Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread [Archive] - Page 3

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 12:23 AM

This post includes any quotes of living players that talk about/interact with Legate (excluding Nilp whom I will presume is the BH as nothing has led me to think otherwise).

Day 1

Under my radar so far - Legate, Mac, Pitch, Brinn

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.
Added this quote because I forgot about this post. Which reiterates my theory that the wolves didn't kill Lottie because she was a seer who already dreamed him, but because they thought she would.

I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves?

So other than Lommy and Pitch agreeing that Legate's comment "But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold." didn't make sense, there is no other mention of our known wolf. Inconclusive.

Day 2

Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.

If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it.

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?).I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

and I'm likely to vote one of them toDay. The one who stands out to me the most is probably Nogrod, who seems to be contrivedly making mountains out of molehills (yes, I know we don't have much to go on, but there's a fabricated undertone to his speculations) and a little tense too. I know he prefers to be innocent so being a wolf could totally make him act like this.

Legate, Sally, and Brinn I'd all like to hear more from.

If I were a wolf-Legate, her shift at last minute would certainly have been alarming, but my likely conclusion would be either she's a) a seer who hasn't dreamt me yet but is likely to, or b) a perceptive ordo. In the first case I'd be as good as dead, in the latter, my best chance of survival would be to not kill her immediately. I would see little harm in letting her live another day. for observation, on the off chance it was b) and I'd get out of it unscathed.

I'm really not buying (lots of that going on, is this a village meeting or a market?) Nog's theory that Lottie would have looked like a seer who dreamed Legate already. If she wanted to hint, she'd have been way more subtle, not ignored him all day and then painted a big target on herself at deadline.

Now, Nog is another matter. If I were a Nogwolf, there would be every reason to kill Lottie, both as a potential seer and as someone the village was likely to treat as a semi-known innocent toDay, and little reason not to, as it doesn't draw attention to him nearly as dramatically as to Legate.

Of course this mostly applies to any other wolf as well. I'm going to need to go back and look at what Lottie said about those she found innocentish, I think.

But for now, -1 wolf point to Legate, +1 wolf point to Nogrod.
For the record, I think they were spot on with scenario A in the first paragraph. Doesn't necessarily indicate their role either way.

Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
This feels fishy to me.

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count? I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.
This makes me think that its less likely Mac and Sally are in a pack together. Would two wolves openly agree on suspicion against a packmate?

Legate - Something feels off about him.

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.
Yes, to be fair, I'm including myself in the quotes. :Merisu:

Conclusions: There were a bunch of psuedo-suspicions of Legate that may be wolf-on-wolf as no one follows through on them. Sally or Mac feel the most sinister, followed by Pitch.

Day 3

Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac.

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote.This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense.
Interesting how she defends Legate's post, then proceeds to list him in a possible wolfpack.

if I go back to his reasoning before the actual vote, the original suspicion is rather random.He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.
Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.
Hmm... this exchange makes me feel a little better about Mac.

I feel like I'm confusing myself right now and don't have a clear picture. I'm seeing fangs all over Legate's last post and I can't even begin to wrap my mind around Nilp right now.
Again, feeling better about him here.

I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move.

Greenie and Legate - I find myself agreeing with both of them a lot, which makes me inclined to trust them, even though I'm not sure that's smart. I don't know what to think of either of their relation to Kath - both Greenie's strong suspicion that I don't necessarily agree with and Legate's defensiveness of Kath stand out to me as midlly weird.

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him
After his previous opinion on Legate, he seems to slightly retreat here. If I were using a Rikae point system, this would be a -1.

Greenie had points about Lommy and Legate that I liked

Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.
I have doubts that an evil Rikae would call their packmate innocentish.

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.

I can definitely live with a Form lynching, though I'd prefer Pitch. I'd rather have Legate stay alive for at least one more day.

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.I think this is a good point. I mentioned before that I like the content of Legate's posts (regarding suspicions and such), however he also seems quieter and more reserved than normal. I still don't think the wolves killed Lottie suspecting she was a seer who dreamed of Legate because Hui seems like the more likely dream were she the seer. However, a wolf pack that includes Legate could've killed her for the latter reason even knowing that it could implicate Legate.

That is not enough reason for me to want to vote Legate toDay, but maybe I need to look at him toMorrow (again).

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

Okay, Day 3 had even more pseudo-suspicion of Legate without it turning into anything. I think if he hadn't been trapped last Night, the suspicion would've legitimately turned into something (especially with the seer's death).

Based on this, I'm thinking maybe a Pitch/Sally/Kath pack or alternatively a Pitch/Mac/Kath pack. But I need to look at what these players have said about each other to get a bigger picture (if I have time tomorrow as it's late). For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.

If there are NOT three wolves out of the four that I listed above, I would guess that the outlier is Lommy.

Anyway, Pitch and Sally are my biggest suspects right now.

Kath

06-11-2020, 04:33 AM

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.
This seems really logical and a good idea.

For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.
I'm quoting Brinn, but actually quite a few people keep talking about a Pitch/Kath combo. I'd love this to be explained because I've no idea what it's meant to be.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 07:03 AM

So we actually had a Greenseer?:eek: Is this Middle-earth or Westeros?

Got to say this comes as a surprise in more than one way. I mean, I had a strong innocent impression from her posts, but nothing particularly seerish; makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW. Why incriminate a packmate so heavily if you have nothing special to gain by his death?

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone and went for Greenie instead, unless of course Rikae is one themself. I mean, it's not impossible that Rikae was trying to set themself up as a decoy to distract from the real Seer, as they claim, but at the same time those hints could have been laid in preparation for a fake reveal to draw out the Seer toDay, and at the very least they could have drawn the Ranger's protection from the real Seer. So I must say I don't like their prophylactic apology in their first post toDay.

Kath

06-11-2020, 07:12 AM

A look at Legate:

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!
From Day 1. Well Lottie = innocent, Nilp I am assuming = BH, Form = innocent, BG = innocent. So the only person left there is Pitch. Would Legate hide a wolf amongst a list of innocents? I can't see why not. Also, there was a lot of Cobbler talk from Legate in hindsight as opposed to wolf talk. He convinces himself Form is a Cobbler then votes Form because he is more suspicious than Hui by default of being a Cobbler. Oh blast, how didn't we spot this:

It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.
It can only be by default if you know that Hui is innocent ... which Legate did!

Day 2
Exonerates Shasta's vote for Hui by saying it's impossible to tell how the Hui-wagon would go. Soft defend. Says Rikae's vote would only be significant if Form was a wolf, which he now know he wasn't, so could be setting up a defence. Begins to push suspicion of Nog here based on his vote. Not sure what he was concluding about my vote.

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.
Setting up a handy x relies on y that it turns out was based on two innocents. So he knew BG and Form were innocent and again pops Pitch's name in with that list.

Says Mac is downplaying the likelihood of Form and Nilp being wolves. Then leaps on Nog.

Summary of list post:
Good = Lommy, Greenie ( known innocent), Brinn, Rikae
Middle = Pitch, Nilp (assumed BH), Kath, Shasta, sally
Bad = Mac, Form (known innocent), Nog (known innocent), BG (known innocent)

So at a guess, Mac could be a wolf as Legate would probably be willing to name a fellow lupine as a top suspect. Also, at this point, I don't think Mac was even near a potential lynch candidate for most of the village, so it's a pretty safe suspicion. And then one from the middle - so to me that's Pitch, Shasta, sally. And one from the good - so Lommy, Brinn or Rikae.

Well that reeeeally narrowed things down. :rolleyes:

Hmm, right after that, he revises his list to make Shasta and sally more suspicious.

Day 3
Pushes at Rikae and Pitch for their votes. So I'd say maybe only one of these two would be wolfy. Also starts to connect Mac and Nilp as a pairing. Jumps on Form at this point.

Looks at Mac and decides it could go either way.

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.
In Nilp's previous post, he downgraded Mac from top suspect to 6th/7th, so this doesn't actually make any sense. Sensitive to mentions of Mac because ... Mac's a fellow wolf?

New list (summarised - and I underlined movers):
Good = Lommy, Brinn (previously was Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, Rikae)
Middle = Greenie, Kath, Pitch, Rikae, Shasta (previously was Pitch, Nilp, Kath, Shasta, sally)
Bad = sally, Mac, Form (previously was Mac, Form, Nog, BG)

So I'd say only one of sally and Mac was a wolf then, as they're both in the red there.

Mac, sally, Rikae are standing out the most to me here. Followed by Shasta and Pitch. Which probably means the remaining wolves are Lommy, Brinn and flipping Nilp given how wrong I've been all game. :confused:

Nilpaurion Felagund

06-11-2020, 07:28 AM

makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.As for me, since I'd set the trap around my house the DAY before, I simply went with the living villager who hadn't voted for Form. No deeper reason.

(I was more disappointed with my DAY 1 choice: it was down to Lottie or Bryn [sic], and guess who I chose.)

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 08:08 AM

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

Gonna try to keep this concise and I have to admit, I started this hoping I would not find Shasta to be innocent. Biased? Me? Nah. :p

All quotes by Greenie:

Day1

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie.

Night1 most likely one of these, with Lottie the most likely.

Day2

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little

Not me for Night1 or 2. Nilp for Night2 possible.

I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way

And not Rikae for Night1 or 2.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too.

Doesn't necessarily sound like she dreamt of Shasta Night1 or 2 either.

She votes Kath in the end, but it feels like suspicion, not knowledge.

Day3

Her list helps a lot.
not dreamt of: Brinn, Form, me, Pitch, Sally, Lommy
possible wolf: Kath, Legate
possible innocent: Nilp, Rikae, Shasta

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her.

Doesn't sound like she dreamt of Kath.

Ergo:

Night1: probably Lottie, maybe Shasta
Night2: probably Nilp, maaybe Rikae?
Night3: Legate

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 08:15 AM

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.
Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.
Hmm... this exchange makes me feel a little better about Mac.

That quote got messed up. I actually said:

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 08:24 AM

Whoops, thanks for correcting that Mac. My copy/paste got messed up there.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 08:30 AM

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.
Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 08:37 AM

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.Exactly that.

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 08:45 AM

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

Nilpaurion Felagund

06-11-2020, 08:49 AM

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.To add to Mac's post, if the good side agrees to vote for no one, they could just leave someone to vote someone else in case Legate votes for someone (since a tie would mean no Medium).

(That's assuming I understand it correctly that the majority+ vote is needed only to declare someone a Medium immediately, and not the sine qua non to having a Medium at all.)

EDIT: And as soon I hit post:
If there is a tie, or no one reached the threshold no Medium is chosen on that day. (The Rules (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=725967&postcount=1), emphasis mine)
I show my illiteracy.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 08:52 AM

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?
The wolves had their next target and were closing in on Greenie's house. She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 09:01 AM

I saw the argument that "If Kath is a wolf, why didn't they kill Greenie sooner?" and it got me thinking. Given that the pack seemed very sensitive to mentions of Legate, both Lottie and Greenie primarily died for that, they didn't seem to show the same concern for Kath.

