WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[skip spence]

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

[Eönwë]

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I don't think the Hunter should reveal at all unless in danger of being lynched, as then we'd have a known innocent that the wolves hopefully won't attack out of fear (if this does happen, then hopefully it will be later on, when the hunter's more likely to choose correctly).

Anyway, I'm going to reread yesterDay before I do anything else.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am back and around... to my surprise and partially delight, it seems you people haven't been overactive toDay, although I must say, even though it really delights me that I don't have million pages to catch up, still perhaps I would have preferred people posting more than less...

But not saying anything until I read what is that that's been discussed...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

It's happened before.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

This is true, and I find him rather creepy. However–

Originally Posted by skip spence

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

I don't like this, skip– it looks as if you're just latching on to this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

I do like your analysis of Legate, though. I'm torn.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

You had better not be a wolf, Steve. "It seems we must have some psychic wolves" *pats self on back*"

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Will be off for a short bit but should be back soonish.

Curious to her from Greenie why she suspects me too...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits?

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

None of this, of course, means that Zil couldn't be a wolf helpfully explaining the reasons for the kill. They do that sometimes.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.

That he could be a wolf being "helpful" is, as I said, quite possible– however, it is, as I also said, usual to speculate.

EDIT:X'd since skip.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by skip, bolding mine

why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.



edit: fixed quote. Wow. My formatting is terrible toDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.

We-ell... I think it has been pretty generally accepted by now– though only because of that speculation and analysis which Skip himself finds questionable.

Thought: could his irritation at this be that of a wolf who knows perfectly well why they killed Glirdan, thank you very much, and so can't understand why we're even bothering to talk about it? It wouldn't be the first time wolves have failed to take into account the gap between what they know and what the villagers do.

That said, I'm not all that inclined to trust Zil, either.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[Eönwë]

Definitely not liking Lottie.

Just reread Day 1.

On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

edit: x-ed with page.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.

Oh come on!

Hm.

List of people I'd consider voting:
Lottie - Not liking her from Day One, and not liking her vote on me. I was one of the people to get a vote yesterDay and her vote on me toDay seems like an opportunistic way of starting another bandwagon to lynch an innocent. Would hate to see her lynched if she turns out innocent though, which is certainly a possibility.
Legate - Not a likely fellow of Lottie. I'm torn about him, but leaning towards guilty.
Inziladun - As I said, he seems very very careful. And the wolves have had little reason to take chances so far, it seems.

Would also consider Green or Steve considering what's come up lately, but we'll see about that.

[Eönwë]

Well, a few thoughts:

Positive:

Nerwen- Willing to accept her as innocent for now.

Wilwa- Seems genuine, and I seem to agree with quite a lot she has to say.

Legate- Looks much better in my eyes after his last post. He raises some interesting points and . On the other hand, he could be a wolf giving away some of last Night's thoughts in order to make himself look good, though this seems less likely to me.

Nogrod- He's finally gone back to normal-Nogrod-mode, so I feel better about him now.

Not sure:

Ozzy- Well, he seems generally alright, but I can't get a read on him at all.

Worried about:

Lottie- I found her very suspicious yesterDay, but now I'm not so sure. I need to reread her posts to see why I found her so evil.

Skip- Worries me. Sometimes he seems so innocent, while at others he seems almost certainly evil.

Inzil- Slippery, and more than usual. He makes sense, but he just worries me.

Boro- Not acting how I remember innocent-Boro. And more importantly, how is he third on the post count when nothing he's said has really stood out.


edit: x-ed since Wilwa's long post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

First one thing. As for Glirdy's death, if you take the facts - only the fact we have are enough! - it is only logical: I don't see why people did not see it earlier, I mean, you had all Day and nobody mentioned what seems obvious to me: if Nerwen is innocent, which now after PW turned not to be guilty seems clear, then the WWs know it. Okay? And they know the Ranger protected her. Okay? So they just look who said what about Nerwen the Day before. And I remember how the beginning of the Day was, because I was there: Boro came, and started talking about the options, and saying Pw is the most likely. And then Glirdy came and was pressing really strongly the Nerwen-case. Now, what would one think...

Otherwise, comments about yesterDay and the little bit of toDay, too:

I am once again starting to doubt Boro. Largely because of his speculation about the kill the Day before. Even though later he said he didn't really advocate it, he at least mentioned Pitch being dreamed of as the most probable scenario. And if nothing else, that would lead Glirdy-Ranger to state the opposite, since Glirdy would know whom he was protecting: if I am right about my conclusions, innocent Nerwen (whom I now find most likely to be his protectee and thus innocent).

