WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, after what happened with morm I think I'll join in on that clothes-eating party mentioned yesterday.

*proceeds to eat his coat, scarf, shoes, and haalf of his whole wardrobe*

OK, one more time, I never said that mormegil was innocent. The one comment I made about being unsure also contained a statement that I would go analyze his posts and report my findings. I did the analysis because I wanted to make sure of what he was before deciding on a vote. Later, I posted my analysis showing him to be wolfish. I hope that makes sense.

However, I'm out of leads right now. Maybe some of morm's suspicions about Lommy were correct, maybe not, but I really am out of ideas right now.

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

[Aganzir]

To me it seems that Kath had dreamt of Lommy and morm and found both innocent.

Originally Posted by Kath

The fact that Lommy and morm had the same thing going yesterDay has me thinking they're both innocent, as the back and forth posts felt much as Rikae and Nerwen's did.

Because this looks such a fabricated reason to claim them both innocent.

About the third dream I have no idea. However, I doubt Kath would've specificly said she's not sure (like she said about Menel) if she was speaking of a dreamt wolf.

At the moment I think Brinn's much more probably a wolf than Menel.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And Aganzir could be lynched just for being so nasty.

Now I don't think that's a proper reason.

Off to sleep now.

[Farael]

First of all

*Grabs ketchup, eats hat*

Sally what were you thinking? Even though you were speaking sense yesterDay, your previous behaviour made it sound as if you were a wolf afraid that they'd call your bluff and trying to back down... It's a shame that you were an ordo, but I stand by my vote... you really did seem wolfish.

And while we are questioning other people's thoughts [B}The Might[/B] what were you thinking?

If we were at an earlier stage of the game, I'd say we have to lynch him to clear the air... I mean, that double-lynch went against what most of the village wanted, at the least it was a selfish move. Right now, we can't afford to lose another ordo, and I still get the feeling he's just a confused ordo.

I wouldn't blame him, the wolves have been playing us like a fiddle.

Now on to the accusations.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Finally, I am not a werewolf, but I don't think there's anything I can do now to shake off suspicion, so if you really want to lynch me, go right ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything, since I am not a werewolf, though.

That right there reeks of wolfishness. I don't think there have been many strong accusations levelled at Menel yet, and even though they are sure to come, I think he started with this defence a bit too fast.

Originally Posted by Volo

Morm should have told us his role yesterDay. A lynched Ranger is one of the worst possible scenarios (only the lynching the Seer being worse).
I wouldn't have voted a person who declared himself the Ranger:
1. The person will probably be killed next Night (but that's better than lynching him).
2. The isn't killed during the Night, because the Wolves want to bluff and make us think that the person isn't the Ranger or the person wants to bluff and isn't the Ranger. I don't see any harm done this way. We don't lynch "the Ranger" unless another Ranger comes to claim the role or the real Ranger dies (or is Dreamed of). If a compeditor appeared we'd know that one of them is a Wolf - then we have to decide.

Well, first of all this train of thought is a waste of time... a) Morm's dead and b) he was most likely not around when the last votes were coming in. Keep in mind that he probably did not want to say his role unless it was completely necessary to.

That's another thing that concerns me about The Might... he came in right at the last minute and BAM! double-lynch. No good explanations other than "I feel I need to do this". The more I think of it, the more suspicious it seems, and yet it's amost "too easy".

And here's an interesting thought... with five votes to go, Morm was up by 2 (4-2) votes over Sally

Then:

Loomy votes for Sally, in agreement with Kuru who thought it was best to kill Sally than Morm

Brinniel votes for Menel. I don't think it was a good idea, as there was a clear risk of a double lynch... she should've voted either for Morm and try to put him out of reach, or [B}Sally[/B] and help those who wanted to get rid of her isntead. However, at that point there were still enough votes left to lynch Menel instead of the other two, so I don't think it was a wolfish move.


Aganzir votes for Sally and remarks it's a tie, asking others to vote.

Kuruharan votes for Sally

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Looking at these last votes, I'd say that Loomy and Kuru seem honest... they were acting to lynch Sally instead of [B]Morm[/B}. Brinniel seems innocent too, but with an ill-fated vote for a third party. However, it wasn't a "throw away" vote, Menel had a chance of getting lynched. Immediately after that vote, Aganzir votes for Sally, setting up the double-lynch scenario. Kuru breaks the tie but Might ties it up again.

So I'd say that from there Might is possibly a wolf, Aganzir may be too, and trying to act to protect Menel by forcing the remaning voters to ignore Menel as an option or have a triple lynch.

I will probably be around on and off, but it's not guaranteed so I will cast my vote now to make sure I get it in.

