WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Point taken. However, as she repeats it again later, I'm pretty sure it's intentional.

If she's a wolf, she's hardly going to do it now. :p

[Macalaure]

I'm here, btw. I'm doing an analysis on Nogrod which will probably take half of the Day. I'm up to page 8/19, and it looks very inconclusive this far.

[Loslote]

I'm here and I have read everything and I honestly just don't have anything to say. I seem to be a bit unable to get a grip on the game, undoubtedly partly because I haven't been dedicating it as much time as I could have, due to seeing friends etc.

Here's the post; # 151 if you want to look at the whole thing.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally Part 2

Sally 391 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617825&postcount=391) Why she'll probably vote Lottie...

Sally 396 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617830&postcount=396) Actually may have called this head on... I say may have because not entirely convinced on the "reveal" yet.

Sally 404 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=617838#post617838) Secons the lottie vote against bandwagonning Mnem.. but no problem bandwagonning Lottie?

Sally 414 From the Wolf inside you? (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617848&postcount=414)
Sally 422 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617856&postcount=422) Predicting?

Sally 431 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617996&postcount=431) Hmm... Defensive against our innocent Eomer...

Post 450 Promises more commentary... again...

Sally 484 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618079&postcount=484) Another promise of Analysis with a nonsense defense...

Sally 487 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618082&postcount=487) Analysis... Long Quotes short explanations girl after my own heart;)

493 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618092&postcount=493) response to Boro... gives possible strategy for wolves... but not diffenitive...

494 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618093&postcount=494) Busy again...

500 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618104&postcount=500) "Boro you know better..." after all sally you've contributed so much over the course of the... oh nevermind...

515 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618121&postcount=515) Sally takes on Shasta once again...

516 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618123&postcount=516) Dashes off again...

Part 2 done await part 3...

Seriously Sally you post too much:rolleyes:

[Loslote]

I wish I had time to reread all for myself, but that's not case due to my bad timing (again). :rolleyes: Anyway, I trust Wilwa's version of Mnemo's sayings, especially if Nerwen verifies it. And I guess it's ok to trust voting summaries too.

~~~

And here comes a quick list about my current feelings

Innocent
Greenie
Morsul
Loslote (?)

Probably innocent
Pitch
Nog
Boro

More innocent than guilty
Nerwen
Eomer
Bes

More guilty than innocent
Brinn
Mac
Wilwa

Probably guilty
Sally
Nienna
Shasta

Guilty
At least two of the previous cathegory and one from either there or somewhere else...

Ha! It goes 3-3-3-3-3! Nice. I'll be back later and I can elaborate on stuff then.

Interesting. She trusts Wilwa's analysis but puts her in the probably guilty category, and puts Pitchie in the probably innocent category. Hm...

[Morsul the Dark]

Part 3... *sigh*

Sally 518 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618125&postcount=518) Discusses Lottie and Bes...

Post 524 explains why although suspecting her will save lottie for now...

You know what... for such a frequent poster Sally doesn't contribute much outside of "Not time to post"

526- no time...
528-now to analyze
529-would lynch wilwa if she's best option... No really?
534- granted sarcastic but annoys me

for the record I'm doing quick version right now because I've run out of steam on this analysis...

[Morsul the Dark]

still another page in her recent posts to go through but I have my conclusion...

Sally Posts Constantly one "Not being able to post" which in my opinion equals... I can't give away my fellow packmates but I can't just obviously avoid contributing I don't have time sounds better...

[Loslote]

still another page in her recent posts to go through but I have my conclusion...

Sally Posts Constantly one "Not being able to post" which in my opinion equals... I can't give away my fellow packmates but I can't just obviously avoid contributing I don't have time sounds better...

Or she might not have time to post. ;)

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

[Morsul the Dark]

ehausted from looking at Sally's posts... fine.... I'll look at them....:o<yawn

[satansaloser2005]

Or she might not have time to post.

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

My goodness what a novel idea! :eek::rolleyes:


And indeed I have been busy; I get loads of time but only in chunks big enough to read, say I've read and have a thought or two, and then dash off again.


Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Wilwa:

#215: Pointless.

#226: A post of Boro's doesn't make sense and seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The line "I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be." she finds odd. Understands what Nog is trying to say about Roa, but agrees with Nerwen that it's not enough to make her suspicious of Roa as well. Is confident in Nog for this reason, though. Agrees with Roa about Boro not latching on to the suspicion of her (Roa) when she made her number-slip until someone else suspected her for it. Disagrees with Roa that Nog is pretending to be the Seer. Questions her, but does not suspect her. Boro makes her uneasy, Nog she's fine with and Roa is iffy.

#232: Mostly pointless. Was starting to think Roa guilty (based on Nog's case?) until Legate's reveal of her withdrawal.

#239: Boro weirds her out "but that's normal", is especially fine with Nog, is good with Nerwen and Mnemo. Doesn't see why the people who got three votes got three votes.

#346: Makes a point I actually agree with, that saying "this is how I would act/have acted as a wolf" can't be expected to be taken as a case for someone's innocence. Comments that it seems like "we're not going to go after Inzil for a while, since even though he didn't die people may think "oh, well lets go for someone else today" and then he could be a wolf this whole time and we could be letting him get by. Does that make sense? I mean I'm not saying "lets get Inzil and finish what we started" cause I don't really suspect him, but it just feels so weird to me." <- I'm not okay with this comment. It reminds me eerily of Mr. Agreeable, like she's giving herself an out while keeping Inzil in the spotlight. Uneasy, but nothing concrete about Morsul. Eomer is under her radar. Mnemo is acting different than yesterday, but not suspiciously so. Good with Nog, Mac, and Nerwen. Iffy about me (Shasta), but not truly suspicious of. Might vote Boro.

#363: Will vote for one of Lommy, Boro, Pitch, Mnemo, Loslote, Inzil, or Nerwen. Probably not Lommy, possibly Boro, possibly Pitch (finds him iffy after a quick skim), okay with Mnemo, hasn't paid attention to Loslote, doesn't know why people suspect Inzil, good with Nerwen. Deciding between Boro and Pitch, leaning Boro.

#381: Thought about voting Pitch, but decides to vote for Boro.

#403: Defends herself against Lommy quite vehemently. Says she's been consistent with her suspicion of him and has given ample reasoning. Makes special note of the fact that she wasn't bandwagoning or adding more names to the pile.

#456: Pointless.

#461: Does some analyzing of Mnemo. Thinks Boro or Nog might be wolves, based on the fact that Mnemo seemed sure of their innocence. Thinks Pitch might be innocent, because she (Mnemo) concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, also her (Mnemo's) vote for Pitch. Will be keeping an eye on Sally due to Mnemo's interactions with her (Sally). Notes again that Mnemo was positive of Nog's innocence and mentions that while she doesn't find Nog that suspicious, she'll be keeping that in mind.

#490: Defends herself against Boro. Says she didn't find Mnemo suspicious and didn't want to bring anyone else into the mix, so anyone she voted for would have tied them with Mnemo. Unsure about Lottie's reveal. Thinks the decision to reveal was rushed as Lottie wasn't in any danger of being lynched. Again reminds me of Pitch with "I'm not saying I completely don't believe her, but..." Doesn't feel suspicious of anyone except possibly Nog because of how Mnemo felt about him and uneasy with Boro.

#497: A list. Half and half on Nienna, a bit wary of Pitch, will let Morsul be, rather suspicious of Lommy for being agreeable, doesn't talk about Boro, fairly good with me (Shasta), will let Loslote be, will keep a closer eye on Sally, unsure about Nogrod, and no one else has stood out.

#499: Pointless.

#509: After a quick skim, decides to vote Nienna, though she's "not positive".

#602: Mostly pointless. Commisserates on the Nienna-lynch, is glad it wasn't her (Wilwa).

#711: Votes Pitch.

#735: Unsurprised about Eomer. Thinks Boro makes sense regarding the kill choices of those who voted Mnemo twice. Responds to Lommy that the fact that Nog and Mac are alive could be a bluff. More agreeableness and vacillating. Comments that Lottie could still be a lying wolf.

-----------

Apologies if this has already been done/is repetitive. A lot of this is for my benefit, and conclusions coming next.

[satansaloser2005]

Erm, crap. Double post. Anyway, sorry about that. Getting to analysis now that my internet isn't flailing as much.


*headdesks*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"
-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal

----------------

So there's a lot more against Wilwa than there is for her. I'm glad to know it wasn't just groupthink that made me suspicious of her. :rolleyes:

[Boromir88]

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

I don't like this, you are basically giving the wolves a reason to not kill Lottie. By saying "Let's give her a few days and if she's not dead then we'll lynch her" you're offering the wolves a lynch target in a couple days, so why kill her?

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

1. She gave us a wolf
2. Her reveal and details check out
3. He reasons for revealing check out

We'd be foolish to follow that proposed plan. No what we do is we accept the fact that Lottie is a known innocent, who gave us a wolf. If the wolves want to keep her around, that's their perogative. Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it. ;)


or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

Maybe Brinn and/or Mac are wolves, and I'm alive because they have no reason to kill me since I haven't been suspecting them at all.

Maybe they're killing those who look even more innocent.

Maybe they haven't killed me, because I'm being a pain to the wrong people and I haven't done anything to make them worry about me.

Maybe, I'm too big of a pain and they fear killing me, so as long as I sit in a corner and rant to myself they don't care.

Maybe it's multiple of these possibilities...and these are just the ones off the top of my head.

Instead of trying to make weak-based assumptions about why I'm not dead yet, and this makes you suspicious. Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.


These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.
No they aren't. Think of it as a scale, or even your NogRoa point system. ("This looks good for Nog, this doesn't look good for him"). That's all I was doing with the wolf-on-wolf votes.

In general I tend to believe wolves don't do a lot of pre-planned schemes the first night. They want to get an idea of what people are thinking, the situation...etc, before setting out on concrete plans. Plus, the number of people, points to wolf-on-wolf being votes being less likely.

However, that was not a normal Day 2. Mnemo was under considerable suspicion on Day 1, and started Day 2 under even more suspicion. On top of that she did a 180 character change, this pointed to me that either "a wolf-on wolf, or one of her packmates nudging suspicion towards her, os more likely." The only contradiction is "less" and "more," but think of it as a scale and that I was disagreeing with Eomer saying there were no wolf-on-wolf votes. (Now, we also know that Mnemo voted for Pitchwolf, this makes the wolf-on-wolf possibility again more likely, as Mnemo went sacrificial).

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.
I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.
Oh really?
Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations)
That's an un-altered quote from your post #234. The only alteration is my bolding to add emphasis. :p

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.
Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

And I really don't like this:

So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking

Sort of "I'm-definitely-not-a-villain..."

Well, she gave us a wolf and I would say we should search for the remaining two elsewhere for a Day or two... but if we don't get them we should lynch her before the numbers start evening out. Just to be on the safe side.

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

EDIT: X'd with a whole lot of people.

[satansaloser2005]

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

Not necessarily. The secret role could be, as Lottie mentioned (and I believe her on this) forbidden to reveal except for/given certain conditions or could be something completely different from Lottie and even more insane of a role. I know I had trouble in Shasta's game with my unknown (surprise!) hunter role, so imagine something that normally doesn't exist in a game.

I'm just sayin'. Lottie may be telling the truth, she may be lying. I'm kind of done dealing with her at least for now, because we've got more important things to worry about. If it gets to crunch time I may look at her again but for now I think she can take care of herself.

[Loslote]

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

~~~~~~

Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it. ;)

That made me laugh. And, that's the plan. :p Now,

++Lommy

Take Two. I don't know if I'll be on before deadline, but it's not looking likely, so...good luck, all.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen and Sally.

[Nogrod]

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones... :(

With about twenty pages of the game it's hard to rememeber whose post any one you quote might be from if it's not the one next to your post...

It's not that hard; just after picking the "wrap" function add = and then immediately after it the name of the person quoted (so no empty space between the = and the first letter of the quoted name). It would really make this much easier to follow.

You might think you are answering to a certain person but without the knowledge of your intention and a host of people playing it would take half an hour at least at this point of a game to find whom one is referring to if one doesn't remember it outright.

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!



EDIT: X'd from Boro onwards... to whom this was addressed...

[Loslote]

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

*cough Lommy cough*

And yeah, good point. I thought that was strange, too. Sort of a "Hmn. Not much to say. Let's just all go WAHH!! and see what happens!"

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her. :rolleyes:

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

And to reply to the Inzil/Nerwen comment, since my quotes bugged out on me - You're right, I did mention "or save Inzil". The focus of my suspicion was still on the Mac-kill attempt, though. :p

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times. :eek:


Edit: X'ed with Nerwen, Sally, Lottie, Nogrod, Lottie.

[Morsul the Dark]

My goodness what a novel idea! :eek::rolleyes:
Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW.

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?:Merisu:"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

[satansaloser2005]

*chuckles*

Ah, Nog, in an ideal world....I'll admit I've gotten really lazy on the bolding though. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't, but when I'm scrolling through a thread I'm always happy to see other people doing it. So often I think we just forget (in the case of bolding at least) and submit our post without doing that kind of stuff.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's

[Loslote]

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!

That would help. I try to, but I forget a LOT. Then again, there would be too many to lynch in one day...no one remembers all of the time.

[satansaloser2005]

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?:Merisu:"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.


x'd with Lottie

[Nogrod]

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

[Loslote]

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Morsul the Dark]

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.


x'd with Lottie

No people are busy I get that in fact the first few times I said "Eh so she's busy.." but after a few pages of reading the same "Here reading busy be back later" posts over and over I get the feeling it's more an excuse than a reality... That's my reason.

[satansaloser2005]

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

Yeah, I'm not sure he is either (which is why I haven't already voted him) but if his shoddy logic and therefore misdirected vote goes to an innocent how hesitant are the wolves going to be to jump on that? (Given the right circumstances) not very, meaning if he's around at End Game we might be in a real pickle.


Still, I'd rather go for one of my top suspects toDay. By the way, Shasta, thanks for putting up that analysis of Wilwa; it was a nice little review for me. Too bad you're another of my top suspects. :rolleyes:


EDIT: x'd with Morsul

[Loslote]

We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves. ;)

EDIT: xed with Morsul and Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves. ;)

EDIT: xed with Morsul and Sally

Heh. Not bloody likely, princess. They're probably too smart for that.

[Loslote]

Heh. Not bloody likely, princess. They're probably too smart for that.

How very rude of them. They should all be lynched. :p

[satansaloser2005]

How very rude of them. They should all be lynched. :p

I concur! Come on then, wolves, form an orderly line and we'll assist you one at a time. ;)

[Macalaure]

Nogrod-analysis. I'm intentionally leaving out my posts against him and his posts against me, to try to be objective (and to shorten it, I admit).

Day 1

He has some brief strategy discussion with Brinn, then goes all over the place with his Roa-miscount-thing. He accuses Roa and Nerwen of teamwork for Nerwen's defense of Roa and their shared criticism of Boro. Lommy suggests teamwork between Roa and Nogrod, later she says that at least one of them is a wolf.

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...Why would Mnemo do this half-hearted defense of Nogrod? It strongly looks like a wolf defending another. Mnemo also stated several times that she thinks both Roa and Nogrod are innocent. Nogrod will defend Mnemo later in #158.

Now for the Nog-Roa controversy. We've seen it all before, but this time, Nog looks odder of the two. Secret cobbler is a definitive possibility, but no more than that. Let's keep them both for another Day and see whether Nog comes up with something more substantial.
Pitch takes Roa's side, suspects Nogrod, but not too much: "no more than a cobbler", "Let's keep him for another day". Another defense that looks wolfish.

Has anybody considered Nog has a secret role which is not a cobbler?What is he hinting at? That Nogrod could be gifted?

Nogrod votes Roa even though the chances of lynching her are slim. He does not try to save Mnemo.


Day 2

Nogrod starts the day in full Roa mode. His case, while overblown, does not look particularly wolfish.

Nog, I found that act you pulled yesterDay extremely puzzling, but with the explanation you've given now, it kinda makes sense. As for your actual case against Roa, I've got to mull it over - it'll be interesting to see how she reacts now, anyway.Pitch looking for an opportunity to go after Roa is not suspicious. A wolf would do that with an innocent case, too. The way he stepped away from suspecting Nogrod is suspicious, though.

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!Some valid criticism, though nothing outrageous. The "one of the most reasonable people" part is a bit worrisome.

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.
This looks like honest suspicion, however, apart from generic suspicions (rubbing wrong way, odd posts), he copies his points. Then again, suspecting generically is something wolves like to do to innocents. All in all, this one looks good.

In #233, Pitch and Mnemo are the first two he discusses. Strange. (Lommy is the third, btw.)

Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.
Whole lot of points here and no defense of him. Why then the moderate "having hard times with" and not something stronger?

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.
Basically the same he said before, just milder. Repetition of "reasonable" is suspicious, in my opinion.

Mnemo explains herself because Nogrod criticised her twice. (Don't want to check since this thing is already taking too long, but didn't other people raise the same concern?)

From his early vote analysis in #349

Mnemo -> Pitch (based on her analysis on him)
This is interesting. He analyses quite a bit in that short post, but here he leaves it at a very simple "bases on analysis". Many others have criticised her analysis of him as bad (and now we know it w-on-w), but Nogrod doesn't touch it in the least.
As incriminating as this is on its own, he does say that Mnemo's (and Lottie's) votes look worst. He nevertheless refrained from giving reasons, which still looks bad.

Voting-wise it seems Mnemo has made two quite odd votes.

I don't get Mnemo's suspicion on Pitch that because he posts in "chunks" he's suspicious. Quite a strech - not the first one in this game though...

But I think some of Pitchie's posting does look odd and over-careful - at least yesterDay. Here are two prime examples:

(two quotes)

I can't see the point of posting a lot of these... except if one wishes especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way...
What to make of this? On the one hand, he criticises Mnemo now, on the other, he gives merit to some of her points. On the third hand, how is a wolf supposed to act when a fellow is in danger and doing some heavy w-on-w at the same time? Unless you choose to ignore it (which could be interpreted suspiciously later, too), you either go w-on-w for either side, or you end up with something like this...

Mnemo's voting looks especially weird and she's not the easy-going voice of reason she was in the early part of D1 - when not yet suspected.

Pitch for being such a nice one taking care not to rub anyone the wrong way but still making an impression he's at it all the time and considers things for the good of us all.

He's been after Mnemo and Pitch consistently this Day, even though each quote taken by itself leaves the w-on-w possibility wide open. It's entirely possible that wolf-Nog has abandoned hope of saving Mnemo by now, but why does he keep on chasing Pitch? Then again, we do have the example of a wolf-on-wolf in Mnemo and Pitch.

Pitch never reacted much to Nogrod's suspicions. Just a very short comment in his vote post. Nog ends up voting Mnemo, unsurprisingly, although he calls it a "hard decision".


Day 3

Nogrod thinks Pitch is less suspicious after Mnemo's guilt - not suspicious. Not sure what to think of Nogrod's doubt about Lottie's claim.

I'm not suggesting lynching Lottie toDay unless some serious counter-reveals emerge, but I'm really quite confused and untrusting of her right now.
Counter-reveals? Who would have counter-revealed it? While this line looks wolfish in the sense of just waiting for a reason to vote Lottie, it makes no sense for a wolf, unless he expected a false claim coming from an ordo(or hunter)-Lottie or in the implausible case that Nogrod and Lottie are the remaining wolves.

The heavy disagreement on Nienna between Nog and Brinn looks very much like one of them is evil. Nogrod votes Nienna, after briefly considering Wilwa.


Day 4

Pitch doesn't say anything and nobody doubts Lottie's claim, so from now on everything gets more vague. I don't see anything pointing in either way, except when Nogrod suggests to still lynch Lottie at some point. If Nog is a w-on-w-ing wolf, why point out other possible w-on-w's so much?


Time is running out on me, and I can't look at toDay now. Bolding the names is taking forever and I can't even really proofread it anymore.

I think everything hinges on Day2. Is it possible that Nogrod went after Mnemo and Pitch in a wolf-on-wolf-ish way or not. I'd dismiss it firmly but for two points: Mnemo and Pitch did wolf-on-wolf, too, and it's a nice way to gain others' trust when there's no seer around. The evidence is very inconclusive, but my bad feeling remains, which is very little reward for hours of work.

I will close quoting Nog himself:
One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!PS: Everybody who actually read the entire thing, let me know about it and I'll rep you!

[satansaloser2005]

Holy crap, Mac!

*reads*

[Morsul the Dark]

Shall we test this theory? (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=608216&postcount=301):eek: By the way joking that'd be a horrible reason to vote for someone

[satansaloser2005]

Interesting take on Roa/Nogrod and all that, and I do see your point about Mnemo defending him looking a bit wolfish. However, it’s possible that since they’re both....well, a bit similar in style that Mnemo may have just seen Nog as an ally in that regard and decided to defend him. The same could be said of Nog defending Mnemo.

Oooo good point about Pitch though, especially since we don’t (think we) have a cobbler. And I like (or rather find it interesting) that in the post you quoted Pitch feels the need to not only theorize that Nog is gifted, but also point out that he doesn’t mean a cobbler. What did he know that we don’t?

Like I said, him defending Mnemo but not voting to save her is probably just like players helping each other, not necessarily packmates.

Good point too about his phrasing on Mnemo, the “one of the most reasonable” part. However he’s talking about ‘general issues’ he says and then goes on to suspect her, so once again I’ll have to say that his partial defense is the liking of her playing style.

