Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[satansaloser2005]

Quick Summary de Sally. Sorry to be so brief, but I need to toddle off to church or I'll be late. These are just iniitial thoughts, so don't be surprised if I actually fully read the posts and change my mind on a couple things. But at least it'll give you all something to go on while I'm away.

Menel's Dream guess for Night one: Rikae. Result? Wolf. He cranks up the suspicion notch on her quite a bit, and doesn't back off her no matter what.

Menel's Dream guess for Night two: Shasta???? Result? Innocent. Big question mark on this one, but I'll give a better guess later. But he seems to disregard any possibility of a Shastawolf after this Night.

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie. No worries, I'll try to explain later as promised. Happy discussion while I'm away.

P.S. I'm sorry you haven't been feeling well, Farael. Don't worry about the game, we understand that sometimes RL just plain gets in the way. No big deal. Make sure to feel better though, or we'll have your hide.

[Rikae]

Ok, I'm really starting to think I'm on to something with Sally. I originally pretty much ignored her because I actually try to work against the knee-jerk impulse to lynch weird, hard to understand people, as they usually turn out innocent. But Menel's behavior yesterday fits with the possibility of her wolvishness, and now... look at this:

Originally Posted by Sally, yesterDay

Nerwen, Legate, Cabbie: I'm leaning innocent, if only because I can't get a read off them. I'll know more about Cabbie once he posts more stuff, and Legate and Nerwen seem confused by everything that's going on, so I'm inclined to think them innocent just based on their naivete.

Originally Posted by Me, today

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now

Originally Posted by Gwath, today

I am beginning to lean this way myself

Originally Posted by Sally, today

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie.

Hmm. I can just see Sally saying “they're on to us... backpedal! Backpedal!”

A lesser point, but also, what is this?

Originally Posted by Sally

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

It's hard to explain, but this just makes me uneasy. Why is it necessary to explain why he might have dreamt of her, and that she “wouldn't blame him”? It just reads as somehow over-the-top to me – pre-emptive, as if she's thinking “well, I don't want people thinking he dreamt of me earlier... but claiming he dreamt of me at all means admitting I'm suspicious... better mention it myself, first.”

EDIT: Fixing messed-up paragraph spacing.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Menel the seer? The only sense I can make of that is that he must have put his hopes in throwing the wolves off his track by doing nothing but accusing an ordo, so he could have as many dreams as possible before revealing. Considering that there was no Ranger, that makes sense - but apparently the wolves thought killing him was a good opportunity to frame me.

Well, hey, anything is possible. Does anyone else think it's likely?

Originally Posted by Rikae

[sarcasm]Oh, my! How could we have possibly lynched an innocent Macalaure?

Well, my dear, try– because you defended him so fiercely that everyone started to think there was something between you.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes, this is a watertight argument -- we should focus solely on the Macalaure-voters(Legate, Greenie and Nerwen) today. Sure, there are 9 people here, but as Nerwen says "we can only lynch one at a time"!
[/sarcasm]

Once again, you (wilfully? wolfily?) twist my words. I never said we should focus solely on the Aganzir voters. No-one did, as far as I can remember. And personally, I found you increasingly suspicious yesterday, not because you voted Agan, but because you were so determined that nobody should discuss the voting.

And actually, I agree we should look at the Mac voters (yes, Rikae, including me), and at last night's voting in general. There are three wolves, after all.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, I do find the Macalaure voters wolfish, not because they lynched an ordo, but because they created suspicion out of thin air. I analyzed it yesterday, just go back and look -- the reasons behind lynching Macalaure were utter... mist.

I disagree. I think he looked innocent to you because– well, you knew he was innocent (just as you said, but for different reasons). I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

Edit: X'd with Rikae.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oh my... Please reconsider Gwath. You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

Her distress YesterDay seemed both genuine and innocent. It is, of course, possible that she just did a really really good job of faking it, but I'll make my mind up about that as the Day progresses. The only thing that might convince me is the fact that Menel the Seer was quite adamant about her guilt. Maybe he dreamed about someone else, such as Sally, and just strongly suspected Rikae?

Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far. If they are wolves, then the most suspicious thing they've done was both voting to kill Macalaure...but, of course, most of us suspected him at some point yesterDay, so maybe it was a safe move?

