WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

I'm still reading yesterDay's posting but while doing that I ran to my own post discussing the oddity of D1 Shasta-wagon.

So Lottie gave Shasta the very first vote in the game. Inzil gave him the second personal vote (making it 2-1-1). Technically I'd say those are not yet bandwagoning - which doesn't mean they are innocents.

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I
If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

[A Little Green]

Phew, back here at last. Again, my apologies for yesterDay - toDay I should be here more or less until DL.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

Wilwa's scenario nicely sums up what I was thinking about. There is something off in the exchange between Nog and Inzil. I'll check that more thoroughly if I have time - I want to compose a list of some kind and read Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro and two Skips

[A Little Green]

Looking at who we have here...

TRUST:
Nerwen - Well it seems pretty likely that she was Glirdan's Night 2 protection, possibly also Shasta's dream - but be the latter as it may it's unlikely she's a wolf. Will leave her alone for the time being.

MORE INNOCENT THAN NOT:
Legate - Looks like his innocent self to me.
Lottie - I'm still inclined to find her more innocent than not, though I'm not that sure anymore.
Ozban - Seems nicely independent-minded - a very rare trait in a new wolf, but then again I wouldn't put it past him. No arguments against him, nor a bad feeling, though.

(A freakish in-between category for those between "leaning innocent" and "headache"):
wilwa - Feels innocentish, though I couldn't say what I base that on. Might deserve a closer look as well actually, just because I realised I never really even considered the possibility that she's a wolf..

HEADACHE:
Boro - Scares me. First hunch: innocent. Second hunch: wolf. I'd prefer a closer look at him, we'll see if I have time.
Eönwë - Quite frankly I have no idea. I'm expecting him to turn up and explain a bit about his yesterDay's vote...
Inzil - Hmm. He is as impossible to read as always. Was the first to point out Glirdan's obvious hinting to having protected Nerwen. That could go both ways.
Nogrod - Agh. Confuses me to no end. Has been less aggressive than usual I think, and his exchange with Zil toDay was weird (don't know which of the two was the one who was off, though).

MORE EVIL THAN NOT:
skip - The one I'm currently feeling worst about, I'll make a separate post about him in a minute.

I don't like the size of my headache-category, and especially the number of people I have no idea about. Gah.


EDIT: x-ed with Eonwe, Ozzy and Leg

[Nogrod]

It was much larger job I thought but I've finally read through yesterDay taking notes of people's attitudes towards the Shasta - Pitchie dream scenario.

But reading it is just crazy as we can have wolves willing to press for Pitchie's lynch (none of the wolves is lynched and with a nice wagon the have a place to hide) and wolves willing to caustion us from Pitchie-lynch (as not to look too over-eager or to look good toDay). Also innocents could be either willing to drive for Pitchie lynch just to be sure, or caution against it as it is unbelievable (making Shasta a reckless seer) and thus possibly a lynch wasted.


Here are my notes then, in the order of their votes coming in - and a short comment of mine in italics.

Legate seems to downplay Pitch-issue basically with not mentioning it in the beginning and then later going for “could be this, could be that”, belives in the end Nerwen is the innocent dream. Is not "100% sure" Pitchie is the wolf (sic!). Says he will vote for either Glirdy or Lottie – of Pitch he says only he feels quite good! Votes Lottie (1)

It really looks strange. He looks a lot like a cobbler to me - not sure if he's a wolf though (it might depend a lot on what Lottie is as I don't think they are on the same side, unless innocents both - which I strongly suspect being the case).

Nerwen seems to understand why Shasta could have been dreaming of Pitch (nervous, first time seer). Has hard times between the two interpretations (well the other includes herself as an innocent so I hats off if she is innocent!). Says it is a dilemma: suspicious Lottie or not suspicious but possibly dreamt of Pitch. Votes Pitch (1)

It would be really unfortunate if Shasta has not dreamt of Nerwen and we tke her innocence for granted because of his posts... but she looks pretty innocent and reasonable so I'd say she's not on the top of my suspicions.

Greenie comes in in haste, says skip is the most suspicious and “wouldn’t mind” Pitchie gone either. Votes Skip (1)

Had she not been in a hurry I'd say this would be really suspicious, but looking at it as a vote made in a hurry I'd think it not that suspicious.

