Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Boromir88]

Prologue

It was the year 1065 of the Third Age. A small group of folk had grown weary of the years of warring in the south, traveled northwards, and finally settled on the southern borders of Greenwood.

Lately, rumors were spreading among the village that what first looked like a promising spot to build a home, turned out to not be so. It wasn't just the recent illness and tragic death of their village founder and leader. There were also rumors that foul and dark things were inhabiting the Greenwood. Boro heard whispers amongst the townsfolk calling it Mirkwood.

Tomorrow morning the entire village elders would gather in Boro's residence to decide on a new leader. As was laid out by their original founder, one would be chosen from the group of 17. The meeting would likely take all day as all 17 were expected to speak their mind about the future and on who would lead them.

Boro favored staying and laying down stronger roots here. He was becoming quite settled and comfortable, even with rumors of the woods growing darker. Nothing was going to force him from this land. He decided.

There was a knock on his door. When Boro opened it there were 4 villagers who Boro knew were going to be at tomorrow's counsel.

"Folks" he said "Hello. I was going to try to get some sleep for tomorrow, but I don't think I'll have much success. Would you all like some tea?" The four villagers walked in. Two stopped in front of him, two behind and they began slowly circling. Boro decided this was quite unusual, even from these four. "Can I help you?"

"That remains to be seen," said the first. "You see, we were a little restless and went deeper into the forest than any one here has gone. You would be amazed at what is happening inside those woods. I'm amazed we all made it back in one piece!"

"Well, I'm glad you all made it back in time for tomorrow's counsel" Boro said trying to remain polite.

"Are you?" sneered the second. "What exactly are your intentions tomorrow? By that I mean, what do you hope to accomplish?"

Boro now had quite decided, fellow townspeople or not, he did not like these people being here and wanted them gone. "I suggest you all just head back to your home. There will be plenty of time tomorrow to decide on all of this. Good evening!"

"Aw, now you don't have to be so tense" said the third softly, and the tone disarmed him. "You are a prominent person, in fact important to us, and really want to know your mind."

"Well. if you insist." said Boro, this time a little calmer, but still wary of what these villagers were doing here at this time. "As you imply, I realize the forest might be growing dark. I have even heard some villagers calling it Mirkwood now. I get folks are scared and worried, but I don't see a reason to uproot ourselves. At least, it will take a lot more than whispers and rumors of evil things deep in the woods to move me."

"Ahh! See we quite agree with you!" smiled the fourth.

"Good. Well, I'm glad that's settled then" said Boro. "Now, good evening."

"Not for you!" laughed all four.

-------

For a look at the rules. Here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=725967&postcount=1)

[Boromir88]

"Not for you" the four laughed all at once.

Boro tried to make a quick dash for the door, but the two behind him grabbed him by the arms, one grabbed him by the legs, and the last grabbed a chair and restraints. He was forced into the chair and bound to it.

"Listen folks, I don't know what you want" he said nervously. "If you untie me and go, we can all forget about it."

The four intruders cackled at how pathetic he sounded.

"No. I mean it. I get it, you're restless in this village. You can go on your way tomorrow...or even right now. Tonight. No one will stop you. I won't say anything."

"I'm afraid you don't understand" smirked the leader of the group. "We said we agreed with you about staying here. We do not agree with you leading us. In fact, there will be no meeting tomorrow. No silly talk of an election of a new leader. This village is under our occupation and you will be the first example for anyone who tries to stop us."

One of them went to the window and drew back the curtains, revealing a full moonlight shining in. They all began to transform into terrible and beastly werewolf forms.

Four distinct howls were heard. Darkness fell on the House of Boro.

The Players

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Huinesoron
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

It is Night 1. Silence here.

Day 1 opens tomorrow @10pm GMT

[Boromir88]

It was early morning, just past dawn, when most of the townsfolk had already gathered outside Boro's house. The meeting was supposed to be starting soon and he wasn't answering the door!

Shasta was the last to arrive, right on the dot of when it was supposed to start. "What are we all waiting around outside for?" He yawned.

"Several of us tried knocking the last 15 minutes." said Nogrod "He hasn't answered."

"Yo! Boro! Get out here!" yelled Nilp as loud as he could. "You're the one who wanted to start this thing at the crack of dawn!"

Silence.

"Has anyone tried opening the door?" asked Blind Guardian.

"He probably overslept" said an irritated Kath. "I don't want to go walking in on him if he's not even fully dressed yet."

"Yo! Boro!" yelled Nilp this time even louder than the first. "You're not in there nude are you!?"

Silence.

"Alright, if he was awake, we would hear him crack up laughing" said sally. "If he's not awake after that raucous noise he would be the heaviest sleeper I know."

They all decided on opening the door for a quick peek. However, when the door opened they stared with mouths agape at the scene. Just a few feet away from the entrance, Boro's body was tied down to a chair. He had many claw marks all over, on his legs, arms, chest, face and neck. There were too many to even count. He was torn to shreds.

"What do you think the killing blow was?" asked Rikae

"Uhh, I don't know, maybe any of the 5 million cuts!" exaggerated Lommy

There was a piece of parchment at Boro's feet that Formendacil picked up and passed it to each of the villagers to read.

There will be no meeting. No election. We control this town now and if you oppose us, you will die. If you try to run, like this coward, you will meet the same fate.

Signed

There were 4 werewolf prints in blood on the bottom of the note.

(Note there are no clues to any roles in my narrations)

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Huinesoron
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

Day 1 is open for business.

Wolves cease night chatter.

[Loslote]

Well, this is no way to hold a village meeting! :eek:

[Formendacil]

I'm not even supposed to be here! I was just asked to house-sit while Wilwa is away, and, well, you know the economy--you don't turn down freeish room and mostly free board just because it's a tiny village in the middle of a nowhere rumoured to be haunted by bloodthirsty half-men, half-wolves.

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

[EDIT: I mispelt Wilwa as Willa and that was just too embarassing not to edit!]

[Pitchwife]

Werewolves, hm? I bet they come from that naked hill over yonder, the one with no trees on the top, just bare rocks rising over the forest. There's always a shadow over the place, gives me the creeps when I look that way.


Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

What an intriguing proposal. Does Boro's corpse look like an invitation to negotiations to you? Seems more like domination & crackdown to me.

[Loslote]

Clearly trying to run is not a good strategy against whatever these things are. If anyone is so unfortunate as to see one, they should try either playing dead or waving their arms around and yelling. Or I guess you could try Formendacil's "talk to them" strategy...seems a little fishy to me though.

[Pitchwife]

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?


Anyway, since it doesn't look like there's going to be much of a town meeting at this hour, I'm going back to sleep for now. See you all later.

[Formendacil]

What an intriguing proposal. Does Boro's corpse look like an invitation to negotiations to you? Seems more like domination & crackdown to me.

Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...

[Nogrod]

Does anyone have any connections to Ciryaher's court? After becoming the "South-Victor" he could also be a "North-Victor" by pacifying these lands. We could send an envoy to ask for help?

Or if anyone has any contacts with the media like "the Daily Gondorian" or "the Wold Post", or even better, knowing any influencers in "Middlestagram" or "Visagevellum" who could plead for our case? Any publicity would be good for us.

In a normal situation I would agree with master Formendacil in here, that violence is not the answer. But sometimes, like here an now, one just can't pretend one lived in the best of the possible worlds, but he needs to plainly take a stand for life and goodness against evil.

Therefore staying firm and obeying the high laws of morality is not always the humane answer - even if Ka(n)t(h) said so. Like the great Aristondil once said before: a virtuous person also knows when to get angry and when to stand up for the sake of his community and beloved ones, or like his teacher Plathor insisted, for the sake of Light and Goodness as such.

Looking at what these beasts have done to Mr. Boro, I can't help thinking we need to take some measures we would not be comfortable taking in any normal circumstances.

[Blind Guardian]

"Has anyone tried opening the door?" asked Blind Guardian.

This sounds just like me. :smokin: I would (IRL) just try the door.

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...


Wolf sympathizer. They already killed one. We need to find them and kill them before they kill anymore.

Edit: Ohh dang I did that quote thing correctly on the first try!! :eek: Didn't actually make any changes; just wanted to point that out.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, who killed my prince! Show yourselves, you filthy monsters!

I'm here and wondering if Form is perhaps one of those evil creatures. Perhaps he's not watching Wilwa's house at all, and ate the poor girl instead! :eek:

[Rikae]

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?


I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?



Okay, who killed my prince! Show yourselves, you filthy monsters!

I thought Shasta was your prince? Wait, is Boro actually Shasta? :eek: Nobody ever keeps me in the loop around here.

[satansaloser2005]

Well questioned, Rikae! Boro is my sweet prince. To be fair, I have many special internet men in my life. ;)

Speaking of which, I just noticed my love Nilp is playing! Please don't be evil. I'd hate to have to kill you. :Merisu:

I need to go to bed soon, but I'll be back to hopefully say something of merit in the morning. Please don't bandwagon on me while I'm gone again, eh, Lommy? :p

[Brinniel]

Poor Boro, what a gruesome way to die.

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably.
Yes, because I'm sure these wolves are willing to show their fur to talk. :rolleyes:

And I see Nogs has already turned to philosophy!

Speaking of which, I just noticed my love Nilp is playing! Please don't be evil. I'd hate to have to kill you.
Well, knowing his suicidal tendencies, he may just do the job for you. ;) Oh the irony, if he turns out to be the Night Wolf!

It's been a fairly quiet Day so far...should I expect walls of text when I return tomorrow?

[Loslote]

If I wake up and I find that no one has gone through and proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that all eight of us who have posted so far are somehow all evil, I will be disappointed. :p

[Rikae]

Well questioned, Rikae! Boro is my sweet prince. To be fair, I have many special internet men in my life. ;)


That's all well and good, but to the rest of us he was a town recorder, which I believe is a flute-like instrument (?) and the village butter-churner as well, which is an essential worker. Big shoes to fill, indeed. :Merisu:

Which reminds me, we did have an election planned for toDay, and I for one think that if we allow the wolves to disrupt the democratic process, haven't we already, in essence, let them win? I vote for +-Nogrod for our new leader, on the grounds that he is neither fishy, nor shopping for shoes, nor a monarchist.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I'm sorry, guys, it's been so long since I've done this. This is how this game is played, right?

[Blind Guardian]

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I'm sorry, guys, it's been so long since I've done this. This is how this game is played, right?

Uhh, you know you can't undo that on this thread, right?

Oh god is this going to be another Phantom (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=16850)...

[Loslote]

Uhh, you know you can't undo that on this thread, right?

Voting yourself is called “Nilping” for a reason. ;)

[Blind Guardian]

Voting yourself is called “Nilping” for a reason. ;)

I did not know that. I need to play more!

[Rikae]

I actually heard about Nilping before I met Nilp!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I did not know that. I need to play more!
I'll forgive you if you vote for me. :Merisu:

[Huinesoron]

"There will be no meeting?" Hah, wrong before they even left the opening narration. :D

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt. :)

I will be actively trying to fight my own wall-of-text tendencies by such arcane methods as 'proofreading my posts'. We'll see if it helps.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

I, for one, am up for sorting this out amongst ourselves without foreign military aid, that rarely ends well. In no time, you are paying taxes to some monarch in his distant white tower while werewolves may still be prowling about. No, we need to protect ourselves using our own resources.

Well, knowing his suicidal tendencies, he may just do the job for you. ;) Oh the irony, if he turns out to be the Night Wolf!
That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject. But I think all of these will become and grow more important only as the Days progress.

Generally, so far, rather quiet here... Hope for everyone to appear rather sooner than later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I actually heard about Nilping before I met Nilp!How disappointed were you? :D

sally establishes herself a haremWhat role do I play (aside from best girl, of course :Merisu: )?

That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject.Oh, right. That reminds me... Since my only Dead Thread game was *checks* five years ago (also my last game of any kind), I'd like to ask about the lay of the land. Like, is there a need for the good living inhabitants of Greenwood the Great (not a fan of this murky wood naming nonsense) to co-ordinate with the Dead, once that thread has been populated? I remember this being a sore point in that aforementioned previous game.

[Huinesoron]

Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely?

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

hS

[Formendacil]

That is... fewer posts than I was expecting to come back and find. (Wilwa's cats expect regular feeding, you know.

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

Not that there's much actual value in me saying that... but I have time now to post and who knows how my day will go, so rather than be the silent, suspicious villager, I may as well be the present, suspicious villager.

[Huinesoron]

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.


You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.
In fact, I'd say behaviour is the first thing that finds a Wolf (as far as ordinary villagers are concerned). That's why I am kinda unhappy about the so-far noncommital talk. But yeah, there is time.

