WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

When will it be the right Day for that?

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

I noticed you've completely not responded to the rest of the post, but chose only to point out one of the few assumptions I'm making about the reveal.

I was mostly referring to sally, the reason I threw you in there because you came right after (and I crossed with wilwa who of course expressed doubts about it all :rolleyes: ). As I said though, there is a difference between stating doubt about someone's reveal and going through great lengths to try to discredit it based on shoddy reasons.

If someone says I'm the secret role, this is what it is, and these are the details, I can still understand doubting it, but to make an exaggerated effort to try to discredit the person is not only taking it too far, but just useless. The way I see it, we have another weapon that's being offered and we'd be idiots to not take the chance.

Doub it all you want, it makes no difference to me, but if someone says "I can get a dream tonight, don't kill me," I'm going to listen. This might be a terrible example to use, but if I was in Lottie's shoes based on the previous day and I said it (while disclosing specific details), I'm sure I'd have my doubters, but I will bet my apartment building no one would go through such a large extent to discredit me.


Two? For a moment I thought it was my turn to show my ignorance... But then I checked it...

What are you up to Boro?


Nothing sinister, had a Roa-moment it appears. I could have sworn Day 1 there were people talking about 2 secret roles. Well now that changes my sally-analysis don't it.

[Pitchwife]

Back and reading.

[Nerwen]

When will it be the right Day for that? :rolleyes:

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

I don't what to think about Lottie. As Boro said, it would be pretty rash of the wolves to pull a false reveal at this point. However, if Lottie's a wolf it would be her first time, and it's possible she panicked or something. She's done a number of things that don't look too innocent... but then it would be her first time as a gifted too, I think... arrrgh...

Nothing sinister, had a Roa-moment it appears. I could have sworn Day 1 there were people talking about 2 secret roles. Well now that changes my sally-analysis don't it.

And there I was waiting for you to reveal as... the extra secret role. More secret than secret!

[Nerwen]

Well, then, I can't leave this any later– for once it's hard to decide not because no-one looks really suspicious but because so many people do.

++Nienna

Voting record and general feeling of not-rightness. Sorry, but I'm too tired to put that any better.

Good night and good luck.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I will vote in about 30-40 minutes. I'll probably be back before deadline but I'm not certain so I'm just making sure I get a vote.

I'd rather not vote Nienna, because of the aforementioned slight on her honour. ;) But she is still one of my top 4.

Shasta hasn't really been around. Laying low, eh? :p

Wilwa and Sally have done little to calm my suspicions of them, so likely one of them.

[A Little Green]

I'm here and caught up, and for once I have so much stuff to say I don't know where to start! :D I'll probably formulate some ambitiously huge list or something. Beware! *dashes off*

[satansaloser2005]

Here to catch up, but won't be able to say too much alas as mentioned. *dashes*

[Brinniel]

What I can say is this - Brinniel could be a wolf (not discounting her D1 connection to Nerwen) trying to save a Niennawolf with that next-to-most-recent post of hers. She brings up valid points, but it's almost with a "I'm not sure it's a good idea, but you guys do what you wanna do" attitude.
If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna. :p

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.

Well, Brinn, Werewolf can be a simple game. I have reasons for finding the Mnemo voters probably innocent, for now at least. After a few days we can examine more theories but for now, when we still have so many people alive in this expedition, I'm not going to complicate things.

We all have different ways in how we play, so I accept that. I understand why you'd find those who voted to save Mnemo and I don't see leaving the Mnemo voters alone for toDay as a problem...I just don't want to see them fall under the radar or continue to be disregarded later on, because if we did that, we could easily be handing the victory to the wolves.

How do the wolves set up her if she herself makes the votes? Or how do they do that because "plenty of innocents have been lynched that way"?

I don't think Nienna is "automatically guilty" or assume that those voting for Mnemo are obviously innocent. And I'm not sure anyone does that (I see Eomer cleared that up already...). So why do you Brinn wish to make it look like people thought like that?

Yes, Nienna's votes are her own errors, but if she's innocent, I could easily imagine the wolves at Night saying something like, "Pity we lost Mnemo, but look at Nienna's vote record; she could easily be set up for toMorrow's lynch, and with little help from us." The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.

And besides, keep this in mind. Who's to say that the secret role isn't a modified wolf?
I doubt that the role is a modified wolf since I agree with Boro that it wouldn't be a separate role, but an extension of a current wolf role. But it's possible the secret role is a cobbler. Or perhaps a cursed...though I think that's less likely.

[wilwarin538]

So I did yet another quick skim through of yesterDay and I think I'm going to go with Nienna today, her vote Day 1 was for Inzil, which could be seen as an attempt to protect Mnemo, when she was actually suspicious of Lommy (but she said she didn't want her vote to be a throwaway). Day 2 she did vote Lommy, and I see it either as a throw-away (which is weird cause she tried to avoid that the Day before) or I see it as an attempt to protect Mnemo, without looking like she was trying to protect Mnemo (it's a bit of a stretch, but not impossible). Either way it doesn't look good to me. I'm not positive about her, but she's the one I now feel strongest about. Since I have to go to school and then work, I need to vote now, I will not be back:

++Nienna

Good luck!


x'ed with Brinn

[Boromir88]

Got a few more people to go as far as all interactions with Mnemo, gah, wish I could have completed this sooner, because I'm really not understanding these votes people are casting on eachother. Plus having to reformulate my sally-lysis slowed me down. I'll put hers up now, because I feel bad about that type of mistake. I told you I had a little more spunk today, and sometimes I get carried away with myself starting to imagine things in my head that just aren't there.

Basically I spotted sally's pun reference about Finding (M)nemo, thought that was a cobbler-signal to a wolf. They have this strange interaction and then sally tries to distance herself at the end because she's a special cobbler who can be more useful than just random confusion.

However, since I was imagining this glorified cobbler role, her distancing from Mnemo I think makes her look better. The fact that she stepped back and questioned Mnemo's (and now since I can safely assume there is no glorified cobbler) motives makes sally look better. I still think she's suspicious, but can't vote based on wanting to have some fun with someone she knows personally. Although, I will say I do not like the manner in which you try to discredit Lottie, but that's a separate matter.

wilwa and Shasta look far worse. You may be backing off from me wilwa, but your suspicions of me making you uneasy just looks sinister. Plus your last post where you tell Nog a nice catch, I'm imagining a touch of wishing that I will wind up lynched before you do. Heed this, you want to tango with me, let's go, but I warn you I'm terrible at the tango, so if I happen to go before you, I will make sure you leave with at least broken ankles. Yes, that is a threat and a dare. :p

Come on, too many people look suspicious to you Nerwen? You could have at least picked one of them, instead of yourself! :rolleyes:

Edit: crossed with Brinn and wilwa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++SALLY

See my post #436, which Sally didn't really answer. I think she was very slippery in explaining how she didn't mind Mnemo dying - you only didn't mind when Mnemo had reached 5 votes. Until then you hadn't mentioned Mnemo and tried to get others lynched instead.

Nienna is also a good choice for the noose.

Maybe see you later.

[Bes]

As usual, I don't have much time today. I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.

++Lottie

Probably crossed with a few people again, I know I crossed with Eomer for certain (e-mail updates, whoo!)

[Pitchwife]

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

[A Little Green]

COMFORTABLE WITH:

Boro - I still feel good about him, though his vote record looks a bit flimsy. Actually the thing that worries me about him is that everyone seems to consider him more or less innocentish. Overall I don't find him suspicious. (The flip-flopping goes in the family. :rolleyes: )

Loslote - On the subject of her reveal: I'm inclined to believe her for now, or at least check what she says toMorrow. Unlike some, I don't find it weird in the least that she should reveal now if she really has a role like that and is not returning toDay. I find it logical - she's basically making sure (or trying to) that she'll have her dream: she told us not to lynch her and has the ranger protect her at Night.

Morsul - I'm inclined to think him innocent. I understand his self-vote even though I don't much like it.

Macalaure - He feels fine.

Thinlómien - Leaning good. Like Boro, I frowned a bit over her Day 1 "I'd like to vote Mnemo, but then it would be bandwaggoning" -argument (voting someone without wanting them to get lynched is kind of controversial), and I can't shake off the thought she might be an opportunistic wolf. Overall, though, there are many others who look worse than she does. I debated with myself whether to put her here or in the next category.

Nerwen - I feel fairly good about her.


NO IDEA OR IN BETWEEN:

Brinn - Aaaaargh. I'll put her down as super confusing. She's giving me "very innocent" and "rather bad" -signals at once!

Nienna - Contrary to many, I don't find Nienna that suspicious. She's so sneaky and careful as a wolf that to vote twice to save a fellow would sound quite unlike her wolf-self. (Wolf-self. Hehe. Love that word.) I'll put her here, though, because I don't have a strong or even semi-strong feeling for her innocence, either.

Nogrod - Eurgh. Really really don't know - it's ironic, actually: early on, I concentrated too much on him and he was almost the only one I had stuff to say about, and now I have nothing on him whatsoever. Confusing.

Bes - No idea whatsoever.

wilwa - Eurgh I don't know about her either.


WARY OF (I could put everyone here, I guess...):

Eomer - I think his votes could have been wolf-on-wolf, schemed to make him look good: on Day 1 he gives Mnemo her second vote, breaking a huge tie of many people with one vote and putting her on the lead (a risky but not decisive vote); on Day 2 he votes Mnemo again, but since his vote was the 7th it really made no difference. I don't remember ever playing with an Eomerwolf, so I don't know if he's usually a bold one or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was.

Pitchwife - Another aaaaargh. I'm starting to distrust his "Mr. Agreeable" manner (sorry Pitch, it's just such a funny name! :D), and I'm not convinced that Mnemo's wolvery clears him. Mnemo's comments on Pitch feeling "off" and even considering voting him on Day 1 could be safe wolf-on-wolf suspicion, easy to call off the next Day as "Day 1 suspicions", yet leaving an impression on having suspected the person. Don't know if Mnemo's Day 2 case on Pitch is too bold to be wolf-on-wolf (I accidentally typed wolf-on-eww!), then again, I don't think Pitch was that suspected on that Day, and it might have been even that Mnemo guessed she'd get lynched and decided to make a fellow look good in passing...

sally - Her votes look pretty bad, and I find the tone of this post quite sinister:Or maybe Mnemo was trying to set me up. You missed that one too. *rolls eyes* Boro, darling, you know better than this. If you're grasping at straws this much I'm going to have to start suspecting you.

Also....

"You think you'll trick me into giving something away. It won't work." Because there's no guilt in my little body. So move on and try to trap someone else.I'm confused about her banter with Mnemo yesterDay. Still, I have a nagging feeling that she's too easy a catch, somehow - that the real wolves are others than her.

Shasta - His vote record looks very bad. He could be a sneaky wolf. And I don't like the tone of the following quote. At all.Well, Mnemo fooled me. :(Leaning wolf.

--

I'm now speculating about a pack consisting of Mnemo, Eomer, Pitchwife and Shasta. I'd love to investigate but right now other matters demand my attention... I'm too lazy to preview so this post will probably swarm with typos and grammatical errors but really, who cares.


EDIT: x-ed with a host.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm now speculating about a pack consisting of Mnemo, Eomer, Pitchwife and Shasta. I'd love to investigate but right now other matters demand my attention... I'm too lazy to preview so this post will probably swarm with typos and grammatical errors but really, who cares.


EDIT: x-ed with a host.

I'm agreeing with about 3/4 of this. Surprisingly, while I think Lottie looks guiltier than sin, Boro looks far too eager to lynch the innocent me and Eomer is more than happy to help him. I'd bet my lunch (a tasty sandwich) that one of them is a wolf. And if nothing else I know we would learn something from Shasta's death, as so much of him concerns me and I'd like to see the rest of the method behind his madness.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and I love that I'm agreeing (mostly) with Nog but I must remind myself that being agreeable/disagreeable does not indicate innocence/guilt. We all have to keep that in mind, in fact. I'm just sayin'.

*dashes off again for a moment*

[Pitchwife]

Following what I've just said, Bes's vote right now looks more than suspicious. I mean, even if you doubt her reveal was well-reasoned, there's that other argument against her being a wolf. And who would want to get a potential Seer out of the way before they can have a dream?
I also don't get this:
If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.
OK, the Ranger could, so to speak, 'waste' a protection on her toNight while the wolves kill somebody else, but why would that prevent the Ranger from protecting a hypothetical 'real seer' if such comes out later? Not mentioning that Ranger can't defend anybody against a lynch, only Night-kills.
Or do you mean her reveal could be an attempt to make the Ranger reveal as well, so the wolves can kill them? I don't see how - if the Ranger has any sense, they'll know to stay hidden. This looks totally fabricated.

[satansaloser2005]

I'll agree with Pitch. There's no reason the ranger would reveal right now (unless of course they were waggoned on) because there's no false ranger reveal. So there's no reasoning as such behind Lottie revealing in order to catch the ranger. A potential seer, yes, but not the ranger. The question is, is Bes making this argument because he's evil (in which case I think Lottie would be innocent) or because he's just the new kid on the block? I've no idea, but the entire affair smells to me, no matter which party/parties may be evil.

[Boromir88]

Mac

Day 1-
#27 Mnemo does a wonderful job at a Form impression and hating Day 1s
#57 Mnemo ignored the reasonable debate of uselessness
#112 Mnemo seems innocent
#139 wants to avoid voting Mnemo
#161 prefers Inzil over Mnemo, and does vote Inzil.
Day 2-
#190 Mnemo has vague reasons for voting Inzil
#217 several good points have been made against Mnemo
#248 suspects Mnemo and asks Nog if his # of suspects is enough for him
#257 Mac's analysis on Mnemo, if Nog's guilty Mnemo would look suspicious.
#260 lists Mnemo is suspicious
#313 Mnemo's defending of Nog is suspicious
#386 Mnemo sounds like an ok choice
#390 votes Mnemo (4/7) and puts her in the lead by 2
#411 Mnemo's role would reveal more than Lottie's

Of Mnemo voters, Mac looks more like wolf-on-wolf than the others. The placement of his vote would be brilliant too. With Mnemo being under suspicion from Day 1, I think a wolf pointing suspicion towards her on Day 2 is a likely scenario, that's not just some cracked conspiracy theory. Also, notice that while he does consistently point towards Mnemo being suspicious he tries to nudge the suspicion more towards Nogrod. It's not "If Mnemo is guilty than there's a chance Nog is," it's "If Nog is guilty, this looks bad for Mnemo." That could just be because Nog honestly was his primary suspect, which I could understand seeing how Nog's case about the number of people Mac was suspecting was faulty.

I'm considerably less confident about Mac today, but not going to vote on him for that type of weak speculation. And if he is a wolf, it is pristine and stunning wolf-play, which Mac is fully capable of doing, but can he go the distance? :p

Nog
Day 1-
#158 doesn't find Mnemo suspicious, but he has been unclear about her since the latter part of the day.
Day 2-
#207 doesn't like Mnemo's vote and the whole coin-flip
#233 repeats reasons from #207
#356 Mnemo has made 2 odd votes now
#372 repeats reasons from #356
#405 agrees with Mac that Mnemo's wierdness looks more evil than Lotties
#413 votes Mnemo (6/7)
-Then in another post, agrees with Mac that Mnemo's death would reveal more

It's good to see Nog repeating himself...:p, but in a seriousness the vote the vote placement could be another wolf-on-wolf, but on my own feelings Nog looks better than Mac now. Yes he repeats his reasons against Mnemo a few times (is that a good sign? Not sure) but I like the details he uses plus bringing some new stuff to the table on Mnemo like in posts 207 and 356.

We've clearly disagreed about Lottie, but Nog tends to be more of the conspiracy theorist, and I detect nothing sinister in his doubts on Lottie's reveal.

By th way, I realized I had more of these to go than I thought...forgot about Morsul, Brinn, and Pitch. I feel like I would just be repeating myself, on feeling generally good about them. I've got to go grab some food, I'll be back to read all that's taken place and then vote.

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

Yes, you've said some things others have, but I'm going to tell you, that you're actually not being agreeable in this post. You might have some reservations about the reveal, and are repeating a few things, but you've added a new perspective that hasn't been mentioned. That is, supposedly Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

Perhaps someone will speculate that it's possible Lottie's a wolf too, who got into trouble, therefor this is her attempt to get out of a lynch. But you can imagine all the assumptions one has to make to dream this scenario, while ignoring all the other facts about what makes sense in Lottie's reveal. Plus, if anyone tries to say they were saving Mnemo because she was making more sense than Lottie, than I will definitely beg to differ on that point!

Edit: crossed with whoever posted since Pitch's post I respond too

[satansaloser2005]

We could lynch Nog. It'd certainly make his special day all that more memorable.:smokin:


Yes, I'm kidding.

*goes off to re-read the thread*


EDIT: x'd with Boro

[Pitchwife]

I'm starting to distrust his "Mr. Agreeable" manner (sorry Pitch, it's just such a funny name! )
You know what, I'll consider this as a potential personal title if I become eligible some day.:)
(And I realize I sort of asked for this on Day 1. The bed that you make, etc.)

[Macalaure]

I have no reason to doubt Lottie's reveal. If she was a wolf, then the fact that she revealed right away points toward it being a planned night plot, and not born out of sincere fear of being lynched. (Although she did have to vote early, so a certain fear is understandable.) She was second in line yesterday, but it is not uncommon at all that when a wolf is lynched, the second in line is let off the hook, at least for a day or two. To the wolves, there would have been every reason to be optimistic about Lottie's survival today, at the very least enough to wait and see how the day goes, so this plot is highly improbable.

Apart from that, her tone just doesn't sound like it's a false reveal. It's pretty much embedded in between several posts of analysis, and without the bolding part, you might even easily overlook the post. A wolf would have made more noise.

There are possible scenarios under which a Lottie-wolf would be plausible, but we will get there soon enough. Let her have her dream and then we'll see. It's not like there aren't enough wolves left.

Don't confuse the ranger now, folks. If Lottie is a wolf, the wolves have one night in which they needn't worry about him, if she is the seer, he will enable her to her dream. If that's not worth the risk, then I don't know.


A lot of comments and ideas I wrote down while reading:

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.
Since Inzil is dead, two out of Brinn, Morsul, and Sally are wolves. Possible, but quite a bold statement.

The one thing that makes me shy away from suspecting Nienna and Shasta too much, is that a) her votes yesterDay are sketchy, but not conclusively evil, and b) if they wanted to save Mnemo, why did they go for Inzil and not me? Both only really makes evil sense if Lottie and I are wolves, too, the latter of which I know is not the case and the former of which I highly doubt.

I had forgotten about Mnemo's "Roa and Nog are both innocent". Makes Nog look a bit worse.

Brinn's posts toDay make sense. I'm less suspicious of her now.

Boro makes so much sense, it's gotta hurt. ;) I like his case against Wilwa.

