WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Macalaure]

Reading along toDay and writing down whatever comes to mind.

Why Eomer? Has anyone bothered to look up what he's been up to? Not sure whether I'll get to today. I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice. As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy. Lottie was probably protected last night, but who knows whether the ranger gambled. If they were not afraid of a ranger gamble, then the wolves probably thought that they could make the village paranoid enough to lynch Lottie. Nogrod comes to mind once again.

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

the deaths are 6:2 (of which two are resignments, so actually 4:2 gamingwise) but we're having still 10:2.

Werewolf - the only game where winning means not losing too badly.

A lot of chatter going back and forth. I can't read much into it.

Reading over my own analysis. If Nogrod is a wolf, there's been a strong shift in the wolves' behaviour between Day1 and 2. I remember Mnemo suspected Pitch a little, but the next Day Mnemo and Pitch vote each other and Nogrod is after both. I'm definitely getting paranoid, but it all fits together so nicely! It even makes me wonder whether Nogrod and Brinn's clashing was staged.

Originally Posted by Brinn

This game he's been playing pretty smoothly; while he receives some attention it's not too much.

Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ.

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.


Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament ).

You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

Apart from almost getting lynched on Day1 and being called jumpy? Jumpy/smooth... funny how people's perception differ.

Not happy with your suspicion in general, Brinn. Very vague. I hope you'll make it more solid today.

Well, I wouldn't say it's quite suspicion...more like concern. But yes, I know it's vague, which is why I won't make anything of it toDay since I don't have time to look any further into why I'm feeling worried about you.

Also, perhaps my perception is different because I admittingly skim through most of the thread, so I probably miss a lot that others pick up on..

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, I can see the point, too– however, Nogrod has been saying, "sadly, we may have to lynch her in a couple of Days" over and over, as though it's already agreed on.

If we agree on something like that, then of course the wolves won't kill her as they can safely assume we'll take care of her for them if she's still alive in a couple Days. So I agree it's rather ridiculous to say that.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal

My "ample reasoning" was more that I didn't like the way he claimed he's acting like an innocent Boro, and not at all how a Wolf Boro would act, I hate it when people do that. (and I believe you agreed that this was a bad thing). He just seemed to be putting a lot of effort into convincing us that he was acting like he normally would as an innocent, and yes, that made me uneasy. I don't really like being suspected for suspecting Boro, simply because no one else suspects him. And I defended my vote for him so vehemently because I'm tired of my first vote in the game always being seen as suspicious, like really, always.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details. If she's a wolf it'd be the perfect thing to false reveal as, and anyone who would counter reveal possibly would not be any more believable. It'd be a gamble, but it's not all that unlikely that she guilty. Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

I need to check something in the rules, and then I'll be right back...

x'ed with a whole lot of people

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.


At this moment I'm pretty sad that I don't really suspect anyone (but dear Boromir of course). And the fact that I'm probably getting lynched today is pretty discouraging, maybe why I'm having a hard time finding anything wrong with anyone. So my plan for the day: discuss any strategies/theories that people bring up, in order to remain useful despite my likely demise, and maybe find someone else to suspect, otherwise just voting for Boro just cause I can. Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

[satansaloser2005]

Why don't you analyze me, Wilwa? It'd take up lots of time and I think you'd enjoy it.


Also, I am in fact at work, hence my silence. Rubbish. I'm telling you, I'm going to have some time at some point to look stuff over and make proper commentary. For now though I'll just have to read through and multi-quote so I don't have to look over everything six times in order to make my comments.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen. Really, I'd much prefer it if that game never happened. Who's with me?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

What's all this talk about repping?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

Wilwa doesn't look very suspicious today anymore. This makes my life more complicated...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

Aha. Makes more sense. (I was thinking along the lines "as a wolf, the ranger would do this and that" and I was like what?! ) Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

I thought I read it all.


edit: xed with Shasta, Brinn, Wilwa and Boro

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

I disagree. If they have the time, I'd think wolves would want to analyse more. Because with an analysis, they can build a better case against an innocent to get them lynched. Well reasoned votes after an analysis don't get questioned as much as a votes made without providing analysis first.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...

Are you talking about The Republic? I put a lot of effort into that one because I had to survive as a lone wolf for five Days and went to extreme measures to do so. But I also remember a game of Nogrod's where I spent literally all night analysing and by the end of the game had 70-something pages of handwritten notes. And what role was I? An ordo. But at the same time, I know I've also been a lazy wolf. Basically what I'm saying is that if anyone tries to figure me out based on my effort, they won't get anywhere because it frequently changes and mostly has to do with RL. It's also why I try to avoid suspecting/disregarding people for this reason, because surely I'm not the only one who is like this.