Anyway... I will have time to be around here and there in the coming hours, and hope for more discussion to start.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, Form. :) (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697278&postcount=192).)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

[A Little Green]

Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely?
Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?I'm not Legate, but I'm guessing this refers to the possibility of the Nightmare wolf taking more risks or being less concerned for their own survival, knowing they will continue being an asset to the pack even if lynched. Personally I'm not sure if we can put too much weight on this kind of speculation, especially this early in the game, but it's worth keeping in mind that one of our wolves might not be as worried about being lynched a regular wolf. Then again, catching one wolf tends to leave trails to others, so if they're playing this angle, we can probably expect the rest of the pack to be quite prepared to bus the NW.

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.And to complete the list of expected D1 events, behold the debate on whether D1 is pointless or not. :p

[Formendacil]

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

In general terms, I don't disagree, but in more specific terms? Well, I do disagree...

Analyzing behaviour implies to me that you're analyzing someone's behaviour against a baseline of some sort. But what is that baseline? We have no other Day's in-game data yet to go by. It's always dicey to analyze against past performances (disclaimer: over a decade ago I did that ALL THE TIME--and somewhat successfully, if my memory serves, but it was different when you played multiple games with the same players back-to-back. Saying "XX doesn't seem to be as active as usual" or "YY is being unusually serious" is far less useful.)

So what does that leave for a baseline? Other players? That's comparing apples to oranges (or Eomers to gil-galads).

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

[Kath]

Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day.
I'd take offence but for the truth of that statement. :p

Poor old Boro! And he was so excited for this meeting as well. What a shame.

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

[Formendacil]

Hi, Form. :) (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697278&postcount=192).)

I offer a completely nonbinding and nonmonetary apology for my past transgressions, Nilp, and submit that it is past the Statute of Limitations to secure any recompense from me.

[Formendacil]

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

[A Little Green]

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.Speaking for myself, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and not play WW when I'm supposed to be working! Anyway done with work now so I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the day, though probably won't stay awake until DL.

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt.Trust me, that post was pretty concise for Nog. :p

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.
I've never been a fan of self-votes, but unfortunately I don't think we can read anything into Nilp's. He would definitely do it as the Nightmare wolf but he would just as likely do it in any other role, too. (If anything, Nilp not self-voting on D1 would attract attention.) But regarding the NW in general, I'll be curious to see whether the pack prioritise that extra power or keeping as many of them alive as long as possible - since sacrificing one of their number would mean an extra Day for them to survive in the game.

[Kath]

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.
So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

Ok so apart from the Nightmare Wolf getting to go into play, the wolves gain nothing by being suicidal early on. That doesn't discount Nilp from being a wolf hiding in plain sight, though!

[Huinesoron]

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

As a scientist, I would love to be scientific, but... it's Tol-in-Gaurhoth. It's never going to be scientific, and we're fooling ourselves if we think it will. :)

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

hS

Edit: Crossed since Formendacil #36.

[Nogrod]

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context.
...
But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.
I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

I think we're stuck with what the great Númenorian philosophers called abductive reasoning or inference, where we start from observations and then reason for the most likely conclusion - in a good case the results are plausible enough to act on, but they will never verify our conclusions.

I think Form is correct in pointing out the lack of "baseline" - or generally lack of data on Day1, but I'd not deduce from that a total futility of Day1 - even on Day1 itself.

We'll have ample time to get the ball rolling toDay.


EDIT: X'd with a bunch

[Huinesoron]

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

Well, it's certainly not a binary choice in actual fact: but as two ends of a continuum, things lean on Day 1 far more to the the good as nothing end.

That's not saying no one should post or try--but if we catch a Wolf, let's not pretend that it was anything other than dumb luck! And if it isn't luck, it's far more likely to be manipulation by the Wolves, who are the only ones who know anyone's role, than cleverness by the Village.

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

[Formendacil]

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

[Nogrod]

If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!
Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)... :cool:

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Re: suicidal Nightmare Wolf

Both normal and dream-haunting baddies would of course operate better with more information about the village (i.e., the Gifteds) but while normal Wolves can miss on a Gifted and still advance their goal (of eliminating the village), the nightlife lycan needs the information a lot more because using their power on an Ordo is a waste.

If I were a Nightmare Wolf, I basically have two possible avenues of action:
Get killed as soon as possible to have more chances to use my powers, and hopefully to reduce any trace of connexion with my fellow carnivores. But I'd lose access to their analyses that would be give me better chance to uses my abilities on the right targets.
Just play like a normal canine, have a chance to influence the village by DAY and talk to my fellows at NIGHT, so if I do end up on the chopping block I have a better chance of ruining some Gifted's NIGHT. On the other hand, I might end up leaving behind all sorts of clues to my fellows, but that's also a problem in normal games.

So, ignoring the risks one would incur in any other game anyway, the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

[Huinesoron]

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

hS

(Crossed with Nog and Nilp)

[Nogrod]

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.
That's a good one! You're proving against your explicit points by your deeds Form. I think you are already doing something useful.

the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.
If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).That's a negative.

Werewolves (4)- choose 1 person every night to kill until the number of villagers equals their own. They can communicate privately during the NIGHT phase. Living wolves can not privately communicate with dead wolves, or vice versa. [The Rules (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=725967&postcount=1), emphasis mine]

[Huinesoron]

That's a negative.

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

[Formendacil]

Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Add in some curmudgeonly grumbling about having tonsuffer through it, and you've basically got my Day 1 feelings.

Re: Nilp's NW analysis, I think that overall, the stronger option, as he lays it out, is the second--but what isn't being mentioned in it is whether what Nog just referred to a triple-bluffing element would cancel that out. In other words, the value to zigging when expected to zag.

I think the risk/reward value to a Day 1 NW kill is higher than any other permutation for the wolves, so I don't really expect it--but even that could tell us something about the personality of the wolves (once we get deep enough in the game to get a sense of the personalities still standing).

[Formendacil]

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

In the spirit of later Days... could be a non-wolf getting confused by the bit in the rules saying that all dead wolves can communicate OR a Wolf laying down some hopeful misdirection. On the basis of no info at all, I lean to toward the former.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hSBecause he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully. :smokin:

[Huinesoron]

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly. (Not sure if Nog's was a present or past tense 'read'; I assumed the former at first, but it seems you might be assuming the latter.) If he didn't, it would be nice to hear why not.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully. :smokin:

:rolleyes:

(People are right; you've got great cover if you're a wolf.)

hS

[Nogrod]

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly.
I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more. Well, I see...

-Other dead werewolves can communicate privately with the NW during the NIGHT phase to help determine a victim (or that there is no victim that night)
Just somehow managed to miss / ignore that quite important word "dead" from there... twice (when I read the rules before the game and when checking Nilp's claim). :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

Seems like a strange discussion to be having on the heels of a game where a seer, a cobbler, and a seer-hinting wolf were all leaving intentional trails on Day 1 and the latter two attracted attention by doing so (albeit confused attention).

Is it ever scientific? Is it scientific late in the game when people track down wolves by cross-referenckng voter, death & suspicion lists? Context still matters. There's still a qualitative element to it, looking at posts, tone, hints, interactions. All that's happening from day 1: it's impossible to post without leaving a trail of some kind, and not posting long enough is evidence, too. Sounds silly, but without day 1 there is no day 2. You'd have a kill with no leads, essentially, just a smaller village with nothing to go on.

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

[Kath]

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".
Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion. :D

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion. :DSally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

[Kath]

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.
Oh it would have to have proper consequences. e.g. a self vote would lead to a randomised person from the self-voters side being killed that Day.

[Huinesoron]

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion. :D

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

(Crossed with Kath continuing to do so...)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent? :D

[Huinesoron]

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent? :D

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

(Also, 'not permanent'? A Dead player gets one vote towards giving one Living player two votes. Death isn't a 'you're out go away', but it's still pretty permanent.)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

[Kath]

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

[Huinesoron]

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

EDIT: And she has, shifting topics completely from her last 2 posts. Allowing for the usual Day One qualifiers, she certainly could be a wolf antsy about having a finger pointed at her.

As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart. :)

hS

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, folks. I woke up super sick this morning. I have a conference call coming up shortly, so I'll be around for a wee bit, but then I'm going to try to sleep this off. I hope to be back before DL, but I can't promise.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. [...] As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart. :) I've seen, ah, challenges to my WW, um, lifestyle over the years. :Merisu:

(To be fair, I did ask (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726212&postcount=26) for a metagame refresher, since this is different from other games I've played, and did mull over the one game quirk my brain could wrap itself around. I won't poke beehives hoping for responses, because I used to be one of those empty beehives myself. :D )

[Rikae]

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing. :p

[Formendacil]

Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

Not just initially!

This the rare Day where I'm at work (so no toddler), but nothing's going on at work, so I have time (and I'm arguably bored).

I agree with everything I've said so far, even of that sounds tautological--and even if you assert it isn't all self-consistent. I still think Day 1 is basically fumbling around pointlessly in the dark and its value is only to be seen after the fact. While I certainly do NOT recommend archive trawling as a prerequsite for playing, doing so would suggest this is not my first time expressing this opinion.

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively." Should we wait until we're all in the Dead Thread? Is there a "too soon" period we have to wait out? I'm quite capable of going back to in-character posts, but I think if we limit ourselves strictly to those, we're going exacerbate my Day 1 Distaste.

[Rikae]

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively."
Not bad, just, in this case, not really useful. Wolves will sacrifice the NW, but also won't if they're a cautious pack (what's a cautious pack? Is there a consistent group of players who would always be a cautious pack?), but also will sacrifice a different wolf, but it's all pointless anyway, let's discuss how pointless it all is ... which is why I say "talking to talk". To be fair, everyone's doing that to some extent on Day 1, at least until someone waves a red flag (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sh4kz_zhyo).

[Rikae]

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

[Rikae]

Or rather, several in a row, I see he's mixing it up.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll let you be my Kremlinologist, Rikae.

[Loslote]

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible. Think Boro last game - focusing on a few loud players so there aren't ties to the packmates, soft (or not so soft!) claiming Seer to try to draw out the real Seer, turning on a packmate so blatantly that the attention swings their way (also Boro, years ago - I was the packmate in question, and I skated by on that play for a long time!). So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW. :p

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

[Kath]

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.
Someone mentioned this further up and I think went round to the same conclusion. Early on, apart from knowing who the other wolves are, the NW would be stabbing in the dark in terms of stopping Gifted abilities. They might get lucky, but it would be hard for them to know for sure anyway, as they don't find out the role of the person they haunt.

[Macalaure]

Late to the party... let's see what you've all been up to and who's a wolf and who's not.

*puts on thinking hat*

*reads thread*

*takes off thinking hat*

Well, that was disappointing. You lot need to start doing suspicious things!

...or maybe this thing is broken.


I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.How do you know they aren't? Some packs go crazy with plans and traps and whatnots, some packs just sit back, watch the mayhem, and pray to Arugal that their neck won't be on the line. Once there are dead people we might be able to tell.

Wait, Arugal? Wrong fandom... apologies.

how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?But... didn't you just... *gesticulates*

...ah well.

I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible.The NW ability is nice and all, but they'd be insane to sacrifice their numbers for it - and since Boro is dead, that's unlikely. :p

Also, Nog being wrong about the NW rule means he's either an innocent who didn't read the rules or a wolf who wants us to think he's an innocent who didn't read the rules. So that actually narrows it down quite neatly.

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more.
He's reading the rules, he's checking them twice, he's gonna find out who's naughty or nice.

I agree with everything I've said so far
Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy! :p

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

if we find someone that we think is the NWThe relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hello, all. I'm at work right now, but will be able to dig into this in a few hours.

[Kath]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

[Loslote]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion. :p

[Boromir88]

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

[Rikae]

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

Thank you, Your Wiliness!

[Blind Guardian]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

This is what I was thinking of too, but I would add +-Sally because she's sick and we don't need 'rona AND Werewolves. :Merisu:

[Pitchwife]

Now this is more like it.

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?
A valid question, with the barefoot season approaching, but if I see someone hanging out a business sign I'll stop to inspect the goods, and Formy's post about talking amicably to the wolves seemed to do just that. The question is, was he looking to sell or buy?


So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.
I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?
Well, like others have said, it depends on the makeup of the pack and also on who the NW is, how good they are at gifted-spotting - say, if it's Shasta for example it could be good idea to activate his power early. Anyway, the pack would have less to lose by losing the NW than by losing anybody else, so wolf-on-Nightmare-wolfing could be a valid tactic for them to fall back on in case of need.


Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.
I don't really see what that wolves would have to gain from that which they wouldn't gain by sacrificing the NW, but thanks for continuing to make helpful suggestions!:rolleyes:


I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.


