Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[A Little Green]

I just realised something.

The numbers look pretty good for us at the moment. 11 innocents, 3 wolves. BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves. With bad luck, we may, in other words, lose four innocents in one Day and one Night. Which is very, very bad.

I only hope Shasta and Nessa turn up, and if they don't I at least hope they are wolves. (Though that, too, would be kind of silly game-wise.)

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:
Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence.
Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far.
Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place.
Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow.

NO IDEA:
Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before.
McCaber - Too little to go on.
Nessa - Yeah.
Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know.
Shasta - Too little to go on.
wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache.

LEANING EVIL:
Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?)
Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much. Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful.
Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her.

Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm.

But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through.

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I had something smart to say but can't remember what it was. My brain is leaking.


EDIT: x-ed with my topic.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I have just been too agreeable this far...

Which is kind of interesting ww-psychology -thing as I think I have really betrayed you all with not doing enough work in this game, and the result is that no one suspects me a lot and I'm alive on Day4... Interesting indeed. I mean when I really try my best to help I get lynched or Night-killed pretty early and rarely even a Day passes without bandwagons to lynch me.

Let's see if I manage to change that toDay...

[Nogrod]

A few words on the subject of Day2's voting.

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Legate doesn't of course vote for himself and we know that Lommy was furious about us lynching Legate - well consistently and arguingly against our interpretation of his status anyway.

Now as Nilp voted much earlier than anyone else and McCaber at the end I'd say they both could have acted thus as wolves. Which is not to say they are my prime suspects or anything like that but just that there is nothing to wash them clean there.

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

But then again, unlike Nienna, I have found Nilp's posting the most insightful and wouldn't like to see him lynched at least at this point when I believe we have better candidates on offer.


Another thing that I thought looking back at the voting lists, and which has been speculated toDay, is the wolves' interest of voting their own to be guarded.

We have quite nothing concrete to share on the wolves' actions. Boro, me and Pitchwife know it for ourselves whether Inzil voted for his fellow to be guarded. Now looking at the thread in general, it looks the most like he followed the general trust of the villagers. So he tried to be as uncontroversial as possible? And at least in my case he was not voting for a mate to be guarded.

I do think it would not have been in their interests to get one of them guarded whilst there were four wolves left. With a villager guarded they had the initiative to choose what to do and the suspicion or insecurity following (which I see Wilwa restating once more) would be bad for them.

Now on whose decisions the guarded have been chosen (ie. whose votes decided) is another question to be sure.

But now as the double-kill option is over and done with the wolvish intentions might be different (with the double-kill option: guard vocal innocents and thus make them look suspicious to be lynched). Now they'd not like to see vocal players guarded as that would make them unkillable during the Nights.

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Hmm, that's actually brilliant. Like toDay if we were to guard Nessa and then she got modfired, really we're not actually guarding anyone, which the wolves would like. Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Have to say that out of Nilp and McCaber, McCaber for me is the one who looks the most suspicious, since his vote was at the end of the Day when it was obvious Legate would be lynched (almost like he knew Legate would be innocent and didn't want to be a part of it, for fear of that making him look bad). I think one of them could be a wolf (probably not both), cause for all of the wolves to vote Legate (even though that would hide them well) just seems unlikely.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

How about a no trace -kill? On top of that, no one really suspects Shasta so he doesn't have that big a chance of getting lynched - no, I can see why the wolves might have wanted to go for Shasta.

I think you have a point, though, about the Shasta-wagon coming out of the blue. Sally's guard vote, for example: where did that come from? I cheched those guard votes and it just struck me that Sally cast her guard vote at the last minute to create a three-way tie (Shasta, Pitchwife and Nerwen) in the guard votes. Could she have voted Shasta to try to avoid one of her fellows ending up being guarded? That presents us with a problem, though - why not vote the other one with three votes instead of bringing up a third candidate? It's possible, though, that Sally didn't know the votes (she even asked for a vote tally!) and thus voted one she had seen having some guard votes already. That would mean that if Sally is a werewolf, either Pitch or Nerwen could be one too.

Wait... Nerwen...

Looks far too easy. Aaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Greenie

BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves.

