WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okayy... so in general. As for Izzy-kill, I think it's most likely that she was killed because several people trusted her and nobody really suspected her much. I don't think there's much to gather from there, which probably was the point for the Wolves.

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Related to that, of course, Nienna's decisive vote could be taken as important indicator if Glirdan was innocent, but we wouldn't know until he is dead, so that is not really of much help now, the matter is too hazy to speculate on right now.

Otherwise... I think the most interesting thing is how people have reacted to this sally-Glirdan thing, as for sure Wolves would have a different opinion on it (in their head) than rest of the people, as they'd know Glirdy's role, and something interesting might leak through.

Let me once again note that it was Inzil who keeps just "coming back to me on his own" (i.e. I intend not to keep looking just at him all the time and his posts jump at me anyway). This:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, looks as if I backed the wrong horse there. Glirdan could technically still be a wolf, but I doubt it. It's not so much his words toward the end of yesterDay that make him look better (I still say his attack looked evil), but this from Sallywolf:

That looks like real panic, trying to convince Nienna to vote Glirdan instead of her. If Nienna had done so and Glirdan was a wolf, the pack would be in the same situation they are now.

That said, I fully intend to vote Mira toDay, barring some major developments.

x/d with Morsul

If Glirdan is a Wolf and Zil too, this would of course be a real possibility for a defense of a fellow packmate. But you know, it's just somehow... clumsy. But in whichever way: whether for innocent or guilty Zil. Okay, he crossposted, so he didn't know what the general mood in the village is, and most of the later posts have shown actually some suspicion of Glirdan. So if Zil is a Wolf, and he wanted to support the idea that Glirdy is innocent, he misexpected (heck, could you say that? No. Is there a word for that? Hope you know what I mean) the village, which showed generally more suspicion to Glirdan this far and now Zil might stick out with trying to think Glirdan innocent. But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But that's enough about Glirdan. I'm sure he'll be analyzed to death today anyway.

Agreed... Well, now that there actually is more of a reason to suspect him, I am probably going to review him myself, because this far I didn't have reasons to suspect him. I am most looking forward to hearing from him toDay, though, and see how he posts...

Lommy has a good point about that thing that WWs might have killed somebody from Glirdy bandwagon if he's guilty, however of course that doesn't have to be like that necessarily, but it's one quite good remark to consider apart from other things.

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

EDIT: x-ed with skip.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

Okay, now I wonder, because I actually didn't find it. Something like that happened, though, it apparently doesn't have the same effect on me anymore. (Now I will spend the rest of the Day thinking about what it was...) I wonder if it might have been his vote for sally (as that's basically the only logical option), but I can't think why. Actually now rereading his posts made me think better of him, esp. if Glirdan is innocent (WW voted sally) and he also quoted Isabell in one of his posts, which given that he posted very few posts in total would somehow "link" him to her, so not sure if the Wolves would dare to kill her if about almost the only person he ever quoted was her. (Though of course, this kind of "link" is so vague that it really isn't any big deal, but...)

Okay, but whatever... for now, I am probably going to review some folks... although I should still read a piece of article for tomorrow, I might spend some time with that and then come back to the thread...

[Brinniel]

Seeing Nienna's quotes about Sally, considering she was suspecting her from earlier in the Day and the way she went about suspecting, I'd be really surprised if she wasn't innocent...in the scenario that Glirdan is innocent.

So what to do with Glirdan...

One thing I worry is that if he is innocent, this is a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching since I suspect there may be a pretty heavy bandwagon against him toDay. But on the other hand, we can't really know his role for sure until he is lynched...knowing his role would certainly shed light on some things.

I'd love to hear Glirdan's defense, but unfortunately I don't think that'll be happening before I leave for the Day.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

The Glirdy-wagon sure was an interesting one. So were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?

Let's take a look at yesterDay's voting. Here's the thing (Sally-voters are italicized, those we need not think of are underlined and the rest are bolded to make the list more readable).

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2
Lommy -> Glirdy
(Agan actually voted for Inzil here)
Greenie -> Shasta
Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4
Shasta -> Morsul
Mira -> Winty
Lottie -> Glirdy2
Agan -> Inzil
Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6
Skip -> Glirdy3
Glirdy -> Sally7
Inzil -> Glirdy4
Izzy -> Glirdy5
Nienna -> Sally8
Sally -> Glirdy6

We can look at this list first from two perspectives; assuming that Glirdy a wolf and assuming him innocent.

If Glirdy is a wolf the reading of the list is pretty hard as the wolves could possibly hide anywhere. If Glirdy is innocent, then the Glirdy-voters sure merit a closer look.

The Glirdy voters then are Lommy, Skip and Inzil.

If Glirdy is a wolf then Lommy looks good (it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes), if Glirdy is innocent Lommy looks actually pretty bad (trying to open another lynching route with picking up an easyish lynch-candidate).

Skip's vote is harder to pin down but the same basic logic applies, even if only in relative turns. Surely if Glirdy is innocent, his vote with the vagueish to and fro with Sally would look quite evil indeed (as it could be seen as a try to build up a wagon for Glirdy, even if quite desperate one), but if Glirdy is a wolf, then it's harder to say (why to press another mate forwards at that point - well that wouldn't be totally unbelievable but actually quite smart?).

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

Some of them probably just plain thought Glirdy looked more suspicious than Sally for I do not believe these three are our three wolves left. That would be a bit too daring indeed. Although, if Glirdy turns up innocent then even that should be considered.

I'll come back with those who decided to choose differently (not voting Sally or Glirdy) & Sally-voters in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.

The advantage of listening to Lottie is that at least I can be relatively certain she's not trying to mislead me. I already took issue with the fact that she apparently trusts Mira, who I think looks fairly evil.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Speaking of grasping at straws....
When you say one makes 'great contributions', I take that to mean you approve of the things they've said. That's why I thought Glirdan was being contradictory there.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).

Incredible as it may seem, no: wolf-on-wolf was not my first thought there. Why not? Probably because what Sally did would not have occurred to me, had I been in her position.
And for the record, this is game # 13 for me.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by my inscrutable and idiosyncratic self

(it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes)

Oh my. That sentence doesn't make any sense whatsoever...

What I tried to say is this: it would be foolish for a wolf to vote for fellow B, making him the second overall candidate to get votes, when fellow A has already two votes. So there would be two wolves having votes and none other...

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Well then those who walked their own paths (more epic-style to our thread ).

Greenie -> Shasta
Agan -> Inzil
The vote-count at that point was (also when Agan actually voted):
Sally2
Glirdy1
It wouldn't be the most effective way to help Sally but as the vote was made relatively early it might have been somewhat good idea for a fellow wolf putting another "easyish" voting candidate into the list (increasing the chances that someone else will get the noose eventually), and if Glirdy is a wolf, then her choice of adding a new candidate would be obvious.

Shasta -> Morsul
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Sally was clearly taking the heat there so just to defend her Shasta's move isn't the best one to help out a fellow, but seeing that he himself had a vote as well it could be possible Shasta-wolf decided to bring forwards a new candidate - not to talk of the possibility only wolves had gathered votes at that point of the Day!

Mira -> Winty
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Morsul1
Now this is an interesting choice. One more "easy lynch" candidate thrown into the lot. There were a host of votes to come as it was relatively early so why not put all the baits in there so that someone would pass Sally? And many had suspected winty, so maybe the "benefit of doubt" would have worn away? Or were there too many mates in the fray at that point that she really needed to add a new one?


The thing that bothers me with basically everyone here is that they more or less bring forwards the so called "easy lynches". Obviously they all four can't be wolves and thus some of their suspicions must be honest and innocent. But I'd bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters.

The rest coming soon.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Sally-lynchers then...

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2

Morsul looks so darn suspicious everytime he plays but it would be quite daring for him to start voting against a mate who clearly was facing some real pressure that Day. And actually, if Glirdan is a wolf then the same applies for toDay. Could it be a done deal? Risky, but possibly paying back in the endgame?

Nerwen I think quite good of as adding the lead of a packmate at that situation would hve been both bold and possibly quite counter-productive. Or did they think Sally was a goner already during the Night?

Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4

These two votes I think talk rather good of their makers as one looks at the placing of them. They clearly made Sally the real candidate number one. If one of them were a wolf they'd surely have reasons coming for another candidates? So voting Sally at that point would have been unnecessary.

Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6

More or less the same as with Legate & winty. The difference being that there was then clearly a chance of a second candidate with Glirdy. I suspected Sally more than Glirdy, Brinn didn't mention Glirdy at all.

Glirdy -> Sally7

Self-preservation, whatever his role is.

Nienna -> Sally8

The decisive vote.


Blah... have no time to continue as I have to run to a meeting. See you later...

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Brinniel]

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.