Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[A Little Green]

I could have been, indeed. Well, especially if Legate and me would both have been wolves, we would had definitively jumped on Lottie with no hesitation.

There's just one crucial "but" though...


Anyway, that's actually quite a nice theory. We should put it forwards as the third option-theory? The wolves and I do know it's not true, but to all you others it might make sense - and the wolves might love to have a go with it.
Okay, wait, what? I am absolutely not sure what to make of this. Why would you say something like that? Unless a) you are a Cobbler, b) you are a Wolf trying to drag me down with you by association? Or what?!?

Now I'm really thinking the reason for Lottie's death might really be her last point at Nog and now that people noticed it, he's preparing himself a collateral.I read that as frustrated Nog overreacting to a theory that incriminates him - and conveniently implying anyone who suspects him is a wolf. I remember him doing stuff like this before whatever his role, so I didn't read that much into it. Kind of on par with Nilp spending D1 telling everyone he's a wolf. :rolleyes: Legate's response is borderline over-jumpy, though understandable.

Incidentally, I did have a brief look at Legate's posts. Not much stood out to me either way - there's some game mechanics talk and comments on how quiet it is, but also what was probably the only list post of D1. He votes for Form, saying he prefers him to Huin. Had previously said Brinn and Form discussed wolf strategies in a way that looked like they had already had the discussion the Night before. No alarm bells here. D2 he analyses first the Lottie kill and then the Huin lynch. His post on Lottie did make me raise an eyebrow - he mentions framing him as a possible motive, though to his credit doesn't seem to think it likely. In the same post, he also pretty much discredits the idea that the wolves thought Lottie was the Seer who dreamed of Huin by saying they would think a potential Seer who dreamed an innocent on N1 was "no big deal". This is a distinctly weird argument, but would be even weirder if Legate was a wolf since the Huin theory would be a good counter-argument against the suspicion he would have known he'd come under.

Overall, reading Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence. (Unless he's the NW, in which case all bets are off.) What I do find interesting though is the dynamic between Nog and Legate as each of them now seems to think the Lottie kill incriminates the other. *fetches popcorn* Joking aside though, this unnerves me as I think there's still a decent chance they're both innocent - Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

I've now caused myself a flip-flop headache. Should probably look at other people too...

[satansaloser2005]

Here and reading.

[Blind Guardian]

BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

Okay here's my spreadsheet so far

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Form and Nog are underlined because I thought they were most likely to be Wolves. I also have Form on my Cobbler list because other people think that he's a Cobbler.

Up until Nog voted it was a tie between Nilp, Form, and hS. Nogwolf broke that tie and pushed the voting towards hS. At the same time he protected buddy Formwolf.

Legate is on the list because Lottie voted for him.

Sally is on that list for dumb dumb reasons (she referred to herself as "it").


1 Cobbler
Form, Pitch, Nilp
Pitch is my most likely Cobbler due to that fish boot comment. Although I did like his explanation I still felt that could have been a coverup.

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.


1 Seer
No comment yet...

1Ranger
Shasta was present on Day 1 but didn't really say that much. I felt like he was active but not saying anything to be suspicious.

1 Beast Hunter

Nog (post 10)

Okay bear with me. This might only make sense in my head. And yes, I know, flip-flopping.

Looking at what these beasts have done to Mr. Boro, I can't help thinking we need to take some measures we would not be comfortable taking in any normal circumstances.

Am I crazy?? Beast + measures not comfortable (hunting wolves)... = beast hunter?

6 Villagers
Huinesoron
Loslote

Others
I'm not sure why Pitch voted for Kath.

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.


That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]
__________________

That's it? So pretty much a throwaway vote?

Okay that's all for now. I have to go for a bit.

Took 30+ minutes to type this up so most likely X'ed with a bunch.

[Macalaure]

Just skimmed the Day to see if anything pops out.

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.
If you don't say it, it didn't happen. :p Anyway though, I'm buying this explanation. I actually find it a little eyebrow-raising that Brinn and Legate are so over this.

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...
It definitely depends on how sure you are, though. Say you're a wolf and someone suspects you Day1 and then you night-kill them for suspecting them to be the seer, but you happen to be wrong. Now you repeat that during the next night and the next and... there's no way the village lets you live through all of that. With all seer-hunting, wolves also have to make sure the kills don't leave an obvious trail. A vague seer suspicion might not always be worth it.

This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*
I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?
No spreadsheet-shaming! :p

This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.
That's not exactly what I meant. There's two ways to interpret the voting, I think:

- One or both of Nilp and Form is a wolf and the wolves needed Hui to die instead. Rikae tieing him with Form, and then of course Nog and Kath's votes are suspicious in this case.

- Or neither is a wolf, in which case the wolves could've done anything they wanted, with throwaway-votes being slightly suspicious (Brinn, Pitch, and yes, me).

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).I guess I should have written my post under a 'J'accuse' byline (as I had thought of doing).

I am suspecting Mac of being a Wolf, if that's not clear enough.

On the basis of Lottie's death alone (assuming reasonable Wolves looking for the Seer), these three are implicated
Legate
Nog
Mac (by the reasoning Nog and I have advanced

Based on little more than ill-defined feelings, Mac is most suspicious to me on that list, followed by Legate and Nog, in that order.

[Nogrod]

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.


I'll best go back taking over the Marshalls and Gilbert Islands from the Japanese.

[Kath]

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?
I have never done this. It may explain why I rarely win. :D

I'm not properly around yet but having skimmed these things I do not like:
There is also this:
I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.
To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?
Having picked the Mac thing up from Nog, he continues with it.

And then in BG's post 253 they seem to be actively trying to out Gifteds.

Deliberately pointing out potential Gifted's is, to me at least, not a good thing for the village.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not seeing why poor Huey was lynched yesterDay. Of the people on the block, I found Kath and Form to be more suspicious, though of course I didn't read in detail until I was feeling better and therefore had the knowledge of Huey's innocence. Also got weird vibes reading Mac. More on that later I hope.

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler

Fork, now to bold the list and get back to more detailed thoughts. My headache is coming back too. :eek:

x'd since my last

[Pitchwife]

BG, for crying out loud, we don't tell the whole village who we think the Gifted are!:mad:
(I really don't know what to make of BG at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with her conclusions (except as concerns myself, obviously), but the way she gets there is kind of weird and awkward.)
As for my Kath vote, although I said to Hui I couldn't see a wolf plot against him 'tween Kath and Lottie, I still thought (and think) Kath by herself could be a wolf for reasons I've explained more than once now.

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.
Of course we all do it, but as you say, it shouldn't be said out loud. Also it could be used to cover for a fellow wolf, making people think they might be gifted instead of wolvish.

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?
No details about your married life, please.

[Nogrod]

PS. No, I'm not quitting the game. I'm just a bit frustrated at the moment and will take a break (heh, just came back...).

And no, I'm not going to get dragged into defence-mode. That fun of spoiling my game I'm not allowing the wolves to have.

[satansaloser2005]

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.

This reads as a legitimately frustrated innocent Nog to me. Nog is normally facts and figures, not airing of any frustration, so I feel much better about him now. Also, don't shut up. We need you!


Hmm. Having read everything, basically more than half of the village give me actively innocent vibes, which is worriesome. (I mean, more than half of the village ARE innocent, but I doubt I'm very accurate. :p)

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?


I'm better now. Moving on....


x'd since my last again

[A Little Green]

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better. Not necessarily. Kath's vote didn't look at all panicky to me - she got the ball rolling on the entire Huin thing very early on in the Day, then came back after it had become a wagon and voted for him. If anything, it looks almost too choreographed.

I haven't had time to go through everyone as I hoped, but just quickly -

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. :p I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

[satansaloser2005]

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726449&postcount=228) read like a paraphrase of my #222 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726441&postcount=222) with a higher word count?


I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.

[Pitchwife]

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.


I'll best go back taking over the Marshalls and Gilbert Islands from the Japanese.
No no, not so. I mean, I get your frustration - it reminds me of my first couple of WW games (the Mr Agreeable period) when I was trying to figure out how the hezmana I was supposed to be playing so as not to make myself suspicious as an innocent - but at the same time, this is how the game is played, and you know it.


And you're not suspected for voting early but for lynching an innocent with forced reasoning. That's a difference. So expect virtual hugses galore but no quarter.

[satansaloser2005]

I need to step away from screens for a bit. I'll be back with plenty of time to vote. :)

[Rikae]

On Lottie's day 1 posts:
Let's not forget, in her very second post, her first mention of anyone, she banteringly goes after Form. This could have made a Form-wolf antsy - however, she voted for someone else when Form was in danger of being lynched, and that *should* have neutralized that.

Incidentally, just want to get this out there: the idea that there was little opposition to the Hui wagon = no wolves in danger doesn't quite hold water. It could just mean the wolves sat on their paws and hoped for the best rather than risk leaving a trail. This could especially be the case if they already thought the wolf in jeopardy was seer-dreamed or otherwise a lost cause (and I could totally see them leaving a packmate Nilp or Form to take his chances). So I'm not going to discount the possibility of a Nilp or Form wolf here.

#154 I get good vibes from*Greenie,*Rikae*and*Brinn, and pretty good vibes from*Shasta*and*Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question*Blind Guardian*or*Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people.

A Greenie, Rikae(hey, you don't know my role), Brinn, Shasta, BG or Sallywolf would have been perfectly happy to kill Lottie immediately if they thought she looked otherwise seerish, but nothing here would have made it any more likely. Of course, with only one dream most of the seer's posting is just going to be guesswork anyway, but a potential seer on the wrong track is less of an immediate threat to the wolves than a potential seer on the right track.

No wolf points.

With that in mind:
That leaves*Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy*as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about*Kath*or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about*Nog, Legate, and Lommy*by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

... no wolf points there either. It's very noncommittal, I don't think any of these people as wolves would be particularly worried about Lottie after reading this.

And one thing that jumped out at me just now, from toDay. Nog says this would have looked seerish:
I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

I disagree. Not another wolf point for Nog because one could reasonably disagree on this, but I don't think that looks seerish at all and therefore wouldn't put stock in theories based on that. I'd actually even put it in "things a seer might hesitate to say but a non-seer wouldn't think twice about saying" category.

As of now Form still looks vaguely suspicious to me, and Nogrod is worrying me but I don't want to put too much weight on him being a bit paranoid - that's led me astray before.

[Formendacil]

On the subject of why everything's quiet today, I can only speak for myself: it's a Sunday and the weather is gorgeous here. (Which may end the Excel experimeent... I haven't been keeping up with even the minor posts! Though we'll see... if work is uncharacteristically dead on a Monday tomorrow...).

Thoughts thus far:

Blind Guardian - Overall, I'm suspicious, but I think that's mostly just that she popped out of nowhere and got a lynchwaggon rolling toward me yesterday. Her posts today strengthen my mistrust.

Brinniel - True neutral. She hasn't left much of an impression--she was right on the cusp of the bottom three for impact yesterDay and I haven't been engaged as much toDay. Neutral is bad, but I'm not sure it's suspicious.

Kath - I thought something looked a bit off when I posted this morning, and I don't seem to be the only one. Her vote for Huin simultaneously looks like hiding her reasoning in a bandwaggon AND the final nail in Huin's coffin. Can it be both? She's one of my top two suspects.

Legate - Not suspicious to me yet. Maybe he should be? Just from Life (aka, Facebook and a dozen years in the forums), I feel like I *ought* to have an opinion.

A Little Green - Falls into the "would have liked more posts" column, but the few that have been seem substantive enough. This could be a wolf trying to thread the "don't lurk, don't drawn attention" needle, but she's not on my radar.

Macalaure - Has seemed more active today (or is that just the rest of us being less active?). Roughly in the same category as Greenie: I have no real opinion.

Nilpaurion - I had no idea what his role was yesterDay... and somehow I have even less idea today. Does this mean that Nilp is actually Cobblering by... doing nothing suspicious? I don't know that I trust him, but I don't think he's a wolf.

Nogrod - He's drawn attention to doings things differently than in past, and I think it's been laboured a bit too much. But I also don't think he'd do that as a Wolf? But I *do* think he would be cunning enough to try it as a Wolf. Layers upon layers. I lean suspicious, but not my first choice to lynch on that score.

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.

Rikae - Rubbed me the wrong way yesterDay, but I don't know why I think that... Just because they disagreed with me?

Sally - Too little data. Completely unscientific, but people with real life issues rarely seem to be Wolves... so my gut feeling says to not worry about for now.

Shasta - I feel like I OUGHT to mistrust Shasta, but I don't.

Thinlómien - I feel less strongly about her Wrongness than she does about mine, but for now I think she's probably Not a Wolf.




So... my wolfpack nominees appear to be Pitch, Kath, Nog?, and a wolf to be uncovered later.


EDIT: X-posted with everyone since Sally in 528.

[A Little Green]

Nog, have some chocolate and come back please. <3

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.
Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

[Formendacil]

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I still think Pitch is exactly the Cobbler, although I also thought Huin was the NW, so.

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.

I was honestly a bit surprised to see the Huin-wagon happen, given the state of the thread when I left. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf there; it also wouldn't surprise me if there was one in the set of people decrying his innocence after the wagon was set in motion. Those are the two groups I'll look into when I get time tonight.

[Macalaure]

Greenie - I find myself agreeing with her mostly, but something about her overall tone makes me uneasy.

BG - A wolf wouldn't do the things she's doing, I think.

Brinn - Not much of a read yet, slightly leaning innocent atm.

Form - No read whatsoever.

Kath - I get where Greenie is coming from, but I feel too unsure about it right now. Wait and see.

Legate - Something feels off about him.

Nog - Something feels very off about him.

Nilp - "Mac (by the reasoning Nog and I have advanced)" - you're kidding, right? :rolleyes:

Pitch - Still not a fan of his vote yesterDay, but he seems fairly innocent toDay. Another wait and see.

Rikae - Feels fairly innocent.

Sally - Not much to go on yet. Repeats my point that Legate is repeating points. Yet I'm the one with the stones in the glasshouse. :p

Shasta - Still suspicious because of his behavior yesterDay. Hasn't changed.

Lommy - Feels fairly innocent.

[Kath]

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?
I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

[Macalaure]

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.
Do explain then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.

I'm sensitive to mentions of me (:p) which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.

[Pitchwife]

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?
Hey, I did bat an eye (#243)! I agree a wolf has no need of that (except if you think you can get them lynched or at least put enough pressure on them to force a reveal and confirm your suspicion, but normally you'd just kill them at Night, much less risky). A cobbler might, though, which fits my read on Form since pretty well the beginning of D1.


As for BG, well. I've noticed she seems to rely a lot on stuff other people have said (cf. 'Form as the cobbler because people say he may be'), which is not what we'd usually expect of an innocent, but in her case it's so blatant it may just be her playstyle, so I'm beginning to reconsider how suspicious her piggybacking on Hui's vote actually was.


No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.
Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Do explain then.

Well, for starters, this -


Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.

- is not quite what I said.

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

[Kath]

I'm sensitive to mentions of me (:p) which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.
You're quite right and now you bring it up I think I did notice it when I first read through but missed it when skimming to find where I'd seen something about Gifteds that had bothered me.

So then Form, Nog, Nilp, BG. I sincerely doubt all four of them are wolves. Nilp's comment picked up on what Nog had said, which makes me think he is the more suspicious for it. BG is just ... I mean that whole post was picking out potential Gifteds and that is just a bad idea.

[Formendacil]

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

Well, yes--it's the whole package and what actually happened that I find suspicious. Take out some of the pieces, and the whole Jenga falls.

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

[Pitchwife]

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.
No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

[Macalaure]

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.
=/=
Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I dunno, I just don't see a point for wolves to do that. Especially with how it's being pointed out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Brinniel]

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.

I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?
I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Well. The Japanese are fighting back ferociously so I decided to take a pause from the combat fatigue and see what's going on in here.

Some unarranged thoughts.

BG looks like a rookie trying to learn the ropes and making a few fumbles on the way. That said there was at least one newbie-wolf back in the days who took all the juice out of the role of being a newbie and went far - did they even win? I don't remember who it was, but it was several years ago. Anyway BG is not topping my list of possible wolves.

Rikae I find a bit confusing - albeit that is more a "feeling-thing". I'm used to not feel secure or easy about her ever, but normally she does turn into quite reasonable and productive player if innocent. Thus far I haven't felt it. Well, it's Day2 so there's time for that transformation to take place.

ShastaI've liked thus far, well yesterDay, as toDay he hasn't said much but explain some of his posts from Day1. Why? Because he was one of the very few who actually made points about others - and they were reasonable points to my ear (and mind) at least.

I have disturbing vibes from Kath, Form and Brinn, maybe also of Greenie. Some of them are related to the points already raised by some others, the rest are just personal feelings of something not being quite honest there.

I still see Legate as the best bet to vote, but I'll see if I can find better choices during the last hour.

(Say what you say, but I still think my points are valid. Instead of yelling "no!", please offer a more logical, or better fact-serving, theory of Lottie's death.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

=/=


I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.



Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy. I said I didn't have anywhere I was more comfortable voting, which was true - the only other place I might have gone was Pitch but I didn't want to vote for a perceived Cobbler.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.


I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around. :rolleyes:

That's an interesting point - maybe the NW would do it in order to draw votes.

[Boromir88]

1 Hour to go.
:D
Quick tally...Uh that was super quick

Greenie > Kath

*Waits for this posting explosion :D

[Macalaure]

what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?This is a good point, though. A wolf might slip, sure, but other than that they have no reason to. It's the cobbler who has most interest in starting that discussion. Of all the ones accused (Nog, Nilp, Form, BG, did I miss one?), I'd actually say it makes them more innocent, with the exception of Nilp, who spins it in the despicably sinister direction of suspecting me. :p

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy.Well, fine for now. You're not my prime suspect at the moment, so I don't want to get into an argument right now. We'll see.