Well yes, Shasta could be modfired if he doesn't vote toDay, but Nessa still has both toDay and toMorrow to vote since she did on Day 2. I know, it's hard to remember since it was her only post. But yeah, all this potential modfire that could occur... *grumbles*

[Brinniel]

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

He didn’t have a lot of time to analyze so he went with his gut. Not the best because his gut was wrong but not unheard of for Day One.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Mentions how we are probably going to lynch Legate even though he is professing his innocence which can very well be a sign of guilt. It seems he is trying to dissuade people from listening to Legate. This was kind of a crucial time before Legate had too many votes so that is interesting. I don’t know… something about the wording and such in this post strikes me as odd. He seems like he is distancing himself from the village.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

Votes early even though he says he will be back by deadline. 3rd vote for Legate so at this time there could still be time for a different lynch candidate. Makes a random statement about Alona lurking that looks like a possible set up for if she did happen to come back… slightly unsettling.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Pretty self-explanatory…

Originally Posted by Hakon

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Logical.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Doesn’t want to lynch Zil. Thinks Pitchwife is suspicious for really faulty reasoning.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Still doesn’t want to lynch Zil but no longer finds Pitchwife suspicious… actually votes to protect him.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

[lynch vote]++Nienna[/lynch vote]

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Really really doesn’t want to vote Zil so votes for me instead… based on a gut feeling which has been proven a faulty way of reasoning already this game.

Originally Posted by Hakon

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

[Nerwen]

The Shasta Voters:

1.Nienna.
Day 1: Lynch Inzil, guard Mnemo (2).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (5), guard Nerwen (2).
Day 3: Lynch Inzil (3), guard Shasta (1).

2.Pitchwife
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (4), guard Boro (4).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (8), guard Nogrod (2).
Day 3: Lynch Boro, guard Shasta (2).

3.Sally
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (6), guard Mnemo.
Day 2: Lynch Legate (12), guard Nienna.
Day 3: Lynch Nobody, guard Shasta (3).

Following Sally's own system, innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined.

Points against them:

Well, all three were Legate voters–who wasn't? However, Pitchwife and Sally also cast very bandwagonning votes on Kit.

Pitchwife argued strongly against lynching Inzilawolf, and stressed the theory that he had been framed. I'm inclined to think Pitchy a misguided innocent, but you never know...

Sally has done little except post tallies, a favourite lupine trick for appearing to contribute more than you're doing.* She also brought Shasta to a tie.

There is nothing I can think of against Nienna, unless it's that she might indeed be a little too good to be true. *shrugs*

X'd since Brinniel at #497.
*Yes, I know I'm doing it now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

Out of curiosity, who do you find the "most suspicious"?

–Anyway, I'm going to try voting him.

Lynch:

++Hakon

I'm not at all sure about this, though– in fact I seem to be flip-flopping in a manner worthy of Lommy. At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

Guard:

++Nienna.

Despite being one of the Shasta Three, she seems okay, and has contributed a lot. (I'm not ruling out that she could be an extremely sneaky wolf, but at the moment she's low on my suspicion list.)

[Nerwen]

Good Night, and let's hope we lynch the right person!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

I'm afraid I failed miserably at making myself clear. No, I wasn't saying practically everyone who voted the wolf looks guilty. I was saying that at least one of them is probably a wolf and was pondering who is the most likely candidate (and didn't get too far, as you doubtlessly noticed). I agree with the point you bring in the end of the second paragraph.

Sally creeps me out. I'm flip-flopping about Nerwen because she feels innocent but my theories point against her. Hakon is another I'm considering as my lynch-target toDay. What about you others? I'd like to hear about who you think of voting. Just so as to avoid throwing away my precious vote.

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

[Nogrod]

Back again... and just on the top of affairs, kudos to you Nienna for reminding us about this (talking of Hakon voting to guard me by saying: "I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil..")

Originally Posted by Nienna

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Well I'm totally torn between the same options Nerwen so eloquently phrases:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

So a too easy wolf-catch or just something completely different?

I can't pin it down to a few clear arguments right now but I'm actually getting a bit afraid of Pitchie... Looking at Nerwen's last tally of "Shasta-guarders" didn't exactly lessen that feeling. And I haven't forgotten my suspicion on Sally either... even if I do appreciate the tallies!