The night in question is Night 3, where they picked BG. Maybe they were reeally confident they found a slipping seer? Maybe they thought Greenie's suspicion of Kath didn't have a seerish vibe to it?

Rereading BG again, her list of wolves had two known innocents (Form and Nog, both prominently), one known wolf (Legate), one semi-known innocent (Nilp), and one unknown (Sally) on it. Maybe they thought they were getting a seer who hadn't dreamt of a wolf yet, which sure is tempting.

I'm now imagining a scenario where Legate was super nervous and paranoid all the way through every single night and convinced the pack to go for whoever suspected him each time. :D

But yeah, the idea pretty much hinges on what exactly the wolves thought about BG, and we can't know that.

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone

Probably because they treated Form like a dreamt-of wolf.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 09:01 AM

I took the narration to imply she saw Legate, but now I'm curious as well.

Good morning! I spent the night burying my stupidity and will hopefully be all better now. Oy ve.

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 09:09 AM

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?

My attempt at flavor. I enjoy modding games and dabbled a little in the RPing on the 'Downs, but writing has never really piqued my interests. Basically I miss the games I modded and Fea never had to do much convincing to write the narrations for me. :p I tried to drag her out of retirement for a guest-written narration, but too much going on and she isn't able to follow along.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 09:23 AM

Form being innocent is a mind-boggle. Sorry, Form. I'm gonna have to do a major recalibration today.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 09:23 AM

Greenie did still get her Night4 dream, though, right?

Rikae

06-11-2020, 09:24 AM

Thing is, if she saw Legate last night, she didn't see him night 3 as everyone is supposing, so who did she see night 3?

Rikae

06-11-2020, 09:26 AM

Ah, I hadn't refreshed and hadn't seen Boro's reply yet.

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 09:28 AM

Greenie did still get her Night4 dream, though, right?

Correct.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 10:04 AM

A look at Pitch:

Day 1

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?
A lot of people found Pitch cobblerish for this post, but would a cobbler be so obvious? I do wonder if he could be a wolf disguising himself as the cobbler. Or maybe the comment means nothing at all.

That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed.
I believe this is his first mention of Kath.

Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.
He then proceeds to vote for her. However, it was a throwaway vote at that point. Could this be wolf-on-wolf? Possibly. His suspicion of Kath wasn't really gathering traction at this point.

Day 2

Takes a look at Hui voters and makes this conclusion:
If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

Responds to Formy's speculating of gifteds with this:
Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent.
Fair enough, I found it worrying too. But it could be an easy cover if he's a wolf.

#264 He responds to Nogrod that he's suspected lynching an innocent for forced reasoning.

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?
Interesting.

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.

I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler).
Ends up voting Nog.

If he thinks Formy is a cobbler, why would that change is mind about voting Kath? After all, a cobbler wouldn't know the roles of the wolves for sure. His suspicion of Nogrod was fairly weak throughout the Day - he seemed to go along with what others were saying.

Day 3

As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.
This defense feels flimsy to me.

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.
There was a lot of back and forth between them and this was just one post. But it makes me think they aren't likely packmates.

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.
Proceeds to vote for Formy. If he's a wolf, that last sentence was a very safe suspicion of a packmate.

Day 4
Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW.
Why would you be disappointed that he wasn't the NW? That's a good thing for us.

I still find Pitch suspicious. Looking at these posts, I wouldn't rule out a Pitch/Kath pack. A Pitch/Rikae pack looks least likely.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 10:20 AM

The wolves chose to not put the nightmare wolf in the line of fire for the kill. I suppose they considered Legate a goner anyway. It does re-iterate though that the wolves seem to value their numbers higher than the NW powers.Which makes me also think Legate was the most widely suspected of them and that the NW is someone who's managed to stay fairly uncontroversial.

Did Boro's performance last game inspire half the village to try some kind of ploys this time? For what it's worth, Rikae's confession makes me feel a little better about them. I see little point in fabricating something like that as a wolf. edit: I'm gonna do a legate-180 on this, see below :p

Brinn's guesses for Greenie dreams:

Night 1: Lottie
Night 2: Shasta
Night 3: Legate

If that's right, then it makes me feel good about Shasta. Unfortunately that would mean her other dreams are dead which isn't as helpful (hopefully we can get an idea of her Night 4 dream with toDay's medium vote).

It's possible she dreamt of Kath, but I find it less likely. Still - it doesn't make Kath look very good since she did suspect her for two straight Days. Could the wolves have worried that Greenie dreamed of two wolves? I will need to take a look at Kath's posts along with Legate, though that will need to wait for a few hours at least. I read Brinn's analysis and I very much agree with the conclusions. It's fairly intriguing Rikae comes to less certain conclusions with the possible remarkable difference of downplaying Shasta's perceived innocence. This *could* point to Rikae being a wolf reluctant to give the village a known innocent, or to Brinn being a bold packmate of Shasta's.

I realized I've been thinking of Lommy as innocentish all this time without any solid reason, and, reading back through her posts quickly, I was struck by how it all had this light, cheerful vibe, dancing around on the surface of things, talking a lot about game mechanics and other not-directly-productive stuff, those VERY easy votes. Why haven't I been considering her a possible wolf? She's been acting like a classic careful wolf! Not sure I agree with this characterisation. I think I've scarcely discussed game mechanics or "other not-directly-productive stuff"! Also, not sure why "cheerful" is a bad thing in your book (or supposedly out of character for me). What I do agree with is my votes being sloppy. This game with its very little evidence in any direction has been trying on me - but don't worry, I think I'm already much wiser toDay. That being said - on the risk of falliong into the trap of knee-jerkism, I don't like this quote from Rikae one bit. It has the smell of "I need a suspicion that's not one of my fellows, let's pick one villager and go through their posts and come up with a reason to suspect them".

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone and went for Greenie instead, unless of course Rikae is one themself. I mean, it's not impossible that Rikae was trying to set themself up as a decoy to distract from the real Seer, as they claim, but at the same time those hints could have been laid in preparation for a fake reveal to draw out the Seer toDay, and at the very least they could have drawn the Ranger's protection from the real Seer. So I must say I don't like their prophylactic apology in their first post toDay. Actually, that's a very good point! With TWO gifteds protecting Nightly targets, it would actually have made a lot of sense for a wolf (or to a lesser degree, a cobbler) to fake seer hint in order to lure the protection away from their Night kill choice! *side eyes everyone I have thought the seer in the course of the game, meaning at least Mac, and Rikae with their confession*

I will still read the legatelyses (haven't got as far as that can of worms) and overall comment in a sec...

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 10:37 AM

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.This is good, because we can hope Greenie dreamed of a wolf last Night.

Since we don't really need "if Nilp is a wolf" option, should we instead make something like:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.
If you don't have a known wolf AND think there's something alarmingly stupid about this way of communication, empower Pitch.

I'm just worried there's something we haven't taken into account, but can't think of what, and I'd like to give the dead the option to opt out from this form of communication/ let them tell us to rethink. Obviously the biggest problem is that we might have to spend toMorrow checking that they don't have a 2nd wolf while it's fairly likely they don't have one and we'd benefit much more from a known innocent.

But I think we can leave that can of worms for toMorrow. Especially if we lynch Kath who's the only relatively likely pre- last night wolf dream of Greenie's. :p

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 10:57 AM

I'm here for a bit but I'm at a bit of a loss as to where to start, to be honest. :o

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 10:58 AM

It has the smell of "I need a suspicion that's not one of my fellows, let's pick one villager and go through their posts and come up with a reason to suspect them".

This is kind of my read of Mac's suspicion of me, to be honest.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:01 AM

From what I recall, Legate is fine with being bussed - I'm going to go out on a limb and say Legate is probably fine with bussing, as well - so who was Legate going after most heavily? Could be the NW - I also think there's merit to the theory that whoever-it-was (I remember reading it, don't remember the author) brought up about the NW possibly being unsuspected enough to not have them be the target of Nilp's trap and giving up Legate instead.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 11:03 AM

Which makes me also think Legate was the most widely suspected of them and that the NW is someone who's managed to stay fairly uncontroversial.
I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:06 AM

Well that was a rollercoaster! A serious blow to lose the Seer but a very effective Night for the Beast Hunter.

Lommy is right that finding a way to communicate with Greenie in the Dead Thread is a good idea but given the only means of communication is the vote for the Medium, and we only see that in the narration, I think the effectiveness of any such communication can only really come into play toMorrow.

I am also aware that Greenie's sustained suspicion of me makes things look pretty bad for me toDay. The only thing I hope can convince people that I am not a furry evil-doer is that despite the sustained suspicion, her vote went to Legate in the end. Had I been a wolf, and had she dreamed wolf-me and wolf-Legate, why switch her vote? Even though the Form-waggon (and seriously sorry Form!) pretty much knocked anyone else out of the running, I would have been a better bet for the lynch yesterDay over Legate as far as I can tell.

This from Kath seems like it's written from a defensive wolf's perspective - "okay, how do I defend myself tomorrow?" - the bolded especially.

However, that the defense itself is based on Greenie, who didn't reveal until dawn, maybe makes it less likely? I honestly can't decide. I started this post having seen that initial statement of Kath's, thought "oh!", and then thought of the Greenie thing mid-post-construction.

Kath

06-11-2020, 11:07 AM

Since we don't really need "if Nilp is a wolf" option, should we instead make something like:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.
If you don't have a known wolf AND think there's something alarmingly stupid about this way of communication, empower Pitch.

I'm just worried there's something we haven't taken into account, but can't think of what, and I'd like to give the dead the option to opt out from this form of communication/ let them tell us to rethink. Obviously the biggest problem is that we might have to spend toMorrow checking that they don't have a 2nd wolf while it's fairly likely they don't have one and we'd benefit much more from a known innocent.

But I think we can leave that can of worms for toMorrow. Especially if we lynch Kath who's the only relatively likely pre- last night wolf dream of Greenie's. :p
So, I don't like this. Changing up the list late in the day when the Dead Thread may already have been voting/organising based on the previous one I don't think is a good idea. And by putting it in, we now face the possibility that whatever the Dead Thread does, we don't know which list they are basing their response on, as they have no way to tell us that. To me, this is just going to sow confusion.

Obviously I also don't like it because it assumes my guilt. If I'm lynched toDay and the wolves get a kill toNight, which is far more likely than not, the village would be down to 4 innocents and 3 wolves. That is seriously bad odds.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:08 AM

Which makes me also think Legate was the most widely suspected of them and that the NW is someone who's managed to stay fairly uncontroversial.

I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were.