While Menel looks worse by the minute, I just find Might's actions impossible to ignore, specially the fact that he started apologising as soon as he voted. He never once considered the possibility that he might nail down two wolves, which was likely since Sally and Morm had been under heavy fire for quite a while. That makes me think he knew that double lynch would be disastrous, and the only way he could've known is by being a wolf

++The Might

As a parting-shot, I'd like to hear some more from Fea

[Meneltarmacil]

I look more suspicious to you lately, Volo? Don't forget that you were right behind me when it came to suspecting mormegil.

[Brinniel]

Well, so far I have yet to eat clothes because for once I was right. Urgh...I'm still so angry over the events over yesterDay. Not only was morm innocent, but he was the ranger! And now we've lost the seer too...

I've been kicking myself over my vote yesterDay...I thought there were less people left to vote and for some reason I hoped that with a vote for Menel, people would less likely to want to risk a double-lynch in the chance it could turn into a triple-lynch. I don't know why I thought that...I was stupid and running late to class. But I also realise even if I did vote for one of the two lynchees, someone still could've turned it into a double lynch. So perhaps it wouldn't have made a difference. *sigh*

Moral of the Story: Double-lynches always turn into disaster. What did I tell you?

The Might is looking awfully bad I must say particularly with his vote.

If you want proof that I am not a wolf, then I shall vote for whoever is considered to be a wolf by most.

That doesn't really help much; it's just an excuse for a possible wolf to hide among a large group. But say, would you vote for yourself again if most consider you the wolf, Might?

While I'm still pretty upset with Might causing this double-lynch, I still can't be sure he's a wolf. Could just as easily be a poor misguided soul. And if he is, I'm sure the wolves are taking advantage of it.

I still won't change my mind since Day 2. Menel and Volo still look furriest to me. And the fact that morm agreed with me and so did Kath on Menel makes me feel even better about my suspicions.

I think Aganzir could possibly be our third wolf. Remember she caused a 3-3 tie in the votes before Kuru broke it.

I admit I haven't read everyone's posts toDay thoroughly, but I have to run to dinner before the cafe closes. There's still a lot I want to say, so I'll be back later.

[Volo]

Volo suddenly goes very defencive... of Might.

Originally Posted by Farael

The Mgiht seals their fate with a double-lynch. He also starts apologising right away... that right there is making me lean towards Might being a wolf... if you believe that a double-lynch is a good idea (and you clearly do, since you caused it) why apologise profusely from the get-go? after all, should you be right, you could very well be the hero!

Innocents appologise just as often as the Wolves do, if not even more often.
I thought about what the Wolves win by causing a double-lynch like that and putting one of their own into such a position. They couldn't know morm was the Ranger, so I think that the deal would not be a good one for the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Might

Anyways, looking at those quotes I think I might be onto something. It's funny how Might was viewed as so suspicious on Day 1 and after that, everyone seemed to forget about him (except for our dear seer). I must say Might has made many mistakes in this game (voting for himself, his safe vote for Green, causing a double-lynching, his seemingly heavy reliance on other people's posts). So far a lot of us overlooked it saying, "Oh, he's probably just a confused innocent and his mistakes are newbieish behaviour." I admit I've done it myself. But it's just as likely he's a newbie wolf making several mistakes despite the advice of his fellow mates.

Now it looks like Sally's actions, and since I was so wrong with those, I wouldn't want to lynch another Innocent newbie for the same reasons.
The part about fellow mates giving advice seems to be a key point. Might's style of play didn't change a little bit from yesterDay to toDay, and I'm sure that if there was discussion between him and fellow Wolves, then he'd change his style and inevitably play "better".


Now I think that Kath Dreamed of Innocent Lommy and morm, as Aganzir mentioned in #449.
And Wolf Menel, like I mentioned in post #450.


I find one thing Mac said very disturbing:

Originally Posted by Mac, underlined by me

Volo, on the other hand, seems to be more serious with his suspicions against Lily. He didn't mention her on day one and then pursued her on day two. He gives her the almost deciding 4th vote. If a wolf tried to actively kill Lily, then Volo fits the description.

At first I thought that Brinn said that comment - and I'd have regarded it a reason to lynch her outright. Now in Mac's case I can't find an explanation to this being suspicious as Mac hasn't had Wolves as his main suspects (if Might isn't one). But to say something like that makes me feel that the Wolves discussed about at least one of them attacking the fellow Wolves strongly - if Mac is a Wolf, and he could be a flying-over-the-radar Wolf (which is wierd as it's Mac we're talking about). Do you think this is too far-fetched?


I have another question, about our wandering Dwarf friend Kuru. Anybody who's played with him before: Is he always so undecided? He seems like being aware of all the stuff happening here, but there is barely a post in which he's sure of what he's talking. I mean he talks a lot and gives his opinion about most things going around, but he nearly always puts a "but...", "on the other hand...", "looks too easy..." after his point and dissolves it by saying the very opposite. One can't be sure whom he suspects, and one can't even see what he thinks about people. Mostly he follows other people's trails and sweeps them around.


I'm late for a meeting, again. :/