I have to run to class and won't be back, so time to go:

++Lommy

If you want reasons, just look through my posts from the past two Days. Sorry, but I really have to go now so I just don't have time to further explain here.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Everyone was quick to believe her? Huh? There were extensive efforts to try and disprove her reveal for the timing of her reveal, how up to that point she wasn't making sense in her suspicions, from it being a crazy wolf-strategy to everything in between.

Then she gives us a wolf and there are still doubters, despite there being no counter reveals or no credible reasons beyond "this is a grand conspiratorial wolf-scheme" and we're all being played.

Every detail fits, and trust me on this, wolves can not create such air-tight fake reveals. I'll grant Shasta's point that the more details the better chance of a successful fake reveal, but they can't create something that fits this well.

Let's say you're right wilwa, can you answer why Lottie would give up Pitch? Pitch was basically written off as an innocent, based on Mnemo's vote for him, and Pitch's vote for Mnemo. So why give up Pitch, because he wasn't going to be on anyone's wolf-radar for a while?

Also, as I said to Nog, I don't like anyone saying "I don't want to lynch her today, but if she's not killed in a few days we should" business, because you are providing a great reason the wolves shouldn't kill her. If she is innocent, the wolves aren't going to kill her if everyone is saying we should lynch her if she's not dead in a few days.

I mean seriously, it does no good except to the wolves to continue to doubt Lottie's claim. And there is absolutely no foundation, or logic to even entertain the crazy possibility that she is a wolf. I will entertain the possibility that she hasn't revealed full details of her secret role, but I will speak in this absolute...she's not working for the wolves if she handed us one of them, and one who no one was seriously suspecting.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

There could be restrictions placed on the Ranger and Hunter revealing

If not, I would prefer only the Hunter revealing, because sometimes a known hunter is more dangerous to the wolves than a hidden one. Where a known ranger is just a dead Ranger. The problem here is, they can both PM, so the Hunter may understandably think if he/she reveals this gives up the Ranger to the wolves anyway. So, for the time being let's just let the Hunter and Ranger do what they will. They've done well to stay alive thus far and the benefits of them revealing now (or even tomorrow..etc - again assuming they can with no restrictions) doesn't seem to out weigh the cost of having our gifteds exposed.

We've made good, and wise decisions so far, lets not make a mess of things if we don't have to.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

You don't have to worry about the former, or saying anyone "I told you so." As far as the latter..."giving up on life altogether" it looks like you're trying to look for sympathy about how you've been wrong/get suspected all the time for your Day 1 vote, and sympathy does not make you look any better. Trying to pull a Greenie on me?

Let me also say, you're not only suspected for your first vote on me. That is not even my only reason for suspecting you. The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her. Look, I'm innocent, you might not like me saying it, but I am and Mnemo wasn't. Sorry, if that makes me suspicious of you.

And that still isn't the only reasons. I agree with Shasta that your vote for Nienna came out of the blue, and your reasons for doubting Lottie's claim were also suspicious. It's not possible for everyone who doubted her to be a wolf, but one of your reasons was because the limitted seer wasn't as exciting as you thought the secret-role was going to be? And now you and Nog still are trying to discredit her innocence because she wasn't killed yesterday, and your reasons today is you think that everyone believed her far too quickly?

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

Ah, yes... as a gifted in that game, I remember feeling strangely superfluous...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with this, I have recently falsed revealed in a game and I think my large amount of details is what got me believed for as long as it did. And since her role is a secret role we don't know anything about it, so of course she could give lots of details.

A fair point.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at 812.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why do you say everyone completely believes her? That's not what I'm seeing at all.

More like a larger number of people then I feel comfortable with. I just think it's odd that as many people as there are would be so against never lynching her, I mean I get that she looks crazy good, and I want so badly to believe her, but there's still a part of me that's paranoid that she's totally fooling us, and I'm just surprised that not everyone is willing to consider that.

x'ed with Brinn

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?

It does, but weren't you the one who voted for Inzil on Day 1 not because you thought he was all that suspicious, but that Mac and Mnemo looked more innocent? It'll be an interesting stat to find out how many times someone actually votes for their "top suspect."

Now wilwa is my top suspect, and I voted for her first, because I wanted to see her lynched 2 days ago, and I still do. I'm slightly concerned about how she looks like the easy lynch that Nienna supposedly was, but also consider this. There's 2 wolves left, if wilwa is one of them, than all the jumps on her today are likely to be innocent driven. If not, than there's definitely wolf involvement.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

We'll have to agree to disagree on those two, but this is what makes WW so fascinating to play all the mesh of styles and opinions.

Originally Posted by Shasta

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times.