"Fairly uncontroversial" versus "less suspicious than Legate" seems like such a thin hair to split.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:09 AM

So, I don't like this. Changing up the list late in the day when the Dead Thread may already have been voting/organising based on the previous one I don't think is a good idea. And by putting it in, we now face the possibility that whatever the Dead Thread does, we don't know which list they are basing their response on, as they have no way to tell us that. To me, this is just going to sow confusion.

Obviously I also don't like it because it assumes my guilt. If I'm lynched toDay and the wolves get a kill toNight, which is far more likely than not, the village would be down to 4 innocents and 3 wolves. That is seriously bad odds.

3 innocents, 1 cobbler, and 3 wolves. Worse odds - although it seems a bit odd that you wouldn't mention the cobbler here.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:10 AM

Has Pitch NOT been the Cobbler the whole time? Is it Kath?

I will riot. :mad:

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 11:10 AM

It has the smell of "I need a suspicion that's not one of my fellows, let's pick one villager and go through their posts and come up with a reason to suspect them".
This is kind of my read of Mac's suspicion of me, to be honest.

Then you didn't read what I said.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:11 AM

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

This perspective from Mac about the possibility of a wolf receiving the medium empowerment... He's clearly thinking about all things mechanical here. I kind of like it, although I'm not sure I should.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 11:12 AM

Inclined to trust for toDay

Nilp - safe to say we'd have ahd a counter reveal by now if he wasn't the bh
Shasta - I still think BG's death is a point in his favour, otherwise I don't have much (on a quick look at Greenie myself I'm unfortunately leaning towards thinking that her dreams were N1 Lottie, N2 Nilp, N3 Legate so no verification for Shasta's innocence there)
Brinn - the voice of reason in this village. It would kill me inside a little if she was a wolf. Not very worried about it right now, at any rate.

Disinclined to trust

Kath - she still gives an innocent vibe to me with her attitude, but I really think Greenie's suspicion of her might have contributed to her demise, and her connection with Legate looks a little dodgy too
Rikae - Pitch's point about wolves being willing to fake seer in this game certainly works against them, and I don't ike the fabricated-seeming suspicion against me + my earlier suspicions of them still stand
Mac - gives me an innocent vibe, and I like his taking a proactive role in the empowerment things and all, but he does look like a fairly likely Legate packmate + the fact that I was inclined to think him a seer isn't really in his favour when I think of it
Pitch - people have been calling him a cobbler all game, then ignoring him. I know I'm possibly one of the people the most guilty of this myself but it sounds like a nice place for a wolf to be. One could say they could try to get there on purpose, possibly with the help of their packmates. There's just something very wrong about how "detached" Pitch feels from the rest of the game.
Sally - has been under my radar largely. It's interesting how all kinds of analyses toDay suddenly subtly point at her. Since this hasn't, however, resulted in actual cases against her, it feels less like an orchestrated wolf effort against Sally and more like a collective awakening about someone being dodgy.

edit: xed with everyone

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:12 AM

then you didn't read what i said.

k.

Kath

06-11-2020, 11:13 AM

3 innocents, 1 cobbler, and 3 wolves. Worse odds - although it seems a bit odd that you wouldn't mention the cobbler here.
I was thinking in terms of the wolves getting a straight win. As in once the numbers are even the wolves have the victory. But actually yeah, a coordinated vote from the wolves and the cobbler each successive Day from toMorrow, if an innocent gets lynched toDay and the Night kill happens ... Oh dear. :(

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:14 AM

Sally - has been under my radar largely. It's interesting how all kinds of analyses toDay suddenly subtly point at her. Since this hasn't, however, resulted in actual cases against her, it feels less like an orchestrated wolf effort against Sally and more like a collective awakening about someone being dodgy.

While I don't quite trust you yet, Lommy, this is beautifully worded. I think the wolves will probably be more orchestrated today than on any other day, because this is the Day that they can win off.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 11:18 AM

Not sure I agree with this characterisation. I think I've scarcely discussed game mechanics or "other not-directly-productive stuff"! Also, not sure why "cheerful" is a bad thing in your book (or supposedly out of character for me). What I do agree with is my votes being sloppy. This game with its very little evidence in any direction has been trying on me - but don't worry, I think I'm already much wiser toDay. That being said - on the risk of falliong into the trap of knee-jerkism, I don't like this quote from Rikae one bit. It has the smell of "I need a suspicion that's not one of my fellows, let's pick one villager and go through their posts and come up with a reason to suspect them".

I'm very busy toDay, unfortunately, or I'd go and collect all the game mechanics or general how-to-werewolf conversations. I'm not against those in themselves, but a high proportion of them has the advantage of taking up a lot of real estate, looking very engaged, without ruffling feathers and leaving trails.

And the cheerfulness too - it's not that it's universally suspicious, but that it seems out of keeping with the overall tone of conversation at the time and the fortunes of the village (what you took issue with in my "epic!" comment, in fact). I suppose it could be unrelated to the game entirely, but it contributed to the overall glib, slippery impression.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:19 AM

Day 1

Clearly has not dreamed of Kath at this point.

Could she have dreamed of an evil Pitch? Considering she also speculates that he could be the cobbler, I'm guessing no.

Note: She does end up voting Pitch.
It's possible Greenie dreamed of an innocent Shasta, Lommy, Rikae, or Mac. But considering she singles out Lottie, I suspect she was her Night 1 dream.

Day 2

If she dreamed of anyone from here, my guess would be Shasta, but it's not clear.

If Greenie did dream of Legate, it did not happen on Night 2.

Shasta looks like he may be the most likely Night 2 dream based on this post.

Could she dreamt of an evil Kath? It's possible, but if she had, I don't know that she would've wavered between Nog and Kath like she did.

Day 3

Another innocent Shasta clue. I keep thinking she must've dreamed of Legate on Night 3, but she still remains very suspicious of Kath so I wonder if maybe she was a dream after all.

Okay, with that last post, maybe she didn't dream of Kath after all.

Brinn's guesses for Greenie dreams:

Night 1: Lottie
Night 2: Shasta
Night 3: Legate

If that's right, then it makes me feel good about Shasta. Unfortunately that would mean her other dreams are dead which isn't as helpful (hopefully we can get an idea of her Night 4 dream with toDay's medium vote).

It's possible she dreamt of Kath, but I find it less likely. Still - it doesn't make Kath look very good since she did suspect her for two straight Days. Could the wolves have worried that Greenie dreamed of two wolves? I will need to take a look at Kath's posts along with Legate, though that will need to wait for a few hours at least.

I think it's possible, from the quotes in Brinn's posts, that Greenie realized she was looking a little too much like a Seer and wanted to try and throw the wolves off - I think an N3 Kath dream is possible. It would mean she didn't dream of Legate N3, though - in which case, why vote Legate over Kath? Hmm. Maybe I've talked myself out of that, actually.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 11:19 AM

I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were. Fair point.

Kath - I don't think it's too late to change the list, since everyone seems to be able to be around at the deadline. AND anyway the edit I suggested is very minor, ony relevant if a) Nilp is a wolf, or b) the dead think our system sucks, and I think a) is practically impossible and b) is hopefully unlikely.

My first thought toDay was that you're a wolf, but I agree we can't jump into conclusions like that. You are right that we can't really afford lynching an innocent toDay. (Which incidentally makes me want to stab at some direction that's NOT an easy wagon for the wolves to jump on. Ie rather a less controversial villager who's nonetheless suspicious.)

edit: xed with Rikae and Shasta

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 11:20 AM

Why would you be disappointed that he wasn't the NW? That's a good thing for us.
Of course it is! I meant disappointed because the Night kills all pointing to him would have made much more sense if he'd actually been the NW and they were really trying to get him lynched so he could haunt the remaining Gifted. Disappointed at the lack of narrative logic, I should say.

I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:21 AM

I'm very busy toDay, unfortunately, or I'd go and collect all the game mechanics or general how-to-werewolf conversations. I'm not against those in themselves, but a high proportion of them has the advantage of taking up a lot of real estate, looking very engaged, without ruffling feathers and leaving trails.

And the cheerfulness too - it's not that it's universally suspicious, but that it seems out of keeping with the overall tone of conversation at the time and the fortunes of the village (what you took issue with in my "epic!" comment, in fact). I suppose it could be unrelated to the game entirely, but it contributed to the overall glib, slippery impression.

No snark intended, but weren't you accused of being too cheerful yourself at some point previous, Rikae?

Kath

06-11-2020, 11:25 AM

Fair point.

Kath - I don't think it's too late to change the list, since everyone seems to be able to be around at the deadline. AND anyway the edit I suggested is very minor, ony relevant if a) Nilp is a wolf, or b) the dead think our system sucks, and I think a) is practically impossible and b) is hopefully unlikely.

My first thought toDay was that you're a wolf, but I agree we can't jump into conclusions like that. You are right that we can't really afford lynching an innocent toDay. (Which incidentally makes me want to stab at some direction that's NOT an easy wagon for the wolves to jump on. Ie rather a less controversial villager who's nonetheless suspicious.)

edit: xed with Rikae and Shasta
I still think it needs to be absolutely clear to the Dead Thread which list. Because otherwise there will be so much leeway toMorrow for people to say - oh well maybe the Dead Thread were using the second list, so that means x.

If Nilp being a wolf/not being a wolf is the issue, the original list was entirely able to deal with that. If Greenie dreamt of another wolf we will know from who is voted the Medium. If she didn't dream of another wolf, we'll know from the lack of Medium. I think that's plenty clear.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:28 AM

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1

Hmm...could go either way here.

I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2

I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.

Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3

His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee! :D

I don't know if I agree with thinking Lommy and Rikae look better from Legate calling them innocent. That this pack didn't decide to bus the NW to activate their powers says to me that they're looking to stay cohesive and not really wolf-on-wolf.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 11:29 AM

As there still seems to be some confusion on the Day 1 fishleather boots thing:

It was pretty apparent to me that Pitch was trying to suggest Form (the "fishy" individual) was a cobbler, but I wondered if he was actually a wolf trying to connect with the cobbler ("shopping for boots"). His response made it look less likely to me.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:29 AM

I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.

Kath

06-11-2020, 11:29 AM

Of course it is! I meant disappointed because the Night kills all pointing to him would have made much more sense if he'd actually been the NW and they were really trying to get him lynched so he could haunt the remaining Gifted. Disappointed at the lack of narrative logic, I should say.

I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.
I get this to a point, but if Greenie has dreamt a wolf, communicating that with us is surely the most important thing to do. Then that wolf gets lynched toMorrow. Unless by that point the baddies have unassailable numbers control over the lynch in which case the village is done for anyway.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 11:30 AM

Rikae

06-11-2020, 11:30 AM

No snark intended, but weren't you accused of being too cheerful yourself at some point previous, Rikae?

By Lommy. As I mentioned in the post you're quoting, in the quote, in fact.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 11:32 AM

I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.Can we really afford not learning it if Greenie still has a known wolf?

