Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Rikae]

McCaber, could you elaborate? Why do you find both Nerwen and Mac suspicious? What doesn't match up about Greenie's posts?

[Gwathagor]

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Sally's over-the-top posting style is so completely impenetrable and obscure that I really don't know what to make of her; however, it would be a decent disguise for a werewolf, if one was to maintain it consistently, as one could simply attribute any discrepancies or oddities to one's posting style.

Shasta and McCaber are only suspicious because they haven't said much, and I'm inclined to think that at least one of the werewolves would be hiding in the shadows, rather than in the midst of the discussion with its fellows. It stands to reason that they wouldn't be found all in one place.

I don't know what to make of the others yet.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Both Thinlomien and Aganzir voted to execute Macalaure yesterDay, and now both of them are dead. I find this suspicious. Granted, I cast the first vote against Aganzir, but the decisive votes were Macalaure's and Rikae's. Maybe werewolf Macalaure (and possible compatriot Rikae?) found it in their best interests to eliminate his chief accusers?

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Actually, I've been wondering how this "meme" of "a wolf among the Aganzir voters" got started, so I think I'll look a little closer at its development.

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Originally Posted by Gwath

Since Aganzir was innocent, and the wolves knew she was innocent, it seems likely that one or more of them would have voted to execute her. So, if I'm right, either myself, Rikae, or Macalaure could be a wolf.

I didn't respond to this at the time, because I thought it was an obvious newbie-blunder and didnt need a response. I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right? Not to mention the absurdity of assuming that wolves would vote for someone "because they knew she was innocent", when they knew 10 people were innocent...
but it appears not, because:

Originally Posted by Legate

About those voters. I think it's probable that there could be a wolf among Aganzir-voters.

No reason given - I suppose you agree with Gwath's reasoning, then, Legate? Or does it just suit your purposes to ensure that the voting is focused on innocents again toDay?
Then Sally decided to one-up Legate and Gwath with:

Originally Posted by Sally

Honestly, I don't think there's a wolf in that group. I think there's two.

Her explanation being:

Originally Posted by Sally

a wolf (or wolves for that matter) jumped on the chance to get Agan out of the way.

Now, why exactly the wolves would want to get Agan out of the way, she doesn't say. Why exactly she thinks it's wolfish that I chose to vote for someone I found suspicious, rather than unsuspicious, I don't know -- nor why it's wolfish for Mac to save himself. I'm not saying Sally is a wolf -- I think she probably isn't -- but this is really not good reasoning.
Still, Gwath has said it and Legate gone along with it --- so why shouldn't Sally follow suit?

When corrected by Mac about his "5 minutes" statement (a twisting of the facts that has gone ignored), Legate replies:

Originally Posted by Legate

Yes, you are right. However, I am aware of the fact that it might have suited a wolf to raise such a last minute bandwaggon - and imagine what would've happened if for example Aganzir were a Seer.

Yeah, sure, but was there, as I said before, any more reason to think Agan was the seer than that Sally, Shasta, Menel or Gwath was? Not that I can see. This is not an argument at all, but amid all the mist that seems to be floating around toDay, it passes for one.

Greenie then joins the crowd -- clearly the "troublesome Aganzir voting issue" needs no further clarification, as it's obvious at this point that a wolf will be found among the Aganzir-voters. Greenie then goes on to raise very insubstantive points against all three... actually, if there were ever a case of a wolf riding the waves in the most deliberately uncontroversial way possible, Greenie's post is a perfect example.

Anyway, from that point forward, almost no one has looked at anyone but Mac. Nogrod seems to think he's a wolf primarily for "downplaying anything we could learn from Lommy's death", but really, Noggie, do you think a wolf-Mac would be so foolish as to kill both people who suspect him? I'm not saying he mightn't do it for other reasons, but he certainly wouldn't do it to eliminate them, and therefore isn't any more likely to be a wolf on that basis than not. I also can't see him saying, under any circumstances, "The wolves tried to frame me!" I wouldn't, anyway, regardless of my role -- it's a silly and defensive thing to say. Open your eyes, Nogrod.

Well, I've written another novel, I fear... but I'm becoming very frustrated with this village. Everyone seems to be piling nonsense on top of nonsense and I'm fairly sure the real wolves are slipping through our fingers (while adding just the right twisted words, here and there, to keep the nonsense going.)