One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.
If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

[Galadriel55]

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion. :p

+- Cobbler voting :D

[Huinesoron]

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

Now this is interesting. I've said that I found Formendacil's response more innocent than wolfy, that you looked like a wolf (inasmuch as anyone can on Day One), and that I had no clue on Nilp. I don't think I offered a conclusion on Nog, but his reaction seemed pretty genuine, and as someone (Nilp?) said, a wolf probably wouldn't misremember the rules relating to wolves.

So I feel like I've said quite a lot. If you mean I've not contributed to the discussion of what we think the wolves will do, what the NW specifically will do, and what the rules for the Medium are (not to mention what a future game might look like), you're right, I haven't - because I don't think those are useful for finding wolves. As I recall, the Day One Game Mechanics Discussion last time was started by the Cobbler.

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.

hS

[Loslote]

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

My thought was more, if we think someone is the NW, should we try to find a non-NW instead. But I talked myself out of it, since the wolves could pretend to be the NW to buy themselves time.

[Huinesoron]

+- Cobbler voting :D

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. :) It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, all we need is a fourth one and I think we have the entire pack. :smokin:

[Boromir88]

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...


G55's not. She just couldn't resist :rolleyes: :p

[Loslote]

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. :) It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

[Brinniel]

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

[Huinesoron]

G55's not. She just couldn't resist

... :eek: She's Cobbling from beyond the DeadThread! That's next-level cobbling.

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

I think maybe I'm not good at interpreting people's words. :( This is going to be a serious disadvantage in playing Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

Would it be amiss to ask what "bold moves" could constitute, in general terms? I feel like it's a term that's used a fair bit, so I'd like to know what people mean by it.

hS

[Loslote]

I think maybe I'm not good at interpreting people's words. :( This is going to be a serious disadvantage in playing Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

Would it be amiss to ask what "bold moves" could constitute, in general terms? I feel like it's a term that's used a fair bit, so I'd like to know what people mean by it.

hS

This is probably flavored by having played a lot of WW, too. To me, "big moves" are when you take control of the game, whether for a brief moment or for a Day or two. A Gifted reveal (real or fake), a known innocent taking control and steering the village for as long as they can stay alive, a wolf attacking a packmate in a way that is so obviously evil that the attention swings to to the wolf jumping in.

[Pitchwife]

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.
I was going to say that there is no such thing as an information-free D1, or at least if it seems so now it will certainly not be looking back from toMorrow, but forgot about it because it didn't seem so important and also forgot to remove the quote.


Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...
Me too.


I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid.
The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

[Huinesoron]

This is probably flavored by having played a lot of WW, too. To me, "big moves" are when you take control of the game, whether for a brief moment or for a Day or two. A Gifted reveal (real or fake), a known innocent taking control and steering the village for as long as they can stay alive, a wolf attacking a packmate in a way that is so obviously evil that the attention swings to to the wolf jumping in.

Okay, thank you. :) Makes sense.

The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb. :p

hS

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm finally here! First off, a disclaimer: the deadline is 1am our time, I'm back to work full time and sadly my job isn't one where you can play ww, so I'll be around a lot less than last game. Maybe it's not an entirely bad thing... :D

~*~

Please don't bandwagon on me while I'm gone again, eh, Lommy? Maybe you'll turn out to be a wolf this time. :Merisu:

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.Yeah but, if people don't even *try* to make Day1s useful, they certainly won't be!

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?I'm gonna start with the assumption that the wolves wouldn't go out of their way to bus the NW but if the wagon starts rolling they'll be happy to jump on it.

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.Nilp, I love it that you're back *sends kisses* but this is just. too bold. Like, this doesn't read as anything but a double bluff. To quote Pitchwife: *PING!*

I agree with everything I've said so far
Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!Lmao.

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come. Hear, hear.

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away? :p

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away? :pSally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

[A Little Green]

Looks like a lot of debate on whether or not we should lynch the NW or not. ?? I mean, sure, would be nice to leave the NW for last so their ability doesn't come into play. But I agree with Pitch and Nilp, since there's no way of identifying the NW before they're killed this is pretty much theoretical.

Huin is definitely a man on a mission (I love Rikae's choice of words!). So far I disagree with Kath and think this probing and poking makes him lean more innocent than not - last game, when he was a wolf, he felt more cautious somehow and less eager to poke at people for reactions. On the other hand, his theory of how Lottie and Kath are plotting to get him killed made me raise an eyebrow - though last time I suspected someone for being paranoid it was four innocent people in a row :rolleyes:

Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.
+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.He is doing a lot of pushing, but I think he had already voiced more opinions about other players than most others at the time. I could see a Kathwolf laying groundwork for an easy D1 lynch, but frustratingly, there's an equally likely scenario of innocent Kath trying to get the ball rolling on what little we have to go on with at this stage.

Lommy makes a point about Nilp's "I'm a nasty carnivore" -comment looking like a double bluff, and I do know what she means - this could be a Nilpwolf using his own tropes and mannerisms as a cover and exaggerating a bit, trusting his reputation for being chaotic and suicidal on D1 to give him a pass. Or could be innocent Nilp excited to be back. I'm flip-flopping myself into a corner here :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.
A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.


That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]

[Thinlómien]

I would laugh if Kath and Hui were co-wolves again, but I think they both have a bit different vibe from the last game (Kath is more straightforward/carefree, Hui less cautious/diplomatic) which makes me feel better about both of them.

[Huinesoron]

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.

That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]

I didn't mean to imply Lottie could be involved - I meant to state it! I was looking at two people who had already done things I found sketchy (Kath's sudden pivot back to on-topic when poked, Lottie's 'let's not kill the NW' thing), and saw what could be them acting in concert.

Lottie's helpful explanation of what 'bold' means is why I'm not still worried about that; it shows she wasn't saying what I thought she was. I'm figuring Kath was reading Lottie the way she intended, so there's not really a 'plot' any more, just an isolated suspicion.

Make sense?

hS

[Nogrod]

I meant just to check whether my gut feeling - that hS feels a bit over-eager to sound like one who has only the best of the village in mind - had actually any basis in the posting. And well, the number of these quotes kind of got a little out of hand, but I think they do confirm the feeling.

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

It does raise my eyebrows a little. So if I'd have to vote right now, I'd consider voting for hS. I do hope we get something better than that though to base our votes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?


Anyway, since it doesn't look like there's going to be much of a town meeting at this hour, I'm going back to sleep for now. See you all later.

Well, I immediately think Pitch is the Cobbler from this post. :rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?




I thought Shasta was your prince? Wait, is Boro actually Shasta? :eek: Nobody ever keeps me in the loop around here.

I thought I was, too!

[Thinlómien]

Seems like their usual innocent self - Rikae, Greenie, Nogrod

Seems unlike recent evil self - Hui, Kath

Vague good feeling - Blind Guardian, Lottie

Under my radar so far - Legate, Mac, Pitch, Brinn

Did they say anything?? - Shasta, Sally

Made me raise an eyebrow - Nilp, Form


Also I caught myself thinking "Inziladun is really flying under my radar in this game, I don't remember a single post he made" and then I realised maybe because he's not playing... :eek::D:rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

I, for one, am up for sorting this out amongst ourselves without foreign military aid, that rarely ends well. In no time, you are paying taxes to some monarch in his distant white tower while werewolves may still be prowling about. No, we need to protect ourselves using our own resources.


That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject. But I think all of these will become and grow more important only as the Days progress.

Generally, so far, rather quiet here... Hope for everyone to appear rather sooner than later.

I think, on the whole, that I like this post from Legate, there's just a teeeeeensy voice in the back of my head that's like "ooh, performative wolf!" But I suppose we'll see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That is... fewer posts than I was expecting to come back and find. (Wilwa's cats expect regular feeding, you know.

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

Not that there's much actual value in me saying that... but I have time now to post and who knows how my day will go, so rather than be the silent, suspicious villager, I may as well be the present, suspicious villager.

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

Maybe I'm just having a performative kind of day, but this also looks... strange.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The voting as of the moment:

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
----------NOTHING FOLLOWS----------

And there's two hours before the deadline, if I can do time zones. I mean, this is a swell result for me, really.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hi, Form. :) (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697278&postcount=192).)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

If Nilp is a wolf I'm not sure I'll ever find him. Maybe I'll just vote him today and get him out of the way. I'm sure he won't mind. :Merisu:

[Pitchwife]

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?
You'd never do that yourself, would you?:p
TBF, Hui does tend to overdo the 'responsible innocent' routine even when he is one, so I wouldn't hold that alone against him.



Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'll try to go through the Day again. It's pretty bad if we have just, basically three names (?), circulating around in some vague manner only two hours before the DL. It's a fair chance none of them is a wolf and the lycanthropes lean back on their armchairs taking one more sip of wine just being pleased.

Some fresh openings would do good at this point.


EDIT: X'd with Pitch

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

What daytime actions might those be?

[satansaloser2005]

Sally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

Not yet anyway. Give us time, beloved. :Merisu:

I thought I was, too!

There there, my sweetheart, Sally loves you too. :Merisu:

Not the Rona. Just a terrible headache. I'm here but not thinking clearly, and to make things clear on my intentions....

++No vote, or whatever

Don't feel comfy with my thoughts right now and don't want to make any mistakes. Some sustenance and then back to bed for me!


X'd since Lommy

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)... :cool:

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

I would say almost assuredly yes to that last.

[Thinlómien]

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:

Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.


edit: xed with S&S

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Very "a-HA!" of you. Hmm.

[Nogrod]

You'd never do that yourself, would you?:p

Me? Oh, never! :D:)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:




edit: xed with S&S

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

(Crossed with Kath continuing to do so...)

...is Huin exactly the Nightmare Wolf here?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

[Thinlómien]

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?Yes I agree that was a deliberate choice of words. Could be a wolf signaling to the cobbler too, though, maybe expecting someone to continue the banter and identify themselves that way? Or perhaps a very wily ordo trying to mislead the wolves but I think Occam's razor might have something to say about that theory. :D

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

Don't know how to feel about this from Kath. NW being in the Dead Thread is just as effective at causing confusion, and this seems designed to deflect attention from that - but presumably the other wolves would be on board for a self-sacrificing NW.

Hmm.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing. :p

I don't really agree with this - using your powers with not much to go on is still better than not having them to use at all, IMO. You could always get lucky.

[Brinniel]

Nilp is too much fun to have around to lynch on Day 1. :p

I do agree that Hui's posting style seems different from the last game. Which makes me think better of him for now.

Formy seems very focused on possible wolf strategies. Maybe a wolf trying to mislead us? I feel like I may be grasping at straws a bit on this, but on Day 1, I don't have much else to go on.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

Oh? What an interesting catch.

[Pitchwife]

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?
OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

I do like this, I was operating under the same conclusion re: ideals.

[Loslote]

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

Is "fish leather" a thing from past games?

[Rikae]

Pitch - could be cobblerish indeed, not really getting wolfish - casting light cobbler-suspicion on Form, discourages votes for Nilp
Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience
Form - keeping an eye on him, but his explanations when pressed do tend to look more innocent
Nilp - asks to be lynched, which would make me think he was at the very least not gifted and not too risky a lynch, except, being Nilp, he'd kind of have to do this even if he was. Painted himself into a corner.

[Thinlómien]

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.Fair enough. Also I see Shasta and Rikae already found another cobbler. :D (Also agreed, in retrospect, about your point about Form. Are we sure we don't have four cobblers and one wolf instead of four wolves and one cobbler? ;))

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think the NW would try to get themselves lynched in the first Day or two because they do still count as a wolf in numbers and getting lynched too early is risky. However, I would expect that if the wolves bus one of their packmates that it would be the NW.

Keep in mind that the wolves may plan ahead all they want, but depending on how each Day plays out, those plans may fall by the wayside and shift completely as the game progresses.

While we do want the NW dead because a wolf is a wolf, in an ideal world, the NW would be the last wolf that we lynch. But I have no idea how we would actually plan for that except for sheer luck. I have no reservations to lynch a potential NW, but I would attempt to focus on suspicious folk who are less likely to be the NW at least early in the game - a potential under the radar wolf, for instance. Unfortunately, those are the wolves that are harder to spot.

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?

[Huinesoron]

Very "a-HA!" of you. Hmm.

Yes, and I would have loved Nog to wolfishly overdefend after being 'a-HA'd. But sadly other people answered for him, so by the time he replied I'd already said that was my hope.

Which nicely leads on to:


I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

To which I say:

1/ Several of your quotes were me talking to Formendacil, and explaining my disagreement with 'Day One is useless'.

2/ When I don't say why I'm asking weird questions, people start calling me on asking weird questions. :) I tried to split the difference between pushing effectively, and not leaving it weird to sidetrack people.

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

Unless people are playing very emotionally (and I don't think they are) , the people with the most relevant buttons to push are the wolves. I say getting reactions out of them is worth the risk.

