WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.


At this moment I'm pretty sad that I don't really suspect anyone (but dear Boromir of course). And the fact that I'm probably getting lynched today is pretty discouraging, maybe why I'm having a hard time finding anything wrong with anyone. So my plan for the day: discuss any strategies/theories that people bring up, in order to remain useful despite my likely demise, and maybe find someone else to suspect, otherwise just voting for Boro just cause I can. Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

[satansaloser2005]

Why don't you analyze me, Wilwa? It'd take up lots of time and I think you'd enjoy it.


Also, I am in fact at work, hence my silence. Rubbish. I'm telling you, I'm going to have some time at some point to look stuff over and make proper commentary. For now though I'll just have to read through and multi-quote so I don't have to look over everything six times in order to make my comments.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen. Really, I'd much prefer it if that game never happened. Who's with me?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

What's all this talk about repping?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

Wilwa doesn't look very suspicious today anymore. This makes my life more complicated...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The roads are all icy today, and my car's iced up, so I'm not going to class. Lucky you, you get me for a while longer.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

Aha. Makes more sense. (I was thinking along the lines "as a wolf, the ranger would do this and that" and I was like what?! ) Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

I thought I read it all.


edit: xed with Shasta, Brinn, Wilwa and Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Don't misunderstand me, . There's a difference between her being exonerated and this being one of the (few) points in her favor. I'd be fine with a Wilwa-vote today.

Now, to look at Mac, or Boro? Either one is going to take forever...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

That's what I meant.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

edit: fixed quote, xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

If it helps, I'd lynch both of you if we could. Does that make it better?




The recent discussion seems weird to me. I'm not sure if it's just me, but it seems like a lot of talk for the sake of talk. All this "Well, I've changed my mind but not really and I'm still not sure" and the continued coverage of Lottie worries me.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of course I'm not Shasta, but I would assume that a majority of wolves wouldn't "waste" so much energy on analyses (many would, but not a majority).

I disagree. If they have the time, I'd think wolves would want to analyse more. Because with an analysis, they can build a better case against an innocent to get them lynched. Well reasoned votes after an analysis don't get questioned as much as a votes made without providing analysis first.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And I'm using you as an example because I'm still very impressed with one game where you were a wolf and posted an analysis of every single person on Day5 or something and stayed up until very late doing that...

Are you talking about The Republic? I put a lot of effort into that one because I had to survive as a lone wolf for five Days and went to extreme measures to do so. But I also remember a game of Nogrod's where I spent literally all night analysing and by the end of the game had 70-something pages of handwritten notes. And what role was I? An ordo. But at the same time, I know I've also been a lazy wolf. Basically what I'm saying is that if anyone tries to figure me out based on my effort, they won't get anywhere because it frequently changes and mostly has to do with RL. It's also why I try to avoid suspecting/disregarding people for this reason, because surely I'm not the only one who is like this.

I have to run to class and won't be back, so time to go:

++Lommy

If you want reasons, just look through my posts from the past two Days. Sorry, but I really have to go now so I just don't have time to further explain here.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Again, I'm not saying lets lynch her, but I don't like how quick everyone is to completely believe her, we could all be getting fooled.

Everyone was quick to believe her? Huh? There were extensive efforts to try and disprove her reveal for the timing of her reveal, how up to that point she wasn't making sense in her suspicions, from it being a crazy wolf-strategy to everything in between.

Then she gives us a wolf and there are still doubters, despite there being no counter reveals or no credible reasons beyond "this is a grand conspiratorial wolf-scheme" and we're all being played.

Every detail fits, and trust me on this, wolves can not create such air-tight fake reveals. I'll grant Shasta's point that the more details the better chance of a successful fake reveal, but they can't create something that fits this well.

Let's say you're right wilwa, can you answer why Lottie would give up Pitch? Pitch was basically written off as an innocent, based on Mnemo's vote for him, and Pitch's vote for Mnemo. So why give up Pitch, because he wasn't going to be on anyone's wolf-radar for a while?

Also, as I said to Nog, I don't like anyone saying "I don't want to lynch her today, but if she's not killed in a few days we should" business, because you are providing a great reason the wolves shouldn't kill her. If she is innocent, the wolves aren't going to kill her if everyone is saying we should lynch her if she's not dead in a few days.

I mean seriously, it does no good except to the wolves to continue to doubt Lottie's claim. And there is absolutely no foundation, or logic to even entertain the crazy possibility that she is a wolf. I will entertain the possibility that she hasn't revealed full details of her secret role, but I will speak in this absolute...she's not working for the wolves if she handed us one of them, and one who no one was seriously suspecting.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think this is a valid idea. And I just went to double check, the Ranger and Hunter can PM each other at Night, so I think them knowing each other's identity would make it way harder for any false reveals, as long as they are both still alive, even then though, still makes it easier. Unless both wovles revealed as one, but I see that as being extremely unlikely.

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

There could be restrictions placed on the Ranger and Hunter revealing

If not, I would prefer only the Hunter revealing, because sometimes a known hunter is more dangerous to the wolves than a hidden one. Where a known ranger is just a dead Ranger. The problem here is, they can both PM, so the Hunter may understandably think if he/she reveals this gives up the Ranger to the wolves anyway. So, for the time being let's just let the Hunter and Ranger do what they will. They've done well to stay alive thus far and the benefits of them revealing now (or even tomorrow..etc - again assuming they can with no restrictions) doesn't seem to out weigh the cost of having our gifteds exposed.

We've made good, and wise decisions so far, lets not make a mess of things if we don't have to.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Sidenote: if he's guilty I'm never trusting him again and in advance I'd like to say I told you so.....if he's innocent, well then I just give up on life altogether....

You don't have to worry about the former, or saying anyone "I told you so." As far as the latter..."giving up on life altogether" it looks like you're trying to look for sympathy about how you've been wrong/get suspected all the time for your Day 1 vote, and sympathy does not make you look any better. Trying to pull a Greenie on me?

Let me also say, you're not only suspected for your first vote on me. That is not even my only reason for suspecting you. The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her. Look, I'm innocent, you might not like me saying it, but I am and Mnemo wasn't. Sorry, if that makes me suspicious of you.

And that still isn't the only reasons. I agree with Shasta that your vote for Nienna came out of the blue, and your reasons for doubting Lottie's claim were also suspicious. It's not possible for everyone who doubted her to be a wolf, but one of your reasons was because the limitted seer wasn't as exciting as you thought the secret-role was going to be? And now you and Nog still are trying to discredit her innocence because she wasn't killed yesterday, and your reasons today is you think that everyone believed her far too quickly?

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.