[Thinlómien]

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726481&postcount=250). I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.Somehing to keep in mind, yes. I get both "frustrated innocent" and "frustrated wolf who thinks he's being suspected for the wrong reasons" from his posts at the moment. Flipety flipety flip flop. Don't know what to think.

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies. 1) You should not vote for cobblers but for wolves anyway, 2) why would suicidal tendencies disqualify someone as a lynch candidate? Also, in my experience, Nilp only nilps himself on Day1, if he survives that he starts playing more "normally" - as we have seen toDay. (Btw personally I'm still flipflopping on Nilp because he was fishy yesterDay, then a lot more reasonable toDay, but everything doesn't still quite add up.)

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?You're not suspicious. What I said was, basically half of the village is actively giving me innocent vibes. You are not, because you havent been around and aren't giving any vibes. Thus you are a more likely wolf than someone who seems actively innocent to me. Makes sense?

Re: discussing gifteds - I don't think it's a deliberate tactic from anybody (except maybe the cobbler!), it's either careless wolves (who are spicing their stories with "jumpy but could be guilty jumpy or innocent jumpy", possibly more likely about their fellows; and who are not considering an innocent should not stay stuff like that) or even more careless innocents (who do not realise they should not be doing that).

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.*poke* :Merisu:

[Nogrod]

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.
Yes. I agree wholeheartedly. That said...

I promised not to make any defenses, but this has larger bearing than just my fate in this game. I mean, yes, I brought up the idea of Mac being possibly a choice for the wolves as the Seer - so I'm part of the problem? BUT, I thought it was obvious to anyone who read my posts, that I was making it a case that showed how bad the idea of thinking Lottie a Seer was based on her saying Hui is innocent. Like: if you thought that would be reason enough, then even this would be better (or as good).

My point was, and is, that Legate-version is much more believable - because even Mac could be seen as the Seer if that kind of posting would be a reasonable thing to pay heed to (Sure: frantic wolves desperate to find the Seer might of course take any straw they find to be grasped). Like someone has said already: it would be really odd, if Seer-Mac would have said something like that. He knows better than that.

[Pitchwife]

I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?
Actually it might make sense for a NW who is reckoning to get lynched and have no further chance of Night-talking with their pack.


I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.
I don't either, but so far she's looking rather innocentish to me.


Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:


Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.

[Blind Guardian]

++Form

I gotta go and I gotta vote for someone so I'll just double down on yesterDays vote.

X'ed with all since BoroMod

[Kath]

Yes. I agree wholeheartedly. That said...

I promised not to make any defenses, but this has larger bearing than just my fate in this game. I mean, yes, I brought up the idea of Mac being possibly a choice for the wolves as the Seer - so I'm part of the problem? BUT, I thought it was obvious to anyone who read my posts, that I was making it a case that showed how bad the idea of thinking Lottie a Seer was based on her saying Hui is innocent. Like: if you thought that would be reason enough, then even this would be better (or as good).

My point was, and is, that Legate-version is much more believable - because even Mac could be seen as the Seer if that kind of posting would be a reasonable thing to pay heed to (Sure: frantic wolves desperate to find the Seer might of course take any straw they find to be grasped). Like someone has said already: it would be really odd, if Seer-Mac would have said something like that. He knows better than that.
I think this does actually make sense and if this is what Nog meant in the first place and just worded it really badly then it makes me feel better about him.

[Thinlómien]

I know it's late but a quick list bc I can't think otherwise (also bc a lot of people seem less innocent to me now that they have posted more, lol):

Nice
BG - strong clueless ordo who hasn't played in a while vibes
Mac - gut feeling says innocent, logic says I should question that bc last game gut feeling said guilty and he was innocent. But logic also failed me last game, so I'm just gonna give him the benefit of doubt for toDay. :rolleyes::D

Kinda nice
Pitchwife and Greenie - don't seem über innocent but not very guilty either and also, I like their independent thinking
Kath - don't really see where all the suspicion against her is coming from - wolves trying to orchestrate a nice lynch? I maintain she seems more cheerful as an innocent and more detached as a wolf and now she's the former. Nonetheless, her involvement in the Hui lynch is a bit dodgy.

Who knows
Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf
Nogrod - ugh, what a mess
Brinn - to be fair, she hasn't done anything really suspicious but she doesn't give me any strong innocent vibes like almost most others in the village
Nilp - dodgy yesterDay, seemed better toDay, but when I think about it, maybe not better enough?
Shasta and Rikae - both seemed rather innocent to me yesterDay, toDay less so
Sally - not enough data. Doesn't seem to suspect much people which is usually wolfy, but then again, I seem to have the same problem myself...
Form - still not sitting right with me but still aware it might be very kneejerk


edit: xed with everyone

[Macalaure]

I'm echoing Kath in regards to feeling better about Nog now that he explained himself better. It makes Nilp look worse at the same time, though admittedly I might be biased since it's a reaction to his suspicion of me.

Rikae/Mac
<3

:D

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... quickly, because I don't want to spend a decade quoting everything and then finding out it's again fifteen to DL.

Not sure what to think of the whole "let's discuss Gifteds" thing. The only person who would have a reason to discuss it openly is a Cobbler. This was the first time I thought BG might be a Cobbler (unless it's some super-clever self-defense, as in, "I am a Wolf but now I will pretend I am only a Cobbler").

Nog's frustration is understandable, but I want to resist starting meta-speculating whether he would do it with whichever role. In any case, he now seems like he has dug himself in his theory that he is repeating infinitely, but whether it's innocent or a Wolf defending to the one thing he has made the center of his Day I can't tell.

Otherwise: Sally's list actually puts her into my orange category. Of course it's essentially her first post with some more content in the whole game, so that's not enough to base any coherent picture on. But on first sight, it's sort of noncommittal, or very "bare bones". Feeling fabricated would be the word. It of course may be simply one written quickly, as lists are, but it does not say very much.

Form's list I also don't like and it makes me more suspicious of him.

I see Shasta is back, which is good. I am having a bit of strange vibe from him in the sense that yes, he is quoting and pointing out things, but at times feeling somewhat defensive (?). Including the remark of "although I was wrong about Hui, so..." But it's mostly a vibe, so nothing I actually would base much on at this point. It only confuses me a bit because yesterDay, I got much better impression from him.

EDIT: x-ed since Pitch

[Formendacil]

I daresay it's a case of closing the barn door after all the horses have left, but as regards defending myself of accusations of not knowing what "everyone knows," I'm basically a newbie. I haven't played in something like three or four years, and before that another couple years... so, yeah, I'm not exactly a grizzled veteran of the WW wars anymore.

Anyway, because I have difficulty admitting I can be wrong, I won't. Instead, I'll say I like Kath having a vote, and it's getting to be suppertime, so... alea iacta est.

++Kath

[Boromir88]

A quick tally...

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)

Oi, that's an even quicker tally.

I considered playing a prank, but it seems you'll have enough confusion with the final 30 minutes. So let the staring contest continue.

30 minutes to go.

Edit: crossed with Form. Added his vote.

[Thinlómien]

I feel like we were playing another Day1. It would be nice to lynch a wolf toDay (wow really :eek: ) and have more to analyse toMorrow. I kinda don't like our odds toDay, everything looks horribly messy. And half an hour to go only. :eek:

Any thoughts about who people would like to see lynched?

I have to say that I personally don't have a strong preference, except NOT BG, Mac, Greenie, Pitch, or Kath. Or basically anything that starts looking "too easy".

Form would be okay. Nilp? Maaaaybe Rikae or Shasta. I'm a bit on the fence about Legate and Nogrod.

Brinn or Sally? If it happened I wouldn't cry (sorry lovelies!) but I don't really have a reason to push it.

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

[Thinlómien]

I don't know what to think of everybody collectively lifting Nog off the hook. Fellow wolves happy to get an excuse not to bus him?

[Nogrod]

Besides Legate I might be persuade to vote for...

Form - not adding more points besides many that are voiced already, but maybe that it feels he's overdoing it.

Brinn - she's very good at this, but looks like 100% non-committant, mainly agreeing and rubbing people the right way - and her suspicions feel more like blowing in the embers to see if they would light up.


EDIT: X'd with fex. Form voting Kath...

[Macalaure]

Looked back over my list from earlier, and the only one I'm comfortable voting for right now is probably Nilp. I feel too on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand about everybody else I'm suspicious of. So I'm thinking I'm going to vote now and maybe gain some traction instead of throwing my vote away later or voting for someone I'd rather not vote for.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(I should've probably have Newton'd to Nog's Leibniz and claimed that I had come up with the idea independently but noticed that he had already posted it. And I was using it for my superior theory anyway, to complete the oversimplified boffin history analogy.)

Anyway, my brain took an inordinately long time trying to word this vote post without tipping the punchline, so I'll just go ahead and vote:

++Macalaure

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

[Thinlómien]

Iiiinteresting. Somehow Mac (someone who seems innocent to me) and Nilp (someone who seems fishy to me) voting for each other made me think Mac more suspicious and Nilp more okay. Makes me maybe want to steer away from both of them for toDay.

[Brinniel]

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf
I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.

Right now Nogrod is my best lynch candidate. I could go for Formy as well. A lot of his posting does seem calculated, and not in a good way.

[Pitchwife]

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

[Nogrod]

Now this is getting interesting. :eek:

Of course only when we have just twenty minutes left.

[Macalaure]

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

Maybe the reason the wolves went after Lottie instead of me is that they can only go after one at a time? :rolleyes:

[Formendacil]

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.


Because Kath already had a vote--no point my talking all day about the two of you being my chief suspects and then splittimg the vote! To use a politics analogy, this isn't ranked choice voting.

[Thinlómien]

++Formendacil

I find him more suspicious than anyone else who's got votes so far (Kath, Nilp, Mac) or other people who have been heavily suspected (Nog).

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)

15 to go.

[Nogrod]

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

[Thinlómien]

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?You could have thought about it earlier, y'know? :p

What about Form? :Merisu:

[Nogrod]

Looking at the brigth side of things: people in the Game Thread probably have something to chew toMorrow...

[Pitchwife]

Ok, the cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, but I'm still not going to vote with someone I feel is not on our side.


So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler). See no reason to vote for Mac.

[Nogrod]

What about Form? :Merisu:Like I said, he'd be my tier 2 suspect (alongside Brinn).

And if there is no way Legate is going to be lynched, I'd hate to waste my vote just to prove something.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whoa, this got really wide really fast.

I am also not entirely sure about where that Kathwagon came from. I mean, her vote was potentially incriminating (even though I would argue there are others in worse positions). And I am triple not sure what to make of BG's continuing vote for Form. It seems to me like BG is just sliding with the obvious.

I'd probably still be the most comfortable with Nog. Form might be an option, although I really don't know what to make of the whole thing with BG's vote too...

Nilp's vote is atm puzzling me because of its reasoning, but no time to dissect it now.

[Thinlómien]

9 votes to go, 9 minutes. I predict mess.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

If you hadn't spent the Day stubbornly chasing one theory :rolleyes:

But I'm feeling similar at the moment.

[Brinniel]

I don't know what to think of everybody collectively lifting Nog off the hook.
Not letting him off the hook, however the voting is already spread out...voting him may just be another throwaway. I might just vote Formy instead since he's my second candidate.

[Kath]

I'm not going to go on an all-out defence because I'm just a bog standard ordo, so at least if I get lynched then it's just a numbers loss to the village rather than anything else.

So my vote goes to:

++NILP

A self vote for Nilp is the best place to hide. He'd do it whatever so it tells us nothing about his role. Then toDay, he to me looks the most suspicious in bringing up potential Gifteds. BG - I know they said they weren't a newbie but to literally make a list saying who they think might be Gifted ... I mean it has to be rookie error or seriously bold wolf and I'm leaning toward the former. As I said, I feel better about Nog, and I think I'd need to go through Form's posts before making a judgement on him and there's no time.

Posting then I'll bold.

[Thinlómien]

Hey, whoever votes now and not later gets to steer the lynch! :Merisu:


edi: xed with everyone after Legate's last

[Rikae]

++Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, heck.

++Nogrod

EDIT: x-ed with Kath, Lommy and Rikae

[Nogrod]

Okay then.

++ Formendacil

I'll make the vote before the frenzy.

[Nogrod]

Haha. X'd with two votes to myself. :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

++Nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)


5 to go. :smokin:

[satansaloser2005]

I'm pretty sure Nog is being framed here, so....

++Kath

[Brinniel]

And suddenly now Nogrod actually is a feasible candidate.

So I'm going to put my money where my mouth is:

++Nogrod

X-ed with the last few posts

[Nogrod]

Just saying.

If I change Threads, please someone make others, especially those who voted for me, state what is the more believable reason to Lottie dying last Night.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am really thinking that Form is more likely to be a Cobbler... but then again maybe he's the NW and we're having the "let's bus me" scenario here... and with that, BG being a packmate...

But I still think Nog is more suspicious without other factors.

[Thinlómien]

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does. Such as, votes at .52 himself? :rolleyes::p

ToMorrow will CERTAINLY be interesting to analyse... not very happy about how this lynch turned around. Smells lycanthropic to me.

[satansaloser2005]

Why Kath and not Form? I currently fancy Form more of a cobbler, so I- oh, look at that, it doesn't matter anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Such as, votes at .52 himself? :rolleyes::p

ToMorrow will CERTAINLY be interesting to analyse... not very happy about how this lynch turned around. Smells lycanthropic to me.
Well I was referring to myself.

But yeah it will certainly be interesting. Fingers crossed here whoever gets lynched.

[Nogrod]

Legate and Brinn - maybe Form as well, being the one saved this way?

Who knows.

See you on the other side.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No time, sorry.

++Form

[Boromir88]

Deadline. Cease Posting.

A medium was chosen today. Once I see how that effects the vote and lynch, narration will be up.

Expect maybe within 15 mins this time. I've been adding to it again, but have some other things to make sure it's counted right.

[Boromir88]

Like the previous day, this day started uneventful as the village diplomatically discussed spreadsheets, notes and information sharing systems. Discussion on gifteds and cobblers swirled, but as the day grew older, the townspeople realized there were still 4 werewolves among them!

Tensions and suspense filled as they all stared at each other for several minutes. Even the dead were scratching their heads about what they were supposed to do with the whole town engaged in a staring contest. But suddenly they were kicked into action. Accusations with a little more teeth to them, and votes began flying around in the final moments.

"I predict chaos!" said Lommy

"Great we ended in a tie with Formendacil and Nogrod! How are we to decide?"

The village appeared to be at an impasse for the longest time because they couldn't lynch both of them. There was only one gallow!

Then suddenly one of them fainted for a moment. It was Brinniel! In a trance she uttered the words ++Nogrod. When she came-to she screamed Nogrod. Vote Nogrod. You fool! Make it Nogrod!

And that is how the village finally reached their decision. Nogrod went to the gallows today. Thus ended the 2nd day where an ordinary villager was lynched

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 3. Silence in the village.

Werewolves discuss send me kill.

Seer dream.

Ranger protect.

BH set your trap.

[Boromir88]

It was a cold and brutal night. The townspeople were hoping to get through it with any sign of hope and good news. The first 2 days and nights did not go well at all for them.

In a secret corner of the town, the werewolves were on the verge of throwing a party. There was little they could complain about as everything seemed to be progressing as planned. But the pack also knew that one of their deaths, or a ranger save, or the seer outing them could turn the tide against them in an instant. Their victim was chosen and this night they were after a rare delicacy.

As dawn arrived and everyone in the village gathered in the center again, this time Blind Guardian was missing. When they plucked up the courage to visit her house they found her on her bed, motionless. Her eyes were gouged out and apparently eaten, or missing. Truly, she was blind now! Alas, this was depressing news to the townspeople, but there was still hope. For another ordinary villager, she was, which meant all the village's powerful protectors were still alive!

A voice from beyond has a laugh... "Woah this is eerily following the same path as a village from Lake-town 9 years ago. As assured then, it is assured now, there are werewolves, and cobbler, and seer, and ranger and beast hunter." *Voice dissipates into thin air.

(The content in the narrations contains no clues to any roles or what anyone's strategy is. They're for pure and innocent fun)


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch
Blind Guardian (Villager) - Killed by pack Night 3

The Living

A Little Green
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

*With 4 villagers, 3 will have to vote for the same person to have a Medium today.*

----

Since it came up in the Dead thread as a discussion topic. It did not happen in yesterday's lynch, but the Medium's vote could lead to a tie and the question was raised how would this effect who is lynched? Who would have reached the most votes first, if the Medium tied the vote?

I've decided to go with since the dead players choose 1 player's vote to count as 2. Whoever is chosen as Medium, and whenever they vote it will automatically count as 2. So that would make the tally from yesterday:

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)
Sally > Kath (3)
Brinn > Nogrod (5) - Medium +1
Shasta > Form (4)

[Macalaure]

I've been meaning to do this all Night, so just this one quick thing before I get dinner:

If I change Threads, please someone make others, especially those who voted for me, state what is the more believable reason to Lottie dying last Night.

I believe you owe the good man an answer, you bloodthirsty lot! :p

[Rikae]

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC
:D

Edit: crossed with Mac

[Formendacil]

Huh... Blind Guardian is a surprise.

Unless the Wolves though her "discuss the Gifteds" actions yesterDay were a sign of Giftedness, the only thing I see them gaining is a lack of a trail.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.