Besides, the dead need a CONSENSUS to empower a medium. That means that if we vote for the lynchee last minute like we tend to do, they can't probably switch their votes fast enough to direct the lynch if necessary. At most, they could cancel the choosing of empowerment which would result in them communicating they have no known wolves, which they anyway might not have.

Of course a whole another can of worms would be is it preferable to agree on voting early and let the dead empower someone's vote with the knowledge they have but I see that as harder to orchestrate among the living + potential waste of seer dream (say the dead empower Boro who votes Fea. Does this mean Boro is innocent, or Fea is guilty? We can't really conclude anything from that, AND i's no even that likely they can change the outcome of a lynch away from a known innocent/ towards a known wolf.)

Gonna x with a bunch again...

Kath

06-11-2020, 11:34 AM

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 11:35 AM

I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.
Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 12:27 PM

Phew looks like this is working again.

Boro, are the living allowed to view the post count (who posted) on the dead thread?

Kath

06-11-2020, 12:31 PM

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.
But this relies on somebody actually voting the person Greenie potentially dreamed of. If nobody does, then the Dead Thread would have to go with a no-vote. So it means no useful empowerment AND no information on a wolf if Greenie did dream of one.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 12:34 PM

That is to say - it's entirely possible Greenie didn't dream of another wolf, which through Mac' list would result in no medium vote, which is a good-controlled vote we're missing out on. I don't like that - and I do think that's something a Macwolf would consider.

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

Guys... there's a potential known wolf waiting for us to be communicated from the dead. Knowing who that is by far outweighs the power of one single vote. And yeah, we will only know toMorrow, so what?

In either mine or Lommy's way, the medium vote is no longer used as a vote, but still has that effect and could potentially mess things up, that's true though. Maybe we can all make our voting intentions clear, with +- or otherwise, and then have an actual vote that is not close enough for the medium's vote to matter.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 12:38 PM

Does anyone else find the way Brinn came out early in the day toDay with sort of ... boss lady energy (not meant in any insulting way, Brinn, actually pretty cool) and took control of the discourse a little worrying?

Particularly how she moved Shasta more firmly into the "known-ish-innocent" category than the situation warranted, and treated Kath as a dreamed wolf without a lot of evidence. And treating Lommy as innocent based on her being in Legate's green zone? Now, Legate is perfectly capable of a double-bluff, and Brinn, too, for that matter. The mutual trust between Brinn and Lommy doesn't seem warranted if they're both innocents. We can't afford to ignore anyone now.

Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.

That's why it was my preference yesterDay. That said, if I had to do a prevote right now I'd honestly have no idea who to vote for. Greenie's posts left more questions than answers for me and at this point I think anyone, except probably Nilp, could be a wolf.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 12:42 PM

What if the wolves are alphabetically adjacent?

I could totally see a cobblerMac calculating the likelihood of that ... I'm guessing it's high.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 12:45 PM

But this relies on somebody actually voting the person Greenie potentially dreamed of. If nobody does, then the Dead Thread would have to go with a no-vote. So it means no useful empowerment AND no information on a wolf if Greenie did dream of one.
Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust.

Guys... there's a potential known wolf waiting for us to be communicated from the dead. Knowing who that is by far outweighs the power of one single vote. And yeah, we will only know toMorrow, so what?

In either mine or Lommy's way, the medium vote is no longer used as a vote, but still has that effect and could potentially mess things up, that's true though. Maybe we can all make our voting intentions clear, with +- or otherwise, and then have an actual vote that is not close enough for the medium's vote to matter.
Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 12:49 PM

Because we need to lynch a wolf toDay, not toMorrow. ToMorrow may be too late. If we mislynch toDay and the Ranger fails to foil the Night kill it'll be 3:1:3 toMorrow - in which case the Wolves could just come out and call on the cobbler's support to lynch anybody they like.
I'm getting really really suspicious of Mac right now.

The could not, because the dead thread would be able to override them (depending on vote timing).

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 12:50 PM

Kath

06-11-2020, 12:50 PM

Why would it mean a no-vote? They can always empower a known innocent (Greenie should be able to give them a few by now), or even just someone they trust
Yes they could. But, again, the innocents don't know anything. So trusting their vote may not help the village, and so the Dead Thread wouldn't necessarily want to empower them.

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...

Kath

06-11-2020, 12:53 PM

And constant changing of a plan can only cause confusion. We now have two lists, suggestions of pre voting, maybe the Dead Thread can empower an innocent voter. It's all over the place! Perfect way to stop the Seer being able to communicate a potential known wolf. :rolleyes:

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 12:58 PM

I agree this is a mess. We're so focused on strategy for the Dead Thread, that we've sort of lost focus on evaluating the players in the living thread. I'm sure there's a wolf among this talk, but I'm not sure who.

I have to run to a meeting, but will be back later.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:01 PM

Didn't we kind of establish early on that we need to have a plan well before we get to the deadline, so that early-voting dead people know what to expect?

We are really screwing with that right now.

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

Yhgtbfkm.

We have three hours, better now than later/never. Okay, alternative suggestion:

If night 4 dream = innocent, no vote
If night 4 dream = wolf, as follows:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitch is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Brinniel.
If Sally is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Shasta is a wolf, empower Sally.
If Nilp is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Lommy is a wolf, empower Rikae.

Or some other arrangement that pairs people who are unlikely to be wolves together.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 01:02 PM

The could not, because the dead thread would be able to override them (depending on vote timing).
Right. Thank Goddess for small favours.

And I find it very enlightening that those who are criticizing right now (Pitch, Shasta, Rikae) are not offering any alternatives, therefore essentially foregoing the knowledge of one seer dream.

What about 'If you have a known wolf, empower a person suspecting them'? This wouldn't just tell us about their lupinity for toMorrow, but actually help us to lynch them toDay.
As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.':p

Yhgtbfkm.
Wrong game. Shadow over Innsmouth was 10 years ago.

As I recall, the innocents don't know anything was a refrain of yours last game ...
Different song, different refrain.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:03 PM

What I liked about alphabetical order is that the alphabet is essentially random. Any custom order could come from a wolf. Maybe Nilp should make one up?

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:05 PM

As in, 'If Mac is a wolf, empower Pitch.':p

Because everybody only has one single suspect. :rolleyes: And what if the one in question is not suspected at all? It would be especially good to know in that case!

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 01:08 PM

I agree it's pretty weird that we agreed we need a plan, and everybody seemed to be okay with Mac's, and then suddenly people start questioning it a few hours before the deadline? If we make it into toMorrow, we really need the known wolf if there is any. It's not like the numbers are going to be great then, either.

So what if we stick to the list and make a plan b?

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?

edit: xed with everyone after Kath

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 01:08 PM

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 01:10 PM

What I liked about alphabetical order is that the alphabet is essentially random. Any custom order could come from a wolf. Maybe Nilp should make one up?Ditto. I don't see a reason why Rikae's subjective interpretation is better than randomness. Rikae, are you perhaps making shoes for a living?

Kath

06-11-2020, 01:13 PM

I liked alphabetical because it didn't allow for any bias on the part of the person making up the list. Yes, a wolf-Mac might know that two wolves are alphabetically linked, but it still relies on Greenie having actually dreamt of that particular person who links alphabetically. I mean if the Dead Thread were that worried about that, they could just go for a no vote regardless.

I just ... concrete information would be the most useful.

I find myself in agreement with Mac and in opposition to particularly Pitch and a bit less Rikae and Shasta. That kind of naturally pushes me to feeling ok about Mac and not good about Pitch.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:14 PM

Ditto. I don't see a reason why Rikae's subjective interpretation is better than randomness. Rikae, are you perhaps making shoes for a living?

Mac wanted suggestions. I said "or some other order that pairs people who aren't likely to be wolves together". Do you disagree that those people are less likely packmates, or am I just cobblerish for sticking my neck out and giving a concrete example?

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 01:15 PM

Say, if the dead didn't vote in agreement to our list, one of the dead innocent makes their post count some number we agree on (33? 66?) until one of us notices it and points it out on the game thread? Or if we aren't allowed to read the post counts, say we pick one of the dead and an arbitrary time they're likely to be around timezonewise (say Lottie and one hour after dl toMorrow) and tell the dead that if they didn't vote according to the list, make sure Lottiehas the last post at one hour after the dl toMorrow until someone has pointed it out on this thread? And if a few minutes past one hour after the dl the last post keeps oscillating between Lottie and Legate , we know the dead wolf is just trolling.

TL;DR: let's stick to Mac's list and find a way for the dead to communicate if they decided to ignore it and instead empower in a way to direct the lynch toDay. Simple?
No.[\burrahobbit]

Kath

06-11-2020, 01:16 PM

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:16 PM

Back and thinking we should use the original list for toDay so we don't muck anything up for the dead thread.

I'm all for Nilp making a list though! At least we'd know he didn't have any ulterior motives.

x'd with Lommy

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 01:20 PM

I said "or some other order that pairs people who aren't likely to be wolves together". Do you disagree that those people are less likely packmates, or am I just cobblerish for sticking my neck out and giving a concrete example? To be fair, I have no idea who's more or less likely to be fellow wolves together. You and Pitch seems unlikely to me, and I agree with you about Brinn/Kath. But otherwise? No idea. I don't see your list as being significantly better than Mac's, and I don't trust you enough to take your word for there being credit to all those combos.

Furthermore I think this discussion is a diversion from the fact that we DO. NEED. TO. LYNCH. A. WOLF. TODAY. so personally I'm gonna go with Mac's list, suggest the dead thread do the same, and return to the question of plan B in case the DT don't want to follow a list once Boro replied my question about post count viewing.

So really. Anyone else who's innocent, I strongly urge you to settle for Mac's list despite its possible flaws and ditch this discussion and focus your energies on finding wolves. We're getting too sidetracked.

edit: xed with everyone

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:21 PM

There are 84 possible wolf packs, 55 of which have some alphabetical adjacency. Math has spoken.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:21 PM

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:23 PM

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 01:23 PM

So ... you're for using the first list, but having multiple other lists floating around for no reason than to muddle the message? Mmmkay.

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.

x'd since the post I quoted

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:26 PM

I should add that the probabilities are the same for whatever other order one were to come up with.

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:27 PM

I mean, I'm less and less trustful of anything you're posting, so technically yes, but not really.

I'm saying let's go with what was first presented for TODAY, and continue discussing options for toMorrow. What I said was pretty clear.

x'd since the post I quoted

Tomorrow, this whole discussion won't be relevant. There won't be any more seer dreams after the Night 4 one.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:27 PM

They're not, because another order wouldn't be random. Not all packs are equally likely at this point!
True, but who would you trust enough to make one up? We don't have the time to do it by committee. The only one would be Nilp, and he's apparently not around.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:28 PM

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:28 PM

People who don't want the communication to work: Cobbler and any wolf who is likely to be Greenie's target.

