WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Well then we will have to agree to disagree, because I can't see why the wolves wouldn't go for the seer unless there's a special reason not to. It doesn't make the game any easier though, because going for a potential seer might simply mean going for someone who has a gifted vibe (as might be in this case, I agree G55 seemed a little too involved yesterDay - that's why I thought she was a wolf) or who defends an innocent in a seerish way.

Of course, this game is a little different, as the lions have a reason to go for possible bears as well. I guess it depends on the wolves whether they consider the seer or the bear a bigger threat for themselves. Which, now that I think of it, leads me to think the wolves might try to kill either people who might be seers that dreamed of them (ie seers that are immediately dangerous for them) or bears. It's entirely possible G55 was killed for looking like a bear instead of a seer, or that she was killed because Volo or Mac is a wolf. But I'll take some of my words back - it wouldn't make much sense for the wolves to go for a possible seer that just said someone innocent looks innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen's skip recap

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:
Quote:

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

This caught my eye. I know Rikae is a crafty player, could it be that wolf!Rikae decided to do a little experiment and blow a little suspicion in the direction of innocent Skip who had been acting a bit erratically (yet characteristically) and see if it catches fire? Also I don't know what to make of her and Inzil arguing which one of them was the first one to voice suspicion against an innocent that was eventually lynched - wouldn't wolves rather hope people forget their involvement in something like that?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).

I never said people who were voting Skip were particularly suspicious. What I said was that a bandwagon of the sort that got him lynched is usually against an innocent. There's a difference there. Sudden Day1 bandwagons against people with a controversial playing style are a frequent phenomenon and in my experience both innocents and wolves take part in them. Wolves might smell an easy lynch and jump in, or knowing the person is innocent, stay back in order to look better. To be honest, I doubt we're going to glean much information from the lynch, because there might as well been wolves involved as not.

The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time?

Yes- he had five votes before anyone else got two.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also I don't know what to make of her and Inzil arguing which one of them was the first one to voice suspicion against an innocent that was eventually lynched - wouldn't wolves rather hope people forget their involvement in something like that?

Zil voted fourth, in the middle/end of the bandwagon, and is trying to argue that he wasn't just jumping on a bandwagon based on the "fact" that, even though he voted late, he'd been arguing for the lynch the whole time.

That being said, he wasn't the first, and even if he had been, I don't know that being the first to express suspicion means that he wasn't jumping on a bandwagon when he voted. After all, he may have suspected skip already, but that bandwagon was unmistakably a bandwagon, and he didn't have to follow through on his early suspicion.

++Zil

And if Zil does turn out to be a lion, I think we should turn a close eye to Mac. Their suspicion of each other this game has been very lackluster - they mention every so often that they're suspicious, but they don't do anything about it, which looks a lot like packmates "suspecting" each other to me.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

This caught my eye. I know Rikae is a crafty player, could it be that wolf!Rikae decided to do a little experiment and blow a little suspicion in the direction of innocent Skip who had been acting a bit erratically (yet characteristically) and see if it catches fire?

That's exactly what I was doing. If I was sure, I would have just voted for him myself. It's always a good idea to watch the reaction to a suspicion before acting on it. If people seem too eager to agree, something is probably amiss.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Copper - seems reasonable and perceptive in an innocent way, no alarm bells.
Nogrod - when he thinks aloud on the thread, I can hear little wheels furiously turning which makes me think he writes what he genuinely thinks instead of trying to hide something.
Gil - kind of under the radar, but he seems to have developed a playing style less chaotic than how it was years ago, plus he makes good points. There's nothing particularly worrisome about him atm.

No idea
Eönwë - still under my radar.
Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.
Boro - Boro flying under the radar?! What's this? As far as I remember, he hasn't really done anything note-worthy, good or bad, this far, which in itself could be worrisome. Not enough grounds for suspicion though.
Lottie - I keep reading her posts like "I disagree, but she seems ok". Normally she seems more suspicious to me, though, which is weird.
Greenie - I would like to say that she seems her sharp innocent self but that would be ignoring the fact that she's almost as much under my radar as Eönwë aka the King-under-the-Radar.
Wyth - can't judge because I haven't seen him play before, fair enough this far.
Rikae - I think she's not half as laid-back as a wolf, but then again, it's a long time she last played so I'm not sure how valid that point is, also really baffled about what to make of her relationship with dead Skippy.
Mac - like Rikae, he's been away for a time and changed playing style meanwhile. He's so chaotic he seems like a cobbler, but since that's not an option, I think ordo and lover are the most likely options. It's still possible he's a very bold wolf too, can't really read this new Mac at all.
Sally - might actually usurp Eönwë as the ruler of the radarworld.

Suspiciousish
Kitanna - I can't pinpoint it, but something in her posting seems wrong to me, as does the fact that people have been defending her left and right even though she's hardly been under any suspicion toDay.
Encai - I'm getting the feeling that the wolves are probably flying under the radar and enjoying the show, and Encai would fit that part. There's something non-committal about her in this game that I don't remember from way back and it makes me a little wary.
Nerwen - is playing very similarly as last game when she was a wolf. Not that it's very different from her innocent playing style - but I think she analyses a bit more as a wolf and banters a bit more as an innocent.
Eomer - I feel bad for putting him here because I always suspect him regardless of his role, but he's been pointing an awful lot of fingers without contributing that much himself. I'm wary of him.
Volo - I haven't picked a particularly suspicious vibe from him, but others have pointed out his voting yesterDay was odd, plus IF the wolves though G55 was the seer, it makes him look the worst.

I'm still hoping for something to happen that would make the situation clearer, because no one really stands out to me as super wolvish while almost everyone looks at least a bit suspicious. I would prefer to vote someone from my last category but I also reserve the right to change my opinion.


edit: xed with everyone

[Nerwen]

Since I have to vote now-

++Mac

I have already stated a few points against him, although admittedly some suggest Lover rather than Lion.

However though the Skip waggon was clearly not *needed* to save anyone, it may still have been that the Lions got it going because one of their number was under suspicion. It may also be that the Mac waggon happened because the Lions felt it was now safe to vote a comrade. Note that these points could apply to Zil too, however I also just want to bring in another candidate.

Good luck!