More spreadsheets once I get back to my computer, because--spoiler alert!--I did not, as it happens, abandon it after Day 1. (We're in a summer doldrum/pandemic doldrum at work, it seems.)

[Brinniel]

First off:

Why am I so popular in the Dead Thread?! Good grief! :rolleyes:

I'd feel better about it if I had actually been right about Nogrod. I had considered voting Formy, but he was looking more cobblerish to me.

And I'm also left wondering, why BG for a Night kill? She was looking more and more like a confused innocent as the Day progressed - but surely the wolves must've spotted something that made her look seerish.

[Brinniel]

Ohh shoot I forgot the seer was a role. BRB gonna read the sticky role post again.

Everything below this line was added in various edits:

I thought the roles were Wolves, Cobble, Ranger, BH, Villagers. My spreadsheet doesn't even have seer as role on it It has failed me...
Maybe they thought this was a slip. That she didn't include the seer on the spreadsheet because she was in fact the seer.

Will I dream Dave?
This was the title of post #253. I could see the wolves thinking it a seer hint. But it seems a little too obvious.

More from #253
Okay here's my spreadsheet so far

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Form and Nog are underlined because I thought they were most likely to be Wolves. I also have Form on my Cobbler list because other people think that he's a Cobbler.

Up until Nog voted it was a tie between Nilp, Form, and hS. Nogwolf broke that tie and pushed the voting towards hS. At the same time he protected buddy Formwolf.

Legate is on the list because Lottie voted for him.

Sally is on that list for dumb dumb reasons (she referred to herself as "it").


1 Cobbler
Form, Pitch, Nilp
Pitch is my most likely Cobbler due to that fish boot comment. Although I did like his explanation I still felt that could have been a coverup.

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.


1 Seer
No comment yet...

1Ranger
Shasta was present on Day 1 but didn't really say that much. I felt like he was active but not saying anything to be suspicious.

1 Beast Hunter

Nog (post 10)

Okay bear with me. This might only make sense in my head. And yes, I know, flip-flopping.
Her analyzing gifteds was odd. Could the wolves have thought (or hoped) that she dreamt and outed a gifted Shasta? Her top candidate Formy is in both the cobbler and wolf categories which if she were a seer who dreamt of a wolf, you wouldn't expect her to do that. Though she did state that he was on the cobbler list because others put him there.

Okay, I see some where the wolves may have picked up that she could be the seer. The only player she seemed consistent about was Formy, so I would agree it doesn't look good for him.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.
And if you are a wolf, your packmates may have found you worth sacrificing for this reason (and especially if you are the NW).

[Formendacil]

I assume all the returning players went through this last game: does the fact that the Dead Thread chose Brinn as their medium suggest any endorsement of Brinn or is it strictly that the vote she was making is what they wanted to see voted?

Obviously, they KNOW as little as any of us (as evinced by their vote against what is now a Known Innocent), but is there any precedent for taking that as any sort of an endorsement? I'm acting on the assumption not, but that's a place where the "unspoken assumptions" would be valuable to know.

As promised, I looked my surprisingly-still-updated Excel file, but (guessing, as this is the first time I've used one) there is less value to it than in looking at Day 1, because Day 2 features a lot more lists and will naturally be heavily weighted, not just toward those who post the most, but toward those who are accumulating votes.

However...

That isn't to say there's nothing to observe. While it makes sense that, as the two most-voted-for candidates, Nog and I were tied in my unscientific reckoning with 57 mentioning/quoting posts each, the opposite end--with only 13 mentioning/quoting posts each--are Greenie and Lommy. For context, the next lowest is Sally, who is still making up a deficit of attention, at 18.

Now, that isn't to say that either of them are Wolves, but they are each 100% under-the-radar and, given our lack of success as a village catching any wolves, deserve some more scrutiny.

Not statistically-driven, I'm still suspicious of Pitchwife and Kath, and nothing that has happened overNight has shaken me--if anything, the fact that a BG Kill can be plausibly interpreted as an oblique means of pushing attention in my direction, I feel slightly more confirmed in suspicions. Although, push comes to shove, I think I am more concerned about Kath now, if I have to pick one of the two of them. Although Pitch has been more rambunctious (picking up a few "giving me Cobbler-vibes" around the village, and--more to the point--engaged me directly, whereas Kath didn't really engage. That could just be timezones--but she was around to vote after I did--and it could be Wolvish. It could also be both.

On the other hand...

Not counting the Medium-vote, Nog had four votes--and Pitch was one of them. Of Rikae, Legate, Brinn and himself, I find him the most suspicious, but I suspected him to begin with. Two Wolves in this batch would not surprise me; more than that would. If I had to pick a second Wolf from their number right now, I would incline toward Legate or Brinn. Rikae I trust, though for no reason I can pin down. Legate probably SHOULD get the greater scrutiny, given Nog's repeated unease with him, but Nog knew as little for certain as we do, so I don't rate Legate that much more suspicious than Brinn.

[Macalaure]

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Especially if there's a wolf, or maybe even two, in this list, I could see their alarm bells ringing. Naturally Form in particular looks bad. Then again, she underlined him just as she did with Nogrod, so that doesn't make sense. (edit: the underlining doesn't show in the quote, come on Downs!)


On to the votes:

Greenie -> Kath - no issues here
BG -> Form
Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.
Mac -> Nilp
Nilp -> Mac - not going to go into this one again...
Lommy -> Form - suspected him all along, but only because he feels wrong to her, so that's not much
Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.
Rikae -> Nogrod - and here we go with the late-start Nogwaggon. Rikae hadn't posted in a while before voting, and their reasoning before focused on his implication of Lottie's death. I'm a bit at a loss here.
Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.
Nogrod -> Form
Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.
Sally -> Kath - trying to save Nog, which is fine... Sally: why Kath and not Form?
Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be
Shasta -> Form - even without the medium this vote would have been inconsequential, so there's not much to make of it. He did mention reasonable suspicion of Form before, for what it's worth.

There's a Pitch-Kath-Form thing to untangle here.


Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.


Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

[satansaloser2005]

Why Kath and not Form? I currently fancy Form more of a cobbler, so I- oh, look at that, it doesn't matter anyway.

For Mac. Pretty simple, though I'm not sure I agree with my past self anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

Re: Brinn as the medium yesterDay, for those who are understandably confused

I can't say for sure, but I suspect this is a reference to the last game, in which Brinn was the recipient of the dead thread vote almost every Day. I don't know how much stock we should put in it unless it happens again. Then again, I'm still too busy laughing that it happened to consider if it means anything real.

[satansaloser2005]

It could be the hour, but Form seems to be equating silence with guilt (even while he says he isn't doing it), and I don't like it one bit. Do keep in mind that I was out for basically an entire Day, so my post count is naturally going to be stunted.

Anyway, to business.

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

Lommy suspected me and therefore must be punished! Just kidding. I feel a bit better about her toDay, and though it's selfish, the way she explained her "suspicions" of me (rather, her lack of innocent feelings) strikes me as an innocent Lommy. My suspicion of Form coupled with her vote for him helps, of course.

As for the other Finn sister, I don't have a good read on Greenie at all. The same is true of Shasta, Nilp, and Rikae. I need to work on that.

Then there's the other side of my suspicion.

Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people, because yesterDay could have been an extremely smooth operation to save his hide, or Kath's for that matter. Form and Kath. Form and Kath are my top suspects. Let's be fair and not single anyone out. ;)

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac. I can't find the post where I talked about Mac. I wonder if I ever submitted it? :(

To bed with me, I think. I may post a couple of other snippets here and there before I fall asleep, but I promise nothing.

[Brinniel]

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

Pitch's vote was the most bandwaggony of the Nog votes and looking through his posts, I'm not clear on the reasons for his vote and why he suspected him. Mac did make a good point that it was interesting he didn't consider voting Kath considering she was one of his top suspects yesterDay.

I did mention before that Formy appeared to be more cobblerish...but based on last Night's kill, I wonder if he's in fact the NW.

Okay, I am falling asleep as I write this, so time for bed..

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm a bit surprised you guys went the Nog route - I would have expected something like Pitch, Kath, or Form, but Nog I thought was fairly solidly good. Hm. Makes me wonder how evil-driven that execution was.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm still in cobbler-Pitch land. I'm not sure what it's going to take to shake me from that, bar someone else dying as the cobbler. :rolleyes:

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second. There's something to that, I think - I'll give it a look tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

I’m not sure what to make of how convinced Mac suddenly is that Form is a wolf – convinced enough to base the rest of his judgments on players on whether or not they could be fellows with Form. Is this just the BG kill, or am I missing something from earlier? My notes say he had Form down as “no read whatsoever” still yesterDay. Or is it like what Shasta said about Form being the runner-up both Days and surviving? (That's a fair point, incidentally.)

Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.
…
Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.
This doesn’t make any sense. Like, the argument against Form here is fair enough, and I agree it makes Form and Kath look like a fairly unlikely pairing, but how does that alone make Kath’s vote look good? Why is a scenario where Kath is a wolf and Form isn’t not an option? This then continues with -

Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.
Again, I agree with the basic conclusion here – Pitch’s vote looks possibly the sketchiest of the Nog-lot, especially in connection with Kath. But again, Mac refutes this with how this would only fit if Form was innocent, but that’s too many ifs. Like, where did this come from? How is "if Form is innocent" more of a stretch than "if Form is a wolf"?

Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be
…
Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.
Unrelated to Form, but I don’t agree with these conclusions about Brinn at all and in fact this makes me somewhat uneasy. First of all, I don’t think consistency equals innocence – a Brinnwolf would be just as likely to remain consistent with her earlier case against Nog as an innocent Brinn. It’s perfectly easy for a wolf to be consistent, so I don’t think Brinn’s consistence alone is a sign of anything. And second, if you don’t suspect Brinn, that’s absolutely fine, but I don’t get why the Medium thing is an argument for giving her a free pass. Even if the dead thread weren’t trolling (I love it if they were btw :D), they don’t know anything more than we do. Last game, we had a dead wolf in there pretty early on, so there was a possibility the dead thread had some information we didn’t (ie. he might have let something slip). Here, unfortunately our dead thread consists of ordos, who know just as little as everyone here.

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.
In a similar vein, I agreed with a lot of things in Sally’s list but this bit not so much. I do agree an innocent Brinn could have done that, but a Brinnwolf who had suspected Nog previously could do it just as well – especially if Form is a wolf. And that’s curious as well actually – Sally and Mac both suspect Form, but where Mac interprets everything based on whether it tallies with Form being a wolf to the point it looks odd, Sally seems to do the opposite to the point it looks odd too. This makes me wonder about Sally – the bit about Brinn looking good but how she might have to reconsider if Form turns out a wolf as her vote could have been to save Form, doesn’t make sense if Form really is her top suspect like she says in that same post. Like, if she genuinely thinks Form is the likeliest wolf here, I’d think looking at his possible fellows would factor into her judgments more than as an aside.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.
I thought the same initially, but then, I agree that this kind of frustration can be genuine regardless of role. It would also be an easy way for a wolf to score a brownie point. So I don’t think we can read too much into it either way.

And back on the subject of the Nogwagon (that sounds like a food truck btw) - we shouldn't forget Legate, either.

Whoa, this got really wide really fast.

I am also not entirely sure about where that Kathwagon came from. I mean, her vote was potentially incriminating (even though I would argue there are others in worse positions). And I am triple not sure what to make of BG's continuing vote for Form. It seems to me like BG is just sliding with the obvious.
Maybe I’m biased because I do think Kath is suspicious, but the bit about her here makes me uneasy. Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it - though would make sense if they were wolves together, either because votes for a fellow would look more threatening so he might think of it as a wagon already, or because he had an interest in presenting votes for Kath as sinister. And then there’s this –

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.
This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation.

[A Little Green]

Quick list, then I need to get back to work -

Brinniel – I’m not sure what to make of her. Her D1 vote was a very safe one for BG, D2 she was the nail in Nog’s coffin, though with all that chaos yesterDay I can’t be sure she actually knew she was. I also don’t like how both Sally and Mac seem happy to give her a pass because she’s consistent.

Formendacil – Gives me a headache. I still think the Cobbler theory is a possibility, given his discussion of Gifteds and potential Cobbler-hinting early on D1. I haven’t seen anything particularly wolfy from him per se, but I agree with Shasta that there’s a possible pattern to him ending up as the runner-up but not lynched twice in a row now.

Kath – Possibly my best lead at the moment. Her D1 Huin vote is still pretty suspicious in how it was orchestrated, and a vote for Nilp D2 doesn’t make her look any better – it was the second vote for Nilp so can’t be called an outright throwaway, but also Nilp wasn’t a very likely lynchee so keeps her nose clean. I don’t like how careful she’s playing – I mean, she’s always careful to some degree, but this looks a bit too deliberate.

Legate – Another possible wolf, especially given the Lottie kill and the odd comments at the end of yesterDay. Not sure what to make of his interaction with Kath, though – his talk of a Kathwagon yesterDay looked sketchy, but there was a bit on D1 where he misremembered BG’s vote for Form as following Kath instead of Huin. This would be an unlikely mistake to make if they were fellows, as I’d expect him to naturally keep tabs on what his fellows do and who they vote for.

Macalaure – Another headache. I’ve agreed with him a lot over this game, but I’m not at all comfortable with his posting toDay and how he’s suddenly convinced Form is a wolf. I’ll reserve judgment until I hear back from him though as I think I might have misunderstood something.

Nilp – I feel like I’ve gotten a better read of him since he stopped trying to commit suicide, and I’m not too worried at the moment.

Pitchwife – Definitely want to take a look at him toDay. I don’t like how he was suspected on D1 (including by yours truly) and somehow managed to slip by fairly unnoticed yesterDay. His Nog vote isn’t doing him any favours either, especially if Kath is a wolf.

Rikae – Like Nilp, I feel somewhat better about her. I had a quick read through her posts after yesterDay as she was involved in both lynches, but her reasoning looks pretty genuine to me. Additionally, I somehow think a Rikaewolf would play either more careful (as in, steering away from being implicated in innocent lynches twice in a row) or more confrontational/manipulative.

Sally – I’m getting slightly uneasy about her. Her list post, especially regarding Form and Brinn, seems somewhat contrived - as in, the logic looks off from an innocent POV. Nothing more substantial yet, though.

Shasta – I like to think I’m okay at reading him, and still get more or less an innocent Shasta -vibe.

Lommy – Also starting to worry me. She’s somehow more slippery and careful than usual, and pretty much under everyone’s radar. Part of this might just be due to her being around less than usual, but I don’t think that’s all of it. Another one I’d love to read through toDay if I have time.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Checking in to say that I'm trying to walk off a terrible headache. I'll be back once the brief rest and NSAIDs kick in. Don't lynch me while I'm gone, please--do it when I'm around.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Quoting as I go...
This was the title of post #253. I could see the wolves thinking it a seer hint. But it seems a little too obvious.
This definitely could be read as Seer-hint, but exactly, wouldn't that be too obvious for a real Seer? And BG was definitely far from uncontroversial. And I think about half the village suspected her to a degree, so unless they had really good reason, why kill her?

And if the Wolves thought her a Seer, her list of potential Wolves is far from clear. It includes Nog, who's a known innocent, and while Form is there in a nice position, he's also there as Cobbler.

Her analyzing gifteds was odd. Could the wolves have thought (or hoped) that she dreamt and outed a gifted Shasta?

This could make sense except it already operates with one "what-if" condition. It might really be that the Wolves just thought BG to be a Seer based on the "Will I dream, Dave" thing.

I assume all the returning players went through this last game: does the fact that the Dead Thread chose Brinn as their medium suggest any endorsement of Brinn or is it strictly that the vote she was making is what they wanted to see voted?
Funny thing now that you mention the last game... I was wondering why the Dead chose Brinn and one rather simple, yet perfectly logical solution is that they are simply continuing the trend from previous game, where giving Brinn votes from beyond the grave was essentially the main pastime of the Dead. (And I guess maybe that's what Rikae is referring to when calling it "epic".)

Otherwise: there are almost too many questions in yesterDay's vote. Partly because of its spread. Okay, I see some of them started to be answered... of those that didn't, I also do not see where did Rikae's vote for Nog exactly come from. Care to elaborate? Rikae has become increasingly untransparent to me. Same goes for Pitch's vote, only he's been untransparent already before. Why Nog and not somebody else?

Another random observation when looking at the voting list: what's the Mac-Nilp thing? Looks like the two are having a private thing of their own going on there. I get the reasoning of Mac's vote, even though to be fair, if I go back to his reasoning before the actual vote, the original suspicion is rather random. Care to elaborate? Nilp's reasoning is interesting to say the least, but I don't see why would a Wolf cast a vote like that. Unless this is some Wolf-on-Wolf while the village is concentrated on something else.

Maybe I’m biased because I do think Kath is suspicious, but the bit about her here makes me uneasy. Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it

At that point, I was first concerned that you said you prioritised Kath over Nog, because Nog seemed to me as clearer option back then. That Form was the second on the wagon did not make it look better in my eyes, it felt like Wolves were pushing to save fellow Nog (obviously now we know otherwise. Since I still don't trust Form very much, it might be worth it to go back to that point and try to figure out what was happening. But you are right that it may be nothing since it, indeed, was no big wagon at that time. But at that point, it did not look like that - it could have been the start of a big wagon).

[A Little Green]

And BG was definitely far from uncontroversial. And I think about half the village suspected her to a degree, so unless they had really good reason, why kill her?
I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”. That Legate remembers it so differently is very interesting, and I now feel like I should check back and see which one of us is right! Admittedly I’m not sure if that’s a very fruitful line of inquiry.