Lots of cross-posts and coming up to bedtime; will look over the recent stuff and probably have to vote next time I post.

hS

[Rikae]

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.

If I were a wolf twice in a row (I think that has happened? I don't know, it all blurs together) I would make very sure to do exactly that.

[Formendacil]

Back from work, but on my phone and toddler-adjacent, so I might not (probably won't) be fine-tooth combing the more recent posts.

It's good to see Shasta appear: he had what seemed like a comparatively high number of mentions for a previously absent player--granted, Day 1 tends to be more "this person is normally like this" than later Days, but it's still good to see SOMETHING pre-vote.

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hm. I need to nap. Much as I love holding my vote -

++Huinesoron

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

[A Little Green]

Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.Not sure I get this. I mean, yes, Nilp is a very easy target on D1 as he pretty much paints the target on himself, and if he's innocent he would be a safe vote pick for a wolf. But the rest of this argument is odd. So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler :D

Additionally, what I think Lommy was getting at was the tone of Nilp's comment about being a carnivore rather than the basic fact that Nilp is acting suicidal on D1 (which I agree would be no grounds at all to base a suspicion on). And that seemed valid enough to me for a D1 argument. Especially this early on, the best leads I get come from how people do what they do rather than the thing itself.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I had considerably busier day than I thought, but now caught up.

For the amount of posts, there is not that much content - which on the one hand is good because of easy read, on the other hand, it gives precious little information to go with. Apparently, we need a controversy like that with the pre-voting argument to start something at all. Speaking of which...

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!
I think this is not such a bad idea also in terms of helping the Dead Thread figure out where to cast *their* votes, once that becomes relevant. (Even though they can retract, so that should not be such a big deal. Still... I can already imagine the chaos if everyone on the Living Thread waits for the last minute to vote, as is bound to happen, and the Dead massively tumbling over each other like in PJ's movie to get the right person they want to make the Medium.)

Otherwise: I see Hui has become the most inquisitive mind here. That is a marked difference from his performance in the previous game. Of course, he might have "learned his lesson" and adopted a bolder Wolf tactic than last time, but from the overall way he's doing it, I would rather think it a sign of innocence. On a related note...

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

I basically thought the same what Rikae said - unlike others, Form's conclusion did not seem to me like a conclusion of the debate. I don't think discussing "what the Wolves would do" is anything so problematic per se. But I was rather wondering at the overall framework of what Form was doing there: whether it was just a talk, or whether he was rehashing something that he and his packmates have been debating overnight. Innocents may not tend to go so deep into the subject by themselves.

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.
Essentially I would second this. Since nobody seems to be doing it, however, that also makes me think that we either have a very careful Cobbler (as opposed to the previous game), or else it's Nilp. Which is kind of a dead end because, as it's been remarked before, Nilp would have Nilp'ed himself probably no matter what he was.

But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold. Well, this is Day 1 - let's see how things continue.

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.
I think this whole discussion is somewhat pointless: if we think we have a Wolf, then we should lynch them, as on top of everything we have no way of verifying whether they are not only the NW, but whether they are a Wolf in the first place, until they are dead! So that should not be a question. It would be nice if one could put suspicious people "on ice" that way, but that is what ultimately wins Wolves the games.

I would laugh if Kath and Hui were co-wolves again, but I think they both have a bit different vibe from the last game (Kath is more straightforward/carefree, Hui less cautious/diplomatic) which makes me feel better about both of them.
I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Okay, back in a bit with some thoughts on everybody, because I realise this may pick up now...

EDIT: x-ed with a horrible bunch somewhere back on the previous page! (around Nilp's time remark) What's happening!!

[Nogrod]

Well, it really has been quite uneventful Day. Things to take hold on to seem to be few and far between.

Form and Nilp toy with their roles both in their own ways. But neither "I grow hair and eat children for breakfast" or self-voting (especially in case of Nilp) doesn't seem to say that much to any direction.

hS I commented on already about his over-eagerness to show himself to be a good guy. Also the over touchy-feely reaction to a few remarks by Kath and Lottie does look a bit strange. And I do agree with Rikae, that playing differently than when a wolf in the last game hardly is an argument (rather it should be the default setting).

Pitch's leather boots do add on to Nilp's usage of the boot-icon, but that also feels a bit weak as a cause for a vote to say the least.

There's really very little to go on. But we still have one hour to go and maybe the stakes will start rising?


EDIT: X'd with a lot

[Thinlómien]

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally... Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

[Boromir88]

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

[Loslote]

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

[Pitchwife]

Is "fish leather" a thing from past games?
No, but it's used for making fine things like ladies' gloves and handbags. Too thin and soft for boots, really, although I guess it might do for pumps.[/worldbuilding]


Not sure I get this. I mean, yes, Nilp is a very easy target on D1 as he pretty much paints the target on himself, and if he's innocent he would be a safe vote pick for a wolf. But the rest of this argument is odd. So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?


I meant toDay - toMorrow is quite another thing. Also, if he makes himself suspicious by anything else than his usual suicidal behaviour (such as the use of boots that Rikae picked up), that's fair game.

[Loslote]

Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

[Blind Guardian]

I have a question. Is there any way the Wolves can just kill the NW on a Night of their choosing? Instead of killing a villager, can they kill their own? That would give them control over when the NW enters the Dead Thread.

X'ed with a lot

[Formendacil]

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

[Nogrod]

I think Greenie has a point in intrepreting Pitchwife's comments on Nilp.
So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?


Then again, I don't understand this at all.
But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold.
Now how are the two parts of the argument related? That if we do have a quiet Cobbler, then (and only then?) it is possible the WW's are also less bold? But if the Cobbler would be loud again, then the WW's would also be loud for certain?

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

[Rikae]

That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.


What if we all abstain and have a nice picnic and a bonfire? Mac and I have S'mores fixings we're happy to share! :)

Oh yeah ... werewolves.

[Pitchwife]

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).
Isn't that true of about every D1 in WW history ever? And if we were all to follow your 'strategy', where would that leave us toMorrow?

[Loslote]

It's too late for a no vote toDay, anyway. Votes have been cast. Even if everyone else in the village abstains, we would still have 1 Nilp and 1 Huin, and one of them would die.

[Nogrod]

my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1.
Yes.

But paraphrasing Lottie: Washing your hands from that procedure is actually both helping the wolves to decide who is lynched (as there is going to be a lynch anyway) and denying everyone else your own input to be analyzed.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It's too late for a no vote toDay, anyway. Votes have been cast. Even if everyone else in the village abstains, we would still have 1 Nilp and 1 Huin, and one of them would die.And that would be me. :D

[Huinesoron]

Okay. I'm going to put aside for now the people I mostly think look dodgy for their comments on me (mostly Kath and Nog, I think) ; I'm clearly very easy to misunderstand, so I'd need more to go on there. (Kath's chat with Nilp all looks very small from this distant time.) I'm also going to hold off on Nilp until I can get more of a feel for him.

Formendacil still looks innocentish. Rikae... I think I might just like their post style, but it looks pretty innocent to me. Lottie I at least don't get wolf vibes off.

Sally, well, there's not much to say yet. Macalaure's one post (that I can see) is low on content for being so far into the day (#75), so could be dodgy. Shasta has posted a lot, on a lot of subjects; I feel like they're contributing rather than trying to muddy things, but it is just a feel.

Blind Guardian has made... one post? All I remember is it felt like a newer player, and I'm out of time to hunt (can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?). Brinn hasn't posted much, but hasn't been using that to focus on just one topic (I had in my head that they were just talking about cobblers, so I looked back). Should have done this alphabetically... Legate looks okay, Greenie I remember something twigged early on but I don't know what.

Um, who have I missed? Lommy! I... can't remember what Lommy has said, but I don't remember flagging anything. And I think that only leaves Pitch and 'fish leather'.

Which seems like a really weird leap to make, and I don't see anyone reassuring Lommy that yes, 'fish leather' is a known WW concept. So he looks likely to be doing something Cobbler related. But would an actual cobbler just come out and say it?

Okay, checking cross-posts: so fish leather is a thing, Shasta has voted for me, Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent, and
Lommy and Lottie both strongly disagree with his suggestion he might unvote. But I still stand by my read from earlier.

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

For my earlier suspicions, for my known dodgy people-reading abilities, and most especially for not simply talking about unvoting in frustration, but as a plan, I vote:

++Formendacil

(And now to bed/and now to bed!)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?Go to the Mirth page, click the number of posts of this thread, then click the number of posts beside the name of the person.

[Loslote]

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

[Thinlómien]

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 :p)?

Also, if he makes himself suspicious by anything else than his usual suicidal behaviour (such as the use of boots that Rikae picked up), that's fair game. What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.


edit: xed with #150 and onwards

[A Little Green]

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.

Also, everyone is free to make their choices but I agree that abstaining isn't helpful unless you're a wolf. However miserable the odds (and I don't actually think 1/4 is miserable), if we had all decided to abstain the odds would be even worse toMorrow.

Not even trying to understand about fish leather at this point.

[Nogrod]

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?

Formendacil still looks innocentish.
...
Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent

...

For my earlier suspicions [and other reasons]
...
as a plan, I vote


:smokin:

[Blind Guardian]

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!



Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...



I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

++Formendacil for wanting to TALK to the Wolves and wanting us to not vote.

I hope I'm doing this right. My phone is dying. I'll see you guys toMorrow.

X'ed with people and also the site didn't load. Fixing stuff.

[Thinlómien]

Nog, I had the same first reaction to Hui's vote, but you missed the part in the middle:

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along. :confused:


edit: xed with BG

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)

No vote: sally

[Formendacil]

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 :p)?

What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Well, for what it's worth, Nog's argument actually rings true to me... because I'm am ordo and I did have to reread the rules immediately pregame.

Obviously, it would be boring if EVERY game had a Day 1 No-Vote. That's why Mods make rules to the contrary and THAT is why I'm knee deep in apparently being named the village cobbler: because I have to play with a rule I don't know (or remember--I have played few WW games this past half dozen years).

I am mildly tempted to do it anyway, because once you've floated an idea into the world and had it attacked, what is more human than hunkering down and admitting no quarter? But the still small voice protests this won't help the village (mostly because *I* will die, the sole Innocent I know).

But, on the other hand... I have no alternative plan and my newfound enjoyment of WWing again will not be entirely squelched if I open the Dead Thread...

It's literally Nilp or no one as my vote... and Nilp deserves to live if only to thwart his suicidal tendencies.

[Brinniel]

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?
I mean it would be risky for the wolves to bus a packmate as early as Day 1. Of course it's not impossible.

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.
I agree, it does not. But it is also not an indicator of guilt. Hui's change in play style makes me think better of him for at least toDay when there's not much else to go on. I just don't get suspicious vibes of him right now.

Okay, and now I see that Hui started his post with calling Formy innocentish and ended it by voting him...so maybe I should rethink that.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally - none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta - hS (Nilp – 1, hS - 1)
+2312: hS - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 1)
+2325: BG - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 2)

[Nogrod]

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along.
I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

[A Little Green]

I've decided it isn't too late to add another name.

++Pitchwife

Out of the ones I mentioned earlier, I'm most comfortable voting for him. Too tired to think this any further so crossing fingers and toes instead!

[Thinlómien]

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it? Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, a very quick one, because I see posts appearing as I write... however:

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

EDIT: x-ed with a million again

[Rikae]

Too many people either absent or lurking :rolleyes:

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

++Nilp

I think he's fairly likely either a wolf or the cobbler and it's the best lead I have.

Form is my other main suspect but I keep flipflopping about him. Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand". :D

[Loslote]

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

[Loslote]

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

[Kath]

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

Am on phone and can't figure out how to bold.

[Nogrod]

Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?
Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

[Thinlómien]

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.And one for Pitch. And I don't think it's too late to add another name, either.

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)


No vote: sally

15 mins to go

[Thinlómien]

Kath, type without spaces [ b ] [ / b ] around stuff. And similarly "highlight" instead of "b" for the highlighting.

[Nogrod]

Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron


I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

[Brinniel]

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.
I agree with your first sentence. It does seem like an easy bandwagon vote. But I don't think it implies Hui's guilt if BG is a wolf.

[Loslote]

++Legate

His last post struck me as way more suspicious than any of the other candidates. It was full of long words and had the overall effect of hemming and hawing, and majorly pinged my radar.

[Kath]

Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

[Formendacil]

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

So... I know I'm Innocent. I think Nilp a hair more likely to be Innocent than not. I actually think Huin's mid-post flop on me feels more Innocent than Wolf, since I've reasoned my way to different positions mid-post many a time--and I rarely clean the post back up before hitting "post."

Pitchwife might be a hair more evil than not to my gut, but I'm wary of giving him an extra vote that might make me look a Cobbler...