Sally or A Little Green might be the third wolf. On the one hand, Sally, as Rikae pointed out, has acted funny enough to merit inspection. On the other hand, LG voted with Nerwen and Legate to kill Mac...which could be either a point for or against her, since one could argue that all three wolves wouldn't vote together. Or perhaps they would, because they knew we thought they wouldn't...? Bother.

It seems probably to me that Menel dreamed about Nogrod the first night, and so we should count him innocent.

Yeah, lotsa questions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Her distress YesterDay seemed both genuine and innocent. It is, of course, possible that she just did a really really good job of faking it, but I'll make my mind up about that as the Day progresses.

But I think it was quite genuine– see my comment:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

Yesterday it was more ambiguous, because we didn't know Menel's role. He went after her pretty heavily, so much so that I had it in mind that he was likely either the Seer or a wolf. My doubt over that is why I finally decided not to vote Rikae.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Nerwen and Legate seem the most wolfish to me, at the moment. They have played it pretty safe so far.

Playing it safe... well, I have been, yes. So have a lot of people. In this game, playing styles seem to be neatly divided between "creep-around-in-the-shadows" and "jump-up-and-down-yelling-for-attention". It's been very hard to get a grip on things.

As for Rikae – there always the chance that she's innocent, the victim of an unusual set of circumstances– including very odd conduct from the Seer– which has made her the perfect victim. But I'd say it's a small chance indeed.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

It seems probably to me that Menel dreamed about Nogrod the first night, and so we should count him innocent.

Don't count anyone as definitely innocent. One third of the surviving players are wolves, remember.

[Rikae]

Now Nerwen, no need to take that tone. After all, you're hardly in immediate danger of lynching today.

Still, if you go on coming up with absurdities, you might just change that...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, my dear, try– because you defended him so fiercely that everyone started to think there was something between you.

This, for instance. Nerwen suspected Mac, of course, before I defended him - in fact, it was primarily her baseless accusations I defended him against. But now, Mac was lynched because of me... that's some nice revisionist history there!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Once again, you (wilfully? wolfily?) twist my words. I never said we should focus solely on the Aganzir voters.

Actions speak louder than words, "my dear."

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I disagree. I think he looked innocent to you because– well, you knew he was innocent (just as you said, but for different reasons). I think you were using him as a "stalking horse", so to speak, and that you panicked when you realized you were talking your own neck into a noose.

What's a "stalking horse" anyway? I've already pointed out enough times why the points against Mac were weak. No point in arguing with someone who twists the words of everyone (how many times have we already seen this from Nerwen? She was doing it to Mac on day one.)I'll just point out to the innocent villagers the way Nerwen implies I defended Mac more strongly out of fear defending him would get me lynched!

Since I mentioned Nerwen/Legate/Sally, both the ladies have given me more reason to believe in it.

Originally Posted by Gwath

On the other hand, LG voted with Nerwen and Legate to kill Mac...which could be either a point for or against her, since one could argue that all three wolves wouldn't vote together. Or perhaps they would, because they knew we thought they wouldn't...? Bother.

It wouldn't be unheard of - I've seen it happen before. Still, it's a very bold move and not often done.

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nerwen suspected Mac, of course, before I defended him - in fact, it was primarily her baseless accusations I defended him against. But now, Mac was lynched because of me... that's some nice revisionist history there!

When did I say that was the only reason I suspected Mac?

Originally Posted by Rikae

What's a "stalking horse" anyway? I've already pointed out enough times why the points against Mac were weak. No point in arguing with someone who twists the words of everyone (how many times have we already seen this from Nerwen? She was doing it to Mac on day one.)I'll just point out to the innocent villagers the way Nerwen implies I defended Mac more strongly out of fear defending him would get me lynched!

By that time you couldn't back down without looking worse– also it was better for you to shift the attention back to Macalaure, rather than yourself. I could be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.

From the O.E.D:

stalking- horse n. 1. a horse or screen behind which a hunter is concealed. 2. a pretext concealing one's real actions or intentions.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By that time you couldn't back down without looking worse– also it was better for you to shift the attention back to Macalaure, rather than yourself. I could be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.

Sounds like a stretch to me.

What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

What do you think, Legate? Who should we lynch?

If you wish, I think Menel's suspicion on Rikae was based on his dreams, either on Night 1 or 2, and therefore, I think she is a Wolf. Of all the people, I am most convinced about her. Otherwise, there is Sally, whom I suspect still, also counting with the voting patterns: it was already mentioned here; Rikae could have voted her, yet chose not to. So that's also one more reason to lynch her, as I believe if Rikae is indeed a Wolf, Sally might be very likely as well.