And the analysis Boro made yesterDay in #156 seemed just very much interpretative with the addendum that "perhaps wilwa is the Cobbler", which could be even Borowolf himself checking here whether it wasn't supposed to be a Cobbler signal (the phrasing):

Originally Posted by Boromir88

One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Note please he starts to speak in third person and then he switches into talking to her directly, as if "Yes, Wilwa? Is it so? Are you a cobbler?") Later, he wrote that he was "waiting for response"... so was he, indeed?

Now wilwa's reply to Boro didn't seem very cobblerish, but her vote was a bit weird (or the explanation of it, in the light of the current events). She really was basically like "let's start the bandwaggon!" I would like to hear more from her, like, what was going through your mind at that moment, wilwa? Can you somehow elaborate or re-explain it?

Boro's vote toDay and sometimes his sort of "addendum" to the existing suspicions of other players seem eyebrow-raising, but especially with the vote I am not sure if it is a Wolf-y thing. Unless he is following something by this random voting, if it's his style now or something.

I still don't quite trust Lottie based on yesterDay's later responses to me (post 161). It seems to me more like it's just covering the tracks.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything. What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine. I merely stated, and I believe you can see clearly what I was thinking from my posts: that I think pitch is innocent and thought so based on his behavior (from earlier and still at that time) and that the only reason why I could doubt him is the possibility that he was dreamt of. Imagine the situation: you find somebody innocent, and then you hear he's possibly the Seer's dream. What do you do? I did the thing I did: I said I am not dismissing the chance, as based on the evidence of Shasta's posts it was equally possible for me that it was Nerwen or him, but my personal opinion was that definitely I am not voting him, and I thought the dream was Nerwen - largely because I found it more likely that she is innocent than that Pw is wolf! Is that clear now?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwens and skip

[Nogrod]

Finally got the home-PC open...

Just a short one here. I'll eat and then come back for the rest of the Day...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...

So you knew it in the middle of D2 that Pitch was innocent... you knew that?

Originally Posted by Leg

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything.

The choice of the word here was probably bad. I mean that while more and more people started discussing how important it would be to have a stance on the Shasta - Pitch issue you seemed to not even notice it - and whenm you did, you felt being quite roundabout with it - like not thinking it important - or just trying not to comment on it.

But on another note, after reading your post I'm caught thinking that there is something wrong in this whole episode (including the way I have been thinking about it). I need to think of all this again...

What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A short and basic list of what I feel about people right now:

NOT CONCERNED ABOUT

Nerwen - I think she is the dreamed innocent. We will most likely see after toNight, anyway!

Greenie - I have really no reading about her at all, but nothing suspicious at least.

Nog - I tend to think he is an innocent totally out of his mind. Because he sounds like a genuine Nogrod who catches on totally wrong things (like his suspicion of me) and gets a sort of tunnel vision and does not let go...

UNSURE ABOUT

Ozban - some of his posts seem like genuinely innocent newbie thinking (like the one thing Nog corrected about Eönwë seeming innocent because of his vote), but at times I am just worried whether he is not making one huuuuge bluff. I'd just need to sense his true motives a bit better.

Skip - some of his posts have genuine feel to them, some less...

Wilwa - I don't know, she generally has innocent-looking posts and then she has some more guilty-looking stuff and I don't know...

Steve - there is still rather little from him. He does not seem worrying to me generally, this far, but I want to see more from him... he's similar to Greenie, simply she's been just around a bit longer, and I can get a better read of her (which is still nothing much, but at least makes me feel a bit like something about her, whereas about him, I can't say anything)

Inzil - bleagh. You know what, he is a bit unreadable. If I was to say names of three Wolves right now, then after Boro and Lottie he would be my third, but it's really nothing specific now.

SUSPICIOUS ABOUT

Boro - a bit. See my post above.
Lottie - see also above.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you knew it in the middle of D2 that Pitch was innocent... you knew that?

Nogrod! Seriously! One more silly comment from you in this game and I am thinking you are a Cobbler yourself... or actually wait! Now that would finally make sense! Honestly, you are sometimes incredibly off in this game. Did you read what I was talking about up there? You have even the quote right above it! Nothing about Pitch, but your words about Glirdy and Skip's votes being in the suspicious place (you seemed to pull it as an incredibly discovery that they, being in the middle, were the most suspicious, whereas I said that in the middle of Day 2). That's nothing to say about what I think now about them (since Glirdy's been obviously innocent). But anyway...