I wonder why he put them in that order. Could be random, could not. And you do have a good point about Pitch, but unless you didn’t quote the whole post he didn’t talk that much about him in that post. He does suspect him but for instance if he suspected someone more at the time this makes sense. And besides, I think “have really hard times with” implies that he thinks he’s guilty. Just my opinion.

Again on the Mnemo thing, I think it’s just similar playing styles and general kindred spirits, not wolvery. Although you have an excellent point on how he dismisses her vote.

From the end of your Day 2 analysis it is possible they (Mnemo and Nog) were wolves together; again, it seems to me not by his earlier posts and attitude in general, but he could have started up on her heavier once he realized she was in trouble and it could make him look good. However, I don’t think he’d have gone so hard on Pitch.

I can’t say much on his opinion of the Lottie situation because I completely agree with him. (Also, when did he suggest she was the hunter?)

Think about it this way; if an entire pack did wolf-on-wolf it would be brilliant, but also extremely dangerous. I think Mnemo may have been up for it but I also know she was just playing for fun (though she definitely wouldn’t have wanted to get bussed in my opinion) so it’ s possible that they didn’t; also, would Pitch agree to something like that? I can’t see Nog going wolf-on-wolf without a reason and/or the consent of his packmates. I’m not sure though.

And yes, they can be sneaky. Which is why I think Nog may be too obvious a choice.


Now I want my rep!!!!!!! :p

[Nerwen]

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

[satansaloser2005]

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

:rolleyes:

[Morsul the Dark]

++Sally

Too many posts about nothing and not having time usually followed by lots of posts within a decent amount of time that amount to joking and smileys and fluttering eyes... continuosly promises to contribute follows up maybe twice... Sorry doesn't add up for me but then again with my "Backwards" logic who knows. need an example? the previous few posts range across an hour and a half and amount to nothing but chatty posts and one reply post which is long but comes down to "Got some good points Mac Where's my rep?"

[satansaloser2005]

With votes like this it's a wonder we've not lynched a gifted already. *rolls eyes* I wonder if it's worth my time to look at Morsul or if I should just not bother for now.

Oh, and sorry I didn't point it out; my long post was of course a response to Mac's equally epic Nog post. I thought I'd labelled it but obviously not. :(

[Morsul the Dark]

Oh, and sorry I didn't point it out; my long post was of course a response to Mac's equally epic Nog post. I thought I'd labelled it but obviously not. :(

To be fair that does seem obvious I'd hope people knew what you were talking about I mean those two post take up half the page:p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

Go to your room, madam. That was horrible. :p

Regarding Mac's analysis of Nogrod: After reading it, one thought keeps going through my mind - That's a LOT of wolf-on-wolfism, if Nogrod is furry. You had some very interesting points in the beginning, regarding Pitch and Mnemo's defense of Nogrod. Question, though - did it seem to you that Nogrod needed defending at the time? Because it didn't me.

I want my rep now too. ;)

Edit: X'ed with Morsul, Sally, Morsul.

[satansaloser2005]

To be fair that does seem obvious I'd hope people knew what you were talking about I mean those two post take up half the page:p

Lol. Yeah, but there was no label on it at all, just "you" this and "you" that. I'd go back and edit a title onto it but I think I'm too lazy.


Speaking of which, I may be going to bed. Sorry, I wanted to be more productive but I'm simply too tired. :( On the plus side I don't think I'll be at work most of the day tomorrow so I'll be able to be on when I get up. Until then (or sooner if I have trouble sleeping again) preciouses. :)


EDIT: x'd with Shasta, who also has a good point. There's wolf-on-wolf, and then there's overdoing it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul, not that I don't agree that Sally's weird and seems to have no time (she keeps calling me suspicious, but I have no idea why as she hasn't actually said any reasons for suspecting me), but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough? :Merisu:

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Morsul, not that I don't agree that Sally's weird and seems to have no time (she keeps calling me suspicious, but I have no idea why as she hasn't actually said any reasons for suspecting me), but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough? :Merisu:

Erm, since when am I back in college? I'm a "big girl" now. :p

(But thank you for coming to my aid, sir knight. I appreciate it.)

[Morsul the Dark]

Werewolf try to kill each other and Still hug at the end of the day doesn't that make you feel Fuzzy Sally?:p

[satansaloser2005]

Werewolf try to kill each other and Still hug at the end of the day doesn't that make you feel Fuzzy Sally?:p

Warm and fuzzy yes evil and furry no. Nice try though.

Now let me sleep or I may kill you all in real life. ;)

[Morsul the Dark]

Morsul,, but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough? :Merisu:

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

Oh no she's participating Quite a bit it' whether or not her participation contributes anything that I wonder... Not that she isn't fun to play with I just now know how Roa felt dealing with me:p

[Brinniel]

Sorry for my lack of participation again (as finals get closer, I'm afraid it's only going to get worse). It's late and I know I'll only have a little time tomorrow to post, so I won't be able to say much toDay.

So far, my opinion of Lommy has not changed. Shasta looks a little better toDay, but I'm still worried about him from past Days. Mac has bleeped up my radar a bit. This game he's been playing pretty smoothly; while he receives some attention it's not too much. There's something about his manner that reminds me of when he was a wolf in past games. I don't think I'll vote him toDay since most of my suspicion is gut feeling, which is not enough, but I do think it'd be wise to watch him more carefully. Perhaps Boro as well since he hasn't gotten much attention throughout the game, though I'm a little less worried about him.

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.
It's a good point to bring up, as too often I've seen wolves react in this manner. If any of them are wolves, I'd imagine it's just one as I can't see both wolves reacting in the same way. Of course, these sort of reactions don't always necessarily mean one has to be guilty, but it certainly doesn't help that all three of them have happened to be on my suspicion list at one time or another.

Okay, I'm going to bed now as I'm already half-asleep and not thinking straight. And I have to get up early anyway.

[Nerwen]

Anyone here?

[Thinlómien]

I'm here, I just read the thread and plan to reply all the posts that have come during my absence... But I can keep refreshing the thread every now and then if you want to talk...

[Boromir88]

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones... :(


Oh come on now, it's not that hard to follow. I wrapped one of your posts, responded, one of Lommy's posts, responded, wrapped one of Shasta's posts of suspicions against me, and responded. It is not that confusing, I'm not going to put "Shasta" at the end of every quote if I'm responding to different points in one of his posts. All un-named quotes after the Shasta one are from Shasta's same post, except the one that I point out it's from Shasta's #234. Relax yourself Mr. Grinch. :p

I'm up early and here until 2-ish when I'll have to vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Enough snow that I'm too lazy to go to the office. (Besides, we'd decided to be closed today if it snows, so it works out.) Only three or four posts since I went to bed so I'm caught up, but I'm going to attend to some housework and then look through again and see what there is to see.


I haven't had a snow day since high school. ^_^

[Thinlómien]

I don't know why, but I get huge wolvish vibes from Wilwa's first post, more so on the first than on the second reading, though.

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament :D).

Shasta - I agree that Mac's interactions with Pitch are weird, but like I said yesterDay, if he's a wolf, he was trying to get fellow Mnemo lynched on Day2 and fellow Pitch was trying to get him lynched on Day1, and that is a bit too much of a stretch for my imagination at least.

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?No, really, you're misinterpreting me again. I didn't mean I couldn't be bothered to pay attention or that I was bored - I had just problems getting a grip of the game after a long pause, that's it. However, that had nothing to do with my role: I bet I could've been just as lost as a wolf. I'm not one of those people who think the game becomes more interesting if I'm a wolf, more on the contrary since I don't like being a wolf. So, what I mean is that you should not make any conclusions on my role based on me feeling "detached", that could've happened to me with having any role (except possibly the seer since that is the most adrenaline-y role there is or some role I have never tried before, like the cobbler, but we don't need to bother ourselves with that because those roles are not included in this game). So take me either as an innocent feeling detached or a wolf feeling detached pretending to be an innocent feeling detached. And Shasta, no, I'm not going to say I'm feeling detached again, but simply because I have felt a lot more involved in the game (got the grip on it, so to speak) since sometime on Day2 (you can even check, I think I said it already then). ;)

Interesting. She trusts Wilwa's analysis but puts her in the probably guilty category, and puts Pitchie in the probably innocent category. Hm...I have no problems trusting people's analyses even if I suspect them: I very much doubt anyone is going to lie or hide stuff in their analyses even if they are wolves - that wouldn't be smart at all. My general attitude towards the facts provided in analyses is trusting while my attitude towards the conclusions of the analyses may be very critical. For proof: when I was writing my big analysis post ysterDay, I was using as my help summary posts from Nienna, Sally, Nogrod, Eomer, Mac and Wilwa, all of whom featured on my suspicion list.

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

On the Lottie issue... I tend to agree with Boro and Nerwen: let's let her be. I have no reason not to believe her claim, and I think the "birthday dreamer" role sounds highly plausible and something Legate could've very well come up with. (And no, this is no inside information, just a personal feeling.) And Sally's theory of a secret role who's forbidden to reveal sounds far-fetched: I think our mod would've been really short-sighted to make that kind of a role and thus give the wolves a huge advantage. So I'm thinking let's let Lottie be and reconsider it if there's a counter-claim. (As a side thing, I'm really not looking forward to another quiet unanimous lynch Day.)

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.I know. I'm not stupid (stupid enough to think that as an innocent or stupid enough to try to mislead people like that as a wolf). I never said other reasons are impossible or unlikely - I just said this option exists, and you can't deny that. I know games where what I said has really happened, and those are not a few. That's what made me think of it, although I was never claiming that I suspect it's so in this game. It is a possibility we shouldn't dismiss, as well as we shouldn't dwell on it as long as there's nothing really pointing at it (most of the village is still alive etc).

Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.Bossing me around, eh? ;) Well, I'm afraid it's an assumption we've all heard hundreds of times before, also. Inzil, Greenie and Eomer are all smart and independent thinkers, more difficult to lead than some and also less probable to make "alliances" with anybody. Maybe they died because the wolves thought them to be more difficult to thwart or get to their side than others. Or maybe they died because they seemed gifted: all these people tend to have a sort of "reserved" aura around them, which makes them usually feel more gifted than some other innocent players who scream ordo all the time (not necessarily being ones, though). My logic says the wolves would try to get the ranger (and have the hunter die rather early than late when there's a bigger probability for him/her to take one of them to death), so who knows, maybe these people have had a suspicious-looking connection with another player?

But if the wolves are merely looking for gifteds (like I would if I was them) there's precious little to analyse in their kills or conclude from them. Of course one could read each Day from the wolves' perspective and try to think "who looks gifted" and start thinking why the certain person was picked from all gifted-looking people, but that would be both futile and time-consuming: the effort would not be worth the results. And the gifted-hunting strategy could occur to any wolves, so it doesn't point at anybody special being a wolf.

Okay, let's assume for argument's sake, wolves are not after gifteds but want to remove independent thinkers. Who would then be a wolf? At least someone who seeks to lead and affect big masses, possibly someone who likes forming sort of alliances. I would put you, Boro, and Nogrod to the first category without hesitation, maybe some others. And to the second category, at least Sally and Wilwa, possibly myself. However, this does not really lead me to suspect any of the aforementioned people, because I don't want to make the assumption that wolves just want to get rid of independent thinkers.

And lastly, let's take a wacky theory that just occured to me. Maybe wolves are after ordos this time? Any gifted-looking player is with 50% chance the hunter and the ranger has reduced power when s/he's blind without a seer around - and how probable it is that a ranger makes a save randomly anyway? (Okay I just realised this doesn't really play out because it leaves a lot of possible revealers around, but let's keep going for the sake of the argument.) This could again be true, because maybe they thought Inzil was an ordo since he didn't reveal in the last minutes of Day1 (hey that actually makes sense!), and at least to me Greenie seemed very ordoish this time and maybe Eomer's boldness could've been interpreted that way. An ordo-killing wolf pack would consist of at least two bold wolves who could firstly even come up with this kind of idea and wouldn't be afraid of revealment-battles.

That's all I can come up with right now as long as it goes for general killing patterns, and I'm afraid these musings didn't make me any wiser, because none of my hypotheses seems likely. I would go for the interpretation that each kill had its own different motives and what they were, I have no idea of without reading the whole thread (eurgh) except that of course I can say general stuff like "everybody thought Greenie innocent".

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

Oh, and that also goes for the hypothetical true secret role holder... I'm not going to buy it if anyone comes out on the last Day and claims to be "the Night7 birthday seer" or whatever.

Mac's analysis of Nogrod is interesting, although it leaves me just as undecided as it apparently left Mac himself...


edit: xed with Boro and Sally and sorry for writing such a novel!
edit2: fixed bolding

[Nerwen]

Hello again... internet went again out for an hour, and now it keeps not letting me quote...anyway...

It's a good point to bring up, as too often I've seen wolves react in this manner. If any of them are wolves, I'd imagine it's just one as I can't see both wolves reacting in the same way.

For what it's worth, Sally and Shasta crossed.

Of course, these sort of reactions don't always necessarily mean one has to be guilty, but it certainly doesn't help that all three of them have happened to be on my suspicion list at one time or another.

Of course, it's nothing like proof... it does remind me rather of myself last time I was a wolf, though, puzzling over why those fiends of werewolves killed poor Mac.

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves. ;)

Oh, I can see the point, too– however, Nogrod has been saying, "sadly, we may have to lynch her in a couple of Days" over and over, as though it's already agreed on. Makes me a bit uneasy, especially since Sally's so keen on it, and she's one of the players I trust least at the moment. I mean, it's actually quite unnecessary... all we have to do is not treat you as an unlynchable known innocent.

then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

If you mean a Night kill instead of "lynching" I might understand but otherwise I lost track with you there. I see no reason an innocent would wish to suggest that order but could see the wolves to wish that

Maybe Bes is confusing the Ranger with the Hunter– i.e. thinks it's a kamikaze role? He appears not to understand the rules at all– which could be newbieness, or could be a wolf hiding behind the newbie mask– you know, the usual. *sigh* Perhaps we really should bring in a "read-the-rules or die" law, like people keep saying. Remember Morsul's first game?

Just noting, when I saw that Morsul had posted, my first thought was, "Wait, he's in this game?" It was quickly followed up by, "Of course he is, but he's probably innocent."

Maybe I'm passing him over too much...going from suspecting him just because I always do to not noticing him at all...potentially a problem, but now that I give it some thought, I don't think so... He's not acting like Morwolf.

*shrugs* We've only ever seen one Morwolf, and that was his first game and he was pretending to be the cobbler. I'd forgotten about him too, to tell the truth.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy.

[Boromir88]

Wow, I think I need to digest that massive post of yours Lommy. And I didn't call you stupid, so don't say that about yourself. It aggravates me when people start suspecting me, because I'm not dead by a certain day, because there's no way to defend yourself from those suspicions. Maybe I should just ignore it, but as weak as they are, those types of suspicions snowball, on top of them being really frustrating, because it assumes if I'm not killed by a certain day, I'm a wolf.

Tell me how you would feel if most people were saying (about you): "It's good to keep Lommy around for a few days, because she can be very useful. But if she's not dead by a certain day, she's probably a wolf, therefor she's no more use and it would be a good idea to lynch her." I read stuff like that as...wow I'm only useful up to a certain day, and the only reason I am given those few days is because I can be useful, if I'm innocent. Seriously that's what it sounds like, and it's aggravating.

Bossing me around, eh?~Lommy (happy Nog :p)
Yes. But that bossing around goes for everyone, because I asked for anyone to look into Inzil's death.

There's only so much one person can do in a day, and I thought while Nienna wasn't the worst choice, there were still several questions to be answered before Nienna should have been lynched (above the others), one being Inzil's death. The only person who did look into Inzil's death, was ironically enough...Pitch. The other being, she was suspected for supposedly saving Mnemo, only when she had the chance she threw away her vote. :rolleyes:

That's all good stuff Lommy (I still need to digest it before responding) but that's not the connections I'm talking about. I don't mean how they are similar players, I mean connections as in what names keep popping up between Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer.

Now I've finished Inzil, and I'm going to go through Greenie and Eomer. But the only reason is because I have the time today. This is a shout out to everyone to step it up (besides Shasta and Mac). I don't mean stepping it up, as in posting more, I mean don't waste your time driving yourself (and everyone else) crazy with paranoia. Use it by going through concrete things we do know, such as the 2-wolves being dead, what was going on at the DL in Nienna's lynching? And the people the wolves have killed, not why they haven't killed me, or other loudmouths yet.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen

[Macalaure]

Reading along toDay and writing down whatever comes to mind.

Why Eomer? Has anyone bothered to look up what he's been up to? Not sure whether I'll get to today. I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice. As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy. Lottie was probably protected last night, but who knows whether the ranger gambled. If they were not afraid of a ranger gamble, then the wolves probably thought that they could make the village paranoid enough to lynch Lottie. Nogrod comes to mind once again.

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.

the deaths are 6:2 (of which two are resignments, so actually 4:2 gamingwise) but we're having still 10:2.Werewolf - the only game where winning means not losing too badly. :D

A lot of chatter going back and forth. I can't read much into it.

Reading over my own analysis. If Nogrod is a wolf, there's been a strong shift in the wolves' behaviour between Day1 and 2. I remember Mnemo suspected Pitch a little, but the next Day Mnemo and Pitch vote each other and Nogrod is after both. I'm definitely getting paranoid, but it all fits together so nicely! It even makes me wonder whether Nogrod and Brinn's clashing was staged.

This game he's been playing pretty smoothly; while he receives some attention it's not too much.Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ. :rolleyes:

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.


Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it. :)

[Brinniel]

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament ).
You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay. :rolleyes:

Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ.

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.
Well, I wouldn't say it's quite suspicion...more like concern. But yes, I know it's vague, which is why I won't make anything of it toDay since I don't have time to look any further into why I'm feeling worried about you.

Also, perhaps my perception is different because I admittingly skim through most of the thread, so I probably miss a lot that others pick up on.. :o

Oh, I can see the point, too– however, Nogrod has been saying, "sadly, we may have to lynch her in a couple of Days" over and over, as though it's already agreed on.
If we agree on something like that, then of course the wolves won't kill her as they can safely assume we'll take care of her for them if she's still alive in a couple Days. So I agree it's rather ridiculous to say that.

[Boromir88]

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?
It does, but weren't you the one who voted for Inzil on Day 1 not because you thought he was all that suspicious, but that Mac and Mnemo looked more innocent? It'll be an interesting stat to find out how many times someone actually votes for their "top suspect."

Now wilwa is my top suspect, and I voted for her first, because I wanted to see her lynched 2 days ago, and I still do. I'm slightly concerned about how she looks like the easy lynch that Nienna supposedly was, but also consider this. There's 2 wolves left, if wilwa is one of them, than all the jumps on her today are likely to be innocent driven. If not, than there's definitely wolf involvement.

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.
We'll have to agree to disagree on those two, but this is what makes WW so fascinating to play all the mesh of styles and opinions. :p

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times.

I noticed the effort, which based on your track record, I don't know if it really helps...your involvement is kind of scary actually. :p In all seriousness though, you're pointing this out does look better. I'll try to, I was going to point out your point about Bes looking good because of Pitch saying Lottie should dream of him. But I didn't really see a point since I was just going to agree with you. For some reason, I only feel the need to respond when we disagree...I do not know why that could be? :p

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

[Thinlómien]

I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice.Oh, fair interpretation of Eomer's suspiciousness, and it would explain all the differences of opinion there.

As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy. ??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.Can we lynch Wilwa on these grounds (meaning the latter of course)? ;)

Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it.What's all this talk about repping? And do I get the mammoth post award or are you just grateful for me defending you...? :p

And I didn't call you stupid, so don't say that about yourself.No, you didn't, but your point more or less assumes so. And that happens in ww all the time: people make points (sometimes out of thoughtlessness) that assume some people are acting stupidly, and no one should be offended by such points or pointing out that the points assume so. And besides, smart people have been doing stupid things (or maybe the word "stupid" is a bit harsh here) in ww since the beginning, everybody makes mistakes. But people still feel naturally slightly annoyed if they are accused of doing something that seems stupid to them and what they haven't done...

It aggravates me when people start suspecting me, because I'm not dead by a certain day, because there's no way to defend yourself from those suspicions. Maybe I should just ignore it, but as weak as they are, those types of suspicions snowball, on top of them being really frustrating, because it assumes if I'm not killed by a certain day, I'm a wolf.

Tell me how you would feel if most people were saying (about you): "It's good to keep Lommy around for a few days, because she can be very useful. But if she's not dead by a certain day, she's probably a wolf, therefor she's no more use and it would be a good idea to lynch her." I read stuff like that as...wow I'm only useful up to a certain day, and the only reason I am given those few days is because I can be useful, if I'm innocent. Seriously that's what it sounds like, and it's aggravating.I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included. (Although with me there's less to wonder since I've been suspected more than you, for example, but that's a side issue.) And like I said, I'm casting suspicion on myself on that logic as well, and indeed that kind of suspicion has been cast on me before, not maybe as often as on you (I don't know your history with this) but I know how it feels.

Lastly, I would like to point out the difference between "Boro is still alive, he must be guilty" and "Boro, Nogrod, Mac and Lommy are all still alive, one of them must be guilty". In the first case, there's only one innocent person labelled guilty because he's considered helpful/dangerous and still alive, in the last case one of the four is labelled guilty (and three out of four innocent...) because there's a certain "group" of players that is still alive. It's the same as if all the silent people in the game were still alive at this point or if all the wacky posters were still alive or whatever: it's simply the fact that wolves like to keep people with similar styles around in order not to attract attention to themselves and it has nothing to do with the assumption "if you're a veteran player and no one suspects you, you must be dead by Day4".