These are not just gut feelings, but are based on some things I have read and thought a second time at some point in the game (sadly I haven't written them all up) - and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others; or you Greenie nicely staying on the background but basically doing the same thing; or Wilwa making such an effort to look the most reasonable person there is - like Nerwen does... And what/whonot...

I try to express at least some of my fears after I have watched the latest episode of 24 that is beginning in a moment (yes bad TV, repulsive even, but I 'm interested on how the new regime in the US. changes the series background-values - or does it).

[McCaber]

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

[Hakon]

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well since I may or may not be able to make it on later, I don't want to risk missing the chance to vote so I'm going to do it now

++ Guard Nienna

since she's making sense.

++McCaber

since I find him more suspicious then Hakon, who I'm starting to think may just be misguided.

Might still manage to show up later, but just incase I don't I wish you all good luck!

[Nogrod]

Even without Wilwa's vote... please McCaber, what are you doing?

Just explain a little... what do you think of people? A wolf would do well just mentioning one or two and backing away from every slight suspicion he made. Good Public Relations but not too good if trying to catch the wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Says the game may start out rough, but hopes we can limit kill numbers early on.

Then he says that if we protect someone and there's only one kill we shouldn't be overeager and lynch them right away (also known as the Silly Sally plan of now Fail). Says it's too easy for the pack to mess with our minds in this way (which did in fact happen) and that while it could work to our advantage it's a risk.

Nothing really to say here, but I wanted to point the second bit out because it comes into play later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

It's Day One. Most of the discussion is silly. Although I think he's referring to Mnemo's proposed plan, which is why he says 'adverse effect'.

Also, the 'they're' looks weird to me. Don't know why, besides the obvious, which is....well, too obvious. Blah. Probably just a silly Cabbie thing.


DAY TWO

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

So before he said that we shouldn't use the protections to determine our lynches, but now he thinks a Legate lynch is acceptable. This just seems too slick for me, especially with the 'but I'll see how the Day goes and then decide which side to take' at the end. I don't like it.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

So he just sums up what's going on and says he can't make up his mind. Erm, k.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

Finally seems to make up his mind, and it appears an attempt to cover his earlier statement. Seems to me that he's saying "go ahead and lynch Legate, but I can't be involved because otherwise I'll contradict myself and look bad".

Also, I noted this before, although only briefly. This would be a really good move for a packmate of Dun, and here's why. Legate's pretty much screwed, so voting Dun isn't a dangerous move. Also, if/when Dun was lynched and proven guilty, Cabbie could pull a "I told you so" and look more innocent for making a case for Dun before most other people. So basically this jumps him up on my wolf radar, a lot.

(By extreme extension this leads me to believe the Wilwa and Cabbie will not be in a pack together. He voted to kill her on Day One when it was still possible she'd be lynched, so while it's possible I don't think it's the case.)


DAY THREE

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Erm....okay, nice of you to confess there, friend. Mind telling us who your other two packmates are then? That'd be ever so helpful of you!

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I don't think there's much in this, other than more logicless logic and useless points. (E.g. his commentary on the plan, which has been extinct for like two Days now.) Mentions Nog, but I'm not getting a feeling about it one way or another so meh.


DAY FOUR

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This....makes no sense to me. They knew Alona was getting modfired so why kill her? There's no reason (especially now) for them to lose the kill just because of this. (I know this has been mentioned somewhere else so I'm going to read through this section of the thread again, but I make this statement from a strategy standpoint, not a 'somehow they weren't allowed a kill' standpoint.) If nothing else it looks plain weird.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

And again, he's making judgements and then saying "but I could be wrong, so I best not say anything". Could be an attempt to distance himself from a packmate Pitchie/Hakon while not appearing to support them completely, but I'm not sure.


Overall Cabbie seems very off to me, from his voting to just some of the statements he makes. I'm definitely seeing him as a top suspect.

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back.
Brinn, about my earlier defense - let me just say I was dismayed at my error (not the first in this game) and felt I owed the village some open words. True, there were no accusations at the time, but I could see them coming, and as I knew I would be away for quite a while (for RL reasons) I thought I'd say what I had to say while I had the time. But I won't belabour the point any more.