[Macalaure]

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

The way he grabs all the attention makes him a possible cobbler, or maybe a suicidal nightwolf, but I doubt that.

With that conjecture in mind, I had a fresh look at all the people who're interacting with him. I really don't want to put all my notes in here, just kind of the conclusions. The ones that stuck out a little:

Nog - first he's part of the discussion on what wolves do and what they don't and whether and how we should discuss that. Then he quotes half of his posts with the conclusion that he's pointing out he's trying to catch wolves too much. So many quotes for a so-so point.
Rikae - calls him a man on a mission. "Not sure I agree with his conclusion" is the kind of non-statements a wolf might make.
Kath - fake votes for him pushing too much. It seems a bit harsh to put him on the lynching block over without actually committing.
Pitch - comments on a number of things, but nothing of consequence really. Then agrees and adds a little to the point of his paranoia about Lottie. Too lurking around the fringes for my taste.
Shasta - throws a little bit of everything at him and then votes for him for lack of better options, which feels like the easy way out.

None of this feels enough to justify a vote. Might go with Pitch since he's the only one who has gotten votes and I'd like to not lynch Hui, or Form for that matter.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, now I'm thinking Form may be a Cobbler for the no-vote suggestion.

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

It wasn't supposed to be a "A leads to B" thing, I was thinking along the lines that it's been quiet overall, and perhaps if there was nothing big to stir some massive loud debate (provoked by a Cobbler), then the WWs were also lying low. It was more like the observation of current state of things.

Anyways... all Day nothing, now million posts... can't answer anything I wanted and gotta vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some

[Pitchwife]

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?
How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?


IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.


I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves? Which makes me reluctant to vote either Formy or Nilp (although I suppose the latter could be a wolf posing as cobbler...hmm).


Also, BG hopping on the Formy train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*


Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.

[Macalaure]

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

[Loslote]

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

Yeah. I really don't think he's a wolf. :o

[Thinlómien]

8 minutes guys. Not the time for "right now I maybe feel like". Do something before chaos erupts, please.

[Nogrod]

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?
Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

[Brinniel]

I don't really like the voting options so far. I thought Formy seemed a tad suspicious, but I'm having second thoughts. Throwing another candidate into the ring:

++Blind Guardian

For her opportunistic vote.

[Thinlómien]

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG

[Loslote]

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: I trusted but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote.

I would have understood that.

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG


No vote: sally

5 minutes to go.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, actually after what Kath and Brinn just pointed out about BG's vote, I'd almost prefer voting BG, but that's probably not a thing anymore... therefore will simply go with

++Form

It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

[Formendacil]

++ Nilpaurion Felagund


It was that, a self-vote, or a No Vote. I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

Not that Nilp is necessarily guilty, but after fifteen years, he has no one to blame but himself if an Innocent dies on Day 1 because of him.

[Pitchwife]

8 minutes guys. Not the time for "right now I maybe feel like". Do something before chaos erupts, please.
OK.
++Kath

[Macalaure]

++Pitchwife

[Loslote]

If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.

[Brinniel]

Okay, actually after what Kath and Brinn just pointed out about BG's vote, I'd almost prefer voting BG, but that's probably not a thing anymore..
Should've gotten my vote in earlier... :rolleyes:

[Huinesoron]

Couldn't sleep. Looks like I'm dead? Well, for whatever it's worth, I meant 'I suspected him, his answer made me think he was innocent, but people keep saying I have poor judgement so I' ll disregard the latter. '

I' m just an ordinary villager; sorry for being distracting. I'll try to do better as a corpse. :)

[Brinniel]

Anyone else left to vote?

[Loslote]

Couldn't sleep. Looks like I'm dead? Well, for whatever it's worth, I meant 'I suspected him, his answer made me think he was innocent, but people keep saying I have poor judgement so I' ll disregard the latter. '

I' m just an ordinary villager; sorry for being distracting. I'll try to do better as a corpse. :)

I'm pretty sure you are. Sorry. Hope you have a good time in the Dead Thread. :)

[Nogrod]

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either.
Tell me what there is to buy?

[Boromir88]

It is deadline. Cease posting.

By my tally with 4 votes. Huey is to the gallows.

I've been adding to the narration throughout the day. Once I write in the ending shouldn't be waiting too long on the role. Maybe within 5 minutes.

[Boromir88]

The day began not at all the way the town expected. They were supposed to be here to discuss and choose a new leader, but were now expected to vote and kill one of their own.

"I'll make it easy today" said one of them and Nilp went to the gallows and put the rope around his own neck.

"Stop that. You're not sacrificing yourself." said some of them.

"Who are we to stop what he wants?" said some others.

As the day wore on, some suggested trying reason, some were in favor of abstaining and sharing s'mores. But for most of the day no one stopped Nilp from keeping the rope around his neck...until the very last minute.

Enough people started yelling at Nilp to get his head out of there, and despite some resistance, he stepped away.

Some started pushing Form up to the front, then another group started shouting for Huey. Nilp thought he heard his name again and ran up to try to grab the rope again, but he was stopped. It was finally decided Huey, who despite a frantic final minutes seemed to accept his fate.

The town waited around for a several minutes to see if Huey would change into a new form. He did not. The villagers hung their heads and returned home.


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 2. Silence in the town.

Wolves talk and send kill.

Seer send dream.

Ranger guard.

Beast Hunter set your trap.

[Boromir88]

The wolf-pack was in high spirits after getting the innocent Huey lynched, but they really wanted to top off the night with a successful kill. The pack debated through most of the night about who their victim would be. There was even talk of benefits moving to a vegetarian diet, being close to Greenwood the Great! But alas it was not so tonight and their victim was chosen.

They approached the residence and found their target lying fast asleep on her bed, as pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow. Better yet, it appeared she was completely defenseless and the pack would not go hungry tonight.

"She appears to be having such sweet dreams" said one of the werewolves. "Do you think we should wake her?"

Another werewolf tapped her on the shoulder "Wakey, wakey, candied snow flowers and Lottie-pops!"

Loslote awoke, startled seeing 4 snarling figures looming over her. She did not attempt to run however, seemingly knowing what was about to happen. "I am not one of the people that you seek. Dine well. Keep my bones to pick out bits stuck in your teeth! Hate to have one of you discovered for being messy eaters." she giggled sarcastically.

When the village awoke the next day, they knew there was one less of them and discovered Lottie was no longer with them. And they wept for their loss.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

-----

It is Day 2. Werewolves cease chatter.

Townspeople, bring me a lynch in 24 hours. The 2 villagers in the dead thread will have to both vote for one of you for there to be a Medium. If one of you is chosen as the Medium today, it will be revealed in the end of day narration.

[Kath]

Oh dear. Sorry Hui! I think I should have gone with voting Blind Guardian given it was the jump onto the vote that I found suspicious, but when I voted yesterDay it didn't look like there was time for more names to be added to the pile.

And Lottie is an interesting kill. She didn't really stand out to me yesterDay so it will be interesting to look at her posts and see what the wolves might have thought they spotted.

[Blind Guardian]

I typed this at the end of yesterDay. Will fix formatting later.


Also,*BG*hopping on the*Formy*train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*

For her opportunistic vote.

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy. And I stand by my vote. I don’t know if it's a good call yet or not. Time will tell. Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.


Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

I know I am Innocent but now I can say with certainty that Huey and I aren't chatting Wolves, cause it's confirmed that HE'S not a Wolf

Also I'm not a newbie Wolf. I've played as a Wolf before and I remember it VERY well because it ended up VERY badly for me. Everyone voted for me (over something really stupid and not at all a slipup) and I ended up crying in my room for an hour.

[Kath]

Or I guess you could try Formendacil's "talk to them" strategy...seems a little fishy to me though.

So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.
Hui has some suspicion of Lottie based on this - thinking she might be a wolf framing him for acting that very way. He mentions Pitch as noticing Lottie talking about possibly not killing a wolf, and me for saying he's acting that way. Lottie in return thinks he's innocent.

Pitch soft-defends Lottie in post 99.

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers.

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.
Then votes Legate.

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

Well, obviously not a lot to go on. Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

[Rikae]

I remember thinking at DL yesterday that Lottie's posting might attract wolf attention, just because she was so certain and vehement it made her look very innocent.

Actually my mental note was "if Hui is innocent and Lottie's still alive tomorrow, I should probably wonder about *her*".

Edit: x'd with Kath

[Kath]

And to answer this because I noticed my stupid moment ...

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?
This is because it took quite some while after this to realise that it is the person who is chosen by the Dead Thread votee who is called the Medium, not the votee themselves.

[Blind Guardian]

I'm trying to be a bit more active today and get my thoughts out since I won't be around much tomorrow at the end of the Day. (I plan on voting by 12PM AZ time (MST without Daylight Savings)

Right now I'm trying to find a reason for why the Wolves killed Lottie. My first thought was she was killed because of how she voted.

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

It is possible he [Form] might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.


The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

[Blind Guardian]

Now I'm reading Lottie's posts.

The first thing that stands out to me is that she is VERY helpful. Most of her posts are answering other peoples questions. The second most talked about thing by Lottie is the NW and Wolves in general. Was she getting too close to the Wolves or their plans and they lynched her? After that her posts are either asking questions (the "fish leather" thing from post 128), general banter, or joking around.

In post 141 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726329&postcount=141):
Lottie thinks that Form, Pitch, or Nilp are Cobbler hinting, but is okay with voting for Form or Pitch.

Lottie thinks that Huie is Innocent (and she was right).

I do find this quote generally interesting:

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

So the NW... she expects the NW to be "loud and bold" (post 73 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726261&postcount=73)). The only loud and bold person that comes to mind is Nilp, but that's his own damn fault and not a reason to lynch Lottie.

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

++Legate

His last post struck me as way more suspicious than any of the other candidates. It was full of long words and had the overall effect of hemming and hawing, and majorly pinged my radar.

After this the rest of her posts are apologizing to Hu.

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

[Formendacil]

LOSLOTE:

I'm not sure if I'm surprised Lottie was killed or not. I was looking over things during the Night phase hours, and she was on my Question Mark list as someone who had said a lot (she posted 22 times yesterDay, the most in village), but was only quoted or referred to 25 times--the 7th most in the village.

Granted, this is coming from my rather subjectively-determined way of recording things, but in general there is a correlation between the amount someone posted and the amount they were spoken of. For example, Huin posted 18 times, good for a tie with Shasta for 3rd-most, and he was quoted or referred to in 54 posts, which was the most--and that seems about right, since he ended up being the lynchee.

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726342&postcount=154) of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Anyway, does that mean anything now that she's dead? Probably not, though MAYBE if the wolves were looking to kill someone that had left no suspicions back in their direction and they were looking chiefly at people's "here's what I'm thinking about everyone posts", there is a wolf or two hidden in those absences.


HUINESORON:

My records of who mentioned/quoted seem a bit less useful here, since he turned out to be ordinary, and I'm not seeing anything yet in the people who mentioned HIM that reveals anything. As already noted, he was very active yesterday, so there's references to him. The flip-flop on me mid-post, resulting in his vote for me, was weird, but the real value there is in how it got leapt on and became the driving factor for his lynching. Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became.

If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin.


GUT REACTIONS TO HUIN'S LYNCHERS:

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.


OTHER THOUGHTS:

I mentioned that Loslote had struck me as having a somewhat off-kilter relationship between her number of posts and number of quotes/mentions. No one else was as drastic here, but Shasta also stood out as having posted a lot (as noted, third most) but didn't garner much attention--only 18 quotes/mentions by my count, good for 9th place. This might just be because his posting style inflates his post count relative to how much he actually said.

Pitchwife said relatively little (11 posts/9th most) but got a higher amount of attention (28 mentions/quotes - 4th most). I don't have a theory right now for what this might mean.

Kath also said fairly little (9 posts/10th most) but got a good amount of traction (26 mention/quotes - 6th most). She actually NEVER mentions Pitch that I recorded (but I think she doesn't bold names as much as some of us, so I could have missed them in my tally) but *IF* my tally is right, could this mean they're both Wolves? Pitch voted for her and she voted for Huin: could Kath have been subtly avoiding creating any ties to a fellow Wolf while Pitch made sure to set up a bit of an alibi for down the road that was completely safe to do? Kath was never in any danger of dying.

Then there's the lurkers: obviously, we all hope Sally is well enough to give us some posts, but there's also Mac, who has the same number of posts as Sally! Somehow, despite posting as little as Sally, Mac was even more under the radar: 7 mentions/quotes to Sally's 12. Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

Well--and Greenie. She was next-to-last after Mac and Sally in posting and tied with Mac in mentions. Of course, low posting correlates with low mentions, so this isn't a proof of Wolvishness, by any means, but it IS the stratum where a Wolf would love to hide, so worth investigating.