EDIT: x-ed with wilwa and Nerwen.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

wilwa's explanation seems fair enough to me, sort of calms my feeling about her now. And btw a note to my list, I just realised I really wrote very little there... planned to write more into the mid-section especially, but like I said, it's really "short" overview... more like on making it clear for myself. (And it can serve you for easy orientation also when you read it if I am dead later and you are reviewing my posts, so that you can see what I thought of whom.)

EDIT: x-ed with skippy.

[A Little Green]

As usual in my analyses, I have not a) mentioned all his posts (eg. clarifications on stuff said before or otherwise stuff I have nothing to comment on) or b) full quotes of all the posts I quote. So, in short, I've gathered here what I found noteworthy in going through Skip's posts.

Day 1

56: Long IC and the following:

Right then. Time to hunt some wolves.

I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..

57 (in full):

Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious.

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable?

Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses (not proper English probably but since I like the sound of that I had to write it..) on Day 1, but Skip's vagueness is fishy - he's very careful not to say he suspects the people he mentions but rather leaves it at "this might be a bit odd, or might not be..."

82 (in full):

hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...

94 (in full):

You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta

Easy, though innocents did that too. Don't like the phrasing.

Day 2

124 (in full):

Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!

The first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it. The latter part is what interests me more. He "leaves things to discuss" while he's away. His demand of explanation from Lottie is reasonable, though could also be read as a wolf sniffing an easy lynch-candidate. Especially when coupled with the second "thing to discuss", Pitchie as Shasta's possible dream. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but what worries me is the same I pointed out in his Day 1 post of impressions: he is careful not to say he himself suspects somebody, but rather encourages others to. I don't like it. Also, this post looks a bit like the wolves have plotted at Night that getting either Lottie or Pitch lynched, and Skip starts the work. I'm not convinced a Skippywolf would be so obvious though.

172: Answering a question about why he didn't see Shasta's Pitch-suspicion as a possible sign of Seerism if he considered Lottie's Shasta-suspicion as such.

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

192 (in full):

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.


Day 3

228 (in full; underlining mine):

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

A few things I dislike in this post. First off, the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that. The rest is, once again, more noteworthy. I'm especially concerned about the underlined part. It doesn't only look like latching onto Nog supporting the same suspicion he had yesterDay in a very fishy manner, but also I'm wondering how come Legate is only beginning to look bad - considering that Skip found him bad enough yesterDay to vote over someone he himself had pointed out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf.

He then proceeds to analyse Legate (lost the post numbers, too lazy to check), this being his conclusion:

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried" leaves a nice open door both ways, depending on what others think of Legate.

236 (in full):

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

This strikes me as slightly odd. To me it looks more or less like he's describing the usual Inzil, who's always careful and slippery regardless of role, and again, he's raising slight doubts without openly suspecting. Talking about treading carefully...

237 (in full):

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

I don't like this either, the way he offhandedly discards the validity of suspecting him based on his Shasta-vote because everyone did it anyway, and then goes off to turn the suspicion instead to Lottie and the other first voters (for voting Shasta).


And that's it. The early parts are the things that made me vote Skip yesterDay, only organised. I have to say he hasn't exactly improved since then. Quite the contrary, after looking through his posts he looks even fishier than before. The major things I have against him are a) his easy yet crucially placed bandwagon-vote for Shasta and the easy discarding of any possible suspiciousness therein; b) his pointing out Pitch being a possible dreamed wolf, yet still voting Legate for lynch with rather weaker reasons; and c) his general manner of encouraging others to suspect instead of openly suspecting himself.


EDIT: wow, x'ed since Nerwen's 245. This took longer than I thought..

[skip spence]

Well, Greenie, your points against me are terribly subjective and vague on the whole. It's sounds like you'd already made up your mind about the outcome of your analysis before even getting started. I mean, these are just a few examples of your "arguments":

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A
56: Long IC and the following: I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..
...
Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses...

...don't like the phrasing.

...the first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it.

...Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

...the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that.

...Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried"

This seems worth replying to though:

192 (in full): I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.

I, much like all others it seems (bar the Wolves) though that Shasta could've dreamed Pitch, that this was a likely scenario. There are however three wolves out there still and as I also found Legate suspicious I felt another alternative could be wise to bring forwards, especially since the catastrophe of the Day 1 bandwagon. And the vote wasn't a throwaway, there was still enough people left to vote to change the outcome... In retrospect it would've been nice to have seen a closer voting too, wouldn't you say?