At that point, I was first concerned that you said you prioritised Kath over Nog, because Nog seemed to me as clearer option back then. That Form was the second on the wagon did not make it look better in my eyes, it felt like Wolves were pushing to save fellow Nog (obviously now we know otherwise. Since I still don't trust Form very much, it might be worth it to go back to that point and try to figure out what was happening. But you are right that it may be nothing since it, indeed, was no big wagon at that time. But at that point, it did not look like that - it could have been the start of a big wagon).
This still doesn’t make sense. How could the two-vote Kathwagon be an attempt to save Nog when Nog didn’t have any votes at the time? Sure, Nog was under quite a bit of fire throughout the Day, but at that point there were already people saying he’s starting to look more like a frustrated innocent. As for why I picked Kath over Nog – I thought there was a good case against both of them, but there was also a decent argument for Nog’s innocence (ie. his confusion about wolf PM rules on D1), whereas I couldn’t think of as solid an argument for Kath’s. Now I wish I’d articulated this better yesterDay, though I’m not sure if it would have actually swayed any of the Nog voters.

[Formendacil]

It could be the hour, but Form seems to be equating silence with guilt (even while he says he isn't doing it), and I don't like it one bit. Do keep in mind that I was out for basically an entire Day, so my post count is naturally going to be stunted.

That's my point: your mention count SHOULD be stunted, and yet, despite that, you're still being well out-mentioned by the village relative to Greenie and Lommy. 13 mention/quotes apiece means they were basically getting a spot in everyone's "here's how I feel about the whole village" posts and close to nothing more.

With a whole day more voting-worth-mentioning to go off, they are somehow MORE under-the-radar than you.

And, no, I'm not saying under-the-radar equates to Wolves, but by definition it means a lack of real scrutiny, and that is exactly where the Wolves would want to hide. The answer isn't to just lynch the least-scrutinised member; it's to scrutinise them.

Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that

... Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people

Because, like Shasta, I am extra-aware of my mentions, these two sentences stuck out to me, especially as they were repeated twice. Most of Sally's post emphasises her suspicion of me... but twice there is this line "if Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink."

Granted, it's about me, but I'm bothered by this. Shouldn't you start thinking through those consequences NOW, before you kill off the village's fifth ordo? And if the whole mass of your suspicions doesn't jive with me being a Wolf, reconsider them NOW rather than wasting a whole day--and a whole Innocent vote?

[Formendacil]

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second. There's something to that, I think - I'll give it a look tomorrow.

I agree with these words, but not with what I think is the thought behind them: I think I have been saved, by the Wolves--but not because I am one. With as much suspicion as I am garnering, it is in the best interests of the Wolves to keep me around as long as possible to deflect attention from them. Then, when the critical mass finally builds up and you all lynch me, they can point to the evidence that they weren't sure about me on Days 1 and 2 i their defence.

And, of course, if they buy the "Form is a Cobbler" theory, they would want to keep me around for that reason.

On which note: there's not a whole lot I can do to shake that at this point, since short of the Boro opening the heavens and speaking in my favour, you're not going to have proof of anything till I'm dead. But, isn't the point of a Cobbler help the Wolves? I have participated in the death of no Known Innocents yet! My vote for Nilp was admittedly closer to a throwaway than aught else, and my suspicions of Kath are shared by others, but until either of them are proven Innocent (especially Kath), how can my votes be determined as Cobblery?

In each case, I've voted relatively early (none of this "last fifteen minutes" cluster that Legate wrings his hands over)--but I have added to existing waggons: both of which would have saved a Known Innocent had the village followed. Granted, there's no guarantee a different Innocent might not have died, but we KNOW Known Innocents did.

So, I submit: if I am a Cobbler, am I a good one?

[Kath]

BG as the Night kill? I guess the wolves really couldn't really afford to ignore the 'Will I dream Dave?' title just in case BG really was the Seer, but I'd imagine even they had to think it was a long shot. BG had been gaining some suspicion within the village so leaving them alive would have been better for the wolves, so I guess they felt the possibility of Seerishness was worth it.

In terms of the Medium yesterDay, I have to say that as soon as I saw the reveal that it was Brinn I had to laugh. And I am assuming it's a bit of a holdover from last game. With that said, I don't think the Dead Thread would do so if they actually thought Brinn was a wolf at this point. Not saying that she isn't one, just that they don't think she is.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote.
This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense. :D

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”.
Well that's true, but I don't think the controversy magically went away with the switch of the Day. I, for one, still considered her suspicious and she would have been my top suspect if it weren't for Nog.

This still doesn’t make sense. How could the two-vote Kathwagon be an attempt to save Nog when Nog didn’t have any votes at the time? Sure, Nog was under quite a bit of fire throughout the Day, but at that point there were already people saying he’s starting to look more like a frustrated innocent.
Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

As for why I picked Kath over Nog – I thought there was a good case against both of them, but there was also a decent argument for Nog’s innocence (ie. his confusion about wolf PM rules on D1), whereas I couldn’t think of as solid an argument for Kath’s. Now I wish I’d articulated this better yesterDay, though I’m not sure if it would have actually swayed any of the Nog voters.
To be fair, that sounds a bit like hand-washing now. But fair enough.

But, isn't the point of a Cobbler help the Wolves? I have participated in the death of no Known Innocents yet!
I was about to say that Form's latest posts make him seem better - until this last sentence. There is a reasonable build-up of arguments before there, and then it suddenly goes into "I haven't lynched an innocent". That's no argument for anything. (And often, actually, quite the opposite, for Wolves who like to keep their hands clean.)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2156: Greenie – Kath (Kath – 1)
+2320: BG – Form (Kath – 1, Form – 1)
+2330: Form – Kath (Kath – 2, Form – 1)
+2337: Mac – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1)
+2337: Nilp – Mac (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2344: Lommy – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2351: Kath – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1)
+2352: Rikae – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 1)
+2352: Legate – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2353: Nog – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2354: Pitch – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Sally – Kath (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Brinn+ – Nog (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)
+2400: Shasta – Form (Kath – 3, Form – 4, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)

Two things stood out:
Kath voted for me with 9 minutes left. She was in the lead, and she remained so after her vote. I don't know if crossposting accounts for this because the second vote for her was twenty minutes before she gave me a second vote. Just found that weird.
The Nogwaggon rolled out with eight minutes and seven votes left. The leading vote-getter to that point had two. Even without the Medium, saving Nog required the other three voters to focus fire, so to speak. Splitting the votes for Form (Nog and Shasta) and one for Kath (Sally) ensured that the four votes were enough.
Why Nogrod? If any (or many) of those in danger (Kath, Form, and me) are Wolves, then it's because he's an Ordo with a reasonable amount of supsicion around him. Of course, in the unlikely case that the three of us were baddies, then the one baddie vote (barring Dead thread intervention, which should be unpredictable) shouldn't have been enough to push Nog over the line. I believe this scenario to be highly unlikely.
What if there were only one Wolf, but two Cobbler-like figures the lycans would like to keep around? Three baddie votes would be enough to push the Nogwaggon into the lead. But why risk introducing a new lynch candidate when there are two pre-existing vote-getters already? This scenario also feels unlikely, but less so than the previous one.
My gut feel is that the Nogwaggon wasn't created by Wolves to save a packmate or a possible Cobbler, even though one or two carnivores might have voted for him.

[Macalaure]

For Mac. Pretty simple, though I'm not sure I agree with my past self anymore.

Ack, I somehow missed that post. Derps. :rolleyes:


Now responding to Greenie, Form was close to getting lynched twice in a row, and if he's innocent, it gets really easy for a wolf to just tag along with the suspicions against him (and yes, I realize that's kind of what I'm doing toDay, shush! :p ), so I get where you're coming from.

So no, I'm not convinced Form is a wolf, but I suspect it. Right now I would say he's number 3 on my list after Pitch and Nilp.

Why is a scenario where Kath is a wolf and Form isn’t not an option?

Obviously it's not impossible, but Kath and Form were tied and her vote did not sound like it had much thought of self-preservation behind it. Of course, wolfKath might've just played it cool.

I don’t think consistency equals innocence

By itself, of course not. But Brinn seemed genuinely happy and surprised by being able to vote for him and it did not have a sinister ring to me.


Now regarding Legate...

Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it

She had two out of three votes cast - there was a waggon on its rails and it was ready to go. It just didn't take off.

if I go back to his reasoning before the actual vote, the original suspicion is rather random.

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.


So yeah, the Kathwaggon was there for sure, but if it was wolf-led then the person it points to is Form, no matter how little Greenie likes to hear that. :p

And Legate continues to feel off and I hope I will get a chance to take a closer look at him toDay.

[Macalaure]

So yeah, the Kathwaggon was there for sure, but if it was wolf-led then the person it points to is Form, no matter how little Greenie likes to hear that. :p

Reading my own sentence again here, I'm not making sense. If the waggon was wolf-led, it of course points to Form, he was the only one in there. :rolleyes:

*sigh*

[Rikae]

I also do not see where did Rikae's vote for Nog exactly come from. Care to elaborate? Rikae has become increasingly untransparent to me. Same goes for Pitch's vote, only he's been untransparent already before. Why Nog and not somebody else?


Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.



Reading my own sentence again here, I'm not making sense. If the waggon was wolf-led, it of course points to Form, he was the only one in there.


Eeh? Don't get me wrong, you look innocent to me, but I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.


In each case, I've voted relatively early (none of this "last fifteen minutes" cluster that Legate wrings his hands over)--but I have added to existing waggons: both of which would have saved a Known Innocent had the village followed. Granted, there's no guarantee a different Innocent might not have died, but we KNOW Known Innocents did.

So, I submit: if I am a Cobbler, am I a good one?

Really? You voted cleanly, so you're not a cobbler? I agree, though, you are not ...

[Thinlómien]

Here!

First impressions: side-eyeing Nog voters very hard. There is a very fishy reek to the whole business.

Very surprised to see BG gone because I seem to recall her thinking there was no seer in the whole game?? Did the wolves think that was a bizarre bluff? She must have been onto something then.

Now off to read and comment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I've been trying to read back on some of the people I have less read on, starting with Nilp and while I was at it, I also took a look at Mac. Since I'm doing so in-between breaks at work, it's a quest for several hours, but since it seems quiet, hopefully I'll manage to finish it before it starts to be busy again...

Nilp started the first Day by self-voting followed by Cobbler boots and talking about "if I were a Nightmare Wolf, I would..." After that, it went gradually more thoughtful and reasonable (mostly, at least whenever he got to say something non-banter-y). The second Day, he had some very reasonable points, followed by suspicion of Mac - on rather random grounds, however, basically, by way of assuming that the Wolves had to be one of Nog, me and Mac - that far I can still follow - and then concluding that it was Mac without much of a reasoning. I would like to hear more from him.

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...

EDIT: I see I'm x-ing with Mac and Rikae themselves. Let's see if I have time to read and respond now...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Mac, you might be even more annoyed to hear that you're basically the victim of a poorly-told joke.

I thought to myself, if these furballs infesting this once-peaceful village want to go after obvious Seer candidates, I'll give them one.

So I looked for the most oblique, but still somewhat defensible angle of attack against someone otherwise unsuspected. Let them think I dreamt of this villager and am trying desperately to make a case. You happened to be the one on the receiving end of it. I regret nothing, btw, except the fact that I set traps around my house last NIGHT, but no one showed up.

Why? Was I too obvious? Too oblique? Or, the most apparent reason, barking up the wrong tree? This seems the most likely explanation. So Mac, I basically take back what I said yesterDAY.

Now, I have a problem. Since I used up my supplies setting up those traps, my house is kinda unprotected toNIGHT. If I live to see tomorrow, then I'll have a more proper greeting for for any fanged home invaders, but I'm not sure if I'd last that long.

[Macalaure]

Eeh? Don't get me wrong, you look innocent to me, but I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.
I feel like I'm confusing myself right now and don't have a clear picture. I'm seeing fangs all over Legate's last post and I can't even begin to wrap my mind around Nilp right now. I feel like I need to back off a bit and get a clear fresh look in a while.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.
Fair enough, especially since I just went over the same post of Nilp's. Not sure it proves anything in the bigger picture, but fair enough.

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.
Greenie voted for someone she suspected, but she suspected Nog as well and decided against it. I'm talking about how it felt subjectively at that point, when I thought Nog was fishy and suddenly people started turning away from it. The second point is no argument for anything, the third I would argue is pure assumption, since "usually" would exactly differ from pack to pack.
Anyway, all this is purely hypothetical, since now we know Nog was innocent and nobody was saving him.

Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.
Also fair enough. It was mostly that you were listing many things in your previous post(s), and you sure voiced suspicion of him, but there was no clear "I want to vote Nogrod". But very well.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac. Okay, what? But work calls, gh.

[Formendacil]

I'm lurking from work, so this will be short, but....

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.

[Thinlómien]

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC...what? Are you the cobbler perhaps?

Re: Brinn's helpful post about BG: ok I can see why she was thought the seer now but it's still weird to me. Form looks a little dubious as a result, but I'm hesitating to jump on it because Nog was on par with him. Unless they thought BG had dreamed of Form and was just jumping into conclusions about Nog protecting him?

I would also give credit to BG fairly arbitrarily naming Shasta as the ranger - it's quite a far-fetched conclusion to make as an ordo so I would understand if the wolves thought BG had inside information. Of course, she also named Nog as the beast hunter which was NOT true, and the wolves knew that was wrong too by the time they killed her. So in conclusion, I think this kill makes Shasta look more innocent than not.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.
And if you are a wolf, your packmates may have found you worth sacrificing for this reason (and especially if you are the NW). What she said.

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.Given that I still can't follow the wolf logic on BG and I'm not the only one and here Mac goes soft defending how resonable it is... makes me suspicious of Mac. Are you offended that we think your kill pick was stupid? :p

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with. Why on earth would you give someone a pass just because two dead ordos decided to endorse her?

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

Pitch's vote was the most bandwaggony of the Nog votes and looking through his posts, I'm not clear on the reasons for his vote and why he suspected him. Mac did make a good point that it was interesting he didn't consider voting Kath considering she was one of his top suspects yesterDay.

I did mention before that Formy appeared to be more cobblerish...but based on last Night's kill, I wonder if he's in fact the NW.Agreeing with basically all of this. (Which isn't necessarily comforting? It's always creepy when someone else in ww thinks too similarly to you.) Anyway agreed that Pitch's bandwagony vote was weird. Doesn't make me think him any less of a cobbler, for one.

I would have expected something like Pitch, Kath, or Form, but Nog I thought was fairly solidly good. Hm. Makes me wonder how evil-driven that execution was. I bet the lovely sofa I'm sitting on that there was at least one wolf in the nogwagon.

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second. My thoughts EXACTLY. Also the last Night kill and him hiding behind stastics to make all his arguments feel very dubious to me.

Re: Greenie's post about Mac and Form: iiinteresting. A Mac-Form pack wouldn't really surprise me very much. I also agree with Greenie about Brinn's consistency scarcely being a point in favour (if not a point *against* her either.)

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation. Hear, hear! These accesible-for-most deadlines are lovely, but they do require a bit more coordination from the village. A thought: if you're an innocent with a strong suspicion, you should rather vote EARLIER because that's when you can affect who ends up as a chopping block contester. That's what I've been doing these two gmes mostly - alas not always with the best results. :rolleyes::D (Made me think of what Rikae said yesterDay about categorising ww players in terms of resilience, persuasiveness and perception - I'm afraid I would score fairly high on resilience and persuasiveness but not very high on perception... not really ideal except maybe for a cobbler...)

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”. That Legate remembers it so differently is very interesting, and I now feel like I should check back and see which one of us is right! Admittedly I’m not sure if that’s a very fruitful line of inquiry.My two cents is "she looked like a confused ordo and I thought the whole village agreed", which is probably why the kill baffles me.

Going to cross-post with everyone after my last...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll start speaking more openly. I don't have a read on much of you, so I'll just go with my notes for now.

Mac - Like I said, sorry mate. Until last NIGHT though, you really were a top suspect, for different, less definable reasons.
Kath - That mix-up with the voting yesterDAY makes me believe she's a confused Ordo.
Form - I had written 'trust for now', but I now feel confused.
Legate - My other top suspect. Another idea I'll claim to have come up with independently, even if many others have posted about it: this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726449#post726449) read like someone rehearsing an alibi in front of a mirror. Sorry for that analogy, but that's how I felt.
Brinn - I have 'throwaway vote was actually good' in there, but no explanation why. This has to be for DAY 1, though; her DAY 2 vote was anything but throwaway (4th--and 5th--vote for lynchee Nog)

I'm rereading the whole thread to see if I can gain new insight from anything.

[Macalaure]

Why on earth would you give someone a pass just because two dead ordos decided to endorse her?

Have you no reverence for those who passed? :eek: :p

[Thinlómien]

Have you no reverence for those who passed?No. :smokin:

Looking at yesterDay's votes, Pitch and Brinn's look the worst to me - they were the ones that cemented Nog's fate. I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move. But Pitch and Brinn were the ones that wanted Nog dead rather than Kath or Form. Perhaps Kath and Form are both innocent too, but I really hope not (or we're even more misguided than I thought).

Nilp - there are so many things that could catch a wolf pack's attention. Like BG's seer comments. Or basically any arbitrary suspicion OR trust towards someone. Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.Well, yes, of course. The only one who's completely innocent on my list of the living is me--and that's because I have no choice (had I been an Ordo I'd put myself one rung below). But Mac falls back to sixth or seventh most suspicious instead of first or second.