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

But in general, my top suspects are out of the aforementioned category. Currently my best guess at it is a Wilwa+Brinn combination (not sure if that works out together, I have to have a look at it possibly).


edit: xed with Boro and Brinn

[Thinlómien]

You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay.First off, activity and analyses are two different things. I may be very active as a wolf, but I do less analyses than as an innocent because I rather talk around randomly than wade through the archives to find evidences of guilt that don't exist. But still, as a wolf, I have made analyses, sure. But I didn't claim that a wolf that shares my temperament wouldn't do that, only that it's less likely they do a lot of analyses and Shasta has several analyses this far, some of them in massive scale. I wouldn't do that as a wolf except in exceptional circumstances. Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that... :)

[wilwarin538]

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal


My "ample reasoning" was more that I didn't like the way he claimed he's acting like an innocent Boro, and not at all how a Wolf Boro would act, I hate it when people do that. (and I believe you agreed that this was a bad thing). He just seemed to be putting a lot of effort into convincing us that he was acting like he normally would as an innocent, and yes, that made me uneasy. I don't really like being suspected for suspecting Boro, simply because no one else suspects him. And I defended my vote for him so vehemently because I'm tired of my first vote in the game always being seen as suspicious, like really, always. :rolleyes:


Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.


I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details. If she's a wolf it'd be the perfect thing to false reveal as, and anyone who would counter reveal possibly would not be any more believable. It'd be a gamble, but it's not all that unlikely that she guilty. Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

I need to check something in the rules, and then I'll be right back...

x'ed with a whole lot of people

[wilwarin538]

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.


I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.


At this moment I'm pretty sad that I don't really suspect anyone (but dear Boromir of course). And the fact that I'm probably getting lynched today is pretty discouraging, maybe why I'm having a hard time finding anything wrong with anyone. So my plan for the day: discuss any strategies/theories that people bring up, in order to remain useful despite my likely demise, and maybe find someone else to suspect, otherwise just voting for Boro just cause I can. Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

[satansaloser2005]

Why don't you analyze me, Wilwa? It'd take up lots of time and I think you'd enjoy it. ;)


Also, I am in fact at work, hence my silence. Rubbish. I'm telling you, I'm going to have some time at some point to look stuff over and make proper commentary. For now though I'll just have to read through and multi-quote so I don't have to look over everything six times in order to make my comments.

[Nerwen]

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

Ah, yes... as a gifted in that game, I remember feeling strangely superfluous...:D

I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details.

A fair point.

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at 812.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen. Really, I'd much prefer it if that game never happened. Who's with me? :rolleyes:

[Macalaure]

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

What's all this talk about repping?I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify. :p

Wilwa doesn't look very suspicious today anymore. This makes my life more complicated...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The roads are all icy today, and my car's iced up, so I'm not going to class. Lucky you, you get me for a while longer. :p

[Brinniel]

Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

I disagree. If they have the time, I'd think wolves would want to analyse more. Because with an analysis, they can build a better case against an innocent to get them lynched. Well reasoned votes after an analysis don't get questioned as much as a votes made without providing analysis first.

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...
Are you talking about The Republic? I put a lot of effort into that one because I had to survive as a lone wolf for five Days and went to extreme measures to do so. But I also remember a game of Nogrod's where I spent literally all night analysing and by the end of the game had 70-something pages of handwritten notes. And what role was I? An ordo. But at the same time, I know I've also been a lazy wolf. Basically what I'm saying is that if anyone tries to figure me out based on my effort, they won't get anywhere because it frequently changes and mostly has to do with RL. It's also why I try to avoid suspecting/disregarding people for this reason, because surely I'm not the only one who is like this.

I have to run to class and won't be back, so time to go:

++Lommy

If you want reasons, just look through my posts from the past two Days. Sorry, but I really have to go now so I just don't have time to further explain here.

[wilwarin538]

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.



More like a larger number of people then I feel comfortable with. I just think it's odd that as many people as there are would be so against never lynching her, I mean I get that she looks crazy good, and I want so badly to believe her, but there's still a part of me that's paranoid that she's totally fooling us, and I'm just surprised that not everyone is willing to consider that.

x'ed with Brinn

[Boromir88]

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Everyone was quick to believe her? Huh? There were extensive efforts to try and disprove her reveal for the timing of her reveal, how up to that point she wasn't making sense in her suspicions, from it being a crazy wolf-strategy to everything in between.

Then she gives us a wolf and there are still doubters, despite there being no counter reveals or no credible reasons beyond "this is a grand conspiratorial wolf-scheme" and we're all being played.

Every detail fits, and trust me on this, wolves can not create such air-tight fake reveals. I'll grant Shasta's point that the more details the better chance of a successful fake reveal, but they can't create something that fits this well.

Let's say you're right wilwa, can you answer why Lottie would give up Pitch? Pitch was basically written off as an innocent, based on Mnemo's vote for him, and Pitch's vote for Mnemo. So why give up Pitch, because he wasn't going to be on anyone's wolf-radar for a while?

Also, as I said to Nog, I don't like anyone saying "I don't want to lynch her today, but if she's not killed in a few days we should" business, because you are providing a great reason the wolves shouldn't kill her. If she is innocent, the wolves aren't going to kill her if everyone is saying we should lynch her if she's not dead in a few days.

I mean seriously, it does no good except to the wolves to continue to doubt Lottie's claim. And there is absolutely no foundation, or logic to even entertain the crazy possibility that she is a wolf. I will entertain the possibility that she hasn't revealed full details of her secret role, but I will speak in this absolute...she's not working for the wolves if she handed us one of them, and one who no one was seriously suspecting.

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.
I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

There could be restrictions placed on the Ranger and Hunter revealing

If not, I would prefer only the Hunter revealing, because sometimes a known hunter is more dangerous to the wolves than a hidden one. Where a known ranger is just a dead Ranger. The problem here is, they can both PM, so the Hunter may understandably think if he/she reveals this gives up the Ranger to the wolves anyway. So, for the time being let's just let the Hunter and Ranger do what they will. They've done well to stay alive thus far and the benefits of them revealing now (or even tomorrow..etc - again assuming they can with no restrictions) doesn't seem to out weigh the cost of having our gifteds exposed.

We've made good, and wise decisions so far, lets not make a mess of things if we don't have to.

Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....
You don't have to worry about the former, or saying anyone "I told you so." As far as the latter..."giving up on life altogether" it looks like you're trying to look for sympathy about how you've been wrong/get suspected all the time for your Day 1 vote, and sympathy does not make you look any better. Trying to pull a Greenie on me? :p

Let me also say, you're not only suspected for your first vote on me. That is not even my only reason for suspecting you. The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her. Look, I'm innocent, you might not like me saying it, but I am and Mnemo wasn't. Sorry, if that makes me suspicious of you.

And that still isn't the only reasons. I agree with Shasta that your vote for Nienna came out of the blue, and your reasons for doubting Lottie's claim were also suspicious. It's not possible for everyone who doubted her to be a wolf, but one of your reasons was because the limitted seer wasn't as exciting as you thought the secret-role was going to be? And now you and Nog still are trying to discredit her innocence because she wasn't killed yesterday, and your reasons today is you think that everyone believed her far too quickly?

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

[Thinlómien]

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.Aha. Makes more sense. (I was thinking along the lines "as a wolf, the ranger would do this and that" and I was like what?! :D) Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.I thought I read it all. :o :D


edit: xed with Shasta, Brinn, Wilwa and Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.


Don't misunderstand me, :p. There's a difference between her being exonerated and this being one of the (few) points in her favor. I'd be fine with a Wilwa-vote today.

Now, to look at Mac, or Boro? Either one is going to take forever... :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...That's what I meant.

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

edit: fixed quote, xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

If it helps, I'd lynch both of you if we could. Does that make it better? ;)




The recent discussion seems weird to me. I'm not sure if it's just me, but it seems like a lot of talk for the sake of talk. All this "Well, I've changed my mind but not really and I'm still not sure" and the continued coverage of Lottie worries me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not really seeing what's so suspicious about Lommy, to be perfectly honest. Boro looks better from what he's said today, but his actions in the past still worry me a bit, and Mac is still probably my second-top-suspect due to his interactions with Pitch.

[Boromir88]

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included.

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

Afterwards will be a better time to explain, but I'll sum up. It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation). As a wolf, I love taking full advantage of it, but as an innocent it makes me feel pretty rotten. And the other part about being suspected simply for the fact that I haven't been killed yet. Now, I grant you weren't saying, I must be a wolf now, but if that's all your only reason to suspect me...fine...but that still doesn't mean I'm going to like it.


Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

Her vote for me:



And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).
The only way you know your theory is correct though is to know wilwa's role. Trying to figure out your theory now will just drive you insane and confuse you.

This is what I was trying to say towards the end on the day Nienna was lynched and people were popping out vaguely suspecting Eomer. Instead of following where the evidence leads (granted we all have to make assumptions about the evidence too, but at least that is based off of "known" info...such as deaths and roles) people have a tendancy to want to drive themselves crazy trying to figure out whether someone (like me) is fooling them, instead of going for the simple route.

The simple route is not always correct (as evidenced with Nienna being innocent), but it is the wisest and overall safer route. Since I've formed such strong opinions on wilwa, knowing her role will reveal a lot to me. I can say the same about Mac or Nerwen, who I have a pretty strong feeling they're innocent, but still wonder if they're fooling me. I can come to more solid conclusions by finding out their role for sure too. To ask a rhetorical question though, do I lynch the person, who will help me figure things out more and who I think is a wolf, or the one who I think is innocent?

If wilwa's a wolf, than everyone piling on her today makes sense as it looks to be an innocently driven bandwagon. If not, then there's still 2 wolves and it has definite wolf inolvement.

Also, it may look "too easy" but it is safer than saying you suddenly don't like voting for wilwa, because you have a theory of being fooled by the veterans (or someone else)...yet you can't possibly know how accurate that theory is until you know for sure about wilwa.

++wilwa

I'm willing to stand by that vote and bet she's a wolf. If not, than I'll accept the consequences. I'm just asking you trust the info, and me, above crap-shoot shot in the dark misgivings about being fooled.

[Boromir88]

Her vote for me:


By that I forgot to clearly point out your post about it (#539):
Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)

[wilwarin538]

The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her.

Actually I believe all I did was admit that she was acting differently then she had been the day before, but I don't think I said she looked bad, at the time I didn't think she did. And again, no matter who I voted for it would have tied them with Mnemo, and I wasn't going to vote for her when I didn't think she was guilty (cause that's just a bad idea) so really no matter what I would have done it would have made me look bad. I just want you to understand it from where I'm sitting, because of the timing of my vote no matter what way I'd have gone it could have been seen as a bad vote.

And I know how good this whole thing makes Lottie look, and she probably is innocent, but I'm just paranoid. Since it's a secret role a wolf could easily make something up that sounds believable. I have no intention of voting for her or anything, I just don't want her to slip under our radar if there's even the slightest chance she's playing us. That's all I'm saying. Just trying to cover all the bases.

x'ed with Boro x 2, and so it begins...

[Nerwen]

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

EDIT:X'd with two Boros and Wilwa.

[Nerwen]

Well, of the people I've been thinking about, Shasta and Lommy are looking less guilty, Sally and Wilwa more so.

I mean, sorry to keep harping on the "Lynch Lottie" business, but come on... the argument basically comes down to– "unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..." :confused: As I can't see that this line of thought is helpful to anyone but the wolves, the people pushing it aren't looking good to me. (This applies to Nogrod, too, though I don't see enough reason to vote him now.)

[Boromir88]

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.


It is a mighty conundrum, but how many times do wolves get close to the noose one day only to be dropped from suspicion for some reason the next? I would rather know for sure about one of those "evil" Day 3 voters, than just drop suspicion on them out of paranoia that it looks too easy. And consider the benefits of being correct (another wolf down) and the cost of being wrong.

If we are wrong, at least we made a logical and wise lynch based on sound reasons which have less of a chance of turning out to be a crippling lynch than deciding we drop the suspicion on them and go for conspiracy theories about someone double or triple bluffing.

Now, I have looked at all the wolf kills, and I don't have the time to specifically point out their posts, but I'll summarize what I've written down.

Inzil's strongest suspect for two days, I would say was Mac. He suspected Mac for Mac's quick jump on the Boro-versy (good word Inzil :D). On Day 2 he backed away Mac, but this looked like a forced decision from Inzil to try to consider other people. Which he wound up primarily suspecting Mnemo and Lottie...said Nog was a puzzle, he had some misgivings about me, and voted for Lottie.

Greenie on Day 1 was most wary of Mnemo, Morsul and Nog. Wound up voting for Mnemo.
Day 2 she thought Boro, Mac, Brinn, and Lommy were good. Still wary of Mnemo, found Pitch too agreeable and Nog was back to normal, but she was still unsure.
Day 3 is an interesting one, because she is now most wary of Eomer, Pitch, and sally. Unsure of Brinn, Nienna, and Nog.

I say interesting because she was pretty much after Mnemo from the start, and then on Day 3 Pitch moved from unsure, to being wary. Greenie was killed before Lotties revealed...is it safe to assume they thought Greenie had a special-seer role, with her suspicion against 2 now known wolves? I think we can say by killing her when she moved Pitch to the "wary" category they didn't think she was the hunter.

Eomer I haven't looked at as in depth as Inzil and Pitch. But what does stand out is his stance, that he didn't think there was wolf-on-wolf amongst the Mnemo voters, and concentrated on those who tried to save her. By his saying the next day that he was happy with the Nienna lynch (even though it turned out she was innocent), maybe the wolves thought Eomer would continue to focus on those who supported Mnemo.

Now, off the top of my head Brinn and I both raised our disagreements with Eomer, but that was because we gave more credence to the wolf-on-wolf voting than Eomer was considering (at the time). As it turns out at least one wolf did vote for Mnemo, there is a possibility of another. However, it is interesting that Eomer is the one who winds up killed, there is several "expressed shocks" about it, and also to recall one of Lommy's points from Day 2. Mnemo had just as many defenders as she did attackers.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

"unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..."

I just died laughing.

Shasta - died of mirth, mid-Day 5

Edit: X'ed with Boro.

[Nogrod]

Interesting...

I would still say that the way Bes tried to reason us lynching Lottie before she had time to have a possibility to dream and come up with something we could consider looks wolvish, at least taking your "simple way through" approach Boro. It's interesting you don't consider Bes at all.

Also the way Wilwa has defended herself feels a bit wrong to me. It looks like she's trying to give up an impression of being innocent... but that she's overdoing it.

I'm not too happy with Mac either... or let's put it this way: I'm very uncomfortable with him as I kind of see him as a monomaniac on a crucade rather than a fair-minded innocent trying to get a hold of things in general.

Although to be honest I have to say that if he were a wolf there would have been an astounding amount of wolf-on-wolf voting in the first Days which I find a bit unbelievable. I mean you never know how much risks or what kind of show-offs wolves might wish to make but that lot of cross-voting between the wolves would be just meaningless and very risky indeed. Though let us not forget that we have no seer in this game and that might affect the boldness of the wolves.

[Thinlómien]

It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation).If it helps you, I have lately been giving passes only for Day1 and only for first-timers and people who haven't played for a long time.

I can kind of see where Boro is coming from with his "we must lynch Wilwa now" speech, and currently it seems like the best option too. However, I don't think people should always try to get their top suspect lynched: often you find out later they're actually not that bad or someone else is more guilty. I don't like it either how he pressures on Wilwa getting lynched, but that's more like a principle thing than actually disagreeing with him about her.

And I'm still going to have a look at my theory, but it doesn't prevent me from seriously considering voting Wilwa toDay, especially if I'm the other option for lynch. I feel slightly heartless by saying this, but we can afford losing an innocent toDay (and yes I'm aware this applies to me too, but of course I'd rather not die).

[Loslote]

I'm not too happy with Mac either... or let's put it this way: I'm very uncomfortable with him as I kind of see him as a monomaniac on a crucade rather than a fair-minded innocent trying to get a hold of things in general.

This doesn't exactly come as a surprise. Nog, most of what the two of you have been saying has been "Mac/Nog must be a wolf!!", with you also throwing in some "we'd better kill Lottie"s and one "please bold names". We get the point. Could you maybe get out of your little rut and say something new? Even if you're right and Mac is a wolf, there's another one out there. How about looking for them? Your last post was better. Keep it up.

Mac, this goes for you, too.

EDIT: xed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Love your attitude, Loslote. :D :smokin:

[Nerwen]

Okay, don't let's all vote for the same person.

++Sally.

What with seeming to know Nienna was innocent after she was done for but before her role was announced, and her "secret-role-that's-forbidden-to-reveal" theory, and her rushing to say how astonished she was by Eomer's death– I think she looks about as bad as Wilwa, anyway.

[Nogrod]

There's Juventus - Bayern München on telly right now and I'm torn between the match and the game... :rolleyes:

Could you maybe get out of your little rut and say something new?And it's actually me you're addressing with this? Of all the people I'm the one who says nothing new? We must live in some parallel universes... :D

Well to continue where I left... I'm getting a bit bad vibes from Boro as well looking at all that rambling about himself being not suspected for the right reasons and suspected for the wrong ones... or how secure he seems to be with his theories. I mean let's remember the wolves can be confident about their views but for innocents it's rare treat to be able to be that assured about one's own conclusions.

Also he makes a nice back-pedalling there saying that if he's wrong he has still acted in a logical and innocent manner. Kind of brings back to my mind the first Days when he was all the time saying how he can't be a wolf as a Boro-wolf would not act like he acted.

[Nerwen]

I have to go now. Good luck!

[Macalaure]

Here, reading, and disliking the voting so far.

[Thinlómien]

I want to lynch Wilwa. I suspect her the most and I know lynching her would ease my mind because then I wouldn't have to concentrate on her (or listen to Boro shouting she's guilty :p).

But now Nerwen makes it difficult for me. Because I'm wondering if our original pack could've been Pitch, Mnemo, Sally & Nogrod. 'Cos that kind of makes perfect sense (except for Pitch's vote for Sally on Day3).

So, whether I should go for my top suspect or top theory? It's a tough choice, but (fortunately?) it might not be mine to make, given that I have the most votes at the moment (although I'm quite optimistic about not getting any more).


edit: xed with Mac

[Nogrod]

Talking of Sally then... I'm a bit uneasy of the way she keeps supporting me and my thoughts - even defending me from a few of Mac's most ill- / half-thought suspicions (which was good work though, you got them right indeed).

There's an eerie similarity with the way Mnemo tried to be nice and "believing" with me and Roa to keep us from turning to look at her with suspicious eyes feeling nice and cozy about her... But yes, that might work with some people, but it doesn't work with me as I tend to grow suspicious the more someone agrees with me and says how inncent I must be. Buddying up is almost always a bad sign.

Because I'm wondering if our original pack could've been Pitch, Mnemo, Sally & Nogrod. 'Cos that kind of makes perfect sense (except for Pitch's vote for Sally on Day3).Think of the number of w-on-w votes and added strong suspicions - and the devastating result... That would have been the most stupid wolf-bunch I've ever seen. I probably should get offended seeing you suggesting I would be a part of such foolery... :confused:

Juventus - Bayern München 1-1, back in a moment...

[Macalaure]

If they have the time, I'd think wolves would want to analyse more. Because with an analysis, they can build a better case against an innocent to get them lynched.
I think many players find that difficult. I mean, you have to make up all those arguments and then stand by them.

Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?
I guess you're not as innocent to others as you are to me...

Shasta, you keep on repeating that I'm very suspicious because of my interactions with Pitch. Please, do analyse me just so that you either let go of it or come up with something new. ;)

A misguided Sally-waggon, a very misguided Lommy-waggon, Boro being too hard-headed to let go of Wilwa, and Lommy having no sense either. *sigh*

I have a mighty bad feeling about Brinn lately. I wish I had analysed her instead of Nogrod so I could verify it.

Talking about Nogrod, is mild dismissal all I get in response to my analysis? That's a bit disappointing. :( ;)

[satansaloser2005]

This doesn't exactly come as a surprise. Nog, most of what the two of you have been saying has been "Mac/Nog must be a wolf!!", with you also throwing in some "we'd better kill Lottie"s and one "please bold names". We get the point. Could you maybe get out of your little rut and say something new? Even if you're right and Mac is a wolf, there's another one out there. How about looking for them? Your last post was better. Keep it up.

Mac, this goes for you, too.

EDIT: xed with Lommy

This post is gorgeous. I'm just saying.

Okay, don't let's all vote for the same person.

++Sally.

What with seeming to know Nienna was innocent after she was done for but before her role was announced, and her "secret-role-that's-forbidden-to-reveal" theory, and her rushing to say how astonished she was by Eomer's death– I think she looks about as bad as Wilwa, anyway.

Oooo nice to see a change of- erm, never mind. I knew (or rather thought) Nienna was innocent because of something she'd said earlier in the Day which made me drop my suspicion of her, and besides, Shasta's actions made me quite cross. And believe me, I was shocked to see Eomer dead. I'd rather expected Nogrod to be attacked that Night, so when I saw Eomer dead it was a bit of a surprise.

So I picked up on Nienna's innocence (and then didn't vote to kill her) and was surprised because I didn't know who was going to be killed at Night. Yes, certainly. I must be a wolf. Would you care for me to Nilp myself?