A communication method that misuses the dead vote could get an ordo lynched and essentially win the wolves the game, but okay. :rolleyes:

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:30 PM

We're getting closer to the point where all this becomes moot. We need to decide now.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:32 PM

*mutterandthisiswhyiwantedtodothisfirstthingmutter *

And I saw the problem with it then but was hesitant to bring it up for exactly this reason, any discussion gets accused of "muddling". But since I'm not the only one who saw a problem I thought maybe we could improve it some and avoid the drawback I saw (the alphabetical list pairs people I think are likely to be wolves together, in fact).

It wouldn't be muddling if we'd clearly highlight an official list at a reasonable hour, but at this point we are running out of time to do that, and most of the delay comes from people getting upset the discussion is happening at all!

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 01:35 PM

Fine then. This is not worth arguing about from my point of view.

DEAD PEEPS - USE RIKAE'S LIST!

Kath

06-11-2020, 01:36 PM

Yeah ok let's go for consensus. If the Dead Thread hate the list they can just vote no Medium.

Rikae's list it is.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 01:37 PM

It's better to use something we already had standing earlier in the day. Nilp seemed okay with Mac's list. No one has really given any good reasons why the list wouldn't work. Yes, maybe Mac is manipulating things because he's a wolf. That could be true of anyone except Nilp. The list is alphabetical, not randomly organized, so I think it's a fair list to use for this purpose. If we want to get more information from the dead thread toMorrow, we can use a different list. I don't care. But let's not change what we're doing when the dead thread may not be able to adjust to a change.

x'd since my last :rolleyes:

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 01:47 PM

Look, I just think with 5 good votes to 4 evil ones right now, using the Medium vote for information only could be what tips the scale here. If there's a way to do both (info AND as vote strength) I'm all for it.

I do think anyone wanting to have a "no vote" is misguided at best and wolvish at worst. We do not have that luxury.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 01:48 PM

Oh dear ... Sally has a point.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 01:50 PM

It isn't overstating it to say that we're in a position where if a good votes another good we straight-up lose.

Kath

06-11-2020, 01:50 PM

So I think Pitch actually might be the Cobbler after all given his posting.

Mac is on much the same lines as me which is making me inclined to trust him.

Lommy is driving me insane and that feels like normal so I guess I feel ok about her.

Nilp I am going on trust as the BH.

Leaving me with Brinn, Rikae, sally and Shasta.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 01:54 PM

Well, we've made our bed, now let's lie in it. I hope the dead thread can make it work, or we're all potentially very dead. :eek:

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 01:56 PM

Seriously dudes. What the [censored]. Can you Rikae and Mac agree on a list since you got us into this mess. Please. I'm gonna wash my hands of this.

I'm in the middle of writing an analysis about everybody's interactions toDay (which I will post when I'm done) and I feel like I'm having a bit of revelation. Could you Mac, Rikae and Pitch please stop squabbling if you're all innocent (I understand one of you might be the cobbler and intentionally messing around) and answer me (Kath can also answer, I almost trust you now funnily enough :p and hey Nilp, sure if you're around!) but:

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Thoughts?

edit: xed with the last 3 posts

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 01:58 PM

Well, I currently think Mac and Kath are evil together and Sally feels good. So there's that.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 01:59 PM

Sally

Nothing really from her on Day 1, which tells us, well nothing.

Day 2

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler
This is really just vague.

#261 She states that Nog seems innocent and sticks to that enough to later say her vote is to save him. Could go either way, but it reminds me of when Hui stuck his neck out for me last game.

#263 Agrees with Mac on his discomfort with Legate. I already mentioned this makes me doubt all three are wolves.

Votes Kath with no reason behind it. She later stated that she thought Formy was the cobbler, but this would've been an easy way for a wolf to escape the two main bandwagons.

Day 3

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

Lommy suspected me and therefore must be punished! Just kidding. I feel a bit better about her toDay, and though it's selfish, the way she explained her "suspicions" of me (rather, her lack of innocent feelings) strikes me as an innocent Lommy. My suspicion of Form coupled with her vote for him helps, of course.

As for the other Finn sister, I don't have a good read on Greenie at all. The same is true of Shasta, Nilp, and Rikae. I need to work on that.

Then there's the other side of my suspicion.

Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people, because yesterDay could have been an extremely smooth operation to save his hide, or Kath's for that matter. Form and Kath. Form and Kath are my top suspects. Let's be fair and not single anyone out.

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac. I can't find the post where I talked about Mac. I wonder if I ever submitted it?
I do find it strange that she thinks me innocent but might re-evaluate it if Formy is a wolf - then goes on to say he's the most suspicious. With that last sentence I indeed think if she's a wolf, then it's more likely Mac is innocent. I doubt she'd group two packmates together. She does go back and forth on Kath, so maybe wolf-on-wolf?

I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.

Votes for Formy.

Day 4

Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.
Don't like her first paragraph at all. It's like, "Look, I was right about him all along." But from what I can tell, she only ever mildly suspected Legate. Still pondering the Sally/Kath pack feasibility.

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.
I know that some say missing parts of the rules could be a sign of innocence, but a wolf can make mistakes too...or it could be faked. So this tells me nothing.

Conclusions: I think Sally is suspicious. Unlikely Sally/Mac pack, but unclear about others.

I may look at Kath before the end of the Day, but we'll see if I have time.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 01:59 PM

The idea of Rikae (now suspecting strongly because of all of the shenanigans) and Mac (already suspected for quite some time now) being wolves together seems a little off to me. I'm not saying Boro would reroll if they came up together, but it would also give them an accidental advantage to be in the same house.

I actually feel almost better about Kath toDay, though I think part of that is because of the other nonsense going on. Still toward the top of my list, but I'd be happy to lynch Mac toDay instead. Then again, both could be wolves! That would be nice, as I'd have had three out of four pegged.

Shasta and Nilp won't be receiving my vote, nor I think will Lommy. Someone would have to come up with a very strong case indeed for me to vote for her.

Pitch is always an enigma for me. If people are right and he's the cobbler, we can't afford to lynch him toDay anyway, so going off other people's suspicions, I'm not inclined to vote for him either.

x'd since my last

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:01 PM

Hrm. That last post of Lommy's - I like the washing of the hands, but that conclusion... oof.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 02:06 PM

sallly! Really! When Mac himself hath spoken, what further need to belabour the point? Who's manipulating and obfuscating now?:mad:

The alphabet is as random as anything (unlike, say, Tengwar and Angerthas;)), which is why Mac's proposal to tie toDay's Medium empowerment to something as random as which player follows which in the alphabet rather than concrete suspicions, likely or unlikely pack constellations etc. didn't and doesn't sit right with me. He's backpedalled now, but it still may have been an attempt by a wolf to manipulate the empowerment while looking super helpful. And if this is so, I could see either of Kath and Lommy as his packmate and the other as the cobbler.

That said, I can live with Rikae's list.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:09 PM

Okay *stops washing hands*

LET'S GO WITH RIKAE'S LIST THEN AND STOP DEBATING.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 02:11 PM

sallly! Really! When Mac himself hath spoken, what further need to belabour the point? Who's manipulating and obfuscating now?:mad:

I was on a conference call and had the post open, so neener. ;)

Who who the fork are we even lynching?

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:14 PM

Can you Rikae and Mac agree on a list since you got us into this mess.

Really?

I tried to fix this mess. Rikae at least was constructive. Pitch and Shasta were criticizing things without offering an alternative!

I don't want to be kneejerk and say one is a cobbler and one is a wolf, but one is a cobbler and one is a wolf! :p

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone?

Shasta very much. Sally maybe. Brinn I find unlikely. I think you're too quick to discard Pitch as a cobbler.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:16 PM

Absolutely not.

++Macalaure

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:16 PM

Okay more spoilers from my upcoming posts:

I'm getting really worried about Brinn. (This is gonna slightly rephrase something Rikae said earlier, I believe, but I just made the same observation myself.) She has spent lots of energy analysing things toDay and whether she's looking at who said what about Legate, or what Legate said about others, or randomly analysing Pitchwife, the same people come off as guilty every single time: Kath, Mac and Pitch, with an occasional Rikae or Sally thrown in.

You would think an innocent's posts would have more variation and genuine flipflopping/hesitation, but Brinn seems pretty certain.

Which makes me think Brinn's a wolf trying to lay grounds for voting and make sure a not-wolf gets lynched.

Which would likely make Pitch, Kath and Mac innocent, and Shasta whom Brinn scarcely mentions except to say Greenie maybe dreamt of innocent!Shasta a likely fellow wolf. The remaining wolf would then be either Sally or Rikae.

edit: xed with Shasta and Mac

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 02:18 PM

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Thoughts?
I dunno. Shasta has his voting record speaking against him, but his posts toDay ring innocent to me. Sally is always difficult to read for me, so I wouldn't rule anything out. I admit I haven't looked near enough at Brinn so far to come to a qualified conclusion.

Kath

06-11-2020, 02:19 PM

I quite like the irony in Lommy, who was the first person to modify the list, washing her hands of the whole thing and claiming everybody else were the ones to mess it up. :rolleyes:

It's still between Brinn, Rikae, sally and Shasta for me. That's not in order of suspicion as I now need to go look at them.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:24 PM

I wasn't criticizing anything, I was giving a warning.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:24 PM

Sheesh Kath, I suggested a small edit something like 6h before the deadline. Absolutely different from these last hours' mess.

That vote of Shasta's I'm not too happy with. We cannot afford to mislynch toDay. I think an innocent would not be so quick to vote someone toDay without weighing their decision.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:26 PM

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:29 PM

I wasn't criticizing anything, I was giving a warning.

Without a suggestion on how to fix it, that amounts to the same.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 02:30 PM

I have to vote very soon, unfortunately. I have a break coming up shortly, but then I will need to buckle down and get some stuff done at work.

x'd with Mac

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:30 PM

Without a suggestion on how to fix it, that amounts to the same.

In your opinion, one has to have a solution on-hand to bring attention to a problem?

Rikae

06-11-2020, 02:31 PM

Brinn / Shasta / Sally pack, anyone? Nicely flying under our radars the whole time? Scarcely mentioning each other? It suddenly makes a lot of sense to me.

Any of them could be wolves but I don't see any particular case for all together (have been considering Brinn/Lommy/? or Brinn/Shasta/?).

I guess a list:

Red:

Nobody. Everyone at this point has some non-wolfish points in their favor. I'm really worried about voting wrong today.

Yellow:

Brinn - like I said before, I find the way she seemed to be steering the village early toDay a bit unnerving - a little too sure about Lommy and Shasta.

Lommy - also unnerving, was partially her trust of Brinn which, when I mentioned it, she dropped, which kind of makes it worse.

Sally - Something about the way she backed off after questioning seems more cautious than her usual self, plus I feel like she's been getting suspiciously little attention, as though she was a known innocent, which she is not.

Pitch - Quite touchy, and I don't remember him being that way in past games.

