Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

Yup, that's true. "Collateral damage", indeed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Well, personally I don't think it probable, though it's just my own opinion. You can find the quotes I posted up there, he spoke about Sally only in two posts of his. It's true he did not mention her before Day 2, but on the other hand, he does not seem much certain to me. If anything, I could imagine him dreaming of her on Night 3 - which would be a logical conclusion, and theoretically, if Sally is a Wolf, this might have been a reason, or played a role in, him being killed that Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Well, he said he would have voted for her on Day 1. And I don't think there were many reservations. He was maybe more active on Day 2, but that he was overall, I think (also given by Rikae herself, as he kept responding to her).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

Yes, maybe you are right that he would have changed his opinion had he found him innocent. On the other hand, what if he did not just for the reason that he would not profile himself as Seer, with sudden change of opinions? Silence might have been sufficient.

Well, I am probably going to leave now and go to sleep - I felt surprisingly fresh and I did not even realise what the time is; and suddenly it fell on me.

edit: x-ed with Rikae twice

[Rikae]

Here Legate goes again, narrowing the field. I was suspicious yesterday, with his singular focus on Mac and I, that he intended to lynch one yesterday and the other toDay, and the choice of kill last Night certainly fits that profile. Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalaure was the only logical lynch yesterDay, he words everything as if there were no question, toDay, who Menel dreamt of and when.
It's funny how Nerwen said yesterDay that she needed "a lot more" to go on before she'd consider lynching Legate - the fact is, he is not the sort to slip up in any obvious way. The sneaky, subtle manipulation of perspectives is his style of evil, and it's all over him here.

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ... I'm going to have a closer look at these thrree. Sally does make sense as Menel's night 2 dream, considering his day 2 conspiracy theory, and Nogrod has me fairly convinced he was dreamt of on day one (even though it works in his favor.) I'll be back with more, but maybe not right away -- I've got quite a lot to do this evening in RL.

EDIT: x'd with Nogrod and fixed a typo

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ...

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

[Farael]

The Modly Disclaimer
There has been a bit of a misunderstanding between Roa and I. I asked her to check half hour after the deadline to see if I had posted, and if not start/end the day herself and then she told me to let her know if I knew I'd be skipping a deadline. I assumed that was in addition to her checking, so that she could have a bit of warning and the day would start when scheduled.

What happened to me this morning was that I was bed-ridden from eight to ten due to severe back pain (and I mean "severe" as in "if I got up and tried to walk, I'd get dizzy") and then I had to rush to school. I thought by then Roa would've checked the thread and my day was rather busy up until now, so I really had no time to check the thread.

There are two alternatives as far as what we can do with this day. I would be able to end it 24 hours after it started today (1 30 PM my time tomorrow) but we cannot keep that as a deadline, as I'll sure won't be anywhere near a computer during my trip at 1 PM. If the wolves agree, we can have the day last for 24 hours and the following night last only until the regular deadline. To make it up for them, the wolves would be able to pm for the first three hours of the folowing day. I think that is a fair deal, and it doesnt give them the advantage of being able to communicate during voting time.

Of course, the wolves should PM me their thoughts, and any ordos who object should do the same.

Doctor says I should be fine by tomorrow and I feel a lot better already, there will hopefully be no more major problems with the deadlines.

[McCaber]

Tentative thoughts include a Rikae/Sally/Nerwen trio.

And Rikae is right. No one so far has done a real analysis of Mac. I shall return with thoughts from my point of view, but perhaps more than one would be useful.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick Summary de Sally. Sorry to be so brief, but I need to toddle off to church or I'll be late. These are just iniitial thoughts, so don't be surprised if I actually fully read the posts and change my mind on a couple things. But at least it'll give you all something to go on while I'm away.

Menel's Dream guess for Night one: Rikae. Result? Wolf. He cranks up the suspicion notch on her quite a bit, and doesn't back off her no matter what.

Menel's Dream guess for Night two: Shasta???? Result? Innocent. Big question mark on this one, but I'll give a better guess later. But he seems to disregard any possibility of a Shastawolf after this Night.

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie. No worries, I'll try to explain later as promised. Happy discussion while I'm away.

P.S. I'm sorry you haven't been feeling well, Farael. Don't worry about the game, we understand that sometimes RL just plain gets in the way. No big deal. Make sure to feel better though, or we'll have your hide.