I think we have too many people allowing their suspicions to be influenced by others' opinions rather than by actually reading the posts. For me, the most evil looking players here are those who repeat others' words, or give flimsy reasons to suspect those already suspected - those are wolvish behaviors, and the parties most guilty of this are Greenie and Legate.

EDIT: X'd with McCaber and Gwath

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think you already said that, actually, Gwath, but I can see why you find it worth repeating, since everyone seems to agree with you.

Nope, first time I've mentioned it. It only just occurred to me.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, what I meant is it hadn't occurred to me before that the two who voted to execute Macalaure are now dead.

EDIT: Xed with Rikae just now

[Rikae]

Sorry to double post, but something just occurred to me:

Originally Posted by Me

Gwath started it (in fact, he really started it yesterDay, as he knew Mac and I would both prefer voting for Aganzir to any of the other options):

Why did Gwath choose Agan, after all? He could have voted for anyone -- he hadn't listed any previous suspicions, after all, so he had a "clean slate". However, regardless for which of the people already on the list he voted, he could be pretty sure Mac would follow his vote to save himself. Now, if Gwath knew they were all innocent, he wouldn't want to put himself in a position of being responsible for an innocent's death, would he?

But by choosing someone who didn't have a vote yet, he basically absolved himself of responsibility for anyone's death. It wouldn't be possible for Mac to save himself that way until I followed Gwath's vote, and thus the choice became mine and Mac's rather than Gwath's. He seems to have been well aware of that, too, because he made sure to mention it right off the bat toDay.

I'm beginning to reconsider my suspicions...

EDIT: X'd with Gwath - I suppose that's partly true, since before you only claimed we wanted to eliminate Aganzir because she was innocent, rather than because she suspected Mac - still, same old tune: "Mac and/or Rikae is a wolf". Besides, Nogrod, I believe, already brought up the point of Aganzir and Lommy both suspecting Mac.

[Meneltarmacil]

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

Menel, yes, we know - but could you explain one thing? Why would Mac and I have voted as we did yesterday if we were wolves together?
Why, in fact, wouldn't I have voted for you? Mac would have followed, and you'd be off my back.

[Meneltarmacil]

You voted to save your fellow wolves; Macalurefollowed suit. You couldn't vote for me because killing someone who suspected you would make you look like you had something to hide, so you'd been hoping people would have thought it was "Menel being Menel," which is why you'd been calling me a misguided innocent for most of the Day, and since Gwath had voted for someone you'd frequently mentioned as suspicious, voting for Aganzir would have looked legitimate for both of you.

As to why you didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

[Rikae]

So, Menel, it makes sense for Mac to lynch someone who suspects him, but not for me to do so?
I could have easily come up with reasons to suspect you if I had wanted to, trust me. It's coming up with reasons not to that's difficult, but my gut feeling tells me you're innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Why does Menel seem to like this strange pairing of Mac, Rikae, and I? It truly makes no sense. Yes, I did say that it was possible, even probable that they were werewolves together. Why is that conceivable? Because no one would guess that they would do something so obvious as to vote together and watch each other's backs, etc.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

As to why you didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

....Or because, as I've stated before, I'm too juicy to get rid of. If Rikae and Mac are two of the wolves, there's basically no chance I'm the third. It doesn't fit together at all, if you think about it more. They can't let one of the other top suspects die; it would be foolish.



Quite a post from Rikae back there. I do believe she's flustered, which you already knew, but I'd like to know why. Everyone seems to be catching their share of suspicions today, so why should you (or I for that matter) be any different?

Sorry, need to go through the posts again. I just keep scrolling down and responding to what catches my eye. Lots of good points made since I went to work, and I'll need a bit to sift through them all. Back in a bit. I need to prepare some tax stuff and maybe get a bit of Theraflu before my throat decides to wreak havoc on the whole campus.

[Nerwen]

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

And also

Originally Posted by Rikae

I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right?

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

Edit: X'd with Menel, Rikae and Menel again.

[Rikae]

Menel, you've suspected me from your very first post, and there has never been a bit of reason in it. I've ignored it until now, but it's getting on my nerves, so let's see – of what does this “wolvishness” of mine consist?

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae would seem to be the one most guilty of this "nonsense posting". She makes a post full of jokes, then asks that others contribute to the discussion which she hasn't contributed much to herself.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Rikae.

Yeah, that's right, you cross-posted with me contributing. However, this doesn't change the fact that you find me guilty because (gasp) I didn't post something substantive in the second post of day one.