Yellow-green:

Shasta - I do consider him a possible innocent dream, but also quite possible he is not, and I have actually been getting cobblerish vibes from him. It was weird how he went after me for something based on a quote that had the answer in it - I'm thinking, he knew what he wanted to say before he read it and didn't read it.

Kath - Like I said, I think Greenie's survival points to her not being a wolf. Not 100% but it's something to go on at least.

Mac - he thought I was the seer. I mean, it could be a bluff, but it looked genuine to me.

Green:

Nilp: If there were another real BH I assume they would have stepped up.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:32 PM

Okay, Lommy/Mac for sure. Who's the third, do we think? Kath?I wanted to say "I'd much rather be on the same team with Kath and Mac than in the wolf team you have with Brinn" but I'm afraid such a statement might make a subject of ridicule when the game is over.

To be fair I really am not sure at all who is what and I'm suffering.

But I obviously trust Nilp. Then probably Kath, then Mac and Rikae. Sally and Pitchwife are ?? to me. Shasta and Brinn look the worst at the moment.

It's interesting how this seems to be splitting into some kind of camps. Innocents keep your eyes open. Fur will start to show soon.

edit: xed with the last 4

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:32 PM

Rikae - I didn't go after you, I asked you a question. You answered. I was satisfied with that answer, so I moved on.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:32 PM

In your opinion, one has to have a solution on-hand to bring attention to a problem?

Honestly, if the alternative is an even bigger problem, then yes. Anything but nothing.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:34 PM

I wanted to say "I'd much rather be on the same team with Kath and Mac than in the wolf team you have with Brinn" but I'm afraid such a statement might make a subject of ridicule when the game is over.

To be fair I really am not sure at all who is what and I'm suffering.

But I obviously trust Nilp. Then probably Kath, then Mac and Rikae. Sally and Pitchwife are ?? to me. Shasta and Brinn look the worst at the moment.

It's interesting how this seems to be splitting into some kind of camps. Innocents keep your eyes open. Fur will start to show soon.

edit: xed with the last 4

I get me looking the wurst (ha!) to you as I've made myself your probable designated mis-execute, but Brinn? Nah. She looks the best of anyone, IMO.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:35 PM

Honestly, if the alternative is an even bigger problem, then yes. Anything but nothing.

So I should have kept quiet about an issue I think could lose us the game if I don't have an ironclad way to fix it?

Absolutely not.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 02:35 PM

Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuys. We've decided how to communicate with the dead. Drop the subject for now so we can make a correct lynch.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:36 PM

That discussion is nothing but a distraction at this point.

If Mac and I were both good, my vote would have been jumped on by now. It's safe to say one of us is evil, at this point.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 02:39 PM

Well, I trust Shasta. Not necessarily his judgement (on everyone at least), but I agree with him here, so let's put my money where my big ol' mouth is. The odds of Mac being a wolf outweigh my current suspicions of Kath.

++Mac

x'd since my last

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:39 PM

I don't like the mounting suspicion of Brinniel too much and will not add my vote to it, just so y'all are aware.

And Shasta, come on now...
Anything but nothing
ironclad way to fix it
:rolleyes:

If Mac and I were both good, my vote would have been jumped on by now.That I actually agree with. :rolleyes:

(edit: crossed with Sally, now that's just great there...)

Rikae

06-11-2020, 02:40 PM

Nilp: If there were another real BH I assume they would have stepped up.

If the cobbler were smart, they would have done it and gotten Nilp lynched. Guess we don't have a very bright cobbler.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:41 PM

Gonna have a look at this as the wolves are unlikely to go wolf-on-wolf toDay if they can avoid it. Ignoring Nilp because I have no reason to doubt his claim.

Brinn
- analyses Shasta as innocent based on Greenie's posts
- suspects Kath based on Legate's guilt
- explains Sally's posts to Rikae
- also thinks Rikae is leaning innocent based on Legate's posts
- lists Kath, Mac, Pitch and Sally as possible wolves
- asks Mac his interpretation about Greenie's dreams
- suspects Pitch, Kath, Mac and Sally based on what they said about Legate
- chooses to analyse Pitch. Comes out with the suspicion of Pitch/Kath or Pitch/Rikae

Rikae
- mentions Shasta and herself and Nilp as possible innocent dreams; vaguely exonerates Shasta based on this
- questions Sally aggressively
- thinks Kath looks innocent because a wolfpack with Kath would have killed Greenie sooner
- lists Mac, Pitch, Sally and Brinn as possible wolves based on what they said about Legate
- points out Brinn's boss lady moves and finds her conviction of Shasta's innocence and Kath's guilt worrisome

Sally
- suspects Kath
- wary of Rikae but not in a committed way
- side note: was confused about the beast hunter rules. Would a wolf really be?? And would a wolf Sally pretend to be? I think no and yes.

Mac
- undecided about Rikae and Sally based on Form interactions
- suspicious of Shasta and to a lesser degree of Pitch and Kath based on Form interactions
- trusting of Brinn based on Form interactions
- admits to hoping Shasta would not come out looking innocent in an analysis
- says Shasta and Rikae are possible innocent dreams of Greenie
- says Kath is a possible guilty dream of Greenie's but dismisses the thought immediately
- corrects Brinn misquoting him
- says if the wolf pack includes Kath then they treated her and Legate differently
- accuses Shasta of lack of attentivity/ reading comprehension (ok this sounds harsh and it wasn't, but that's the drift)

Kath
- doesn't understand why people (for example Brinn) keep associating her with Pitch
- thinks Mac, Sally and Rikae most likely co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Shasta and Pitch look like relatively plausible co-wolves of Legate
- thinks Brinn looks fairly innocent based on Legate-interactions
- discusses the numbers with Shasta

Pitch
- wary of Rikae's seer pretension
- criticises Mac's communication scheme

Shasta
- thinks Mac's suspicion of him looks fabricated, disagrees with him nitpicking over my post
- says Kath sounds like a defensive wolf
- thinks Kath might be the cobbler instead of Pitch
- originally likes Mac's voting model, then does a legate 180
- flipflops on whether Kath is a possible seer-dreamed wolf
- questions Rikae's suspicions of me
- disagrees with Rikae about Brinn looking innocent over Legate's posts

Ok this is end of page 14 and I've got to stop here, runing out of time. But everything after that should be in recent memory...

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:42 PM

Did I just say something about Sally-Shasta? :Merisu:

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 02:43 PM

And with that I have to go for now.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 02:44 PM

I'm getting really worried about Brinn. (This is gonna slightly rephrase something Rikae said earlier, I believe, but I just made the same observation myself.) She has spent lots of energy analysing things toDay and whether she's looking at who said what about Legate, or what Legate said about others, or randomly analysing Pitchwife, the same people come off as guilty every single time: Kath, Mac and Pitch, with an occasional Rikae or Sally thrown in.

You would think an innocent's posts would have more variation and genuine flipflopping/hesitation, but Brinn seems pretty certain.
You know Lommy, not everyone flip flops like you. :p

I've stated before that I think there are at least two wolves among Pitch, Sally, Mac, and Kath. So why wouldn't I analyze them as opposed to those I think are more likely innocent? I started with Pitch and Sally because I find them most suspicious. I'd love to get to the other two, but I'm not sure I have time. With toDay's events, I'm thinking I should be taking a look at you too.

Shasta - I do consider him a possible innocent dream, but also quite possible he is not, and I have actually been getting cobblerish vibes from him.
I believe if the seer dreams the cobbler, they will only see them as an ordo. So both is possible.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 02:44 PM

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:45 PM

I'm very wary of Pitch who has scarcely taken any sides toDay in anything. Except what voting system makes sense or not. An innocent would at least be trying to find the wolves.

edit: xed with Rikae and Brinn

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:45 PM

- says Shasta and Rikae are possible innocent dreams of Greenie
- says Kath is a possible guilty dream of Greenie's but dismisses the thought immediately
Just quick since I feel misrepresented here.

Yes, Shasta and Rikae are possible, but far less likely than Lottie and Nilp.
And I was going along posts as I wrote mine, and for a while Kath looked like a possible dreamt-of wolf, but as I continued I started to find it unlikely.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:46 PM

You know Lommy, not everyone flip flops like you. :pAny innocent should reconsider their opinions toDay because there might not be toMorrow.

edit: xed with Mac

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:46 PM

Between Shasta and Mac I trust Shasta less, but really, they could both be innocent and I would really rather go for someone from my "yellow" list.

Shasta's point doesn't really stand given how Sally (more suspicious than either of them in my eyes) jumped on his vote.

Happened after I made that point, as it stands. If Sally was a wolf and Mac not, she could have just said so in any case.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:47 PM

I was going to vote for Shasta, who is suspected by some but not all, but now you're forcing me into self-preservation mode and I don't like it.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:47 PM

Just quick since I feel misrepresented here.

Yes, Shasta and Rikae are possible, but far less likely than Lottie and Nilp.
And I was going along posts as I wrote mine, and for a while Kath looked like a possible dreamt-of wolf, but as I continued I started to find it unlikely.Sorry if I summarised it badly, what you say is how I read it. But I left Lottie and Nilp out of the summary bc they're not relevant right now.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 02:48 PM

chooses to analyse Pitch. Comes out with the suspicion of Pitch/Kath or Pitch/Rikae
You misinterpreted as I said Pitch/Rikae were an unlikely combo.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:48 PM

I am suspicious of Sally too, especially after that vote, but - would a wolf really not know the beast hunter cannot make another trap?

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:50 PM

You misinterpreted as I said Pitch/Rikae were an unlikely combo.Sorry! I trust you. To be fair, I was writing in a bit of a hurry. But that does not change my feeling that you have been pushing the lynch toDay in the direction of Mac/Kath/Pitch a bit too forcefully for it to sound innocent to me.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:50 PM

Sorry if I summarised it badly, what you say is how I read it. But I left Lottie and Nilp out of the summary bc they're not relevant right now.No worries :)

Rikae

06-11-2020, 02:51 PM

Happened after I made that point, as it stands. If Sally was a wolf and Mac not, she could have just said so in any case.

Simply not true and looks very evil.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 02:52 PM

Okay, Lommy/Mac for sure. Who's the third, do we think? Kath?
Possibly, but I wouldn't rule out sally either.

For what it's worth, while I was suspicious of Rikae this Morning their subsequent posting is making me feel better. Don't know about their suspicion of Brinn - while I feel Rikae may have a point about Brinn trying to commandeer the interpretation of Greenie's possible dreams, I also happen to concur with some of Brinn's suspicions.

For the Dead:
+-Macalaure

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:52 PM

I relate the most to Rikae toDay in the way they second guess thier own suspicions and all their different arguments don't add up to the same people being guilty/innocent. Therefore I trust them.

edit: xed with Pitch

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:54 PM

Simply not true and looks very evil.

