on wilwa, so that would fit "nicely" :p ... [He reiterates this point at #88.]

#79
I am currently wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen

We now know The Saucepan Wolf mentioned one known wolf in there, and (from my point of view) two known innocents. Would he have thrown a second wolf (i.e. Zil) into the mix?

[Replying to Nogrod at #74]
I really only meant to change up what I was saying. I did my list from the bottom up, got tired of saying "seems innocent" and decided to go with a different spin.

#114.
I'm...slightly weary of Pitch's reveal. While he probably was in fear of getting lynched if we still had the tie between the two votes Inzil would be gone. It just doesn't feel that right to me.

Blah, I'm up early and hungry.

Considering I was thinking of voting SPM toDay anyway I might. But I was also thinking of voting Hakon.
At this point she is trying to cast suspicion on Inzil, but I don't think it look like wolf-on-wolf– her aim here is to cast doubt on Pitch.

She then votes The Saucepan Wolf.

So, for Day One, it looks like the living player most likely to be Lari's fellow is– what a surprise!– Wilwa.

I will note that Legate was positive about Lari, however.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.