Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Macalaure]

Ah! The ranger really did gamble! Now we're pretty much as smart as yesterday... but at least the cobbler is gone.

Originally Posted by Boro

Who do you think I am Mac?

That "some kind of crazy man" you mentioned up there... that comes kinda close.
Well, I admit you look better now. This was surely an interesting trap, even though it didn't seem to have worked out entirely. Yesterday, I thought you were trying to get someone lynched who was widely regarded as innocent - with so many known innocents around (4 if Nilp had been saved), the wolf would be looking to get people lynched who were unlikely to get lynched otherwise and wo he therefore usually would kill. I could see an ingenious scheme with your position today as plan B, but for now I will stick to less far-fetched scenarios.

Originally Posted by Boro

Call it luck, but I don't think anyone's record is that spotless unless they know too much information.

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly. I wouldn't want to lynch somebody who has been that wrong unless there is harder evidence.


I think I need a fresh impression of the past votings.

[Boromir88]

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly. I wouldn't want to lynch somebody who has been that wrong unless there is harder evidence.~Mac

I battled with Lalwende for 3+ days, no reason I can't suit up for another long battle with McCaber. For Gondor! Oops bad timing, we're already past IC stuff.

But Boro, your points break down when you consider that every single post of mine on Days 2 & 3 was focused on bringing sally down.~McCaber

I've spent the entire day(s) building arguments against wolf-partners, Nogrod's done it too, don't try to make us think you're incapable of doing so. Ask Mithalwen, I doubt she wants to be my wolf-buddy ever again, I was out for her death...oh and Nerwen too, but that was more of an forced sacrificial situation.

[Boromir88]

If no one minds that I interject here again...

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly.~Mac

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it. McCaber's had a squeaky clean voting record and has been right about everyone he's mentioned (until I pointed this out yesterday when I became the cobbler).

Would a careless wolf do that? I don't know would you consider me a careless wolf? Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf. You have to constantly watch what you say and remind yourself "I don't know for certain." Also, it's a rather uncareless strategy in the regards of how long would it have gone unnoticed? I had no desire to look into McCaber deeper until he tried to convince us he could be written off as a proven innocent. How many of the 5 suspicious people that McCaber said should we have no difficulty in lynching/exonerating would have of turned up innocent before somebody did notice McCaber's tidy record? How careless is it, when it's hard as hell to convince you this is not "weak" and "careless?"

[Boromir88]

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

[Macalaure]

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Boro
Ordo -> me
Ordo -> Rikae
WolfofDespair -> Day1
McCaber -> WolfofDespair (he calls it semi-random, which in the light of CoD's vote just preceding his makes sense)
Cobbler -> Brinn
Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)
Izzy -> WolfofDespair (Boro and CoD 2, unless Izzywolf really did try to do some backstabbing, this looks very innocent)
Ordo -> Brinn
me -> WolfofDespair (again, unless some backstabbing was planned, innocent-looking. I would say, though, that this vote is more likely to be a backstab than Izzy's, because it has more determination behind it, so to speak)
KI -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Boro (I agree, this would have had to be a pretty insane move if Boro is a wolf)
Mith -> WolfofDespair (it would have been easy to avoid this vote, unless Mithwolf thought CoD would go down eventually anyway, and looking good at his expense worth it - seeing Sally's vote, however, this then must've been a plan of Mith alone, and no agreed strategy)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (it's still a throwaway)

The CoD-voters still look innocent, barring a wolf-on-wolf, or even a backstab. Fea's and Boro's vote look a lot less innocent. Sally's vote makes Boro look good.

Mith -> Gwath (bad reasoning to go along with it)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (his reasons at the time were thin, but now that we know her role, it's hard to argue against it)
Fea -> Boro (what to do with this one?)
Izzy -> Nogrod (and with this?)
Ordo -> Nogrod
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (calculated wolf-on-wolf risk in a wide field of votes?)
Ordo -> McCaber
Seer -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Lalcobblë -> McCaber (she obviously thought him innocent and tried to get rid of him... doesn't mean he is innocent, of course)
Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Gwath (in hindsight, choosing ordo over ordo, but as a wolf, I could also have stayed out of it all and see Nogrod die or voted Nogrod to save Sally. Of course, I suspected Sally before and one might wonder why I picked Gwath over her)
Nerwen -> Boro (throwaway)
KI -> Gwath

All early votes carry some amount of suspiciousness, especially Fea and Izzy's. Nerwen's looks bad. My choosing Gwath over Sally does have some smell. McCaber's could be wolvish, but out of all these, it's on the more innocent side.