Now, what could I have posted that would have had substance? Theory, perhaps? No, Menel dislikes theory, apparently:

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae continues to worry me, though. She apparently thinks a "conventional vs. weird" debate has merit, and also advocates using gut feelings. Not that there's anything wrong with using instinct, but "I have a gut feeling about him" would be a good way for a wolf to sway the voting without having to make up a reason.

Yep, theory is out. He also seems to think I advocated using “I have a gut feeling” as a reason, when I had specifically said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm not saying we should refrain from giving reasons for our suspicions

Then he goes on to claim:

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and so as to not wander too far from today's business, if Mac was trying to catch a wolf in his net, Rikae appears to have taken the bait.

This is obviously a complete misunderstanding of what Mac said, as Mac explained, but Menel still holds to it as valid, I suppose. Apparently, his reasoning is that because I thought it was reasonable to say conventional, uncontroversial behavior is suspicious, I must be a wolf. Now, if that isn't ridiculous... it *is* reasonable. Uncontroversial behavior *is* suspicious, always has been, always will be, and if this makes me a wolf, it's because I was being uncontroversial by agreeing with it! Of course, I don't think anyone can call me uncontroversial in general...

ToDay, he comes up with:

Originally Posted by Menel

Then, seeing a vote in play, Rikae jumps in to save Macalaure, followed by the would-be lynchee himself.

Apparently this is why he finds me even more suspicious toDay. Well, I made it clear that I wanted to make sure I could save Macalaure with my vote at the time. Honestly, no other action would have made sense at the time (I can say this until I'm blue in the face and no one will hear me, will they?) I suspected Agan, not Menel, Shasta, Sally or Gwath, and thought Macalaure was the most innocentish of all. I did *not* “jump in” to save Macalaure, though, as I waited for a chance to do so by voting for an actual suspect.

Originally Posted by Menel

I have noticed, disturbingly, that Rikae and Macalaure have been defending and supporting each other during the entire game and coming up with the exact same suspects, Aganzir and Nerwen.

Well, I've been defending him since I made up my mind he was innocent. I never hid this, and I've explained my thinking already...

EDIT: Crossed with Menel and Nerwen; fixed spacing.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

I didn't say being an Aganzir voter made one innocent. I didn't even say it was pointless to examine us. What I disagree with is the fact that onlyAganzir voters are being examined, and everyone seems to have made up their minds (against all reason I can see), that there must be a wolf among them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

Remember, wolves don't really care who gets lynched, as long as it isn't one of their own (and even then, they're liable to turn on the one who's going down.) They don't need to jump into the middle of close races... they can sit back and watch the innocents lynch each other, which is statistically more probable than lynching a wolf.

[McCaber]

But of course, sister Rikae. First, on Nerwen. Her posts such as

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mean, if your idea was to encourage the wolves to act silly, and to go after anyone who was being helpful (thus revealing themselves), how did you plan to accuse them– when you'd previously said what they were doing was the hallmark of innocence?

and

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally's vote for Shasta was perhaps the single most wolfish thing anyone has done today. Or rather, not the vote itself, since Shasta was already under a bit of suspicion, but the reasons she gave for it.

strike me as a wolf trying to cast suspicion on innocents. She seems waiting for a mistake to pounce on it to try to make an issue of it.

Nogrod and Menel have raised the possibility of a Mac/Rikae wolf team. I do not say that this is impossible, but I think that it is unlikely. Rikae strikes me as slightly more innocent, because such as

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let us go for one who flies under the radar, one who doesn't say anything controversial, one who seems eager to not rub people the wrong way.

seems too perfect a wolf scheme to pass up. I do realize that this point has been argued about, but it and everything which comes after does not change my suspicions much. Perhaps the interplay between Nerwen and Mac is merely wolves trying to throw the village off. It seems much too serious for that, but perhaps ...

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by McCaber

And about this Lily Green. I do not know why she found Gwathagor suspicious on the last Day, and she explained it not. Admittedly, she changed her focus, but it would still be the best to know why she suspected him and not others. That is not the main reason I look at her, but a factor nonetheless. I just find some quality missing in her posts toDay that was there on the last. It seems as if she realized something was not working in her schemes and suddenly switched tactics.

It's possible that A Little Green voted for me because earlier I had voiced suspicions about her. Also, I have been a little erratic thus far; the newbie mask would fit a wolf very well.