Ozban wavers between interpretations (the possibility vs. Pitchie looking good & Nerwen more likely dream). Votes Pitche (2) as it would be too stupid to let him get away.

Otherwise quite good, but I do wonder how come he earlier stressed the fact that a) Nerwen was the more likely dream to him, and b) Pitchie looked so good - and still ended up with voting Pitchie. Some risen eyebrows here.

wilwa says an innocent Nerwen looks more likely. After a pause comes and asks is someone really thinking we should gamble on Pitchie: the possibility of a dreamt wolf is enough to lynch him. Cut the crap and check Pitch. Votes Pitch (3)

Interesting change of mood there from early Day to late one - but is logical and considerate on everything else... Hard to say, but my guts say more innocent than not.

Inzil only comments on the possibilities. Is careful of possibilities, thinks Pitchwolf is a “strong possibility”. Wonders about Greenie’s vote: if Pitch turns out a wolf we should look at Greenie. There’s only one way of being sure with Pitch… Votes Pitchie (4)

Well he's careful indeed - and if you were looking for a careful wolf Zil might be our guy?

Skip seems to be on the map, but puts it in the tone of “maybe it was Pitchie?” Wants to see alternatives. Votes Legate (1)

Interesting choice... It really does stand out - would a wolf want to do that only not to be seen as someone with innocent blood in his hands? If Lottie is a wolf it might make sense, but I'm not that confident if voting Legate would make sense for a wolf even then...

Pitchie understandably votes for Lottie (2)

Dead and innocent.

Boro was the first to spell out the Shasta – Pitchie –case. Next (after opposite ideas had been entertained he withdraws from it somewhat). Later says he’s leaning towards Pitch. Ponders about the reasonableness of yet another bandwagon of 7… Rejects the idea of competition and votes Pitchie (5)

Came up with the scenario quite boldly but then clearly tried to withdraw himself from it's conclusions (I was not making a Pitchie lynch call). Also goes to and fro with the choices in the end but decides finally to go for Pitchie. Hard to say. Maybe a last minute "joining the crowd" move from a wolf. Or a "hands up" (well, let's check it then) from an innocent? In general he looks quite good but...

Lottie says if Pitch is the dreamt one, a wolf a packmate would press for Nerwen-dream interpretation. Considers Pitchie as a lynchee on the same level with various others. Stresses the only reason not to trust Pitchie is a possible dream. Would like to see some other options than Pitchie. Suspects Skip but votes Pitchie (6)

Among other things she did yesterDay this looks quite bad to me. Like she tried to look calm and gathered, not driving for the Pitch-lynch. Even goes on to suspect Skip in her last post - and then votes Pitchie to blend in to the crowd?

Nog goes to and fro with Pitch-scenario: it is tempting but it goes against what Shasta would be as the seer... Doesn't like the idea of yet another 7-vote wagon and finally thinks Lottie a better chance. Votes Lottie (3)

Not knowing of the last two votes if I may add.

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)

As hasty, odd and maddening as he was on D1. I'd really like to hear his promised explanation to his vote - and why does he use his precious few minutes discussing things from D1 in the end of D2 - especially as they seem to have little bearing with what we have at stake there, in the end of D2?


Jesus! But I did it!

I'm in for a break now, but will be back later.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)

Really? And actually, on my other post, there was actually only actually one thing that was not completely relevant to the end of Day 2.


As for why I voted Lottie, well, other than Shasta's accusations (which didn't seem Seer-hintish to me anyway), I didn't see any reason to suspect Pitch, and thought that it was far more likely that Shasta had dreamed Nerwen. And more importantly, I thought that if we killed Pitch and found out he was innocent (as was the case), the wolves would go after Nerwen, who was basically a proven innocent, and I was worried because I thought that she was the Ranger.

For one thing, I thought that maybe that was why Shasta tried to draw so little attention to his calling Nerwen innocent (by covering it with all the Pitchwife stuff). It's one thing to try not to make it too obvious that someone is an innocent, but if they're a gifted then you need even more care, and that's what I thought was going on. And her first post seemed like it could be a Ranger hint too. And even though I admit that that maybe wasn't solid proof of her being a Ranger, I didn't want to risk. It turned out that the Ranger ended up dead anyway, so I suppose I failed.

And also, Lottie seemed (and still does seem) more than a little suspicious.


edit: x-ed since the Nog post I quoted and fixed one sentence.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Edit: X'ed from 235 onwards.