:rolleyes:



Anyway, I'm caught up now. Sorry I was gone so long; after thawing out I did quite a bit of housework and the time got away from me. I'm suspecting Lommie less and less, but if we kill Wilwa toDay and she turns out innocent that will change drastically. Nerwen has shoddy reasoning (on me at least) but I'm not convinced she's evil, so I'm certainly not voting for her. Brinn's dropped off my radar again which I dislike and no matter how much I hunt for Shasta's innocence it simply doesn't reveal itself. I'm quite sad, because I'm really confused with him. Basically I think I'll be voting for Wilwa toDay, though that also seems far too easy of a choice.


Look, Nog. I even bolded! :p


EDIT: x'd since....since Nerwen saying she was leaving I believe

[Thinlómien]

Think of the number of w-on-w votes and added strong suspicions - and the devastating result... That would have been the most stupid wolf-bunch I've ever seen. I probably should get offended seeing you suggesting I would be a part of such foolery... :confused:

says the person who said just a few hours earlier:

Though let us not forget that we have no seer in this game and that might affect the boldness of the wolves.

With the pack I suggest, I don't think there are more w-on-w votes than
Pitch for Mnemo (surely a wolf-on-wolf)
you for Mnemo the Day she was lynched (but your vote came so late it didn't count)
Pitch for Sally on Day3
you and Sally for Pitch on Day3 (obviously)
unless I'm mistaken.

so I don't think that that's any more than with any other speculation flying around in this village.


edit: xed with Mac and Sally

[wilwarin538]

For the sake of consistency and to make me feel better

++ Boromir

[Macalaure]

Because I'm wondering if our original pack could've been Pitch, Mnemo, Sally & Nogrod.

Switch Sally to Brinn and I'm in.

[Thinlómien]

Mac, what is sense then? Suspecting Nog and Brinn?

edit: xed with Mac (I see :D) and Wilwa (now this goes interesting)

[satansaloser2005]

Switch Sally to Brinn and I'm in.

I'm not trying to be opportunistic, but if Wilwa is not an option for you toDay I would also support lynching Brinn. I'm too undecided on Lommie at this moment and Wilwa's vote for Boro isn't making me the happiest.


EDIT: x'd with Lommie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

With half an hour to go before deadline, possibly the earliest I've voted in a long time...

++Wilwa

And now I really must dash (look at me, sounding so British :p).

[Macalaure]

Mac, what is sense then? Suspecting Nog and Brinn?

Yes. :p

Nah, I'm sorry. I just don't get a wolfish feel from Wilwa anymore, and I guess I expect you and Boro to feel the same. All five (edit: all six...) votes cast toDay are for people who I think are not wolves. Most likely, one of them will be lynched. It's quite frustrating. I don't share the optimism Nogrod voiced earlier toDay at all. I think the remaining two are snugly safe. (Except from me, of course. ;) )

[Loslote]

Well to continue where I left... I'm getting a bit bad vibes from Boro as well looking at all that rambling about himself being not suspected for the right reasons and suspected for the wrong ones... or how secure he seems to be with his theories. I mean let's remember the wolves can be confident about their views but for innocents it's rare treat to be able to be that assured about one's own conclusions.

Well, at least you aren't yelling "kill Mac"...still, I don't agree. Boro doesn't seem suspicious to me, and I don't know why you and Wilwa seem to think he is.

I'd be happy with lynching either Lommy or Wilwa. Not so much Brinn or Boro. Then again, I've already voted, so it doesn't really matter, does it?

EDIT: xed with Shasta and Mac

[Nogrod]

It's also interesting that if you Lommy are prepared to believe in such an amount of w-on-w case-making, decisive voting etc. leading to two of the wolves involved dying pretty fast, then why don't you consider Mac? His to and fro with Pitch is undobtedly suspicious as it would fit perfectly.

If you or Mac need points on that, just check my post from yesterDay where I analysed people's reactions to Pitchie.

you for Mnemo the Day she was lynched (but your vote came so late it didn't count)What? My vote actually killed her making it practically impossible for anyone to top her votes... :)

is mild dismissal all I get in response to my analysis? That's a bit disappointing.I'm not sure I wish to use the last minutes of the Day into refuting them... And actually Sally made a few good points already. But if we're around toMorrow I'll promise to answer them.

[Thinlómien]

I'm not trying to be opportunistic, but if Wilwa is not an option for you toDay I would also support lynching Brinn. I'm too undecided on Lommie at this moment and Wilwa's vote for Boro isn't making me the happiest.I know I've been suspecting Brinn for a few Days now but I'm not mentally prepared to lynch her... eek. Well I'd either better prepare myself or simply not vote her. *will go check her analysis post from yesterDay and what it says about Brinn* In any case, I will not vote for Brinn unless two people vote her before me, because I'm not risking my neck for getting her lynched while I could save it with voting Wilwa (whom I suspect at least as much as Brinn).

edit: xed with Mac, Nog and Los

[satansaloser2005]

Talking of Sally then... I'm a bit uneasy of the way she keeps supporting me and my thoughts - even defending me from a few of Mac's most ill- / half-thought suspicions (which was good work though, you got them right indeed).

Nog, I wasn't so much defending you as bringing forth another point of view. Knowing Mnemo as I do I (hope I) can understand her fairly well and I just don't think she would go that far overboard with w-o-w actions.


EDIT: x'd with Lommie

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa's vote for Boro isn't making me the happiest.


What else was I supposed to do? I don't think I've ever had a game were I don't suspect anyone on Day 5, so I don't really know how to handle it. I suppose it'd be logical for me to vote Lommy to save myself, but I don't really see anything wrong with her. And really everyone has been set on lynching me for the last 3 days and when I defend myself I then just look "too defensive" and look even worse.. So......I don't really know what else to do. Honestly.

[Thinlómien]

It's also interesting that if you Lommy are prepared to believe in such an amount of w-on-w case-making, decisive voting etc. leading to two of the wolves involved dying pretty fast, then why don't you consider Mac? His to and fro with Pitch is undobtedly suspicious as it would fit perfectly.Didn't you read my post? With Mac alone there's as much w-on-w voting as with you and Sally combined.

What? My vote actually killed her making it practically impossible for anyone to topI can check the vote count for you (useless to argue with it) but I think it was the vote before you that really did the job.


edit: xed with Wilwa

[satansaloser2005]

What else was I supposed to do? I don't think I've ever had a game were I don't suspect anyone on Day 5, so I don't really know how to handle it. I suppose it'd be logical for me to vote Lommy to save myself, but I don't really see anything wrong with her. And really everyone has been set on lynching me for the last 3 days and when I defend myself I then just look "too defensive" and look even worse.. So......I don't really know what else to do. Honestly.

Understandable. I should have made it more clear; your vote for Boro doesn't make me happy specifically in that I don't plan to follow it. If you suspect him, that's fine, but I'm not going to follow you because I don't agree, regardless of my opinion of you.

And Lommie, re: Brinn fair enough. I'd be okay with Wilwa as well but am offering Brinn as a second option for those who aren't as sure of her (Wilwa's) guilt.

EDIT: x'd with Lommie

[Thinlómien]

*headache*

I was wondering if Wilwa giving up means she's innocent or guilty.

Her latest post could be a wolf playing the martyr card or just a frustrated innocent (or a frustrated wolf! been there, done that).

...

*now really off to check my Brinn facts and Nogrod's vote count*

[Macalaure]

People are actually considering Brinn? *surprised*

I don't have a case against her, so if I'm wrong I will catch fire toMorrow, but I'm willing to try it. However, if it's not safe, I'd rather vote Wilwa (because I might be wrong and it would take people's minds off her) than lose Lommy.

[Loslote]

Vote count:

Me -> Lommy
Morsul -> Sally
Brinn -> Lommy (2)
Boro -> wilwa
Nerwen -> Sally (2)
wilwa -> Boro
Shasta -> wilwa (2)


EDIT: xed since Lommy

[Loslote]

It is kind of interesting that Wilwa and Boro voted for each other. Almost as interesting as the MacaNog thing. Just throwing that out there.

[Thinlómien]

Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)
Well that's not proof of guilt but not proof of innocence either. I don't like her vote for me toDay either...

(I can't really find the vote count for Day2 right now, so Nogrod, let's postpone this debate for toMorrow, you will be undoubtedly be alive then...)

edit: xed with Loslote

[Macalaure]

Lommy, that's what I've been thinking, too. Wilwa started her resignation quite early toDay, and even right now her chances of survival are considerable (she didn't vote to save herself!). It could be a bluff, certainly, but I don't believe it.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, even a crazy Boro+Wilwa combination has occured to me too... :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Lommy, that's what I've been thinking, too. Wilwa started her resignation quite early toDay, and even right now her chances of survival are considerable (she didn't vote to save herself!). It could be a bluff, certainly, but I don't believe it.Well it's either a depressed wolf or a depressed innocent and according to my experience, wolves tend to get more depressed because of suspicion (because it "proves" they haven't been playing well, or something).

[Nogrod]

Didn't you read my post? With Mac alone there's as much w-on-w voting as with you and Sally combined.? I think we are not talking about same things here... or something. I just don't get what you mean. What I meant is that if me or Mac was a wolf the way the wolfpack acted would have been ridiculous, stupid and self-distructive. And therefore I'm going to let Mac be for now even if I have other reasons to suspect him.

I can check the vote count for you (useless to argue with it) but I think it was the vote before you that really did the job.
I could have made it 5-5 or 6-4 (I did the latter). Sorry. If I was a wolf, why would I try to lie on such an easily checked matter? I really start considering to add to your votes... I mean that is so futile.

[Bes]

Wilwa, Sally, Lommy, or a throw away vote. And any vote that isn't for Wilwa is looking more and more like a throw-away anyway. Looking back, I don't suspect Wilwa very much, though. I'm having trouble reading Sally... So that leaves Lommy, who is very sure that Wilwa is a wolf, in addition to Nog who I admittedly suspected for a long while, and more or less dropped in frustration (See statement regarding Sally).

Fark. Not much time left, so I'll say...

++Lommy

Edit: Crossed with lots, and either I or Lottie miscounted the votes so far.

[wilwarin538]

Well it's either a depressed wolf or a depressed innocent and according to my experience, wolves tend to get more depressed because of suspicion (because it "proves" they haven't been playing well, or something).

Or they're innocent and it proves they suck as innocents, which should technically be the easiest role to play. It is depressing. :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Okay, Bes, you leave me no other choice

++Wilwa

although I'm not confident on her unlike you claim.

[satansaloser2005]

People are actually considering Brinn? *surprised*

I don't have a case against her, so if I'm wrong I will catch fire toMorrow, but I'm willing to try it. However, if it's not safe, I'd rather vote Wilwa (because I might be wrong and it would take people's minds off her) than lose Lommy.

Wilwa, Sally, Lommy, or a throw away vote. And any vote that isn't for Wilwa is looking more and more like a throw-away anyway. Looking back, I don't suspect Wilwa very much, though. I'm having trouble reading Sally... So that leaves Lommy, who is very sure that Wilwa is a wolf, in addition to Nog who I admittedly suspected for a long while, and more or less dropped in frustration (See statement regarding Sally).

Fark. Not much time left, so I'll say...

++Lommy



What. The. Heck?

[Macalaure]

I guess we won't be able to summon a fourth Brinn vote now.

[Nogrod]

Lommy, that's what I've been thinking, too. Wilwa started her resignation quite early toDay, and even right now her chances of survival are considerable (she didn't vote to save herself!). It could be a bluff, certainly, but I don't believe it.As I said earlier... Wilwa is playing it "over-innocent". That's what bugs me about her.

[satansaloser2005]

My last post x'd with Lommie and Wilwa. Also, the internet's being hateful. *pets it*

[Macalaure]

++Wilwa...

[satansaloser2005]

I guess we won't be able to summon a fourth Brinn vote now.

Meh. Wilwa's fine with me too. I'm just generally confused. :(

[satansaloser2005]

++Wilwa


Sorry, sweetheart, but out of the people on the block you're the most suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

I could have made it 5-5 or 6-4 (I did the latter). Sorry. If I was a wolf, why would I try to lie on such an easily checked matter? I really start considering to add to your votes... I mean that is so futile.I already said wolves don't lie about facts intentionally, but I think you could easily misremember because it actually doesn't fit with my recollection of the same event, so I wasn't sure which one of us is right. If you swear your memory is correct, I can trust you, but otherwise, I need to check (toMorrow, if I'm still alive).

edit: xed with everybody

[wilwarin538]

Sorry, sweetheart, but out of the people on the block you're the most suspicious.

Meh, I understand dearie. You gotta do what ya gotta do.

[satansaloser2005]

Meh, I understand dearie. You gotta do what ya gotta do.

Indeed.


Vote count

Lottie-> Lommy
Morsul -> Sally
Brinn -> Lommy (2)
Boro -> wilwa
Nerwen -> Sally (2)
wilwa -> Boro
Shasta -> wilwa (2)
Bes-->Lommie (3)
Lommie-->Wilwa (3)
Mac-->Wilwa (4)
Sally-->Wilwa (5)

Anyone left to vote?

[Nogrod]

I'm tempted to vote for Lommy and to give a chance for someone to actually lynch her just out of frustration with her.

But let us see that in a bright Daylight - if alive.

++ Wilwa

For playing over-innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Sorry dad. :p Cool down.

[Macalaure]

Me -> Lommy
....
Sally-->Wilwa (5)

I take it that Lottie is your sock puppet? ;) :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

DEADLINE

Stop posting. You have lynched Wilwa. She was an ordinary innocent. Narration coming soon. Night folk may start doing their job.

[Nogrod]

Cool down.Nothing's heated darling... :)

[satansaloser2005]

I take it that Lottie is your sock puppet? ;) :p

Lol. Yeah, thanks. I just copy pasted. *fixes*


Wilwa at six.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It was after the death of our pilot when we turned with a new resolve towards the trouble that seemed to pursue us. It was inevitable to conclude that there must be another among us who is - however crude and unprofessional the term might sound - a Werewolf. But who was it? Much of the earlier evidence has been brought forward once again and in the end it was our senior crewmember who had been labeled as guilty of the murder of our pilot. She accepted her fate almost peacefully, and as we turned the guns against her, she merely closed her eyes and bowed her head in expectation. It was at that moment when it again crossed my mind, what have we become? The will for survival seemed stronger in us than anything else, and we felt no remorse for killing those whom we have found guilty. I guess it must seem terrible for the reader to hear that kind of confession, but one can hardly imagine the strain and the effort we made to remain mentally sane and not to just turn on one another in a second in that terrible prison of ice. Despite all we have gone through, we have remained the men and women of reason, and we were determined to end this horror in our midst.

In writing about this I have nothing to lose: it is indeed far more important to me than anything that the full and true account of what we have encountered in that remote and dreadful place reaches the public. I know that I may be awaiting a lifetime sentence, if not worse, but nothing of that stops me from reporting what had happened after we have mercilessly executed another of our team and we have descended further into that nightmarish cavern.

As indeed in a no short time we have decided that we must go on and uncover the mystery of this place, as we have been increasingly convinced that the ominous events among our crew and the retreat of the dying beast who has once been our chief marine biologist into this cavernous complex must be related. And so we picked one of the corridors, having no better lead, and marched on in a straight line, lighting our path with electric torches.

And it was indeed not very long - a few minutes at most - when we have entered a large space, and the flashlights illuminated something that filled us with awe and wonder.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler

GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot on her way back to the ship on Day 3 (innocent)
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company, killed by Werewolf on Night 4 (innocent)
Pitchwife - marine biologist - unambiguously executed by the expedition on Day 4 (Werewolf)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot - murdered in the icy darkness on Night 5 (innocent)
wilwa - crewmember - executed in the underground cavern on Day 5 (innocent)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The place we have entered was large in size, far larger than any of the other spaces we have passed through this far. Its walls have been of the same volcanic rock as everywhere else, yet there was something definitely unnatural about its almost hexagonal shape. Even though the stone walls were uneven, the geometry was striking. It was our glaciologist who later pointed out that such symmetry could hardly have been achieved by natural geological processes. But even if it were not for this affirmation, we could not have ignored what we saw on the northern wall - with its archway opening hewn in the black stone and with faded, yet curiously vivid graffito above it.

I can hardly describe our feelings as we beheld this subterranean wonder of the icy waste. Even with the most unusual events of the previous days in mind we would not have expected to find anything of this kind in this forgotten ice-sealed place.

The glyptic image atop of the wall was the most curious to our eyes, for it without any doubt bore witness to the presence of sentient beings in this complex, at least perhaps once upon a time when it has been formed. But what was it? Our palaeomathematician seemed particularly curious about it and he was the first one to start examining it. If it came down to its artistic value, it was crude at most, yet clear enough as to what it represented - a long mountain range stretching beneath the starry sky. The stars were represented in the form of small-diameter holes, distinguishible enough from the rest of the irregularities in the stone. But none of us had recognised what our palaeomathematician probably did already by that time and we saw nothing more to the glyph than an expression of some ancient art.

We have been in shock from the discovery, but still our main objective lay in front of us - and so we decided to finish our purpose in this underground labyrinth of volcanic rock, even though our minds have been mostly distracted by the thought of that peculiar graven image. We passed beneath its archway and went on. There was another crossing awaiting us nearby, and it was there where we have decided to rest, at least for a while. It must have been also at that time when our mathematician had decided to slip away to look once more at the curious carving.

None of us saw him leaving and I cannot explain how came we did not see his flashlight, but the fact is that after several minutes we heard his cry from the corridor through which we just came. Running to the place we found him lying beneath the archway with his arm almost torn off and blood dripping from his neck. He was still holding his notebook, now stained with blood, but we could still make out the last words he hastily noted before his death, no doubt relating to the mysterious carving:

No mistake. Resembles distinctly the constellations of Northern hemisphere, though some major differences. Ursa Major completely missing - why? Instead quizzical triangle made of 15 dots - equilateral. Why 15? Is also a hexagonal number - room - any connection? Is atomic number of phosphorus. In Hebrew 10-5 forbidden to write, forms the name of God. What other uses of 15 -

Apparently whichever conclusions our palaeomathematician might have reached have been interrupted before he could make them.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler

GONE:
Roa - survival guide - died on blood loss from Werewolf attack on Day 2 (left game, innocent)
Mnemosyne - field medic - shot by the survival guide on Day 2 (Werewolf)
Inziladun - meteorologist - killed by Werewolves on Night 3 (innocent)
tromkehra - cook/bartender - left aboard the ship on Day 3 (left game, innocent)
Nienna - navigator - shot on her way back to the ship on Day 3 (innocent)
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company, killed by Werewolf on Night 4 (innocent)
Pitchwife - marine biologist - unambiguously executed by the expedition on Day 4 (Werewolf)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot - murdered in the icy darkness on Night 5 (innocent)
wilwa - crewmember - executed in the underground cavern on Day 5 (innocent)
Macalaure - palaeomathematician - killed while performing his palaeomathematic operations on Night 6 (innocent)

Day 6 has started. Night folks, stop PMing. All people, start discussing. You know how it goes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What the crap.

After yesterday's voting, I had a great case for Mac and Lommy being the wolves... and I come back to find the wolves have killed Mac.

There are several stupid baseball analogies that I could make here, but I won't.

[Nogrod]

Darn! Dang! Drat! D'uh! *how many familyfriendly curses beginning with D there are?*

I had actually taken the risk of trusting I'm controversial enough to be alive and spent almost two hours analysing Mac during the afternoon (and I only got to somewhere in D2). Well, luckily I didn't finish it but waited to see first the results before continuing.

Like with Roa... all wasted... (well then I could be sure there would be no Night-kill)

I think this has been the first game I have actually used my time as an ordo during the Nights to actually do something for the game... and with this experience I'm afraid it will remain a solitary trial. :(


My gut reaction would be Boro now. Or Lommy.

But that's just a gut reaction. I need to go back there and look if there are any better reasons to suspect either of them. My bad feeling for Lommy comes from the last moments of yesterDay - which actually will look different now as Mac was innocent. And Boro for what I saw reading Mac back there the first Days - which might actually look different as well now that Mac is innocent.

Although there might also be the new perspective of one or both of them actually knowing they're interacting with an innocent... :eek:

So nothing better yet but bad feelings. I'll try to look back there with fresh eyes...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My mind is running in circles...

Mac stepped up his suspicion of Brinn hardcore yesterday.

Does this mean a Brinnwolf got scared and offed him?

Or are the wolves trying to frame Brinn?

[Boromir88]

I was going to post a defense for Mac today, thanks a lot wolves. :rolleyes:

After my wilwa crusade failed, I've caught up on reading and threw everyone into the "unknown" to take into account the new information (wilwa innocent and whoever the kill choice was today). I knew it wasn't going to be me, and I figure there will be justifiable suspicion against me. If you decide to lynch me, so be it, I won't be the worst loss...but if the wolves think I'm going down quietly they should have killed me sooner.

Since I have caught up on the days I missed (when Pitch was lynched and yesterday) Lottie's innocent. Shasta and Nerwen look the best.

I don't like Morsul. I don't like Lommy. I don't like sally. I don't like Nog. Bes and Brinn I'm unsure of.

Explanations to come.