Uhhh. Which part? Sally may have x'ed with my post clarifying the point, but it's one I talked about an hour ago or so.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 02:55 PM

Any innocent should reconsider their opinions toDay because there might not be toMorrow.
What do you mean there might not be toMorrow? Doing the math, there will definitely be a toMorrow. Yes, I get that it's critical we get a wolf toDay, but it's not necessarily all over yet if we make another mistake. We still have a ranger and toMorrow's medium vote.

But that does not change my feeling that you have been pushing the lynch toDay in the direction of Mac/Kath/Pitch a bit too forcefully for it to sound innocent to me.
Actually, I suspect Sally more than Mac at this point.

With Pitch, so many players have suspected him then discarded him as the cobbler. What if he is a wolf masquerading as a cobbler?

Rikae

06-11-2020, 02:55 PM

I'm willing to vote for Shasta or Sally but I don't want to risk spreading the votes too much.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 02:56 PM

Sally / Shasta / Pitch ?

Uhhh Rikae and Brinn and Nilp. Does Mac really look so suspicious to you that he should reasonably garner such a big chunk of the village suspicion?

I am not convinced of Mac's innocence myself but I honestly cannot see where all this suspicion is coming from if it's genuine.

edit: xed with everyone

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 02:57 PM

Sorry! I trust you.
After you proposed a Brinn-Shasta-Sally pack a few posts earlier? Isn't this a bit much flipflopping even for you?

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 02:57 PM

Bad
Shasta

Maybe bad
Pitch, Sally (just jumped a category because of her vote)

Maaaaybe bad
Kath (looks foul but feels fair)

Probably not bad
Brinn, Lommy, Rikae (I'm agreeing with what Lommy said about Rikae)

Almost certainly not bad
Nilp

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 02:58 PM

With my two top suspects joining the Mac wagon, I have no desire to vote that way.

My preference is either Sally or Pitch.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 02:58 PM

After you proposed a Brinn-Shasta-Sally pack a few posts earlier? Isn't this a bit much flipflopping even for you?

Pitch is sounding so much better to me. I could have been wrong the entire time. :D

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:00 PM

With my two top suspects joining the Mac wagon, I have no desire to vote that way.

My preference is either Sally or Pitch.

Hold up. I'm one of your top suspects??

Brain... whirling.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:01 PM

She means Pitch, who hasn't made it official yet.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:01 PM

Wasn't sure I'd actually GET my break, but I did. Whee!

With my two top suspects joining the Mac wagon, I have no desire to vote that way.

My preference is either Sally or Pitch.

Pitch is sounding so much better to me. I could have been wrong the entire time. :D

These two back to back make me feel....really icky.

Also, just to throw it out there, lynching me would probably be game over. I can't take anyone with me this time (*cough* Lommy *cough*), so maybe let's not just take a chance on me?

x'd since what I quoted

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:01 PM

After you proposed a Brinn-Shasta-Sally pack a few posts earlier? Isn't this a bit much flipflopping even for you? I meant I trust Brinn's correction of my words and I'm not gonna double check if I misinterpreted her.

I would prefer any of Sally / Shasta / Pitch over Mac but I'm not convinced they're ALL wolves so I would prefer to tread cautiously and think a tiny bit longer. It would be terrible if two were wolves and one innocent and we lynched the innocent one. :rolleyes:

edit: xed with everyone after Brinn's last

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:02 PM

Though Brinn, look at the kind of company Shasta is keeping - clearly he deserves to be lynched, too. ;)

...like... please?

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:03 PM

Uhhh. Which part? Sally may have x'ed with my post clarifying the point, but it's one I talked about an hour ago or so.

That if she were a wolf she could just say so. If all the wolves and cobbler piled on and lynched Mac toDay (which I guess they could, since the dead thread doubling vote would only tie later), AND the ranger didn't protect, toMorrow would still dawn, with baddies (all known) and innocent (+ dead thread) votes tied. All the innocents would have to do is be the first to post. It would be very foolish of her.

Now, if you're a wolf trying to get innocents to go for Mac quickly, promoting that idea would be a good move.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:05 PM

I think I would prefer Shasta or Pitch, because I think if they're not wolves, they're more likely cobblers (or one of them is).

While if Sally is not a wolf I think she's an ordo.

And toMorrow will be a terrible Day if we don't lynch a wolf toDay but it will be a little easier without the cobbler.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:05 PM

Though Brinn, look at the kind of company Shasta is keeping - clearly he deserves to be lynched, too. ;)

...like... please?

:rolleyes:

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:05 PM

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:07 PM

I don't know what to dooooooo.

sally or Shasta is my instinct.

But then sally goes:
Also, just to throw it out there, lynching me would probably be game over. I can't take anyone with me this time (*cough* Lommy *cough*), so maybe let's not just take a chance on me?

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:07 PM

Y'all cannot actually think I'd have voted as early as I did if I wasn't sure. Chaos benefits wolves so I'd have waited to the end.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:09 PM

Though Brinn, look at the kind of company Shasta is keeping - clearly he deserves to be lynched, too.

...like... please?
BG's death and Greenie's post really make me inclined to think him not a wolf. Of course, he could always be the cobbler.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:09 PM

Y'all cannot actually think I'd have voted as early as I did if I wasn't sure. Chaos benefits wolves so I'd have waited to the end.
You can't be sure. You're not the Seer. And you started the day by apologising for being so wrong about Form (as we all were ...) and saying you needed to rethink everything.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:10 PM

Y'all cannot actually think I'd have voted as early as I did if I wasn't sure. Chaos benefits wolves so I'd have waited to the end.

I'm sorry, but if your fellows (Pitch, Sally, Kath?) are all also more or less highly suspected, it's a good tactic to get an innocent alternative out as early as possible.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:10 PM

I'm still calling a pack of Mac + Kath + unknown. Maybe Pitch, or maybe he's the cobbler after all. I'm not sure on that one. Lommy is flipping and flopping all over the place, but I haven't pegged why. Everyone else looks pretty okay to me, I'd say.

You have my thoughts. I have to go now. :(

x'd since Mac's begging ;)

Mac/Kath/Lommy is where I'm leaning. Potentially with Rikae.

Brinn/Sally good, Pitch... probably good??? Oh lord.

WHO AM I FORGETTING???

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:12 PM

Sally, I'm flipping and flopping because I don't know anyone's role except mine and presumably Nilp's and I'm suffering. Maybe you don't understand because you know who's on your side so you don't feel the same kind of agony and second-guessing every thought that comes to your head.

Speaking of which, I would really like Nilp to appear and give his two cents about Mac/Kath vs Shasta/Sally and adjacent figures.

I kinda like how Brinn is in the process of doing a legate-180, it makes me feel better about her.

gonna x with a bunch again

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:12 PM

Mac and Kath have really, really tied themselves together here.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:14 PM

You know guys, if Shasta is the cobbler he's been pretty brilliant in this game. I wouldn't really be surprised.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:15 PM

You know guys, if Shasta is the cobbler he's been pretty brilliant in this game. I wouldn't really be surprised.

Lord, I wish. Be a great redemption story.

Pitchwife

06-11-2020, 03:23 PM

Lommy now seems to be looking for allies any which way. Really looks like a cobbler who can't for the life of her figure out which possible wolf pack to support.

I think the Kath/Mac liaison has merits. If Mac is innocent, that's another matter, but for toDay let's make it official:

++Macalaure

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:25 PM

I feel encircled by wolves in the bright of day...

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:26 PM

That's three votes for Mac now, right? From sally, Shasta and Pitch.

Well my current thinking is that sally, Shasta and Rikae are the wolves with Pitch as the Cobbler.

But admittedly a lot of that comes from the fact that I've spent most of the Day agreeing with Mac and so leaning to trusting him.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:26 PM

I really don't like where this is going.

++Shasta

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:27 PM

Yeah, there's no way three innocents just randomly decided to make a bandwagon against Mac.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:29 PM

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:29 PM

I really don't like where this is going.

++Shasta
And this is then interesting, because do the rest of us have a consensus enough to feel that Shasta is suspicious enough to make him an alternative to Mac? If not, and Mac is innocent, this could split the vote enough for the three votes for Mac to keep him ahead.

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 03:30 PM

A quick tally

Shasta > Mac
Sally > Mac (2)
Pitch > Mac (3)
Rikae > Shasta

30 minutes to go.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:30 PM

Why me?
To be honest, process of elimination.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:31 PM

And this is then interesting, because do the rest of us have a consensus enough to feel that Shasta is suspicious enough to make him an alternative to Mac? If not, and Mac is innocent, this could split the vote enough for the three votes for Mac to keep him ahead.
That right there is the reason why I'm not jumping on it.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:31 PM

Also, where the heck is Nilp in all this?

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:32 PM

Yeah, there's no way three innocents just randomly decided to make a bandwagon against Mac.
Agreed, but I don't think all of them are wolves either.

While I don't want to split the vote up too much I have no interest in voting Shasta.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:32 PM

Kath and Lommy seem willing to go with Shasta (am I right?), Brinn is not, and Nilp is awol.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:32 PM

Yeah, there's no way three innocents just randomly decided to make a bandwagon against Mac.

One, at least, but I'm fairly confident.

Which is gonna make me look real foolish if I'm wrong. But I don't think I am.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:34 PM

Also, where the heck is Nilp in all this?
Maybe he fell asleep? :confused:

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:35 PM

I misread Brinn's "two top suspects".

*bashes head on desk*

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:36 PM

One, at least, but I'm fairly confident.

Which is gonna make me look real foolish if I'm wrong. But I don't think I am.
So who do you think is what here?

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:39 PM

Okay then, let's not split it.

I am really gonna kick myself extra hard if Mac and Kath are wolves and it was obvious to everybody except blind old me (and to Rikae if she isn't the third one).

++Shasta

Do I need to spell it out. That bandwagon can NOT be innocent. It's possible there's an innocent in it, but somehow I don't think it's Shasta. He might be the cobbler though.

But yeah, let's not split the vote.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:39 PM

So who do you think is what here?

Already said, above. I'm on my phone, sorry.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:41 PM

I could have gone with Sally or Pitch, too, but with two votes for Shasta, it's him or me.

++Shastanis Althreduin

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:42 PM

Mac/Kath/Lommy is where I'm leaning. Potentially with Rikae.

Brinn/Sally good, Pitch... probably good??? Oh lord.

WHO AM I FORGETTING???
And sally, Pitch and you have voted.

You put them all down as good.

So which is 'the' innocent?

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:43 PM

This is ridiculous. I'm not lynching Shasta either. He's at best the cobbler. We need a wolf.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:43 PM

Oh gosh ok just seen the voting.

++SHASTA

I'm so stressed by this game!

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:43 PM

And sally, Pitch and you have voted.

You put them all down as good.

So which is 'the' innocent?

Me. He means me. :Merisu:

Seriously, toDay got wild all of a sudden. What is happening to Shasta?!

x'd with Brinn and Kath :eek:

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:43 PM

And sally, Pitch and you have voted.

