WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Thinlómien]

I don't know why, but I get huge wolvish vibes from Wilwa's first post, more so on the first than on the second reading, though.

Shasta is seeming a lot more innocent to me since he's putting so much effort to the game. It is difficult for me to see a wolf-Shasta analysing stuff so thoroughly. I know that some wolves waste a lot of energy on analyses to look innocent or to get something to say (like Brinn), but some are lazy and avoid analyses because they're so much work and because they can't really profit of them the same way as innocents (like me). I'm not sure, but I think Shasta is more of the latter sort (and this is not an offense, or then it's also an offense against myself too - I think it's more a question of temperament ).

Shasta - I agree that Mac's interactions with Pitch are weird, but like I said yesterDay, if he's a wolf, he was trying to get fellow Mnemo lynched on Day2 and fellow Pitch was trying to get him lynched on Day1, and that is a bit too much of a stretch for my imagination at least.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

No, really, you're misinterpreting me again. I didn't mean I couldn't be bothered to pay attention or that I was bored - I had just problems getting a grip of the game after a long pause, that's it. However, that had nothing to do with my role: I bet I could've been just as lost as a wolf. I'm not one of those people who think the game becomes more interesting if I'm a wolf, more on the contrary since I don't like being a wolf. So, what I mean is that you should not make any conclusions on my role based on me feeling "detached", that could've happened to me with having any role (except possibly the seer since that is the most adrenaline-y role there is or some role I have never tried before, like the cobbler, but we don't need to bother ourselves with that because those roles are not included in this game). So take me either as an innocent feeling detached or a wolf feeling detached pretending to be an innocent feeling detached. And Shasta, no, I'm not going to say I'm feeling detached again, but simply because I have felt a lot more involved in the game (got the grip on it, so to speak) since sometime on Day2 (you can even check, I think I said it already then).

Originally Posted by Loslote

Interesting. She trusts Wilwa's analysis but puts her in the probably guilty category, and puts Pitchie in the probably innocent category. Hm...

I have no problems trusting people's analyses even if I suspect them: I very much doubt anyone is going to lie or hide stuff in their analyses even if they are wolves - that wouldn't be smart at all. My general attitude towards the facts provided in analyses is trusting while my attitude towards the conclusions of the analyses may be very critical. For proof: when I was writing my big analysis post ysterDay, I was using as my help summary posts from Nienna, Sally, Nogrod, Eomer, Mac and Wilwa, all of whom featured on my suspicion list.

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

On the Lottie issue... I tend to agree with Boro and Nerwen: let's let her be. I have no reason not to believe her claim, and I think the "birthday dreamer" role sounds highly plausible and something Legate could've very well come up with. (And no, this is no inside information, just a personal feeling.) And Sally's theory of a secret role who's forbidden to reveal sounds far-fetched: I think our mod would've been really short-sighted to make that kind of a role and thus give the wolves a huge advantage. So I'm thinking let's let Lottie be and reconsider it if there's a counter-claim. (As a side thing, I'm really not looking forward to another quiet unanimous lynch Day.)

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

I know. I'm not stupid (stupid enough to think that as an innocent or stupid enough to try to mislead people like that as a wolf). I never said other reasons are impossible or unlikely - I just said this option exists, and you can't deny that. I know games where what I said has really happened, and those are not a few. That's what made me think of it, although I was never claiming that I suspect it's so in this game. It is a possibility we shouldn't dismiss, as well as we shouldn't dwell on it as long as there's nothing really pointing at it (most of the village is still alive etc).

Originally Posted by Boro

Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.

Bossing me around, eh? Well, I'm afraid it's an assumption we've all heard hundreds of times before, also. Inzil, Greenie and Eomer are all smart and independent thinkers, more difficult to lead than some and also less probable to make "alliances" with anybody. Maybe they died because the wolves thought them to be more difficult to thwart or get to their side than others. Or maybe they died because they seemed gifted: all these people tend to have a sort of "reserved" aura around them, which makes them usually feel more gifted than some other innocent players who scream ordo all the time (not necessarily being ones, though). My logic says the wolves would try to get the ranger (and have the hunter die rather early than late when there's a bigger probability for him/her to take one of them to death), so who knows, maybe these people have had a suspicious-looking connection with another player?

But if the wolves are merely looking for gifteds (like I would if I was them) there's precious little to analyse in their kills or conclude from them. Of course one could read each Day from the wolves' perspective and try to think "who looks gifted" and start thinking why the certain person was picked from all gifted-looking people, but that would be both futile and time-consuming: the effort would not be worth the results. And the gifted-hunting strategy could occur to any wolves, so it doesn't point at anybody special being a wolf.

Okay, let's assume for argument's sake, wolves are not after gifteds but want to remove independent thinkers. Who would then be a wolf? At least someone who seeks to lead and affect big masses, possibly someone who likes forming sort of alliances. I would put you, Boro, and Nogrod to the first category without hesitation, maybe some others. And to the second category, at least Sally and Wilwa, possibly myself. However, this does not really lead me to suspect any of the aforementioned people, because I don't want to make the assumption that wolves just want to get rid of independent thinkers.

And lastly, let's take a wacky theory that just occured to me. Maybe wolves are after ordos this time? Any gifted-looking player is with 50% chance the hunter and the ranger has reduced power when s/he's blind without a seer around - and how probable it is that a ranger makes a save randomly anyway? (Okay I just realised this doesn't really play out because it leaves a lot of possible revealers around, but let's keep going for the sake of the argument.) This could again be true, because maybe they thought Inzil was an ordo since he didn't reveal in the last minutes of Day1 (hey that actually makes sense!), and at least to me Greenie seemed very ordoish this time and maybe Eomer's boldness could've been interpreted that way. An ordo-killing wolf pack would consist of at least two bold wolves who could firstly even come up with this kind of idea and wouldn't be afraid of revealment-battles.

That's all I can come up with right now as long as it goes for general killing patterns, and I'm afraid these musings didn't make me any wiser, because none of my hypotheses seems likely. I would go for the interpretation that each kill had its own different motives and what they were, I have no idea of without reading the whole thread (eurgh) except that of course I can say general stuff like "everybody thought Greenie innocent".

Actually the only thing I've got from this is just the thought that since there are two wolves and two gifteds remaining (aprt from Los) the gifteds would do us a favor by revealing themselves before the last Day, if we happened to only lynch innocents from now on. I can just imagine the Day with five people with the gifteds saying "hi, we are the gifteds" and the wolves saying "no, we are the gifteds" and the poor ordo being left to choose... But anyway, this is not relevant yet, so no need to dwell on that now. I just wanted to mention it.

Oh, and that also goes for the hypothetical true secret role holder... I'm not going to buy it if anyone comes out on the last Day and claims to be "the Night7 birthday seer" or whatever.

Mac's analysis of Nogrod is interesting, although it leaves me just as undecided as it apparently left Mac himself...


edit: xed with Boro and Sally and sorry for writing such a novel!
edit2: fixed bolding