WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta, how does Inzil's death point at Wilwa's innocence? I could follow your analysis otherwise, but I didn't get that part.

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen. Really, I'd much prefer it if that game never happened. Who's with me?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

??? What does this sentence mean? It doesn't make any sense to me.

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

What's all this talk about repping?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

Wilwa doesn't look very suspicious today anymore. This makes my life more complicated...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The roads are all icy today, and my car's iced up, so I'm not going to class. Lucky you, you get me for a while longer.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If a Wilwa-wolf was putting in the effort to keep Inzil a viable lynch candidate, why would she then (as a wolf) kill him at night? Just seems odd to me.

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Mac

As a wolf, I would have liked Lottie and you gone the most, but I would have expected the ranger to protect one of you two, which would have made Eomer the better prospect.

Aha. Makes more sense. (I was thinking along the lines "as a wolf, the ranger would do this and that" and I was like what?! ) Lottie is obvious, but why me, though?

I said I would rep everyone who would read my entire long post. Since you missed that, you probably didn't read the whole one and no longer qualify.

I thought I read it all.


edit: xed with Shasta, Brinn, Wilwa and Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Ok, I see. But I don't think it exonerates her - if her fellows had good reasons for killing him, would she have objected? I don't think so.

Don't misunderstand me, . There's a difference between her being exonerated and this being one of the (few) points in her favor. I'd be fine with a Wilwa-vote today.

Now, to look at Mac, or Boro? Either one is going to take forever...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

That's what I meant.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

edit: fixed quote, xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

If it helps, I'd lynch both of you if we could. Does that make it better?




The recent discussion seems weird to me. I'm not sure if it's just me, but it seems like a lot of talk for the sake of talk. All this "Well, I've changed my mind but not really and I'm still not sure" and the continued coverage of Lottie worries me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not really seeing what's so suspicious about Lommy, to be perfectly honest. Boro looks better from what he's said today, but his actions in the past still worry me a bit, and Mac is still probably my second-top-suspect due to his interactions with Pitch.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included.

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

Afterwards will be a better time to explain, but I'll sum up. It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation). As a wolf, I love taking full advantage of it, but as an innocent it makes me feel pretty rotten. And the other part about being suspected simply for the fact that I haven't been killed yet. Now, I grant you weren't saying, I must be a wolf now, but if that's all your only reason to suspect me...fine...but that still doesn't mean I'm going to like it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

Her vote for me:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

The only way you know your theory is correct though is to know wilwa's role. Trying to figure out your theory now will just drive you insane and confuse you.

This is what I was trying to say towards the end on the day Nienna was lynched and people were popping out vaguely suspecting Eomer. Instead of following where the evidence leads (granted we all have to make assumptions about the evidence too, but at least that is based off of "known" info...such as deaths and roles) people have a tendancy to want to drive themselves crazy trying to figure out whether someone (like me) is fooling them, instead of going for the simple route.

The simple route is not always correct (as evidenced with Nienna being innocent), but it is the wisest and overall safer route. Since I've formed such strong opinions on wilwa, knowing her role will reveal a lot to me. I can say the same about Mac or Nerwen, who I have a pretty strong feeling they're innocent, but still wonder if they're fooling me. I can come to more solid conclusions by finding out their role for sure too. To ask a rhetorical question though, do I lynch the person, who will help me figure things out more and who I think is a wolf, or the one who I think is innocent?

If wilwa's a wolf, than everyone piling on her today makes sense as it looks to be an innocently driven bandwagon. If not, then there's still 2 wolves and it has definite wolf inolvement.

Also, it may look "too easy" but it is safer than saying you suddenly don't like voting for wilwa, because you have a theory of being fooled by the veterans (or someone else)...yet you can't possibly know how accurate that theory is until you know for sure about wilwa.

++wilwa

I'm willing to stand by that vote and bet she's a wolf. If not, than I'll accept the consequences. I'm just asking you trust the info, and me, above crap-shoot shot in the dark misgivings about being fooled.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her.

Actually I believe all I did was admit that she was acting differently then she had been the day before, but I don't think I said she looked bad, at the time I didn't think she did. And again, no matter who I voted for it would have tied them with Mnemo, and I wasn't going to vote for her when I didn't think she was guilty (cause that's just a bad idea) so really no matter what I would have done it would have made me look bad. I just want you to understand it from where I'm sitting, because of the timing of my vote no matter what way I'd have gone it could have been seen as a bad vote.

And I know how good this whole thing makes Lottie look, and she probably is innocent, but I'm just paranoid. Since it's a secret role a wolf could easily make something up that sounds believable. I have no intention of voting for her or anything, I just don't want her to slip under our radar if there's even the slightest chance she's playing us. That's all I'm saying. Just trying to cover all the bases.

x'ed with Boro x 2, and so it begins...

[Nerwen]

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

EDIT:X'd with two Boros and Wilwa.