Your opinion's got a pretty wide range there doesn't it, Mac?
Umm, yes? That's what I stated. That's what's been confusing me.

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Mac, do you see a pattern: almost anyone who votes you or suspects you is suspicious to you? You should know better...
Haven't paid attention to that. I believe I'm usually quite objective about people who disagree with me. It's the people who agree with me that I fall for. Anyway, hasn't anything to do with that. My thoughts are already muddled enough right now.

And the Ranger thing isn't guaranteed, what if the Ranger protected Lottie last Night, or we lynch the Ranger today by accident?
I'd say it's very unlikely the ranger protected Lottie last night. We can't lynch the ranger by accident unless we lynch someone who isn't available at the deadline. The ranger will reveal and the wolves have no choice but to kill him, since he will still protect Lottie.

Wilwa and Sally are sounding all the alarms at the moment. Problem: if I throw in Nogrod, my next best suspect, this is the list of people who have been doubting Lottie most, and there is no way all three wolves would go that way. One single dream just isn't that dangerous.

The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.
Sometimes they don't even need to do that. ;)

Secret role = modified wolf? Five wolves in a village of 20 with 2 innocent dropouts? Nonsense. *shakes head*

One tip for Lottie. It's not always the best idea to pick your best suspect to dream of, especially since Bes didn't have a whole lot of interaction with other villagers. A villager that's involved in the discussion is more valuable, since his/her role will shine a light on other people's roles, too - and in both cases, guilt and innocence. A guilty Bes (just keeping him as an example) is a wolf down, which is good, but an innocent Bes doesn't give us that much, since we can't deduce much from it.
(Oh noes! He's trying to dissuade her from Bes. Bes and he must be wolves! ;) )

A lot of early votes toDay. Few of them to my liking.

edit: crossed with a few, and I have to correct myself: Boro does not make that much sense. He suspects me! Bad Boro!

[Boromir88]

I forgot too that I got Nienna-Mnemo done, but I don't think anything's changed since my earlier response to Nienna.

To make it quick, I'll just say if Nienna seriously wanted to save Mnemo she could have tied the vote with Lottie, instead of throwing away a vote on Lommy. Maybe, she realized she painted herself into a corner, by declaring she's most suspicious of Lommy, therefor a vote on Lottie would look like a clear attempt to save Mnemo. That is indeed suspicious.

But there are other factors that need consideration I think before Nienna is lynched.

On Day 1 she repeats defenses against Mnemo, and even states she prefers Zil of Mnemo. To my knowledge Mac did this too, would Nienna wolf take that risk? I honestly can't say. However, has anyone looked into reasons Inzil was killed? I don't think it has, and I honestly can't do it, so hopefully someone else can...Greenie? Pitch?

It could be a set up to point suspicion towards Mac or Nienna, most notably Nienna who also defended Mnemo. That's just a quick last minute thought, and I think there are still too many questions surrounding Nienna's possible wolvery to vote for her today.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

[Boromir88]

I'm agreeing with about 3/4 of this. Surprisingly, while I think Lottie looks guiltier than sin, Boro looks far too eager to lynch the innocent me and Eomer is more than happy to help him. I'd bet my lunch (a tasty sandwich) that one of them is a wolf. And if nothing else I know we would learn something from Shasta's death, as so much of him concerns me and I'd like to see the rest of the method behind his madness.

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" :rolleyes:), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer. :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" :rolleyes:), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.



Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer. :rolleyes:

Not quite, no. And all is forgiven, precious. However, I still need to analyze you just to be on the safe side.

Here's my problem. I simply don't have time to write up an analysis post toDay but I need to analyze a bunch of people. So here in a bit I'm going to put up a list of how I feel on everyone, and if you have a specific question I'll try to answer it, but unfortunately I don't have enough time to shoot through everyone I want to.

*dashes off*

Back hopefully soon and with a good post. :)

[Macalaure]

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today.You have my sword. :)

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

You have my sword. :)

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

Thanks. It's my own fault, really, as I fell asleep and didn't say anything so it looked like I'd done it all post-reveal, but I wanted to make sure you guys knew what had really gone on. We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.

Now, to analysis. Well, sparknotes, but still. ;)

[satansaloser2005]

So I did yet another quick skim through of yesterDay and I think I'm going to go with Nienna today, her vote Day 1 was for Inzil, which could be seen as an attempt to protect Mnemo, when she was actually suspicious of Lommy (but she said she didn't want her vote to be a throwaway). Day 2 she did vote Lommy, and I see it either as a throw-away (which is weird cause she tried to avoid that the Day before) or I see it as an attempt to protect Mnemo, without looking like she was trying to protect Mnemo (it's a bit of a stretch, but not impossible). Either way it doesn't look good to me. I'm not positive about her, but she's the one I now feel strongest about. Since I have to go to school and then work, I need to vote now, I will not be back:

++Nienna

Good luck!


x'ed with Brinn

She's got a point here, but I'm not exactly happy with Wilwa in general, so while she does make a very good point about Nienna I don't trust her. (I quoted this post because....well, I can. No, really though, I don't think she and Nienna would be wolves together in this situation. I know Wilwa's sneaky but I don't think she'd do this to a packmate without darn good reason.)


On the other hand, she's not going to be here for the rest of the Day so it's possible she could be a secret role (or another gifted, though that's unlikely). However, I wouldn't feel entirely bad about lynching her as I think she's looking very off. (Again, sorry I couldn't explain more. I wish I had time!)

So to sparknotes my sparknotes I'd say yes to lynching Wilwa, but only if she's the best option available. I'm going to see who else looks bad to me in a second.

[Pitchwife]

Reasons for Zil being killed? Well, it's somewhat puzzling. For some reasons, he always seems to attract at least some suspicion, whatever his role, so you might suppose he'd be exactly the type of person the wolves would want to keep around for a while. Unless they hoped he might be Gifted under his supposed suspiciousness?
He was part of yesterDay's Lottie-wagon, but since he was Mnemo's prime 'suspect' after myself, it would have seemed unlikely he voted to save Mnemo (if he'd survived, I mean), so it wouldn't have been that easy for the wolves to get him lynched, if they'd wanted to.
There's also the possibility of a set-up, as you (Boro) mentioned.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, and will be back with a better post, but for now, two things.

1. Re - Mac: Clarification - it seemed like you said I voted specifically to save Mnemo Day 1 and not you, which is incorrect - I didn't want to see either of you executed.

2. Re - everyone who thinks my Day 2 vote was suspicious: Query - since when is it suspicious to vote someone you're suspicious of? I feel a bit better about Nerwen after her vote for Nienna, but it could very well be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I won't be comfortable about either one of them until a role is known.

[Macalaure]

Deadline is getting closer and the thread is getting quieter. I guess considering that a lot of the votes are already in, that's not so surprising. It's a bit dissatisfying anyway...

So let's just have a look at them.

Morsul -> Morsul (wonderful...)
Lottie -> Bes (that one came out of nowhere)
(is it going to be standard in this game that the first two votes every day are forgettable? ;) )
Nerwen -> Nienna (sure, with little time to make up your mind, you go for the most obvious suspect)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (sensible vote for a wolf under pressure. Then again, if we find Nienna innocent tomorrow, she'll be in a very tough spot)
Eomer -> Sally (I can understand it, but if the sensible votes are split between Sally and Wilwa, it will end up being Nienna. Of course, Eomer suspected Nienna, too, so he won't mind much)
Bes -> Lottie (aww, come on... :rolleyes: )

[Boromir88]

Back and should be here til DL, or at least the normal DL. So, til 4, don't know if Legate's going to extend it or not...?

And I have to say I have no idea what I'm seeing, because I could have sworn I saw Nerwen vote for herself, which is why I acted so shocked by it. Wow...so let me just change this:

and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me,
to..
However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nienna, Lottie are before me
And let your own imagination wonder why I'm seeing stuff that doesn't exist :rolleyes:

You have my sword. :)

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

I would prefer an axe or a stick of dynamite, so I can take a sample of ice and study how much glacial melt has been going on. But, a sword will do. Who says we can't multi-task on this expedicetion :D

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, the next person who makes an ice pun gets my vote. Seriously.


People, it's just rude to make such jests so close to deadline. I don't appreciate your flippant remarks and overall disregard for the game, especially when I'm trying my best to keep up with actual posts and then have silly ones thrown in my face. I'm getting sick of it.

In short, stop with the expedition/cold weather humor. It's not nice.

And now after that little emotional avalanche I need to chill for a moment.



:Merisu:

[A Little Green]

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

[satansaloser2005]

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

Ahem. Did I say I'd go for Wilwa no matter what? No, I said if she was the best option I'd vote for her. Do your reading, little green one.

....I'm not exactly happy with Wilwa in general, so while she does make a very good point about Nienna I don't trust her. (I quoted this post because....well, I can. No, really though, I don't think she and Nienna would be wolves together in this situation. I know Wilwa's sneaky but I don't think she'd do this to a packmate without darn good reason.)

On the other hand, she's not going to be here for the rest of the Day so it's possible she could be a secret role (or another gifted, though that's unlikely). However, I wouldn't feel entirely bad about lynching her as I think she's looking very off. (Again, sorry I couldn't explain more. I wish I had time!)

So to sparknotes my sparknotes I'd say yes to lynching Wilwa, but only if she's the best option available. I'm going to see who else looks bad to me in a second.

Although thanks for bringing this to my attention; I clearly left out part of my sentence in the second paragraph. The reason I mention her being a possible gifted and being gone is so that, if she is, we remember she won't be around to defend herself. After all, one must be considerate even in Werewolf. ;)

Anyway, back to the lynching board. I might have another look at Shasta.

[Boromir88]

I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.


I'm eery of Eomer too, because of the reasons you've mentioned, it just seems like he's too concentrated on the easiest choices.

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.

And here's another problem, there are so many suspicious looking people, we aren't agreeing on who looks the most suspicious. So, it looks like since someone like Eomer, who looks innocent, but when he doesn't have the same main suspect we do, it looks like he's got a sly and evil intention. However, the fact could be he honestly does believe sally is the most suspicious.

We should try to reach some sort of accord, because if all the innocents spread their votes around, than it makes the wolves pretty much able to pick who they want (assuming they haven't voted yet, but who knows?)

I've made my intentions clear, and the only reason I don't cast my vote now is I want to withold it in case there's any sort of wolf funny business towarsd the end. Any further analysis I do on wilwa is going to be biased, if you think she's not a good choice, convince me otherwise.

[Pitchwife]

Going with the hypothesis of a wolf among the Lottie-voters:
Brinn - I said earlier I found her vote the most innocent, but her semi-defense of Nienna toDay makes me think again (not that I've quite made up my mind about Nienna herself). Yeah, she said she wouldn't do that as a wolf, but wouldn't a wolf say exactly that? Also, her vote was the next after the first for Mnemo.
Morsul - haven't suspected him up to now. His self-vote looks rather innocent; I suppose a wolf would have some idea whom he wanted to die if he had to vote early.
sally - honestly, I hardly ever know what to make of her. Her reaction to Lottie's reveal troubles me, though.

À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.

Mr Agreeable being Mr Undecided...

[Thinlómien]

I don't really have the time to reread stuff I just read and comment on it and since there wasn't really anything THAT important, I think the easiest way to arrange my feelings is this:

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE NOT AMONG
Lommy - obviously.
Greenie - just seems really innocent at this point, very genuine and independent-thinking and smart... if she's fooled me, congrats!
Boro - he just seems like his normal ordo self. Even the bad track record fits... :p (just joking)
Lottie - I think she's telling the truth. Boro had very good points about this.
Pitch - I don't know why, but I'm quite convinced he's an ordo. It's partly the stuff between him and Mnemo, and partly the simple fact he just doesn't give me any bad vibes.
Nerwen - see above. Although, I feel more strongly about her innocence, but she's fooled me quite brilliantly before.
Bes - his Lottie-vote made me raise my eyebrows a bit, but I think it's simply his newbieishness. His argumentation is faulty but sounds innocent.
Morsul - just seems very innocent although self-voting isn't exactly very helpful unless you're a wolf. :p

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE AMONG
Eomer - he's a tricky one for sure. I agree with Greenie that his vote record far from proves his innocence (and I think he's exactly the kind of wolf to do even more shameless wolf-on-wolf stuff). But on the other hand, his new, very blunt manner is very nice and quite innocent-seeming to me. Quite tough.
Sally - I'm agreeing with whoever it was who said she's a sort of obvious target, but then again, no one is an obvious target without a reason. Half of her posts make me scream "GUILTY!" and half are quite ok. It's difficult (again).
Nienna - she really seems very bad to me, and I can't still see why voting me instead of Lottie makes her innocent (I think I explained why it doesn't). I'm only slightly afraid I'm biased because she's suspecting me so aggressively that it doesn't seem innocent (from my perspective).
Mac - he's difficult. Because, I would like to trust him and he makes a lot of sense, but his sort of jumpiness and grumpiness makes me wonder. I think he's also a quite probable wolf-on-wolf voter: he would be able to see when Mnemo's a lost case and use it to his advantage.
Shasta - just seems really bad, his tone is constantly very off to me. Possibly my main suspect. (He made things for himself a lot worse by reappearing because I had sort of half-forgotten about him before but then he came back and posted in this very wolvishly defensive manner...)
Brinn - I don't get why people generally suspect her so little. The few posts she's made toDay seem really false in tone to me, and while she was not trying to save Mnemo, she was definitely not for killing her either. She's been very nice to me all game and somehow I get the feeling that if she was innocent she would've suspected me by now... :rolleyes:
Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)
Nogrod - I don't really suspect him at all at the moment, but I can so well see him fooling me that I'm keeping an eye on him...

I could vote anybody except Nog from the latter cathegory toDay, but my preference would be Shasta or Nienna (or possibly Brinn or Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

Really, I think the whole Lottie reveal situation is snowballing.

EDIT: x'd with Lommie. Is there a particular reason you keep saying "cathegory"?

[Nogrod]

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her... :confused:

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDayI'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.(meaning Lottie-wagon)

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

And anyway, Mac seems to be speaking a lot of sense lately (I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"... so sense... :rolleyes:)

We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.So you know the direction - and are an innocent at the same time? :)

And as bad as it might sound, yes we can afford lynching an innocent with sixteen players of whom only three are wolves (13-3). Let me put it the other way: toDay and toMorrow we can try things... after a few Days we can't afford mistakes. So we are not actualöly in the do or die -situation right now...

The vote by Bes looks really weird and I'm wondering how long should we give him the benefit of "newbie-doubt".

As Greenie said, we're sharing things here and so excuse my brevity (some will no doubt be happy about me not babbling for pages). Back soonish.

[Thinlómien]

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself. :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

EDIT: x'd with Lommie. Is there a particular reason you keep saying "cathegory"?Am I over-using the word or misspelling it or misusing it? :confused::rolleyes:

[Nienna]

I'm here. Wilwa's vote for me looks opportunistic and worries me. I'm still wary of Lommy. I'm starting to get wary of Eomer. So a list:

Definitely Not a Wolf:
Nienna

Probably Not a Wolf:
Greenie
Lottie
Nerwen
Bes
Morsul
Sally
Brinn

Could Go Either Way:
Boro
Pitch
Mac
Shasta
Nogrod

Probably a Wolf:
Lommy
Eomer
Wilwa

Edit: Crossed.

[satansaloser2005]

Am I over-using the word or misspelling it or misusing it?

Well it may be a language thing; here it's spelled 'category'. I didn't know if it was random or it you were somehow trying to be extra-clever.

*pets you*

And Nog, darling, yes I know the direction. Away from me. :p


Now then, time to catch up again. My boss has shown up so I'll have to be short and sweet (as usual:p) but I'll be here.


EDIT: x'd with Nienna

[Nienna]

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

Yeah... about that... I think that at the time I thought there were more people who voted for Lottie than there really were and when I went back over the list I realized that. I was being hasty. I apologize.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta - I don't like it that he can't be around much and he uses all the energy he has to defend himself against random accusations instead of finding a wolf.

Brinn - this just struck me as a very lupine thing to say:
If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna.

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.Makes me actually wonder if Brinn's a wolf and Nienna's an innocent...


edit: xed with Niennax2 and Sally

[Boromir88]

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself. :rolleyes:

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched? :rolleyes:

(And no offense taken to the bad track record comment, for all the aggressiveness and noise I let out, it mostly turns out the end result wasn't nearly as good as the ride. :p I'm like the demented guy on the street, that people can't help but hear, but would prefer if I was stuck in my own little corner)

Edit: crossed with many

[Macalaure]

It's the people who agree with me that I fall for.

I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"...

What the...? You don't really expect it to be that easy, do you? :p

About Brinn's defense of Nienna: I'm not sure whether a wolf would try to defend another very strongly nowadays. It leaves a trail back to you, and if you're unlucky, it'll end with two lynched wolves.

Possible Wilwa-voters are Boro, me, Sally, Nienna? That might be enough. :)

[Nienna]

Makes me actually wonder if Brinn's a wolf and Nienna's an innocent...


This does not make me feel any less wary of you... considering I think Brinn is right on track.

Edit: x-ed with Mac

[Thinlómien]

Well it may be a language thing; here it's spelled 'category'. I didn't know if it was random or it you were somehow trying to be extra-clever.

*pets you*Next time I'll spell it KaTheGory... ;)

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched?No, not really. But I wouldn't probably start being enthusiastic about any possible lynch candidate; only about the ones that would seem reasonable to me. On the other hand, now that I think of it, I don't have anything against the current trend os suspicion... But I still think Sally's trying a bit too hard to be nice and be spared.


edit: xed with Mac and Nienna

[Brinniel]

Okay, while I don't like Bes's vote at all, I think it looks more like a newbie move than a necessarily evil one.

Boromir seems so sensible, I'm actually kind of scared he's actually a wolf. If he is, he's fooling me big time.

I won't vote Nogrod toDay since it's his special day and I'm not mean like Sally. :p I don't have a reason why I'd want to vote him anyway.

A Nienna lynch still looks too easy, so I won't support one for toDay.

Shasta has been itching up my suspicion list. It's not so much the votes, but some other comments. Like a couple remarks he made about me (both yesterDay and toDay). It's the way he suggested that some things I said look suspicious...like he was throwing it out in the open and waiting to see if anyone will take the bait (for example the 'slip,' and when others didn't he quickly backtracked). I also agree with whoever said that his response to Mnemo's role is a bit suspicious. I'm always wary of those who react like "oh, I guess I was wrong...oops" in the same way I'm always wary of those who are all like "yay for the ranger/hunter" whenever a gifted successfully does their job in the Night.

Eomer is also one I'm worried about. The timing of his vote could easily be wolf-on-wolf and I wouldn't put it past him to do that. His cool and relaxed manner also make me uneasy...almost like he doesn't care too much about which way the votes will swing. There's something about his behaviour that's just very sneaky.