[Blind Guardian]

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726342&postcount=154) of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.


So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.



Sally was mentioned in that post.

Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

I complete agree with you here. Mac needs to post more. I didn't even realize that he was part of this game.

[Macalaure]

Going through the vote count... I didn't realize at the time that I was the last one left to vote! I probably would have voted for Nilp if I had been aware, not that it would have made a difference.

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.
BG because her reason half-relied on early banter. Feeling better after her explanation toDay, though.
Nogrod because he put Hui in the lead over Form and Nilp. This of course depends on Form's and Nilp's role. Nevertheless something felt odd to me about the tone of his suspicions of Hui. Can't put my finger on it.
Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. :D I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh. :p


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong? :eek:

Also, yeah, working on the participation end. Though I don't think I usually top the post count in the best of cases.

[Blind Guardian]

YES HE'S HERE!


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong? :eek:


It was recommended to me prior to playing. I have two computer screens too so one with the Downs and the other with the spreadsheet.

I would love to see everyone else's spreadsheets after this game. :Merisu: Seriously, send me your spreadsheets people!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The plan:
Post this.
Breakfast
Overanalyse this.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally – none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 1)
+2312: hS – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 1)
+2325: BG – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2)
+2334: Greenie – Pitch (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2339: Rikae – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2340: Lommy – Nilp (Nilp – 2, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2346: Nog – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2348: Lottie – Legate (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2348: Kath – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2354: Brinn – BG (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Legate – Form (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Form – Nilp (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Pitch – Kath (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)
+2356: Mac – Pitch (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 2, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)

[Formendacil]

[QUOTE=Blind Guardian;726433]Sally was mentioned in that post./QUOTE]

Whoops! You're right.



And, re: Mac on the subject of spreadsheets...

Yup. Never ever done that before in WW, but there's a first time for everything, and I've been learning a lot more in Excel the last few years. It's proving fun in an inane, statistical way.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Twelve minutes before the deadline, with Kath giving hS his fourth vote, there were five votes left. Form and I have two votes. Aside from Legate voting for Form and Form voting for me (<3), there was no serious attempt to overturn the hS-waggon.

If Form or I were wolves, then this is fraught situation. Assuming the wolves have already voted, or even assuming that one of them is yet to vote, then if the four people decided to cast all their votes for either Form or myself, there’s no saving us. Assuming three goodies and two baddies left, the two baddies could still give hS the conclusive lead in the tally.

Now, of course, if none of the baddies were ever in any serious trouble, then that last stretch could go all over the place and not change the status quo established twelve minutes ago. Which is what seems to have happened.

I’ll look at the hS-waggon and the other sub-waggons next.

[satansaloser2005]

It's alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726342&postcount=154) of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally.Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

[Macalaure]

Why Lottie?

There's the usual Day1 goofing around, then some strategy talk... she doesn't really get into the thick of it until about an hour before the deadline. She calls Hui out for being paranoid, but is (one of) the first to say it's giving an innocent vibe.

She entertains the thought that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could be the cobbler.

#154 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726342&postcount=154) looks distinctly non-seerish, as not one name is singled out.

Then she picked up on Legate with some determination and votes for him. She spends the rest of the Day1 trying to save Hui.


If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it. I admittedly didn't read through every early post. Did anybody see anything that one could interpret as a gifted hint? Or did the wolves just throw us the person with the highest post count so the village would have to talk about something that would lead them the wrong way? In that case the ones she listed as innocent - Greenie, Rikae, Brinn, Shasta, and BG and Sally to a lesser extent would look worse, though that's too large of a group to be useful.

I feel like I'm trying to read too much into this. :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.
I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too? :rolleyes:

Yeah, maybe you can call mine a bit of a throwaway, but I didn't really care to vote for any of the options on the table. And I honestly thought that there were more people left to vote (I forget this is a smaller village compared to last game).

Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?
Not me! I usually at most just scribble handwritten notes when I play. There may have been a game or few in the past where I tracked quotes from players in a word documents, but never spreadsheets. I deal enough with spreadsheets at work...y'all are crazy! :p

I see Formy is now using statistics/math to analyze posts. Blegh!

[Macalaure]

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too? :rolleyes:

Yes, but I know I'm innocent. :p

[Blind Guardian]

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?


Ohh shoot I forgot the seer was a role. BRB gonna read the sticky role post again.

Everything below this line was added in various edits:

I thought the roles were Wolves, Cobble, Ranger, BH, Villagers. My spreadsheet doesn't even have seer as role on it :( It has failed me...


Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?
Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, as always.)

First vote: Shasta
22:16 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726307#post726307): Wonders if hS was the Nightmare Wolf.

22:18 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726308#post726308): Clarified his thoughts above.
Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

2246 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726323#post726323): Voted for him.
While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

__________________

Interlude: Huinesoron's vote post
2312 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726340#post726340): Significant in light of later events.

__________________

Second vote: Rikae
2227 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726317#post726317): Shares thoughts on what appears to be the Three Cobblers + hS.
Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience

(Quick summary: Lottie [1836 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726261#post726261)] expects the Nightmare Wolf 'to play as loud and bold as possible'. hS [2018 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726275#post726275)] posts a Kath description of him [1901 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726266#post726266)] that he paraphrases as his being described as playing 'loud and bold', and thought that it was a setup for bringing down suspicion on him.)

2339 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726357#post726357): Votes for him.
Too many people either absent or lurking :rolleyes:

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

__________________

Third vote: Nogrod
2321 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726345#post726345): Noticed irregularities in hS's vote post immediately.
Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?
Formendacil still looks innocentish.
...
Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent

...

For my earlier suspicions [and other reasons]
...
as a plan, I vote

:smokin:

2325 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726347#post726347): Lommy responds to Nog's suspicion.

2332 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726353#post726353): Nogrod clarifies his suspicion.
Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along.I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

This discussion continues in Lommy's 2336 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726355#post726355) post and Nog's 2343 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726362#post726362) post. Quoting the latter:
Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

2346 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726366#post726366): Votes for him.
Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron

I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

2349 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726373#post726373): Pitch comments on Nog's suspicions (among other things).
How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.

2354 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726377#post726377): Nog replies.
Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.
__________________

Fourth vote: Kath

1846 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726262#post726262): Shares 'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.'
+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

2343 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726361#post726361): Surmises a BG-hS connexion.
Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

2348 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726369#post726369): Votes for him.
Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

__________________

Others' comments on the Huiagon:

2351 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726374#post726374): From Mac:
I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

2352 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726375#post726375): Lottie concurs.

2355 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726383#post726383): Form's vote post comments on hS.
I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

2358 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726386#post726386): Lottie comments on the absolute state of the voting at that point.
If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.
This is a fitting last part. I believe that this is a cogent summary of the voting on DAY 1. It reinforces my belief (q.v. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726438#post726438)) that none of the Wolves were in any danger of the noose.

(inb4 'of course you'd say that, you're one of the suspects!')

hS's four votes were accrued over about an hour, I got two votes in 15 minutes (not including my vote), and Form's three votes were spread over a 40-odd-minute period. Considering that there were 14 votes within the last 74 minutes (and 13 within the last 48), a handful of votes should not have been decisive.

And as mentioned in the post linked to above, Form and I got votes after hS's last, but the outcome was unchanged.

As for the Huiagon itself, it has been built upon what I would assume are typical DAY 1 reasons for voting someone. There were up to four, ah, distinctive personalities that were presented for voting, and he was the unlucky winner.

[A Little Green]

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

It is possible he [Form] might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.
The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.I do think that's a stretch - but I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. :p It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet. But whether they'd want to draw attention to Legate in this way when he's so far skated by more or less unsuspected is another matter. They'd have had to be pretty sure about Lottie to risk it. Another feasible scenario is the one Brinn mentioned where they thought Lottie's defence of Huin looked like a Seer trying to save an ordo she had dreamed about. I agree that this is more likely.

Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?
Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we. Hang on, what? Sure, the wolves don't know who the Gifteds are. But why would that mean they'd purposefully go after whoever looked most likely to be an ordinary villager instead of trying to catch a Gifted, even if they could be wrong? Whoever they kill (even if they accidentally kill their Cobbler) will count as an innocent in the tally anyway, but if their victim is an ordo the benefits stop there.

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little but I'm trying to be sensible about it given how badly things went last time this happened! Meanwhile, looks like Form has taken the spreadsheet thing to a whole new level. Interestingly though, he talks about absences being significant and himself omits BG, Brinn and Lommy. :p

Oh, and another thing re. yesterDay's voting (sorry this is becoming a bit of a stream of consciousness post). I thought it was curious that the last four votes came within a minute of each other and all for different people - Legate for Form (3), Form for Nilp (3), Pitch for Kath, and Mac for Pitch (2). Presumably quite a bit of cross-posting here. The thing is, these four could still have swayed the lynch almost any way they wanted. I agree that the lack of anything like coordination or attempts to convince others could point to no wolves being in the immediate line of fire. The last two especially look somewhat safe, but then, given the likelihood of cross-posting, they wouldn't have known what everyone else was doing - and if these last four voters had all gone for the same person who had even just one vote, that person would have ended on the lynch block instead of Huin.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right... so first mandatory question - why Lottie?

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?). Unless of course they took her overall fairly confident tone for Seerishness and thought they just hit a jackpot by killing the Seer after she just dreamed a person who ended up lynched. It's possible, but it's a pile of big "if"s already.

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

She indicated her thoughts about all people in the greatest length in this post:

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

The thing is, Lottie did not single out any person that would seem like "I dreamed of this one". Would it be enough if a Wolf was randomly mentioned in the last group? One could similarly say that any of the former group would be unlikely to kill Lottie because she would have just considered them innocent. Perhaps if we wanted to distill some bare minimum out of this, then it would be that at least one of the people categorised by Lottie in one of the groups is correct. But that's basically nothing.

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

Even if that was not a factor, however, that means however another thing - which may be perhaps more worth considering - that not only did the Wolves think Lottie a good pick, but that they did not consider anybody else a better one. Now one could probably spend a Day analysing all the permutations of this, but it may be something worth keeping in mind.

Otherwise: the lynch yesterDay. Given the high amount of votes, I can imagine the Hui bandwagon being a good place for Wolves to jump on. However, that isn't to say Wolves wouldn't have happily cast votes elsewhere, especially given the spread. Will have a break, then look at these.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, two more observations still about Lottie:
I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.Tell me what there is to buy?
Just before the DL, she had this short exchange with Nog. I am wondering if that could in any way have been a factor, since she never got to finish that sentence. Plus, her apology to Hui could have also been seen as another sign of innocence.

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, basically all the votes in the Huiwagon look like possibly Wolvish. Shasta's vote started the whole thing and at that point there was probably no telling how things would go, so one cannot place very much weight on it either way.

Rikae's vote evened it up with Form (Form still being in the lead). This would be significant if Form is a Wolf, a way to build a counter-wagon. There were, however, many votes uncast at that point yet and quite a big spread, even though Form was the one (even after Rikae's vote) to be first on the chopping block.

Nog basically pushed Hui into the lead. If either of the other candidates at that point was a Wolf, he could have done that to save a packmate. Another thing to consider is that Form and Nilp had been acting or been considered in some way cobbler-ish yesterDay. So even if neither of them was a Wolf, a Wolf might have protected them simply to keep a presumed ally around. Incidentally, that being said, Nog was also soft-core "defending" Form/potentially diverting attention by analysing Hui's post about Form (that eventually led him to vote him). Granted, Hui's post was phrased in a very strange way - but that would have made it a good target for a Wolf (who would know Hui was innocent) to latch onto.

Kath's vote was kind of a nail in the coffin (but that still could have been overturned - and yes, I also think it's of note that it wasn't). Now she explained why she did not vote BG, and yes, in retrospect, there seemed to have been quite some potential for lynching BG which disappeared because people started to decide their votes very late.

Which by the way brings to mind - yesterDay evening was at least for me horribly rushed, like all the Day nothing and suddenly two hours before DL everyone starts posting. Thankfully, toDay looks better, and obviously now we have more info to go with than yesterDay. But it would be nice if we could also kind of come up with at least some basic ideas a bit more early, and not just before DL.

Otherwise: there were quite a few "throwaway" votes in the last minutes. At that point, it is theoretically possible Wolves would have been happy with Hui being lynched but did not want to contribute to it any more to avoid being blamed for it. Still, there would have been the chance to bring someone else into lead - which makes me wonder whether one of the other bigger bandwagons was for a Wolf after all (Form or Nilp).