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Nogrod
Boro -> Lalcobblë (Groundhog day...)
Fea -> Mith (?)
Lalcobblë -> Mith (cobblerish bandwaggoning. Mith did look innocent, but maybe this was enhanced by Lal thinking Fea might be a wolf)
Izzy -> Nogrod (not look good this one does)
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (can McCaber really be so eager to be the last remaining one?)
Mith -> Lalcobblë (little surprise)
Nerwen -> Boro (another throwaway for the same person)
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Seer -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Wolfisaloser (sure, I voted a wolf, but only when it was clear where the train went (I did cross with Nogrod, though))

Izzy's and Nerwen's look bad. Fea's a little. Boro and Mith are middle-of-the-road-ish, McCaber's and mine are more innocent-ish, his more so.

Seer -> Lalcobblë
Lalcobblë -> Boro (she apparently thought that no wolf would go after a cobbler like that. Some do, though)
Boro -> McCaber (trap or no trap?)
KI -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fea (her reason seems logical, all other options had a catch... except Boro - voting for him might or might not have been smart, but a throwaway?)
Fea -> Lalcobblë (she could have thought she was not the cobbler, or decided to make herself look better by giving a deciding vote for the cobbler)
McCaber -> Boro (retaliation, understandable? maybe. helpful? certainly no.)
Nerwen -> Lalcobblë (same as Fea, the alternative would have been Boro, which could have made a Nerewolf look bad later)
Mith -> McCaber (don't like this one, for the reason I stated against Boro in my last post)
me -> Lalcobblë (logical choice at this late point)
KI -> Lalcobblë

Hard to tell which votes were suspicious without a known wolf around. Mith's stands out a little and I hesitated too long.

Nerwen (1: n/a, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Izzy (1: innocent, 2: suspicious, 3: suspicious, 4: hard to tell)
Fea (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Boro (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: a little suspicious, 3: neither, 4: who knows)
Mith (1: pretty innocent, 2: somewhat suspicious, 3: neither, 4: a bit suspicious)
me (1: quite innocent, 2: a little suspicious, 3: innocent-ish, 4: a bit suspicious)
McCaber (1: rather innocent, 2: more innocent, 3: innocent, 4: deeply unhelpful)

Nerwen's problem is that, unlike the rest, she does not have one piece of innocent-looking evidence for her. If she's not the wolf, it means that the wolf obtained one such.
Izzy and Mith lynched one wolf, McCaber and I two. Not one of these votes have a clear wolf-on-wolf feeling to it. Boro was seriously threatened by a vote from a wolf. Fea made a bluff that I have a hard time imagining a (lone!) wolf would have done.

I'm not really convinced of Nerwen's guilt, but something tells me we should lynch her before we check out the people looking innocent at first glance.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

A dog has fallen down the stairs. Your dog is smart, therefore the chances that it was him are slim. (I never said it would never fall.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

I look at it and I see a clear record. As long as I see better options, I think it's madness to go for somebody with a clear record! Yes, I admit his vote for you doesn't look good, but if I was innocent, had a clear record, and then saw your case and vote, I would have been upset, too. Concerning him trying to convince us he's a nearly known innocent, I give you that one. But these are not enough to change my mind. Not yet.

Originally Posted by Boro

Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf.

Umm, yes, you can. At least you know you have to. Many, maybe most, wolves aren't able to do it consistently, but to consistently not do it, that's just not what an even moderately smart wolf - usually - would do.


As I said, I'm not writing him off, but right now I don't think that lynching him is a good idea.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mac on Day1 voting

Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)

You call this somewhat suspicious Mac? I'd call it somewhat unsuspicious... Why would a wolf make one of her mates to top her other mate? Wouldn't there be thousands of possibilities other than that - and more profitable to the wolves even if one weren't too much going to save the one in trouble (eg. CoD)?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

That isn't insane, mon ami, - merely inevitable should we all live long enough....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

Okay Boro, now you're making me feel good about you.