I'd like to look more at Sally since I'm feeling rather iffy about her and her behaviour these past Days. Unfortunately, I don't really have time since I should be working on my school project now. I'm not eager to lynch her now since I'd prefer to look back at her posts first, but if it came between her and Nienna, I'd rather see Sally go.

EDIT: X-ed with a gazillion posts

[satansaloser2005]

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched? :rolleyes:

(And no offense taken to the bad track record comment, for all the aggressiveness and noise I let out, it mostly turns out the end result wasn't nearly as good as the ride. :p I'm like the demented guy on the street, that people can't help but hear, but would prefer if I was stuck in my own little corner)

Edit: crossed with many

What, are you trying to make nice with me now?

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

[Boromir88]

Possible Wilwa-voters are Boro, me, Sally, Nienna? That might be enough. :)

I was just thinking about getting it over with, now point in waiting around for a potential mess at the end. I'm set

++wilwa

If you guys botch it and do something foolish at the end, there will lots of wrath from me

[Macalaure]

Next time I'll spell it KaTheGory... ;)What about THEKaGory? :D

[Pitchwife]

Nienna:
- dislike her vote on Day 1
- felt better about her during Day 2 (no further incriminating evidence until voting)
- doubtful again toDay. Don't quite see where her suspicion of Lommy comes from, but I still think Lottie would have been a better choice for a wolf wanting to save Mnemo.

So if we leave Bes for toMorrow, it's rather one of the Lottie-voters. Since what I said in my last about Brinn depends on whether Nienna's a wolf or not, and I'm uncertain about Morsul, that leaves
++sally

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Mac

[A Little Green]

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.The thing is, apart from the actually more-than-little eery feeling about him being a wolf pushing for easy lynches I'm uneasy about Eomer's (I constantly misspell him as Emoer) earlier votes. Yes, on Days 1 and 2 he voted for Mnemo, but in both cases it could very well have been wolf-on-wolf. The guy just stinks of wolf to me, is all. :p

I found myself agreeing with Lommy a lot - her opinion on Wilwa especially was quite exactly like mine. I know it's dangerous to feel good about people because you agree with them, but I do feel better about Lommy now. Nienna, on the other hand, is confusing me.

So, half an hour (a bit less, actually) till deadline, who to vote? I posted my favourite candidates in my previous post, but for the sake of healthy repetition: I'd like to lynch Emoer (see! Again!), Sally, Shasta, or Pitch. I won't object to Wilwa though I think we have better candidates. What about you others?

[Macalaure]

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

Considering that I went from "I feel good about you" to "KILL!!" to "you're probably alright" within one day... ;)

[Boromir88]

What, are you trying to make nice with me now?

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

Fine, next time I don't care what you have to say, I'll be so stubbornly pig-headed I'll refuse to admit when I made a mistake about something and lynch you anyway. :mad:

[Macalaure]

My Internet has become funky all of a sudden, so I better get this out now than maybe never. There's no real reason to wait anymore anyway.

++wilwarin538

[Nienna]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna (2)
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally (2)
Mac --> Wilwa (2)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hi everyone. Made it back to see the fireworks go off.

Amused to see that certain people want to lynch me. There's not been a single reason other than "he feels like a wolf" or "his votes could have been wolf-on-wolf". I love how I'm being suspected for keeping my Mnemo vote til the end on Day 2: yes, I was hanging around til the deadline - what's wrong with that? I had still suspected Mnemo for pretty much the entire game.

One can easily say that any person in this expedition "feels" like a wolf: it's a nonsense, and completely meaningless. Might as well roll a die.

I'm happy that it looks like either wilwa, sally or Nienna is going to die: shows that the expedition hasn't gone crazy and is reverting to the simple decision.

If you want my adv-ice, don't bother with feelings. They're usually shaped by previous interaction with the other players and previous interaction has nothing to do with the players' roles in this game.

[A Little Green]

Thanks for the vote count Nienna! If the situation looks like that, I think I know what I'm gonna do. Of the three people with two votes, I feel the most suspicious by far about Sally. So:

++ Sally

For reasons, you can check my previous posts, I've talked enough of Sally there I think. Now I rather pass the computer on to Lommy.


EDIT: x-ed with Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro - flipfloppy in #445, about wolf-on-wolf on Mnemo. Makes an assumptive generalization in #472 that I'm uncomfortable with. I will also note that though Boro thinks that a wolvish attempt to fenris one of their own is extremely unlikely (especially regarding Greenie), Mac's done it before and won. Suspicious of Wilwa for "deflecting suspicion" from Mnemo[b] - I don't see it. Also, #482 is putting words in my mouth. I didn't jump on [b]Nerwen's vote because I thought she was trying to save Inzil, I jumped on it because it would have killed Mac and I didn't think "dodgy reasoning" was a good enough reason to warrant that kind of vote. His point #2 in #491 is a load of bull (sorry, Boro, but it is) - when making a fake role, you (as a baddie) always want to be as "provably specific" as you can, because it's more believable. I have an example if you want one. (I was innocent at the time, but it still makes my point. :p) Regarding #501, you should know by now that Nogrod has a grand old time playing devil's advocate. I actually wasn't suspicious of you until I began this Day 3 analysis, buuuuuut....

Eomer - considers Mac and Nogrod potential wolves, implies that Nerwen, Lommy, Greenie, and Pitch are all innocent. I felt odd about him Day 1, but this seems like a subtle attempt to remove some people from suspicion without actually coming out and saying same. My radar is bleeping, quite loud.

Lostie - #462, "most confident" in Nienna's innocence. Won't vote her today, though, on account of the reveal. #467 looks like it's in concert with Nienna to drum up different suspects, which seems off. I'm uncomfortable with her vote for Bes. I've noticed that it's been put out there that Lostie might be trying to pull a Ranger-protect in order to give the wolves a free kill - but why would the wolves sacrifice another of their own just to ensure a free kill, when there's an extremely low chance of a successful protect? If this were later in the game, it might be viable, but not with so many of us left.

Morsul - votes himself. Would a wolf do that? I don't see why they wouldn't. Not a definitive tell either way.

Brinn - a voice of reason in #469. However, there's subtle pushing against a Nienna lynch, which might tell us a lot. I still think there's some connection with Nerwen. Regarding #508 - just because you've acted a certain way in the past doesn't mean you can't change the way you act in the present.

Pitch - qualifier in #451. I've noticed he does this a lot, and it grates on me just a little. Wilwa notes that Mnemo concentrated on him and even voted him. I pretty much agree with Wilwa's assessment of him in #497.

Nienna - tried saving Mnemo two days in a row. Why didn't she vote Lostie instead of Lommy, though? Also, tries to make a bit of a mountain out of Nerwen's use of the word "dodgy". #466 looks like it's in concert with Lostie to drum up new suspects, which seems off. Makes me snicker wildly in #485.

Nog - #453 says a whole lot about what he thinks, without actually saying anything. Leaves a bad taste. Is silly and contradictory in #489, but it's not a major point. It's more amusing than suspicious.

Mac - is disappointingly aligned with Boro.

Sally - day 2 vote could have been a try at saving Mnemo. She also keeps semi-suspecting me for no reason, and I find that odd. Am I being set up for something? Example: #484, #488, and especially #515.

Lommy - I feel good about #483 (even if she does have me in the "probably guilty" category. :p).

Nerwen - first vote for Mnemo. If I'm continuing with my line of suspicion, that's two wolf-on-wolf votes in a row... improbable. I'm starting to have a reversal on what I think of Nerwen, but it's been more because of Nienna's words/reactions than anything she herself has done.

Bes - apparently forgets there's a Ranger in this game? Probable newbieness, could have been instructed to play that up by a wolf partner? Vote for Lostie makes me nervous.

Wilwa - Something I've been meaning to answer for a while - Mnemo's #222 was a response to a question I asked earlier in the thread, about why it's bad to vote to save someone.

Greenie - Regarding #514: She did! What was I supposed to say? Also, I agree with her comments on Eomer in #535.

Note - I have only read to #537. I notice it's only about 13 minutes to deadline and I'd like to give people a chance to read the post I've been working on for an hour and a half.

Edit - formatting, and I probably X'ed a couple times.

[satansaloser2005]

Gak! Of all the bad times to have to have people come in!

*catches up*


EDIT: x'd since Nienna's vote count

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, caught up (except for Shasta's epic post, which I'll look at in a second) and will look at that before I vote, but I think I'll go for Wilwa; I'm torn between her and Nienna to be honest, so I'm not entirely sure.

[Nogrod]

We do have a funky internet as well... the best possible timing with three people trying to get online... :rolleyes:

Okay.

I could go for Nienna or even Wilwa.

The way Wilwa went on "trusting my conviction" on D1 felt like something I didn't like at all. And I do find her act a bit too opportunistic - that fits her later moves as well. So a possible vote there as well.

But I'm not too sure Nienna is innocent either. On the contrary. I still suspect her - and the more people say she's innocednt the more I seem to suspect her seeing conspiracies all around...

Shasta: do you really think sopmeone is going to read and chew such a post ten minutes before the DL?

[satansaloser2005]

Crap. I'm really sorry, but I'm getting pulled away so I have to vote now.

++Wilwa

It's up to you, partners. Back hopefully in a moment.

[Brinniel]

She's been very nice to me all game and somehow I get the feeling that if she was innocent she would've suspected me by now...
Have I been nice to you? I thought I was just ignoring you. I've been ignoring a lot of people admittingly, mostly due to my lack of time. I just don't have time to analyse everyone, so I just pay attention to those who jump out as suspicious to me. But I can suspect you if you like. :p

I don't really understand why my defense of Nienna is so suspicious. I just think it's a bad idea to lynch her toDay because she's been appointed toDay's easy lynch since the very start and it all looks too simple. If she acts suspicious in future Days to come, then my mind might change, but for now I won't be voting her.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta posting a list at the last minute makes me suspicious of him, but the content of his post wasn't too bad. *shrug*

++Nienna

Of the three with most votes (her, Sally and Wilwa), she seems the worst to me, but I won't be exactly sad if Wilwa dies either. (Yes I know I'm heartless. :p)

[Nienna]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)

[Nogrod]

Okay. Thanks Brinn for helping me out with the choice.

++ Nienna

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Of course, Brinn, everything must be complicated and have several intricate layers of deception and counter-deception. :p

The simple answer is often correct.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

We do have a funky internet as well... the best possible timing with three people trying to get online... :rolleyes:

Okay.

I could go for Nienna or even Wilwa.

The way Wilwa went on "trusting my conviction" on D1 felt like something I didn't like at all. And I do find her act a bit too opportunistic - that fits her later moves as well. So a possible vote there as well.

But I'm not too sure Nienna is innocent either. On the contrary. I still suspect her - and the more people say she's innocednt the more I seem to suspect her seeing conspiracies all around...

Shasta: do you really think sopmeone is going to read and chew such a post ten minutes before the DL?

I was typing it in Notepad and lost track of time. If you'd like me to summarize -

I could vote for Boro, Eomer, Pitch, or Nienna. I'd rather not throw away my vote, though....

Edit: X'd since Brinn.

[Nienna]

++ Wilwa

[Macalaure]

Nienna will vote to save her, but we need one more... :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

++Sally

[satansaloser2005]

*sighs*

All that and I was only gone a couple minutes. I'll go catch up again.

[Macalaure]

Who's left to vote?

[Macalaure]

3-way tie at 4 each? :eek:

[satansaloser2005]

No idea. I think the count's....never mind, I've no idea.

[Nienna]

3 way tie... thats fun. :mad:

[Brinniel]

Okay. Thanks Brinn for helping me out with the choice.
Why? Because you think me against lynching Nienna suddenly makes her more guilty?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Nienna

[Thinlómien]

3-way tie at 4 each? :eek:
That's sick!!! But interesting. :D :eek:

[Macalaure]

Hell. :(

[Thinlómien]

Okay that probably means Nienna is innocent after all or not sure whatever...

[Nienna]

Shasta!!!!!

[satansaloser2005]

Awkward....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)
Nogrod --> Nienna (4)
Nienna --> Wilwa (4)
Brinniel --> Sally (4)
Shasta --> Nienna (5)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If only we could execute all three of them. :p

[satansaloser2005]

Make that sudden, unexpected, and very awkward.


I have the feeling that when I said "partners" the wolves came out of the woodwork instead of the ordos. You nasties!:mad:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta!!!!!

Yes?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

DEADLINE!

Nog and his daughters didn't manage to incapacitate me, so... I am going to re-check the votes and post the result and the lynchee's role here in a moment.

[Brinniel]

P.S. Nienna if you are a wolf, you won't be getting brownies for me next time I make them. :p (btw, will you be a dear and take my meat out of the freezer...I'd like to make tacos this weekend :D )

EDIT: x-ed with mod...sorry

[satansaloser2005]

Shasta!!!!!

Ditto.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So you have lynched Nienna. And she is... an innocent. Ordinary innocent. Pure as snow. (Yes, that snow. I could not resist.)

I don't know when I am going to post the full narration yet, but anyway not now, sometime during the Night possibly. In any case, all Nightly people can start doing their stuff and all the rest can sleep peacefully... more or less... until the next Day.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The events of the previous night and day were just too much for us and we could not stand the claustrophobic space of the crippled ship anymore. We decided to leave our cook aboard and leave for the nearby island with the bare rocky top jutting from the ice cover which most of us have already visited a few days ago. We felt we had a lot to think about and lot to share, but we just could not get ourselves to talk aboard the ship where so many terrifying events have occured. We needed fresh air.

Equipped with everything we needed for the trip which, we assumed, would not take us more than half a day at most, we set out across the icy plain towards that unknown island. Gradually, as we walked, we started discussing the events of the previous day and night. It soon became clear that most of us had their own theories as to what we have witnessed the previous evening. While our biologists kept bringing in various explanations of rapid cell growth and attempting to draw conclusions from impacts of stress upon metamorphosis occuring at important life stages of many organisms, our pilot, mechanic and navigator kept repeating all over again the same word: Werewolves. It was of course not only them who have thought of it, yet, whichever term we used, it did not move us any closer to the understanding of the strange phenomenon.

It was about halfway through to the island when the tension reached a point where the reasonable discussion was no longer possible. Looking back, it was possibly inevitable to meet conflict, yet I still think we could have done something to prevent what happened then. At first, a fight broke out between our mechanic and our navigator. Apparently the latter had once again interrupted our biologists' discussion by shouting "Werewolves!", which finally annoyed the mechanic and made her hit our navigator, saying "You are saying it because you are a werewolf yourself!" Soon another of our crewmembers joined in and in the end what seemed like a mass madness took the whole company. "It was you who have killed my dogs!" was our dog handler's cry and upon that cry, our navigator turned around and started to run away. I remember shouts and warnings and then somebody took a gun and sent a bullet after her. She dodged, but of course late. She stumbled and fell.

I do not know what madness was taking us. We were all, understandably, terrified - but it was horrible to think that we would start murdering each other.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Pitchwife - marine biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company


GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot in a mass madness (innocent)

It is still Night...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

We have reached the island in an even more tense mood than before. Of course we had to spend some time to take care of our navigator's body. Now that it came to it, there seemed no other choice than to bury her in the snow, there was no way to preserve all the bodies aboard the ship until our return home, not to speak of the question which kept haunting us: if we were to return home at all.

I guess it is a habit for us humans to calm our minds by work or examination, satisfying our curiosity and at the same time letting our thoughts roam free of the momentary situation, as grim as it is. Upon reaching the island, we started inspecting it. Its material was black basaltic rock, possibly raised by the same process which formed the Gakkel Ridge nearby, deep under the sea. It wasn't even very large in size, though we could have assumed that its mass gradually grows under the ice until it reaches the bottom or joins some other unseen formation of submarine rock.

It was most interesting for us to discover that even though the island's surface was covered with ice and snow (presumably of long-term nature), the layer of ice was very thin in some places, thin enough for us to actually notice that some of the depressions in the ground are mere covering for rifts in the rocky surface itself, and crevices which did not seem to actually be filled with snow but merely covered with a layer of ice, and beneath them they continued into unseen depths. It was our young assistant who first noticed the irregularities in the snow layer near the southern edge of the island, and it was also her who marked the position of the crevasse larger than the others, whose ice cork was disrupted - possibly melted during some recent thermal wave - and which eventually seemed to turn into a large shaft mysteriously disappearing underground.

We started to explore the surroundings more closely, looking for possible signs of similar intriguing features of the island's surface. Yet our efforts were soon once again interrupted by the cries of our young assistant, who alone remained close to her original find. When we reached the place, she was already dead - and we had no doubt what had attacked her.

But it was the polar bear biologist who noticed the tracks near the gaping fissure - tracks most intriguing and most unnerving by their nature. It was what seemed like an usual set of tracks of a quadrupedal animal, a sight quite common in the southern latitudes but quite rare at our current site. What seemed peculiar was that these tracks did not seem fresh at all, as far as we could say. There hasn't been any fresh snow for several days and it was clear that the tracks must be more than several hours old. Yet the crowning abnormality of the fact - especially in relation to what we have just experienced during the previous days - that these were undeniably wolf tracks and that they were coming from underground - led us to shift our focus on the curious crevasse.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Pitchwife - marine biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember

GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot on her way back to the ship (innocent)
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company - killed on Night 4 (innocent)

Day 4 starts. Night folks, stop PMing. Everybody, you may start posting.

[Loslote]

Last Night I dreamed of Mr. Agreeable. And do you know why he was so very agreeable? Because he was an evil little Pitchwolf.

[Loslote]

Ah, this time I actually managed to finish a Lommy analysis. Here we go:

Post 1: Summary. I've already looked at this post, so I'm not going to spend much time on it.

Post 2: Suggests the possibility of a Nog-Roa collaboration.

Post 3: Wonders more about the Nog-Roa collaboration; says that they wouldn't attack each other on flimsy reasoning if they were both innocent. (Um, Lommy, have you ever seen Roa and Nog not attack each other as ordos? It's almost traditional.) Suspects Nog, Roa, Nienna, and Mnemo.

Post 4: Says that she still thinks the Nog-Roa thing was staged; says she won't vote them because that seems too drastic. Says she might vote Nienna or Mnemo instead, but she doesn't have much reason.

Post 5: Doesn't want to vote Mnemo because Eomer's vote for her looks bandwaggonish; thinks Nog is panicing; suspects Nienna.

Post 6: Complains about the time.

Post 7: Says a vote for Nienna would be 'throwaway'; deliberates between Nog and Mnemo.

Post 8: Says Mac's last post was suspicious.

Post 9: Says Inzil doesn't seem too bad; votes Mnemo. (Wolf on wolf?...might be pushing it.)

Post 10: Says Mnemo looks worse than Inzil or Mac; says the rest of the Day (two minutes at this point) would be chaotic.

