WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[skip spence]

So, Sally was a wolf. Well spotted, friends! And this is very good, because now we have a little more information (useful or not) to work with. I'll attempt a little list having reviewed Day 2.

Glirdan – He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

But what would the three other wolves do when it became apparent that their pack-mate was in trouble, as was the case with Sally? They can’t make any obvious rescue-attempts, because that would cast them in a bad light if or when Sally’s identity becomes known. But they would try to help their fellow if they could do it more subtly, as long as that help is easily explained away as being motivated by other factors. By voting for a new lynch-candidate, or by voting and arguing for a candidate that may seem suspicious to innocents but is known to be innocent by the wolves that help may be contrived with the aid of some luck. No such luck last night though, wolfies?


Nogrod – Cheshire Cat
Has not been on my mind much because I've seen little to make me worried. Will try to review his behaviour later.

Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Behaves a little erratic. Not sure what this means yet. Did vote Sally at a fairly crucial point.

Mira – March Hare
Suspiciously quiet and non-committing. A throw-away vote on day 2. A wolf? Could be...
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Got my eyes on her. It is curious that when Agan started the 'All innocent people should drop their retractable vote'-campaign, Sally was the first, and this far the only person to follow suit. Was this a plan that back-fired? Her voting-record is also a little suspect, especially on day 2 when she voted Inzil while downplaying the Sally suspicion somewhat. Could that be a careful attempt at helping a wolf-mate out of a tight spot? Maybe, maybe not.

Inzil – King of Hearts
Tough call. Voted for Glirdan when Sally's back was against the wall which may cast him into a bad light, but he could also have been on a honest wolf-hunt.

Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Non-committing and suspicious. Keeps a low profile with two throw-away votes.

Lottie – Duchess
Seem to be throwing a lot of wild accusations around. Was right about Sally though. Was that just dumb luck or brilliant perception?

Nerwen – the Dodo
Has been quiet and is hard to read. Voted Sally at an early stage on Day 2 which makes her look good.

Legate – Jabberwocky
Has shown commitment in the voting, not throwing away his votes but going after people who are likely to become lynched and also did vote Sally at a point when it mattered. I like that: an honest villager knows that people must die in order for us to to win the game.

Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Not too worried about Morsul at the moment. Voting and behaviour suggest innocence.

Nienna – White Queen
Had the chance to save Sally at the last minute but chose to pull the trigger. Was also one of the first, perhaps the first, to raise suspicions on Sally. Probably an honest villager.

Lommy – the Gryphon
Not sure where I have Lommy. Nothing overtly suspicious about her. Voted for Glirdan on Day 2.

Greenie – White Knight
Slightly suspicious I must say. May be busy in real life but I'd like to see her participating at bit more eagerly in the hunt.

Brinniel – Tweedledee
Has looked good and honest. Voted Sally at a crucial stage.

Will try to have a more detailed look at some people later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

So, Sally was a wolf. Well spotted, friends! And this is very good, because now we have a little more information (useful or not) to work with. I'll attempt a little list having reviewed Day 2.

Glirdan – He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits.

While your reasoning is sound, in practice what we call "wolf-on-wolf" voting is rather common, and yesterDay was pretty much a classic situation for it, with Sallywolf under suspicion from early on, and the wolfpack being able to afford losing a member (three left, after all). It would probably be more important to them to try and look good than to save her. It's rare for the entire pack to survive, even when they win. (Note: this is a general tip, not meant just to apply to Glirdan.)

Anyway, my recollection is that Glirdan's suspicion of Sally was quite lukewarm at first, and that he put forward some others, which no-one really bit on. I suppose I'd better go and check (though I agree with whoever said we shouldn't focus too much on him alone).

EDIT:X'd with Greenie. Added comment.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Mira and Skip I had no quotes on - either because they didn't say anything about her at all, I've lost the quotes in my vast sea of quotes, or they didn't say anything about her that wasn't banter. Please, sweeties, fill me in on which is true.

I haven't discussed Sally much before no. I voted Glirdan while suggesting that Sally may well be a wolf. Just wanted to keep it close and interesting near the dl.

A few Sally-episodes I found worth while quoting:

Early Day 1:

Glirdan: Yay!! It's time to hunt for the Wolvsies and have some tea!! Speaking of tea...Sally would you be so kind as to move your furry little behind into a different pot? ...

Sally: He's making a joking accusation right there. Do you see it? DO YOU SEE IT?!?! 'Furry little behind' my furry little behind.

(what's this all about? Coincidence?)

Day 1:

Sally: Oh, and I love retractable votes, but I'll just drive myself mad if I have a free pass to mindchanging sitting around. With that.... [retracts her vote]

(Sally is trying to make herself look innocent off Agan’s lead?)

