Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Meneltarmacil]

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

The situation I'm seeing here is this:

We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.

Rikae was suspicious enough yesterDay, and my suspicion level has jumped quite a bit toDay. She and Macalaure constantly defend one anoother, and as Nogrod and I have observed, they've both been doing a good job of overlooking each other's wolfish aspects.

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

Menel, yes, we know - but could you explain one thing? Why would Mac and I have voted as we did yesterday if we were wolves together?
Why, in fact, wouldn't I have voted for you? Mac would have followed, and you'd be off my back.

[Meneltarmacil]

You voted to save your fellow wolves; Macalurefollowed suit. You couldn't vote for me because killing someone who suspected you would make you look like you had something to hide, so you'd been hoping people would have thought it was "Menel being Menel," which is why you'd been calling me a misguided innocent for most of the Day, and since Gwath had voted for someone you'd frequently mentioned as suspicious, voting for Aganzir would have looked legitimate for both of you.

As to why you didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

[Rikae]

So, Menel, it makes sense for Mac to lynch someone who suspects him, but not for me to do so?
I could have easily come up with reasons to suspect you if I had wanted to, trust me. It's coming up with reasons not to that's difficult, but my gut feeling tells me you're innocent.

[Meneltarmacil]

No, it would certainly make sense for both you and Mac to lynch somebody that you'd been frequently mentioning as being suspicious. Aganzir featured regularly in both of your suspect lists, while you kept saying that I was innocent. Suddenly reversing direction on me would look really suspicious, like you were going after me solely because I suspected you, and flip-flopping like that is hardly considered a good sign. Voting for Aganzir, whom both of you had been building a case against, looks a lot better.

Edit: Cross-posted with Rikae.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

No, it would certainly make sense for both you and Mac to lynch somebody that you'd been frequently mentioning as being suspicious.

Maybe because we found her suspicious?

Originally Posted by Menel

Aganzir featured regularly in both of your suspect lists, while you kept saying that I was innocent.

That certainly wasn't something I had to do, as you were saying weird things from your very first post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Personally, at the moment I'm seeing Rikae's irritation with the village as a whole to be quite innocent. However, I'm not quite sure what to make of her absolute assurance that she can spot a lycan Macalaure. The killing of Lommy left a solid trail right back to Mac, this is true. In my opinion, though, Mac's experienced enough and daring enough to attempt such a bold double-bluff.

Sally and Lily seem to be at each other's throats - in a civilized manner. Or rather, Lily is defending herself against Sally; I wonder how much of what Sally says we can actually trust? She said yesterday that her vote on me was random, yet today she says she purposely did it because it was a "safe vote", that she was sure I wouldn't get lynched. Most of that can probably be put down towards her sickness... but one does wonder, doesn't one?

I do have to say, Nogrod could be considered to be "flying under the radar" in terms of post content, if not numbers. In all the controversy I've observed today (Rikae-Mac-Nerwen, Sally-Lily, Rikae-Menel) I don't recall him being in the middle of anything, but rather on the edges.

I'll come up with more in a bit; I'm pretty sick right now, so I'm lying here in bed with nothing to do but read the thread. Sorry for being gone so long; I've been at rehearsal since 4:00 PM, and it's now nearly 10:00 PM.

Edit: X'd with Menel, Rikae, Gwath x2, Sally, Rikae, and Menel again.

[satansaloser2005]

Why does Menel seem to like this strange pairing of Mac, Rikae, and I? It truly makes no sense. Yes, I did say that it was possible, even probable that they were werewolves together. Why is that conceivable? Because no one would guess that they would do something so obvious as to vote together and watch each other's backs, etc.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

As to why you didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

....Or because, as I've stated before, I'm too juicy to get rid of. If Rikae and Mac are two of the wolves, there's basically no chance I'm the third. It doesn't fit together at all, if you think about it more. They can't let one of the other top suspects die; it would be foolish.



Quite a post from Rikae back there. I do believe she's flustered, which you already knew, but I'd like to know why. Everyone seems to be catching their share of suspicions today, so why should you (or I for that matter) be any different?

Sorry, need to go through the posts again. I just keep scrolling down and responding to what catches my eye. Lots of good points made since I went to work, and I'll need a bit to sift through them all. Back in a bit. I need to prepare some tax stuff and maybe get a bit of Theraflu before my throat decides to wreak havoc on the whole campus.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Quite a post from Rikae back there. I do believe she's flustered, which you already knew, but I'd like to know why. Everyone seems to be catching their share of suspicions today, so why should you (or I for that matter) be any different?

I'm not different, but Mac is, maybe. Sorry about it, but it really gets me riled to see him being framed like this (that's how I see it), when he really made more effort to help than anyone. Maybe I am a bit touchy, where he's concerned. I can't help it...

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

[Nerwen]

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

And also

Originally Posted by Rikae

I mean, any experienced player would recognize the likelihood of innocents lynching innocents, especially on day one, right?

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

Edit: X'd with Menel, Rikae and Menel again.