[Thinlómien]

Well, this time I'm not surprised. Apart from Nogrod, everybody considered him innocent. Also, I was expecting either him or me to die toNight, because of a few comments he made yesterDay where he made clear he's pretty certain I'm innocent and he's willing to vote Wilwa to save me etc. I think those could easily have been thought of as signs of a gifted connection. I'm not sure if Mac actually meant to divert the wolves that way or whether he was just pretty sure of my innocence and not aware of how they could be interpreted. Anyway, I guess that's a secondary issue, the main point is why the wolves killed him. Better theories?

And speaking of him, I'm glad he was innocent and I was laying my trust on a trustworthy person. Seems like my judgement is not totally crappy. Although I did feel a bit crappy after Wilwa died, but then again, it could've been me, so from my point of view it was not a total disaster. And hey, we didn't lynch a gifted either.

And as for who are the wolves, I have no idea. I would like to continue on my Nog&Sally speculation but seemingly Nogrod gets all heated up if I start the topic. :rolleyes: I'm still suspicious of Brinn, although now that I was wrong about Wilwa, I wouldn't somehow be surprised if I was wrong about her too. I think I need to reconsider Boro and Morsul, and especially Bes and Nerwen. Shasta is the only one I currently feel good about.

[Nogrod]

Okay, sorry I got distracted and I have an early morning call tomorrow... so this is nothing near to what I thought I would do. So only a few points from yesterDay

Boro you make quite a show of your "reasoning" and "facts", but looking at things toDay and comaparing it to your vote on Wilwa makes one think again.
I'm willing to stand by that vote and bet she's a wolf. If not, than I'll accept the consequences. I'm just asking you trust the info, and me, above crap-shoot shot in the dark misgivings about being fooled.So what might be the manner of your "accepting the consequences"? :)

Also you seem to really press hard on it... this is your post quite soon after the previous I quoted: If we are wrong, at least we made a logical and wise lynch based on sound reasons which have less of a chance of turning out to be a crippling lynch than deciding we drop the suspicion on them and go for conspiracy theories about someone double or triple bluffing.Securing your back already then?

Well Boro could go either way (what I pointed out was little and things I suspected him on on the basis of D1 were mainly depending on the assumption that Mac was a wolf). I need to look at him more carefully later though just to be a bit safer with him - or actually suspect him.


Lommy, you go seriously to and fro with Wilwa with first just saying she gives "wolvish vibes" enough to make her your top candidate (which is actually quite odd looking at her first post you point at... I mean she speaks sense there, like it or not; and you say yourself that: "more so on the first than on the second reading, though.") - and when it starts to look she is going to bite the dust you start back-pedalling with your "alternative theory"... even if I have to admit it being an ingenious move to showcase a choice between a top suspect and a top-theory! :rolleyes:

But then you go on twisting perfectly checkable facts to back your "theory" and start fishing Mac's help with the lynch of another fish.

Btw. Lommy: you say "I can't really find the vote count for Day2 right now, so Nogrod, let's postpone this debate for toMorrow". In what order people de facto voted is no case for a debate... but a fact easily checkable.

I hate it when people try to mislead others with fiction to get people lynched or suspected at last minutes. And it's hard to see an innocent intention behind that kind of moves. If you were innocent you wouldn't have acted that way as you would have been worried about actually having it wrong and thus helping an innocent to die / be painted black.

It actually fits quite well that you raised this "concern" in the last hour of the Day buddying with Mac and then killed him the next Night...


And in every sense I must say that your last post looks much more worse than Wilwa's first yesterDay. I mean what did it consist of?

- You were not surprised (you learned: last time you played surprised and people suspected you for it)

- Mac was innocent and "made clear" he was ready to vote wilwa to save you as he realised you were innocent!!! (so everyone else should follow his lead and trust you as he did so)

- Probably not the gifted-connection (well not as he was no gifted), but another point how sure he (an innocent) was of your innocence - and how you we're afraid as being looked as a gifted by the wolves... (without your own liking - or effort to be looked like that by us?)

- Your judgement is good indeeed in this game as you backed the right horse that Day. Although you of course felt crappy when wilwa died... (here your double-act works: you can both push wilwa to death and still reserve youurself a right to show a face of "I told I had better ideas")

- I will just get heated up if you continue your speculation of me being a wolf... (a nice 100% proof defence. If I suspect you, you can just say I'm "heated"... right?)

Quite nice Lommy... but so fabricated and calculated (how can you fit that many messages into one post? *bows*) that it actually makes me consider you as my suspect number one right now.

And I'm quite cool with it. :cool:

Now good night....

[Thinlómien]

Boromir88
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: hardly any interaction
interactions with Pitch: very little interaction to point to any direction
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Inzil, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: his slight interaction with the wolves don't point at any direction, it could be avoiding interaction or just random. His voting record could be suspected - on the two first Days it's pretty terrible and whatever Mac says, him starting the Wilwa-wagon yesterDay doesn't make him look particularily innocent. If Wilwa is a wolf, of course, then it's different, but I'm not making that assumption (yet). Anyway, his general manner seems to me very innocent, so his slightly questionable voting record (especially as he has aknowledged it himself) or the lack of interaction with known wolves (especially as that doesn't even suggest anything per se) doesn't sway it. Far more innocent than guilty, but if he keeps doing bad stuff, I might have to reconsider.
It really bugs me, because my gut says he's innocent and my reason says he's guilty. Just look at the evidence, it's pretty bad. But then again, his manner is exactly like it is when he's innocent. Crap.

Morsul
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: looks slightly as if Mnemo could've been casting some shoddy wolf-on-wolf suspicion on him
interactions with Pitch: some buddiness (but is that merely because they started wwing at the same time?)
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Morsul
conclusion: now this is interesting... Morsul's interactions with the wolves look a bit bad and his voting record wavers between good and bad. The Day2 vote was quite fishy, but I'm not sure a wolf-Morsul would vote himself... It's tough, I don't suspect him really but he's definitely fallen from the "tsut tsut innocent baby" category to somewhere lower...Well to be honest, he's been a bit under my radar. The evidence could mean he's guilty, but then again, I'm still unsure if he'd really have the guts to self-vote as wolf.

Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)The way Brinn reacted to my suspicion of her was sort of really defensive, which makes me wonder if she's just an innocent offended to be suspected on stupid (?) reasons, or whether she's a jumpy wolf. I definitely didn't like her opportunistic vote for me yesterDay, but that could be just because I don't like it when people suspect me when I'm innocent (or guilty, for that matter and actually I do like being suspected a bit because otherwise it's boring). I still think there's something wrong with her manner, though.

Nogrod
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: she seems to trust him, he doesn't trust her
interactions with Pitch: goes with the popular trend of suspecting Pitch and then letting go of it
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: his interactions with the wolves don't really tell us much: they seem both innocent and lupine at the same time. I still don't like his frenzy-attack on Roa on Day1 and his vote for Mnemo didn't matter. Also if at least one of Sally&Wilwa is a wolf, he definitely bears watching. For now, I wouldn't be too aggressively for bashing him, but I'm definitely watching him.I'm taking his word for making the decisive vote on Mnemo, but knowing him, that doesn't make him actually look much better. Also, him starting to suspect me recently makes him look bad in my eyes: it feels (sorry to overuse the word) opportunistic and sort of also it feels like he's trying to pressure me to do something, maybe give up on him and Sally?

sally
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: rather fishy friendliness and banter (although as we all know they are RL friends)
interactions with Pitch: slight suspicion from her towards him, he votes her on Day3
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Lottie, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: if there wasn't Pitch's vote for Sally (like Mac said he could've voted Nienna based on what he had said before), I would be very very worried of Sally - trying to save Mnemo and having wolf-on-wolf like suspicions of Pitch - but now I guess I have to consider her quite innocent.Well it's the same: her record looks bad except for the extremely contradictory vote of Pitch's against her.

Nerwen
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: low
interactions with Mnemo: she did make a case against her
interactions with Pitch: she considered him innocent based on Mnemo's guilt
voting record: Day1 Mac (didn't count), Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: her consistent suspicion against Mnemo looks good, exonerating Pitch based on that doesn't (although half of the village did that). Looks more innocent than guilty, but I don't like it that people take her innocence for granted.I don't know, I want to hear more of her.

Bes
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: not much
interactions with Pitch: some mutual suspicion
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 no vote, Day3 Lottie
conclusion: well, this doesn't sway my opinion to any direction. Generally he seems so confused that if he's a wolf I think he's fellows would've already helped him out and clarified the rules for him.I don't know... what I said about his confusion still holds, but I definitely didn't like his vote for me yesterDay because it wasn't grounded in any way and it didn't make any sense to me.

Shasta
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: he defended her
interactions with Pitch: not much except some late-emergent suspicion against him on Day3
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Nerwen, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: it really looks quite bad, but possibly too bad to be bad.I'm currently thinking his innocent, even with some of these bad facts.

I seem to have reached the stage of paranoia where I suspect everybody (except for Shasta)... the good news is that almost whoever gets lynched, I'm happy. :rolleyes:


edit: xed with Nogrod

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod, Nogrod, Nogrod... this will be a full-blown war, I assure you, because to me your latest post just screams wolvery. I was waiting to see who would jump on my theory about Mac getting killed first, and you have incriminated yourself by jumping on that. A seasoned player like yourself, you wouldn't have jumped on it like that if you were innocent and really thinking about it. (Not suggesting that my theory is so right you should believe it, but merely that suggesting a hypothesis that assumes my own innocence doesn't make me a wolf and that knowing me, as a wolf under serious scrutiny, I wouldn't definitely say anything like that, but that's a side issue. You can't know that because you're not me, so you have no "duty" to believe it.)

Lommy, you go seriously to and fro with Wilwa with first just saying she gives "wolvish vibes" enough to make her your top candidate (which is actually quite odd looking at her first post you point at... I mean she speaks sense there, like it or not; and you say yourself that: "more so on the first than on the second reading, though.") - and when it starts to look she is going to bite the dust you start back-pedalling with your "alternative theory"... even if I have to admit it being an ingenious move to showcase a choice between a top suspect and a top-theory!Rubbish. (Ha, Roa you should be proud of me. :p) Of course I was wavering. Every sensible innocent is wavering with their suspicions unless they have divine inspiration. I didn't claim Wilwa didn't make sense, I just said I got wolvish vibes. You question me because I went more with my first impression than with the second - what's the problem with that? Second impression is no gut-feeling anymore.

As for back-pedaling and alternative theory, I had been thinking of that alternative theory the whole Day, to be honest, but didn't say it aloud. Why? There is, to me, an obvious connection between you and Sally. You co-operate. She spends a whole post discussing points for and against your innocence. This could point at two things and that was why I was wondering whether to bring it up at all or not: I suspected the two of you, but I didn't want to risk the chance you were our gifted.

So, maybe stupidly, I settled on this vague "theory" thing after much debate and posted it. The time I posted it had nothing to do with what other people were saying but with when I had time to think about it. Why am I saying this aloud now? Because it seems obvious to me that you two can't be our gifted because you are a wolf. There, feeling better?

PS. You have absolutely no right to claim the moral highground about the Wilwa lynch, btw. I was at least forced to vote her to save my life, unlike you. (Not that there would've been no chance for me to vote her otherwise, but I was pondering between her and Brinn before Bes came and made my decision for me.)

But then you go on twisting perfectly checkable facts to back your "theory" and start fishing Mac's help with the lynch of another fish.Twisting checkable facts? Me? It's you who's doing that. I did not start the Brinn-thingy, it was either Mac or Sally, I joined it. If I was a wolf, why wouldn't I just have sticked with Wilwa and make sure my life is saved? I would've had believeable grounds for doing that taking into account all my expressed suspicion of her earlier.

And as for the vote count, I was not twisting any facts or accusing you of such. *stomps feet* How many times in this game do I have to say that if you ask me WOLVES DO NOT TWIST FACTS INTENTIONALLY because that's plain stupid! They may make mistakes, just as us others.

Btw. Lommy: you say "I can't really find the vote count for Day2 right now, so Nogrod, let's postpone this debate for toMorrow". In what order people de facto voted is no case for a debate... but a fact easily checkable.Now you're again misunderstanding me badly, either intentionally or unintentionally. I was merely saying I'm not talking with you about the actual issue until I have my facts right. I thought I had my facts right. You had them differently. I was not sure which one of us is right so I wanted to check before discussing further. Is this wolvish in your opinion? Last time I looked, misremembering wasn't a crime.

I hate it when people try to mislead others with fiction to get people lynched or suspected at last minutes. And it's hard to see an innocent intention behind that kind of moves. If you were innocent you wouldn't have acted that way as you would have been worried about actually having it wrong and thus helping an innocent to die / be painted black.What? You could've been lynched? Guess what? Only a wolf can be that paranoid. There was absolutely no chance of you getting lynched yesterDay, that should've been clear. Your point is very weak anyway: what bad is it for an innocent to be merely suspected in the last minutes? If something, it's good because it helps you survive until the next Day. (You should be grateful. :p) And I was actually worried my facts were wrong, just go and see.

It actually fits quite well that you raised this "concern" in the last hour of the Day buddying with Mac and then killed him the next Night...I didn't kill him. I might be smart enough to have something like that, but I don't think I'm ruthless enough.

And in every sense I must say that your last post looks much more worse than Wilwa's first yesterDay. I mean what did it consist of?And here poor Wolfgrod falls into the trap of making a mountain out of a molehill... here we go...

- You were not surprised (you learned: last time you played surprised and people suspected you for it)Hey please, that is ridiculous. If I had thought there was something wrong with my surprise yesterDay and wanted to act less suspiciously, I would not have commented on the predictability of the death at all toDay.

- Mac was innocent and "made clear" he was ready to vote wilwa to save you as he realised you were innocent!!! (so everyone else should follow his lead and trust you as he did so)Well that is true, go and see! I'm not claiming everybody should follow his lead and trust me. You all have to make up your own mind. If you need to follow someone's lead on me, follow my own. I have the best knowledge of my role in this village. But it would be just as stupid for you to blindly follow my opinion of myself as Mac's opinion on me.

- Probably not the gifted-connection (well not as he was no gifted), but another point how sure he (an innocent) was of your innocence - and how you we're afraid as being looked as a gifted by the wolves... (without your own liking - or effort to be looked like that by us?)...what? I was not afraid to be looked as a gifted by the wolves. If me shouting "I'm the ranger I'm the ranger" would make the wolves go for me instead of him/her, I would do that. Usually as an ordo I'm not trying to set myself up as a gifted for the simple reason that I'm selfish and don't want to die, but I don't definitely fear looking gifted because I know I'm less valuable than a real gifted. And I have no intention of misleading the innocent to think I'm gifted, because I have no reason for that (at least now, not toDay in this game).

- Your judgement is good indeeed in this game as you backed the right horse that Day. Although you of course felt crappy when wilwa died... (here your double-act works: you can both push wilwa to death and still reserve youurself a right to show a face of "I told I had better ideas")I didn't say I had better ideas! I had other ideas, not better ideas. This point seems to me that you're just trying to make everything I do look suspicious, there's no point in this point. "You have good judgement ergo you're a wolf." Thanks a lot.

- I will just get heated up if you continue your speculation of me being a wolf... (a nice 100% proof defence. If I suspect you, you can just say I'm "heated"... right?)No, dear, I won't say you're heated... I say you are a wolf who has decided to get me lynched toDay. Nice. And I made that comment because I didn't like the way you started going berserk when I disagreed with your facts. So you can take it as a mild sarcastic offense at your direction... and although I promised not to say that, what is this reply to that if not heated? *insert a mischevious smiley here*

Quite nice Lommy... but so fabricated and calculated (how can you fit that many messages into one post? *bows*) that it actually makes me consider you as my suspect number one right now.Oh that is exactly the kind of statement that makes me want to hit the person who said that with something heavy and makes me write a defense smoke rising from my keyboard. *takes a deep relaxing breath* Thank you, but save your compliments for someone who deserves them. Like, next time you see a mirror, that might be a good line. ;)

Okay and now I'm either off to sleep or write an RPG post but I feel like a pause from ww would do good... *still has smoke rising from keyboard and ears*

[Loslote]

*sigh* First we had NogRoa, then Roa left and Nog became MacaNog, and now Mac's died and it looks like we've got a NogLommy brewing, too! This is not to mention WilBoro and MorSally...

At least SalLottie was thoughtful enough to admit that they're the same person:

Vote count

Me-> Lommy
~~~
Sally-->Wilwa (5)

(And yes, I know you fixed it, I just thought that was hilarious ;) )

[Loslote]

Oh, and I still suspect Lommy. I will probably vote her. I'll have to vote really soon, too, because I don't have nearly as much time as I'd like toDay.

[Loslote]

Anyone? *sigh*

Well, then, I guess there's no real reason to put it off.

++Lommy

take three...

[Brinniel]

Or are the wolves trying to frame Brinn?
Well, I don't know if they were intentionally trying to frame me or at least I doubt that was their main motive for killing Mac. I don't think wolves often kill someone just to frame an innocent; if someone's framed, it's usually a bonus.

Also, I was expecting either him or me to die toNight
You thought you would be killed last Night? Really? After being fairly suspected yesterDay and wilwa turning out innocent? I'm not buying it. :rolleyes:

Yeah, I'm pretty much convinced Lommy is a wolf and she can try to defend herself all she wants, but I highly doubt she could change my mind on this. I would really like to see Lommy lynched toDay because until I know for sure whether I'm right, I'm going to have a lot of trouble focusing on anyone else. Every post she makes seems to seep with evil juice and it's bothering me so much. And knowing her role would tell us so much. Gah, I just have to be right about this! *is attempting to channel Shasta's psychic abilities*

Nogrod is looking innocent to me. Not only because he also suspects Lommy, but partly because of him mentioning the effort he's put into analysing at Night only for it to be for nothing, and obviously a wolf wouldn't spend hours analysing someone they're planning to kill off. Of course he could be just lying, but his comments and frustration over it felt sincere to me.

So that attempted last minute bandwagon against me yesterDay I find very suspicious since many last minute bandwagons in the past involved a wolf. It's one reason why I'm surprised to find Mac Night killed, as his death obviously clears him. It's one of the many reasons I find Lommy suspicious; the way she casually said she could go for a Brinn lynch, but wasn't trying to push for it too much. Reminds me of something I've done as a wolf in previous games. Sally I think was the one who first suggested it, which makes her look quite bad. But I don't think she and Lommy are both wolves as I would imagine the final two would spread themselves out a little more. But if I'm wrong about Lommy then Sally needs to be seriously examined.

[Morsul the Dark]

Here... Reading... Mac Gone... Hmm... I knew my first day vote wasn't the best but I really thought I might have been on to something...

10 left 2 wolves... 20% let's do this people!

Have to clean the apartment will be on most of tomorrow...

Recap


Wolf:
Sally still suspicious... More suspicious now. if only because she's still alive.

Bad:
Lommy highly suspicious to everyone also in the Wilwa Wagon... However this is hearsay... need to look into her myself...

Bes: playing the newbie card to full potential... I did that not good sign

Everyone else not sure about except one person...

Innocent:

Morsul

Clearly need to broaden my scope...

[Bes]

Innocent:

Morsul

Clearly need to broaden my scope...

Subtle. :p

[Morsul the Dark]

What? I am the only one I'm sure of lol:rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Wow. Lots of Lommy vs. Nog at the moment. I'm inclined to believe Nog, but Lommy's latest post has a very frustrated-ordo feel about it... however I was positive that one of Mac and Lommy was a wolf, and Mac's now dead.

I need to look at them closer.

[Boromir88]

Wow. Lots of Lommy vs. Nog at the moment. I'm inclined to believe Nog, but Lommy's latest post has a very frustrated-ordo feel about it... however I was positive that one of Mac and Lommy was a wolf, and Mac's now dead.

I need to look at them closer.

I seriously can't see any of them as wolves at this point. They're both sticking their neck out mighty far in attacking the other.

Interesting that Lommy brings up a fact that Mac, Nog, nor I had been killed yet. Then Mac is killed who out the 3 of us, appeared to be accepted as the most innocent one.

It is silly how Lommy said she expected it to be her or Mac. But Lommy a wolf? That's not the feel I'm getting, how would wolf-Lommy benefit? I mean no one is going to unquestionably think..."Lommy is innocent, because she thought she was going to get killed." Saying that would only cause her trouble. Silly as it was, I think Lommy said it because I said yesterday how 2 of the 3 people who voted Mnemo twice were dead, all that's left was Lommy. Must have gone to her head. :rolleyes: By pointing that out, I was hoping if she was innocent to anticipate the wolves next move and not have them kill Lommy, and also to try and get more time to look at her.

The wolves had a rocky start, but today (and the next) are going to be the most crucial, these are the swing days. Our situation isn't dire, as in "we have to get a wolf lynched now," but it is crucial. We either get it right and go into the night with 8 innocents (including the 2 gifteds) + 1 wolf. Or it's 7 - 2, with a good probability of it being 6-2 the next day. This is a crucial day for the wolves, but not desperate. I guess what I'm saying is, in this situation waiting in the shadows to enjoy all the sideshows taking place, getting the numbers evened out, getting better odds looks more likely than wolves sticking their necks out so forcefully just to get 1 person lynched.

As much as I want to go afterNog for his hypocritical reasons of suspecting me, I think he should only get a swat on the head for it. And to answer your question of the "consequences" I was referring to, I wasn't back-pedalling away from my wilwa-crusade. I was wrong, if you think I should be lynched for it, than do it. There will still be 2 wolves, but I won't be the worst loss.

This growing Lommy suspicion just looks too easy. Yes, Nog, I advocated for the simple and straight-forward, but that was in a situation when the day was closing and as much as people don't like bandwagoning, late counter-bandwagons turn out to be just as (if not more) of a disaster. So, yes late yesterday, I wanted to stay on-course so to say.

Today is a new day, new situation, new info to combine with the old, so don't be surprised if I don't go the "simple" road today and just lynch Lommy, because I don't like the looks of it. There is too big of a crowd that has been staying out of all these 1 on 1 battles we keep finding ourselves into.

(P.S. Lommy, if I stick my neck out for you and you turn out to be a wolf, you will be dead to me for a week).

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Morsul the Dark]

Alright Finished Cleaning the Bathroom and the closet is about 80% done... The Kitchen 100%... Living Room and Bedroom Tomorrow I've earned a Break!

Ok Anywho just felt like relating my progress on Apartment cleaning because... I dunno:

Nerwen Flies under my radar and I'm sorry to admit I find her femininely Charming and therefore less suspect."

Nerwen 16 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617255&postcount=16)
In Character as well as pointing out revealing again unlikely... Made less likely with less gifteds...

Nerwen 34 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617280&postcount=34) Questions Boro

Nerwen 56 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617313&postcount=56) Questions Boro More Strongly...

67 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617333&postcount=67) Explains to Mac her questions of Boro

72 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617340&postcount=72) Defends Roa from Nogrod about "Intentional slip"

76 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617345&postcount=76) Explains sometimes innocents Don't pay close attention... True yet hmmm....

87 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617357&postcount=87) Defends Roa again against Boro again, also explains self on "Strange Comments"

89 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617359&postcount=89) Mmmmm.... Molehills

141-here reading

181-votes Mac for dodgy reasoning

216 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617593&postcount=216) again debating with boro about Wolf reveal tactics...

238 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617627&postcount=238) Thinks Nogrod Might be innocent explains Nogrod's not native English speaker... (On that Note he grasps it better than some Native speakers I know;))

246- Questions Lottie's vote for Lommy

253 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617644&postcount=253) Questions/Annoyed by Mnem... Explains Shasta's questioning of Brinn and tells me Shasta is a he...;)

266 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617658&postcount=266) another post debating with Boro...

268 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=617660&postcount=268) points out eomer and Boro both suspected Roa...

277-builds case against Mnem

293-Mnem not acting like herself acting like sally..... Mnem and sally acting alike mnem wolf=sallywolf? I still have my reasons from yesterday...

295- explains why people avoid speaking of Gifteds... say she'll vote early

301-votes Mnem

476-talks about her findings of Mnem analysis...

492- plans to vote soon- admits reasoning will be shaky (See Sally she posts once saying busy not 12 times saying busy :p)

503-not sure of Lottie

504- Votes Nienna for "not rightness"?

664 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618324&postcount=664) Don't ignore Lottie...

almost 2:30Am... Tired... ALMOST DONE! Will continue

745- Here Reading

765 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618560&postcount=765) sally shasta lommy nogrod all suspects... thinks maybe we should trust lottie

787- Ice humor

800-anyone here... crickets... apparently not...

805 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618612&postcount=805) explains sally shasta crossing... lottie not untouchable... defend bes's newbyness, explains only seen one Morwolf (which yes I spent 3 days pretending to be a cobbler.)

815- discussing Lottie... Wonders validity of reveal explains to Sally not everyone believes lottie...

831 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618650&postcount=831) Voting Soon vote "evil voters"

832 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618652&postcount=832) Shasta Sally Wilwa and Lommy top four suspects... nogrod lesser degree

839- votes Sally

841- good Luck

908- here reading


Conclusion- Looks good suspects wolves and votes well in my opinion.
909-me
tired going to sleep!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.

Edit: X'ed with Morsul.

[Nerwen]

Okay... I had to go and do some stuff.

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.

The way Boro is springing to Lommy's defence now makes me wonder if it's Boro + Lommy. Or is that too simple?

I'd sort of come to think quite well of Boro, mainly because he tried to quash the "let's all agree to kill Lottie" thing– if she's innocent, as seems likely, that's a free kill for the wolves. But then a Borowolf might think supporting her would pay off in the long run.

On the other hand, I can't say I trust Nogrod either... though his frustration at finding Mac dead looks fairly genuine...

[Nerwen]

I really need to go back and read through everything. I've just been so flat-out the last few Days that I've been lazy and relied more on other people's analyses, which isn't a good thing.

[Thinlómien]

Loslote you being a known innocent does not mean thta you don't need to reason your votes or use your brains. :rolleyes:

Okayaie, I'm less annoyed now, I'm not convinced Nogrod is a wolf but I won't be surprised at all if he turns out to be one. Here's a fair point by Nerwen:
though his frustration at finding Mac dead looks fairly genuine...I didn't think of that and I agree with this statement. However, I can imagine him starting that analysis while waiting his fellow to reply his PM and then be sort of convinced to kill Mac instead (and thus abandon the analysis) and just then gloat about his sort of frustration here. Or of course he could be bluffing, but that seems less characteristic.

You thought you would be killed last Night? Really? After being fairly suspected yesterDay and wilwa turning out innocent? I'm not buying it. You can call me silly, sure, but I did think of that as an option. I thought Mac's death as more probable, though, since he was suspected less by far. Besides the wolves have killed suspicious-looking previous Day's lynch-candidates before in this game (like Inzil).

And knowing her role would tell us so much. Gah, I just have to be right about this! *is attempting to channel Shasta's psychic abilities*And what exactly would that tell you? If I was a wolf, my death could make you or Nogrod look better, but as I'm not, it won't really tell you anything. Just consider, what will you benefit if you lynch me and find out I'm innocent? Will that make you suspect yourself? Or Nogrod? Or do something else? And sorry darling, you are not right about this. If you lynch me, I will make sure my last words are "what did I tell you?"

You can lynch me if you want to. However, I don't think that's smart. That's one more innocent lynch, and although we can still afford that, it would be stupid. Especially as I really think you will get nothing out of my death (except maybe suspicion for Brinn, but that would serve her right :p). And I'd like to echo what Boro said about this being a sort of crucial Day, so I'd prefer lynching a wolf toDay.

It's one of the many reasons I find Lommy suspicious; the way she casually said she could go for a Brinn lynch, but wasn't trying to push for it too much. Reminds me of something I've done as a wolf in previous games.And why would I have done that as a wolf? My own life was in danger, I had expressed a lot of suspicion of Wilwa and she would've been the easy lynch. If I was a wolf, why not just go for Wilwa and not start meddling with some tricky last minute bandwagon when I myself had the shared place of most votes already? It just doesn't make any sense!

Silly as it was, I think Lommy said it because I said yesterday how 2 of the 3 people who voted Mnemo twice were dead, all that's left was Lommy. Must have gone to her head.No, it wasn't because of that. Didn't I say yesterDay myself that after you brought the whole thing up, it's unlikely [I'm going to die next? The only reason why I thought I could be killed is Mac's rather puzzlingly strong defense of me, which made at least me and Sally raise eyebrows, so why not the wolves? And when I said I expected to be killed, I'm not saying I was pondering who would get killed for the whole Night and conclude it's Mac or me. No. Merely when I was waiting for my private modly news service to send me an sms about the death since I wasn't around myself at DL, I started thinking who could've died and it just occured to me it could be Mac or me, more probably him. So I was not surprised when I got the message announcing Mac's death.

This growing Lommy suspicion just looks too easy.Agreed. I don't really get why I am so suspicious. If it's because of Wilwa, well, I'm not the only one who suspected her and there was even the possibility I wouldn't have voted her. And if advocating a lynch for innocent (Wilwa) makes me guilty, more or less everybody is guilty based on yesterDay, because I'm innocent too. And if it's because I said I thought I could've been killed - well as a wolf it probably wouldn't have occured to me that I could be killed, hint hint. No, as a wolf I wouldn't be ruthless enough to fabricate some "Mac and I might look gifted together" theory, then kill Mac as thanks for being more or less the only one who thinks me innocent and claim it proves my innocence. That would be quite gross. And speaking of this, if I was a wolf, why on earth would I have killed Mac? He was one of the few who really believed in my innocence. Why would I kill him then when there's considerable amounts of suspicion against me? Again, it doesn't make any sense.

(P.S. Lommy, if I stick my neck out for you and you turn out to be a wolf, you will be dead to me for a week).Now I feel like PMing Legate and asking him to change my role so that I'd see you sulking. :p Well seriously no, but you can be sure that you will be dead for me for a week, if you only gallantly step to my aid only because you're a wolf who thinks he will have a mighty good "I told you so" Day after I'm dead...

The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though.YesterDay, I started with presenting the Nogrod-Sally theory, and toDay, Nogrod started by bashing my first post.

PS. for Nogrod - you diss me for suggesting you are a wolf because there would be so much wolf-on-wolf, yet you suspect me of all people. That's quite contradictory. If you claim wolves would shy away from massive amounts of wolf-on-wolvery, why are you jumping on a person who tried to get Mnemo lynched for two Days in a row and who voted second asnd third, both times at the sort of "get the bandwagon rolling" point?

PPS. I checked the vote count for Day2.
Lottie --> Lommy
Trom --> Boro
Mnemo --> Pitchwife
Nerwen --> Mnemo
Brinn --> Lottie
Boro --> Zil
Shasta --> Nerwen
Lommy --> Mnemo (2)
Morsul --> Lottie (2)
Wilwa --> Boro (2)
Greenie --> Mnemo (3)
Mac --> Mnemo (4)
Pitchwife --> Mnemo (5)
Zil --> Lottie (3)
Sally --> Lottie (4)
Nienna --> Lommy (2)
Nog --> Mnemo (6)
Eomer --> Mnemo (7)
Your vote wasn't decisive, it was maybe confirming, but not decisive. Mnemo would have died without your vote, especially as, if I recall correctly, Eomer who was left to vote after you had suspected Mnemo quite a lot.

[Brinniel]

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back.
I agree with the whole fighting back part. Lommy feels like a cornered wolf to me and I swear I remember seeing her act this way before as a threatened wolf. Which is probably why I'm so convinced she is one this time.

If I'm somehow wrong about Lommy, I don't think that necessarily means Nogrod is guilty. At this stage, I don't really see why a wolfish Nogrod who has been under not much scrutiny himself would want to build this huge case against an innocent who could probably still get lynched without it.

The way Boro is springing to Lommy's defence now makes me wonder if it's Boro + Lommy. Or is that too simple?

I'd sort of come to think quite well of Boro, mainly because he tried to quash the "let's all agree to kill Lottie" thing– if she's innocent, as seems likely, that's a free kill for the wolves. But then a Borowolf might think supporting her would pay off in the long run.

I'm not sure a Borowolf would be so obvious in defending her if they were packmates. There's a good chance Lommy could be lynched toDay, and if they were wolves together, I'd imagine the smarter thing to do would be to go wolf on wolf. And I know Boro doesn't mind throwing fellow wolves under the bus, so why would he defend his mate if it'll only make him look worse?

And what exactly would that tell you? If I was a wolf, my death could make you or Nogrod look better, but as I'm not, it won't really tell you anything. Just consider, what will you benefit if you lynch me and find out I'm innocent? Will that make you suspect yourself? Or Nogrod? Or do something else? And sorry darling, you are not right about this. If you lynch me, I will make sure my last words are "what did I tell you?"
I did say I have doubts that you and Sally are wolves together, so knowing your role could raise or lower my suspicions of her. That's only one example.

I don't really get why I am so suspicious. If it's because of Wilwa, well, I'm not the only one who suspected her and there was even the possibility I wouldn't have voted her.
Nah. Your vote for wilwa only added fuel to an already burning fire. I've been suspecting you since the end of Day 3.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy feels like a cornered wolf to me and I swear I remember seeing her act this way before as a threatened wolf. Which is probably why I'm so convinced she is one this time.Aye, I've acted quite similarily as a cornered wolf. Only then it's more like a martyr show and less rational (because I know I sort of deserve the suspicion even if the accusations are stupid) than now. But I've acted similarily as a cornered ordo, or even as a cornered ranger. So I wouldn't make any conclusions if I was you (especially as you're making the wrong conclusions. If you end up lynching me, my slight comfort will be that at least Brinn gets to be proven wrong. :p)

I did say I have doubts that you and Sally are wolves together, so knowing your role could raise or lower my suspicions of her. That's only one example.Then let's lynch Sally. That would give me an idea of Nogrod's role and you an idea of my role.

I've been suspecting you since the end of Day 3.Yes, without any reason I can see as sensible and without caring about the fact that if I was a wolf, I would either be a very ruthless and cold-hearted one or a very stupid one (pursuing a fellow since Day1, killing Mac last Night, for example). Please, think outside the box for a while. Consider what I have said in my defense and whether it could be true. Just, for a while, let go of your suspicion and try to see it from my point of view. If you still suspect me as strongly, well then I think that there is no understanding between us because I can't see how can you still suspect me and you can't see where I'm coming from and you may try to get me lynched with better conscience. Just if you are an innocent, you should reconsider and not latch yourself to a mindless attack. It's braver to reconsider your old suspicions than to stick them to then end if they don't make any sense.

PS. Totally unrelatedly, Brinn, I like your sig. :D

[Boromir88]

Maybe I'm brainless, but it's very hard for me to believe that neither Nogrod nor Lommy is a wolf at this point. The wolves can't afford to lose another of their own, not with so many innocents still around. The vibe I'm currently getting is that an innocent spotted a wolf, and the wolf is fighting back. I'm too tired to remember who started the fracas, though. Maybe I'll be more coherent tomorrow.


That was my point, right now they need days, they need to even out the numbers. If one of them was a wolf, wouldn't you expect a little more calmness instead of immediate retaliation towards the other? They need days, and if one of them is a wolf, than either Nog or Lommy are really placing the last wolf in a terrible situation.

I don't like the how the attention has been narrowed down to 2 people, when there are 6-7 others chilling around. When I get back from class I'll look at those others.

[Morsul the Dark]

That was my point, right now they need days, they need to even out the numbers. If one of them was a wolf, wouldn't you expect a little more calmness instead of immediate retaliation towards the other? They need days, and if one of them is a wolf, than either Nog or Lommy are really placing the last wolf in a terrible situation.

I don't like the how the attention has been narrowed down to 2 people, when there are 6-7 others chilling around. When I get back from class I'll look at those others.

Nerwen... maybe because she defended me my first game seems so low on my suspect meter and yet deep withing a nagging doubt...

Boro still waiting to see why I look bad:D

Shasta not off the radar yet but slipping away...

Sally still my top suspect...

Living room and Bedroom and Laundry I refuse to be distracted by WereWolf! My participation will be my own reward once I'm done cleaning...

[satansaloser2005]

Caught up (sorry I took so long but I had to catch up on all my internet stuff) and needless to say I'll be sticking with what I said yesterDay. Wilwa, alas, was an innocent, which makes me very uneasy with Lommie. (And now after Mac's dead I need to have a really good look at Nog too.)

Warning in advance. If I can only drop in and vote without looking things over further I'll be voting for Lommie (or possibly Brinn, but Lommie's my first choice). I want to save my vote because it's really early but if I can't get back in and a wolf escapes because I couldn't vote I'll be really upset. Blah. :(

Village, it's up to you now. I don't think I'll be around much for a couple Days so be sure to make good choices and look things over carefully. Best of luck and I'll see you when I can.

[Nogrod]

Reading through the thread I was quite amazed of the fast and easy "Lommy-wagon" - even if people suspecting her had suspected her earlier as well. But it looked really bad.

Which brought me to this:Loslote you being a known innocent does not mean thta you don't need to reason your votes or use your brains. :rolleyes:
Now let's pause for a moment.


Lottie called her role as the "Birthday dreamer"

Now please veterans help me out (Lommy & Boro I think have played long enough) or those who have read the really old games...

But wasn't a "birthday dreamer" a person who got to dream of someone on a certain pre-given Night (like Night 3 or 4) - and then got the role of the one s/he dreamt?!!!

That is the birthday -part of it: as a present that person may take the new role (I don't remember whether it was compulsory to take that role or whether there was a choice involved).

Enedwaith...

Feel free to suspect me that I'm trying to out our only "known innocent", but I'm pretty serious. It is a real concern to me at least now that I remembered the nature of that role, as it had been. Not only because it would mean we have actually three wolves left and not just two, but also that one of them might lie down in front of us trusted by everyone.

If I was a wolf and the stuff I say was just my trick on you, please consider would I then try to voice this concern this openly? I know some of you jump on me saying: he's trying to speak against Lottie once more and she must be innocent. But I have felt the whole Lottie-thing being odd all the time. Was it Wilwa who said that what an anticlimax to have a once dreaming seer as the secret role... I agree. And looking at what she does doesn't make me think of her any more innocentish.

A birthday dreamer - old-school way - would be a neutralish role in the beginning as that person could dream of anyone; gifted or wolf or ordo...

Why did they sacrifice Pitchie then? A good question... Maybe there was a ruling that if she found a wolf he should be revealed as not to make the game too uneven (already four wolves in the beginning and then this to put people off the track even more)?

I'm not sure about this... well how could I be? But consider, especially you who are familiar with the "Birthday dreamer".

Okay, now to make myself a dinner... just had to vent this out.

[Nerwen]

Lottie called her role as the "Birthday dreamer"

Now please veterans help me out (Lommy & Boro I think have played long enough) or those who have read the really old games...

But wasn't a "birthday dreamer" a person who got to dream of someone on a certain pre-given Night (like Night 3 or 4) - and then got the role of the one s/he dreamt?!!!

:eek:

I have no idea whether what Nog's saying here is right– this was all before my time– but that would change everything.

Anyone know?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

See, I almost buy that theory... until the part about there being a rule about having to out the dreamt wolf. That part seems farfetched to me.

[Boromir88]

Nerwen
Boro still waiting to see why I look bad:D

Hold your horses, I'm busy just like you. :p If you want a quick summary.

Basically, I don't like how the focus has been narrowed down to 2 people today. That is handing the wolves a situation they can control. I wanted to start putting pressure on the people I haven't been spending a great deal of time on, plus those who have been easing by, not getting involved in all these battles that keep happening every day. So, those who have been playing a clean, safe game so far. I include you in here (along with Bes and Brinn...and to a lesser extent sally).