[Pitchwife]

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.
I hate to say it, but I totally agree with Form here. If people don't think Lottie looked seerish, I don't understand why Nilp expected anyone to think it of him. Also backing off a suspicion with "sorry, just kidding, as you were" - meh. I don't know.

[Thinlómien]

Not particularly worried about
Kath - I still think she seems more laid-back than wolf-Kath, and her not being too worried about her own life yesterDay (adding a new lynch candidate when she herself was on the lead) adds to the impression.
Nilp - the Boro of this game, but innocent version?
Shasta - I keep flipflopping about him but I think BG's death is a big point in favour of his innocence.

Hmmmm
Greenie and Legate - I find myself agreeing with both of them a lot, which makes me inclined to trust them, even though I'm not sure that's smart. I don't know what to think of either of their relation to Kath - both Greenie's strong suspicion that I don't necessarily agree with and Legate's defensiveness of Kath stand out to me as midlly weird.
Sally - mostly under my radar, but the generic vibe isn't too innocent.

Double hmmmmm
Mac - has started rubbing me the wrong way since his vote yesterDay. I don't really like anything he's said about yesterDay's lynch or last Night's kill.
Form - keeps getting not-lynched, hides behind statistics instead of expressing solid opinions, and was suspected by BG. Dodgy.
Pitchwife - continues to give cobbler vibes with his pseudo helpful posting and that Nog vote.
Rikae - got an innocent vibe on Day1, but since then they haven't done anything which I'd find reassuring. The nonchalance with which they started the nogwagon and (even if it's a reference to the last game) their glee about Brinn getting endorsed and therefore ordo!Nog getting lynched doesn't sit right with me. Like, they don't seem the least bit bummed that we lynched an ordo again.


edit: xed with Nilp and the cobbler

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.

[Formendacil]

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.

Egads! Still supposed to be working here!

I want to believe, and if no other Beast Hunter appears, I guess I default to believing. I like the timing of a reveal, because the Village NEEDS something to shake up soon, just from a numbers standpoint, so that helps me trust (because the status quo has looked pretty good for the Wolves). But... still, a crazy reveal is the most Nilp thing ever.

[Brinniel]

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now? You aren't in any immediate danger of getting lynched right now and it seems more beneficial for the Beast Hunter to stay hidden. After all, it could be quite the useful role but it doesn't do much good if the wolves kill you first (well, at least we still have our ranger).

So I am trying to decide if Nilp is telling the truth, or if he's a cobbler or wolf trying to out the real Beast Hunter..

[Brinniel]

I want to believe, and if no other Beast Hunter appears, I guess I default to believing. I like the timing of a reveal, because the Village NEEDS something to shake up soon, just from a numbers standpoint, so that helps me trust (because the status quo has looked pretty good for the Wolves). But... still, a crazy reveal is the most Nilp thing ever.
If it's a false reveal, maybe the real Beast Hunter should stay quiet at least for now. Otherwise they would be falling into his trap.

I will give Nilp the benefit of the doubt for the time being, but I'm not completely convinced.

I also don't like Formy's reaction here.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now>
I thought of doing this tomorrow, but a numbers post I was planning to write drove home the point that DAY 4 might be too late.
8 villagers to 4 wolves now
If we fail to lynch a wolf now, and I or the ranger fail tomorrow, we go in with 6 to 4, and with a possible cobbler...

Even if we whittle down their numbers, a seer death would be disastrous. Having me as an obvious target might give them pause. If they ignore me and go for the Seer, well... I can still set my traps at NIGHT.
I'm the, ah, least useful Gifted. Or at least, my usefulness has a well-defined limit.

[Pitchwife]

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now? You aren't in any immediate danger of getting lynched right now and it seems more beneficial for the Beast Hunter to stay hidden. After all, it could be quite the useful role but it doesn't do much good if the wolves kill you first (well, at least we still have our ranger).
At first sight it looks like a more complicated way of suicide, but it's actually quite brilliant. The wolves can't know whether he single-, double- or triple-bluffed about last Night, so in the worst case he'd be dead toMorrow, in the best case they'd have to use two Night kills on him to make sure, sacrificing one of their own in the process, and can't go after anybody else in the meantime.


If he's a fake-revealing wolf, on the other hand, he has a perfect explanation for his continued survival by claiming the wolves were reluctant to take the risk.

[Pitchwife]

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay

Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.
makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.

[Rikae]

Rikae - got an innocent vibe on Day1, but since then they haven't done anything which I'd find reassuring. The nonchalance with which they started the nogwagon and (even if it's a reference to the last game) their glee about Brinn getting endorsed and therefore ordo!Nog getting lynched doesn't sit right with me. Like, they don't seem the least bit bummed that we lynched an ordo again.


Or maybe I'm pleased the seer is still alive?

[Kath]

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.
Ok, so what's your plan? Why are you revealing?

[Macalaure]

- could be the true beast hunter, except: why is he giving away which day he's protecting himself? It might be a trap for the wolves, but he would also be laying a trap for the ranger, who may be compelled to protect him in his off-nights. Then again, one way or another, their next kill will either be wasted or Nilp takes one down with him.

- could be the cobbler. Then again, the seer thing could have killed him if I actually had been a wolf, and making the wolves kill you is a terrible way to go for a cobbler.

- could be the night wolf stirring things up before going down, kind of what I said a while ago.

But I don't see any reason to not believe him at this point, actually. The only thing wolfNilp would gain is that he gets to stay alive for a while, since for the village, not voting for him is the only actual adjustment, and there'd still be 3 other wolves available for lynching. If he's bluffing, we'll get to him eventually.

[A Little Green]

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again today so I won't be able to be around as much as I'd like for the rest of the Day. I wanted to read through Pitch and Lommy but that will have to wait :( Just quickly for now -

At first sight it looks like a more complicated way of suicide, but it's actually quite brilliant. The wolves can't know whether he single-, double- or triple-bluffed about last Night, so in the worst case he'd be dead toMorrow, in the best case they'd have to use two Night kills on him to make sure, sacrificing one of their own in the process, and can't go after anybody else in the meantime.

If he's a fake-revealing wolf, on the other hand, he has a perfect explanation for his continued survival by claiming the wolves were reluctant to take the risk.I agree with the first scenario. The second would be an odd move from a Nilpwolf who isn't really under fire at the moment anyway. Like, what would be the point - revealing himself in order to try and out the actual Beast Hunter and, if successful, just end up with the first scenario? I'm good believing Nilp for now. If he's bluffing we'll know soon enough.

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay
Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.
makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.
This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?

There was a bunch of stuff from earlier on that I wanted to comment on, I'll try to get back to it soon!

[Boromir88]

Wanted to let everyone know I’m typing this from my phone because I just lost power in my neighborhood. Not sure when it will come back (hopefully soon because it’s 95 degrees today and means my AC is out now too :-/).

I’ll be able to use data and get on my phone to close down the day. And at least try to reveal the role of whoever’s lynched in a timely manner. If you don’t hear from me by 9pm GMT with an update on my power situation that’s the plan.

Or perhaps someone in the Dead thread can kindly close it down? :-(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. May start the voting early just for fun. Maybe. :p

[Macalaure]

Leaning good about:
Greenie - not seeing anything suspicious really, but my gut feeling doesn't agree
Brinn - feels innocent to me
Kath - I'm a bit back-and-forth with her, but good for now
Nilp - might be leading us astray big time, but if so, it will show eventually
Lommy - always looks innocent to me no matter her role, so I'm not putting too much stock in my feeling here

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him
Sally - hasn't done anything to be suspicious, but hasn't done anything to be not suspicious either.
Rikae - huge question mark
Shasta - still doesn't feel right, but I can't put my finger on it

Leaning bad about:
Form - not-so-great votes both days, puts too much into the posts vs. mentions thing
Pitch - not-so-great votes both days, I felt better about him yesterday, not so much today.


This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?I had about the same thing typed out when I saw this.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, well the one thing for sure is that if there is an actual BH, they should not reveal.

Otherwise... well, if Nilp is innocent, then at least this gives us is something toDay... and then depending on what happens after. Many possibilities...
I would at least hazard a guess that if nothing else, he's not the NW, because now he would be unlikely to die unless there was a counterclaim. So if he was a NW faking it, it would be probably more benefitial to say that he was something else. Even though, BH might be the best role to fake for a Wolf, actually, because unlike the others, he could make a believable case for why he wasn't Night-killed. But that again rules out the NW. Okay, but now I'm just rambling.

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.

But all that being said, even if Nilp is a Wolf, I think the best course of events is to trust his claim now. If he gets killed, then it hopefully also kills one Wolf. If he is a Wolf and keeps staying alive up to the point when we are down to some very small village, then a real BH could always reveal.

Nilp - any other insights or comments you'd like to share, while you're at it? People, opinions, stuff?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Reading through the thread, I'm at... page 3. The painkillers might be numbing the effects of the caffeine as well. One thing that went into my decision matrix to reveal now is that I don't want to accidentally fall asleep and wake up lynched--because then you're definitely entering DAY 4 with all four lycans still alive.

I'll eat something and see if that shakes off the lethargy I'm feeling. If not, I'd probably have to vote early.

(Legate, sorry, but so far, you're it.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Can't decide how I feel about Mac. My thoughts on him are all through the lens of how he seems to be perceiving me, and it feels like he's just leaving himself room to have me as "someone he suspects", which is a very wolvish thing to do, but it's also possible I'm just biased.

[Kath]

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...
Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)
I was reading through yesterDay and this caught my eye. I agree with Lommy that choosing to abstain is about the most unhelpful thing for an innocent to do. I didn't really see the suspicion of Form yesterDay but this makes a lot more sense of that. He then goes on to say it would only be effective if the whole village chose to do it. I'm assuming he meant because then nobody at all would die so no Innocents could be lost, but of course it also means zero chance of catching a wolf, given they can only be lynched in the Day. So yeah, I can see where the uneasiness comes from.

[Pitchwife]

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again
Heile heile segen...


While I mull over the Nilp situation, a thought about the Night kill. In her seer-hinting post, BG listed Formy and Nog as the most likely wolves, followed by Legate on third rank. We now know that Nog was innocent, and we don't know yet what Formy is, but it's startling that the first two Night kills were possibly seerish looking people who suspected Legate.



Speaking of Nog, I should address this:
Looking at yesterDay's votes, Pitch and Brinn's look the worst to me - they were the ones that cemented Nog's fate. I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move. But Pitch and Brinn were the ones that wanted Nog dead rather than Kath or Form. Perhaps Kath and Form are both innocent too, but I really hope not (or we're even more misguided than I thought).
You agree with whoever that Rikae and Legate didn't expect Nog to gain further votes and in the same breath call him 'widely suspected'. Where is the logic in this, Doctor?[/SPOCK]
As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.

[Macalaure]

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.I think it was actually a pretty good trap. Accuse somebody in a seerish way, and if you're right, have the wolves come for you and take one down. Bonus points if the wolf that goes down with you isn't the one you accused, since the accused one would sure be toast the next day.

And Shasta, I can't decide how I feel about you either. And you're not the only one, unfortunately.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As per usual, I have one person I don't want to execute (Greenie) and I'm okay...

Hmm.

More specific.

Form and Kath are probably my top two choices for execution; Form is my own pick because of the traction thing, while Kath is more a groupthink thing. But there are several others that bother me; Greenie had points about Lommy and Legate that I liked, Mac bothers me for reasons I stated already, and I still feel weird about Brinn's use of the word "risky" D1, even if I can't really articulate why that is.

I don't have that immediate flash of goodness that I got from Rikae last time, either, which probably means we should kill them on general principle. :p

Still in Pitchcobblerland, and haven't even looked at Sally really. Nilp I recall thinking was trending good, shallowly.

If I forgot anyone, I might just vote them on principle for that. :p

[Kath]

Reading through the thread, I'm at... page 3. The painkillers might be numbing the effects of the caffeine as well. One thing that went into my decision matrix to reveal now is that I don't want to accidentally fall asleep and wake up lynched--because then you're definitely entering DAY 4 with all four lycans still alive.

I'll eat something and see if that shakes off the lethargy I'm feeling. If not, I'd probably have to vote early.

(Legate, sorry, but so far, you're it.)
So your plan was literally just to avoid the lynch?

From the rules so I can get a handle on this:
Beast Hunter (1)- The BH sets a booby trap near 1 person's location each night in hopes that the trap will catch and kill a werewolf. The BH may put the trap near themself, but can not set it near themself or the same person 2 nights in a row. If victim of the NW's haunting, the BH receives a PM stating they were frozen by a horrible nightmare and could not set their booby trap that night.

Ok, so revealing before there is a NW is sensible, but revealing at all surely isn't? I can't see that Nilp was that close to being lynched toDay to then basically end up as a non-killable player. Because surely now the wolves won't go for him and so we have a useless Hunter. It's an annoyingly perfect hiding place for a wolf, too.

My instinct is always to believe Gifted reveals because what-if but I don't like it.

[Kath]

Oh no I misread it! The trap can be set in front of other people, too! Well ok then assuming Nilp is telling the truth, which I'm now much happier about, this all makes a lot more sense and will be a marvellously dangerous game of Beast Hunter roulette for the wolves.

[Boromir88]

Just as I went to pass the time by laying down with a book to read...power kicked back on.

I suppose the world is telling me this is where I need to be and read. So here’s to another eventful final 2 hours.

[Rikae]

So, let's just envision a scenario where Form is a wolf and Brinn and Mac are innocent, shall we?

Who are Form's packmates? I have a feeling he's the NW and deliberately living dangerously, so I'm not ruling out some intense wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie- Added another name (Pitch) Day 1 when Form was in the lead with two votes (vs Nilp and Hui with one)
Kath - Put Hui firmly in the lead Day 1 with 4 votes, when Form & Nilp had 2. Form suggests she's a packmate of Pitch in #213.
Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.
Nilp - I'm going to provisionally accept his reveal.
Pitch - Did some silly/bantery cobbler accusation of Form day 1, then ... conspicuously ignores him?
sally - Random looking bantery accusation of Form in her first post, then also, unless I'm missing something, ignores him?
Shasta- Form suggested he was gifted on Day 2. Obviously if he really thought so he could have said it at night. A "slip" to make Shasta look more innocent?
Put Form in the lead day 2 without comment, ahead of Nog (momentarily)
Lommy - Voted for Nilp day 1 tying him with Form, called Form her other main suspect, "Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand"" To me this looks somewhat wolfy
Day 2: Pushed Form into a tie with Kath with his 2nd vote

Pitch, Sally, Lommy and Greenie are looking worth looking at, to me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Rikae - don't think that's quite true regarding my vote, on account of Mac saying it didn't matter (honestly, that particular wording struck me as performatively dismissive, which is why I remember him saying it.)

[Rikae]

Rikae - don't think that's quite true regarding my vote, on account of Mac saying it didn't matter (honestly, that particular wording struck me as performatively dismissive, which is why I remember him saying it.)

That it put Form in the lead or "without comment"?

[satansaloser2005]

I happen to be oddly busy today, so sorry for the lack of chattiness. I'll still be around to vote, and I have a break coming up, so I'll catch up when I can. :)

[Thinlómien]

I'm inclined to believe Nilp, for now.

Rikae - got an innocent vibe on Day1, but since then they haven't done anything which I'd find reassuring. The nonchalance with which they started the nogwagon and (even if it's a reference to the last game) their glee about Brinn getting endorsed and therefore ordo!Nog getting lynched doesn't sit right with me. Like, they don't seem the least bit bummed that we lynched an ordo again.Or maybe I'm pleased the seer is still alive? How's that related to Hui and Lottie empowering Brinn?

You know guys, Nilp is right. The numbers are getting dire. Anyone too cheerful toDay... is likely not too worried about the fact that we haven't caught a wolf yet. Our seer has had two dreams. We can't expect them to win the game for us.

You agree with whoever that Rikae and Legate didn't expect Nog to gain further votes and in the same breath call him 'widely suspected'. Where is the logic in this, Doctor?Touché. Let's put it this way: if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath/Form, surely it would have been easier to jump on the other than introduce Nog. Nog was widely suspected, but at the same time, a lot of people were having second thoughts about their suspicions of him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That it put Form in the lead or "without comment"?

That it put Form in the lead. It tied him with Nog, but wouldn't Nog still have died due to tiebreaker? That's the impression I got from Mac.

[Pitchwife]

Pitch - Did some silly/bantery cobbler accusation of Form day 1, then ... conspicuously ignores him?
Did you read any of my posts from yesterDay at all? I mean, I questioned him quite a few times, so how you can write this without deliberately ignoring evidence eludes me. *ping*

[satansaloser2005]

So, let's just envision a scenario where Form is a wolf and Brinn and Mac are innocent, shall we?

Who are Form's packmates? I have a feeling he's the NW and deliberately living dangerously, so I'm not ruling out some intense wolf-on-wolf.


sally - Random looking bantery accusation of Form in her first post, then also, unless I'm missing something, ignores him?


Do you mean that Day or the entire game? Because I think I've made it consistently clear I suspect Form of cobblery at the very least.


Just saw this and wanted to get the clarification while I was thinking about it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm inclined to believe Nilp, for now.

How's that related to Hui and Lottie empowering Brinn?

You know guys, Nilp is right. The numbers are getting dire. Anyone too cheerful toDay... is likely not too worried about the fact that we haven't caught a wolf yet. Our seer has had two dreams. We can't expect them to win the game for us.

Touché. Let's put it this way: if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath/Form, surely it would have been easier to jump on the other than introduce Nog. Nog was widely suspected, but at the same time, a lot of people were having second thoughts about their suspicions of him.