[Rikae]

Menel, you've suspected me from your very first post, and there has never been a bit of reason in it. I've ignored it until now, but it's getting on my nerves, so let's see – of what does this “wolvishness” of mine consist?

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae would seem to be the one most guilty of this "nonsense posting". She makes a post full of jokes, then asks that others contribute to the discussion which she hasn't contributed much to herself.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Rikae.

Yeah, that's right, you cross-posted with me contributing. However, this doesn't change the fact that you find me guilty because (gasp) I didn't post something substantive in the second post of day one.


Now, what could I have posted that would have had substance? Theory, perhaps? No, Menel dislikes theory, apparently:

Originally Posted by Menel

Rikae continues to worry me, though. She apparently thinks a "conventional vs. weird" debate has merit, and also advocates using gut feelings. Not that there's anything wrong with using instinct, but "I have a gut feeling about him" would be a good way for a wolf to sway the voting without having to make up a reason.

Yep, theory is out. He also seems to think I advocated using “I have a gut feeling” as a reason, when I had specifically said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm not saying we should refrain from giving reasons for our suspicions

Then he goes on to claim:

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and so as to not wander too far from today's business, if Mac was trying to catch a wolf in his net, Rikae appears to have taken the bait.

This is obviously a complete misunderstanding of what Mac said, as Mac explained, but Menel still holds to it as valid, I suppose. Apparently, his reasoning is that because I thought it was reasonable to say conventional, uncontroversial behavior is suspicious, I must be a wolf. Now, if that isn't ridiculous... it *is* reasonable. Uncontroversial behavior *is* suspicious, always has been, always will be, and if this makes me a wolf, it's because I was being uncontroversial by agreeing with it! Of course, I don't think anyone can call me uncontroversial in general...

ToDay, he comes up with:

Originally Posted by Menel

Then, seeing a vote in play, Rikae jumps in to save Macalaure, followed by the would-be lynchee himself.

Apparently this is why he finds me even more suspicious toDay. Well, I made it clear that I wanted to make sure I could save Macalaure with my vote at the time. Honestly, no other action would have made sense at the time (I can say this until I'm blue in the face and no one will hear me, will they?) I suspected Agan, not Menel, Shasta, Sally or Gwath, and thought Macalaure was the most innocentish of all. I did *not* “jump in” to save Macalaure, though, as I waited for a chance to do so by voting for an actual suspect.

Originally Posted by Menel

I have noticed, disturbingly, that Rikae and Macalaure have been defending and supporting each other during the entire game and coming up with the exact same suspects, Aganzir and Nerwen.

Well, I've been defending him since I made up my mind he was innocent. I never hid this, and I've explained my thinking already...

EDIT: Crossed with Menel and Nerwen; fixed spacing.

[Gwathagor]

Rikae seems to be in a bit of a panic; at any rate, she's posted a lot in the last hour or so. Is this because she is innocent? Or is it because I struck a nerve in post #181?

Regarding Rikae's post #186: that is a very good plan that I thought of. Diabolical, in fact.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Rikae seems to be in a bit of a panic; at any rate, she's posted a lot in the last hour or so. Is this because she is innocent? Or is it because I struck a nerve in post #181?

You absolutely did - my last nerve. There's only so much balderdash and group-think I can tolerate before I get annoyed.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You absolutely did - my last nerve. There's only so much balderdash and group-think I can tolerate before I get annoyed.

The feel of the noose settling about one's neck would be enough to make anyone panic, whether wolf or human, but maybe your distress was a bit premature for an innocent human? It's hard to say, and I'm not certain either way. Let the wise confer.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

I didn't say being an Aganzir voter made one innocent. I didn't even say it was pointless to examine us. What I disagree with is the fact that onlyAganzir voters are being examined, and everyone seems to have made up their minds (against all reason I can see), that there must be a wolf among them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

Remember, wolves don't really care who gets lynched, as long as it isn't one of their own (and even then, they're liable to turn on the one who's going down.) They don't need to jump into the middle of close races... they can sit back and watch the innocents lynch each other, which is statistically more probable than lynching a wolf.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

This is a good argument.

[Macalaure]

Very good analysis of Nerwen by Nogrod. I'm less convinced of her guilt today, actually, and more confused by her.

The way Rikae has been defending me further convinces me of her innocence. She wouldn't do it like that if she was a wolf. Even if we both were wolves (which some suspect) she wouldn't do it that way. There's been a lot of misunderstandings and misrepresentations in what has been said about her and my positions, and while I've grown tired of defending myself against them, I can certainly understand why it's so unsettling for Rikae.

It's worrisome that some people exclusively focus on Rikae and me. Doing it is not necessarily suspicious, but in any case it is not sensible. One of these cases would be Menel. I think his tone is very innocent-sounding, but his one-sided approach toDay isn't going to actually help us. More diversity and objectivity, please.

Now that McCaber has spoken more, I can say I'm not worried by him. Gwathagor is somehow confusing to me, but I don't think he's too suspicious.

Something strikes me wrong about Legate. I cannot put my finger on it yet. I think that Rikae raised some good points on him in #184 which might get overlooked because of her defensiveness.

(ps: I only read til the end of page 5 yet)