Day 2:

Sally(post 345): Inzil: Not a wolf. Plain and simple. Don't ask me how I know, I just do.

Too late to ask now. Clearly Sally did know. But was she lying?

[Nerwen]

(includes Sally's comments about Glirdan only)

Votes:
Sally 2
Glirdan 1

#311

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Late For Tea Time
Gah! Sorry I haven't been on at all today, haven't been home at all since yesterday morning and I'm just getting in now and have only been able to check up on who was killed and I am sad to see Boro gone. I am going to go back and read through things now.

#328
Banter; makes a long but quite superfluous case for Lottie's being the Shirriff. Then-

Originally Posted by Glirdan

After going through Lottie's anaysils of Sally, it does seem as if she (that is to say Sally) just seems to be jumping onto other people's suspicions and piggybacking her way through and not forming any of her own idea's. Hmmmm.....

(...)

Sally is really starting to look bad in my eyes. Will form a fully solid opinion once I have thoroughly gone through the other pages and have caught up.

So that confirms my impression: his initial suspicion of Sally isn't really that strong (or, as he puts it, not a "fully solid opinion"), and he's leaving himself plenty of space to back away from it.


#338

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Address some things before I go on:

Would you rather me just come back on and start spewing utter nonsense seeing as I have been absent for most of the Day? I'm just trying to get caught up, but if that makes me suspicious in yours, so be it.

Mind explaining those? Because they are rather vague and it just seems to me like you're trying to get by on the tailcoats of others, which happens to be a very Wolfish tactic by the by.

Glirdan defends himself against Greenie's charges, then attacks wintywinty on the very same grounds.

What can I say? That's one jaw-dropper of a post there. It seems almost too careless to the work of a wolf– however, note that wintywinty must have looked quite lynchable at that point.

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 4
Glirdan 2
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1

#345
Sally lists her thoughts on everyone. Of Glirdan she says:

Originally Posted by Sally

He's honestly not been around much. What he's said is a bit strange, but at the same time I don't have a good enough hold on him to specifically say "Kill! Kill". He is, however, popping onto other people's suspicions and things, which seems very wolfish the way he's doing it. Wolf? Maybe!

She does, however, put him amongst those she "suspects", along with Morsul, Legate, wintywinty and Shasta.


#383
Glirdan defends himself against Lottie and Lommy, finds Legate suspicious:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He's making concise arguments, yes, but some of the points he is bringing up (like the one mentioned above) are things that would be fairly obvious to all of us with the exception of our new players. So why point it out?

Also mentions Sally as being on his suspicion list, and is "worried" about Mira and yours truly.

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 5
Glirdan 2
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1

#403
Glirdan likes Agan's points on wintywinty. Now finds Sally "ridiculously guilty" (on the basis, apparently, of a single "waaaaay too defensive" post, while Mira "has made my eyebrows rise" and wintywinty "has me at a crossroads".


#409
Glirdan asks Nogrod to explain what was "interesting" (regarding a post where Glirdan seemed to be echoing ww's phrasing).

Attacks Sally's post at #345:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

What really gets me is that you say that you don't have enough to suspect me on, yet in that exact same post you put me in your suspect list.

Doesn't like wintywinty's vote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

How hard is it to come up with one to two sentences on why you think said person is suspicious before you leave? It takes two seconds! Unless you really have no idea and are just going along with the pack and will get your reasoning from a fellow Wolf later on?

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 6
Glirdan 2
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1

#417

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Sorry, I actually missed the rest of it:

Glirdan revisits Sally's post on him and now finds it even more suspicious (though apparently due to a misunderstanding).

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 6
Glirdan 3
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1

#430

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well, I'm voting now

++Sally

For suspicions that I've stated in earlier posts all Day....well, since I've been here.

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 7
Glirdan 4
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1

#437

Originally Posted by Sally

Well for what it's worth I'm pretty much positive Glirdan's evil. His posts of late just scream it to me and further my prior suspicion of him. So yeah.

__________________________________________________ ___
Votes:
Sally 8
Glirdan 5
Shasta 1
Morsul 1
wintywinty 1
Zil 1


#445

Originally Posted by Sally

What the....that doesn't even make sense. Not even commentary, just a vote?

You. Are. Bonkers.

Oh, and because Wilwa's bothering me....

++Glirdan

#446

Originally Posted by Sally

Nienna, Glirdan's a wolf. A WOLF! LYNCH HIM!@

I'm surrounded by mad people.