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Let's say it's late DAY 1, and you're the Seer. The person you dreamt of is likely (but doesn't yet look guaranteed) to be lynched. How far, exactly, would you go to save that person? Would you post like this?
I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him.
So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin.
Yeah. I really don't think [Huin]'s a wolf. :o

Even if that person was all but lynched, would you make posts like this?I'm pretty sure you are. Sorry. Hope you have a good time in the Dead Thread. :)

I'd go on a limb and say it would be remiss of me as a Seer on DAY 1 to make comments like this when hardly any vote has been cast yet:
Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you [Huin] as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.
(This was posted three hours and 33 minutes before the deadline (and the only vote on the board was my Nilping.))

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?

[Nogrod]

It seems Greenie has opened a veritable Pandora's Box: spreadsheets, post-number and comment-number analysis, voting-minute comparisons... :)

Well, I'll still stick with a piece of paper and a pen.


First of all I must share the view expressed by a few already, that it seems likely the wolves were sitting back quite comfortably in the end of the Day. Especially in the light of Greenie's point, that the last votes could have been (or at least some of them probably were) crossposts. That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.


On Lottie then.

With all the possible caveats considered, the wolves do want in the end to get rid of the Seer as soon as possible. Just remember the last game where the wolves would have won hands down if they had managed to find the Seer. So I'd claim that even if they have no clue as to who that might be, they'll make their pick keeping their thumbs up that they get the Seer. I mean, that's the consideration they keep in mind all the time.

So we have two theories on Lottie's "seerishness" thus far, expressed nicely by Brinn and Greenie (who had doubts about the validity of the reasoning she presented).

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet.

Brinn is correct that the Seer seldom hits a wolf on the first Night and thence it is much more probable that if the Seer leaves hints about someone, that one is an innocent person. But, I'd add, that if someone sending any "seer-vibes" happens to have picked one of them, they are more or less forced to act on it.

There is also this:
I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.
To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

Yes, it may be they were going to and fro between the two, and then decided on Lottie for one reason or another, but it makes me a bit less confident on this explanation.


Which brings me to the Legate-wolf -scenario.

Legate himself said:
I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.
I tend to disagree with the reasoning here. If Lottie had suspected Legate for longer, but especially with some decent reasoning behind it, then there wouldn't have been a good reason for them to suspect her especially seerish. But Lottie did quite an awkward, one might even say fabricated, case for Legate and sticked to it with some confidence (or with what looked like confidence).

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.

So her just coming up with it late in the Day, and with non-existant reasons, actually makes her look more seerish than not - in case Legate is a wolf, that is.


On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.

[Nogrod]

Just a short add-on.

I see I X'd with Legate and Nilp - and there are some thoughts to add.

First of all I had forgotten how often Lottie said she thought hS looks innocent to her. Reading those made me think whether I was wrong saying Mac would have looked like a Seer as well (or even more) if the mark of seerishness for the wolves was defending Hui's innocence. Although there still is the fact that Lottie uses quite a lot of space explaining why she thinks Hui's innocent while Mac just states he takes a "leap of faith" on it. Hmm...

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?
Well, that is a question that seems to have one clear answer - and that is that Lottie voted Legate even if there seemed to be no real possibility of Legate being lynched instead of making sure or even trying to aid saving hS she so strongly felt innocent.

Although it must be added, that hS was not like lynched at the time Lottie voted - he was leading the tally but there were a handful of votes yet to come. But anyway.

Hard to say.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.Glad to hear you come to roughly the same conclusion I did--although you could also be snared in that very trap.

These were two of Lottie's strong (DAY 1-strong, that is) suspicions:
Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.Already well covered. She eventually voted for Legate.

Et l'autre........... c'est toi, Nogrod!
Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.The use of 'radar' and 'closer look' might resemble Seer-ish clues. On the other hand, this level of obviousness seems about as naive as the repeated insistence on Hui's innocence, a point I've already raised.

[Pitchwife]

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything.
That may be so, but how are we supposed to know you aren't making it up after the fact?
I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy.
You never mentioned anything about suspecting Hui either.

Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.

I concur with this.


Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.
I think this makes sense, although you neglect to mention that she also mentioned both you and Mac as alternative candidates for a vote.


The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.
It is, because a lot of people do that regardless of role. It's a normal way of playing the game.



I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.
I notice BG keeps talking about lynching when she actually means Night-killing. I'm actually inclined to think she wouldn't be this confused as a wolf. I still don't get the 'most likely to be a Villager' thing though.



Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.
Throwing stones from inside the glass house?
I admit it was effectively throwaway, but I didn't realise it at the time. I lost track of time trying to wrap my mind around Nog's explanation for his Hui-suspicion (which I'm still not sure makes any sense), and when I noticed how late it was I voted without checking the tally. If I'd seen Brinn's vote before posting my own, I might have voted BG instead. Both Form and Nilp seemed more cobblerish than wolvish to me, whereas I thought Kath could be a quiet wolf.


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?
No. Never. Bothering with WW and Excel at the same time? Madness.


One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?).
I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

[Formendacil]

Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

Ha! That's what I get focusing in one post at a time, looking for bolded names. That would certainly be the easiest way to fill that gap.

The Loslote Was Killed For Looking Like A Seer case has merit enough to consider. Honestly, though, it makes me wonder less about the Wolves--because OF COURSE they'll take a gamble on a Seer (though it's worth double-checking if it leaves a trail back to them conventionally)--but about Loslote. In other words, since she's not actually the Seer, is she an Ordo who got misinterpreted, an Ordo who deliberately cast some distractions out there (an Anti-Cobbler, so to speak, to protect the real Seer, whomever they were), or the Cobbler?

I just checked the Planning Thread main post--I didn't check the whole thread--but it didn't actually say what I've been assuming: is the Cobbler actually revealed in death? I keep assuming that it's not and it's the one role revealed after the game is over... but am I just making that up? The only relevance here is that knowing the Cobbler is dead would mean we don't have to worry about one, but the import for the Dead Thread is huge. Having not seen anything in the Planning Thread, I assume I am making this up...

...the upshot of which is that Loslote is a Cobbler could be scratched from my list of options.


Anyway, while there may be something to be gleaned, it's probably wrong to focus on Loslote's reasons; the Wolves and their possible reasons will save the village more.

I still think there's something weird in the nexus of Pitch and Kath, but I don't know if it's both of them or just one...

More anon.

[Boromir88]

I went with a little tiny difference that I preferred more:

Seer (1)- chooses 1 person to dream of and discover their identity each night. If the Seer dreams the Cobbler, they will only see the cobbler as an "ordinary villager."

I read my way back when first game playing as the seer. When I dreamed of Durelin as an ordinary villager and she ended up being the cobbler. Some tiny quirk I prefer to go with...since the cobbler counts as an ordinary villager in the tally, the Seer would presumably only 'see' the cobbler is a villager.

But anyway, the cobbler is revealed if sent to the dead thread.

[Formendacil]

I went with a little tiny difference that I preferred more:



I read my way back when first game playing as the seer. When I dreamed of Durelin as an ordinary villager and she ended up being the cobbler. Some tiny quirk I prefer to go with...since the cobbler counts as an ordinary villager in the tally, the Seer would presumably only 'see' the cobbler is a villager.

But anyway, the cobbler is revealed if sent to the dead thread.

Hmmm, maybe some misremembering of that was the cause of my invented rules.

Well, we can definitely count Loslote as a Known Innocent, then. Her vote for Legate probably bears some considering in light of her death, but it's likely the Seer hints that led to that rather than the vote as the driving factor.

[A Little Green]

Re: Huin voters –

I think Shasta's vote comes across as the least fishy of the lot, though admittedly this is simply due to timing; it was the first real vote in the game (sorry Nilp, not counting yours :p), and before most of the action happened. But also his tone where he admits that Huin’s response made him feel slightly better but Huin’s still the one he’s most comfortable voting, looks genuine to me.

Rikae says Huin’s paranoia over Lottie and Kath setting him up looks like a guilty conscience, and is second to vote for him. Merits extra attention based on vote placement if Form or Nilp are wolves, but I’m not sure how likely this is given the general feel of the voting yesterDay. I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way – Huin would have been a very easy target for a wolf looking for a decent D1 argument against someone, but I could just as well see innocent Rikae finding him the most suspicious of the lot given how generally uneventful the Day was.

Nog votes for Huin after a case against him and several disclaimers on how little there is to go on. This combination looks pretty incriminating – textbook hand-washing wolf – but almost too much so to be true. He’s also quick to turn on Legate based on the Lottie kill, and while the argument has merit, it doesn’t make me feel much better about Nog; if the Huin lynch incriminated a wolf (or more than one), and they killed Lottie for the Huin comments rather than the Legate ones, setting Legate up would be a good way of distracting the village from the Huin lynchers. Then again, the argument about Legate seems plausible too. Could even be wolf-on-wolf? :eek: :eek: (Sorry, speculation mode went into overdrive.)

Kath seals Huin’s fate with a fourth vote. There were still plenty of people left to vote though, so she wouldn’t necessarily have known this. Her vote was certainly consistent with her earlier pre-vote post where she said she’d like to go for either Huin or Nilp. That post was one of the starting points of the whole suspicion on Huin, and I could see Kathwolf leaving that to take root and then come back later and vote for him because she suspected him all along so she can’t be faulted for jumping on a bandwagon. But as with Nog, this looks so contrived it makes me wonder if Kathwolf would really do this. She would have known that orchestrating an innocent lynch is bound to get her noticed early on when normally she’s capable of skating by quite comfortably for Days before anyone even considers the possibility of her being guilty.

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list. Nog and Kath look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true. Rikae makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on the Hui-wagon (not Hui-agon, which would be an ancient Greek sports contest involving Hui or held in his honour):

Kath
'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions': I don't like the disclaimer, it sounds she doesn't want to be held accountable for what follows. Then:
+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.The first part of this sentence describes Hui's behaviour correctly, the second half doesn't. He engaged people and gave his reads on them based on how they reacted, so I think he said quite a bit. It's also how I remember innocentHui playing in our first game together. Also, 'being loud but not saying much' is a pretty generic reason for suspecting someone. All of this looks to me like a quiet wolf fabricating a suspicion to fall back on later.

Shasta
'Hui's way of playing is likely to get him voted, NW wants to get lynched early, so Hui could be the NW.' Fair enough so far, although I'm not sure Hui was really a more likely NW than, say, Nilp* or maybe even Formy (actually if the NW plays loud bold & crazy in order to get lynched early, they might easily be mistaken for a chaotic cobbler).

The following 'I liked his response but I'll vote him anyway' doesn't feel right at all.

Rikae
Thought Hui's paranoia about a Lottie-Kath conspiracy against him 'looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience'. This is actually the only of the four Hui voters whose reasoning I find sound, because I thought the same at the time, although the following conversation between Hui and Lottie made me feel better about him.

Nog
Found or construed an apparent self-contradiction or slip in Hui's post leading up to his vote for Formy, which I don't think was there, or only could have looked that way if you only read that one post of Hui's and ignored the whole previous interaction between them. Defended his reading by much linguistic hair-splitting which still gives me a headache. In a way this is very much standard Nog, but it also looks forced to me.

If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

I'll be busy the next couple of hours but will be back in the European evening.

_________________


*I see he's cast off the chaotic cobbler cloak, that's a good thing. What kind of creature emerges from underneath remains to be seen.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It's still hard to reconcile these two things in my head:
The primary goal of the baddies in the opening stages of the game is to kill the Seer.
Lottie seemed a bit too obvious to be a Seer (as I've argued in my last two posts).
But then it came to me: What if there were no other possible candidate? What if none of the rest of the villagers got anything right?

This hypothesis does thrust these two posts into the spotlight:
I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

The way he grabs all the attention makes him a possible cobbler, or maybe a suicidal nightwolf, but I doubt that.
I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.(These two being Mac's second and third posts in the game. Btw, Nog has already touched upon the second post on his post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726452#post726452).)

The earlier of those posts (made 11 minutes before the deadline) post-dated three of Lottie's posts on hS (which I quoted here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=726451#post726451)), if that is of any significance.

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?

__________________

Also, re spreadsheets (I had wanted to comment on this but I keep forgetting to add it at the end of my posts):
If I open a spreadsheet my keyboard turns Japanese, so unless I wish to write comments like:
フォームちゃんはおかしいだけど好き。 (Form-chan is acting strange but I still love him.)
I'd rather stick to good old Notepad(++).

I'll try to get a few hours of sleep before the inevitable four-page fireworks.

[Macalaure]

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726449&postcount=228) read like a paraphrase of my #222 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726441&postcount=222) with a higher word count?

I agree with Nilp's point on Lottie's defense of Hui not looking seerish.

That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.

Let's say one of Nilp or Form is a wolf. In that case, the voting at one point was close enough as to be worrisome. The question is, if you are a fellow wolf who hasn't voted yet, do you vote for Hui to make sure your fellow survives, knowing that your own vote is going to get major scrutiny the next Day, or do you take the calculated risk and hope for the best. Especially if your fellow self-voted! I don't think we can deduce anything about Nilp or Form from yesterDay's voting.