So the no-nonsense Boro is back and I'm tending to believe in his innocence for now - not so much because of that return even if it helps a bit - but mainly because of the vote by Sally on Day1 and the death of Lal the Cobbler...

And your case on McCaber is surely worth looking at. I'm not sure I'm as convinced of it as you seem to be but I'm thinking it quite plausible for now. But I need to be doing some revaluating before giving a stronger opinion on it.

I'm still somewhat worried about Nerwen and Fëa.

Fëa has played systematically in a way that is anything but transparent - I mean she has been methodically playful / odd which could be perfect disguise for a wolf (or then just an ordo having fun with it).

Nerwen is nice, very observant and careful while throwing votes away... Very much non-controversial in many ways. Just like a sneaky wolf would be. Gah, if we just knew her role it would be a lot easier as I do appreciate her help a lot when she's innocent.

OOC: Lommy & Greenie are down to my place for the weekend and we'll be doing stuff so I won't be around as much I'd normally be at this time of the Day but I'll try to come back before going to sleep to look backwards a few things.

[McCaber]

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer. The whole sacrifice thing, you know. Now that the Seer is out I don't have to be right so I can say what I feel instead of what I know for sure. That's why I harped on Boro so quickly.

So what you have to decide is being right enough evidence to kill me.

I think not.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer. The whole sacrifice thing, you know.

Uh-oh... Now this looks... well, very strange to say the least.

I think I need to adopt that tactics in the next one I'm an ordo: just be right about everyone so that the wolves kill me instead of killing the seer.

Now what makes me wonder is the motivation issue. Why would an innocent say something like this? Why would an innocent try that kind of posture?


Also I find this a bit disturbing:

Originally Posted by McCaber

Remember the last time two people went head to head in this game? Both were innocents harping on phrases that could be taken badly. I'm sure that if I really wanted to I could put together a convincing argument that Boro is indeed a wolf and should be killed. But I won't, because I think he's innocent.

Boro suspects McCaber and he answers that he could start suspecting Boro and then it would be an innocent against innocent situation (referring to Gwath and me earlier). Now what? There isn't a consistent row between you two and then you say you could turn it into one - which then "proves" you're an innocent because the row would tell us you both are innocents?

Although I still find it hard to believe the lone wolf situation this early was planned by the wolves. Is it possible they just messed it all up?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Um... you do realize there's only one wolf now, don't you? You've already been corrected by Mac once, yet you still reason:

What's the matter with you?

I don't see the problem... sorry.

That quote concerns the ending of Day3 when Wolfisaloser2008 was lynched - and she had a mate then - that mate is indeed among us still as otherwise we would have won this already.

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Finally, as for these 20-20 hindsight points you make about me having suspected innocents... um... so have you

I do agree with you that suspecting or even voting innocents is no "proof" of anyone's lupinity. Of course not, as we all do it all the time. But if McCaber has been unbeliavably right all the time you have been very-very-wrong all the time managing to basically suspect or turn the discussion to ordos all the time without getting it right at all. Now I don't say it's impossible one gets things totally wrong - it's happened to me as well and I think to everyone - but it's not usual after four Days... So I thought it was worth noticing among other possible reasons to suspect you.

Talking about luxuries:

Nogrod, I find your lack of faith disturbing....

Sadly a werewolf-game isn't the place where you'd be happy to make a leap of faith as your first act.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.

Oh... okay, I completely misinterpreted what you meant there, then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with you that suspecting or even voting innocents is no "proof" of anyone's lupinity. Of course not, as we all do it all the time. But if McCaber has been unbeliavably right all the time you have been very-very-wrong all the time managing to basically suspect or turn the discussion to ordos all the time without getting it right at all. Now I don't say it's impossible one gets things totally wrong - it's happened to me as well and I think to everyone - but it's not usual after four Days... So I thought it was worth noticing among other possible reasons to suspect you.