Comments:

Well, some people seem to have got the idea that Glirdan was active in getting Sally lynched, but as we can see here he at first merely echoed other player's points on her in a fairly non-committal way, increased his suspicion gradually as her votes accumulated and only went after her heavily once she had 5 votes.

Meanwhile, Sally "suspected" him early in the piece– again in a non-committal way– and made no further mention of him until near the end, when she suddenly become "positive" he was guilty, and went on to make her famous "LYNCH HIM!" post.

Well. That all looks pretty damning, doesn't it?

However, there are some points against a wolf-on-wolf theory:

1. Up to #403 Glirdy was, by his own account, still reading through the Day and may not have been keeping track of the voting.
2. Glirdan was the runner-up in the voting, the only viable lynch-candidate other than Sallywolf herself. This would have become clear to both parties towards the close of the Day, giving Sally a motive for trying to lynch an innocent Glirdan and innocent-Glirdan a reason to want to suspect her.
3. Glirdan, to put it bluntly, does tend to just go with the flow. (It's actually quite weird, by the way, how often he accuses other players of doing exactly this). Thus, an innocent Glirdan might well have been honestly influenced by the increasing suspicion against Sally.

Whew. That all took MUCH TOO LONG.

Back later.

EDIT:X'd with Brinniel and 2 Legates; wording;formatting.

[Aganzir]

Hi I'm here. However I have very little time so I'm going to read as much as I can...

I doubt we can make much of sally's last words (or the whole of her yesterday participation, for that matter). She probably knew she was going to die and did her best to confuse us as much as she could.

Morsul looks better to me today, I can follow his logic about sally. However I don't think the fact that she tried to lynch Glirdan tells us anything about his role.

There are some people I want to have a look at today, but it will have to wait until evening because I have something to attend to shortly. I'm basically speaking about Shasta, Nerwen, Glirdan and Brinn because I need to clear my thoughts about them. However I'll have to see how many of them I have time for today.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Understandably is annoyed by me (I am sorry, dear, I plead temporary insanity due to sickness...flimsy excuse, I know

It's alright, and it's actually good my net died when it did because I had come very close to snapping my temper (I can only explain it by having been rather mood swingy lately)... I hope I didn't irritate you too much.

I have this gut feeling that if Inzil is a wolf, Shasta might be too. There's just something, I don't know, it was Shasta's interaction with Greenie who suspected Inzil that made me think so, but I recall feeling vaguely uneasy about Shasta earlier. I will have to look at it more closely.

Lommy had a good point about Izzy's death possibly pointing to Glirdan's guilt.

Originally Posted by skip

At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf

Yes but Lottie (known innocent) went heavily after them both and they probably knew one was likely to day yesterday... So if both are wolves they might have decided to stage a fight so the remaining one would look more innocent today. I don't know.

Originally Posted by skip

Agan – Queen of Hearts
Got my eyes on her.

Hardly surprising.

Originally Posted by skippy

Her voting-record is also a little suspect, especially on day 2 when she voted Inzil while downplaying the Sally suspicion somewhat.

While making my summary, I originally put sally on the Guilty list without giving it much thought other than that others found her suspicious. Then I was like, I haven't gone through her posts, I haven't picked up anything myself that would point toward her guilt, Lottie suspects her strongly but heck she's wrong about me too! I didn't feel justified to keep her on the Guilty list. And in any case, I suspected Inzil more than sally.

So I have to leave in a couple of minutes... I'll go through yesterday later.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Me

Got my eyes on her

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not surprising

But don't you think it's only because of your good looks my dear Aganzir.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.

Originally Posted by Inzil

When you say one makes 'great contributions', I take that to mean you approve of the things they've said. That's why I thought Glirdan was being contradictory there.

Ok, that's cleared - I understood great to mean considerable of size/quantity/importance.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Okay, after reading through as my much-less-tired self, I still don't like the way Greenie quoted Inzil out-of-context. It seems to me fairly obvious that Inzil thought Glirdan was being contradictory in his post about Nerwen, which is a fair reason for suspicion, so I don't see where the "grasping at straws" fits in. Especially as Inzil looked to be under a bit of suspicion yesterday.

Yeah. It was partly that I misunderstood Inzil, partly that I didn't like the way he seemed to imply that making sense and being a wolf can't go together.

Originally Posted by Shasta

TLDR; Nienna looks slightly worse to me for this comment and Greenie looks worse for saying it makes Nienna look better.

A probably irrelevant question: what does TLDR mean?

Originally Posted by Lottie

Anyway, though, my point is that waking up the known innocent from blind suspicion is not a good move for a wolf to make, but it is a good move for an innocent.

Ok, thanks, that cleared - though I'm not sure if I buy your point.

Originally Posted by Lottie

First off, this really does look bad, Morsul. Secondly, what, exactly, do you mean by "It"? Voting early? Bandwaggoning? Because that's what you're doing, and it's not a very good method of getting wolves.

A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying. Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm back... but I don't plan to be around for very long, as I have to wake up very early tomorrow. I would actually prefer to leave in about an hour or something, so basically that means I should decide whom to vote here toDay and then go.

Before I do it, general remarks. I have become a bit worried about Aganzir now, just looking at her vote yesterDay. If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf, as it was likely other people might vote Inzil (like I could do that, for example) and also it would not be threatening any of the Wolves (Sally and Glirdan, in this scenario). Something similar might go for Greenie's vote for Shasta, in such a case. Once again, this is just with the scenario assuming Glirdan is a Wolf. (Well, I really think knowing his role would clarify many things.) However, I am remarking that with relation to Aganzir also in relation to the fact that she has been just very, well, sneaky up to now (there's probably not a better word). She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot", to the center of things where it all boils, while at the same time keeping us aware that she is around and posting and looking reasonable. That said, I do not have any particular reason to suspect her - yet. But I just thought to remark it here as a current thought that's on my mind and maybe, in future Days, it will become worth something. (Or not.)

Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else.

I'll return to the voting list once again. Basically from somewhere around the point I and WW have voted, it must have been clear for the Wolves that their sally is running up for the lynch. So now depending on the individual Wolves' nature, they'd likely try to either save her (a dangerous attempt which might expose them), or throw their votes away (and thus throwing her away as well). Greenie, Shasta and Mira (and Aganzir, however I have already mentioned her above and technically her vote came earlier, but most of the rules apply - well, see above) belong to this cathegory and it seems fairly likely that one Wolf at least would be among them. If Glirdan is a Wolf, then even more likely. On the other hand, if Glirdan is a Wolf, then I'd expect some Wolf/ves in the Sally bandwaggon. Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not. One of the things is also my suspicion for Inzil, as his vote was placed in such a way that if Glirdan is a Wolf, it would have been quite good, almost safe place for a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions. On the other hand, maybe it will be more interesting to try to repeat the feat of King Solomon (which seemed to pay off yesterDay) and vote somebody else. I will think for a bit - and then vote and go to sleep. So, around and watching and thinking...

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Greenie, it really doesn't apply in the BD world. It means "Too long, didn't read" and it's used basically if you want to people to skip to your conclusion. I just used it because I thought it was funny.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions.

When looking at the two scenarios though, Glirdan is innocent, and Glirdan is guilty, you must bare in mind that him being innocent is much likelier than not. Out of the remaining 16 villagers there are 3 wolves. Given that the accusations against Glirdan are not built on any solid evidence, they are perhaps even incidental, the probability that he is an innocent villager (or gifted) is a lot higher than him being a wolf (what, like 5 times?) There's no going around that.

[Aganzir]

Hi sorry I'm here only now, it took me about two hours longer to get home than I expected... I doubt I'll have time for everything I wanted to do but ah here we go, back to yesterday.

I find it very unlikely Mira and Zil are wolves together. I doubt wolves would vote each other so early the way Zil voted Mira (mostly based on my suspicions), and now they're apparently suspecting each other. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if one was a wolf though.

In theory, the fact that winty got confused about sally's gender suggests he's innocent. But then, the nickname sally is rather feminine...

Originally Posted by winty

Ok, I admit, my first vote was a newbie mistake; I have not played this game online before, and I did not want to admit my mistake (I hate being wrong, Lottie can attest to that.), which was my reason for saying that about Brinn.

Alright, I buy that for now... But that's not to say you're on my innocent list. Because I can't tell if you really did that, or if you first said something accidentally that you had heard from your fellows and are now trying to fix it.

Originally Posted by Mira

That was really me floundering for something to contribute than anything else.

Well, it was a rather suspicious contribution.

Originally Posted by Inzil

The push to lynch Lottie looked foul to me because I didn't think she looked evil, and it had all the hallmarks of a wolvish attempt to railroad an innocent.

Yeah but also innocents can suspect innocents. And I still fail to see why the votes of not very suspicious people make for a suspicious bandwagon. To me it looks more like you said it was suspicious for the sake of contributing something... And sometimes wolves try to save innocents (or disapprove of those voting for a certain innocents) to make themselves look better.

Originally Posted by Inzil

A threat? No. But more evidence to point toward your lupinity, my dear, if you start trying to use that as a reason so-and-so is evil.

I get the feeling you're threatening me with suspicion if I don't drop the retraction issue, darling. What's the point of saying it until I've done it? You could've waited and seen if I had actually started doing it, and only then told me it was suspicious.

I haven't had and will most likely not have time to go through Glirdan and his actions properly, but I don't think his arguments look wolfish. However he hasn't made me feel very strongly that he's innocent, either, and I agree with people who say his death would offer us insights.

Hmm I wonder if a Shastawolf had told Lottie to take off her wolf-coloured glasses... It's possible if either (or both) Glirdan or Greenie is a wolf, I suppose (just to divert her attention somewhere else, even at the risk she started suspecting another wolf). I don't know.
Okay Shasta's later post (#340) looks innocentish.

Grrr we've reached day 3 which is always a turning point for me: either I get a grip of the game or start having second thoughts about everyone. This time it's the latter.

A wolf team of winty and Mira doesn't seem plausible, either. She voted for him yesterday, saying she thinks there might be wolfish coaching going on (or then he's just a newbie). It just doesn't sound likely that she would've done that if both were wolves.

Okay after Glirdy's post #403 I'm certainly not going to vote for him. I think he looks quite innocent there, plus he brings forward Mira and winty, both of whom I have been wondering about. If he's a wolf, I find it unlikely they are, or the other way round.
And Inzil seems to totally disagree with me about that post.

Originally Posted by Brinn

My reaction was lesser? What did you expect, that I'd explode with outrage?

No, it's hard to explain... I don't know if I expected a different reaction or if I just found your reaction, dunno, odd, but it just caught my eye. I can try to explain it better when I have more time (currently all I want is to get through yesterday, vote and go to sleep).
And yup if you are fellows, I'm certain you would've instructed him the previous night. However I don't want to underestimate you, either. Why not do it twice if the second time might make you look more innocent?

CONCLUSION (based mostly on things posted after I disappeared yesterday)

Innocent
-Lottie
-Lommy. Haven't changed my mind about her.
-Legate; if he's a wolf, it would benefit him more, if not to encourage, at least to not discourage Lottie's suspicion of me. Plus his posting is reasonable.
-Nienna; see Legate.
-Greenie; I think she looks innocentish and I agree with her a lot.

Guilty
-Zil/Mira
-winty/Mira

No definite opinion about anyone else.

I'm most likely going to vote for Inzil because I'm more interested in his role than Glirdy's. And will do it in, dunno, half an hour I hope.

[skip spence]

Inzil is coming into the discussion I see. Interesting, but I have one problem with the idea. Why would a wolfish Inzil stick out his neck in what you in retrospect would call a desperate attempt to save what he knows to be a pack-mate? It seems too clumsy almost.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate

If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf

Yeah its timing was as stated by Nog, but it would've been later if my net hadn't died. And as I said I voted Inzil because I suspected him the most. I was pretty sure sally would die, and trust me if I had been a wolf with her, you know which bandwagon my vote would've ended up in.

Originally Posted by Legate

She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot"

To be honest I have a hard time seeing why people are so keen on certain issues.

I don't quite get Green's Nog suspicion.

Skippy it's usually no use analysing what a wolf has posted when she already knows she's in trouble. They can split their fellows between different categories in any way whatsoever and will do their best to confuse us and make us waste time speculating on what they meant.

[Morsul the Dark]

Only here for a minute I voted Early because I keep colliding badly with the times of the game I'm usually free all night phase and have maybe an hour or so during the day normally at the beginning.

"It" means going with my gut. Also like to point out I still have me retractable. If I didn't I might not have voted at all This way If I see something I can change... Hasn't happened yet. I'm 95% sure of this vote. I really Really Can figure out any other way Sally's vote and cry to Nienna makes sense.

Lastly I'm rushing this post... To the person who said they'd eat their hat if Nienna and I were Pack mates Don't worry your Hat shall remain in tact.

See you all tomorrow(Maybe)

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Finally back. And greetings from the admin thread. It seems we have a D3-syndrome with a host of people telling their part-taking will be minimal or null...

Back with you in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okayy... so in general. As for Izzy-kill, I think it's most likely that she was killed because several people trusted her and nobody really suspected her much. I don't think there's much to gather from there, which probably was the point for the Wolves.

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Related to that, of course, Nienna's decisive vote could be taken as important indicator if Glirdan was innocent, but we wouldn't know until he is dead, so that is not really of much help now, the matter is too hazy to speculate on right now.

Otherwise... I think the most interesting thing is how people have reacted to this sally-Glirdan thing, as for sure Wolves would have a different opinion on it (in their head) than rest of the people, as they'd know Glirdy's role, and something interesting might leak through.

Let me once again note that it was Inzil who keeps just "coming back to me on his own" (i.e. I intend not to keep looking just at him all the time and his posts jump at me anyway). This:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, looks as if I backed the wrong horse there. Glirdan could technically still be a wolf, but I doubt it. It's not so much his words toward the end of yesterDay that make him look better (I still say his attack looked evil), but this from Sallywolf:

That looks like real panic, trying to convince Nienna to vote Glirdan instead of her. If Nienna had done so and Glirdan was a wolf, the pack would be in the same situation they are now.

That said, I fully intend to vote Mira toDay, barring some major developments.

x/d with Morsul

If Glirdan is a Wolf and Zil too, this would of course be a real possibility for a defense of a fellow packmate. But you know, it's just somehow... clumsy. But in whichever way: whether for innocent or guilty Zil. Okay, he crossposted, so he didn't know what the general mood in the village is, and most of the later posts have shown actually some suspicion of Glirdan. So if Zil is a Wolf, and he wanted to support the idea that Glirdy is innocent, he misexpected (heck, could you say that? No. Is there a word for that? Hope you know what I mean) the village, which showed generally more suspicion to Glirdan this far and now Zil might stick out with trying to think Glirdan innocent. But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But that's enough about Glirdan. I'm sure he'll be analyzed to death today anyway.

Agreed... Well, now that there actually is more of a reason to suspect him, I am probably going to review him myself, because this far I didn't have reasons to suspect him. I am most looking forward to hearing from him toDay, though, and see how he posts...

Lommy has a good point about that thing that WWs might have killed somebody from Glirdy bandwagon if he's guilty, however of course that doesn't have to be like that necessarily, but it's one quite good remark to consider apart from other things.

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

EDIT: x-ed with skip.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

Okay, now I wonder, because I actually didn't find it. Something like that happened, though, it apparently doesn't have the same effect on me anymore. (Now I will spend the rest of the Day thinking about what it was...) I wonder if it might have been his vote for sally (as that's basically the only logical option), but I can't think why. Actually now rereading his posts made me think better of him, esp. if Glirdan is innocent (WW voted sally) and he also quoted Isabell in one of his posts, which given that he posted very few posts in total would somehow "link" him to her, so not sure if the Wolves would dare to kill her if about almost the only person he ever quoted was her. (Though of course, this kind of "link" is so vague that it really isn't any big deal, but...)

Okay, but whatever... for now, I am probably going to review some folks... although I should still read a piece of article for tomorrow, I might spend some time with that and then come back to the thread...

[Brinniel]

Seeing Nienna's quotes about Sally, considering she was suspecting her from earlier in the Day and the way she went about suspecting, I'd be really surprised if she wasn't innocent...in the scenario that Glirdan is innocent.

So what to do with Glirdan...

One thing I worry is that if he is innocent, this is a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching since I suspect there may be a pretty heavy bandwagon against him toDay. But on the other hand, we can't really know his role for sure until he is lynched...knowing his role would certainly shed light on some things.

I'd love to hear Glirdan's defense, but unfortunately I don't think that'll be happening before I leave for the Day.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

The Glirdy-wagon sure was an interesting one. So were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?

Let's take a look at yesterDay's voting. Here's the thing (Sally-voters are italicized, those we need not think of are underlined and the rest are bolded to make the list more readable).

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2
Lommy -> Glirdy
(Agan actually voted for Inzil here)
Greenie -> Shasta
Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4
Shasta -> Morsul
Mira -> Winty
Lottie -> Glirdy2
Agan -> Inzil
Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6
Skip -> Glirdy3
Glirdy -> Sally7
Inzil -> Glirdy4
Izzy -> Glirdy5
Nienna -> Sally8
Sally -> Glirdy6

We can look at this list first from two perspectives; assuming that Glirdy a wolf and assuming him innocent.

If Glirdy is a wolf the reading of the list is pretty hard as the wolves could possibly hide anywhere. If Glirdy is innocent, then the Glirdy-voters sure merit a closer look.

The Glirdy voters then are Lommy, Skip and Inzil.

If Glirdy is a wolf then Lommy looks good (it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes), if Glirdy is innocent Lommy looks actually pretty bad (trying to open another lynching route with picking up an easyish lynch-candidate).

Skip's vote is harder to pin down but the same basic logic applies, even if only in relative turns. Surely if Glirdy is innocent, his vote with the vagueish to and fro with Sally would look quite evil indeed (as it could be seen as a try to build up a wagon for Glirdy, even if quite desperate one), but if Glirdy is a wolf, then it's harder to say (why to press another mate forwards at that point - well that wouldn't be totally unbelievable but actually quite smart?).

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

Some of them probably just plain thought Glirdy looked more suspicious than Sally for I do not believe these three are our three wolves left. That would be a bit too daring indeed. Although, if Glirdy turns up innocent then even that should be considered.

I'll come back with those who decided to choose differently (not voting Sally or Glirdy) & Sally-voters in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.

The advantage of listening to Lottie is that at least I can be relatively certain she's not trying to mislead me. I already took issue with the fact that she apparently trusts Mira, who I think looks fairly evil.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Speaking of grasping at straws....
When you say one makes 'great contributions', I take that to mean you approve of the things they've said. That's why I thought Glirdan was being contradictory there.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).

Incredible as it may seem, no: wolf-on-wolf was not my first thought there. Why not? Probably because what Sally did would not have occurred to me, had I been in her position.
And for the record, this is game # 13 for me.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by my inscrutable and idiosyncratic self

(it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes)

Oh my. That sentence doesn't make any sense whatsoever...

What I tried to say is this: it would be foolish for a wolf to vote for fellow B, making him the second overall candidate to get votes, when fellow A has already two votes. So there would be two wolves having votes and none other...

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Well then those who walked their own paths (more epic-style to our thread ).

Greenie -> Shasta
Agan -> Inzil
The vote-count at that point was (also when Agan actually voted):
Sally2
Glirdy1
It wouldn't be the most effective way to help Sally but as the vote was made relatively early it might have been somewhat good idea for a fellow wolf putting another "easyish" voting candidate into the list (increasing the chances that someone else will get the noose eventually), and if Glirdy is a wolf, then her choice of adding a new candidate would be obvious.

Shasta -> Morsul
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Sally was clearly taking the heat there so just to defend her Shasta's move isn't the best one to help out a fellow, but seeing that he himself had a vote as well it could be possible Shasta-wolf decided to bring forwards a new candidate - not to talk of the possibility only wolves had gathered votes at that point of the Day!

Mira -> Winty
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Morsul1
Now this is an interesting choice. One more "easy lynch" candidate thrown into the lot. There were a host of votes to come as it was relatively early so why not put all the baits in there so that someone would pass Sally? And many had suspected winty, so maybe the "benefit of doubt" would have worn away? Or were there too many mates in the fray at that point that she really needed to add a new one?


The thing that bothers me with basically everyone here is that they more or less bring forwards the so called "easy lynches". Obviously they all four can't be wolves and thus some of their suspicions must be honest and innocent. But I'd bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters.

The rest coming soon.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to run away from the little house with the dead rabbit until she realised where she was. The sight of the mad tea party made her realise she had run back the way she came from. She was about to turn and go back but then thought otherwise. “That evil mouse is dead, so I don’t have to be worried about him. I also never had the opportunity to speak with the other two, they seemed much nicer. Perhaps I’ll stay” she said to herself as she walked up to the table. The first thing she noticed was that they were now on the opposite side of the table as “the teapot”.

“No room! No room!” the March Hare yelled out when he saw her.

“No, but she is the one who was here earlier, we have room for her!” the Mad Hatter replied, pulling back the seat beside him for her to sit.

“No no, that’s not her at all.” the March Hare argued.

“I assure you it is. I’d know him anywhere!” the Mad Hatter replied with an odd giggle. So Alirin sat down.

“What day of the month is it?” the Hatter asked her, he was holding up his pocket watch to his ear, looking rather concerned. At this moment the March hare was pouring tea into a cup with no bottom.

“The twelfth.” Alirin responded.

“I knew it!” he exclaimed. “Two days wrong! I told you butter would do no good!” he said to the Hare.

“But it was the best butter!” the Hare responded before his spoon distracted him.

“Why is a raven like a writing desk?” the Hatter asked her, as he started dipping his pocket watch into his tea and occasionally holding it back up to his ear.

“Oh, well I’m not sure.” Alirin said after a few moments of thought. “What is the answer?”

“I haven’t the slightest idea!” he answered as he took a sip of tea.

“Well, I think you might do something better with the time, then wasting it by asking riddles that have no answers!” Alirin told him, rather put out.

“If you knew Time as well as I did,” the Hatter responded, “you wouldn’t be talking about IT, but rather HIM. I dare say you’ve never even spoken to Time!”

“And you do?” she asked, extremely curious.

“Why yes. Or, at least before last March. We got into a quarrel, right around the time that he (pointing at the Hare) went mad. It was at the great concert of the Queen of Hearts, and I had to sing. Well I was only into the second verse when she screamed out ‘He’s murdering the time! Off with his head!’”

“How dreadful!” Alirin responded, though she had become rather accustomed to violent deaths recently.

“So it was. Now he does nothing I ask, and it’s always 6 o’clock.” he replied, rather mournfully.