I'd be hesitant to jump on something like "cheerfulness", but that second is a good thought - if literally all four of them are evil together. It's possible. Is that where you're leaning, Lommy?

[Kath]

Form, because I said yesterDay that I'd look at him when I had time.

About Lottie - notes an absence that wasn't actually there. His spreadsheet failing him here. Could be a wolf who thought he noticed that at Night using it in the Day.

Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became.

If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin.
So the message here is: Voting for me made more sense than voting for Hui even though I'm innocent and I didn't know his role at the time. But therefore a wolf voted to lynch Hui. I'm not following this ...

My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.
Ah and there's the quote that I missed yesterDay and then Shasta pointed out and which I definitely don't like. He says this about both Shasta and Nog.

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.
If I'm assuming his innocence, then Form thought Nog or Shasta was the Hunter, and therefore pointing them out to the wolves wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. If I'm assuming Form's guilt, this is not a good quote.

Anyway, because I have difficulty admitting I can be wrong, I won't. Instead, I'll say I like Kath having a vote, and it's getting to be suppertime, so... alea iacta est.
I'm intrigued as to why I got the vote when he'd earlier said Pitch was his top suspect.

Well, all in all, I can't say I'm finding Form very innocent looking at this point.

[Rikae]

I'm inclined to believe Nilp, for now.

How's that related to Hui and Lottie empowering Brinn?


Nothing, just explains my general cheerfulness.

The Brinn thing was a fun joke after the antics in the dead thread last game.

[Thinlómien]

I'd be hesitant to jump on something like "cheerfulness", but that second is a good thought - if literally all four of them are evil together. It's possible. Is that where you're leaning, Lommy?I still think it's weird that you start a bandwagon that eventually lynched an ordo (when we have lynched no wolves yet) and when you post the next time you're not sorry/bummed at all but instead think it was hilarious that it happened? Like, regardless of how funny the dead empowering Brinn was (I don't think it was so funny but I was never big on humour anyway :p), wouldn't you at least have mixed feelings about it if it contributed to an ordo lynch? Especially if you yourself contributed too? That's why Rikae gives me the vibe that they don't really care too much about the wellbeing of the village.

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.


edit: xed with Rik and Kath

[Rikae]

Interesting.

Do you mean that Day or the entire game? Because I think I've made it consistently clear I suspect Form of cobblery at the very least.


Just saw this and wanted to get the clarification while I was thinking about it.

A suspicion of cobblery is kind of protective, in effect.

That it put Form in the lead. It tied him with Nog, but wouldn't Nog still have died due to tiebreaker? That's the impression I got from Mac.
Okay, fair enough. That actually works out to making your vote safer, though ... ?

Did you read any of my posts from yesterDay at all? I mean, I questioned him quite a few times, so how you can write this without deliberately ignoring evidence eludes me. *ping*

Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?

[Brinniel]

Our seer has had two dreams. We can't expect them to win the game for us.
Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

I find it frustrating that I'm having trouble reading many players. Formy and Pitch stick out as most suspicious. I lean towards Formy, however, if he's the NW as I suspect, then if we lynch him, he can prevent Nilp (assuming he's telling the truth) from setting a trap. But then again, a NW is always better than a non-wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I still think it's weird that you start a bandwagon that eventually lynched an ordo (when we have lynched no wolves yet) and when you post the next time you're not sorry/bummed at all but instead think it was hilarious that it happened? Like, regardless of how funny the dead empowering Brinn was (I don't think it was so funny but I was never big on humour anyway :p), wouldn't you at least have mixed feelings about it if it contributed to an ordo lynch? Especially if you yourself contributed too? That's why Rikae gives me the vibe that they don't really care too much about the wellbeing of the village.

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.


edit: xed with Rik and Kath

That seems to be the point of your post, though - if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath or Form, they'd have jumped on the other - but they didn't, they went for Nog. So they didn't want to save just one of them - they wanted to save them both. Which would make them all evil together. Right?

[Kath]

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

I find it frustrating that I'm having trouble reading many players. Formy and Pitch stick out as most suspicious. I lean towards Formy, however, if he's the NW as I suspect, then if we lynch him, he can prevent Nilp (assuming he's telling the truth) from setting a trap. But then again, a NW is always better than a non-wolf.
That is an interesting point about the NW and the Beast Hunter but I also agree that it doesn't mean lynching the NW isn't still a good idea. Ideally it would be great if they were the final wolf down, but any dead wolf is a good thing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Interesting.



A suspicion of cobblery is kind of protective, in effect.


Okay, fair enough. That actually works out to making your vote safer, though ... ?



Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?

It might, though I didn't have time to see if I'd be crossing with anyone or not - just barely saw the last tally and went "no!" in my brain. But didn't want you working off something mechanically wrong.

[Pitchwife]

Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?
I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

if we lynch him, he can prevent Nilp (assuming he's telling the truth) from setting a trap. But then again, a NW is always better than a non-wolf.I'm willing to be trapless for a NIGHT. The narration will make it clear if he's the NW anyway, and the Ranger could act accordingly.

[Rikae]

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.


Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.


Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Actually, being trapless and protected would be better because then you'd actually believe me. :D

[Rikae]

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

Someone who would like some leads before the end of the day.

[Boromir88]

Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

Correct. Seer has had 3 dreams so far.

[A Little Green]

Quotes I picked out earlier, in no particular order -
You agree with whoever that Rikae and Legate didn't expect Nog to gain further votes and in the same breath call him 'widely suspected'. Where is the logic in this, Doctor?[/SPOCK]
As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.
I’m flip-flopping like a madwoman here trying to decide if this sounds like an innocent explaining a late night thought process or a bad guy wriggling. I’d be leaning towards the former if it wasn’t for that last sentence. It makes it sound like he even considered voting someone he didn’t have an impression on rather than either of his top suspects because they were suspecting each other. This is weird, though it’s also possible I’m reading him wrong here.

Not particularly worried about
Kath - I still think she seems more laid-back than wolf-Kath, and her not being too worried about her own life yesterDay (adding a new lynch candidate when she herself was on the lead) adds to the impression.
Fair point, but more than half the village were still left to vote at that point so she could have figured the situation was likely to change. Also she didn’t actually add a new lynch candidate, Nilp already had one vote so she tied him with herself and Form. Admittedly she could have voted Form, too, but this would have looked pretty fishy for her the next Day if she hadn’t suspected Form previously (I don’t actually remember if she did). I’m trying to just type quick answers so I can get off the computer asap, and my argumentation is seriously deteriorating from not being able to go back and check things!

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
I’m not sure why not – if anything, wolves can sometimes be more clear and assured and consistent than ordos, given that they know basically everyone’s alignment already.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote.
This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense.I wish. That would have been epic. :smokin: As for the comment about last minute voting, I admit I've been frustrated with it in this game and might have gone on a bit of a tirade there :D But I do think it's a legitimate concern - I mean, yesterDay all but one vote came within the last hour, all but two in the last half an hour, and more than half the village voted in the last 9 minutes - including the entire bandwagon that got innocent Nog lynched.

I still think it's weird that you start a bandwagon that eventually lynched an ordo (when we have lynched no wolves yet) and when you post the next time you're not sorry/bummed at all but instead think it was hilarious that it happened? Like, regardless of how funny the dead empowering Brinn was (I don't think it was so funny but I was never big on humour anyway ), wouldn't you at least have mixed feelings about it if it contributed to an ordo lynch? Especially if you yourself contributed too? That's why Rikae gives me the vibe that they don't really care too much about the wellbeing of the village.
Not sure if this holds water. First-post-of-the-Day comments on what happened at the end of the Day before (the lynch, the Medium) are not knee-jerk reactions. People’s actual reactions to the events, whether it’s feeling gleeful or bummed, happen behind their screens, 24 hours before they write those posts the next Day. So you might feel really bummed about the lynch, but 24 hours later not feel compelled to say you feel bummed about the lynch. (Personally I almost never do, whatever my role – I just don’t see the point. That doesn’t mean I don’t feel bummed when we lynch an innocent.) What I’m trying to say is, I’d be wary of reading too much into that kind of thing since I think it indicates personality/posting style more than alignment.

Finally, I like that Rikae and Shasta are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them). Lommy is still worrying me, and Mac is still a headache. I’m voting soon and unless someone gives me a better argument in the next fifteen minutes it’s going to be for either Kath or Legate.

[Kath]

I've got to go now. I would have liked to look at Greenie in more detail but I'm loathe to poke at someone who I know can't really be around today.

So, given the Form-alysis made me not very happy with him:
++FORM

Nilp, I'm going with believing you, but I would like to ask why Legate is your planned vote? Sorry if you've already answered and I missed it.

[Rikae]

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp, I'm going with believing you, but I would like to ask why Legate is your planned vote? Sorry if you've already answered and I missed it.Nog's Lottie question (if voting for Legate was what got her mistaken for a Seer) and from here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726710&postcount=376):
Legate - My other top suspect. Another idea I'll claim to have come up with independently, even if many others have posted about it: this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726449#post726449) read like someone rehearsing an alibi in front of a mirror. Sorry for that analogy, but that's how I felt.
My reading of DAY 1 (still at page 4) has added nothing significant to my notes so far.

[satansaloser2005]

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

I forgot that was a thing, so thank you for the reminder.


I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.


Also, I'm talking on the phone as I'm typing this post, so I hope it makes sense.


x'd with my beloved Nilp

[Pitchwife]

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.
Oh for crying out loud, you do realise that this was in answer to him basically saying "Yeah, well, but what does it matter, I was only speculating?" and I tried to explain how & why it does matter? How is that 'cleaning up a mess' rather than explaining why the mess is a mess in the first place?
If you're saying I should have given more weight to this when deciding my vote, that's a valid criticism. But that's it.

[Brinniel]

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.
But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?
The way I'm thinking, we can ask, if X is an innocent, empower Y. Or if M is a wolf, empower N.

[Macalaure]

Well, I was going to take a close look at Legate, but I guess Shasta wants to go first. :p

He posted a lot, and since it's difficult to summarize one-liners, I'm sticking to what he said about others.

On Day 1 he

says Pitch looks like the cobbler since he looked like hinting it at the wolves
says he likes a post of Legate, but still thinks it might've been wolfish
says that posts of Form and Hui look strange, and does that again for Hui a while later, and then suggests he's the NW since he thinks Hui is trying to get lynched.
says he's unsure about Kath due to difference in opinion on NW tactic
starts to suspect Brinn because of "risky"
and then he votes for Hui

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

What he says makes sense to me, though I'd disagree on the Brinn thing. The reason for his vote still doesn't sit right with me, but I don't want to open that can of worms again.


Day 2 he

noted that Form does not get the same scrutiny for discussing gifteds as others did.
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
complains to me about misrepresenting his vote

I was honestly a bit surprised to see the Huin-wagon happen

Yet the day before he says that Hui is actually trying to get lynched. Even if he felt like at the time of his vote the risk of a waggon had become less, it was very apparently still there. This one does not sit right with me.

votes for Form right at the deadline


ToDay he

is surprised that the village went for Nog and lists Pitch, Kath, or Form as more likely.
suspects wolves among Nog's voters (something he didn't point out after Hui's death)
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
thinks Form not dying makes him more suspicious and he thinks he keeps getting saved*
can't make his mind up about me since I can't make up my mind about him
doesn't want to lynch Greenie
still has Form and Kath atop his list
also is unhappy with Lommy, Legate, and me
doesn't get good vibes from Rikae
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
doesn't know about Sally
feels better about Nilp

I also keep being mentioned in posts between him and Rikae and I'm confused about what's going on there.

Again, I can't really find any fault with the points he raises, except for where I mention it above. And while I don't even necessarily disagree, the fact that he repeats again and again that Pitch is the cobbler feels weird. There's also a touchiness to him, but maybe that's just me.

In conclusion, I'm not super suspicious of him, but I'm not at ease either. So essentially he stays in the middle, and he's just gonna have to live with that. :p


*Shasta is not the only one I remember saying things to that effect, and for all of my own suspicion of Form, I'm really not sure how valid that is.

[Rikae]

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

Correctly, as in voting for a wolf ideally, but at least not voting for a (dead thread known) innocent.

[A Little Green]

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word :p) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Kath > Form
Greenie > Legate

1 hour to go.

Edit: Crossed with Greenie.

[Rikae]

++Form

And incidentally, of those I listed as packmate-ish, I think that knowing Pitch's role would give us the most leads.

[Formendacil]

I am caught up and ought to be posting, but I'll admit to being someqhat afraid to open my mouth, because nothing comes out but shoes and howls, it seems. Great cover if I play again soon enough and as a Wolf, but in the here-and-this thread, that's not so helpful. While I actually relish the idea of participating in a Dead Thread for what would effectively be the first time, I'd rather WIN and the village is more likely to do that if I'm not the fifth Ordo in a row to die.

I'm lukewarm on Nilp voting for Legate, but I'm willimg to fall in line and vote for a possible-Known Innocent's plan than keep stumbling around in the dark. And Legate WAS suspicious to Nog, for whatever that's worth.

Myself, I'd still like to see Kath or Pitch on the ballot, and there is a general swirl of talk about both of them, but I don't think the village has any sort of consensus building other than "Form looks bad."

[Macalaure]

Rikae is up to something but I'll be darned if I know what it is.

If the seer dies we could either +- again or set up a plan like what Nilp suggests. Maybe we should discuss that when it happens and not 1 hour before deadline though.

[Formendacil]

++Form

And incidentally, of those I listed as packmate-ish, I think that knowing Pitch's role would give us the most leads.

Well, in naked self-interest, I am definitely voting ++Legate of Amon Lanc now.

[satansaloser2005]

++Form

[Macalaure]

I can definitely live with a Form lynching, though I'd prefer Pitch. I'd rather have Legate stay alive for at least one more day.

I'm tempted to vote for Pitch and start a third waggon, but I fear that if Pitch and Form are both wolves, it may split the innocent vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Form

And with that I'm off to work. Choose wisely.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm back to the drawing board, finished reading through Rikae's posts on previous Days, plus looked at the votes again. I would still like to do a read-through of Pitch and Greenie, but I am slowly running out of mental capacity toDay it seems to me.

Quick list and then going to vote:

Green zone:
Lommy - I have seen nothing that would make me feel bad about her, even though I admit I have sort of grown accustomed to trusting my gut feeling with her. Usually, Days 3 to 4 are the ones when I become scatterbrained and start seeing ghosts everywhere because my initial beliefs (in this case, Nog, BG) turn out not to work. I will try to resist this and if I am alive toMorrow, do a read-through of her posts alongside with others.

Brinniel - she has been pursuing her suspects very clearly, the same on Day 2. Overall I think her reasoning made sense.

Yellow zone:
Greenie - I want to re-read, but not toDay!
Kath - her posts overall feel rather good than bad. Her vote on Day 1 was potentially Wolfy, but much of it depends on Form's role.
Pitch - keep flip-flopping about him, also need a re-read.
Rikae - after rereading their posts, nothing that would stand out, and I don't feel like I can start delving into this at this hour.
Shasta - I am the most on the verge about him, since he seems to appear, say that he could vote anyone and he often also ends up doing so - not much can be deduced on voting alone. Not sure if I'd feel up to voting him based on that though.

Red zone:
sally - I still think her posts are present without not saying much. Same with her vote.
Mac - I am chiefly unhappy about his "off the mainstream"-voting, otherwise see above.
Form - I am still leaning towards the direction that he's a Cobbler, NW is also a possibility however.

EDIT: x-ed with some.

[Thinlómien]

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.Oops, I somehow temporarily forgot it's Day3 already. :rolleyes::D (In my defense, days when you sleep 6h and work 9h should be banned. That's an unhealhty ratio.)

That seems to be the point of your post, though - if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath or Form, they'd have jumped on the other - but they didn't, they went for Nog. So they didn't want to save just one of them - they wanted to save them both. Which would make them all evil together. Right? Agreed on principle. But that would require a) coordination, b) willingness to stick their necks out a little. Plus, there isn't a reason why they couldn't have acted the same way if innocent. So until we know at least 1/4 of their identity, it's all guesswork. (And side note, I'm always sceptical of theories that pin down the whole wolf pack a once. I mean, it would be amazing, but I've yet to see one that was correct. Especially on a Day3 with no proven wolves around.)

Fair point, but more than half the village were still left to vote at that point so she could have figured the situation was likely to change. Also she didn’t actually add a new lynch candidate, Nilp already had one vote so she tied him with herself and Form. Admittedly she could have voted Form, too, but this would have looked pretty fishy for her the next Day if she hadn’t suspected Form previously (I don’t actually remember if she did).Hm, maybe I better take one more look at that vote tally.

Not sure if this holds water. First-post-of-the-Day comments on what happened at the end of the Day before (the lynch, the Medium) are not knee-jerk reactions. People’s actual reactions to the events, whether it’s feeling gleeful or bummed, happen behind their screens, 24 hours before they write those posts the next Day. So you might feel really bummed about the lynch, but 24 hours later not feel compelled to say you feel bummed about the lynch. (Personally I almost never do, whatever my role – I just don’t see the point. That doesn’t mean I don’t feel bummed when we lynch an innocent.) What I’m trying to say is, I’d be wary of reading too much into that kind of thing since I think it indicates personality/posting style more than alignment.I feel like my answer to this boils to a bit "yes, BUT". Rikae's glee at Hui and Lottie's choice wasn't an instant reaction either. But clearly it was the one first on their mind. I still think that's a more likely priority for a wolf/cobbler than for an innocent. Of course, I'm not saying it PROVES anything, but it caught my eye.

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent? Solid, even though it still leaves no way to communicate a wolf dream (more important). But umm, let's discuss this when it's relevant and not shortly before the deadline on a Day when it's not relevant yet?

