WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

Just a minute... (they always say smoking is bad for you, but once again a cigarette gave me a question)

After the Night-kill is announced people wish to find out who were after the deed and why they picked the one they did. Some go for the previous Day's votes, some go for hints, seer-hints, what have you, some go for general patterns, some for what the killed said, some for what others said of the killed etc...

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Okay, I'm not sure I can express what I want to say... but it just feels odd you only come up with those quotes... and kind of do nothing else to constructively help bringing any ideas to the fore. Blah. Language fails me here.


Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Why look at Glirdan? Do you really need an answer to that?
And what I found out? That he probably would have looked like the Ranger and that's why he was killed.

As for anything else he said on Day 2, (which amounted to three posts, only two of substance), he did say that he thought the wolves in the Shasta voters would have been the later ones, and he singled out yours and Greenie's. Is that the 'summary' you had in mind?
Also, he questioned Legate some, and said he wanted to "take a closer look at [Legate]". However, since it was known at that point that Glirdan could not be the Seer, I see little chance the wolves would have killed him for that, if Legate was one of them.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

Well, I'm not sure what you're seeing. My first post I wasn't positive about Pitch, I talked about Nerwen maybe being the dream, but all my posts after that I stressed that Pitch should be the lynch, very strongly. I guess you must really just be looking at the very start of the day (when I only had the one post).

And I agree that the way that lynch went it will be much harder to look at people based on votes. Even if not everyone agreed on his suspiciousness, it was still pretty clear he'd end up being the lynch. It was like no one really wanted to, since the only reason was because of the possibility of him being Shasta's dream (he wasn't overly suspicious on his own) but everyone kind of knew it was still a good idea to do it (even Pitch realised that).

So a wolf could easily vote him and say 'oh well, he seemed to be a seer dream, of course we had to give it a try', while a wolf could have also voted for someone else and say 'Pitch wasn't suspicious enough on his own, and the seer hints were too obvious'. So a wolf could have gone either way and their votes wouldn't look that bad.

These were the votes yesterDay, just to see:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate
Pitch -> Lottie (2)
Boro -> Pitch (5)
Lottie -> Pitch (6)
Nog -> Lottie (3)
Eonwe -> Lottie (4)

So all but Greenie and Skip voted for either Pitch or Lottie.

Now those who didn't vote for Pitch. If we hadn't of lynched him we could have wasted a whole other day discussing the possibility of him being the Seer dream. Did some people perhaps want us to kill someone else so that we'd waste another Day talking about Pitch? I'd see that as being something the wolves would like. Get us to kill a different innocent, and than know that we'd go after InnocentPitch toDay. That's two Days safe for them. That may be stretching a bit, but it's not an impossible scenario.

x'ed with Inzil

[Loslote]

Right, well, I was hoping to see a bit more before I got back...as it happens, I generally find myself agreeing with Vanilwuffin and Nog, trusting Zil, and flip-flopping about Boro. I won't have any chance at all to get on in the morning, so I'll have to vote insanely early toDay.

So far, I'm not going to vote for:
Zil
Vanilwuffin
Nerwen
Nog

I probably won't vote for:
Boro, who's been making sense and posting a lot, and hasn't struck me as at all wolvish.
Ozzy, who, for a newbie, is doing extraordinarly well and has given me nothing suspicious to worry about.
Greenie, actually - after looking back over her posts, I'm feeling a lot better about her.

Which leaves:
Steve
Legate
Skip

None of those three am I particularly suspicious of. I dunno...maybe Skip more so than the other three, but still, I don't have much on him.

Oh, and just a note - Nog could easily fit in the 'probably' section better than the 'definitely' section in terms of trust, but since he's making a lot of sense, he got bumped up a section.

[Loslote]

Really? Nothing? Right, well, I have to vote now, so after reading through the thread, I'm going to:

++Skip

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

[Ozban]

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

[skip spence]

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 1:

His first post includes this paragraph which in retrospect made my hair stand up, there is something very unnerving about it.

Originally Posted by Legate

It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...

A possible parallel is how Glirdan was caught as the ranger for talking about the ranger in third person... Very clever wolves indeed

He then went on to start this cobbler talk that took up much of Day One as far as discussions went.

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

Originally Posted by Legate

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Later Leggy responds to Greenie who voices concerns that this talk concerning cobblers in general is a distraction.

Originally Posted by Legate

You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

Yes, but what can people's reaction to general ideas on how to deal with a cobbler, that we have yet no idea who he or she is, do to help us? I fail to see any use in that discussion, it strikes me as a distraction only.

Legate than post a few longish but pretty hollow posts. No strong opinions on anybody or anything, and seems content to continue to discuss general game-play and such...

Eventually he votes Lottie rather apologetically:

Originally Posted by Legate

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...
...
++Lottie

Also of interest is how Ozban votes Legate

Originally Posted by Ozzy

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

Day 2 to come...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 2.

Starts by saying how bad it is that the Seer was lynched and how good it is that the ranger made a save.

Also singles out three people whom he suspects based on the events of day 1, namely Me, Glirdy and Nogrod.

I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Leggy then has a short exchange with Ozzy questioning his vote and motivations for it.

With post #127 he makes a list, with rather lengthy explanations which basically boils down to him suspecting everyone a little bit without making any strong commitments. He fails to see anything particularly bad about Pitch despite Shasta's trail that most everyone else picked up on. He also maintains that Shasta was not that suspicious.

Here he does acknowledge that Shasta might well have dreamed Pitch though, interestingly...

Originally Posted by Legate

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

Then he makes a 360 and seemingly concludes that nothing can be learned from Shasta's lynch (though the phrasing here is a bit muddy, not sure if I follow what you mean, Legate)

There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...

His case agaist Lottie is quite convincing though. Does raise a few good points against her:

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

[Nogrod]

I have some time in my hands right now and will go checking the voting from yesterDay.

Just two points before I do that (and you can thus see where I'm coming from reading the votes).

I do think that for a wolf the most persuasive option yesterDay was voting Pitchie with the crowd. It gathers the least attention and is easy to explain the next Day. So I'd bet that at least two of our three wolves voted for Pitch - or would be very surprised if they went the other way. Voting someone else would be just too reckless attention-grabbing.

Although I must say that wilwa has a good point there in saying that the wolves (and the cobbler) might have wanted to see someone else lynched yesterDay. If that would have happened we'd have Pitchie along and there'd be the same insecurities on him. But had they dared to try that so openly, grabbing all the attention? I mean they could win one Day but in the worst situation expose themselves, basically cancelling any advance they'd gained by not lynching Pitchie?

Okay. Going in to read back.