[Rikae]

Ok, I'm really starting to think I'm on to something with Sally. I originally pretty much ignored her because I actually try to work against the knee-jerk impulse to lynch weird, hard to understand people, as they usually turn out innocent. But Menel's behavior yesterday fits with the possibility of her wolvishness, and now... look at this:

Originally Posted by Sally, yesterDay

Nerwen, Legate, Cabbie: I'm leaning innocent, if only because I can't get a read off them. I'll know more about Cabbie once he posts more stuff, and Legate and Nerwen seem confused by everything that's going on, so I'm inclined to think them innocent just based on their naivete.

Originally Posted by Me, today

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now

Originally Posted by Gwath, today

I am beginning to lean this way myself

Originally Posted by Sally, today

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie.

Hmm. I can just see Sally saying “they're on to us... backpedal! Backpedal!”

A lesser point, but also, what is this?

Originally Posted by Sally

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

It's hard to explain, but this just makes me uneasy. Why is it necessary to explain why he might have dreamt of her, and that she “wouldn't blame him”? It just reads as somehow over-the-top to me – pre-emptive, as if she's thinking “well, I don't want people thinking he dreamt of me earlier... but claiming he dreamt of me at all means admitting I'm suspicious... better mention it myself, first.”

EDIT: Fixing messed-up paragraph spacing.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Menel the seer? The only sense I can make of that is that he must have put his hopes in throwing the wolves off his track by doing nothing but accusing an ordo, so he could have as many dreams as possible before revealing. Considering that there was no Ranger, that makes sense - but apparently the wolves thought killing him was a good opportunity to frame me.

Well, hey, anything is possible. Does anyone else think it's likely?

Originally Posted by Rikae

[sarcasm]Oh, my! How could we have possibly lynched an innocent Macalaure?

Well, my dear, try– because you defended him so fiercely that everyone started to think there was something between you.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, this is a watertight argument -- we should focus solely on the Macalaure-voters(Legate, Greenie and Nerwen) today. Sure, there are 9 people here, but as Nerwen says "we can only lynch one at a time"!
[/sarcasm]

Once again, you (wilfully? wolfily?) twist my words. I never said we should focus solely on the Aganzir voters. No-one did, as far as I can remember. And personally, I found you increasingly suspicious yesterday, not because you voted Agan, but because you were so determined that nobody should discuss the voting.

And actually, I agree we should look at the Mac voters (yes, Rikae, including me), and at last night's voting in general. There are three wolves, after all.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, I do find the Macalaure voters wolfish, not because they lynched an ordo, but because they created suspicion out of thin air. I analyzed it yesterday, just go back and look -- the reasons behind lynching Macalaure were utter... mist.

I disagree. I think he looked innocent to you because– well, you knew he was innocent (just as you said, but for different reasons). I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

Edit: X'd with Rikae.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalure was the only logical lynch yesterDay

I can't resist saying this... I do agree with you Rikae. I was having a good night's cigarette on the balcony and thought whether I should post once more to say that Legate's agreeable - yet on the crucial points a slightly disagreeing - style makes me a bit nervous about him.

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Also toDay that strategy is worthwhile. If Rikae makes a case on a fellow Legate and is lynched then Legate looks good. And if for some miraculous reason Rikae is not lynched but Legate is, then Rikae looks better. And as we can't afford too many mislynches anymore then any confusion is playing to the wolves' cause.

Originally Posted by Rikae

With you? When you suspected both of us?

But I also said it quite clearly that I was not too happy with lynching any one of you three and that I would like to see new candidates...

Originally Posted by me at -56 minutes

To me it depends on the choises we have toDay. But I'd love to see new ideas - or to get them myself.

Then I made a few points about Gwath and Sally and ended the post:

Originally Posted by me at -30 minutes

Oh my... so little time left. Ideas anyone?

Originally Posted by me at -21 minutes

Speak your minds people. We don't need any last minute frenzies.

And after f.ex. agreeing with you Rikae I said:

Originally Posted by me at -5 minutes

After we see who will in the end turn out and actually vote we'll be much more wiser as to who were hiding at the last moments.

But the fact is I'm not very happy with any of the candidates right now. Of those three I'd pick Mac though.

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Good night now...

AUCH!

Originally Posted by Gwath

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

Oh my... Please reconsider Gwath. You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Hey, at least I'm being listened to - and if you lynch Legate toMorrow, I've accomplished something.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Of course not. But you could concievably have voted for either of us, or so I thought. Saying you want to see other candidates when you don't have any other suspects yourself, well, doesn't sound that serious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

Why does this look familiar?