Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Rikae, at #184 you're saying that it's pointless to examine the Aganzir votes .

In your next post (#186) you start examining Gwath's vote for Aganzir– saying you're starting to "reconsider your suspicions".

Explain, please.

I didn't say being an Aganzir voter made one innocent. I didn't even say it was pointless to examine us. What I disagree with is the fact that onlyAganzir voters are being examined, and everyone seems to have made up their minds (against all reason I can see), that there must be a wolf among them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed– and also the likelihood of wolves lynching innocents. Are you seriously surprised that people are looking into it? Really?

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

Remember, wolves don't really care who gets lynched, as long as it isn't one of their own (and even then, they're liable to turn on the one who's going down.) They don't need to jump into the middle of close races... they can sit back and watch the innocents lynch each other, which is statistically more probable than lynching a wolf.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am definitely suprised that people seem to be dead certain there is a wolf among the three of us. If you honestly think that an innocent being lynched on day one means wolves must have voted for her, you haven't played much Werewolf. It would have been the easiest thing in the world for the wolves to avoid that spotlight- - it only took three votes. To put that in perspective, three people didn't vote at all (and you were one of them, no?) I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf or two among the non-voters (Nerwen, Menel & McCaber) and one or two among the safe-voters. That is, after all, where wolves generally prefer to be.

This is a good argument.

[Macalaure]

Very good analysis of Nerwen by Nogrod. I'm less convinced of her guilt today, actually, and more confused by her.

The way Rikae has been defending me further convinces me of her innocence. She wouldn't do it like that if she was a wolf. Even if we both were wolves (which some suspect) she wouldn't do it that way. There's been a lot of misunderstandings and misrepresentations in what has been said about her and my positions, and while I've grown tired of defending myself against them, I can certainly understand why it's so unsettling for Rikae.

It's worrisome that some people exclusively focus on Rikae and me. Doing it is not necessarily suspicious, but in any case it is not sensible. One of these cases would be Menel. I think his tone is very innocent-sounding, but his one-sided approach toDay isn't going to actually help us. More diversity and objectivity, please.

Now that McCaber has spoken more, I can say I'm not worried by him. Gwathagor is somehow confusing to me, but I don't think he's too suspicious.

Something strikes me wrong about Legate. I cannot put my finger on it yet. I think that Rikae raised some good points on him in #184 which might get overlooked because of her defensiveness.

(ps: I only read til the end of page 5 yet)