Edit: xed with Legate and Greenie whose question I've already answered.

[skip spence]

So, what's the vote-tally?

Okay, lazy I know;

Lottie -> skip
Boro -> Eonwe

That's it? :O

[Nerwen]

Hmmn. At the moment the problem for me is that everyone I suspect also suspects each other, whch makes it sort of hard to untangle...

I think I will vote
++Skip

Though bear in mind that Lottie has already voted him. and she's quite the dubious character herself. Let's not have everyone pile on one person again, shall we?

I regret that I haven't been able to be around more on what I assume will be my last Day– I mean the wolves would be crazy not to come after me now– but that's how things fell out.

Good luck!

EDIT:X'd with Skip

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A few notes still before the voting fray begins...

I have been looking at the list of votes people cast in both Days (thanks, Steve!!) and also noticed one thing - it's a question I am placing in front of the villagers, because I don't know an answer to it, myself:

Day 1, as we all know, was a basically all-over bandwaggon for Shasta. Only a few have voted otherwise, and one of them was Boro, who voted Nerwen. If I am right - as I assume that Nerwen is innocent, because of Seer's dream being probably her and also Glirdy talking about her the way he did - then Nerwen was in fact supposed to die that Night. So, what does that say about Boro? Would he be a Wolf? Imagining his thinking now if he was one: "We want to attack Nerwen toNight. I voted Nerwen today." What is between these two sentences? A worried "but"? Or "because"? Or "who cares"? Like, how would a Borowolf think? And related to this, would he do this, then? Because if Boro wouldn't do something like that (a thing I would think default for most Wolves, but maybe they had better arguments for otherwise), then it would make it more likely that he's innocent...
(I hope you are able to follow what I have in mind in this one.)

[Nerwen]

Tally:
Lottie --> Skip
Boro --> Eönwë
Nerwen --> Skip 2

So I just put you in the lead, Skip. Really not sure about you, though.

[Ozban]

+ + Legate

Can't help myself, but to find him treacherous. I have repeated my reasons several times. So I'll refrain from doing it again.

[Nogrod]

Okay, back in the game with belly full...

Originally Posted by Leg

you are sometimes incredibly off in this game. Did you read what I was talking about up there? You have even the quote right above it! Nothing about Pitch, but your words about Glirdy and Skip's votes being in the suspicious place

I was only looking at the thing you quoted from my post - which basically had the knowledge of Glirdyranger and Pitchocent; as that was the point of my post: that two of the most suspicious three were innocents!

Okay, 'nuff of that. I need to try and re-organise my thoughts.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was only looking at the thing you quoted from my post - which basically had the knowledge of Glirdyranger and Pitchocent; as that was the point of my post: that two of the most suspicious three were innocents!

Okay, in that case I have probably misread it too. Although it seemed to me that your point in the post was very largely about these three being in the suspicious place as in contrary to some people in the 7th or whatever place, something you've been kind of dementing by pointing out that it was these three, and not the 7th votes, who were suspicious... but okay, whatever, let's forget it...

[skip spence]

Ouch Nerwen, did not expect that!

Now maybe it's time after all to try Lottie. Actually, I'd be fine with Steve too - and yes, saving myslef is part of my reasoning. He's a submarine more or less but has done nothing to make me feel good about him

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Skip

Well, Greenie, your points against me are terribly subjective and vague on the whole. It's sounds like you'd already made up your mind about the outcome of your analysis before even getting started. I mean, these are just a few examples of your "arguments":

The lines you quoted are mostly the exact parts in my analysis that are not arguments, and taken out of context.

I, much like all others it seems (bar the Wolves) though that Shasta could've dreamed Pitch, that this was a likely scenario. There are however three wolves out there still and as I also found Legate suspicious I felt another alternative could be wise to bring forwards, especially since the catastrophe of the Day 1 bandwagon. And the vote wasn't a throwaway, there was still enough people left to vote to change the outcome... In retrospect it would've been nice to have seen a closer voting too, wouldn't you say?

This does not make sense. Why is it especially wise to bring up a new alternative if one of the already existing candidates is, quoting you, "likely" dreamed by the Seer as wolf - especially as the lynch was not quite certain yet? If you thought both Pitch and Legate were suspicious, you wouldn't worry about Pitch getting lynched.


EDIT: x-ed since Legate 180 - no sorry, 266