Post 11: Asks about the 4-4 tie; apoligizes for xing with Mr. Mod.

Post 12: Thinks Mac is innocent; thinks Shasta and Nienna look bad; thinks Inzil looks good; thinks Mnemo looks badish; grumps about the no-kill situation; says Roa leaving might be good because we have a definite ordo who was in the thick of arguments; thinks Nog looks suspicious; asks for someone to accuse her so she can get into the game;

(This could be wolvish, sort of a "Oh, I'm not that interested in the game, I must be a ordo, and have no role, which is why I can't get involved!" thing.)

doesn't know what to think of me; reiterates that she feels uninvolved.

Post 13: Thinks sally's innocent but Mnemo's not; thinks Morsul is innocent; thinks Boro's innocent.

Post 14: Mostly banter; says that wolves "don't suspect" the most people.

Post 15: Says 'someone' is jumpy, then says she xed with 'everybody, so I don't know who she was refering to. Lommy, care to explain?

Post 16: Banter with Mnemo.

Post 17: Doesn't want to lynch herself, Boro, me, or Inzil; wouldn't be sorry to lynch Pitchie or Mnemo.

Post 18: Votes Mnemo.

Post 19: Here she switches her positions entirely. Suddenly she's suspicious of Mac, but not of Nog or Mnemo. Where'd that come from?

Post 20: Says she'll be around; says she wouldn't mind if I were lynched but wouldn't be surprised if I were innocent; thinks Wilwa's innocent.

Post 21: Thinks Wilwa is slightly creepy; thinks Boro's innocent.

Post 22: Says Mac and Shasta have good points; notes that Mnemo's in the lead.

Post 23: Doesn't have time to reread; thought I was guilty and is confused by my reveal; thinks Nienna's voting might be wolfish; thinks Morsul's self-vote is weird, but makes sense by his logic and is not wolfish; says she didn't suspect Mnemo much on Day 1; suspects Nienna, Sally, and Shasta most.

Post 24: Doesn't suspect: herself, Greenie, Boro, me, Pitchie, Nerwen, Bes, and Morsul; Suspects: Eomer, Sally, Nienna, Mac, Shasta, Wilwa, Brinn, and Nog.

Post 25: Doesn't think that Sally's jump on Wilwa was bad, but thinks she's desperate to avoid lynching.

Post 26: Asks what was wrong about 'cathegories'.

Post 27: Thinks Shasta isn't on enough and spends too much of his time defending himself rather than wolf-hunting; thinks Brinn might be a wolf and Nienna innocent.

Post 28: Banter about the 'cathegory' thing; thinks Sally's trying to hard to be nice.

Post 29: Thinks Shasta's last minute list was suspicious, but the list itself was fine; votes Nienna because she (Nienna) was the best off the candidates, but she (Lommy) wouldn't mind if Wilwa died instead.

Post 30: Banter about the voting tie.

Post 31: Admits that Nienna was probably innocent after her death is assured; she seems to have gotten this from the fact that Nienna was, in fact, lynched? I'm not following that one...

All in all, I do think Lommy's probably another wolf, and I'm still suspicious of Bes, but I"m not going to analyze him again.

[wilwarin538]

Well.....I'm grateful it wasn't me who was lynched (and was honestly surprised to come home and see that I wasn't), but I hate that I was a part of the Nienna lynch. But it is good to know that today will be more useful, even if Pitch ends up innocent then we know who to go for tomorrow. Thank you Lottie.

Now Boro, I am a fabulous dancer, but I don't think I'm gonna bother. It's not getting me anywhere, and it's making me think we may just be the next NogRoa, just two extremely stubborn innocents who won't give in. Though if you end up succeeding and getting me lynched and you're a wolf, I'm never trusting you again. :rolleyes: :p

Don't have much more time tonight, just wanted to make my presence known quickly, but I have the whole day off tomorrow so I'll be around quite a bit.

[Loslote]

Summarizing Greenie's posts:

Post 1: Thinks the discussion/squabble over lynching sensible people is senseless (very sensible of her); doesn't suspect Lommy, Brinn, Boro, or Nog; vaugely suspects Roa, Morsul, Inzil, and Nerwen.

Post 2: Says that voting records are helpful even if there aren't bandwagoning wolves.

Post 3: Appreciates the discussion, but advises people to calm down; doesn't agree with Nog (or understand what his point was); agrees with Lommy that innocentRoa and innocentNog wouldn't attack each other with no evidence; corrects Boro on what Nog really said; doesn't think Roa Awolf would purposefully mistake the number of wolves; doesn't think a cobblerNog would act the way he was acting.

Post 4: Thinks Boro, Lommy, Eomer, Pitchie, Brinn, and Mac are probably innocent; has no idea about Inzil, me, Nienna, Sally, Nerwen, Roa, Bes, Shasta, Wilwa, and Kehra; is wary of Mnemo, Nog, and Morsul.

Post 5: Says that Lommy's list isn't non-helpful.

Post 6: Doesn't know what to think about Nog; suspects Mnemo, but doesn't have time to do a proper analysis.

Post 7: Banter with Eomer.

Post 8: Votes Mnemo.

Post 9: Says that Nog is implying that if someone doesn't see what he sees, they are not an ordo.

Post 10: Says she chose to vote Mnemo instead of Nog because she wanted to give him more time to make sense; thinks Mnemo's post is weird; doesn't know what to think about Pitchie, Shasta, or me; wants to trust Boro and Nerwen.

Post 11: Banter with Lommy; sugests that Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf ing; doesn't know what to think about Mnemo, but still suspects her; corrects Boro - she didn't jump on Morsul, just disagree with him; admits that she may have jumped on Nog; banter.

Post 12: Doesn't suspect: Boro, Eomer, Brinn, Mac, and Lommy; has no idea: Inzil, Morsul, Pitchie, Nienna, Sally, Nog, Nerwen, Bes, Shasta, Wilwa, Kehra; is wary of: Mnemo and me.

Post 13: Asks Eomer and Sally for clarification on their posts.

Post 14: Warns that she'll probably vote soon and then study/go to bed.

Post 15: Votes Mnemo.

Post 16: Says she's here and reading.

Post 17: Doesn't suspect: Boro, me, Morsul, Mac, Lommy, and Nerwen; no idea about: Brinn, Nerwen, Nog, Bes, and Wilwa; is wary of: Eomer, Pitchie, Sally, and Shasta.

Post 18: Notes that Sally's jump on Wilwa looks opportunistic; says she'll probably vote Eomer, Sally, Pitchie, or Shasta.

Post 19: Thinks Eomer looks really suspicious; is willing to vote Wilwa, but wants to vote Eomer, Sally, Pitchie, or Shasta.

Post 20: Thanks Nienna for the vote count; votes Sally.

[Loslote]

À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.

This kind of makes me not suspect Bes as much. It looks like Pitchwolf was trying to hint that I should dream about Bes, when my dreaming Bes wouldn't really have offered much to work with, other than his own role. Hmm...anyway,

++Pitchie

[Nogrod]

So, it looks like a simple matter then Today.

We lynch Pitch and if he's a wolf then it's two down. If he's not, then we lynch Lottie the next Day and we are either two wolves down or just one wolf and an evil additional role.

If it is the first thing, then yay Lottie! Interesting pick and well done! *bows*


But even if the script is there for toDay, let's not waste a good Day just sleeping over it.

[Nogrod]

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?

[Loslote]

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?

Is this innocent or Nog saying "I suspected Pitchwolf! I must be innocent!"? I can't tell, but I don't think Nog is one of the two wolves left.

I do think Lommy is one. The others I find somewhat suspicious are Sally, Wilwa, and Eomer. Eomer could easily be moved down to "unsure", though. The only reason he's up there at all is because he's slipped right under my radar, and I suddenly realized that I keep giving him the 'sensible' pass. *sigh*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I've been trying to analyize Pitch for the past half hour and the site won't let me go to his posts. Curiouser and curiouser... looks like I'll have to do it the hard way.

Ctrl-F, please be my friend. *sigh*

[Nogrod]

Is this innocent or Nog saying "I suspected Pitchwolf! I must be innocent!"? I can't tell, but I don't think Nog is one of the two wolves left.
Well, I was merely illustrating the fact that we all (myself included) fell silent on him after some quite widespread suspicion earlier... well at least I thought there was some general concern with him. So I think the interersting thing is to plunge back there and see how it died out - and what was it in the first place.

I'll try to do that before Lommy and Greenie come from the party they're in.

So I've been trying to analyize Pitch for the past half hour and the site won't let me go to his posts. Curiouser and curiouser...It must be an evil curse of somekind... :eek:

[Loslote]

Well, I was merely illustrating the fact that we all (myself included) fell silent on him after some quite widespread suspicion earlier... well at least I thought there was some general concern with him. So I think the interersting thing is to plunge back there and see how it died out - and what was it in the first place.

Okay, that makes sense - and I do get your point. My suspicions were basically "He looks bad. Oh, look, a butterfly!"

[Pitchwife]

WHAT???

This is what comes of me thinking she were genuine???

[Loslote]

WHAT???

This is what comes of me thinking she were genuine???

Aww. Look at poor Pitchie, trying to refute my dream. Silly, silly Pitchie.

And you know, I wouldn't have dreamed you if you hadn't tried to hint that I should dream of Bes. Just pointing that out. ;)

[Macalaure]

Pitchwife a wolf? Very good. Let's get the pitchforks and lynch him!

Greenie dead. Not surprising. Everybody thought she was innocent. Analysis due.

And now what in Arda was that yesterDay? I wish we could triple-lynch Pitch, Wilwa, and Shasta toDay and be done with it. Let's lynch Sally, too, to be on the safe side.

Well, maybe not. There had to be at least 5 or 6 six wolves in that voting yesterDay. :rolleyes: ;)

I predict a relatively boring Day. There will be some discussion about whether we can really trust Loslote, but the majority won't doubt her or conclude that Pitch's death is the best way to find out. There will be some analysis of the lynchee, the voting, and the kill, but since there's no urgency, there won't be any heated debate. Obviously there will be no heated voting either, and unless we find something groundbreaking, our prime suspects tomorrow will still be Wilwa and Sally. Let's try to make it interesting anyway. :)

[Boromir88]

Pitchers(o' ice), you get to have all the fun by being a known wolf for the day. I've had that pleasure before, and I have to tell you we go much easier on the wolves who co-operate. So, give up you're other two buds and we'll give you a nice, quick, death. :p

On another note, my participation for the upcoming week is going to be considerably less and vary from day to day.

Congrats Lottie, nice choice, he would have been a tough wolf to get because of Mnemo's vote. I'm going to do what I did on Mnemo yesterday, only this time it'll be on Pitch.

[Bes]

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems. :(

[Bes]

Bolding mine:
Aww. Look at poor Pitchie, trying to refute my dream. Silly, silly Pitchie.

And you know, I wouldn't have dreamed you if you hadn't tried to hint that I should dream of Bes. Just pointing that out. ;)

... Wait. So a seer chooses who to dream about? Like, even if they're a real seer? Now I'm just confused. Damning evidence we would have had anyway aside, how does this make a seer more useful than, well, anyone else?

Edit: I thought of how that could work reliably about a second after posting. You PM Legate and get your answer, yay or nay, that way I assume?

[Loslote]

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems. :(

Might be playing up the newbie card, but what with Pitchie's 'suggestion' I'm more willing to believe that Bes really is just a newbie, not a wolf. Still, he's one to keep an eye on.

EDIT: xed with Bes

[Loslote]

... Wait. So a seer chooses who to dream about? Like, even if they're a real seer? Now I'm just confused. Damning evidence we would have had anyway aside, how does this make a seer more useful than, well, anyone else?

Edit: I thought of how that could work reliably about a second after posting. You PM Legate and get your answer, yay or nay, that way I assume?

Yes, that's basically it. I pm a name to Mr. Mod and he pms me back with their role.

[Macalaure]

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing. ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pitchalysis

(I don't know how to link posts, so forgive me. They're numbered, though. I skipped over all the banter.)

#27 (Mac) - "Pitch gives me an innocent feel, for some reason." Interesting, considering he's said nothing but banter up to this point.

#35 (Boro) - Clarifies a suspicion of Pitch based on a Captain Obvious moment.

#51 (Pitch) - "I agree about not lynching reasonable people, especially not those who have made an effort to turn this into a serious discussion - which would be Roa, Mnemo and Boro, most notably.
" Roa left the game as an innocent and Mnemo's a dead wolf. What does this say about Boro, I wonder?

#57 (Mac) - Mentions that Pitch's comment about the Boro-reasonableness-versus-unreasonableness debate "might be" suspicious.

#58 (Lommy) - Is inclined to like Pitch for being agreeable and sensible, but wonders if he's not too agreeable. A rather nice fence-sit, in my opinion.

#91 (Nog) - Calls Pitch "one of the most dangerous wolves there are" because of his tendency to slip under the radar.

#102 (Pitch) - Thinks Boro ought to get a break, as he's "stirring the pot". Also considers him to be dodgy (I'm nullifying the obvious qualifier here).

#106 (Pitch) - Notes Mac's use of double standards.

#108 (Mnemo) - "Might" vote for Pitch because he feels a little "off" (says the same for Inzil). Typical wolvish distancing.

#112 (Mac) - Brings Pitch down from "innocent" to "unsure". Interesting.

#120 (Pitch) - Mentions that Morsul looks rather innocent.

#127 (Pitch) - Says a lot without saying much. Notes that Eomer makes more good points than anyone else mentioned in the post (Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, and myself). Also notes that Nerwen seems to be acting differently than usual... and then qualifies it. :rolleyes:

#128 (Mnemo) - More wolvish distancing. Says she'll vote for Pitch or Inzil.

#133 (Eomer) - Puts Pitch in the "Will probably vote for one of" category, along with six other people.

#139 (Mac) - Puts Pitch (and Mnemo!) in the "I would like to avoid voting" category. For a Mac who's won by sacrificing his wolf partners, this seems strange for a Macwolf to do, but I wouldn't put it past him (oh no, qualifying is becoming contagious!)

#150 (Pitch) - Pushes Nogrod as having the secret role. Why?

#155 (Mac) - Flipflops on Pitch again, seeing him as innocent.

#158 (Nogrod) - Notes that both Inzil and Pitch both are being "careful".

#162 (Pitch) - votes Mac for "double standards, general slipperyness, plus the flip-flopping Zil pointed out."

#192 (Mnemo) - More distancing. "I need to take a closer look at Pitch and Inzil today."

#198 (Pitch) - A few things. First, Pitch doesn't get Boro's comment about Inzil and Mac not being gifted. Doesn't want to assume anything about Inzil and Mac. Secondly, interacts with Mac, wanting to know about his feelings about Inzil (also mentions Mnemo here).

#205 (Mnemo - Subtly backs up Pitch on the subject of gifteds not necessarily revealing when up for a lynch. I wonder if they weren't setting each other up for a reveal of some kind, or at least giving themselves fodder to contest a reveal later should it happen.

#207 (Nogrod) - Calls Pitch's vote for Mac into question.

#213 (Pitch) - Says something I find amusing, in hindsight: "I rather prefer staying out of Day 1 bandwagons." Hence his vote for Mac (third of four). Right.

#217 (Mac) - Says he would like to take a closer look at Pitch and Mnemo. Interesting...

#233 (Nogrod - "Mac and Pitch are not both wolves." I have a problem with statements like this. They're far too absolute.

#273 (Lommy) - "Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too." Lommy, when you say "him", which "him" are you referring to? Pitch or Nog? Also, has both Mnemo and Pitch in her "Leaning guilty" group.

#274 (Mac) - Uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch if other people are going to do the same. A rather odd comment.

#313 (Mac) - Grants Pitch more innocence. Mac, you flip-flop on Pitch a lot.

#334 (Eomer) - Notes that he didn't want to vote Pitch (or Brinn or Lommy).

#343 (Pitch) - Starts to jump on me for my vote for Inzil, butting into a conversation between Morsul and Nienna.

#345 (Morsul) - Agrees with Pitch against me.

#350 (Lommy) - Thinks there's something fishy about Pitch.

#356 (Nogrod) - "Some of Pitch's posting looks odd and over-careful."

#359 (Sally) - Puts Pitch in her "Possible wolves" column. I think this is the first time she's even mentioned Pitch.

#360 (Pitch) - Notes that voting to save someone by giving someone else their second or third vote doesn't look innocent (referring to Nienna and myself). Also thinks my vote for Nerwen was "voting those who're too reasonable". Um, what?

#363 (Wilwa) - First time she's mentioned Pitch, calls him "iffy" after a quick skim and might vote for him. Interesting. Notes that her vote will probably be between Boro and Pitch.

#372 (Nogrod) - Considering a Pitch vote for being too nice.

#381 (Wilwa) - "I've decided it would be best for me to stick with Boro as previously stated." Is this a wolf not wanting to be accused of a wolf-on-wolf vote?

#386 (Sally) - "Pitch: another bad vibe, to be honest;" Interesting.

#395 (Pitch) - Clearly defends Mac against Morsul which I find odd.

#416 (Bes) - First time Bes has really mentioned Pitch. Suspects Mac, Pitch, and Nogrod all equally.

#426 (Eomer) - Puts "innocent?" by Pitch because of his vote for Mnemo.

#427 (Pitch) - Refutes Eomer and says his vote was safe. (Eomer clarifies in the next post - he meant his Day 1 vote). Qualifies the rest of his conclusions.

#438 (Nogrod) - Mnemo's vote for Pitch flips what he thinks about Pitch - "more innocent than not". Pitch looks rather good for his vote for Mnemo.

#440 (Eomer) - Has Pitch firmly in the "Innocent" column. Interesting.

#444 (Pitch) - Flip-flops his stance on my vote for Nerwen Day 1, even though he's replying to something Nogrod said about someone completely different.

#451 (Pitch) - "Of the Lottie-votes, I'd say Brinn looks the most innocent to me."

#460 (Mac) - Vacillates on Pitch before finally finding him innocent on account of the wolves' kill choice of Inzil.

#461 (Wilwa) - As a side affect of her Mnemo analysis, thinks Pitch to be innocent.

#476 (Nerwen) - Seems to be a general consensus; thinks Mnemo's vote for Pitch was unlikely to be wolf-on-wolf.

#481 (Mac) - Feels quite good about Pitch, in both situations.

#483 (Lommy) - Pitch is "probably innocent". Dang, he certainly had it made before Lottie's reveal.

#497 (Wilwa) - Is suddenly wary of Pitch again, mostly after being called on it by Boro. A flustered wolf? Immediately puts him in the "most uneasy" column.

#517 (Pitch) - Finds Bes's vote for Lottie suspicious.

#518 (Sally) - Agrees with Pitch regarding Bes. I dunno, such stout backing up doesn't lead me to think wolf-on-wolf - Sally's smarter than that.