Before anything happens, I won't be as fast to jump into conclusions who the last wolf might be (and that is, we don't even know about these two). But these two I find likely to be connected. Now, I can't say I would be 100% sure of anyone's innocence, as after reading toDay's posts, it may be almost either way. But all the lines go to Rikae, as I said, of all I am most convinced about her.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What an uneventful birthday.

Anyway, I'm still leery of voting Rikae becacuse of her reaction to the votes against Mac yesterday. To me, they seemed like something an innocent would say. But the antics of Menel as Seer are hard to ignore.

I'm wondering if maybe we shouldn't take a look at some of those people saying less than usual... Lily, McCaber, Gwathagor, for example.

Having brought up Lily, I'd like it noted that something about the back-and-forth between her and Nerwen on Day 1 seemed.... I don't know, choreographed? I could be completely wrong here, but that's just my impression. I'm getting the smallest similar vibe from Nerwen and Rikae today. Again, could be completely way of base, but I think a Nerwen/Lily/Rikae trio has possibilities. Since I have to vote right now, for fear of modfire, and there are many others who believe Rikae to be guilty, I'm going to place another option up. A "just in case something turns up", but also someone I'm a bit suspicious of.

++Nerwen

[Gwathagor]

Happy birthday Shastanis. Aman minyare! It's actually my dad's as well, as well as one of my friend's. Popular day.

I want to hear from more people...but, I suppose everyone will be on tonight while I am asleep.

[satansaloser2005]

Talk, talk, talk. All this talk and nothing really resolved. Pity.

First of all, a nice little short announcement/plea/whatever you want to call it. Please, please, PLEASE let's not have a repeat of the last two days. By this I mean let's not have people being added to the lynch list at *clears throat* a minute before deadline and half the village not even showing up to vote until a quarter til. I'm sorry, but that's just ridiculous.



I'm beginning to see the connection between Rikae and Nerwen more and more clearly now. They seem rivals, yes? But I think this isn't the case, far from it in fact. They've been on opposite ends for a while now (quite handy wolf strategy) and now I think one, if not both, of them are threatened with a noose and so it's in their best interest to push themselves even farther apart. See today's discussion. Back and forth, back and forth between those two. It just seems to staged. Or is that just me? Oh, and Shasta, thanks for pointing out the exchanges between Greenie and Nerwen as well. I'll have to look into them.


Apologies, but my posting's been interrupted. A friend of mine student teaches and needs some help putting together some valentines for her little miscreants....I mean, students. I'll be back later. Post lots and lots while I'm gone!


P.S. Happy birthday Shasta! I'm sorry it wasn't terribly eventful, but I hope you had a good day nonetheless, boring though it may be. Good night!

[McCaber]

I return from my evening prayers to find that my computer has reset itself.

Well, about my Macanalysis. Basically I thought that he was pushed by the village and misguided by wolves into a pretty bad position. It seemed to me as if Rikae manipulated him by taking his side and Nerwen led the attack from the mob.

I would speak more, but my studies are demanding. I will think, write, and report as time allows.

[Gwathagor]

I am about to retire for the evening. If anyone's interested in my current position, it is this: I will either vote for Legate or Nerwen. I think Rikae is innocent.

Let's get a wolf this time.

[satansaloser2005]

Terribly sorry, but my friend just left and I'm quite tired. I think I'll go to bed for now. Since that's the case, I also am not in the mood to make a snazzy long-winded post, so I'll just give some quick feedback and some feelings I'm getting from the last few posts.

I don't like Gwath's last few posts (save the one about Shasta's birthday). Up until today, he was holding his own and ready to vote for whoever he found guilty regardless of whether other people approved of his votes. Today, he specifically asks Legate, "Who do you think we should lynch?" I'm not (or at least don't think I am) suggesting a wolf pair here, but I think Gwath's sudden change into codependency should be noted. Also, I find it odd how he just dismisses Rikae in his last post without another thought, even though she's getting quite a lot of attention. It's almost as if he's trying to look too obvious, attempting to slip past the metal detectors by wearing an impermeable and steel-toed boots. I just don't like the way things are adding up here.

Okay, off to bed now. Sorry I've been so slack-adaisical toDay, but it's my busiest day of the week classwise so I've been preoccupied. I'll try to post more in the morning before I skedaddle to work, but alas it may only be another quick post and vote session. Sleep well, my fellow pesky Americans!