I noticed the effort, which based on your track record, I don't know if it really helps...your involvement is kind of scary actually. In all seriousness though, you're pointing this out does look better. I'll try to, I was going to point out your point about Bes looking good because of Pitch saying Lottie should dream of him. But I didn't really see a point since I was just going to agree with you. For some reason, I only feel the need to respond when we disagree...I do not know why that could be?

I also know that you like to make big votes at the DL, but so far the suspicious thing is you have been off. I mean even when you go through great efforts to try not to lynch a wolf (*cough* sally and me */cough*) you somehow do it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

I guess he was innocent enough to not be considered a lynch for quite a while, but suspected enough (even though it was very vague), to not be an obvious ranger choice.

Oh, fair interpretation of Eomer's suspiciousness, and it would explain all the differences of opinion there.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, the ranger would have dissuaded me from Lottie or Lommy.

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

Originally Posted by Mac

Why not Boro? He's not getting much suspicion either. I suppose Boro's suspicions are either very wrong or very right.

Can we lynch Wilwa on these grounds (meaning the latter of course)?

Originally Posted by Mac

Can't rep you yet, Lommy, will get to it.

What's all this talk about repping? And do I get the mammoth post award or are you just grateful for me defending you...?

Originally Posted by Boro

And I didn't call you stupid, so don't say that about yourself.

No, you didn't, but your point more or less assumes so. And that happens in ww all the time: people make points (sometimes out of thoughtlessness) that assume some people are acting stupidly, and no one should be offended by such points or pointing out that the points assume so. And besides, smart people have been doing stupid things (or maybe the word "stupid" is a bit harsh here) in ww since the beginning, everybody makes mistakes. But people still feel naturally slightly annoyed if they are accused of doing something that seems stupid to them and what they haven't done...

Originally Posted by Boro

It aggravates me when people start suspecting me, because I'm not dead by a certain day, because there's no way to defend yourself from those suspicions. Maybe I should just ignore it, but as weak as they are, those types of suspicions snowball, on top of them being really frustrating, because it assumes if I'm not killed by a certain day, I'm a wolf.

Tell me how you would feel if most people were saying (about you): "It's good to keep Lommy around for a few days, because she can be very useful. But if she's not dead by a certain day, she's probably a wolf, therefor she's no more use and it would be a good idea to lynch her." I read stuff like that as...wow I'm only useful up to a certain day, and the only reason I am given those few days is because I can be useful, if I'm innocent. Seriously that's what it sounds like, and it's aggravating.

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included. (Although with me there's less to wonder since I've been suspected more than you, for example, but that's a side issue.) And like I said, I'm casting suspicion on myself on that logic as well, and indeed that kind of suspicion has been cast on me before, not maybe as often as on you (I don't know your history with this) but I know how it feels.

Lastly, I would like to point out the difference between "Boro is still alive, he must be guilty" and "Boro, Nogrod, Mac and Lommy are all still alive, one of them must be guilty". In the first case, there's only one innocent person labelled guilty because he's considered helpful/dangerous and still alive, in the last case one of the four is labelled guilty (and three out of four innocent...) because there's a certain "group" of players that is still alive. It's the same as if all the silent people in the game were still alive at this point or if all the wacky posters were still alive or whatever: it's simply the fact that wolves like to keep people with similar styles around in order not to attract attention to themselves and it has nothing to do with the assumption "if you're a veteran player and no one suspects you, you must be dead by Day4".

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

But in general, my top suspects are out of the aforementioned category. Currently my best guess at it is a Wilwa+Brinn combination (not sure if that works out together, I have to have a look at it possibly).


edit: xed with Boro and Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinn

You can't really predict how someone may act effort-wise as a wolf, as it can change each game depending on time, calculated style changes, etc. I don't see how Shasta's high activity makes him more innocent. Why do you think he would be more lazy as a wolf? That could be a very wild guess considering in all the games he's played, Shasta has only been a wolf like twice. One of which I was a wolf with him and I actually recall that he was fairly active, though perhaps my memory is mistaken since that was a long time ago. Anyway, I find it interesting that you use me as an example of a wolf who wastes a lot of energy on analyses considering I haven't made a single analysis and yet you still suspected me yesterDay.

First off, activity and analyses are two different things. I may be very active as a wolf, but I do less analyses than as an innocent because I rather talk around randomly than wade through the archives to find evidences of guilt that don't exist. But still, as a wolf, I have made analyses, sure. But I didn't claim that a wolf that shares my temperament wouldn't do that, only that it's less likely they do a lot of analyses and Shasta has several analyses this far, some of them in massive scale. I wouldn't do that as a wolf except in exceptional circumstances. Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...