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.
True, but in that case seer-Lottie would have been very unsubtle about it.


And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.

[Brinniel]

Hang on, what? Sure, the wolves don't know who the Gifteds are. But why would that mean they'd purposefully go after whoever looked most likely to be an ordinary villager instead of trying to catch a Gifted, even if they could be wrong? Whoever they kill (even if they accidentally kill their Cobbler) will count as an innocent in the tally anyway, but if their victim is an ordo the benefits stop there.
Exactly what I was getting at. BG's reasoning doesn't make any sense.

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.
I do agree with this.

I notice BG keeps talking about lynching when she actually means Night-killing. I'm actually inclined to think she wouldn't be this confused as a wolf.
That did cross my mind. But this is simply a matter of terminology so I could perhaps see a wolf who hasn't played in a long time getting the words mixed up too. I find a lot of BG's reasoning to be very strange (i.e. why Lottie was killed). I'm not sure if she is simply a confused ordo or deliberately trying to mislead. Perhaps another cobbler? :p

And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.
This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

Nog is more concerning to me right now. I won't do another Hui voter analysis since there's enough already out there, but I do think between the timing and reasoning, his vote is most suspicious among the four. I also don't like his pushing of the Legate-wolf theory.

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.
I see Legate brought this up earlier too. Could a Nog-wolf been worried that a Lottie-seer would dream of him next?

[Pitchwife]

Just popping in briefly to note a few things:

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.
[...]

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.
This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*

It has been discussed (by I think Nilp, but not only) that the lack of any concerted action at the end of yesterDay's voting could indicate that none of the wolves were in danger. That is of course possible, but I don't think we should take it for granted when there's a wolf in this game whom the pack wouldn't at all mind putting on the dead thread. If one of the other lynch candidates, i.e. either Form or Nilp, was the NW, why would the pack have tried to save them? And that's even supposing there were at least one or two wolves left among the late voters, which is far from certain.

Am I paranoid
Yes.

or does Legate's #228 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726449&postcount=228) read like a paraphrase of my #222 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=726441&postcount=222) with a higher word count?

Also yes.

[Nogrod]

Just popped in to see if anything is going on... well, basically no. I agree the last game was a bit too verbiose, but this is kind of streching it to the other extreme.


I also don't like his pushing of the Legate-wolf theory.
Well, what would you like me to do to be more in your liking? :)

Sadly Lottie's death is the only fact we have relating to the identities of the wolves - with the reasonable assumption, that they were trying to find the Seer. There is little else to discuss right now. And the "Legate-theory" seems to me more plausible than the "Hui-theory".

I'll be back actually playing the game later in the evening and will try to look for other subjects / other points of view. I'm not any happier to discuss only one issue. But yes, hopefully later toDay, with better time.


This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).
Maybe I just don't get what you mean here, or then you're really trying to make something perfectly natural look like something sinister on purpose? If one speculates whom the wolves might have looked at as a Seer-candidate, they don't look for their fellow-wolves: so you have to assume everyone an innocent while speculating that.

I mean, should one go like: "hmmm, who might the wolves have thought is the seer? X seemed to make some seerish comments, but no, I think s/he might be a wolf, so that's not a possible scenario"????? :rolleyes:

I see Legate brought this up earlier too. Could a Nog-wolf been worried that a Lottie-seer would dream of him next? I could have been, indeed. Well, especially if Legate and me would both have been wolves, we would had definitively jumped on Lottie with no hesitation.

There's just one crucial "but" though...


Anyway, that's actually quite a nice theory. We should put it forwards as the third option-theory? The wolves and I do know it's not true, but to all you others it might make sense - and the wolves might love to have a go with it.


EDIT: X'd with Pitch - heh, basically the same opening...

[Thinlómien]

Aaaand I'm here. Not really surprised by Hui's innocence, nor super surprised to see Lottie gone - I mean she didn't attract much suspicion nor do any stunts that would have overtly screamed ordo. Should have a look at both deaths, there might be something interesting - there was very little drive in the lynch in any direction yesterDay and I'm as usual assuming that the wolves are gunning for the seer.

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.Agreed. If you compare it to the last game, it's actually quite striking - we had a very action-packed Day1 with two competing bandwagons and neither of them was even for a wolf.

Looking at the tally, the only thing that really stands out to me is that if Form is a wolf, we should look at Nogrod and Kath.

Also, looking at Nilp's vote analysis, Shasta and Rikae's reasonings seem pretty innocent to me, Nogrod and Kath's leave me rather undecided. I maintain that Kath seems a lot more cheerful than last game when she was a wolf (understandable is she's innocent now, at least I tend to be less tense and more happy to play as an ordo :p), but perhaps she just got more used to wolfing and is more chill now? Anyway, I find it a bit worriesome that I don't find any of the Hui voters too suspicious, because logic says they would have been involved (if only for the reason that Hui was a popular suspect in the village so it would have been a "socially acceptable" pick).

Just before the DL, she had this short exchange with Nog. I am wondering if that could in any way have been a factor, since she never got to finish that sentence. Plus, her apology to Hui could have also been seen as another sign of innocence.Wait, what? "Sign of innocence"? The wolves would know she's innocent anyway... or are you saying Lottie made herself look so innocent they had to kill her off? That sounds extremely unlikely.

I don't think Lottie looked too seerish in either how she defended Huin (the "hope you have a good time in the dead thread" is a tad too much attention-drawing) or how she suspected Legate (would a seer stick her neck out like tha if there's no chance to get her dreamed wolf lynched that Day anyway?) but obviously the wolves and I don't think alike. Something to chew on.

(These two being Mac's second and third posts in the game. Btw, Nog has already touched upon the second post on his post here.)

The earlier of those posts (made 11 minutes before the deadline) post-dated three of Lottie's posts on hS (which I quoted here), if that is of any significance.

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?Because Mac is a wolf? That would make sense, but to be fair he doesn't give me very wolfy vibes. (Then again, last game he did and turned out to be innocent. :rolleyes: )

And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.True as well. Or perhaps a wolf who doesn't care about (looking like he's) outing the seer to the wolves because it doesn't cross his mind.

So +1 to this too:

For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

It has been discussed (by I think Nilp, but not only) that the lack of any concerted action at the end of yesterDay's voting could indicate that none of the wolves were in danger. That is of course possible, but I don't think we should take it for granted when there's a wolf in this game whom the pack wouldn't at all mind putting on the dead thread. If one of the other lynch candidates, i.e. either Form or Nilp, was the NW, why would the pack have tried to save them? And that's even supposing there were at least one or two wolves left among the late voters, which is far from certain.This is also a fair point.

[Thinlómien]

Hmm. Having read everything, basically more than half of the village give me actively innocent vibes, which is worriesome. (I mean, more than half of the village ARE innocent, but I doubt I'm very accurate. :p)

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

and I'm likely to vote one of them toDay. The one who stands out to me the most is probably Nogrod, who seems to be contrivedly making mountains out of molehills (yes, I know we don't have much to go on, but there's a fabricated undertone to his speculations) and a little tense too. I know he prefers to be innocent so being a wolf could totally make him act like this.

Legate, Sally, and Brinn I'd all like to hear more from.

Form necessarily not :p but I'm flipflopping on whether I just suspect him because I never see eye to eye with him in ww games, or if he's actually fishy, or both.

I am a bit worried about how quiet the game is (are we all exhausted from last game? tbh I might be a little, and of course, I have been quite busy with work - whoever invented weekend shifts should be canceled btw) and that the wolves might be happy to keep it that way. Let's not forget there are FOUR of them, which is quite a big chunk of us. On that note, we'd really better catch one toDay - but nobody seems much panicking about that?

Also it really stands out to me that the game has been very "diplomatic" so far - last game we had strong suspicions flying around all the time since Day1 basically. Now it's eeriely quiet. Are the usual controversial players trying to lay low? What's up?

[A Little Green]

Is it just me or is Nog acting weird?
Sadly Lottie's death is the only fact we have relating to the identities of the wolves - with the reasonable assumption, that they were trying to find the Seer. There is little else to discuss right now. And the "Legate-theory" seems to me more plausible than the "Hui-theory".

I'll be back actually playing the game later in the evening and will try to look for other subjects / other points of view. I'm not any happier to discuss only one issue. But yes, hopefully later toDay, with better time.
Sure, Lottie’s death is the most substantial thing we have. But there is also a perfectly legitimate reason to analyse yesterDay’s voting and especially the Huin lynch, and “there is little else to discuss right now” sounds a lot like an attempt to ignore this topic completely. I mean, I could see why innocent Nog wouldn’t be very keen on discusing the lynch, or why he’d be biased to think that it was misguided but benign. But the combination of downplaying all discussion of a lynch that looks incriminating for him, and pressing attention on Legate instead, looks a bit too deliberate to be innocent. But then, this would also be pretty brazen behaviour for a Nogwolf, especially this early in the game. He says he’ll be back to try to look for other subjects or points of view, and I hope he does because his current one is making me very uneasy.

That said – flip-flop alert – I do think the argument against Legate is solid enough to merit going back and having a read through his posts. Back soon.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Let's say one of Nilp or Form is a wolf. In that case, the voting at one point was close enough as to be worrisome. The question is, if you are a fellow wolf who hasn't voted yet, do you vote for Hui to make sure your fellow survives, knowing that your own vote is going to get major scrutiny the next Day, or do you take the calculated risk and hope for the best. Especially if your fellow self-voted! I don't think we can deduce anything about Nilp or Form from yesterDay's voting.
That is a bit too decisive "no" to my liking. We can extrapolate likely scenarios. This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.

I could have been, indeed. Well, especially if Legate and me would both have been wolves, we would had definitively jumped on Lottie with no hesitation.

There's just one crucial "but" though...


Anyway, that's actually quite a nice theory. We should put it forwards as the third option-theory? The wolves and I do know it's not true, but to all you others it might make sense - and the wolves might love to have a go with it.
Okay, wait, what? I am absolutely not sure what to make of this. Why would you say something like that? Unless a) you are a Cobbler, b) you are a Wolf trying to drag me down with you by association? Or what?!?

Now I'm really thinking the reason for Lottie's death might really be her last point at Nog and now that people noticed it, he's preparing himself a collateral.

Wait, what? "Sign of innocence"? The wolves would know she's innocent anyway... or are you saying Lottie made herself look so innocent they had to kill her off? That sounds extremely unlikely.

"Sign of innocence" as in further underlining everything that I have listed before, going along with her possible decisive, Seerish vibe, whether we think that her defending Hui was too obvious or not. The WWs did not have much more information than we did, they obviously had to decide based on something.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and Greenie

[Rikae]

I haven't had time to go back and reread day 1 looking at Lottie through "wolf eyes" as I meant to, but I have been thinking about her comments about Legate and Nog and here's where I arrived.

If I were a wolf-Legate, her shift at last minute would certainly have been alarming, but my likely conclusion would be either she's a) a seer who hasn't dreamt me yet but is likely to, or b) a perceptive ordo. In the first case I'd be as good as dead, in the latter, my best chance of survival would be to not kill her immediately. I would see little harm in letting her live another day. for observation, on the off chance it was b) and I'd get out of it unscathed.

I'm really not buying (lots of that going on, is this a village meeting or a market?) Nog's theory that Lottie would have looked like a seer who dreamed Legate already. If she wanted to hint, she'd have been way more subtle, not ignored him all day and then painted a big target on herself at deadline.

Now, Nog is another matter. If I were a Nogwolf, there would be every reason to kill Lottie, both as a potential seer and as someone the village was likely to treat as a semi-known innocent toDay, and little reason not to, as it doesn't draw attention to him nearly as dramatically as to Legate.

Of course this mostly applies to any other wolf as well. I'm going to need to go back and look at what Lottie said about those she found innocentish, I think.

But for now, -1 wolf point to Legate, +1 wolf point to Nogrod. Google says that's a neighborhood in Chicago.

Also, spreadsheets? :D Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?
As for me, I have them going for diet/weight/exercise, food storage & mead brewing, and that's enough. My WW notes are in word documents, which I've just started trying to organize with a system of folders and links. I was telling Mac the other day that I'd like to calculate, for the frequent players, "scores" for their resilience, persuasiveness, perceptiveness, etc. in previous games but I'm having a hard time figuring out which data to use. Persuasiveness is especially hard. I want to know who's good at convincing others to vote for someone, but how do you quantify "trying to convince"? Just voting for the lynchee or mentioning them isn't enough ... it will require more thought ...

Edit: X'd with Green and Leg

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A short list for now...

Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

I'm going to air my head a little now, and if there isn't a terrible post barrage by the time I'm back, I might want to look back at Nog's and BG's posts especially if I have time, to try it with a bit of distance.

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae