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#1 | ||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Hi I'm here. However I have very little time so I'm going to read as much as I can...
I doubt we can make much of sally's last words (or the whole of her yesterday participation, for that matter). She probably knew she was going to die and did her best to confuse us as much as she could. Morsul looks better to me today, I can follow his logic about sally. However I don't think the fact that she tried to lynch Glirdan tells us anything about his role. There are some people I want to have a look at today, but it will have to wait until evening because I have something to attend to shortly. I'm basically speaking about Shasta, Nerwen, Glirdan and Brinn because I need to clear my thoughts about them. However I'll have to see how many of them I have time for today. Quote:
I have this gut feeling that if Inzil is a wolf, Shasta might be too. There's just something, I don't know, it was Shasta's interaction with Greenie who suspected Inzil that made me think so, but I recall feeling vaguely uneasy about Shasta earlier. I will have to look at it more closely. Lommy had a good point about Izzy's death possibly pointing to Glirdan's guilt. Quote:
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So I have to leave in a couple of minutes... I'll go through yesterday later.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#2 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#3 | |||||
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Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.
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Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#4 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I'm back... but I don't plan to be around for very long, as I have to wake up very early tomorrow. I would actually prefer to leave in about an hour or something, so basically that means I should decide whom to vote here toDay and then go.
Before I do it, general remarks. I have become a bit worried about Aganzir now, just looking at her vote yesterDay. If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf, as it was likely other people might vote Inzil (like I could do that, for example) and also it would not be threatening any of the Wolves (Sally and Glirdan, in this scenario). Something similar might go for Greenie's vote for Shasta, in such a case. Once again, this is just with the scenario assuming Glirdan is a Wolf. (Well, I really think knowing his role would clarify many things.) However, I am remarking that with relation to Aganzir also in relation to the fact that she has been just very, well, sneaky up to now (there's probably not a better word). She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot", to the center of things where it all boils, while at the same time keeping us aware that she is around and posting and looking reasonable. That said, I do not have any particular reason to suspect her - yet. But I just thought to remark it here as a current thought that's on my mind and maybe, in future Days, it will become worth something. (Or not.) Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else. I'll return to the voting list once again. Basically from somewhere around the point I and WW have voted, it must have been clear for the Wolves that their sally is running up for the lynch. So now depending on the individual Wolves' nature, they'd likely try to either save her (a dangerous attempt which might expose them), or throw their votes away (and thus throwing her away as well). Greenie, Shasta and Mira (and Aganzir, however I have already mentioned her above and technically her vote came earlier, but most of the rules apply - well, see above) belong to this cathegory and it seems fairly likely that one Wolf at least would be among them. If Glirdan is a Wolf, then even more likely. On the other hand, if Glirdan is a Wolf, then I'd expect some Wolf/ves in the Sally bandwaggon. Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not. One of the things is also my suspicion for Inzil, as his vote was placed in such a way that if Glirdan is a Wolf, it would have been quite good, almost safe place for a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions. On the other hand, maybe it will be more interesting to try to repeat the feat of King Solomon (which seemed to pay off yesterDay) and vote somebody else. I will think for a bit - and then vote and go to sleep. So, around and watching and thinking... EDIT: x-ed with Greenie
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#5 |
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Leaf-clad Lady
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I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#6 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Greenie, it really doesn't apply in the BD world.
It means "Too long, didn't read" and it's used basically if you want to people to skip to your conclusion. I just used it because I thought it was funny.
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Shasta ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#7 |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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When looking at the two scenarios though, Glirdan is innocent, and Glirdan is guilty, you must bare in mind that him being innocent is much likelier than not. Out of the remaining 16 villagers there are 3 wolves. Given that the accusations against Glirdan are not built on any solid evidence, they are perhaps even incidental, the probability that he is an innocent villager (or gifted) is a lot higher than him being a wolf (what, like 5 times?) There's no going around that.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#8 | |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I am rethinking, let me see now the list of people for the last time and then I probably vote and be gone. I have to sleep.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#9 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,
++Inziladun who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment. Good night, people, and vote well. EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#10 |
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Leaf-clad Lady
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Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for
++ Nogrod Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me. I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes! EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#11 | |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I'm probably going to be voting Greenie today, but I should be around for a while.
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Shasta ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#12 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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I've been thinking about this post by Sally. It was posted early on day two when she had already received 2 votes, knew she was in trouble, but still must have figured she could escape with so many people left to vote.
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But the suspects she list (and remember, at this point she would be hoping that one of these suspects is picked up and that this would save her hide) is interesting though I think. I somehow doubt that she would list more than one, possibly two, fellow wolves. She doesn't want to set up a pack-mate at this point, that I think is clear from her bland list, she hopes to set up an innocent in her place. Which is why I think that there's only one, at most two, wolves in this list: Morsul Legate Glirdan Winty Shasta Who then. Well... Shasta, possibly. Don't know...
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#13 |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Votes so far (correct me if I'm wrong):
Morsul -> Glirdan Brinn -> Glirdan Greenie -> Nogrod Legate -> Inzil Hm. Will need to vote soon too. Hm. Needs to think about this.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#14 | |||||
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Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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x/d with all since 509
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#15 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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This seems like a rather sudden bandwagon on Inziladun (or I'm just dense and didn't see it coming, which is quite possible currently.