As far as specific things against you. Your votes so far are questionable. Your Day 1 looked reasonable enough, but Mnemo said in #108 that a vote for you would be "too easy" especially considering your vote for Mac. And in #120 Pitch said that your vote looked based on a hunch and that it was understandable. That's 2 wolves defending a vote that I don't see was all that bad. The early first votes are usually the safest (but of course do to any time constraints it is understandable), but no one really finds early Day 1 votes suspicious. So, I wonder what 2-wolves are doing defending you for it?

Plus your vote for yourself. You didn't want to be mod-fired, that's good and it doesn't point to either innocence or wolvery. But the fact that it was for yourself, it looks not only safe, but a move to make people think you're innocent since you did vote for yourself. Now, I'm not familiar with you as a wolf yet, but from the reputation it sounds like you are a tough one to follow. And that vote explains it...you vote because you do not want to be mod-fired, thus you did not want "die." Yet you vote for yourself which suggests you do? The vote itself is safe, and typically when innocents vote for themself it's out of frustration...but your self-vote wasn't out of frustration which makes it look like you were doing it to look innocent, and that gets me suspicioius.


Lottie called her role as the "Birthday dreamer"

Now please veterans help me out (Lommy & Boro I think have played long enough) or those who have read the really old games...

But wasn't a "birthday dreamer" a person who got to dream of someone on a certain pre-given Night (like Night 3 or 4) - and then got the role of the one s/he dreamt?!!!

That is the birthday -part of it: as a present that person may take the new role (I don't remember whether it was compulsory to take that role or whether there was a choice involved).


Wow, Nog, you have just convinced me to reconsider everything I've concluded about Lottie. On top of that, I really would not want to see either you or Lommy lynched today (possibly for good too).

I'm not familiar with the "birthday-dreamer" but what you are describing sounds like the Mythomaniac, who chose a person and then could assume their role.

And I don't suspect you for pointing this out, it's something I didn't think about. My reasons for adamantly defending Lottie were, because every part of her reveal matched up. Also, yesterday, if she did only get one dream then the wolves may deem other people larger threats, and risk keeping a known innocent around. That is why I was trying to push that we accept her story, however I also wanted to challenge her to be a real pain-in-the-@** to the wolves, and either try to make them kill her or regret they didn't. Her behavior today and yesterday is a lot different than the days she revealed and then gave us Pitch.

Now they did sacrifice a wolf, but think of the benefit for pulling off a stunt like that if you and wilwa are correct about the secret-role. What do we then make of Bes? Because now the whole Lottie saying "I only dreamed of Pitch, because he said I should dream of Bes" looks too fabricated and clean.

[Bes]

The role Nog is describing does seem very awkward, yes. The point where it all falls apart for me is pretty basic: If that were the role, why would she ever reveal that she was a Birthday Dreamer when she could as easily claim to be a regular old Seer, and just hadn't found a wolf yet? She and most everyone else were already pretty confident about Pitch by that point, it would more or less be a done deal.

I understand that she'd have become suspicious after that and around Day 7 or 8 it would be hard for her to claim that she hadn't found a new wolf yet, but it would be better than telling us she was a Birthday Dreamer, which would imply to us that if she was right, she would be a new wolf herself. I think the role works just like she told us it does. Well, barring some wicked reverse psychology and assuming that no one could look up the role.

Edit: Crossed with Boro

[Boromir88]

See, I almost buy that theory... until the part about there being a rule about having to out the dreamt wolf. That part seems farfetched to me.

It's not having to dream a wolf. The "mythomaniac" role could pick one person (at a certain point) and assume that role for the rest of the game. So, if he/she picks and ordo, she's an ordo.

I'm just familiar with it, because I remember being a wolf, and getting super happy and confident that we killed the seer early (I think Day 2 or 3). But there was also the mythomaniac role, who had picked the seer, assuming seer duties and I was ousted as a wolf.

[Boromir88]

The role Nog is describing does seem very awkward, yes. The point where it all falls apart for me is pretty basic: If that were the role, why would she ever reveal that she was a Birthday Dreamer when she could as easily claim to be a regular old Seer, and just hadn't found a wolf yet? She and most everyone else were already pretty confident about Pitch by that point, it would more or less be a done deal.

I understand that she'd have become suspicious after that and around Day 7 or 8 it would be hard for her to claim that she hadn't found a new wolf yet, but it would be better than telling us she was a Birthday Dreamer, which would imply to us that if she was right, she would be a new wolf herself. I think the role works just like she told us it does. Well, barring some wicked reverse psychology and assuming that no one could look up the role.


Now there's a sudden change of tune about Lottie!

[Boromir88]

Now there's a sudden change of tune about Lottie!

Before I jump the gun, I guess it would be wise to realize I've also just had a sudden change of tune about Lottie too and to think about Nog's concerns more. But Bes goes from voting for her, and trying to discredit her, to defending.

[Bes]

Now there's a sudden change of tune about Lottie!

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618336&postcount=671

Not that sudden. Pitch was a wolf, which implies that I was wrong about Lottie. Suspecting her at this point doesn't seem to make much sense. Anyway, if "Birthday Dreamer" isn't a real role and could mean anything, then yes my argument does fall apart. I'm going to run off and see if I can find a guide on roles, now, because this is getting ridiculous.

Edit: Crossed with Boro again.

[Nerwen]

I'll say what I was going to before this "Evil!Birthday dreamer" theory came up.

That was my point, right now they need days, they need to even out the numbers. If one of them was a wolf, wouldn't you expect a little more calmness instead of immediate retaliation towards the other? They need days, and if one of them is a wolf, than either Nog or Lommy are really placing the last wolf in a terrible situation.

I don't like the how the attention has been narrowed down to 2 people, when there are 6-7 others chilling around. When I get back from class I'll look at those others.

Boro's making a lot of sense here, and the way nearly everyone seems to be for lynching Lommy is starting to worry me. Although, if she's a wolf, there's only one other, so it's not like there'd be a large rescue party... But still, Sally is one of those jumping on her, and I still don't trust her– her last post felt quite evil. (EDIT: Not to mention Lottie, who voted her, being possibly evil after all). And it's worrying me too, the way people who were suspected earlier have managed to disappear out of view again, and the way Morsul and Bes just seem to slip by from Day to Day in their own little bubbles, with nobody taking much notice of them (although I think Morsul's shameless flattery of me should get him a pass for toDay ;)).

But the thing is, this is all a glaring contrast to the way Boro acted yesterDay. Boro, I know you said this:

This growing Lommy suspicion just looks too easy. Yes, Nog, I advocated for the simple and straight-forward, but that was in a situation when the day was closing and as much as people don't like bandwagoning, late counter-bandwagons turn out to be just as (if not more) of a disaster. So, yes late yesterday, I wanted to stay on-course so to say.

But in fact you were all for slicing off Wilwa's head with Occam's razor hours before the DL. You really pushed to lynch her.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.
EDIT2:Word left out; added comment.

[Bes]

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=514900&postcount=29

Well I'll be damned.

Edit: I realize that it's Nog both there and here, but it's not like he's making it up just now for our benefit. It's been said before.
Edit2: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618046&postcount=465
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=618299&postcount=643

So, where does that put us now?

[Brinniel]

Then let's lynch Sally. That would give me an idea of Nogrod's role and you an idea of my role.
But if it's between two people, I'd rather vote for the one I find more suspicious, which is you.

Yes, without any reason I can see as sensible and without caring about the fact that if I was a wolf, I would either be a very ruthless and cold-hearted one or a very stupid one (pursuing a fellow since Day1, killing Mac last Night, for example). Please, think outside the box for a while. Consider what I have said in my defense and whether it could be true. Just, for a while, let go of your suspicion and try to see it from my point of view. If you still suspect me as strongly, well then I think that there is no understanding between us because I can't see how can you still suspect me and you can't see where I'm coming from and you may try to get me lynched with better conscience. Just if you are an innocent, you should reconsider and not latch yourself to a mindless attack. It's braver to reconsider your old suspicions than to stick them to then end if they don't make any sense.
I admit it's possible my suspicion of you has blinded me from your defenses as I cannot see it coming from anything but an evil perspective. And I know it's annoying for someone to be stuck on one person (especially if you're the victim), but I'm not just going to let go because of the possibility I could be wrong. You've been this way before too. In the last game I modded, you insisted Mac was a wolf and wouldn't let go of it until he was lynched...and in the end, you were right. So while you still hate it, surely you can see where I'm coming from. If I'm wrong and you are innocent, then I apologise, though I won't feel too terrible since I didn't suspect you without good reason.

Nogrod makes an interesting point about Lottie's role, though I wouldn't be too quick to jump on her just because of what the role might've involved in the past. For one thing, the birthday dreamer role hasn't been used for a long time, before Legate's time too I think. His version of birthday dreamer could possibly be different than what it originally was. I just don't understand why she would reveal if this was so; maybe she didn't know the role already existed? I don't have time to figure this out, so I'll think about it more toMorrow when I actually have time.

I have class now, so I must vote now since I won't be back. No surprises here:

++Lommy

[Nogrod]

The role Nog is describing does seem very awkward, yes. The point where it all falls apart for me is pretty basic: If that were the role, why would she ever reveal that she was a Birthday Dreamer when she could as easily claim to be a regular old Seer, and just hadn't found a wolf yet? She and most everyone else were already pretty confident about Pitch by that point, it would more or less be a done deal.First of all claiming to be a regular seer would have been really dangerous as people would have wanted some names, basically on Day-to-Day basis. Of course a wolf could give you an innocent - even a mate as an innocent - every Day (and claim that every single person she had dreamt thus far had been killed or lynched already - which would be a bit eyebrow-raising as itself), but looking at the end-game there might have been some serious problems for the wolves, especially if the ranger got a hold of the game and started succesfully denying the wolves.

Secondly I think it would be highly unlikely a "secret role" would have been a normal seer role. That would have been even more an anticlimax than just a "one Night's seer" (which I honestly find an improbable and odd role).

Thirdly it might very well be that when she had to come up with this "one Night seer" -role to hide her real role she wished to give it a name - and named it with the name Legate had given her, her not knowing the ancestry of the role named thus (and Legate might be a person who studied history when using names on roles - the sad thing being I only remember it was thus... I'll try to find it but it might be quite laborious to find; so anyone who remembers the Birthday dreamer role accurately, please come forwards!).

Okay, I admit we're again walking the thin line between meta-reasons and in-game reasons, but as she actually said herself in this thread: If it helps, Legate called the role the ,,birthday dreamer'' (with the funny commas and everything) and I was forbidden to reveal on Day 1.I don't feel too bad pointing at it...


EDIT: X'd with Bes & Brinn (good to see you trying to find the thing Bes... didn't you find anythnig more on it? - Okay I'll give it a try as well)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Plus the fact that the game started... on Legate's birthday. :rolleyes:

In any case, I'm just back from a final and am reading. Right now I'm still thinking that one of Nog and Lommy is a wolf, and that Boro and Bes have done complete 180s on Lottie which strikes me as odd.

Where I stand - I would be willing to lynch Lommy, Nog, and to a lesser extent Sally today.

A note - Nerwen is far below my radar this game. If there's anyone not playing like they usually do, it's my queen. :Merisu:

Edit: X'ed with Nog. Remember where absolutes get you, Nog? (Hint: Roa wasn't a wolf.)

[Nogrod]

Plus the fact that the game started... on Legate's birthday. :rolleyes:That was a good one. I mean really it might make sense...

Edit: X'ed with Nog. Remember where absolutes get you, Nog? (Hint: Roa wasn't a wolf.)
Where do you find "absolutes" in my last post? :rolleyes:

[Bes]

Shasta: Still spinning on Lottie, if it matters at all. I'd like to get the analysis of someone more experienced on what I've found so far before I go making any more decisions...

[Boromir88]

But in fact you were all for slicing off Wilwa's head with Occam's razor hours before the DL. You really pushed to lynch her.


Yes, I was willing to bet the house she was a wolf. I got it wrong, I'll send her a christmas card or something to make up for it. :rolleyes: When you realize you were wrong about your top suspect, and you put a lot of effort towards that one suspect, you realize that you have no idea about anyone still living besides a few vague feelings. My certainess about believing I was on the "right trail" took a big hit.

And I still just did not like the way today was shaping up with the direction being driven on Nog and Lommy. Yesterday, and the day before, there was still a lot of things going on, and action, besides my hard-headed crusade against wilwa.


For one thing, the birthday dreamer role hasn't been used for a long time, before Legate's time too I think. His version of birthday dreamer could possibly be different than what it originally was.


Possibly, but I don't agree with the reasoning that the role was used before Legate's entrance into WW. He's a heavy reader of past and present games (of course when he's got the time for it). He could easily know about the role, doesn't mean it's not altered, or that Nog is even correct, but it is worthy of more thought than a quick dismissal. ;) Especially since, I think Lottie has changed her behavior from her revealed days as a believed seer, to her last 2 days as an assumed innocent.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I found at least this from Valier's WWJ Attack of the Werecats:The ppuuuurrfect village (06)

The Birthday Dreamer:The fifth night will be one Ordinary villagers birthday. They will receive a pm from me during the Day letting them know it's their birthday. That night they will dream about a villager of their choice. If they choose a Gifted, they will become that gifted as well, for the rest of the game. If they choose a Werecat they will become one themselves and join the pack. If they choose an Ordo the game will continue as normal.

[Nerwen]

In any case, I'm just back from a final and am reading. Right now I'm still thinking that one of Nog and Lommy is a wolf, and that Boro and Bes have done complete 180s on Lottie which strikes me as odd.

Indeed... and the thing is, Bes' response to the situation is looking to me not unlike a panicking wolf-cub.

A note - Nerwen is far below my radar this game. If there's anyone not playing like they usually do, it's my queen. :Merisu:

Pearl of my heart, your queen has been occupied with other matters this week. For example... (http://www.vimeo.com/8022675) (Note: this links to my reel, which may take up valuable ww'ing time to load. I'm just saying, these things take some time to put together and upload.)

EDIT:X'd with Boro and Nog.
EDIT2:Explanation.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Where do you find "absolutes" in my last post? :rolleyes:



Thirdly it might very well be that when she had to come up with this "one Night seer" -role to hide her real role she wished to give it a name

See? You're not even considering it a theory, anymore - you're assuming that it's fact. Just trying to prevent you from getting egg on your face (again). :)

Edit: X'ed with she who puts the moon's quiet beauty to shame.

[Nogrod]

They will receive a pm from me during the Day letting them know it's their birthday. That night they will dream about a villager of their choice.N.B. Why Lottie was so keen in revealing the Day before her "dream" was possible? Because she got to know it that Day and she had a chance of a lifetime to get this extraordinary-role executed for her the Night to come - unless she was lynched (which was possible I think?)! So she went and revealed to be a seer knowing full well she had the secret role so there would be no real seer to contest her revealment and to make herself live to do it (as the ranger would protect her from the Night kill with such a revealment)!

EDIT: Added bolding...

[Nogrod]

Thirdly it might very well be that when she had to come up with this "one Night seer" -role to hide her real role she wished to give it a nameSee? You're not even considering it a theory, anymore - you're assuming that it's fact."It might (very well) be" = absolute judgement? :rolleyes: :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

"It might (very well) be" = absolute judgement? :rolleyes: :p

No, Nog, the part where you say "to hide her real role". We're getting into a battle of semantics, though, so I'm going to drop it. *sigh*

[Boromir88]

Okay, I admit we're again walking the thin line between meta-reasons and in-game reasons, but as she actually said herself in this thread: I don't feel too bad pointing at it...


I don't think so, we're trying to figure out the specifics of a certain role. Obviously he's not going to come in and confirm whether you are right or not, but if he expects us to stand pat and not try to figure out what his secret-role was, than he should never have created a secret one. (No offense met Legate, I'm just against stiff meta-reasoning muzzles, it verges on reminding me of PC, which often causes the death of history and historical context :) ).

[Nogrod]

No, Nog, the part where you say "to hide her real role". We're getting into a battle of semantics, though, so I'm going to drop it. *sigh*If I start a sentence with "It might be that..." it does mark everything said thereafter in that sentence as a possible thing to my ear - and not absolute. Maybe English doesn't work like that? Finnish works like that.

I think it's wise to cut short with semantics though, not to say cut off with "battles" on this... :rolleyes:

[Morsul the Dark]

++Sally Same reasons as yesterday... Not a fan of this two person game at the moment... Guess I'll see how it pans out...

Cleaning update if anyone cares ;) Almost done 2-3 more hours oughta do it!

[Nogrod]

I seemingly have used quite a lot of time with this idea of a Birthday dreamer... but I think it is a thing we should actually think about, especially with what Boro says about Lottie acting differently after gaining her status... I'm going to check back on it to see if I get the same feeling from there. The thing that I noticed while searching for her wordings was, that on the Day she revealed Pitchie she immediately had a lengthy analysis on Lommy ready deeming her quilty, and I think she has sticked to it ever since.

On another thoughts I think Lommy's defence was fiery and personal enough to make her look better to me. Even if I think she overreacted and even if I know it's not once a wolf has wrestled herself out from lynching with getting personal... And sorry Lommy, I had totally forgotten your votes on Mnemo on the first two Days (as I said I was in a hurry just trying to see for something that would make sense to me what you were doing there in the end of the Day). Not that these things make me think you're pure as an angel they actually lessen my suspicions on you quite a lot. Not to speak of that band-waggon that just appeared from nowhere in minutes...

Also what Nerwen said about Bes being a possible panicky wolf-cub. I was actually confused as no one seemed to react to my suspicions on Bes yesterDay...
I would still say that the way Bes tried to reason us lynching Lottie before she had time to have a possibility to dream and come up with something we could consider looks wolvishIf my theory of the Birthday dreamer is right that might be a wolf-cub trying to get a "seer" lynched - and then she might have changed into an ally the coming Night, which would be quite ironic but not too far-fetched anyway... :)

[Nerwen]

If I start a sentence with "It might be that..." it does mark everything said thereafter in that sentence as a possible thing to my ear - and not absolute. Maybe English doesn't work like that? Finnish works like that.

The way you've phrased that sentence, "might be" seems to apply only to Lottie wishing to give the role a name.

Anyway, I have to go now. I'm definitely not ready to vote yet, so I'll have to risk not getting back before the DL.

[Thinlómien]

Replying and reading at the same time...

Nogrod, that is a scary theory, especially as it kind of makes sense! Because then Lottie could've revealed the Day before and just tell half of her role... and then she really would've had to give us a dream (and maybe she wasn't allowed to pm with her fellows yet?) so she saw no other option as telling the trust that she dreamt of Pitchie (also that was quite an ingenious way of earning out trust). If I may say without being jumped on, that really explains her single-minded and unreasoned voting against me Day after Day - very easy for a wolf, an innocent would maybe think more. Aiee... I'm tempted to buy this theory but I probably shouldn't, at least right away. Hmmm... I need to think more.

But if it's between two people, I'd rather vote for the one I find more suspicious, which is you.I understand, but I was merely offering a compromise, sort of.

You've been this way before too. In the last game I modded, you insisted Mac was a wolf and wouldn't let go of it until he was lynched...and in the end, you were right. So while you still hate it, surely you can see where I'm coming from. If I'm wrong and you are innocent, then I apologise, though I won't feel too terrible since I didn't suspect you without good reason.I know! But the difference is that Mac was guilty back then and I'm innocent now. ;) It might be presumptuous to say, but I wouldn't have been so sure if I had been right: I've never been as sure of anyone's guilt before or after that (that is, without universally acknowledged heavy evidence). I won't be wanting any apologies (it's just a game), except maybe for stating that there are good reasons to suspect me because I simply can't see any.

Plus the fact that the game started... on Legate's birthday.Was that a joke that I missed? Legate's birthday is in July.

Where I stand - I would be willing to lynch Lommy, Nog, and to a lesser extent Sally today.When did you start that too? *deep sigh*

I mean, this is really puzzling. I don't simply get where is all the suspicion against me coming from. I can't see anything wolvish I would've done, (nor why people don't see my points about why it's unlikely I'm a wolf). If you lynch me toDay, I advice to look at the suspicion bandwagon against me very carefully: I'm pretty sure you will find one if not two wolves there.

Anyway back to Lottie birthday dreamer issue - I think it would actually be quite likely Legate used the original role. And as for people changing behaviour towards Lottie after the Nigth she dreamt, that could mean nothing, because it could mean they didn't get to PM or even know her role yet then...

..am I really believeing in this guilty birthday dreamer thingy? Oh my. I'll be off for a while and think about it and other stuff, like for example who are our remaining wolves... (speaking of which Nogrod is playing quite a game with all this birthday dreamer stuff if he's a wolf...)

[Boromir88]

Also what Nerwen said about Bes being a possible panicky wolf-cub. I was actually confused as no one seemed to react to my suspicions on Bes yesterDay...

I was mostly operating under the assumption that I agreed with Shasta, that I wondered since Pitch and Mnemo were after eachother, I doubted if Pitch would throw out another wolf like that..."Here Lottie. Look at Bes." But if Legate's kept the basic premise of the Birthday Dreamer, turning into whatever role of the person she picks, than that changes how I feel about Bes. Particularly with now the defense of how you bringing this up doesn't make sense, when Bes was quick and adamant about rejecting Lottie's claim being a limitted-seer before.

I'm sure my switch looks suspicious too, but I've been presented with a view about a different role I hadn't even thought about (nor heard, but it sounded similar to the mytho-maniac). It just looks really suspicious that now you (Nog) proposed something that supported Bes' not believing Lottie's claim, that he's had a sudden switch.

In my opinion, whether you are right or not, today is our best shot to find out. If you are right (meaning we have 3 wolves and not 2) we don't absolutely need a wolf today, but this gives us 1 less day than I thought we previously had, making our situation more desperate.

If you are wrong, we still have 2 wolves, and that Lottie was telling the full truth about her role. Since it's been thoroughly discussed this is something we need to find out.

We know Lottie is not the Ranger or the Hunter. She is either a wolf due to the Birthday Dreamer role, or an innocent. It's worth the risk to find out for sure today, than to mis-lynch (or drag out) one of our gifteds. Then to also be stuck in the same decision the next day, because with all this talk about it, if Lottie is innocent I doubt she will end up killed by the wolves now.

[Boromir88]

We know Lottie is not the Ranger or the Hunter. She is either a wolf due to the Birthday Dreamer role, or an innocent. It's worth the risk to find out for sure today, than to mis-lynch (or drag out) one of our gifteds. Then to also be stuck in the same decision the next day, because with all this talk about it, if Lottie is innocent I doubt she will end up killed by the wolves now.