*jaw drops*

Nogrod– which of us tried to turn the vote away from a wolf on Day One? Which of us led a successful campaign to lynch an innocent on Day Two?

Like I said, why do you think you got dreamed?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking about luxuries: Sadly a werewolf-game isn't the place where you'd be happy to make a leap of faith as your first act.

Ah, but it is the place for IC posting...

[Boromir88]

Absolutely ruthless .... which is why I can't absolutely trust him now. Though I would be very suprised if he were the wolf now.~Mith

I am quite ruthless towards pack mates, and with some of the stuff you've seen me pull, it's quite understandable why you're a little leery. But, it's really when I go completely unsuspected for 3-4 days when you have to worry about me. That means I'm making good sense (and attacking my wolf mates), but I'm being unconfrontational and not getting under people's skins.

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.~Nogrod

And Mac would say my evidence is weak. Granted that's not the entire schibang against Nerwen (I wouldn't even call it the potatoes), but it looks that's a bit of a stretch.

Although I still find it hard to believe the lone wolf situation this early was planned by the wolves. Is it possible they just messed it all up?~Nogrod

I don't know if it was planned in the sense "alright let's sacrifice CoD on Day 1 and sally on Day 3." But perhaps it was generally planned that McCaber would go after his wolf mates to make him look better, and hopefully there's a couple innocents lynched in between. Really who could have seen a last minute bandwagon against CoD, would end up lynching a wolf? I doubt CoD's two partners were. With all the attention Lal and I had been gathering, who could have seen sally's lynching on Day 3? Granted she had been growing in suspicion, but with how spread the votes were, how many options you had to go at the end, who saw sally's lynching until the end?

It would be a big risk, but that doesn't make it careless or stupid. That makes it risky, and dangerous, but high risk can bring high reward. Everyone thought I had just insured village victory by saying I was the ranger, when no one was suspecting me, and I the last wolf to fend for herself. I crunched the numbers, and it was a calculated risk, it paid off. It could have easily blown up in my face and the village would have been right in thinking what the heck was I doing? But it ended blowing up in your face didn't it?

Anyway, just because a wolf gets caught taking a risk, doesn't make him/her careless. It was a bold play and the wolf got caught. I bet you if McCaber, went to the end, as the last wolf you wouldn't all be calling it a careless play, you would be babbling on about how bold and clever it was. But, I think he's been caught, and since he was caught that obviously makes him a careless wolf then, right?

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.~McCaber

Voting a half an hour early doesn't mean it's still not a safe vote. Maybe you are innocent and were starting a bandwagon against someone you knew was a wolf. Or is it a safe vote, because you knew the possibility of sally getting lynched on Day 2 was next to nil, and Day 3 I'd give you...moderate, there was a moderate chance sally would be lynched on Day 3? Also, sally's role being revealed would hopefully propel you into the "undoubtedly known innocent" category.

McCaber, ok then, you got a good record, so let's hear some more thoughts on who you think is a wolf.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Like I said, why do you think you got dreamed?

Actually, didn't Nilp imply that his goal wasn't necessarily to find wolves but to stockpile innocents? I took that to mean that he'd been picking under the reindeer types who wouldn't do anything that would get them easily killed. Ie: Nogrod got dreamed because he wasn't being particularly threatening.

Though I might be totally off.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ask Mithalwen, I doubt she wants to be my wolf-buddy ever again, I was out for her death...oh and Nerwen too, but that was more of an forced sacrificial situation.

It was not the fun experience I expected certainly as things worked out - left on my own for a lot of the decision making at night and ripped apart during the day. I mean I had told them to do what they had to but I was still wincing most of that game despite or perhaps because Boro is one of my best Downs friends. Absolutely ruthless .... which is why I can't absolutely trust him now. Though I would be very suprised if he were the wolf now.

However I always err on the side of optimism and hope that a way round can be found which is why I have never voted wolf on wolf.

All I can say about the Gwath vote being dragged up again is that I really did have to go and without time for consideration his "you could be a wolf reply" just seemed so odd a response. I am an instinctive player - I latch on to odd stuff and sometimes I am right ( Lal, CoD) and sometimes I am wrong. Sorry. I thought it was better to vote than not :S