) I think my next task is to go look at everyone who voted Inzil to see why.
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Shasta ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#16 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very clean, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky. I've little liking for the possible Glirdan bandwagon, for reasons I've explained, and for him being away. It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard. Not really into Inzil for reasons also expressed. Have my doubts about Agan but will not vote on her tonight. Therefore Shasta I think... 10 min to think.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#17 | |||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Hi sorry I'm here only now, it took me about two hours longer to get home than I expected... I doubt I'll have time for everything I wanted to do but ah here we go, back to yesterday.
I find it very unlikely Mira and Zil are wolves together. I doubt wolves would vote each other so early the way Zil voted Mira (mostly based on my suspicions), and now they're apparently suspecting each other. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if one was a wolf though. In theory, the fact that winty got confused about sally's gender suggests he's innocent. But then, the nickname sally is rather feminine... Quote:
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I haven't had and will most likely not have time to go through Glirdan and his actions properly, but I don't think his arguments look wolfish. However he hasn't made me feel very strongly that he's innocent, either, and I agree with people who say his death would offer us insights. Hmm I wonder if a Shastawolf had told Lottie to take off her wolf-coloured glasses... It's possible if either (or both) Glirdan or Greenie is a wolf, I suppose (just to divert her attention somewhere else, even at the risk she started suspecting another wolf). I don't know. Okay Shasta's later post (#340) looks innocentish. Grrr we've reached day 3 which is always a turning point for me: either I get a grip of the game or start having second thoughts about everyone. This time it's the latter. A wolf team of winty and Mira doesn't seem plausible, either. She voted for him yesterday, saying she thinks there might be wolfish coaching going on (or then he's just a newbie). It just doesn't sound likely that she would've done that if both were wolves. Okay after Glirdy's post #403 I'm certainly not going to vote for him. I think he looks quite innocent there, plus he brings forward Mira and winty, both of whom I have been wondering about. If he's a wolf, I find it unlikely they are, or the other way round. And Inzil seems to totally disagree with me about that post. Quote:
And yup if you are fellows, I'm certain you would've instructed him the previous night. However I don't want to underestimate you, either. Why not do it twice if the second time might make you look more innocent? CONCLUSION (based mostly on things posted after I disappeared yesterday) Innocent -Lottie -Lommy. Haven't changed my mind about her. -Legate; if he's a wolf, it would benefit him more, if not to encourage, at least to not discourage Lottie's suspicion of me. Plus his posting is reasonable. -Nienna; see Legate. -Greenie; I think she looks innocentish and I agree with her a lot. Guilty -Zil/Mira -winty/Mira No definite opinion about anyone else. I'm most likely going to vote for Inzil because I'm more interested in his role than Glirdy's. And will do it in, dunno, half an hour I hope.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-12-2010 at 02:26 PM. Reason: xed since Greenie's #500 |
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#18 |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Inzil is coming into the discussion I see. Interesting, but I have one problem with the idea. Why would a wolfish Inzil stick out his neck in what you in retrospect would call a desperate attempt to save what he knows to be a pack-mate? It seems too clumsy almost.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#19 | |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#20 |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Hmm I wonder why the wolves didn't kill Lottie last night. Did they want to play it safe in case the ranger protected her, did they think she could help them to lynch innocents, or did they consider Izzy a more imminent threat? I have no time to think about this now and I know Izzy's death has been discussed to an extent but I just wanted to bring it up.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-12-2010 at 02:54 PM. Reason: xed with skippy |
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#21 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#22 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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(~~~) *grin appearing*
I'll just end up my previous task as I had to run off from the computer the last time... So Nienna gave the decisive vote to Sally. Now if Glirdan is innocent that looks quite good (which doeasn't mean Nienna couldn't have done it as a wolf) but if Glirdy is a wolf it tells us nothing. So. I'm not going to put those thoughts into any systematic order as there are too many questionmarks. But in the light of them I do find it interesting that Skip comes so powerfully to defend Glirdan. For it surely is true that if Glirdan is innocent, then the Glirdy voters would hate to see him dead as that would reveal his innocence and point the light straight towards them as those who might have tried to save Sally. The problem here of course would be that if a wolf defends an innocent should we lynch the innocent to get to the bottom of the matter - or try the one stepping up for the other as they both could be innocents - or if an innocent defends a wolf... drat, this is complicated. And just becasue of that, fun. ![]() (~~~) *grin vanishing*
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#23 | ||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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![]() I don't quite get Green's Nog suspicion. Skippy it's usually no use analysing what a wolf has posted when she already knows she's in trouble. They can split their fellows between different categories in any way whatsoever and will do their best to confuse us and make us waste time speculating on what they meant.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-12-2010 at 02:45 PM. Reason: xed since Morsul |
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#24 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Quote:
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#25 | |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#26 |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I don't think I'm going to change my mind so I might as well vote.
++Inziladun Simply because I suspect him the most so far, and I want to know his role in order to know which way my suspicions should proceed. Skippy we never know until we know his role, and that's what I'm aiming at. ![]() I'll go get something to eat and may still check in before going to sleep (or before going to find murderers that currently interest me more than ours; I'm talking about when Mikael Blomkvist och Lisbeth Salander löser gĺtan Harriet, for those who know. ) but if not, good night bunnies.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-12-2010 at 03:05 PM. Reason: xed with Noggyns |
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