If clarification is needed...we're going to need to find out about Lottie today or tomorrow, the best case is to do it today.

I will be back before the DL, whatever is decided about Lottie. I will not vote to lynch Lommy. And before anyone tries to turn the tide on sally, I will not vote for her today either.

If Lottie is not a possibility. I will vote for Morsul, since he asked for my reasons to suspect him, but did not respond and left. Or for Bes, but most of my suspicious feelings about Bes revolve around Lottie.

[satansaloser2005]

Back for the rest of the Day. Can I get a vote count please? *pulls out cute!face* I'll go catch up and see what I can find. Back soon!

[Morsul the Dark]

BORO Oh I missed that paragraph...
Hmm... yes wolves did defend my vote... and it was for an innocent... as for the vote for myself... well it was either that or shoddy votes against some one else which would also look bad...

as Mac would say fair points I get it...

[satansaloser2005]

insert insanely long "analysis" of Nerwen here

I'd just like to take a moment to point out the flaw in not only Morsul's logic but....well, in general. (Which isn't to say you're not a nice person, dear, of course.) He'd gotten on me before for too often saying I couldn't be here. Notice how Nerwen does much the same (which I won't be covering at this time) and he just let her pass with it. Also, his anaylsis is just quoting her posts (and not even!) and summing them up for us. No opinion of his own, no nothing. Meta banter, telling us of real life, and then an analysis that is no sort of an analysis at all, which despite finding me guilty for doing something he has passed Nerwen over for. This=wolvery to me. Either that or just plain awful logic.

:eek:

I have no idea whether what Nog's saying here is right– this was all before my time– but that would change everything.

Anyone know?

So I hate that the Downs won't let you quote a quote within a quote (at least the easy way) but this is the part about Lottie's role. This has been discussed a lot toDay and I think it has a fair point. She could have taken on Pitch's role (more or less) after he died. However, I don't think this is likely as if that was the case the hunter (or at least a good hunter) would have come out by now to say "Hey, my list is still ordered to be the same length. Something ain't right, people!" Certainly this would have been my course of action and I believe any other hunter would do the same so I don't think that would be the case. However, to be fair, she could still be evil; perhaps after killing Pitch she became a cobbler? Bah, that doesn't make any sense. I'd care to leave Lottie alone for a bit longer; not too long necessarily, but there's just too many opinions on her and too much we don't know to lynch her at this point in my opinion.

Was that a joke that I missed? Legate's birthday is in July.Anyway back to Lottie birthday dreamer issue - I think it would actually be quite likely Legate used the original role. And as for people changing behaviour towards Lottie after the Nigth she dreamt, that could mean nothing, because it could mean they didn't get to PM or even know her role yet then...

..am I really believeing in this guilty birthday dreamer thingy? Oh my. I'll be off for a while and think about it and other stuff, like for example who are our remaining wolves... (speaking of which Nogrod is playing quite a game with all this birthday dreamer stuff if he's a wolf...)

See my commentary above. It could be possible Legate lifted the role yet left it up to Lottie to decide which side she was on (Mith had the same option in my game, where once she had completed her task she could decide her permanent alignment) or he could have made something completely different.


All in all I think this discussion of Lottie is beneficial yet also wasted; the only way to find out what she is or is not is to lynch her, and frankly I'd like to lynch a better candidate toDay since I don't have the time at this stage in the Day to look at everything regarding her in-depth. I'm not saying that I trust her completely nor that I think she is evil, but I'm torn enough on the subject of her honesty and allegiance that I don't think it's a good idea to kill her toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Also, I concur that Bes has looked exceedingly wolfish toDay and in general concerning Lottie. (Why, Lottie, you just may be the talk of the village for Days to come. How does that make you feel?:p)



Surprisingly I've not x'd with my last post but I suspect I will with this one so I'll get back to reading. Hopefully the silence means I'll get that vote count I asked Santa for. ;)

[Nogrod]

Porgy and Bess... erm... Lottie and Bes... part 1

Lottie says on Bes...

D2

Bes is new. I don't know his style yet, but he does seem a tad bit off. I'll look at him later, probably not toDay.

Really, I think only Nog, Lommy, and Bes look at all wolvish to me.

D3

Bes still looks suspicious to me. He is a newbie, so I'm not looking very hard at him yet, but I do think he could easily be a wolf.
...
Bes, Lommy, and Nog still look the worst to me.


Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

For a new suspect: How about Bes? The more I look at him, the more uneasy I get, but I don't have time to analyze him right now. I've only got fifteen minutes or so before I've got to go...

He hasn't come on again, but when you look at him, he never really says anything...might just be newbieness, might be wolfishness. As he's my top suspect


Votes Bes.

D4

"Reveals" Pitchwolf, gives a Lommyanalysis... ending with
All in all, I do think Lommy's probably another wolf, and I'm still suspicious of Bes, but I"m not going to analyze him again.

But here comes the change (Like immediately after)! (bolding mine)
À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.
This kind of makes me not suspect Bes as much. It looks like Pitchwolf was trying to hint that I should dream about Bes, when my dreaming Bes wouldn't really have offered much to work with, other than his own role. Hmm...anyway,


Later she mentions Bes only:
Might be playing up the newbie card, but what with Pitchie's 'suggestion' I'm more willing to believe that Bes really is just a newbie, not a wolf. Still, he's one to keep an eye on.

#538 (Pitch) - Retracts his earlier statement of Brinn's innocence, and tries to push Lottie to dream of Bes. To me, this points towards Bes's innocence.Okay, that's pretty much exactly what I said.

There was a mini-conflict yesterDay about Bes's idea that my reveal was trying to get rid of the Ranger, and no one understood what he meant. His post explains what he was thinking, at least.

I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.
This post does look very strange.Which it is...

But yesterDay or toDay... no mention of Bes at all...


So Lottie really is after Bes on D2 & 3, but after the crucial Night she backs away from him using Pitchie's odd suspicion (was it a suspicion after all?) as a ground for it. And now she has nothing to say of him?

So Bes being an original wolf and Lottie turning into one on N4 would fit perfectly.

[satansaloser2005]

Nog: Forgive the personal and completely stupid question (as I'm too lazy to check) but was your birthday at the same time as Lottie's dream Night? Or was it another date?

[Morsul the Dark]

Content my Dear Sally content... which for the record today at this point is far better... nerwen has some posts about being busy but the posts she has seem to have more input and opinion...

The only reason I voted you today is I'm not a fan of either of the top candidates and you are my next choice(For the record your wolfdom is going down today) Also I'd like to point out my analysis of Nerwen is a bit biased because she shares a few votes and ideas with me... Not exactly a good reason but...

[Nogrod]

Nog: Forgive the personal and completely stupid question (as I'm too lazy to check) but was your birthday at the same time as Lottie's dream Night? Or was it another date?I think it was the next day (December 5th - as mine was Dec 4th...). If you think that important to know.

[satansaloser2005]

Content my Dear Sally content... which for the record today at this point is far better... nerwen has some posts about being busy but the posts she has seem to have more input and opinion...

The only reason I voted you today is I'm not a fan of either of the top candidates and you are my next choice(For the record your wolfdom is going down today) Also I'd like to point out my analysis of Nerwen is a bit biased because she shares a few votes and ideas with me... Not exactly a good reason but...

Which for the record toDay I've not even been on because my internet's shot. And I'm glad you realize that agreeing with someone does not ensure their innocence. Quite the opposite in fact....


Blah. I'm trying to decide who to vote. Bes looks so bloody awful too. *is torn*

[satansaloser2005]

I think it was the next day (December 5th - as mine was Dec 4th...). If you think that important to know.

Not exactly, but given....erm, the point is that since there was a birthday dreamer I was trying to decide if the Night was specifically chosen and I couldn't remember if it was on your birthday or not. Being silly, really, but I thought it interesting.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally True You haven't posted much but what you have feels fuller to me than your earlier game posts...

[satansaloser2005]

Sally True You haven't posted much but what you have feels fuller to me than your earlier game posts...

Ah, you were speaking of me. Sorry, I thought you were implying that Nerwen had been more helpful toDay than I, which seemed a bit rude considering that I hadn't been around. *headdesks* Misunderstanding there, sorry. :)

[Morsul the Dark]

I reread the post and said to myself "That doesn't mak sense I mean Sally" That's why I reposted it more clearly :D

[satansaloser2005]

I reread the post and said to myself "That doesn't mak sense I mean Sally" That's why I reposted it more clearly :D

Works for me. I've been a bit tired anyway so it makes sense that I misread it. :)



Now onto wolf-catching, eh?

[Thinlómien]

Hey people I just realised that if Lottie's a wolf we actually have three wolves around... not a nice idea.

This might be crazy, but I actually feel like lynching Lottie to sure. Like somebody said, this is the Day to try it out, if there is one.

I could also go for Sally or Brinn, preferably the latter. Pardon my self-centered theories again, but if Lottie was a known-innocent pretending wolf, it would be easy and good-looking for Brinnwolf to side with her and it would be convenient for them to join forces against an innocent (me) to get her lynched.

But then again, I will vote anyone to save myself, as yesterDay... :rolleyes:

PS. Hey - pardon self-centered theories again :D - but considering how Lottie and Brinn joined forces to get me lynched and how Bes voted me on the last minute out of nowhere (combined with all the Lottie-Bes stuff Nogrod just presented), I wouldn't be surprised if our remaining wolves were Lottie+Bes+Brinn. Not sure what they'd achieve by getting me lynched, though, but I guess I'm just saying that with one "known innocent" and one newbie, they can quite effectively pull it off with co-operating openly....


edit: xed with several

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Interesting that Morsul is starting to backtrack on Sally... after voting her. :rolleyes:

"Let's lynch Sally, but if she's innocent, know that I actually didn't suspect her!"

I also find it extremely fascinating that Boro is willing to pull a complete 180, not only on Bes, but on Lottie as well, from saying she's a "known innocent" to "let's lynch her today", based solely on a (unproven) theory by Nog that may or may not be true.

Honestly, I think I'd rather lynch Boro today than Lommy, but that's probably not going to happen.

Edit: X'ed with Lommy.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And just as I'm ready to vote for Lommy, she brings up a point I'd forgotten about - Bes's vote yesterday. It flew in out of nowhere and I couldn't see why - but a Bes-Brinn-Lottie theory makes a certain kind of morbid sense... gah. It's 27 minutes to DL, much too late in the day to be throwing around things like this to make my head hurt. :(

[satansaloser2005]

And just as I'm ready to vote for Lommy, she brings up a point I'd forgotten about - Bes's vote yesterday. It flew in out of nowhere and I couldn't see why - but a Bes-Brinn-Lottie theory makes a certain kind of morbid sense... gah. It's 27 minutes to DL, much too late in the day to be throwing around things like this to make my head hurt. :(

Poor precious. I'll save you some aspirin, shall I?

[satansaloser2005]

It's too blankity-blank quiet around here. Let's kill some blankity-blank werewolves!:mad::mad::mad:

[Nogrod]

Bes then... (part 2)

He looks so confused the first Days that no newbie should be... I'm not sure if it's theatre or real confusion.

Suggests what if no one voted on D1, says he waits for a PM from the mod to clear rules to him, explains his vote on Mac, makes an analysis on Mac, decides not to vote (D2) as could not form an opinion...

Then reacts to Lottie's revealment of her role...
If she's telling the truth, then she's put herself in a perfect position to get night killed, and (if I understand how it works properly) be prevented from ever revealing her dream. Waiting until tomorrow to reveal and telling everyone what she dreamed would have easily prevented that, and I don't think the suspicion against her is sufficient at the moment for lynching to be a big concern for her. Which makes me think that this is a false reveal by a nervous wolf, following up an easy vote on someone that's been stumbling over his own feet through the game so far.Now this looks like genuinely confused...
I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.
I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.Like this...

Votes Lottie anyway.

Then comes the crucial Day4 (after N4 when Lottie dreamt / changed?).

He starts with more confusion about the roles (is he playing us for a fool or is he seriously that far off the rules one could read from anywhere?)
but I didn't realize that the Ranger doesn't actually die when they protect someone who gets attacked in the night
Wait. So a seer chooses who to dream about? Like, even if they're a real seer?
I'm having trouble coming up with anything like a decent counter to the arguments that favor voting Pitch today. As has been stated by others, if Pitch isn't a wolf, then Lottie will get lynched tomorrow and that's still a wolf down (probably). If Pitch is a wolf, apologies and thanks are in order, if only on my part, to Lottie. We lose Pitch, of course, and that's sad if he's innocent, but apparently how the game is played. Sorry Pitch.

D5 & 6

He suddenly seems to get the hang of it... mainly to defend himself (from basically nonexistant suspicions...

Gets really odd again with the "Birthday dreamer" stuff...


I'm getting crazy with him! :eek:

Soo confused and out of everything... and here and there clearly seeing what's going on (already in the earlier Days, not only on the last ones).

[Thinlómien]

So, who are you considering for vote, everybody?

I would prefer Lottie or Brinn, but I'm okay with Bes or Sally too.

Basically I'm ok with everything that's not me, but I wouldn't feel too happy about lynching Shasta or Boro, as they seem quite innocent to me.


edit: xed with two sallies and one nogroar

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nog and Lommy?

Bes, Brinn, and Lottie?

Lommy and Boro?

Sally and Morsul?

Ugh. :mad:

Edit: X'ed with Sally, Nogrod, and Lommy.

[Boromir88]

All in all I think this discussion of Lottie is beneficial yet also wasted; the only way to find out what she is or is not is to lynch her, and frankly I'd like to lynch a better candidate toDay since I don't have the time at this stage in the Day to look at everything regarding her in-depth. I'm not saying that I trust her completely nor that I think she is evil, but I'm torn enough on the subject of her honesty and allegiance that I don't think it's a good idea to kill her toDay.

I disagree, it's something that's worth the risk. If we're wrong, we lose an innocent, and not to sound heartless but that isn't as damaging as going for another candidate and risk lynching/dragging out one of the gifteds. If we're wrong about Lottie, we maintain our 2 gifteds and overall the situation is still pretty good.

Plus, since there has been lots of talk about it, if Lottie is an innocent the wolves aren't going to do us a favor in kill her. So, essentially you will be stuck with the same decision you're faced with today. Maybe it's only because I've had more time to brood over this than you, but I do not want to be in the same situation tomorrow, especially if we don't get a wolf. Because then we would be pretty much forced to lynch Lottie, and if we are wrong, that puts us in a dire much catch wolf situation.

If Lottie is a wolf, there is a huge pay-off. We've figured out the wolves plan and this answers questions about Bes, as well as whether this suspecting Lommy business was wolv-foolery or not.

[satansaloser2005]

I was thinking last Night....what if we have a father-daughter wolf team?:eek:


I'd go for Bes, Lommie, and Brinn. Really no particular order on the first two now so if people did want to let Lommie go I'd give my reluctant approval.

[satansaloser2005]

I disagree, it's something that's worth the risk. If we're wrong, we lose an innocent, and not to sound heartless but that isn't as damaging as going for another candidate and risk lynching/dragging out one of the gifteds. If we're wrong about Lottie, we maintain our 2 gifteds and overall the situation is still pretty good.

Plus, since there has been lots of talk about it, if Lottie is an innocent the wolves aren't going to do us a favor in kill her. So, essentially you will be stuck with the same decision you're faced with today. Maybe it's only because I've had more time to brood over this than you, but I do not want to be in the same situation tomorrow, especially if we don't get a wolf. Because then we would be pretty much forced to lynch Lottie, and if we are wrong, that puts us in a dire much catch wolf situation.

If Lottie is a wolf, there is a huge pay-off. We've figured out the wolves plan and this answers questions about Bes, as well as whether this suspecting Lommy business was wolv-foolery or not.

You do have a point. I'm just not comfortable with it is all.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Suspected at the beginning of the day - Lommy, Nogrod, Boro
Suspect now - Bes, Lottie
Don't really suspect - Brinn
Under radar - Sally, Morsul, Nerwen

That's a VERY rough list of how I'm feeling right now. I don't think I've ever been so indecisive.

Edit: X'ed with Boro, Sally, Sally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I disagree, it's something that's worth the risk. If we're wrong, we lose an innocent, and not to sound heartless but that isn't as damaging as going for another candidate and risk lynching/dragging out one of the gifteds. If we're wrong about Lottie, we maintain our 2 gifteds and overall the situation is still pretty good.

Plus, since there has been lots of talk about it, if Lottie is an innocent the wolves aren't going to do us a favor in kill her. So, essentially you will be stuck with the same decision you're faced with today. Maybe it's only because I've had more time to brood over this than you, but I do not want to be in the same situation tomorrow, especially if we don't get a wolf. Because then we would be pretty much forced to lynch Lottie, and if we are wrong, that puts us in a dire much catch wolf situation.

If Lottie is a wolf, there is a huge pay-off. We've figured out the wolves plan and this answers questions about Bes, as well as whether this suspecting Lommy business was wolv-foolery or not.

Quite a change from yesterDay, isn't it, Boro?

[Nogrod]

Let me add Shasta (because of some interactions with Lottie & Bes) and Boro (coolly opportunistic = if my theory of Lottie is wrong lynch him! :rolleyes:)...

But really Lottie would do... or Bes.

[Thinlómien]

if people did want to let Lommie go I'd give my reluctant approvalI'm all for that option! ;)

Now I'm thinking... if there are three wolves now, there's seven innocents. But if we lynch an innocent toDay and one dies next Night, it's a 5-3 situation and that is rather scary... so I'm thinking we really probably might have to lynch Lottie toDay just to make sure there are not three wolves, because if there are, the game is pretty lost already tomorrow because there's such a high amount of wolves and if they team up and get an innocent lynched, they win...


edit: xed with two shastas and one nog

[Nogrod]

Okay. Let's try Lottie?

It's the most information we can gather...

What's the tally?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now that I think about it, Nog's theory makes a bit more sense than just a one-shot dreamer, for a super-secret role, I mean.

Edit: X'ed with Lommy and Nogrod.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm all for that option! ;)


Heh. I bet you are. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, this last-half-hour bandwagon swing towards Lottie stinks of something.

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

[Boromir88]

I also find it extremely fascinating that Boro is willing to pull a complete 180, not only on Bes, but on Lottie as well, from saying she's a "known innocent" to "let's lynch her today", based solely on a (unproven) theory by Nog that may or may not be true.


Let me say this again to get it through your thick-head. :p

It's a risk worth taking today because of the odds. And today is not yesterday. Yesterday I was trying to challenge Lottie to make the wolves regret not killing her (because I was under the impression they didn't see her as a threat even as a known innocent). Now, there's been new info about the secret-role today which has changed my mind. Yet again, let me point out that at least my 180 fits because I was presented with a new viewpoint that contradicted my previous thoughts about Lottie. Bes, was presented with something that supported his distrust of Lottie a few days ago, but somehow switched.

Bottomline is with Lottie we either get a wolf, and have discovered their plans. Or an innocent and lose a day, which may sound heartless, but we still maintain the 2-gifteds and know about Lottie for sure. (Plus the more information we can gain by finding out). This is a risk where the odds of being correct is a huge pay off, and being wrong isn't all that bad.

[Thinlómien]

Let me add Shasta (because of some interactions with Lottie & Bes) and Boro (coolly opportunistic = if my theory of Lottie is wrong lynch him! :rolleyes:)...Haha, I was just thinking "if we lynch Lottie and she's innocent, we had better do something about Nog and Boro the Day after!" So, great minds think alike? ;) Although it's really always a bit questionable to draw very straightforward conclusions like that...

edit: xed with all

[Nogrod]

++ Lottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now, there's been new info about the secret-role today which has changed my mind.

WRONG. You can't declare Nogrod's theory concrete information and base decisions off it.

Edit: X'ed with Nogrod.

[Thinlómien]

Okay. Let's try Lottie?

It's the most information we can gather...

What's the tally?I'm for that, but don't expect me to vote early, I have my own skin to think about... *sigh*

I think the tally is me 2, Sally 1.


edit:xed with all again

[Nogrod]

Sorry... I tried to "preview" to see whether there were new posts and hit the submit button...

Well I meant to do that anyway...

[Boromir88]

Damn I hope you're right or I'm a dead man.

++Lottie

[Thinlómien]

WRONG. You can't declare Nogrod's theory concrete information and base decisions off it.The theory is not, but the previous rules about the role sort of are...

[satansaloser2005]

Alright, this last-half-hour bandwagon swing towards Lottie stinks of something.

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

Seconded. If she's a wolf, great, but if not I'll be really REALLY unhappy.

Haha, I was just thinking "if we lynch Lottie and she's innocent, we had better do something about Nog and Boro the Day after!" So, great minds think alike? ;) Although it's really always a bit questionable to draw very straightforward conclusions like that...

edit: xed with all

Something like that. I'll still be after you though, precious. ;)

WRONG. You can't declare Nogrod's theory concrete information and base decisions off it.

Edit: X'ed with Nogrod.

Seconded again.

[Nogrod]

Alright, this last-half-hour bandwagon swing towards Lottie stinks of something.It's not the last half an hour thing for me at least Shasta... I've spent quite a lot of time with it. :rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In fact I think that's what bothers me the most about this bandwagon - has anyone considered the opposite side of this coin? Like, for instance, we lose a Gifted (because that's what Lottie is, no matter if she's used her gift up or not), and the wolves succeed in making us waste a lynch on her. Haven't we been discussing that the wolves don't dare kill Lottie? If Nog is wrong about Lottie, this whole manuever fits right into their plans.

Edit: X'ed with Lommy, Nog, Boro, Sally, Nog.

[Thinlómien]

++Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

In fact I think that's what bothers me the most about this bandwagon - has anyone considered the opposite side of this coin? Like, for instance, we lose a Gifted (because that's what Lottie is, no matter if she's used her gift up or not), and the wolves succeed in making us waste a lynch on her. Haven't we been discussing that the wolves don't dare kill Lottie? If Nog is wrong about Lottie, this whole manuever fits right into their plans.

Shasta, what do you think about trying for Bes? Or Lommie?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The theory is not, but the previous rules about the role sort of are...

So you can read Legate's mind, then?

Edit: X'ed with Lommy and Sally. Bes for me is a byproduct of all this Lottie suspicion, so...

[Thinlómien]

In fact I think that's what bothers me the most about this bandwagon - has anyone considered the opposite side of this coin? Like, for instance, we lose a Gifted (because that's what Lottie is, no matter if she's used her gift up or not), and the wolves succeed in making us waste a lynch on her. Haven't we been discussing that the wolves don't dare kill Lottie? If Nog is wrong about Lottie, this whole manuever fits right into their plans.Yes but at least we don't lose a working gifted or (sorry to say) an innocent who contributes a lot (for the past few Days, Lottie hasn't made any real points, just said I'm suspicious and vote me. We can afford to lose an innocent who is not putting her time to think about different options.)

[satansaloser2005]

The theory is not, but the previous rules about the role sort of are...

Yes, but this isn't the same game.


I don't like it when people think they can read the mod's brain. Makes me think they know something they wouldn't if they were innocent.

[Nogrod]

WRONG. You can't declare Nogrod's theory concrete information and base decisions off it.Cool down Shasta... I hope it's not semantics again... I don't think Boro said it was "concrete information". To me at least it is a perfectly believable hypothesis that should be checked. If we had three wolves we really should get rid of one toDay - and we're wrong, as Boro said, we can afford to lose an inncent just to be sure. And what would be the gains if we got it right?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I can't in good conscience go along with this at the moment.

++Lommy

Edit: X'ed with Nogrod.