#519 (Boro) - Applaud's Pitch's lack of agreeableness in posting an alternate perception, that Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

#539 (Lommy) - Is quite convinced that Pitch is an ordo.

---------------

Surely not all, Mac. I analyzed those who interacted with [b]Pitch[b], too.

Edit: Formatting.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, that makes sense - and I do get your point. My suspicions were basically "He looks bad. Oh, look, a butterfly!"

Dearie, I love this post so much. :p

Oh, and (assuming you're telling the truth, of course) apologies for doubting you. After the last game where one of us was a gifted I'm surprised we didn't band together, but you looked really shifty. Apparently I have a role findier, not a wolf finder. Rubbish. Anyway, good call. And I'm really happy you were allowed to survive the Night, if just for the amusing wording of your posts.

++Pitch


Why wait? However, I'll get to some analyses tonight.


EDIT: I had to turn my computer off for a bit to talk to some friends so I've not caught up. Thus, x'd since the post I quoted.

[Pitchwife]

Pitchers(o' ice), you get to have all the fun by being a known wolf for the day. I've had that pleasure before, and I have to tell you we go much easier on the wolves who co-operate. So, give up you're other two buds and we'll give you a nice, quick, death.
How come you're so sure?

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.
Exactly.

Of course, I totally see you all have no logical choice but lynching me toDay to find out the truth (Mr Agreeable doubling as Captain Obvious, for a change). It still sucks... just as I was getting warmed up...

[satansaloser2005]

I don't have much time at the moment(Dinner should be arriving soon, and I have cleaning to do.), but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night. I've still got a lot of basic learning to do, it seems. :(

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

In other news, I've quite a suspicion that Shasta could be a problem. I mean really, who doesn't, but I thought I'd put that out there. I'm not happy with him.

[Loslote]

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

[Loslote]

I know he's a newbie but it sounds like he was a little let down our beloved ranger isn't dead yet. And why is this point relevant? (I ask because it's possible I skipped a post.) Is he just trying to make himself look more innocent/new to avoid being lynched for his behavior? (Again, posing the question. I'll have to look at his posts more fully before I make a decision.)

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Had you seen that and were just restating something that you agreed with, or did you come up with that yourself?

EDIT: xed with Sally

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

[satansaloser2005]

*has an idea but doesn't think it will be received very well*

First of all....Lottie, you only get one dream, correct? Did I understand that right?

[satansaloser2005]

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

K, thanks. I figured I'd missed something.

[Loslote]

*has an idea but doesn't think it will be received very well*

First of all....Lottie, you only get one dream, correct? Did I understand that right?

Yes, that's right. What's the idea? And why do I get the feeling I shouldn't have asked?

EDIT: xed with Sally

[Loslote]

I saw that you mentioned it, but I put it in the analysis basically independently.

Okay, thanks. That, at least, makes me feel a bit more confident in easing up on suspecting Bes.

[Pitchwife]

Pitchwife a wolf? Very good. Let's get the pitchforks and lynch him!
Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

[Brinniel]

I should just rub it in all your faces now and say I told you so. It was a mistake to lynch Nienna, she was the easy lynch, the most obvious suspect usually turns out innocent, blah, blah, blah. Shame on those who didn't listen, especially the ones who accused me of being a wolf defending a fellow wolf (I mean really, where's the logic here?). You may have killed Nienna, but she still gets her brownie. So there. :p

I'm much more ready to believe Loslote toDay as she's exposed a wolf and I would expect a baddie posing as a wolf to 'dream' of an innocent. Otherwise it's plain suicide...unless she's a wolf sacrificing a fellow wolf to look good which I don't find at all likely since it's rather risky (especially since I can't recall Pitchwife receiving much suspicion, so why sacrifice him). Anyway, we can lynch him toDay, but we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

[Loslote]

we should also be a bit productive and try to sniff out the other two.

Lommy I'm very suspicious of due to her posts at the end of yesterDay. Shasta I was worried about already and I'm worrying about him even more toDay. Nogrod, I'd like you to answer my question from the end of yesterDay because I'm still confused why my post decided your vote.

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

[satansaloser2005]

I agree about Lommy, but I don't see much suspicious about Shasta or Nog. This is not to say that I would fight tooth and nail to prevent their lynching; I just don't think they're the other two wolves. I'd prefer looking at Wilwa, to be frank.

I concur.


Now back to explaining my grand scheme. Back in a moment.

[Loslote]

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

[Nogrod]

I'm coming to yesterDay... *how slow can you be?* :rolleyes:

But I can see the reason already why the suspicions on Pitchie went down: because of the mutual voting between Mnemo and Pitch. One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

Just look at Shasta's summary how everyone drops the suspicion and calls Pitchie "innocent(ish)" after D2 votes & learning Mnemo was a wolf afterall. Can we be this simple?

But interestingly there are only a few people who even commented on Pitch earlier... I'll try to collect my data into some intelligible stuff as I run through yesterDay first - and see if there are any patterns of opportunism to be found.

[satansaloser2005]

Yes, that's right. What's the idea? And why do I get the feeling I shouldn't have asked?

Because it's insane, that's why. But it won't leave my brain so it must be posted. And a note in advance: If you're short on time skip this post and come back to it later. I had to get this plan/theory off my chest but I know there's far too many variables so we can discuss it later if we think it's viable. Basically if you're in a rush this isn't the most important thing for you to read.


Now, on with the plan. We've got a hunter who is able to take a wolf with them when they die, right? Right.

1 Hunter – she stands with the innocents, and at any point of the game, she can choose people whom she is going to watch and take with her in case she dies. That effectively means that the Hunter will send me a list of three or less names (maximally up to the number of living Werewolves in game), and if she is killed during the Night and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, nothing happens. If the Hunter is lynched and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is the first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, the first person who is on the list will die alongside her. The Hunter can change her list at any point, however, in case of her death, I am of course taking into account only the list I had in my disposition before the deadline of the current Day/Night (i.e. for example if the Hunter is lynched, then Night comes, and she sends me another list after she died, I am not going to take it into account). The Ranger and Hunter know each other's identities and can PM each other during the Night.

Okay. So. Let's assume (for kicks let's use Mithalwen....not only because it allows us to be completely meta and hypothetical but I want to see her search herself and wonder what's going on) Mith is pretty sure Lottie is telling the truth. Therefore Pitchie is her main suspect. She would then put Pitch on her list just in case the Day goes awry in some way. So there's a wolf down, assuming that either Pitch is first on her list or that the other people on her list are not wolves. Basically if our hunter is mis-lynched (let's hope not) or Night killed the known wolf will go down with them. This could leave us free to lynch another suspect toDay and see what we can make of other ties, perhaps allowing us to end the wolf threat (and thus win the game, of course) sooner. Mith could stay in hiding that way and we would be able to have an automatic wolf down when she dies. Of course if she stays alive long enough and/or we decide it's getting too close for us we can kill Pitch then and Mith can choose new target(s), but that allows us to circumvent Game!End angst by having a known wolf to lynch and also affords us the possibility of a known wolf who would be more or less powerless. We ignore everything Pitch says, and as long as we ensure our lynches are orchestrated properly he can't cause too much trouble. Consider him a PoW.

Of course I know there's problems with this, not the least of all being that without lynching Pitch we can't validate Lottie's claim. But in theory it would be good, because we'd incapacitate a wolf and be able to rely on our logic still rather than just accepting freebies from our seer (which isn't bad, but not nearly as fun in my opinion).

Whew. I feel better now. Sorry I wasted so much time on that but it refused to go away. Now on to analyze/re-read and catch up. *sighs, gets to work*

[satansaloser2005]

Wait, you agree? I thought you said you thought Shasta could be a big problem.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I agree about Lommie being a good suspect. And I do think Shasta's a problem; Nog, not so much. So 2/3?

[Loslote]

Intriguing idea. There is the problem that you guys can't verify what I say, then, until I die, but it might work. Of course, my supporting "the plan" could easily be taken as a wolf realizing what a tight spot I was in and seeing a good way to avoid it, so I'm not going to try to push it, but if everyone else wants to, I'd be willing to go along...or would be, if I hadn't already voted.

And, okay, 2/3 makes sense.

[Macalaure]

YesterDay's voting

Morsul -> Morsul (...)
Lottie -> Bes
Nerwen -> Nienna (as I said yesterDay, considering that she had little time, this vote looks ok)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (she was under suspicion a lot yesterDay, so a vote that perfectly fits an attempt to save herself isn't surprising, but at this early point, it's extremely suspicious)
Eomer -> Sally (sounds perfectly reasonable, but I agree with the people who find him eerie)
Bes -> Lottie (with his explanations toDay, this vote looks ok)
Boro -> Wilwa (I really can't imagine a guilty Boro anymore. If you're a wolf, hats off)
Pitch -> Sally(2) (considering the considerable suspicion against her, this would have been a daring wolf-on-wolf. He even makes points against Nienna in his voting post, so going save and voting her would have been easy. Sally looks better)
Me -> Wilwa(2)
Green -> Sally(3) (has Greenie been killed in part to set up Sally?)
Sally -> Wilwa(3) (I might be a bit biased about people who vote Wilwa, but especially considering that Sally voted to save her life, I see no fault with this one)
Lommy -> Nienna(3) (unsure about this one, very unsure. The problem is that all three were under suspicion from quite early on, so it's easy for a wolf to be consistent. I see no obvious malintent, but Lommy is eerie as well)
Nogrod -> Nienna(4) (one of the worst votes yesterDay, but for the same reason as with Lommy, it's difficult to judge)
Nienna -> Wilwa(4)
Brinn -> Sally(4) (did she cross with Nienna's vote? Their votes came during the same minute, but Brinn didn't say anything, and a simple vote can be typed in seconds. If it's not crossed, then why on earth did she vote for Sally? If she was so opposed to have Nienna die, voting Wilwa was the only logical possibility, even if she might have suspected Sally more)
Shasta -> Nienna(5) (to his defense, he said he was going to, and Nienna was already leading (first to reach 4), so this wasn't a crucial vote. Nevertheless, a very bad one here)

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.


Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.Will do. :)

[Loslote]

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.


Will do. :)

Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, and Lommy. I'd bet that's our pack.

[satansaloser2005]

Intriguing idea. There is the problem that you guys can't verify what I say, then, until I die, but it might work. Of course, my supporting "the plan" could easily be taken as a wolf realizing what a tight spot I was in and seeing a good way to avoid it, so I'm not going to try to push it, but if everyone else wants to, I'd be willing to go along...or would be, if I hadn't already voted.

And, okay, 2/3 makes sense.

Yeah, I thought of it after I'd voted as well. Of course we could still pull it off if we coordinate our efforts but there is the question of whether we can trust you.


Now if we'd known there was a seer you'd be trusted and protected yadda yadda and the plan would work perfectly but unfortunately in this situation, not so much.

[Loslote]

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.

[satansaloser2005]

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.

Hmmmm. Interesting indeed. I wonder if the 'regular' gifteds were given the same instructions. *shrugs* And weird on the name. The one-time dream makes sense now though, so good on that.

[satansaloser2005]

*hears crickets*

All right, I think I'll head off for a while then. I'm attending a concert at college (because the duck is a musical genius, etc. and I promised our other friend I'd go) so I'll be unavailable for some time after I leave.

You know, no one's analyzed me properly this game. I'm very sad. :(

[Loslote]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)
Nogrod --> Nienna (4)
Nienna --> Wilwa (4)
Brinniel --> Sally (4)
Shasta --> Nienna (5)

Since Nienna was innocent, and I think Wilwa and Lommy are furry, let's see how this played out.

After Nerwen, Wilwa was second to vote Nienna, putting her in the lead (though admittedly there were only two votes, neither very helpful, at the time.) Then Eomer voted Sally, and Boro voted Wilwa. Next Pitchie voted Sally, and then Mac voted Wilwa. Greenie put Sally in the lead, then Sally tied it with a vote for Wilwa, and Lommy voted Nienna to bring it to a three way tie. Nog, Nienna, and Brinn voted for Nienna, Wilwa, and Sally, respectively, and then Shasta broke the tie and voted Nienna.

Both Lommy and Wilwa voted for Nienna. Wilwa put Nienna in the lead, and Lommy tied her with Sally and Wilwa. Pitchie voted for Sally, tying her with Nienna. Not sure what, exactly, this means, but it sure doesn't disprove my "Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, Lommy pack" idea.

EDIT: xed with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?

[satansaloser2005]

Morsul --> Morsul
Lottie --> Bes
Nerwen --> Nienna
Wilwa --> Nienna
Eomer --> Sally
Bes --> Lottie
Boro --> Wilwa
Pitch --> Sally
Mac --> Wilwa
Greenie -->Sally (3)
Sally --> Wilwa (3)
Lommy --> Nienna (3)
Nog-->Nienna (4)
Nienna-->Wilwa (4)
Brinn-->Sally (4)

Sorry, have to actually go through the list to check. Nope, everything else was out. So why did he make the extra step to vote Nienna? It seems so weird to me.

Maybe he knows what Legate's other secret event is? Perhaps it's making a lynch random in the event of an x+-way tie? Heck if I know, but it looks awkward.

[Loslote]

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?

Actually, by that point, everyone else had already voted. Maybe Shasta was unsure if the person lynched was going to be the first to get the points, or a coin flip, or something else entirely, so he voted just in case. Or, my preferred theory: Shasta's an ordo who wanted to vote because that's what he's supposed to do and he didn't care what the implications were.

EDIT: xed with Sally, who said much the same thing.

[satansaloser2005]

Actually, by that point, everyone else had already voted. Maybe Shasta was unsure if the person lynched was going to be the first to get the points, or a coin flip, or something else entirely, so he voted just in case. Or, my preferred theory: Shasta's an ordo who wanted to vote because that's what he's supposed to do and he didn't care what the implications were.

Yeah, that's possible too. But he knew the first to count would go, because didn't it happen another Day? Meh, I don't know; I just found it strange.



EDIT: Happy 2,500 posts to me!!!! :D:D:D

[Loslote]

Yeah, that's possible too. But he knew the first to count would go, because didn't it happen another Day? Meh, I don't know; I just found it strange.

It's possible that he thought he knew, but didn't have time to check and didn't want to run the risk.

[satansaloser2005]

It's possible that he thought he knew, but didn't have time to check and didn't want to run the risk.

Very good point. To be fair I'd likely err on the side of caution as well in that case. Whatever his leaning either he was intentionally ensuring that Nienna died or just voting because he knes it wouldn't make a difference and he had to.

[Loslote]

Very good point. To be fair I'd likely err on the side of caution as well in that case. Whatever his leaning either he was intentionally ensuring that Nienna died or just voting because he knes it wouldn't make a difference and he had to.

In any case, I don't think Shasta is a wolf. I've already said who I think the wolves are. Now it's just picking apart minute points...

[Loslote]

I'm off, then, and probably won't be on again for a few hours. I will almost definitely be on before deadline, though.

[satansaloser2005]

In any case, I don't think Shasta is a wolf. I've already said who I think the wolves are. Now it's just picking apart minute points...

Well we can always agree to disagree, at least on one point. I'm nearly certain that one of Lommie and Wilwa is a wolf, I'm just not completely convinced they both are. If one of them isn't, I'm going to put Shasta as a fourth, but I'll agree both of them are on my top suspects list. *shrugs* And yes, the details.


EDIT: x'd with Lottie. Dearie, see you later toDay. Oh, and have a good night (assuming it's evening for you). Can't have you doing a victory (or completely screwed) dance on little to no sleep, can we? ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, sorry Nienna: but I'm sure you realise that you were a decent lynch choice and are helping the progress of the expedition. Our knowledge increases, even with incorrect lynches.

I don't see what we can lose by trusting Loslote for one day. So, unless something crazy happens, I will be voting Pitch today. And I considered Pitch innocent before, hmm....

Too much brandy renders me useless for now. I will probably see you tomorrow to add a vote for Pitch. Until then: enjoy life, fellow players.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I'm off in a few minutes. You won't be hearing from me for three hours or so, so be productive and behave yourselves while Mummy's away. ;)

[Nogrod]

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent. Let me ask you what would you have said if I had been inconsistent with an obvious malintent? :D

What this tells me is that you have first decided that you would like to walk me to the gallows and then come up with reasons afterwards. Sad. So sad. :(

And Brinn, you asked me something yesterDay... I had to go back and look as the last half an hour I only had sporadic access to reading as we were sharing the computer.

Well you can look at my posts #489 and #541 to begin with. I'll just copy a part of #541 here...


I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.
You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.
(meaning Lottie-wagon)

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?
So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day. Sadly it was wrong as well.


Okay. I try to stay up long enough to make a summary of what I saw in relation to Pitch going through the thread.

[satansaloser2005]

Nog, go to bed!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mad::mad:



:)

[Macalaure]

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent.

The placement of your vote is still very bad. Since you are not stupid, you know that. You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day.

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.

[Nogrod]

The placement of your vote is still very bad.
...
You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.
Having two other players + the mod in my place around the DL after first preparing food for the people and then socialising the last hours with them by dinner eg. not seeing the thread in something like four hours or so (and with one working computer and another with a cranky internet connection for the last hour) kind of gives me not too many options to strategically look after the placement of my vote to look especially good in your eyes (like I would consider that in the first place if I was at home with all peace and the PC to myself)... or to think about it too much as there was little chance to read all the stuff that happened during the last hours / minutes.

I thought we made our situation clear yesterDay. :confused:

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.Agreed. But that's kind of a lousy counter-argument / rhetorical trick, as it's hard to see how anything one says can be "proven" in a WW-game (things confirmed with death notwithstanding)... :D

What are you up to man?

[Nogrod]

Okay, I have never tried this kind of analysis before... let's see if it helps anyone but me.

So a + means the one thinks Pitchie more good than evil, a 0 means something like neutrality, and a - means the one thinks him more suspisious than not.

I have not taken known innocents abroad but Greenie seemed to suspect Pitchie quite (to the end) a lot and Inzil was more or less wavering. I have included Mnemo though just to show the perspective.

And the mentionings are in the order they appeared on that Day...

