WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Rikae]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me. Of course, the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion. Or did she say something that made her one dream somehow apparent? She certainly focused on the bear a lot, seemed to be trying to decide whether it should be killed early or not, but I don't see anything that seems to clearly be hinting at the identity of her dream. Could have been bear or lover, in this scenario.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

Here's her list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

If anything there is a bear hint, I'd say the comment on Mac (he's nervous about a cobbler because he doesn't want to kill a bear/lover). Mac's response does seem a little, I don't know, fabricated? Kind of a "back off from this or I'll call you suspicious!"?

Originally Posted by Mac

Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.

On the other hand I kind of doubt he'd go out on a limb like that to counter the very suggestion of lynching the bear/lover if he was one. It seems like a big risk to take when we're only talking hypothetically anyway.

This exchange would also be pretty bold:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Wilwa
Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass
Originally Posted by Macalaure
What's wrong with bears?

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

On another note, I wanted to answer Eönwë's post from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Edit: X'd with... everyone.

[Volo]

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

[Macalaure]

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four. She raises some points about other people, but in the end states that they're all neutral. Then in #110 she votes known ordo Skip, without mentioning any second choices. If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though.

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

On to Galadriel, in a little while.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

But if you think it's serious business, maybe the bear did indeed...

[Encaitare]

The Seer, already? Yeesh.

I think there are two possibilities here. Either the Lovers didn't like how much Wilwa was focusing the conversation on them, or they thought they were going after a lion. I'm leaning toward the second option, because the first one seems kind of obvious. And I joked before that love makes you stupid, but going after someone who is drawing attention to you, even without making accusations, is not the subtlest of strategies.

In short, I doubt they picked up anything Seer-ish from her comments. The fact that the Bear killed the Seer was likely a happy accident for them -- and an unhappy one for us.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

Mac makes a good point here. Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent, and quietly placing one of their names in a list is a good way to imply their innocence without being too obvious.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Zil: His tone is a little formal in the way it gets sometimes when he's evil.
Lommy: Has been logical and helpful, and seems genuine enough about it.
Wilwa: Has been focusing a lot of the attention on the hunter and bear, but since that is the only topic of conversation that's really stuck so far, I can't exactly fault her for that. Yes, the hunter and the bear aren't our priority - but it's better to have people talking and leaving tracks behind than sitting quietly, all agreeing that the wolves are our priorities. Wilwa looks pretty good in my eyes.
Galadriel: Her tone strikes me as a teeny bit too cautious, too thought-out. I'll keep an eye on her, but I wouldn't vote her yet.
WythDryden: Welcome to Werewolf!
Rikae: Has been very reasonable and logical. Her tone seems pretty calm, not too cautious, which either means she's not a wolf or that none of her packmates have attracted attention yet.
Mac: Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far
Gil: Nothing he's said has really caught my eye as being suspicious.
skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

Pretty non-commital with the exception of Skip who she voted for. Making it the first vote for him.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The thing is, even if people think we should be "going after" the Bear more than the Lions, or vice versa, saying that is one thing, doing it is another. How exactly are we supposed to go after one over the other? Especially this early in the game, when for the most part we are shooting blind with regards to both. The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

I bolded a line I think could possibly have made the lovers nervous.

Originally Posted by Sally

Three pages? Three pages? THREE PAGES!

I hate you all.

++Lottie

I think Sally was pretty quiet due to an important work visitor so she hadn't said much up to this point. I can't find much fault for work related absences/ random vote.

Originally Posted by Boro

I daresay an ex-Lannister imp knows how to stab people in the dark. I'm confused how he's come up with those opinions on Gil. That is, I disagree with them, but it's an early random vote that looks innocent. Nothing more, nothing less, and nothing schemed about it.

Questions skip vote for Gil, but doesn't really say much more on the subject. Later in the post he votes Zil because...?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

I think within these five is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Originally Posted by Zil[/quote

Right now I'm thinking of voting skip, for the business about the Hunter revealing (and the Seer focusing their protection there) and his seemingly easy vote on Gil.

This is the only thing about Zil's post that really stood out. Mostly it was agreeing, disagreeing, but not saying much.

Originally Posted by Mac

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

I know you pointed out your suspicions of me in an earlier post, but why Boro and Zil exactly? I don't recall them being mentioned.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

Earlier in this post he claims lions could easily hide in discussions of game-mechanics. But lions can easily hide behind posts like this too.

[Nogrod]

Just a few principles I think should be thought about to begin with...

Wolves need the seer and they seldom are in a position they can easily let that thought pass their considerations (it is possible, sure, but quite improbable). So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer.

I'd search anything that could look seerish from G55 on D1.

The lovers would probably go first for the wolves - but if they had an idea that the seer was up to one of them, they'd probably hold that as a more immediate threat.
I see some people have already picked up from D1 that Wilwa seemed very interested about the bear so it could be a possibility...

I'd search anything on Wilwa for both things that could point her being a lion or a seer.

Okay. Second half of the football match to go, but I'll be back then for a moment...


EDIT: X'd with Mac

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Volo

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Edit: X'd Mac, Nog, Kit

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Well, I guess that's as good a theory as any. After all, there must have been something to catch the Bear's attention.

x/d with Rikae

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

Lommy was the first to remark on it, but G55 was a bit more talkative on the subject.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

What I meant was, I would as someone other than Mac. Assuming her concern about the hunter's role made her hunterish, and she didn't suspect any of them, killing her would have been a good bet.

[Eönwë]

I think I missed this rather key quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

[Eönwë]

Day 2

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

{Back on the "you're suspicious" track}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

{Still continuing the same thing}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

[Eönwë]

And then Mac goes into full suspicion mode:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

You don't say.

Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

I don't think this makes sense.


Defend yourself, sir!

Not particularly sure what he means by this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

EDIT: I realize that Inzil doesn't go together with "the lions were probably comfortable". I'll look up "consistent" in the dictionary some time.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I read the results of the Day afterward. That's a pretty small thing for you to focus upon.

As for the "defense" of myself, I've pretty much said all I can to explain my vote for skip.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It really looks odd the way this Day started with "Mac could be the Bear/a Lion", and yet now the focus has been moved onto me.

I'm at the point now that I think knowing Mac's role could give some useful info.

++Mac

Originally Posted by Macalaure

++Inziladun

For reasons stated above.

(And a tiiiny bit of self-preservation.)

So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).

[Eönwë]

On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...

Anyway, back to rereading.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I just meant in such a scenario a lion who's going to die anyway could buy an extra day, because only the other lions and real Targaryen know their identity. Or anyone else (and in such a case, the wolves aren't exactly going to step in and confirm, though I can imagine they would try to get the false one killed to add credibility in the "see, I was right!" kind of way). And with no seer, this is even more possible. I mean, there's a very slim chance of such a thing, but that's the sort of scenario I was imagining.