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

(I'm open to other options at least in theory, but. *shrug*)

[Thinlómien]

++Form

No reason to keep sitting on it, I guess.

[Brinniel]

general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.
I think this is a good point. I mentioned before that I like the content of Legate's posts (regarding suspicions and such), however he also seems quieter and more reserved than normal. I still don't think the wolves killed Lottie suspecting she was a seer who dreamed of Legate because Hui seems like the more likely dream were she the seer. However, a wolf pack that includes Legate could've killed her for the latter reason even knowing that it could implicate Legate.

That is not enough reason for me to want to vote Legate toDay, but maybe I need to look at him toMorrow (again).

At this point, I will either vote Formy or Pitch.

[Macalaure]

++Formendacil

Seems that's what the cool kids are doing these days.

[Boromir88]

A quick tally...

Kath > Form
Greenie > Legate
Rikae > Form (2)
Form > Legate (2)
Sally > Form (3)
Shasta > Form (4)
Lommy > Form (5)
Macalaure > Form (6)



A little less chaotic than yesterday, but so much more suspense. :D

35 minutes to go.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm... I do not feel at my brightest at the very moment, but I certainly would not like my last gift to this village be again cluelessness gained from the lynch of an innocent. I will most likely vote Form - and his death, in any case, should shed light on others.

EDIT: x-ed with multiple

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well then.

++Form

I think it's high time we got it right.

[Brinniel]

Is everybody voting for Formy? That's great if he's a wolf, however, I'm afraid toDay's voting tally won't tell us much come toMorrow whatever his role may be.

[Pitchwife]

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.



And I notice he's collecting votes. Now if they're innocent (or at least some of them) that's all the better, but there's also a chance the pack is finally getting ready to bus him, to which I say: let them!


(I was going to post '+-Formendacil, unless something dramatic happens, but you know, I might as well)


++Formendacil

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Seven of twelve votes, so no overhauling this result anyway.

++Formendacil

Crossed with Pitch's eighth vote.

[Brinniel]

Well, not that it makes much difference at this point:

++Formy

X-ed with the last two posts

[Boromir88]

The positive is. We'll I'll have the narration and reveal done right at the DL.

The bad is, Form your fate is sealed.

The dead have chosen a medium today too. So, stay tuned in 25 minutes :p

[Thinlómien]

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.I was hesitant about Shasta trying to push me to commit to that theory, now Pitch is presenting the very same combo as if it hadn't been discussed before. What's up, dudes? Is one of you perhaps... making shoes for a living? Why are you so into a conspiracy theory that's... basically that, a conspiracy theory. How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?

[Macalaure]

How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?

12 villagers, 4 wolves, 1/495 chance. Not quite as bad as playing the lottery.

[Pitchwife]

I was hesitant about Shasta trying to push me to commit to that theory, now Pitch is presenting the very same combo as if it hadn't been discussed before. What's up, dudes? Is one of you perhaps... making shoes for a living?[my bolding]
Now I want to make a song parody based on this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TnR_S25yLY).

Why are you so into a conspiracy theory that's... basically that, a conspiracy theory. How likely is it really to nail the whole wolf pack with one guess?
Not very, of course. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more than one wolf in there.

[Thinlómien]

[my bolding]
Now I want to make a song parody based on this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TnR_S25yLY).


Not very, of course. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more than one wolf in there.Fair enough. That sentiment I can agree on, but "the wolf pack is Rikae+Legate+Form+Kath" is a bit too much of a leap of faith for me.

PS. Listening to that song at 0.45am feels like a psychedelic trip for my tired brain. :D

[Rikae]

I really hope folks have been paying attention from the beginning, and glean something useful from it about the characters in the play, and fish-leather jackets and coyote-skin coats and radical visionaries and all the other magical things in the happy land of Mirkwood. :Merisu:

(Do you realize 2/3 of us have special roles?)

[Formendacil]

The Last Will and Testament of Formendacil, Late of Village CXV

The soon-to-be-deceased bequeaths to the surviving Ordos and Gifteds the following message: you're terrible.

Okay, this message is borne of a thorough-going level of frustration, more than a little of it self-directed as being a practical Newbie despite ostensibly having something like a dozen-plus WW games under my belt.

However, that is in the deep past.

My lynching is at least in part the cascading of poor choices made: largely having too much fun and being too flippant on Day 1 and taking the better part of two Days to get back into Form (pun intended).

That said, there are four Innocents dead, about to five, and nary a Wolf to be seen.

And I am not a Cobbler.

If I were a Cobbler--and the narration is about to reveal I am not--I would have been far more careful. Like the accusations made of Legate, that he is more exuberant as an Ordo and careful when Evil, I would have lurked a lot more deliberately. Instead, by simply enjoying this Cursed game when I was roped in at the last minute to understudy for Wilwa, I have been doomed by that very excitement and you are all welcome to chains in Angband for your troubles.

Unwritten rules like "don't discuss the Gifteds" are nonsense and now that I have had it drawn to my attention, I am peeved enough to make my next WW performance include it henceforth ad infinitum, on a part with my wry, overdramatic distaste for Day 1s during Day 1. Although, as noted in a previous post, I do have a difficulty admitting if I've messed up.

Sadly, since you are lynching an Ordinary Villager, I do not have any names to give you for your troubles. I have dreamed of no one, protected no one, set traps near no one! I can't even tell you what my motivations or plans have been, because that would be redundant: I have been 100% upfront and honest in every post I've written on this thread, so if you're wondering what I thought about so-and-so, go back and reread the post.

That said, Pitch's vote for Kath on Day 1 remains A Thing I am suspicious of, though I have come around to be less suspicious of Pitch (admittedly, I might be projecting, because his irritation is a dim mirror of my own). Meanwhile, Kath has NOT responded to my suspicions of her, and I read that "if I just ignore the accusations of this bandwaggon dumpster fire in the making, I can keep coasting."

Thus, if you would please lynch one of them, I would be much obliged. If, however, the Wolves eat one or the other and prove me entirely wrong, I shall make my mea culpas in the Dead Thread.

I bequeath the following thoughts:

Brinn - probably a wolf.
Kath - totally a wolf.
Greenie - might not be a wolf
Legate - probably a wolf
Mac - probably a wolf
Nilp - I'd tell you I think he's Gifted, but it seems you'll lynch me for that.
Pitchwife - Cobbler or Wolf, not a good guy
Rikae - probably a wolf
Shasta - maybe a wolf
Sally - probably a wolf
Lommy - maybe not a wolf


In other words, I believe Nilp, and I haven't really got suspicions of Lommy or Greenie, treasonous votes for me aside. The rest of the village is a big suspicious mess coloured with way too much suspicion for the only living (for a few minutes) villager whose innocence I'm sure of.

I regret I cannot stay another Day to sort out this miss.

[Thinlómien]

Well, as much as I'd like to think Form is just messing with us, that looked pretty sincere.

*headdesk*

[Formendacil]

Well, as much as I'd like to think Form is just messing with us, that looked pretty sincere.

*headdesk*

I like to think I could pull it off it it wasn't and I was just grandstanding, but... 8 minutes to find out.

[Pitchwife]

The Owl of Minerva flies at dusk...

[Thinlómien]

I have a real bad feeling about toMorrow now. Yikes.

[Boromir88]

After Blind Guardian's vicious and unexpected death there seemed to be a different feel in the town this day. They were more prepared and intent on finding a werewolf. Their very survival might depend on it! Would their dire situation end in some small hope with a werewolf lynched or would the town tear each other apart, while the pack watched on?

It was a day of bold plans, actions, and *pings*, but would it pay off to benefit the town? Would the extra preparation pay off or will everything dissolve into last minute chaos again? And what would the innocent dead have to say about the lynch today and who among the living do they empower?

A voice came out of Formendacil. Or perhaps more accurate it was his voice, but not his words. "The dead are most outraged and disturbed by the way this vote today has turned into a mob. Out of our anger and spite we have empowered Formendacil today. ++Legate"

At this point practically the whole village was against Formendacil, so it mattered not. Some of them seemed disturbed by the dead's chastisement. Others shouted "But what if you're a wolf!" "What if you're a cobbler!"

"Forget the dead, they had their chance. We're still lynching you!" and the townspeople pushed Formendacil to the gallow. After he was hung, they anxiously waited for something to happen. It had to be. He had to turn? Or there had to be some note connecting his allegiance to the werewolves?

Nothing. Another ordinary villager lynched and dead.

Some kicked rocks angrily and would go to sleep just as angry. Others swear they heard a voice from beyond the grave again say..."How does this keep happening in my villages (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=664862&postcount=282)?"

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3

The Living

A Little Green
Brinniel
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

-----

It is Night 4. Silence in the town.

Werewolves discuss and kill

Seer dream

Ranger protect.

Beast Hunter do your trapping

[Boromir88]

After the fifth consecutive death of a villager, and still four werewolves prowling the inhabitants, could anything get any more hopeless for the innocent townspeople? Their powerful gifteds were still alive, but for how much longer? They really need any sign for a glimmer of hope.

But the village's fortune was going to go from worse to dreadful. The wolves had their next target and were closing in on Greenie's house. She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out. When she awoke there were four figures standing around her.

"You!" Greenie shouted! "I just..."

"Having nightmares? Or should we ask dreaming about us?" said one of the werewolves.

"We are oh so close to destroying this town and can't have the village Seer messing that up. Whatever secrets or dreams you had of us, will die with you. By this time tomorrow, we will have eaten everyone in this town." said another.

The werewolves closed in on Greenie and they had fine dining of the Seer tonight.

After devouring on the seer, a mug of ale was sitting on a night table. One of the werewolves took a big gulp and started passing it around to his mates.

"I don't think Greenie's going to be needing this anymore? What can be better than some fine Dorwinion wine to wash down the delicious taste of a seer?"

What the wolves did not notice, at least not at first is the the mug of wine was sitting on top of a lever. The lever released a small, smooth, heavy stone that began rolling off the edge of the table. Fascinated and drunk off their sweet victory, the wolves watched this anachronistic rube-goldberg machine as the stone rolled off the table. The stone knocked over a cup lying on the floor. The cup was tied by a string and on the other end of the string was tied another cup that was pulled off a shelf of books and fell to the ground with a clang. The books had been lined up like a row of dominos and all began tipping over. The last book in the line hit a spring and released an arrow from the wall!

The arrow struck one of the werewolves who howled in pain.

"I don't think it hit anything vital" howled Legate who had an arrow sticking into his thigh. I'll be alright. Someone carry me and get me out of this death trap."

"Shouldn't we try to remove it first?" asked one of Legate's friends. "It looks like it's causing you a lot of pain."

"It burns!" howled Legate.

One of the werewolves tried to grab the arrow and break it but also began to shriek in pain. "It's SILVER! That rotten Beast Hunter has silver arrows!"

Legate knew what that meant. Even if they got the arrow out, with a silver lined arrow. It was the bane of Werewolves and he would be good as dead soon. "Avenge me! We still got the seer tonight! Kill that nasty Beast Hunter and avenge me!"

One of the werewolves snapped Legate's neck to make it a quicker death.

They may have gotten the seer. But the Beast Hunter took one of them.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3
A Little Green (Seer) - killed by pack Night 4
Legate of Amon Lanc (Werewolf) - caught in BH booby trap Night 4

The Living

Brinniel
Kath
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

Innocent tally 6 (1 cobbler)/Werewolves 3 (1 NW)

[Boromir88]

It is Day 4. But go on and bring me a lynch.

Sorry for the very tiny delay. I promised the BH a rube-goldberg type trap. And it's really hard to write one of those descriptively!

[Macalaure]

Holy Yikes! :eek:

[satansaloser2005]

WHOA. :eek:

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there! :Merisu:

[Brinniel]

We've lost our seer, but at least we don't have to worry about Legate anymore thanks to our Beast Hunter (which I will assume is Nilp unless proven otherwise).

It seems clear that Greenie dreamt Legate - she's the only other that deviated from the Formy train. I'll take a look at her posts to see who else she may have dreamed of. And hopefully the medium vote will give us a hint - though we won't know until toMorrow.

I feel really bad about that Formy lynch. I think all of us innocents deserve to lick poor Formy's shoes while I'm sure the baddies spent the Night dancing in glee. Since basically everyone voted for him yesterDay, I don't think the voting tally will say much of anything - we will need to dig deeper than that. And of course, take a look at Legate's posts along with any mentions of him.

[Thinlómien]

Oh my god :eek::eek:

Nice work, Nilp.

Otherwise it's really past my bedtime so I'll get back to everything tomorrow but god. What a night. Also we're obviously not discussing the game in our apartment but you guys should have heard Legate's hysterical maniacal laughter when he just opened the thread. :D

[Macalaure]

That's a lot to unwrap here.

So first, yay for Nilp! (Assuming it was Nilp)

But there goes our seer...

The wolves chose to not put the nightmare wolf in the line of fire for the kill. I suppose they considered Legate a goner anyway. It does re-iterate though that the wolves seem to value their numbers higher than the NW powers.

We have to agree for some kind of mode for Greenie to send us her knowledge. Doesn't hurt to analyze her posts anyway, obviously.

And then there's Legate to analyze.

It's going to be interesting to analyze the voting, too, considering that every one left voted for the same person. :rolleyes: A close look at the way the suspicion against him mounted over days is going to be legitimately interesting, though.

And considering that Form was the medium, I dare not imagine the amount of harsh language the dead aimed at the living yesterDay. :(

Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!

Unless I'm mistaken, the beast hunter can only trap a wolf once. Nilp-assuming-it's-Nilp is effectively an ordo now.

[Thinlómien]

Addendum: there will be a lot to analyse now which will be very good for the village. I trust Greenie to have left clues (not looking good for Kath btw), and Legate must have some trails, AND we should figure out how to communicate with Greenie in the dead thread. It will be a busy day.

edit: xed with Mac

[Rikae]

I made a note of Greenie's analysis of Legate looking very seerish if he was a wolf, but then when she gave the wrong number of dreams I thought "nah, probably not the seer" ...

Well done, Nilp!

Now: I was really worried about toDay being the last day and getting myself lynched because of my antics yesterDay, but it's not quite so dire now. Still, I should explain. I was ridiculously sure Form was a wolf, and thought I could simultaneously protect the seer and ensure a wolf lynch. :( I figured it would be the last thing I did in the living thread, so I did everything I could to stir the pot and get the other wolves to ... uh ... float to the top? Is that what wolves do? Anyway, I'm really embarrassed. Don't lynch me, I'm a plain ordo who has apparently lost all their wolf-detecting ability.

[Kath]

Well that was a rollercoaster! A serious blow to lose the Seer but a very effective Night for the Beast Hunter.

Lommy is right that finding a way to communicate with Greenie in the Dead Thread is a good idea but given the only means of communication is the vote for the Medium, and we only see that in the narration, I think the effectiveness of any such communication can only really come into play toMorrow.

I am also aware that Greenie's sustained suspicion of me makes things look pretty bad for me toDay. The only thing I hope can convince people that I am not a furry evil-doer is that despite the sustained suspicion, her vote went to Legate in the end. Had I been a wolf, and had she dreamed wolf-me and wolf-Legate, why switch her vote? Even though the Form-waggon (and seriously sorry Form!) pretty much knocked anyone else out of the running, I would have been a better bet for the lynch yesterDay over Legate as far as I can tell.

[Macalaure]

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

[Brinniel]

Day 1
Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.
Clearly has not dreamed of Kath at this point.

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler
Could she have dreamed of an evil Pitch? Considering she also speculates that he could be the cobbler, I'm guessing no.

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.
Note: She does end up voting Pitch.
It's possible Greenie dreamed of an innocent Shasta, Lommy, Rikae, or Mac. But considering she singles out Lottie, I suspect she was her Night 1 dream.

Day 2

I think Shasta's vote comes across as the least fishy of the lot, though admittedly this is simply due to timing; it was the first real vote in the game (sorry Nilp, not counting yours ), and before most of the action happened. But also his tone where he admits that Huin’s response made him feel slightly better but Huin’s still the one he’s most comfortable voting, looks genuine to me.

Rikae says Huin’s paranoia over Lottie and Kath setting him up looks like a guilty conscience, and is second to vote for him. Merits extra attention based on vote placement if Form or Nilp are wolves, but I’m not sure how likely this is given the general feel of the voting yesterDay. I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way – Huin would have been a very easy target for a wolf looking for a decent D1 argument against someone, but I could just as well see innocent Rikae finding him the most suspicious of the lot given how generally uneventful the Day was.

Nog votes for Huin after a case against him and several disclaimers on how little there is to go on. This combination looks pretty incriminating – textbook hand-washing wolf – but almost too much so to be true. He’s also quick to turn on Legate based on the Lottie kill, and while the argument has merit, it doesn’t make me feel much better about Nog; if the Huin lynch incriminated a wolf (or more than one), and they killed Lottie for the Huin comments rather than the Legate ones, setting Legate up would be a good way of distracting the village from the Huin lynchers. Then again, the argument about Legate seems plausible too. Could even be wolf-on-wolf? (Sorry, speculation mode went into overdrive.)

Kath seals Huin’s fate with a fourth vote. There were still plenty of people left to vote though, so she wouldn’t necessarily have known this. Her vote was certainly consistent with her earlier pre-vote post where she said she’d like to go for either Huin or Nilp. That post was one of the starting points of the whole suspicion on Huin, and I could see Kathwolf leaving that to take root and then come back later and vote for him because she suspected him all along so she can’t be faulted for jumping on a bandwagon. But as with Nog, this looks so contrived it makes me wonder if Kathwolf would really do this. She would have known that orchestrating an innocent lynch is bound to get her noticed early on when normally she’s capable of skating by quite comfortably for Days before anyone even considers the possibility of her being guilty.