You put them all down as good.

So which is 'the' innocent?

I FORGOT NILP!!

Guh.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:44 PM

This is ridiculous. I'm not lynching Shasta either. He's at best the cobbler. We need a wolf.

At least lynching the cobbler would shift the voting majority to innocent toMorrow.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:44 PM

I'd rather have gone with sally I think but it's a moot point now. We can't afford to have lynched the Cobbler and if Pitch has been doing a stellar job of hiding lycanthropy behind Cobblerishness, and Shasta the other way around. Ugh.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:45 PM

I FORGOT NILP!!

Guh.
Nilp hadn't voted.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:45 PM

So it's... Mac/Kath/Lommy/Rikae vs Brinn/Sally/Pitch/Nilp/me, then.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:45 PM

This is ridiculous. I'm not lynching Shasta either. He's at best the cobbler. We need a wolf.Even the cobbler is preferable to an innocent - it might make a difference toMorrow.

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 03:46 PM

A quick tally

Shasta > Mac
Sally > Mac (2)
Pitch > Mac (3)
Rikae > Shasta
Lommy > Shasta (2)
Mac > Shasta (3)
Kath > Shasta (4)

I think I have that right?

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:46 PM

I'm beginning to think the Dead Thread should ignore the whole blasted lot of us and go their own way. Not sure we've done much to help matters toDay. :rolleyes:

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:47 PM

So it's... Mac/Kath/Lommy/Rikae vs Brinn/Sally/Pitch/Nilp/me, then.I think you're a bit too quick to speak for Brinn, not to mention Nilp.

WHERE IS NILP

I'm antsy.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:47 PM

Nilp hadn't voted.

Yeah, I know. It just struck me who I'd forgotten.

I don't understand your question, though.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:47 PM

Urgh. I'm not happy about toDay at all and I'm sticking to my principles.

++Sally

Hopefully I'm wrong and Greenie didn't dream of Shasta, but I'm quite concerned.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:49 PM

I kind of feel bad for Brinn. :D

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:49 PM

So it's Shasta unless the dead thread intervenes, right? Regardless of what Nilp does if he does?

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:50 PM

*runs to look at the tie rules just in case*

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:50 PM

And if Greenie did dream of Shasta, I'm sure she's screaming at y'all beyond the grave. :rolleyes:

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:50 PM

Urgh. I'm not happy about toDay at all and I'm sticking to my principles.

++Sally

Hopefully I'm wrong and Greenie didn't dream of Shasta, but I'm quite concerned.

Welp. That's a wolf win, then. They consolidated, we didn't. Enjoy your principles, though, Brinn.

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:50 PM

I kind of feel bad for Brinn. :DAnd not for me???????????

If you're wolves with Rikae and Kath I'm not gonna recover.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:51 PM

Since my voters voted first, if one of them is the medium, assuming Nilp doesn't magically appear, I get lynched.

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:52 PM

Yeah, there's no way three innocents just randomly decided to make a bandwagon against Mac.

One, at least, but I'm fairly confident.

So who do you think is what here?

Already said, above. I'm on my phone, sorry.

I found what I assumed was the post you were referring to:
Mac/Kath/Lommy is where I'm leaning. Potentially with Rikae.

Brinn/Sally good, Pitch... probably good??? Oh lord.

WHO AM I FORGETTING???
So you, sally and Pitch all voted for Mac. And you said one of them is innocent. I was asking which one you thought was innocent, given I assumed you weren't counting yourself.

Sorry if that wasn't clear when I asked.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:53 PM

Welp. That's a wolf win, then. They consolidated, we didn't. Enjoy your principles, though, Brinn.
But what if Mac is innocent too?

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:53 PM

So it's Shasta unless the dead thread empowers one of the Mac voters?

DEAD THREAD, EMPOWER ME, FOR FLIP'S SAKE.

Not that it will make a difference at this point, but I can try!

Thinlómien

06-11-2020, 03:53 PM

Since my voters voted first, if one of them is the medium, assuming Nilp doesn't magically appear, I get lynched.So it's up to the dead?

That makes me feel strangely calm.

They will do what is best.

We can figure out toMorrow to fix our communication (also about toDay) if necessary and if we're still alive.

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:54 PM

So it's up to the dead?

That makes me feel strangely calm.

They will do what is best.

We can figure out toMorrow to fix our communication (also about toDay) if necessary and if we're still alive.

Unless they go with the plan, in which case it all depends on whether Greenie dreamt of a wolf, and who that wolf is.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:55 PM

I found what I assumed was the post you were referring to:

So you, sally and Pitch all voted for Mac. And you said one of them is innocent. I was asking which one you thought was innocent, given I assumed you weren't counting yourself.

Sorry if that wasn't clear when I asked.

Oh. Me, of course. I don't know any other alignments.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:55 PM

So it's Shasta unless the dead thread empowers one of the Mac voters?

DEAD THREAD, EMPOWER ME, FOR FLIP'S SAKE.

Not that it will make a difference at this point, but I can try!

If Shasta is a wolf, empower Sally.

That would be a mess.

Shastanis Althreduin

06-11-2020, 03:56 PM

But what if Mac is innocent too?

Then the game is on me, and I apologize.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:57 PM

The dead thread is going crazy. Maybe they're actually mobilizing! Cross your fingers, chaps!

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 03:57 PM

This deadline is nerve-wrecking...

Kath

06-11-2020, 03:57 PM

If Shasta is a wolf, empower Sally.
That would be a mess.
Which list? :rolleyes:

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 03:58 PM

That would be a mess.

Well, I'm just asking them to empower me because I think my beloved won't come back in time, and even more so I think your actual beloved is a hairy clawed beast, so screw the list and let's try to save the village.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 03:58 PM

Since my voters voted first, if one of them is the medium, assuming Nilp doesn't magically appear, I get lynched.
Then if the dead think Mac is a wolf, they should empower him. I have had doubts that he's guilty because my top suspects voted him, but I could be wrong here.

Rikae

06-11-2020, 03:59 PM

Well, I'm just asking them to empower me because I think my beloved won't come back in time, and even more so I think your actual beloved is a hairy clawed beast, so screw the list and let's try to save the village.

You were the one railing against changing the list at 3 pm because the dead might have already based their votes on it!

I think we know where to go for shoes.

Brinniel

06-11-2020, 04:00 PM

And now I'm thinking maybe I should've voted Mac, but the bandwagon against him rubbed me the wrong way..

Nilpaurion Felagund

06-11-2020, 04:00 PM

++Shasta

Macalaure

06-11-2020, 04:01 PM

My hero!

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 04:01 PM

Deadline cease posting.

There was a medium chosen. Who that specifically was will be revealed in the narration.

With the previous ruling stated somewhere after Nogrod's lynch about the Medium vote tying it up.

Edit: Nilp's vote came in. It will count.

Shasta is lynched.

satansaloser2005

06-11-2020, 04:02 PM

++Shasta

SON OF A-

x'd for sure

Boromir88

06-11-2020, 04:07 PM

In the beginning, things could not have gone much worse for the village. Lynch after lynch turned up just another wrongly accused villager. Then a glimmer of hope, even if it cost the loss of the seer, the Beast Hunter had booby trapped her home, which caught one of the werewolves.

With this new information and knowledge came a new hope. Would the villagers be able to capitalize on this new found fortune? How would they put this information to use?

"Why not spend the day arguing different messages from the dead?" decided many of them.

The dead looked on and waited.

"How about we realize the dire situation and focus on voting to lynch a werewolf?" said Shasta.

The dead looked on and waited.

"No, we need to make sure they get a clear message of what we want." argued others.

The dead looked on and waited. And as the day approached to an end they came to a decision.

It was Shasta's voice that spoke and everyone went quiet. "Isn't it obvious? ++Macalaure"

"What the devil are the dead trying to tell us?" questioned all the villagers. "This puts us in a tie!"

"I think that means I'm lynched?" said Mac "If I'm following this blasted thing correctly."

"++SHASTA!" came Nilp running and huffing and puffing. "SORRY! I fell asleep! But did I make it!"

That was enough for the village, right in the nick of time to let go of Mac and send Shasta to the gallow.

"Welp I tried" declared Shasta.

An ordinary villager was lynched.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3
A Little Green (Seer) - killed by pack Night 4
Legate of Amon Lanc (Werewolf) - caught in BH booby trap Night 4
Shastanis Althreduin (Villager) - Lynched Day 4

The Living

Brinniel
Kath
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 5. Silence in the town.

Werewolves talk and send kill.

Ranger Protect.

Beast Hunter's trap has been used

Boromir88

06-12-2020, 04:00 PM

Nothing short of a miracle would manage to save the town now. They had their best chances the previous day and still failed to lynch a wolf. Each Day was villager after villager.

In the House of Nilpaurion, he was not able to sleep. After sending Shasta to the gallow he had been pacing throughout his house all night. All his traps and contraptions and devices were destroyed in sorrow and anger.

In another part of town the 3 werewolves plotted who they were going to kill tonight. Was Nilpaurion the surest kill? They were prepared for any of his traps now, but perhaps the Ranger had not protected him the previous night.

"We have to avenge Legate!" growled one of the werewolves.

"We are this close to victory." said another. "Shouldn't we think about if he's protected tonight? We must keep our heads and not think of irrational revenge."

"No he's pretty much a confirmed innocent. And he's already killed one of us, which makes him the most dangerous." said the last. And so it was decided.

The wolves busted down the doors of Nilp's house. They all brought some shields and hid behind them when busting down the door, just in case if that nasty Beast Hunter had booby trapped the door. Nothing happened.

After breaking in the wolves looked around and saw the house was destroyed. Every cup and possible device for a trap was destroyed. They began calling for Nilp. "Oh Nilp? Beasty...beasty...beasty?" they called as if they were trying to summon a dog. "We have a message from Legate we'd like to deliver." They were really hoping to rub it in his face.

All through the house they looked. And when they finally got to the last room. To their shock, Nilp was lying on the floor with a sword in his hand. He had ran on his own sword.

"What the...?" said the confused wolves. "That's plain not fair!"

One of the werewolves picked up the note. on the table.

"I am of the House of Felagund. Though my pride has fallen, I will not allow myself to be taken by the likes of you for your pleasure. May my spirit find peace and rest! ++Nilp

"We've been Nilp'd!" protested the wolves. Though this soured their night, they still knew, their victory was close at hand.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3
A Little Green (Seer) - killed by pack Night 4
Legate of Amon Lanc (Werewolf) - caught in BH booby trap Night 4
Shastanis Althreduin (Villager) - Lynched Day 4
Nilpaurion Felagund (Beast Hunter) - Death ritual Night 5

The Living

Brinniel
Kath
Macalaure
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Thinlomien

----

It is Day 5. Village is in quite a bind and in need of a miracle, but a Fool's hope remains.

With 9 dead members. A vote of 5 is required for a Medium.