Day1

Mac: + (gives an innocent feel)
Mac: - (might be suspicious)
Lommy: 0 (inclined to like him but is he too agreeable?)
Morsul: + (feels innocent)
Nog: - (three people: considerate and reasonable, thus dangerous)
Boro: - (four people: expecting more from but far from seeing it)
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; feel a bit off, maybe a vote, wants to hear more)
Mac: - (too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore) sure?
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; giving her the closest thing to a wolvish vibe)
Eomer: - (will probably vote for someone out of seven candidates; no reason given for Pitch being there)
Mac: + (would like to avoid voting him alongside five others - while not voting eight others)
Mac: + (he looked first innocent, then less and yet more innocent again)
Nog: - (Pitch & Inzil; looks helpful rather than is, careful indeed)

Day2

Mac: - (bandwagoning on him on D1, throws stuff but claims it a vibe-thing)
Mnemo: 0 (Pitch & Inzil: wants to make a deeper look at them)
Nog: - (agree with Mac it looks bandwagonish… seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts)
Lottie: - (looks suspicious, but doesn't have anything solid yet)
Nog: -(puts a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone, restating earlier points - as it is a list post)
Mac: (says earlier two times and here as well that he will look at Pitch closer...)
Bes: - (after Macanalysis ending up willing to vote him he says he might have considered me or Pitchie as well)
Mnemo: - (makes a damning analysis: silly jumpiness & posting in chunks)
Lommy: - (leaning guilty list: he's one of the five, no explanation given)
Mac: 0 (needs to "verify his own suspicion" but doesn't like the way people suspect him)
Lommy: - (comments on votes given; wouldn't be so sorry if Pitch died, because there's something fishy in his posts)
Nog: - (some of his posting looks odd and over-careful, giving two examples #110 & #127 of wishing especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way)
Sally: - (lists him along the "possible wolves", not wolves though or those she doesn't have anything)
wilwa: - (could vote him among others; makes her feel uneasy and is iffy)
Nog: - (speculating on voting possibilities and restating things already said)
Wilwa: 0 (thought she might go with Pitch but decides to stick with Boro)
Sally: - ("another bad vibe, to be honest; I had evidence but can't remember what it was right now, so basically he's just acting strange and I don't like it")
Bes: - (will not vote but stays with the same three suspect; Mac, Nog & Pitch)

Day3

Eomer: + (because of the Mnemo voting him)
Nog: + (because of the Mnemo voting him and him voting Mnemo)
Mac: + (the voting + the wolves picking Inzil: "Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them")
Wilwa: + (Mnemo voted him at a time that he very well could have been lynched)
Lottie: 0 (seems innocent, maybe too much so?) [later put him into slightly suspected category in a list]
Nerwen: + (Mnemo's vote was unlikely a wolf-on-wolf)
Mac: + (with evidence and feeling Pitch is "quite good")
Wilwa: - (reconsiders: his vote on D1 tied Mac with Mnemo and on D2 it might have been a give-up)
Lommy: + (quite convinced he's an ordo: no bad vibes + Mnemo-stuff)
Shasta: - (agrees with Wilwa, could vote for him with three others)


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Everyone can see what people thought of Pitch, but the more interesting thing to me is who didn't say things about him or when they did if they did. I've been a wolf quite many times and claim to know how it "usually" goes. Some stick to the front and interact with each other - even voting each other - while others are ignored... and it's the last issue I'm now interested about.


Interestingly Brinn has not said a word about Pitch in the whole game! And her happiness in claiming the moral highground toDay hasn't made me feel better of her.

Nerwen was quiet about Pitchie D1 and 2 and only commented yesterDay that Mnemo's vote probably was not a wolf-on-wolf.

Boro and Eomer belong to the similar kind of a club: Boro makes a slight point of waiting more from four posters (Pitch included) but never returns to Pitch after that; Eomer says later on D1 that he could vote one of seven in his list (Pitch included) and then the next time he mentions him it's his beginning post where he says that because of the voting Pitch is more likely innocent.

Morsul says early on D1 that Pitch feels innocent and after that there is no mention of Pitch in his posts.

Not everyone mentioned here is a wolf - and not all people have time or a habit to make summaries or lists. But I'd bet a lot that there is at least one in there.


Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.


Mac has really been going to and fro with Pitchie. Or has he?

Looking at it from the Devil's advocate's perspective he starts on D1 with mild suspicion, then when others suspect Pitch as well he starts backtracking and speaking in favour of him later on to the Day. On D2 he's mildly critical of him (as the general mood was that) but doesn't like the way others suspect Pitch. On D3 he starts bringing forwards theories why Pitch is innocent (wolves choosing Inzil) and saying that with both "feeling and evidence" he's quite good...

And then toDay he says this... I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.
I can see that possibility and would hate that being true, but we have to try when we have time and while we're alive...

So now good night. See you later in the Day!

[Nerwen]

Well. I'll not deny I'm very surprised by this latest turn of events– but with hindsight, Pitch being a wolf does make sense– it would explain why Mnemo made such a weird and implausible case against him.

By the way, do you realise he started the "Mr Agreeable" thing? He said something on Day One about how "wolves often try to seem agreeable"... just as Mnemo insisted that in anyone else her own behaviour would scream "YAY I'M A WOLF!" :rolleyes:

Yeah, I thought of it after I'd voted as well. Of course we could still pull it off if we coordinate our efforts but there is the question of whether we can trust you.

Now if we'd known there was a seer you'd be trusted and protected yadda yadda and the plan would work perfectly but unfortunately in this situation, not so much.

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.

EDIT:X'd with multiple Nogs since last reading.

[satansaloser2005]

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.



Fair enough, which is why I just explained the plan and wasn't like "Guyz, we ttly gotta do dis nao! Kthnxbye!" (Sorry, I completely couldn't resist.)


Anyway back now. Gonna snag a bit of late dinner and then I'll look things over again. :)

[satansaloser2005]

No one on? This makes me sad. :(


Also, I hit 2,500 posts at some point today. Yay! :D

[Loslote]

I just got back from babysitting for three hours...so drained...will be going to bed soon. *yawns* But I will be around for a little while first.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?

[Macalaure]

What are you up to man?

Figuring out whether you're a wolf or not, of course. I seem to be the only one suspecting you, which gives you the option to not take my points very seriously, since most likely they won't lead to your lynching anyway. That's why I have to poke you a little harder. ;)

I thought we made our situation clear yesterDay.

Alright, I didn't think of that. Vote placement is out of the window. You still voted for an innocent and not for who I think is a wolf. You're not of the hook, my friend.

Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.

The devil's advocate says that doing w-on-w is safest when nobody else suspects that one. Also, you're forgetting that Pitch and Mnemo were doing some heavy exercise in it, too.

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?

This is interesting. The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil). A wolf, however, is always very aware of their record - bad conscience and all that. You're a little less suspicious to me now.

[Thinlómien]

Reading and commenting at the same time...

Loslote, please, next time you interpret my posts in an obscure way, can you put the numbers of the posts there so that I can find them and explain? I'm very annoyed at my computer and a radio channel called Groove FM and the last thing I need is a wishy washy case on me which I can't even defend myself against because it is unclearly presented. /end rant

Ok sorry but that really irked me. Now off to actually reply the stuff which I feel I should reply to or where I feel you were misrepresenting me:

Post 19: Here she switches her positions entirely. Suddenly she's suspicious of Mac, but not of Nog or Mnemo. Where'd that come from?

Mac is getting weird and jumpy. (Ha! Fourth jumpy wolf!) Nog, on the other hand, seems more reasonable.

Only the fact that Mnemo is gathering more and more suspicion is making me doubtful: like I've been telling people who never listen to me (:P), if someone who is not shouting a wolf is lynched with too much of a consensus s/he's probably an innocent.

=> representation doesn't really do justice to me. Mac's and Nog's behaviour changed a bit, so I notified it, but it doesn't mean I changed my mind about them. And I certainly was still suspicious of Mnemo, just slightly worried because so many others were feeling (or "feeling") the same way.

Post 31: Admits that Nienna was probably innocent after her death is assured; she seems to have gotten this from the fact that Nienna was, in fact, lynched? I'm not following that one.."Admits"? Huh, that sounds quite bad. And I got that from Shasta voting her; I just got this sudden feeling she must be innocent since Shasta voted her. I'm not claiming that makes sense, I just got a feeling like that and posted it. And I do suspect Shasta himself.

Err sorry Loslote, don't take this personally, I mean not to bash you as a person, or diss your merits in this game (after you got us a wolf!) but I just feel you're misrepresenting me which does not make me exactly happy. I believe you're innocent* and thus not purposefully making a case that seems really silly (at least to me) but I just think you're not tight (obviously :D) and grasping at straws.

*although there is the possibility that Los and Pitch are both wolves, but that would be really suicidial of them and easily found out, so it doesn't really make sense.

Talking of Mr. Agreeable... there's quite little he suspected and thus there's probably quite little to read from his posts - which doesn't mean we should just not check his posting as well. We should actually read closely what he has said of other people. But I think it might be even more enlightening to see how others related to him - especially when there was something like a suspicion on him which then suddenly disappeared. So how did it actually fade? I remember myself suspecting him but soon realising basically no one suspected him anymore and then I decided to focus on others - but was it just his sweet-talking as Mr. Agreeable or were there anything outside of what he said himself that triggered the change?If I have time, I will look at his and Mnemo's interactions with people so that I may form a sort of consistent picture - that would be interesting. I myself dropped my suspicions of Pitchwife after a few people had argued that his and Mnemo's interactions seemed unfellowish and I took their arguments as plausible, especially as I had gradually felt les and less bad about Pitchie. And once I had decided to consider him innocent for the time being, there was nothing that would've changed my mind...

"Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too." Lommy, when you say "him", which "him" are you referring to? Pitch or Nog? I was referring to Nog. (That was like "Nogrod has good points that make me suspect Pitch, but I still suspect Nogrod as well".)

It's a pity Loslote gets only one dream, not only for the obvious reasons, but also because I was thinking it would've been a brilliant bluff if she'd been a secret normal seer and she would've claimed to be a secret limited seer. Oh well. :D

It was a mistake to lynch Nienna, she was the easy lynch, the most obvious suspect usually turns out innocent, blah, blah, blah. I (obviously) agree it was a mistake, but really, Sally was much more like "the obvious suspect" of the Day than her if you ask me. Speaking of which, I'm still quite torn about Sally. She's weird.

Nogrod's replies to Mac are weird, but then again, Mac is weird himself. Gar. Actually, if I have time, I would like to have a look at those two. They're been playing nice quite easily and they give me bad vibes every now and then but then I forget about it always... I think they merit a closer look.

The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil).Yes, the voting record, and your general manner, popping in just for a while and using at least 50% of your energy to defending yourself. This Day has been much better, though; I liked your summary. But I still suspect you.

*needs to think about various stuff*

[Bes]

I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.

++Pitchwife

[satansaloser2005]

....

So many things look wrong with that post right there. *scratches head* Odd.


Anyway I think I'll go have a look at Bes. Not feeling the greatest today so I may be around for the rest of the Day if I don't feel like heading out to church and sundry. But for now, Bes!

[Bes]

I love how literally anything anyone here does or does not do lately makes them more suspicious. :)

[Loslote]

=> representation doesn't really do justice to me. Mac's and Nog's behaviour changed a bit, so I notified it, but it doesn't mean I changed my mind about them. And I certainly was still suspicious of Mnemo, just slightly worried because so many others were feeling (or "feeling") the same way.

So when other people started feeling the same way, you backed off. I'm sorry, but that's the way you're coming off to me...

EDIT: xed with Bes

[Loslote]

I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.

++Pitchwife

This post does look very strange.

I love how literally anything anyone here does or does not do lately makes them more suspicious. :)

Only the suspicious (or strange...) things. ;)

[Brinniel]

It bothers me that so many people (Mac, Sally, Lommy, Brinn) think I look so bad, without actually saying why. Reasons, please?
I believe I did explain my suspicions yesterDay. And then your actions at the end of the Day looks awfully sinister which is why I'm even more worried about you.

You know, I'm wondering how likely it is that Shasta is a wolf, or at least a really clever one. He could have left Nienna to die since she reached the tie number first, but he voted for her anyway. If I was a wolf in his position I'd have just let nature take its course but he didn't. Had anyone not voted at the end of the Day that might have posed a threat to a Wilwolf packmate?
Shasta was present and posting at the end of the Day before the tie occurred. If he had abstained from voting, people would've questioned it. Sure he could've said he lost track of time or something, but that would've been unsporty. So I don't think the fact that he voted at all gives any indication towards what his role may be.

If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.
Hmm...I've heard of that role before from way back in the early days of WW. I can't recall ever seeing that role used in a game since I started playing, so I think it's been years since it's been used.

[Pitchwife]

About sally's Hunter plan - nice idea, in a way. If you'd keep me alive long enough, I might even try to talk myself out of the noose. On the other hand, if you mislynch the Hunter in the meantime and they just happen to have none of the real wolves on their list at the time, I'd still die:(.
The obvious drawback is that as long as both Lottie and I remain alive, you won't be able to trust either of us (not that you can trust Lottie anyway), so you'll have to disregard everything I say. Talking to the walls of my prison cell while being pointedly ignored by the outside world would become pretty tedious after a while.

No, the logical way to proceed is quite simple. When a Seer reveals and names a wolf, you lynch the named person (unless there's a believable counter-reveal). When it turns out the Seer was lying, you lynch the Seer. Everything else is just confusing yourself and complicating your work.

And as a matter of personal taste, I prefer the noose (or the spoon;)) to going to jail. So, for the furthering of science and progress,
++Pitchwife

[Thinlómien]

Analysing everybody but myself, Loslote and Pitchspoon, partly based on my own research and partly on summaries by others...

Boromir88
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: hardly any interaction
interactions with Pitch: very little interaction to point to any direction
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Inzil, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: his slight interaction with the wolves don't point at any direction, it could be avoiding interaction or just random. His voting record could be suspected - on the two first Days it's pretty terrible and whatever Mac says, him starting the Wilwa-wagon yesterDay doesn't make him look particularily innocent. If Wilwa is a wolf, of course, then it's different, but I'm not making that assumption (yet). Anyway, his general manner seems to me very innocent, so his slightly questionable voting record (especially as he has aknowledged it himself) or the lack of interaction with known wolves (especially as that doesn't even suggest anything per se) doesn't sway it. Far more innocent than guilty, but if he keeps doing bad stuff, I might have to reconsider.

Eomer of the Rohirrim
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: granted, he put her on the lead with votes on Day1, but all his suspicions could've been wolf-on-wolf, she was good with him
interactions with Pitch: Eomer wavers on Pitch until puts him into the innocent category because of his interactions with Mnemo and then he stays there
voting record: Day1 Mnemo, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Sally
conclusions: I'm quite torn about his interactions with the known wolves. It would all be quite bold (pursuing another fellow and declaring another innocent), but the problem is that Eomer is capable of that. His voting record looks quite good, but then again it is not too good to exclude him from wolvery. He's definitely still on my suspect list, but I think I'm going to drop aggressiveness against him for now because there's nothing really incriminating in his posts.

Morsul
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: looks slightly as if Mnemo could've been casting some shoddy wolf-on-wolf suspicion on him
interactions with Pitch: some buddiness (but is that merely because they started wwing at the same time?)
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Morsul
conclusion: now this is interesting... Morsul's interactions with the wolves look a bit bad and his voting record wavers between good and bad. The Day2 vote was quite fishy, but I'm not sure a wolf-Morsul would vote himself... It's tough, I don't suspect him really but he's definitely fallen from the "tsut tsut innocent baby" category to somewhere lower...

Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)

Nogrod
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: she seems to trust him, he doesn't trust her
interactions with Pitch: goes with the popular trend of suspecting Pitch and then letting go of it
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: his interactions with the wolves don't really tell us much: they seem both innocent and lupine at the same time. I still don't like his frenzy-attack on Roa on Day1 and his vote for Mnemo didn't matter. Also if at least one of Sally&Wilwa is a wolf, he definitely bears watching. For now, I wouldn't be too aggressively for bashing him, but I'm definitely watching him.

Macalaure
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: not much, but slightly positive
interactions with Pitch: Mac flip-flops on Pitch in an eyebrow-raising manner, but Pitch gave him the third vote on Day1
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: ok, I think I'm dropping my suspicions of him for now. Giving Mnemo the fourth vote on Day2 and Pitch trying to get him lynched speak for his innocence quite clearly, whatever fishiness there is here or there.

sally
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: rather fishy friendliness and banter (although as we all know they are RL friends)
interactions with Pitch: slight suspicion from her towards him, he votes her on Day3
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Lottie, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: if there wasn't Pitch's vote for Sally (like Mac said he could've voted Nienna based on what he had said before), I would be very very worried of Sally - trying to save Mnemo and having wolf-on-wolf like suspicions of Pitch - but now I guess I have to consider her quite innocent.

Nerwen
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: low
interactions with Mnemo: she did make a case against her
interactions with Pitch: she considered him innocent based on Mnemo's guilt
voting record: Day1 Mac (didn't count), Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: her consistent suspicion against Mnemo looks good, exonerating Pitch based on that doesn't (although half of the village did that). Looks more innocent than guilty, but I don't like it that people take her innocence for granted.

Bes
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: not much
interactions with Pitch: some mutual suspicion
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 no vote, Day3 Lottie
conclusion: well, this doesn't sway my opinion to any direction. Generally he seems so confused that if he's a wolf I think he's fellows would've already helped him out and clarified the rules for him.

Shasta
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: he defended her
interactions with Pitch: not much except some late-emergent suspicion against him on Day3
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Nerwen, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: it really looks quite bad, but possibly too bad to be bad.

wilwa
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: Wilwa defended Mnemo when the situation was really open
interactions with Pitch: she almost voted him but sticked to her suspicion of Boro
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Boro, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: I can totally understand why people suspect her, it indeed looks quite bad. The only problem with suspecting her is the same that I have with suspecting Shasta: it looks too obvious.

So...

innocent
Bes
Mac

innocentish
Boro
Nerwen
Sally

in the middle
Eomer
Morsul
Nogrod

suspiciousish
- (interesting...)

suspicious
Brinn
Wilwa
Shasta


edit: xed with the five last posts

[Thinlómien]

So when other people started feeling the same way, you backed off. I'm sorry, but that's the way you're coming off to me...I didn't back off, but I started to doubt. That's true and I don't deny it. However, if I had been a wolf who didn't want to sacrifice a fellow Mnemo, I would've been awfully short-sighted to give her the second vote early on and suspect her relatively loudly and then start having vague doubts and turning my boat later... It's really just what I said: it doesn't bode well if the village agress too much about lynching somebody because then it means there's no one who wants him/her to live ie probably no fellow wolves ergo s/he's probably innocent. I'm glad that wasn't the case with the Mnemo suspicion, but it looked like that at that point.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry about disappearing; my internet died. :(

Anyway, I'm very confused. Every time I think I've pinned down the pack(tm) I see someone else who looks suspicious to me. Gah!

My list at the moment. Sorry if it's not very well-defined.