“The time for tea!” she concluded, now understanding why the tea table was so scattered with dishes.

“Indeed, it’s always tea time here!” he said, suddenly joyful. Just as she was starting to enjoy herself, this is when everything got terrible again. It all started when she asked a simple question.

“What is the number written on your hat?” she asked the Hatter.

“Oh, that is the price I’m selling this hat for.” he answered, looking sad again. “It’s my last one, that’s why I wear it. You see, I’m a wolf man.”

“A what?!” she asked, rather alarmed.

“A poor man.” he responded, clearing his throat. The March Hare was now pouring from a three spouted tea pot into three different cups (one of which was already full, the other with a large hole in it).

“That isn’t what you said before. You said wolf, not poor!” Alirin said, getting concerned and remembering what happened last time she was at this tea party and someone said “wolf”.

“No, no, no, I didn’t, no, no.” he responded, in the midst of giggling, crying and biting on his tea and butter flavoured pocket watch. As Alirin started to back away from the crazy Hatter there was a part of her that was slightly concerned for him. By this time he had his entire pocket watch shoved into his mouth, and he was biting and knawing and even foaming at the mouth, just like a rabid dog!

“Perhaps you should take a breather!” Alirin told him, reaching to pat him reassuringly on the back. But it was too late; he had already begun to choke on the two day late watch, and was face down in his gigantic tea cup.

The March Hare was still obliviously pouring tea into various cups when Alirin once again ran as fast as she could from the dreadful tea party.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3

Alive
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Inzil – King of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Nienna – White Queen
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Greenie – White Knight
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Night 4.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to walk down the path, and the scenery around her always alternated from garden, to forest, to rivers, and back to gardens again. After quite some time she could see someone in all white riding towards her on a horse. When he was only ten feet away she saw him fall off and land on his head, only to get right back up and on the horse as if nothing had happened.

“The lady needs an escort!” the White Knight said to her as he turned around to ride in the direction she was walking. Alirin insisted that it was not necessary for him to accompany her, but he insisted it was his duty as a knight.

Alirin noticed this odd little box on a strap slung over his shoulder, it seemed to be upside down and the lid was wide open!

“Ah, I see you’ve noticed my invention.” he said, quite pleased. “It holds clothes and sandwiches and I’ve made it so that the rain cannot get in!”

“But the things inside can get out, don’t you see that the lid is open?” she remarked kindly.

“Well, then everything must have fallen out!” he proclaimed, seeming quite frustrated. “It’s no good now!” he said as he hung it on a nearby branch.

“What is the mousetrap for?” Alirin asked him, having noticed one attached to his saddle. “I don’t think there would be any mice on a horse.”

“Not very likely, “he responded, “but if they do come I don’t have to have them running all about!”

He fell off his horse again, so Alirin quickly helped him get back up. This is when she noticed these odd contraptions around the horse’s feet.

“It’s to protect them against shark attacks.” the White Knight explained, “it’s a good idea to be prepared for everything.”

Now whenever the horse stop (which it did often) the Knight would fall off from behind. When it would start again he would fall off the front. Otherwise he managed for the most part, though he did occasionally fall of sideways. After his fifth time of falling he mentioned how he had just thought of a new way of getting over gates.

“You see when I stand by a fence my head is high enough to get over, but my feet are not. So I figure if I put my hand on top of the fence, and then stand on my head, my feet will then be high enough to make it over!” he explained. By this time he was putting his helmet back on and remounting his horse.

“I invented this helmet too, you see!” the White Knight said, “It’s very special!”

“What is special about it?” Alirin asked.

“Well, when I wear it I can see people for what they truly are! It certainly comes in handy.”

“What am I? Truly?” the girl asked.

“You already know who you are, it’s everyone else out there who is a mystery!” the Knight said right before falling off his horse one last time and tumbling down into a deep ditch.

Alirin quickly ran over and looked down, but she could not see him because it was so very deep. After one last look, and a sad glance at the rider-less horse, she continued walking down the path. What a terrible place this was.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4

Alive
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Inzil – King of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Nienna – White Queen
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 4.

[Inziladun]

Well, two wolves down, in exchange for the Seer. The bad with the good. At least though, Greenie's death came after a few Days had passed, and there may well be something worthwhile found in looking back at her activity. I saw no evidence she was the Seer, so maybe it was simply a matter of her saying something that unnerved the remnants of the pack.
And Glirdan? That was a most admirable ploy by Sally in trying to get him lynched Day 2. If that was just some fast thinking on her part, and wasn't planned out, I find it all the more amazing.

[Nerwen]

Good luck, Wilwa!

–And bad luck for us. Just when things were going well...

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)

EDIT:X'd with Zil.