Hakon - well, I don't know. Wouldn't a wolf-cub have been briefed a little better by his packmates? My impression is more like he's on his own and out in deep water and desperately flailing around. But I'm not sure whether to trust that judgement at the moment.

McCaber, while you're around, I have some questions about this statement of yours from yesterDay:

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

1. Why bring up the matter again at all long after The Plan had been rendered void?
2. Don't you think it probable that if Kit had revealed on Day 1, she would have escaped lynching? If not, why? True, we couldn't have tested her veracity on the spot, but don't you think enough of us would have given her the benefit of doubt to ensure her survival that Day.
3. Between the NG and the Ranger, don't you think we could have kept her alive for, let's say, 2-3 Nights at least? If not, why? And even if she'd been killed eventually before she could dream a wolf, would we be any worse off than we are now?
I'm more interested in your reasoning than in the matter itself, which, as I said, has long been void. But that statement just confused me.

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article. Obviously you've realized that yourself, and as you seem to be coming back to true shape lately, I'm much more inclined to trust you (be afraid of me as much as you like - I don't expect otherwise, and I can take it).
There's still the matter of the one kill the Night you were Guarded, of course. I'm not inclined to make a judgement based on that alone, after the Legate desaster, but I still think wilwa's #441 yesterDay had a good point.

(x-ed with Sally #518 ff.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

This is pretty much the best thing ever, by the way.


Internet's flaring up again so I'll be back with my Hakon post when I can.

[Nienna]

Since I was mostly done when Sally posted hers... here is just a different perspective and now I shall go read hers.

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Warning us about how the wolves could manipulate the guarded with only sending in one Night kill. This looks as if it could be a wolf with insider knowledge.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

[lynch vote]++ wilwa[/lynch vote]

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

Seems reasonable.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

Says he’s willing to lynch Legate today and sort it out later but it will depend on the rest of the Day… even though the day before he warned us of this exact thing.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

The bolded part is notable… not sure why he didn’t want the Day to be interesting. He seems not sure whether or not to join against Legate.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

[lynch vote]++ Inziladun[/lynch vote]

This makes a little bit more sense considering how he did warn us of the possible wolf trap for lynching Legate… but earlier in the day it seemed like he was feeling out how everyone would react to Legate before voting him. I don’t know but it seems like he is trying to stay out of the wagon and then voting for wolf. Both of these things could be done by a wolf.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

It is actually highly possible that one of the non-Legate voters is a wolf because they would know Legate was innocent and want to be able to claim innocence later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I’m not really sure why he brought up The Plan again. This was Day Three and it hadn’t been talked about in a while… really random.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

Even after this analysis I’m still confused by McCaber. He bears close watching though.

[Pitchwife]

Nog, direct answer to your direct question:
1. The Plan
When I first heard our Mayor set forth the special rules about the NG, I more or less had the same idea Mnemo suggested. As we didn't know our roles at that time, I considered how I, in case I was made a wolf, would like to deal with something like The Plan, if it came up. I thought it would be quite plain to see that such a plan, if followed through, would be in the best interest of the village, and arguing against it would be a) difficult and b) likely to cause suspicion. So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it? (Not Mnemo herself, of course, but at least some of those who argued for her. And remember, I was among those, so I was actually inviting people to have a close look at me.)
2. The Legwagon / Zil voters
I was about to say the reasoning is all in the post you quoted from, but looking back now I realize there's actually an appalling fault in my reasoning there. Quoting myself:

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent?

The answer to the question is actually in the sentence before it. If Zil was a wolf (as we now know he was), and one of his packmates voted for him, then Lommy's death (=confirmed innocence) would make that packmate look better for voting with her. How I failed to realize that at the time, I can't tell. If I had, I wouldn't have been quite so confident in my Inzil frame theory.
But the short answer to your question is: yes, in both cases I said what I said because I really thought so myself at the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog's last.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, I do agree with your questions to McCaber, not the least as I still think some of us haven't made those deductions as yet...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

Heh, time-deprivation... Hope I can get you all to suspect me in the last one and half hours if that makes you feel more comfy...

Anyway, I'm not going to restrain from voicing doubts toDay.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, could you just tell us why did you think guarding Shasta would be a good idea yesterDay? I mean more than "just for a change"?

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Shasta will be modfired in the Night.