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list. Nog and Kath look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true. Rikae makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.
If she dreamed of anyone from here, my guess would be Shasta, but it's not clear.

Incidentally, I did have a brief look at Legate's posts. Not much stood out to me either way - there's some game mechanics talk and comments on how quiet it is, but also what was probably the only list post of D1. He votes for Form, saying he prefers him to Huin. Had previously said Brinn and Form discussed wolf strategies in a way that looked like they had already had the discussion the Night before. No alarm bells here. D2 he analyses first the Lottie kill and then the Huin lynch. His post on Lottie did make me raise an eyebrow - he mentions framing him as a possible motive, though to his credit doesn't seem to think it likely. In the same post, he also pretty much discredits the idea that the wolves thought Lottie was the Seer who dreamed of Huin by saying they would think a potential Seer who dreamed an innocent on N1 was "no big deal". This is a distinctly weird argument, but would be even weirder if Legate was a wolf since the Huin theory would be a good counter-argument against the suspicion he would have known he'd come under.

Overall, reading Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence. (Unless he's the NW, in which case all bets are off.) What I do find interesting though is the dynamic between Nog and Legate as each of them now seems to think the Lottie kill incriminates the other. *fetches popcorn* Joking aside though, this unnerves me as I think there's still a decent chance they're both innocent - Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

If Greenie did dream of Legate, it did not happen on Night 2.

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).
Shasta looks like he may be the most likely Night 2 dream based on this post.

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.
Could she dreamt of an evil Kath? It's possible, but if she had, I don't know that she would've wavered between Nog and Kath like she did.

Day 3

Brinniel – I’m not sure what to make of her. Her D1 vote was a very safe one for BG, D2 she was the nail in Nog’s coffin, though with all that chaos yesterDay I can’t be sure she actually knew she was. I also don’t like how both Sally and Mac seem happy to give her a pass because she’s consistent.

Formendacil – Gives me a headache. I still think the Cobbler theory is a possibility, given his discussion of Gifteds and potential Cobbler-hinting early on D1. I haven’t seen anything particularly wolfy from him per se, but I agree with Shasta that there’s a possible pattern to him ending up as the runner-up but not lynched twice in a row now.

Kath – Possibly my best lead at the moment. Her D1 Huin vote is still pretty suspicious in how it was orchestrated, and a vote for Nilp D2 doesn’t make her look any better – it was the second vote for Nilp so can’t be called an outright throwaway, but also Nilp wasn’t a very likely lynchee so keeps her nose clean. I don’t like how careful she’s playing – I mean, she’s always careful to some degree, but this looks a bit too deliberate.

Legate – Another possible wolf, especially given the Lottie kill and the odd comments at the end of yesterDay. Not sure what to make of his interaction with Kath, though – his talk of a Kathwagon yesterDay looked sketchy, but there was a bit on D1 where he misremembered BG’s vote for Form as following Kath instead of Huin. This would be an unlikely mistake to make if they were fellows, as I’d expect him to naturally keep tabs on what his fellows do and who they vote for.

Macalaure – Another headache. I’ve agreed with him a lot over this game, but I’m not at all comfortable with his posting toDay and how he’s suddenly convinced Form is a wolf. I’ll reserve judgment until I hear back from him though as I think I might have misunderstood something.

Nilp – I feel like I’ve gotten a better read of him since he stopped trying to commit suicide, and I’m not too worried at the moment.

Pitchwife – Definitely want to take a look at him toDay. I don’t like how he was suspected on D1 (including by yours truly) and somehow managed to slip by fairly unnoticed yesterDay. His Nog vote isn’t doing him any favours either, especially if Kath is a wolf.

Rikae – Like Nilp, I feel somewhat better about her. I had a quick read through her posts after yesterDay as she was involved in both lynches, but her reasoning looks pretty genuine to me. Additionally, I somehow think a Rikaewolf would play either more careful (as in, steering away from being implicated in innocent lynches twice in a row) or more confrontational/manipulative.

Sally – I’m getting slightly uneasy about her. Her list post, especially regarding Form and Brinn, seems somewhat contrived - as in, the logic looks off from an innocent POV. Nothing more substantial yet, though.

Shasta – I like to think I’m okay at reading him, and still get more or less an innocent Shasta -vibe.

Lommy – Also starting to worry me. She’s somehow more slippery and careful than usual, and pretty much under everyone’s radar. Part of this might just be due to her being around less than usual, but I don’t think that’s all of it. Another one I’d love to read through toDay if I have time.
Another innocent Shasta clue. I keep thinking she must've dreamed of Legate on Night 3, but she still remains very suspicious of Kath so I wonder if maybe she was a dream after all.

Finally, I like that Rikae and Shasta are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them). Lommy is still worrying me, and Mac is still a headache. I’m voting soon and unless someone gives me a better argument in the next fifteen minutes it’s going to be for either Kath or Legate.

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.
Okay, with that last post, maybe she didn't dream of Kath after all.

Brinn's guesses for Greenie dreams:

Night 1: Lottie
Night 2: Shasta
Night 3: Legate

If that's right, then it makes me feel good about Shasta. Unfortunately that would mean her other dreams are dead which isn't as helpful (hopefully we can get an idea of her Night 4 dream with toDay's medium vote).

It's possible she dreamt of Kath, but I find it less likely. Still - it doesn't make Kath look very good since she did suspect her for two straight Days. Could the wolves have worried that Greenie dreamed of two wolves? I will need to take a look at Kath's posts along with Legate, though that will need to wait for a few hours at least.

[Rikae]

Day 1 defends Nilp#37
#98 Kath's argument about Huin was odd #98, flip-flopping on Nilp
#136 Questions Pitch about his comments on Nilp being an easy target
Votes for Pitch:
Out of the ones I mentioned earlier, I'm most comfortable voting for him. Too tired to think this any further so crossing fingers and toes instead!

Not much here on Day one, nothing really standing out as dreamish … guessing she dreamed an innocent. Possibly, Nilp.

Day 2:

#227* we have to consider the possibility of*Legate*being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing*Lottie's role, I thought her vote for*Legate*was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if*Legate*being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time.

I'm glad to see more of*Nilp*and*Mac*toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of*Nilp*now, and*Mac*worries me a little but I'm trying to be sensible about it given how badly things went last time this happened!

#248 analyzes Huin voters. Makes points for and against each, concludes:
Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list.*Nog*and*Kath*look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true.*Rikae*makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think*Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

#247 Nog is acting weird

#251 I read that as frustrated*Nog*overreacting to a theory that incriminates him - and conveniently implying anyone who suspects him is a wolf.
Overall, reading*Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence

#262
I'm currently most uneasy about*Nog*and*Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of*Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of*Rikae*and*Brinn, and flip-flopping on*Legate*and*Mac.


Lommy*and*Sally*are securely under my radar, and while*Sally*is understandable,*Lommy*is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about*Shasta*yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too.*Nilp*seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself.**I'm also leaning innocent on*BG*and to some extent*Form*(although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

Really still not looking like she's dreamt any wolves – grouping Legate in with known innocent Nog at this point. Perhaps Nilp, and Shasta on night 1?

#268 votes for Kath, based on her case against Hui.

#356 Questioning Mac for being convinced Form is a wolf – specifically, based on him not being packmates with Kath. Definitely get the feeling she knows one of Mac, Kath or Form's roles at this point and is going from there.

Also criticizes Sally's reasoning on Form. Yeah, her starting point again is Form's innocence. He would have made sense as a dream, too.

Also, finding Legate's concern about a Kathwagon suspicious, and accuses him of handwashing for his “last minute votes” thing. Definitely looks like she dreamed him the previous night, perhaps Form on one of the earlier nights?

#360 continues building case against Legate

#429
Finally, I like that*Rikae*and*Shasta*are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them).
If she dreamt Shasta she probably dreamt me too.

Possible dreams:
Night 1 & 2 some combo of Form, Nilp, Shasta, me
Night 3: Legate

[Rikae]

WHOA. :eek:

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there! :Merisu:

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

[Brinniel]

Which beloved, and who is "we"?
I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

[Rikae]

I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

Except that Nilp can't do it again toMorrow, but the wolves can "do it again" in the sense of killing another gifted. And "beloved" could be any of several people, with Nilp as cover.
It just strikes me as the kind of thing a baddie might say for their own amusement - playing with fire - when they feel like victory is close.

Another thing: I realized I've been thinking of Lommy as innocentish all this time without any solid reason, and, reading back through her posts quickly, I was struck by how it all had this light, cheerful vibe, dancing around on the surface of things, talking a lot about game mechanics and other not-directly-productive stuff, those VERY easy votes. Why haven't I been considering her a possible wolf? She's been acting like a classic careful wolf!

[Brinniel]

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1

I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Hmm...could go either way here.

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!
I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.
I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.

Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...
His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee! :D

[Brinniel]

Thoughts so far:

Most Likely Innocent*
Nilp
Shasta

More Likely Innocent*
Lommy
Rikae

More Likely a Wolf
Kath
Mac
Pitchwife
Sally

*Innocent doesn't exclude the cobbler

Well, that narrows it down. Could it be that easy that all three wolves are among my list of four? I will bet at least two of those four are wolves. Will do so more digging later. I feel like I've been so lost these past few Days, but with the events of last Night, now maybe we're getting somewhere.

[Rikae]

Agreed on most points.

Most likely innocent:
Shasta
Nilp
Kath. Why? Greenie was after her from the start. In retrospect, it doesn't look like a dream compared to how she handled Legate, but at the time, to a pack including a Kathwolf, I think it would.

Which leaves more likely wolves:
Mac
Pitch
Sally
Brinn

(apologies for lack of bolding, I'm on my phone)

[Rikae]

Edit: and Lommy on that last list. I didn't see any sign of her being a dreamed innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

Brinn is correct. :) I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.

[Rikae]

Brinn is correct. :) I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

[satansaloser2005]

Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.

I can only be wrong so many times! Right? Right?

Probably being defensive here, but Rikae keeps questioning me on what, to me, seem like obvious statements. I'm not sure if it's evil or cobblery or just the way they read my posts (which I am sometimes confusing!), so I'll keep an eye on it for now and come back to that as well in the morning.

We need to be careful toDay with our lynch. Nilp bought us a Day, sure, but let's not waste it, eh? (Hint: Those of you putting me on your suspect lists are wasting it, it being our precious time.)

Out for now. Maybe back later, but I have some chores to do and will probably then go to bed.


x'd with Rikae

[satansaloser2005]

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly? :(

[Rikae]

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly? :(

I hope you're just covering your tail here, and not assuming I'm too slow to understand the surface meaning of what you said.

Your cover story doesn't work. The beast hunter has one trap.

[Rikae]

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy. :(:eek:

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

[Macalaure]

Formendacil, or rather, what people said about him

Day1
He pretty much got under scrutiny right away, with people forming some half-joking suspicions based on ic posts, wolf strategy, possible cobbler hints, Day1 grumpiness, and no-lynch stuff. Rereading/reskimming it, he sure made it easy to suspect him, which gives the cobbler suspicions some merit. Anyway, among the still-alive, Sally, Brinn, Pitch, Lommy, Shasta, and Rikae are the ones caught up in it, so more than half the village. I don't feel like I can tell for sure here who may have been grasping for straws to set him up and who was grasping for straws because there wasn't anything else to grasp for yet. Oddly none of the still-living ended up voting for him.


Day2
-Kath analyzes Lottie and is lead to mention a Form-Legate-Nog pack.
-Pitch agrees with BG about her bad Form gut feeling, and with Kath's idea, too, while throwing more names into the pot.
-Brinn agrees with Legate that if BG is a wolf, Form likely is not, and vice versa.
-Pitch brings up Form's gifted discussion and says that if Form or Nilp were the NW, the pack would not have come to save either.
-Lommy: if Form is a wolf, look at Nog and Kath. Also agrees with Pitch. Puts him on her list of suspects and says she's flip-flopping on him.
-Sally finds Form suspicious without giving a reason, putting him as No. 1 in her possible wolf pack list.
-Rikae has Form as vaguely suspicious.
-Pitch goes after him because of the way he worded his suspicion of Pitch and Kath. Legitimate in general, but Pitch's reaction seems a bit much.
-Shasta brings to attention that people point out BG's gifted discussion but not enough go for Form's, though he also says that wolves don't have much of a reason to in the first place. (Why point this out if you don't think it's wolfish?) Kath replies to this that she didn't notice and Pitch replies that he did.
-Pitch adds that wolves have no reason to, but cobblers do.
-Brinn adds that the NW might as well, and Shasta agrees.
-Pitch puts Form in his fourth tier of suspicion, due to cobbler suspicions, I assume.
-Lommy puts him into a very large "who knows" category, saying he doesn't sit right with her, but that it might be kneejerk. Later considers voting for him and still later does, since he's the most suspicious one among those who have votes.
-Brinn could go for him as well, says his posts look calculated. (Not sure what she means by this.)
-Pitch wanted to vote for Kath but Form's vote makes him reconsider.
-Lommy tries to steer Nog into voting for him.
-Pitch could vote for Form but rather wouldn't, since he thinks he's the cobbler.
-Brinn wants to vote for Nog but doesn't consider him feasible at this point. Form is her second choice.
-Kath votes Nilp, wants to go through Form's posts before judging him.
-Sally, too, doesn't vote Form due to cobbler suspicion.
-Shasta votes for Form without time to explain.

Not sure whether the Form-cobbler faction is more or less suspicious, honestly. None of the still living had him as their first suspect, but many considered voting him and some did. There's a lot of agreeing posts in here, which doesn't sit too well with me.


Day3
-Brinn says that she preferred Nog over Form since Form looked more like a cobbler. She analyzes BG and concludes that it doesn't look good for Form.
-Sally is the first among the still-living to actually go all out to suspect him. Didn't like that Form suspected her for being quiet. Says the Nogrod lynch may have been to save Form. She lists Kath alongside him.
-Brinn changes her mind from Form-cobbler to Form-NW.
-Shasta is the first to say that Form is suspicious for still being alive and that he's being saved.
-Rikae doesn't buy Form's vote explanation, implies they think he's a wolf.
-Lommy agrees with Brinn on Form looking suspicious due to BG, but still hesitates, and also on Form possibly being the NW. Picks up a post of Greenie on me and Form and adds that it wouldn't surprise her to see me be wolves with him.
-Nilp states that he had trusted Form but is confused about it now.
-Lommy lists him as double hmmmmm, due to not dying, posting statistics instead of opinions, and BG's suspicion.
-Brinn doesn't like Form's reaction to Nilp's reveal.
-Kath says the general suspicion about Form makes more sense now that she noticed... his Day1 post about not voting??
-Shasta lists Form as first option next to Kath, because of the traction thing - i.e. since he keeps not getting lynched.
-Rikae envisions a scenario with Form as wolf and Brinn and me innocent (which yesterDay at first struck me as a super obvious seer hint) and then speculates on packmates based on this. (And they manage to rub a whole bunch of people the wrong way which is quite amusing to read, no matter who's guilty or not in this bunch.)
-Kath went back to reading up on Form and finds a number of points against him, which each look ok on their own.
-Brinn says that Form and Pitch stick out to her, leaning Form, who she suspects to be the NW planning to foil Nilp in death. Kath will agree with this and also with that the NW should still be lynched.
-Shasta states that Rikae and Legate wanted to save both, Kath and Form.

And here come the votes:
-Kath++Form
-Sally states she still wants to lynch Form.
-Rikae++Form
-Sally++Form
-Shasta++Form
-Lommy agrees with Shasta's Form/Kath idea, though she's not sure about it. Wants to vote for Form since she's not convinced of Legate's guilt.
-Lommy++Form
-me++Form
-Legate++Form
-Brinn doesn't like that everybody is voting for Form.
-Pitch++Form, after briefly considering Legate.
-Nilp++Form
-Brinn++Form
-Lommy has heavy second thoughts after Form's testament.

Kath - ignores him at first then warms up to lynching him after others prod her to. Her one larger post about him looks ok by itself, but given that Form did do a lot of odd things, it's not too hard to fabricate for a wolf. So while on the one hand this was a very convenient way to go for her, why would wolfKath ignore him for so long at first?

Rikae - I really don't know what to make of them at all...

Sally - giving credit to her for being the first among the still-living to firmly suspect him instead cobbler stuff or him being one of many suspects. The tightness of her case is just so-so.

Shasta - two things rub me wrong pretty strongly: pointing out Form's gifted talk while one sentence later saying it's not wolfish. Very much feels like he's trying to make other people suspicious of him while washing his own hands of it. Then there his idea that Form is more suspicious because he keeps surviving, which is still nonsense to me.

Lommy - she's the only one who, while suspicious of Form, maintains a hesitant tone. A wolf might do that to not look too bad once the innocent is dead, but it feels genuine. She too though says that Form is suspicious for not dying, though.

Pitch - maintains the Form-cobbler thing for the longest time. A wolf could discuss the cobblerness of an innocent to make them look bad without accusing them of being a wolf. Interestingly, he doesn't meaningfully mention him at all on Day3.

Nilp - only says that he's confused. That's it. Yep.

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.


Based on this only, I'd say roughly:

Shasta - Pitch/Kath - Rikae/Sally - Nilp - Lommy/Brinn

[Brinniel]

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.
I truly have had tunnel vision these last couple Days unfortunately. :( Maybe these folks with spreadsheets are doing something right, though the thought of creating spreadsheets myself makes me cringe.

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.