Guilty
Pitch

Very suspicious
Wilwa
Shasta

Suspicious
Lommie (bordering on the very suspicious, but I kept my above list to two people....she's interchangable with the other two but that's how I'm feeling now)
Brinn (also very close to the above list, but not enough to be at the top)
Bes (but I'm willing to accept that it's just because he's new)

A bit suspicious
Boro (because of how he flipped on me so hard....other than that just hunching)
Morsul (Meh....I'm not comfortable with his Nilp move....could have been to make sure we wouldn't kill him, but I don't know)

Could go either way (meaning I need to look at them because I can't decide)
Nerwen
Eomer
Nog
Mac

Innocent
Lottie
Sally


I think a big problem with this list is that I had to keep looking at it in order to make sure I had everyone. Which means I'm ignoring people. I hate that.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and I'd make a list which allows for Lottie being a liar (who isn't bussing her packmate Pitch for whatever reason) but I'm just too lazy/busy to bother. Hopefully it won't be the case anyway, because I want to save my energy for better stuff I've to do. I'll be back in a few minutes.

[Pitchwife]

Lommy, while you're on, this is the moment to tell you that marine biologist's joke I promised you before we set out, lest I forget. (If you don't get it, ask a Brit to explain.)

The squid had a few too many last night and is having a huge hangover. His brain (or whatever squids use instead) hurts, he's feeling squeemish, he can't control his tentacles properly, he's having a really wretched day.
Swimming by comes a dolphin, he says to the squid: "Poor you, you look really bad, but I tell you what, all you need is some fresh water. Hang on to my fin, I'll take you up near the surface where there's more oxygen - that'll do you good."
So the squid hangs on to the dolphin's fin, and the dolphin takes him up near the surface where they meet a shark. Says the dolphin to the shark, "Hi mate, here's the sick squid I owe you!"

[Thinlómien]

That was a silly joke, Pitch. :rolleyes::p

[Thinlómien]

++Pitch

[satansaloser2005]

*snickers* Maybe we should keep around.



Nah. :Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is interesting. The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil).

I believe I did explain my suspicions yesterDay. And then your actions at the end of the Day looks awfully sinister which is why I'm even more worried about you.

*snickers* I just can't win. :p Let's look at things this way, since apparently what makes me evil is my vote for Nienna. I'll ask the same thing I did about my Nerwen vote, when people jumped on that - since when is it wolfish to vote someone you suspect? Nienna's voting record was even worse than mine at that point, having voted to save Mnemo twice. I'm sorry she was innocent, but I'm not sorry I voted her.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Note: I'm going to be on the road for an hour. I should be back about half an hour before deadline. In case I'm not -

++Pitch

[Boromir88]

That ran a bit later than I thought. I'm going to vote now:

++Pitch

in case I can't get back here before the DL.

[Thinlómien]

Where's everybody? It's not much more than hour until the DL and while this might not be the most exciting Day ever, this is kind of lame...

Hmm. What if everybody states who would they vote if Pitch wasn't an option? I think that would be a good idea, because it would a) force people to actually think a bit more and b) force everybody to make a statement. And this would be like a real vote, so stuff like "I'd vote Roa or trom" should be forbidden.

I, for one, I'm going to do that, but not yet because I'm still quite torn between Wilwa, Shasta and Brinn.


edit: xed with Boro

[satansaloser2005]

Where's everybody? It's not much more than hour until the DL and while this might not be the most exciting Day ever, this is kind of lame...

Hmm. What if everybody states who would they vote if Pitch wasn't an option? I think that would be a good idea, because it would a) force people to actually think a bit more and b) force everybody to make a statement. And this would be like a real vote, so stuff like "I'd vote Roa or trom" should be forbidden.

I, for one, I'm going to do that, but not yet because I'm still quite torn between Wilwa, Shasta and Brinn.


edit: xed with Boro

Not an entirely bad idea. My vote preference would have followed the order given in my earlier suspicion list, so more or less Wilwa, Shasta, or Lommie (with Brinn as a fourth).

[Pitchwife]

What I don't get is why the wolves thought this whole Seer-reveal thing necessary, or even a good idea; it seems pretty risqué, and it'll put Lottie in a tight spot toMorrow. You might think Greenie's death would be quite enough to frame me, if they were planning to do that, as she'd been suspecting me for quite a while. And why me? It's not like I was a big threat to them, or am I overlooking something? Very puzzling...

[Nogrod]

What I don't get is why the wolves thought this whole Seer-reveal thing necessary, or even a good idea; it seems pretty risqué, and it'll put Lottie in a tight spot toMorrow. Assuming your innocence - for the argument's sake here - I would agree that if Lottie is a wolf it would have been a bad idea indeed. And I can't see a reason for her to do it if she were a wolf.

But there is this secret role which Lottie probably is. What kind of role it is, is another matter. Lottie has told us she's a birthday dreamer, but that's actually all we have. It might be she's a cobbler of a kind, or a false seer (I've heard of that kind of role as well: there the "false-seer" thinks s/he's a seer but gets wrong information - but I think in a game with a false seer there is also a "right seer"), or whatever weird thing Legate has come up with.

I mean it can even be that Lottie has been what she is from the very beginning and now just tells us her powers work on the Night to come. But of that we have also only her word.

But however it is, we should see what Pitch is first and then act on that.

Talking of which...

++ Pitchie

[satansaloser2005]

Assuming your innocence - for the argument's sake here - I would agree that if Lottie is a wolf it would have been a bad idea indeed. And I can't see a reason for her to do it if she were a wolf.

But there is this secret role which Lottie probably is. What kind of role it is, is another matter. Lottie has told us she's a birthday dreamer, but that's actually all we have. It might be she's a cobbler of a kind, or a false seer (I've heard of that kind of role as well: there the "false-seer" thinks s/he's a seer but gets wrong information - but I think in a game with a false seer there is also a "right seer"), or whatever weird thing Legate has come up with.

I mean it can even be that Lottie has been what she is from the very beginning and now just tells us her powers work on the Night to come. But of that we have also only her word.

But however it is, we should see what Pitch is first and then act on that.

Talking of which...

++ Pitchie

My thoughts exactly. If it is a wolf move to do this elaborate reveal I'd go with Lottie (who either spearheaded it or was talked into it), Bes (the new kid), and either Mac or Boro (who are just mad enough to try something like this). Other than that I'd say Lottie could be some sort of something and could be telling the truth but twisting it, etc. But we'll know nothing until we lynch someone.

[Brinniel]

And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.
Yeah, I pretty much expected you would say that considering you even hinted at it yesterDay. At the time, a lot of people though my defense was a wolf-on-wolf one, but then you put that out there. Makes me wonder if that's because you already knew Nienna would be revealed innocent upon death and you're trying to keep suspicion cast on me. I won't deny that defending Nienna is something I'd do as a wolf as I have done it before, but that is not the case this time. I'm just an innocent who made a valid point yesterDay. I was getting quite frustrated that everyone was knocking me down for defending her, so I'm quite relieved I was actually right as it makes sticking my neck out for her worthwhile.

I actually seem to find Lommy rather innocent in most games, but this time that is not so which makes me wonder if there's a good reason for that. It wouldn't be the first time I've detected a Lommywolf.

Let's look at things this way, since apparently what makes me evil is my vote for Nienna. I'll ask the same thing I did about my Nerwen vote, when people jumped on that - since when is it wolfish to vote someone you suspect? Nienna's voting record was even worse than mine at that point, having voted to save Mnemo twice. I'm sorry she was innocent, but I'm not sorry I voted her.
Actually, it's not the vote for Nienna itself that I find suspicious, but the things you said at the end of the Day which led up to it.

[Nogrod]

Add-on to the former speculation.

If Pitch turns out wolf as it looks like, we can't afford leaving Lottie to be among the last players anyway. I mean we have no hurry to lynch her like toMorrow but the only reason a wolf might have tried this kind of a trick would have been trying to sway us into thinking she must be innocent beyond any reasonable doubt (and yes she was getting the heat there earlier so maybe a panic-solution?). Anyway, with only her word on her role I think we have not that condition with us.

[Brinniel]

I need to get ready to go out, so I might as well do this before I forget:

++Pitchwife

[satansaloser2005]

Add-on to the former speculation.

If Pitch turns out wolf as it looks like, we can't afford leaving Lottie to be among the last players anyway. I mean we have no hurry to lynch her like toMorrow but the only reason a wolf might have tried this kind of a trick would have been trying to sway us into thinking she must be innocent beyond any reasonable doubt (and yes she was getting the heat there earlier so maybe a panic-solution?). Anyway, with only her word on her role I think we have not that condition with us.

Well hopefully the wolves would take care of her, though at the same time I can't see why they would bother right away, as she's not a continuous threat and even if she was proven correct she wouldnt' be completely trusted. They could just leave her be.


Heh. I totally had this thought last night. Lottie!wolf realizes she's in deep crap, comes out as this one-hit wonder seer, busses Pitch, and after that she's safe. The wolves obviously aren't going to touch her, and since she only gets one dream all game she can claim that as the reason; why would the wolves bother killing a useless seer when there's a perfectly good ranger to get rid of? So she could theoretically just float through the game as a known innocent until the last Day where she turns out to be a wolf and she dies. I would think of it in her position so I don't see why Lottie wouldn't try it.

Again, hoping I'm wrong, but putting it out there anyway. It'd be a good scheme.


EDIT: x'd with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Well people, don't forget there'd still be the real special role who could counter-claim...

Yeah, I pretty much expected you would say that considering you even hinted at it yesterDay. Hinted? What do you mean? I don't remember thinking that way or saying anything like that.

[Pitchwife]

Like a wolf out of hell I'll be lynched when the Evening comes
When the Day is over like a wolf out of hell I'll be gone gone gone
Like a wolf out of hell I'll be lynched when the Evening comes
But when the Night has come
And the stars are out
And the moon is shining through
Then like a spectre born of guilty conscience
My ghost will come haunting you

[Nogrod]

Again, hoping I'm wrong, but putting it out there anyway. It'd be a good scheme.Well that's exactly what I was thinking. So rest assured, the wolves probably will not kill Lottie but leave her around for us to decide on. And it's reasonable for them. The Day we lynch Lottie we're not lynching one of them. So in a sense they would get three clean kills in a row (N-D-N) and would be able to breathe freely for one Day.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, I've been unavailable today so sorry about that. I'll catch up with everything tomorrow (if work is quiet ;) ) and be able to play again if I'm still around.

++PITCH

Not sure what to make of Loslote. Interesting to read the accusations between my three other suspects, Wilwa, Shasta and Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Well that's exactly what I was thinking. So rest assured, the wolves probably will not kill Lottie but leave her around for us to decide on. And it's reasonable for them. The Day we lynch Lottie we're not lynching one of them. So in a sense they would get three clean kills in a row (N-D-N) and would be able to breathe freely for one Day.

I see what you did there. I think. But I hope not. Erm, anyway....


Also, good point from Lommie about another possible secret role (or rather the proper one if Lottie's lying) being able to reveal later.


Harrumph. ToDay was no fun. Then again, a Day where I'm spared is always a good Day, so I'll take what I can get. I'll make sure to get a look in at Bes, but this afternoon's simply too busy so I'll save some time later tonight to do it.

[Brinniel]

Hinted? What do you mean? I don't remember thinking that way or saying anything like that.
Well, you suggested it:

If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna.

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.
Makes me actually wonder if Brinn's a wolf and Nienna's an innocent...

[satansaloser2005]

Eleven minutes left. I wonder how the votes are coming?

Oh wait.:Merisu:


Anyone not voted?

[Macalaure]

Nothing really new, but I can't find anything to comment about.

Currently, I don't suspect
Lottie, Boro, Nerwen

I don't suspect very much
Lommy (I used to have an eerie feeling about Lommy, but it's getting better. Good analysis: a lot of stuff in a concise way... if only everybody did it that way ;) ), Bes, Sally, Eomer, Morsul

I'm really not sure about
Brinn (unless I missed it, you haven't commented on my comment about you voting Sally instead of Wilwa), Nogrod, Shasta

I suspect
Pitch, Wilwa


Oh, and

++Pitchwife

Hmm. What if everybody states who would they vote if Pitch wasn't an option?

Wilwa, obviously.

[Thinlómien]

Well, you suggested it:Oh yes, that's true, I had forgotten. But the tone of that post of yours just gave me that kind of feeling, but I wouldn't have ended up voting Nienna if I had thought of that being the most probable scenario.

edit: xed with Sally and Mac

[Thinlómien]

Oh yes the DL is near... I think I would vote Wilwa too. Shasta would be a good option and I'm backing away on Brinn a bit because her being sort of offended now doesn't look wolvish... but because I keep putting her and Wilwa into the same THEKaGory (;)) in my head, I'm sort of convinced one of them (at least) has to be bad and I'm leaning on Wilwa...

[Nogrod]

Then like a spectre born of guilty conscience
My ghost will come haunting youWhose guilty conscience might you be referring to Mr. Poet-Agreeable? :)

But if you're an innocent, we'll lynch Lottie toMorrow to be sure. If she then turns out to be just a cobbler, then bad for us (but wonderful play by Lottie!).


On the question of who else to lynch if there wasn't this Lottie - Pitchie situation going on...

I don't know. Something bugs me with Mac. Just looking at his latest... so when I reminded him of our logistical problems yesterDay when he had suspected the timing of my vote he says: Alright, I didn't think of that. Vote placement is out of the window. You still voted for an innocent and not for who I think is a wolf. You're not of the hook, my friend.Now what kind of suspicion is this?

If we should suspect anyone who has voted for an innocent I'm afraid we should suspect everyone... well, that's actually what we have to do, but using that as an argument on anyone's particular suspiciousness is pretty poor. Not to talk of the latter part: if you don't vote for the one(s) I think is a wolf then you must be a wolf? :rolleyes:

Maybe Mac is just short of time, under RL pressure or something... In #663 I gave some reasons to suspect him and will not repeat them here.

But to be honest: with this many people left I would not have voted or called for voting Mac toDay. Without this Pitch-issue I might have suggested we checked out Bes or Morsul now when we can afford it. Or well, Lottie - if she hadn't "revealed" that is (eg. if there would not be this whole case we have).

But I don't know. It's hard to say what one would have done without things unravelling this way. I might have taken a closer look to Brinn, or Boro, or... and who knows what I would have thought then?

[satansaloser2005]

Is it just me or is Nerwen eerily quiet this game? As in, I know she's been posting and such, but every time I go to make a list I keep leaving her off because I forget she's playing/still alive. Anyone else getting that vibe?


EDIT: x'd with the two living Finns

[satansaloser2005]

Oh yes the DL is near... I think I would vote Wilwa too. Shasta would be a good option and I'm backing away on Brinn a bit because her being sort of offended now doesn't look wolvish... but because I keep putting her and Wilwa into the same THEKaGory (;)) in my head, I'm sort of convinced one of them (at least) has to be bad and I'm leaning on Wilwa...

Heh. Loved it. :D


Yeah, me too. Of course since I can't help suspecting you I'm concerned at how much we're agreeing. I'll have to take another look at you as well, because you're looking quite innocent recently so you may have slipped down my list a bit (not because we're agreeing, but just your general manner and stuff).

[wilwarin538]

Sorry, church this morning, then I get home to computer issues. :rolleyes: More from me next Day.

++ Pitchwife

[Pitchwife]

Hey! Another unanimous vote Day!
Goodbye and good luck, my dear comrades. Sorry I couldn't be more help.
- Mr Agreeable signing out

[Thinlómien]

Is it just me or is Nerwen eerily quiet this game? As in, I know she's been posting and such, but every time I go to make a list I keep leaving her off because I forget she's playing/still alive. Anyone else getting that vibe?I'm not getting any vibes because she's under my radar... so yes, I guess. :rolleyes:


edit: xed with the three above

[satansaloser2005]

Hey! Another unanimous vote Day!
Goodbye and good luck, my dear comrades. Sorry I couldn't be more help.
- Mr Agreeable signing out

Goodbye, precious, although I'm glad you couldn't be more help.

And thanks, Lommie. I was afraid it really was just me. Maybe she's getting ready to help with Christmas?

[Macalaure]

In #663 I gave some reasons to suspect him and will not repeat them here.

I missed to comment on them, but there really wasn't much to say. You listed things I did and I can do nothing but to admit that I did them. You didn't say anything that I had to defend myself against.

[Brinniel]

(unless I missed it, you haven't commented on my comment about you voting Sally instead of Wilwa)
None of the top contenders were really that preferable to me. wilwa has completely slipped under my radar and I didn't feel one way or the other about her, so I didn't think it'd be appropriate to vote her. Sally I was feeling iffy about at the time; I did say I'd rather not vote her since I didn't have a strong reason for it and needed to look at her more closely, but I would vote her if it came between Nienna and Sally. If I'd seen Nienna's vote I'd probably have voted wilwa instead, but we obviously crossed. ToDay I'm feeling better about Sally; she's giving off innocent vibes now, though I seem to be going back and forth on her.

[Nogrod]

I'm quite confused with Shasta, Wilwa and Sally whom everyone seems to suspect. I can see some of it and not see the other parts. If I'm alive toMorrow I will try to delve into those three as well.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

DEADLINE

Stop posting, people. Pitchwife is lynched, being a... Werewolf.

Narration coming up hopefully soon, meanwhile, Night folks can start doing their stuff.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It was a most peculiar turn of events which caused us to execute our chief marine biologist.

Looking back, I do not know whether it was the growing unrest among us or if it was something else that caused us to abandon our scientific principles and follow the young girl's voice. It was on the very day when we have descended into the mysterious cavern that she claimed she had a vision of our marine biologist transforming into a wolf. She was so resolute in her claims, I am wondering myself why we have not dismissed her words as another manifestation of the stress of the previous days... yet for some strange reason, we all seemed to feel that we should trust her.

That said, I have known her for a long time - as long as I have known her father, sir Michael, who has been generously funding many of the earlier projects of me and my colleagues. Sir Michael Bishop was a rich and very open-handed man when it came to financing scientific projects, and ever since he inherited his sister's husband's funds after her death, his generosity knew no bounds. Yet his daughter has never been of the scholarly type - she joined us, I suspect, mainly because of the adventure and a young lady's zeal for things like polar bears, whales and things related to ecology - a peculiar trait among many young people of this age. And indeed, her presence has been sometimes uncomfortable to some of the more professionaly-oriented expedition members. Yet this time, she came with her esoterically sounding claims - and we concurred.

And our feelings have paid off. This time, we could already notice the changes in the anathomy of our marine biologist just when we turned to him. Now it was unanimous - and as the gunshots echoed through the frozen landscape, our ex-marine biologist stumbled and fell into the crevice opening behind him, the very one our young assistant had marked earlier on.

And so it was partially for the reason to see what had happened to our marine biologist that we have decided to descend into that dark place. We wanted to see that he is dead, we wanted to verify what we have been imagining: we wanted to see his motionless body lying down there in the shape of a wolf.

The fissure was wide enough for us to descend down there, and armed with electric torches we entered a cavern far larger than the crack above would have indicated. Yet the first thing we have noticed upon our descent was that the body of our marine biologist was not there. It took us a while until the flashlights stumbled upon what we have been looking for - tufts of dark fur and trail of blood leading away - towards a black entrance yawning in the northern part of the cavern.

Excited, but somehow reluctant at the same time, we cautiously followed the trail. It was clear now what our marine biologist was, yet we wanted to find the final confirmation of his fate. And something was also telling us that by following his path, we may get closer to unveiling the mystery of this strange prison of ice.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember

GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot on her way back to the ship on Day 3 (innocent)
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company, killed by Werewolf on Night 4 (innocent)
Pitchwife - marine biologist - unambiguously executed by the expedition on Day 4 (Werewolf)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

We could not have foreseen yet the vastness of the cavernous maze that we have entered. The corridor through which we have been following the trail of the thing that once used to be our marine biologist was but a crack in the wall, wide enough for us to walk through in a line, with uneven floor and walls of basaltic rock. It was seemingly but one of the many shafts piercing the heart of the island, a feature quite common inside such land masses of volcanic origin, but unforeseen by explorers such as Vize and Schmidt, who have likely been to these parts of the Arctic. The fact that this cavern was free of ice and water implied that the complex - however likely descending under the sea level - never surfaced with any of its many shafts except at the very top, the once ice-corked crevasse through which we have entered.

We have had enough electric torches with enough power for many hours of walk, however, we have decided to save the batteries as much as we can and thus only three at a time have been lit. We were all curious how the creature we followed could see in this underground darkness - yet this has been once again the source of the debate mainly for our two remaining biologists. Meanwhile, the rest of us have been following the trail and eventually, we were forced to make a decision. The way in front of us split into two and now we could not find any trails of blood at the crossing. That meant we could either give up, continue blindly through one of the corridors or split. We were not too keen on either of these options, but we did not want to leave without the confirmation of our former crewmember's fate. Eventually, we decided to split and to walk just a short distance through both of the corridors to see if we can find any further trail in either of them. Our pilot would remain at the crossing and wait.

These have been the two ill-fated mistakes we have made. The first one we realised when an inhuman scream came from the crossing where we have left our pilot, and running back, we could not find anything more than his mutilated body lying on the icy stone floor in the cold light of our electric torches. There was no trace of the attacker anymore, yet we could be sure that even in the darkness nobody got past us.

The second mistake, as I see now clearly, was to continue in our foolish pursuit into the depths of that forbidding cavernous maze at all.


LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember

GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot on her way back to the ship on Day 3 (innocent)
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company, killed by Werewolf on Night 4 (innocent)
Pitchwife - marine biologist - unambiguously executed by the expedition on Day 4 (Werewolf)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot - murdered in the icy darkness on Night 5 (innocent)

Day 5 starts. Night PMers stop, all people talk. You know how it goes.

[satansaloser2005]

Wow. Definitely not what I'd expected.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Eomer? Not who I'd have expected. I was going to look at him today, too... well, I can still look at my two top suspects, Mac and Boro, and so I shall.

Edit: X'd with Sally. How dare you steal my phrasing! :p

[satansaloser2005]

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?


ETA: Neener neener, my precious. Your kung fu is not strong.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?

Well, both, but in this case more like the former. Sorry, corrected now. :)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?


ETA: Neener neener, my precious. Your kung fu is not strong.

ESP beats kung fu any day, my little Labrador [/theatre reference]. :p

Or the Force, for that matter.

[Thinlómien]

I'm surprised too, to be honest.

With his amount of gathered suspicion, I think they thought him gifted. Or then they were being tricksy.


edit: xed with mod and Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

Well, both, but in this case more like the former. Sorry, corrected now. :)

Heh. Okay; I just didn't want to jump to conclusions if it was an ommission or let it slide if it wasn't, so I decided to ask.


Biggest. Headache. Ever. I'll be taking a nap after work and then I'll get back over here.

[Boromir88]

*shocked*

What's with the shock? Maybe he was looking slightly suspicious, but I doubt he was going to be a serious suspect for a while...with all the other suspicious looking people out here.

I'm kind of surprised it wasn't Lottie, but it's not all that surprising if she only gets one dream. The wolves are risking keeping a known innocent around, and trying to trick us into thinking she's a wolf, because she's not dead. Although, I'm not sure it's a good idea, because I'm not falling for it, as far as I'm concerned Lottie's a known innocent. If she only gets one dream, it looks like they will try to take out bigger threats.

I'm still feeling good about Nerwen, Mac, and Nog. I'm not sure about sally or Morsul. I need to take closer looks at Lommy, Brinn, and Bes (based on the Day Nienna was lynched - it might not have been the worst loss to suffer, but there was a lot of tricky looking behavior towards the DL) and Shasta + wilwa remain my top suspects.

[Nogrod]

Actually I was not that surprised... At least I can't right now remember anyone suspecting him heavily yesterDay - did someone even mention him?

How come you say he was so much suspected Lommy? I have quite a different view of it.

But be what it may, yesterDay's voting probably is kind of a store of mainly futile information. :(

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

Well, she gave us a wolf and I would say we should search for the remaining two elsewhere for a Day or two... but if we don't get them we should lynch her before the numbers start evening out. Just to be on the safe side.

Okay. The good news: the deaths are 6:2 (of which two are resignments, so actually 4:2 gamingwise) but we're having still 10:2. Pretty good ratios, I'd say. Juts keeping with this ratio we win. And even if we had help there looking back we now have all the material to read to guide us further.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, but some people are suspected even less...

like Bes or Nerwen...

or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking :D or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

So, what am I trying to say?

That I'm surprised Eomer died, because I would've assumed to find Bes, Nerwen or Mac to be found dead, or possibly Nog or Boro (or Sally actually) or even Loslote. Eomer is one of the ones who I thought is certainly not dying, I would've seen my own death as more probable than his (at least some people think I'm innocent while more or less everyone seems to be suspecting Eomer to some degree).

And that the slightly prolonged survival of all us "veteran loudmouths" makes me wonder if we others are alive mostly/partly for cover. That has happened many times before. I'm far from convinced that this is true, but it makes me more wary of my fellow "veteran loudmouths" ie Boro, Mac and Nog.

*is making process in learning to phrase things more clearly* :D


edit: xed with Nogrod

[Boromir88]

I would also like to point out, before heading out to dinner, Greenie the day before, Eomer last night...looks like they're going for the ones who voted Mnemo twice. This leaves Lommy still alive, either the wolves have deemed you easier to turn suspicion against, you could be next, or you're a wolf trying to make yourself look better.

[Thinlómien]

How come you say he was so much suspected Lommy? I have quite a different view of it.I thought he was more or less on everybody's guilty list, although hardly ever the top suspect...? I can't recall anyone saying he's probably innocent, but I recall many people suspecting him at least a little.

I would also like to point out, before heading out to dinner, Greenie the day before, Eomer last night...looks like they're going for the ones who voted Mnemo twice. This leaves Lommy still alive, either the wolves have deemed you easier to turn suspicion against, you could be next, or you're a wolf trying to make yourself look better.Interesting thoughts. I never thought of it that way. But I doubt I'm going to be next after you said that (...thanks? :D). And I hardly need suspicion "turned" against me since already quite a few villagers suspect me - but if I'm right about what people said about Eomer yesterDay, it doesn't make much sense either. And if I was a wolf, I think that would be a rather stupid to make myself look better because reading your post it seems to make me look "worse" (at least from my own perspective, but I'm the only one who knows my role so maybe it affects other people differently, who knows).

[Morsul the Dark]

here and reading a lot to catch up on...

[Nogrod]

the slightly prolonged survival of all us "veteran loudmouths" makes me wonder if we others are alive mostly/partly for cover. That has happened many times before. I'm far from convinced that this is true, but it makes me more wary of my fellow "veteran loudmouths" ie Boro, Mac and Nog.I have been thinking about the same... although I might add Nerwen to the pile...

I try to go to sleep a bit earlier today as I'm in Bronchitis - but as a result of that I'm having a day off from work tomorrow and might use some of the time to actually read and post here more (sadly I have to read a bunch of exams as well even if I have a sick-leave).

I'll stick around a while though if I can come up with any good idea where to look at before going to sleep.

[wilwarin538]

Eomer doesn't surprise me too much, I don't see him as having had that much suspicion, maybe more general but I don't think it was to the point where he was at much risk of being lynched. What Boro said about all those who voted twice for Mnemo being the kill choices makes sense. And what Lommy said about her suprise that Mac and Nog aren't dead yet, I see what you're saying, but perhaps this was on purpose? The wolves may just want us to think to ourselves "Wow, what kind of dumb wolves would keep those guys alive this long, they much be guilty", in order for us to waste our lynches on useful players. Though I'm not saying it's not possible they're guilty, just that it isn't really all that surprising that their still alive.

About Lottie, it does seem likely that she is indeed innocent, since she was right about Pitch and no one else has come forward about having the special role. BUT, there is still a chance that she is a sneaky wolf who gave up a fellow to make herself look good, and that the person who really does have the secret role either won't reveal because their gift has not come into effect yet, or they can't reveal, or they're dead and there role just wasn't revealed. So there are a large number of possibilities, and not all of them point towards her innocence. Therefore we should eventually lynch her if a few days go by with no success, just on the chance that she wasn't being all that truthful.

Sorry about my disappearing act yesterday, computer issues made it tough for me to come on. I should be around far more toDay, in between study times.

x'ed with Nog

[Morsul the Dark]

Taking Nienna's approach no long quotes here!:D
Bes

Bes 39 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617285&postcount=39)
Doesn't want anyone to vote... why? Although we now know the votes were basically just a Formality...

then a bunch of posts like "Here and Reading..." "Sorry not on too much..."

Bes 156 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617436&postcount=156) Take Inzil's arguments and votes Mac...

Bes 252 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617643&postcount=252)
Admits to backpedalling... Newbie mistake or cleverly playing Newbie card (I did it my first game...)

Bes 262 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617653&postcount=262) Makes a summary of Mac's post... maybe to defend her vote for him though she earlier admitted to not thinking it through sounds like misdirection to me.

Bes 416 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617850&postcount=416) Makes a reference to not being around That phrase always strikes me as an odd one always a slight "I'm not a wolf I Promise" statement.

Bes 470 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618053&postcount=470) Pulls a Mac, "Good Points against me" then goes on to denounce Lotie's reveal.

Bes 512 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618118&postcount=512) Continues on Lottie and votes for her... at least she's consistent...

A couple of newbie posts follow... I think she may be playing that card to its full potential.

Bes 671 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618336&postcount=671) Why would you try not to vote Pitch?

Lastly: Bes 673 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618338&postcount=673) Everything someone says or doesn't say makes them suspicious... including you Bes... Including you

[Nogrod]

Hey Morsul, I think Bes is a he... (not the first time in this game):)

But good notions - the last ones I mean. He really could be seen trying to avoid the inevitable...

[Bes]

Taking Nienna's approach no long quotes here!:D
Bes

Bes 39 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617285&postcount=39)
Doesn't want anyone to vote... why? Although we now know the votes were basically just a Formality...

then a bunch of posts like "Here and Reading..." "Sorry not on too much..."

Bes 156 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617436&postcount=156) Take Inzil's arguments and votes Mac...

Bes 252 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617643&postcount=252)
Admits to backpedalling... Newbie mistake or cleverly playing Newbie card (I did it my first game...)

Bes 262 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617653&postcount=262) Makes a summary of Mac's post... maybe to defend her vote for him though she earlier admitted to not thinking it through sounds like misdirection to me.

Bes 416 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617850&postcount=416) Makes a reference to not being around That phrase always strikes me as an odd one always a slight "I'm not a wolf I Promise" statement.

Bes 470 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618053&postcount=470) Pulls a Mac, "Good Points against me" then goes on to denounce Lotie's reveal.

Bes 512 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618118&postcount=512) Continues on Lottie and votes for her... at least she's consistent...

A couple of newbie posts follow... I think she may be playing that card to its full potential.

Bes 671 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618336&postcount=671) Why would you try not to vote Pitch?

Lastly: Bes 673 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618338&postcount=673) Everything someone says or doesn't say makes them suspicious... including you Bes... Including you

39: A question is not the same as a desire. People harp on this post a lot, and at this point it's starting to make me giggle. People explained why there's reliably a vote every day, even if not everyone gets a vote in, and it made sense. You may have noticed I voted that Day.

262: Just a note, male. Short, monosyllabic handles tend to be difficult to read gender cues from, I know.

671: Because I still didn't feel right about Lottie; I had every reason, from my own point of view, to suspect Lottie of mischief. A lot of people still do suspect Lottie for that reveal, I'm noticing. Of course I'm going to feel crap about potentially lynching an innocent. We know now that Pitch was a wolf, but at the time my and several other votes were "So, this person is kind of suspicious, and Lottie says she's a Seer. Let's throw him/her under the bus as a litmus test for her sincerity." That would have looked just lovely for me if he/she turned out to be innocent, wouldn't it?

673: Yes, that would be the point of the post.

I don't really feel a need/desire to correct the other portions of the post analysis.

Edit: Crossed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

Bes! I think the most important post by you was this vote-post for Lottie you made:
As usual, I don't have much time today. I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.It is a valid thing to question Lottie's revealment - I did it and some others did it. And I had already voiced my suspicion that the wolves might wish to make a "free kill" making the ranger protect one of their own... That's all fine and dandy. Even if I don't quite understand what you mean by:

then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

If you mean a Night kill instead of "lynching" I might understand but otherwise I lost track with you there.

But what is important here IMO is that we just couldn't waste the opportunity to check whether what Lottie said was right. Actually we could have lynched her first and see what role she was given and then lynch Pitch toDay, but why to do it that way? If Lottie has the secret role the wolves would like to gamble on that as they wouldn't know what the role is - if she was a cobbler for instance, then the suspicions laid by her on Pitchie could be downplayed the next Day. So from an ordo perspective checking Pitch first was a clear marching order.

Yes, I do not say that Pitch being a wolf cleared Lottie. On the contrary. It might be one of these tragic stories where a community must check one of it's helpers just to be sure before the end - to be sure a sneaky wolf didn't fool us. But that's a different question.

What I sees suspicious of you Bes is that the way you wanted it to go was the way the wolves would have wanted it to go; to lynch Lottie first. I see no reason an innocent would wish to suggest that order but could see the wolves to wish that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just a thought - the main reason Lottie dreamt of Pitch was the fact that Pitch was pushing for her dream to be used on Bes. After the wolf-on-wolfery between Pitch and Mnemo, I'm not sure Pitch would set up yet another of his comrades that way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mac:

Let's document Mac's thoughts on Pitch.

#27 - "innocent feel"
#57 - Possible suspicious comment regarding the Boroversy
#112 - from "innocent" to "unsure"
#139 - has Pitch in the "I would like to avoid voting" category
#155 - flops back to "innocent"
#217 - would like to take a closer look at Pitch. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Mnemo say the exact same thing? :rolleyes:
#274 - uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch as others are now doing.
#313 - back to thinking Pitch innocent.
#460 - vacillates on Pitch, again finding him innocent due to Inzil's death (huh?)
#481 - still feels good about Pitch here.

This is the main reason I suspect Mac. I'm unsure how I'll feel about him once I've taken a closer look at Mac by himself, but until I manage that he's a possible vote for me.

On Boro:

Even though if there are 4 of them, this is a large group of scientists, and scheming to lose a wolf on the 1st-lynch makes wolf-on-wolf less likely.

Then, later down in the same post:

I'm calling yesterday Day 2, and the previous Day 1. On Day 1, Mnemo acquired 3-votes, so it is likely they all recognized she was going to be in possible danger. So, going into Day 2, even though there was no lynch, she and her buddies knew she could be a viable lynch. Therefor, I find it more likely that a wolf could have voted for her, or applied suspicion on her at some point in the day, in an attempt to make him/herself look better.

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

If you weren't all that suspicious of Inzil in the first place, then why jump on Nerwen's vote?


Putting words in my mouth, are you? :p I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Then his Day 2 vote is suspicious, not in wilwa's way, but by adding in another name to the pot a Shasta-wolf could have been hoping Mnemo would have gotten lost in the mix of names.

I was suspicious ofNerwen, so I voted for her. I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

2. She disclosed details about the role. When wolves make a fake reveal how much detail do you think they want to get into? That's rhetorical, but I'll say it anyway, as little as possible.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.


In hindsight, what I have on Boro isn't as bad as I thought it was - mainly his contradictory statements about Mnemo and wolf-on-wolfery, and his vote for Inzil over Eomer (both innocent). Still, he's a suspect of mine.


I'm also suspicious of Wilwa, but I'm afraid that might be groupthink. I'll do my best to take a look at her as well.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No one around but me? This never happens. :eek:

[satansaloser2005]

No one around but me? This never happens. :eek:

*waves*

But I'm not good for much right now. I've been looking over the thread and will hopefully post something a bit later.

You are not alone.

[Loslote]

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Loslote]

Oh, and I will vote for either Lommy or Wilwa toDay, but not until much closer to DL, I think.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally: (busy busy loooooong analysis yeesh...):rolleyes:
(For the record after this my earlier suspicion of Shasta has lessened.

Sally 79 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617349&postcount=79) Won't be around much fair enough.

Sally 82 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617352&postcount=82) Will try to vote doesn't want us to wait up though... Why? would your vote sway a tie to an innocent?

Sally 153 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617433&postcount=153) Wants Vote Count... not much here

Sally 169 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=617449#post617449) Defends Mnem Suspects Shasta Votes Roa :eek:

Sally 218 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617595&postcount=218) Doing Laundry can't post

Sally 236 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617624&postcount=236) Again goes after Shasta and go figure too busy to post... For the record Sally I do not base my suspicio on this I myself had some recent time issues... So not suspicious because of it.. yet

Sally 278 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617681&postcount=278) responds to Boro makes sense to me. Don't lynch someone just to see what's inside.

A few Chatty posts... This particular bit of posting did and still does irk me somewhat says constantly no time finally found some spends it on nonsense like rhyming her name...

Sally 292 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617696&postcount=292) Does an analysis... I feel just to satisfy me... Mainly because It's followed up by more chatting posts...

Sally 359 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617789&postcount=359) List Eomer Wolf? nope... Mnem dunno... Wolf... Pitch Possible wolf hey 1 out of 3 ain't bad...

Sally 373 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617805&postcount=373) Again refuses to explain herself based on time... I'm sorry but at this point i begins to feel like an excuse as opposed to an inconvenience...

Sally 386 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617820&postcount=386) "Explanations" mostly based on feelings...

I'll call this Halftime on Sally's Analysis work on it more shortly... Brain hurts...

[Loslote]

Just noting, when I saw that Morsul had posted, my first thought was, "Wait, he's in this game?" It was quickly followed up by, "Of course he is, but he's probably innocent."

Maybe I'm passing him over too much...going from suspecting him just because I always do to not noticing him at all...potentially a problem, but now that I give it some thought, I don't think so... He's not acting like Morwolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

[Loslote]

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

Point taken. However, as she repeats it again later, I'm pretty sure it's intentional.